2012-13 Player of the Year Discussion Thread

[bondom34]

I think we should all feel a little silly about how we were talking about Curry earlier.

He's had 17 ppg on 35% from the field in the last 4 games. And the funny thing is, we still need to put him in our top fives simply because no one else is playing that great.

These Playoffs are crazy... So up and down. Parker is probably back in my list.

F it, I'm sticking with my top 3 and calling it a season.

[An Unbiased Fan]

I think we should all feel a little silly about how we were talking about Curry earlier.

He's had 17 ppg on 35% from the field in the last 4 games. And the funny thing is, we still need to put him in our top fives simply because no one else is playing that great.

These Playoffs are crazy... So up and down. Parker is probably back in my list.

Hmm, I had Kobe at #4, and Harden at #5 at the end of the season. Curry's 1st round play push him into my Top 5, and I will wait and see how this series plays out. Based on PS play, the only guy moving up has been Curry, which still shocks me.

Narigo's list of
1. LeBron James
2. Kevin Durant
3. Chris Paul
4. Kobe Bryant
5. Stephen Curry

may just be what end ups being my list, though I still think Curry is right there for #4. Again, this season reminds me of 2000, where Shaq ran away with it(like LBJ), TD misses PS(like Kobe), and the other Top 5 contenders don't exactly set the World on fire.

[MeloMIracle]

I think we should all feel a little silly about how we were talking about Curry earlier.

He's had 17 ppg on 35% from the field in the last 4 games. And the funny thing is, we still need to put him in our top fives simply because no one else is playing that great.

These Playoffs are crazy... So up and down. Parker is probably back in my list.

I don't think Curry or Melo should be penalized or even wade to be honest. These guys are obviously playing not at 100 percent but they are giving it their all despite that fact. Meanwhile KD's team has put him in positions to win games and he has come up small.

[TheChosen618]

It seems like the first 3 are relatively obvious and of obvious order, Lebron, Durant, and CP3. It was the same way last year too at least in my opinion.

The 4 and 5 is tough.

With Wade's injury, I don't think he'll be able to get to the top 5. I didn't even have him in my top 5 even in the regular season. He was too inconsistent although he was tremendous in the 2nd half of the season.

Harden was good in the middle of the stretch, but didn't play so well in the beginning of the season nor at the end of the season in the playoffs.

Curry seems to be coming back down to earth since he is playing the Spurs defense. It is just further proof that Curry's great playoff performance was due to playing the Nuggets not so great defense. I suspect that if the Warriors did lose that series though that Curry would be in everyone's top 5.

Melo has struggled in the post-season but it's largely due to the elite defenses he has played in the Pacers and Celtics. I think he might be in the top 5. I don't think he is a top 5 overall player in the league though, but we are just strictly talking about this season. This is largely due to the many injuries of players like Rose, Wade, Rondo, and Westbrook though, even Harden.

Marc Gasol is also a good mention. He was the DPOY and deserved to be so. He has been very good so far in the playoffs and is on his way to leading the Grizzlies to the WCF. I think the Grizz will get to the Finals, but we'll see how Marc does the rest of the way.

As of now....my updated 5 is this..

1. Lebron
2. Durant
3. Paul
4. Gasol
5. Melo

[therealbig3]

The All-Star game is a glorified exhibition game, and players are selected based on a lot of extraneous factors that have nothing to do with "how good are you"...no idea how anyone thinks that's actually a valuable tool in evaluating players.

iirc, didn't Deron himself say he didn't think he deserved to make the all-star game this year?

I gotta say, I was not expecting Deron's name to really come in here as a serious candidate from anyone. Maybe you can convince me, but this was not how I was thinking of his season at all.

Yes, but again, how do we separate player modesty from actual fact? Didn't Shaq also say that Hakeem dusted him in the 95 Finals? That was obviously not true either, it just "felt" that way to Shaq.

This is my view of D-Will not being selected: D-Will played well below the standard that everyone was used to seeing him, in his first full year on a playoff team post-Sloan, which brought up questions about him being a system PG that needed Sloan's system. He was also at the center of another coach getting fired, fair or not, and he was viewed as a coach killer by many.

What we do know now is that he's not a system PG, he just needed better health, and that Avery Johnson was truly horrible (everyone knew this, but they still acted like he was a great coach when he was fired for whatever reason...PJ isn't any better though).

And when we look at how he played pre-ASB, comparing him to his own standard is NOT measuring how good he actually is and is NOT the way the AS game rosters should be selected...he should have been compared to the other candidates...at the break, he was definitely better than Holiday, George, Deng, and Noah.

Finally, although he wasn't truly healthy after Avery Johnson was fired, and thus never got back to full form until post-ASB, I really hate it when people act like he was trash the ENTIRE first half of the season. He wasn't. He played like a top 5 PG after the coaching change until the ASB, but nobody noticed, because the first 2 months of the season (when he DID play like trash) brought down his average production. Then he exploded in the second half of the season, and it still didn't get the attention it deserved, because he played like maybe the best player in the league outside of LeBron and Durant.

In terms of why I think he's a serious candidate...I agree with ronnymac2 that he's a weak-to-decent candidate, and he wouldn't be close at all if the other candidates actually played well. But they're not. D-Will played a great 1st round (not flawless, not amazing, but plenty good enough for the Nets to win), Wade/Harden/Melo sucked. Aren't the playoffs heavily emphasized in this project?

And if you think I'm ignoring D-Will's poor start to the season, I'm not. I understand the box score isn't everything, but I'll get to +/- in a bit. Compare his box score production to Wade/Harden/Melo in the regular season for the ENTIRE season.

D-Will: 18.9 ppg, 7.7 apg, 3.0 rpg, 2.8 TOpg, 57.4% TS, 118 ORating (tied his career high)

Melo: 28.7 ppg, 2.6 apg, 6.9 rpg, 2.6 TOpg, 56.0% TS, 112 ORating

Harden: 25.9 ppg, 5.8 apg, 4.9 rpg, 3.8 TOpg, 60.0% TS, 116 ORating

Wade: 21.2 ppg, 5.1 apg, 5.0 rpg, 2.8 TOpg, 57.1% TS, 112 ORating

He was technically more efficient than all of them in terms of scoring (at lower volume, however) except for Harden, and when team pace and overall offense are taken into account, he was also more efficient than all of them, including Harden. I tend to look at TS% and ORating more when I'm comparing their production, because it's hard to compare just statistically between all of them, because D-Will plays a clearly different role than Harden/Melo/Wade.

Now +/-...the use of it is pretty inconsistent. I've seen people use it when it supports their argument very well when they compare two players, but then it's ignored when it's not convenient. For example, +/- has been used against Deron in the past, but it's been ignored all season with Harden.

+/- from BBR:

D-Will: +2.5
Melo: +5.7
Harden: +2.8
Wade: +12.8

D-Will and Harden are very similar, Melo is quite a bit better than both, Wade is way out ahead. But how much of the +/- is because of these individual players, and how much is a result of their teammates?

On/Off from BBR:

D-Will: +2.0
Melo: +3.4
Harden: -3.5
Wade: +9.4

Using on/off, Wade is still way out in front, but D-Will and Melo are much closer, and Harden is actually a decent negative.

Offensive On/Off from BBR:

D-Will: +6.6
Melo: +5.7
Harden: +0.6
Wade: +6.0

This is possibly even more telling, considering that all 4 of them are mainly offensive players. Clearly, D-Will suffers the largest dropoff in terms of overall on/off as a result of team defense getting a lot better without him. So is he that terrible of a defensive player, or is he a below average defender that tends to play a lot of minutes with other below average defenders (Lopez, Evans), and is there a team shift in strategy when he goes out of the game to focus more on defense and less on offense?

D-Will played for by far the worst coach of the 4 throughout the season (Avery and PJ were both terrible), and he played with a supporting cast that was also probably worse than any of the other 3 (definitely worse than Wade's and Harden's, I'd probably take Melo's supporting cast over D-Will's).

Overall, when you consider EVERYTHING together, not sure how D-Will is significantly far off at all, ESPECIALLY when you consider playoff performance. At absolute minimum, I think ranking him any lower than 12 is unwarranted (LeBron/Durant/CP3/Harden/Wade/Melo/Gasol/Curry/Parker/Duncan/KG). The objective evidence is there to keep him in the Harden/Melo/Wade category, and his playoff performance has been by far the best.

Anyway, that was way longer than I expected, but if you came into the project thinking Deron was incredibly far off from top 5 consideration to begin with, I don't expect to convince you. But I strongly suspect that you've just been sleeping on him since the first 2 months of the season and how he completely turned his year around. When I have time, I'd like to see how his improvement post-ASB affected the Nets performance as a team.

[Dr Positivity]

The all-star game selections this year were embarrassing, they mean little normally and nothing this season. It's not just that Marc and Steph missed, but LMA, Lee and Zbo made it instead...

[therealbig3]

When I have time, I'd like to see how D-Will's improvement post-ASB affected the Nets performance as a team.

Post-ASB, D-Will averaged 22.9 ppg, 8.0 apg, 2.7 TOpg, 62.2% TS, 127 ORating.

Post-ASB with D-Will, the Nets had a 2.62 SRS and a +5.3 offense, despite the fact that JJ missed a bunch of games and played poorly in the games he did play, and despite the fact that Lopez played a lot worse.

[ardee]

I think we should all feel a little silly about how we were talking about Curry earlier.

He's had 17 ppg on 35% from the field in the last 4 games. And the funny thing is, we still need to put him in our top fives simply because no one else is playing that great.

These Playoffs are crazy... So up and down. Parker is probably back in my list.

I don't think Curry or Melo should be penalized or even wade to be honest. These guys are obviously playing not at 100 percent but they are giving it their all despite that fact. Meanwhile KD's team has put him in positions to win games and he has come up small.

If you want to let injuries go then Kobe should be in the running too.

[An Unbiased Fan]

In terms of why I think he's a serious candidate...I agree with ronnymac2 that he's a weak-to-decent candidate, and he wouldn't be close at all if the other candidates actually played well. But they're not. D-Will played a great 1st round (not flawless, not amazing, but plenty good enough for the Nets to win), Wade/Harden/Melo sucked. Aren't the playoffs heavily emphasized in this project?

And if you think I'm ignoring D-Will's poor start to the season, I'm not. I understand the box score isn't everything, but I'll get to +/- in a bit. Compare his box score production to Wade/Harden/Melo in the regular season for the ENTIRE season.

D-Will: 18.9 ppg, 7.7 apg, 3.0 rpg, 2.8 TOpg, 57.4% TS, 118 ORating (tied his career high)

Melo: 28.7 ppg, 2.6 apg, 6.9 rpg, 2.6 TOpg, 56.0% TS, 112 ORating

Harden: 25.9 ppg, 5.8 apg, 4.9 rpg, 3.8 TOpg, 60.0% TS, 116 ORating

Wade: 21.2 ppg, 5.1 apg, 5.0 rpg, 2.8 TOpg, 57.1% TS, 112 ORating

He was technically more efficient than all of them in terms of scoring (at lower volume, however) except for Harden, and when team pace and overall offense are taken into account, he was also more efficient than all of them, including Harden. I tend to look at TS% and ORating more when I'm comparing their production, because it's hard to compare just statistically between all of them, because D-Will plays a clearly different role than Harden/Melo/Wade.

Yeh, I don't see how he was more efficienct than any of those guys. A 1.4% TS adv over Melo doesn't mean much due to the huge volume difference. Both Wade/Harden shot a higher TS% on higher volume.

Then, when you add in 2 guys who have a strong case for the #4/#5 spots, D-Will get's pushed out of the Top 10 altogether.

Curry: 22.9 ppg, 6.9 apg, 4.0 rpg, 3.1 TPpg, 58.9% TS

Kobe: 27.3 ppg, 6.0 apg, 5.6 rpg, 3.7 TOpg, 57.0% TS

Also, individual ORtg/DRtg isn't accurate. If we look at the Nets team ORtg, then we see 108.2. As a PG, DWill didn't lead the Nets to an elite offense, and his apg isn't all that spectacular either. I'm having a hard time see great impact from D-Will. He scored less than all these offensive players. He didn't lead his team to a great offense. His offensive production is lower than everyone else. And his team lost in the 1st round to a depleted Bulls squad.

Post-ASB, D-Will averaged 22.9 ppg, 8.0 apg, 2.7 TOpg, 62.2% TS, 127 ORating.

Post-ASB with D-Will, the Nets had a 2.62 SRS and a +5.3 offense, despite the fact that JJ missed a bunch of games and played poorly in the games he did play, and despite the fact that Lopez played a lot worse.

Curry: 26.0 ppg, 7.4 apg, 4.0 rpg, 62.0% TS

Kobe: 28.5 ppg, 7.0 apg, 6.1 rpg, 57.9% TS

The Post-ASB sample is only a third of the season, but even in that D-Will still falls short.

[Vinsanity420]

This is about the entire season, though, so Deron wouldn't make it. He won't surpass someone like James Harden, who's been doing his thing for the entire season.

Or even Melo, for that matter... though, Melo's scoring efficiency in the playoffs has been bad.

A 37% Usage Rate with an Offensive Rating of 97? Or scoring 25 points @ 48 TS%? Yikes.

[Colbinii]

The top 4 are obvious then you have 4-5 players that you could rank in any order, depending on how you weight your rankings.

The difference between CP3 and Parker is smaller than most of you think, and Parker was the 4th best player in the league by a LARGE margin imo.

Harden came up tiny in the playoffs like many thought. He doesn't have the complete game any of the players mentioned in the rankings have. I think that has to play a role aside from straight box scores.

[therealbig3]

Kobe has ZERO case for top 5. If you're physically incapable of playing in the playoffs, you just cannot be more valuable than players that can actually play in the playoffs.

And bringing up team results in an individual award is dumb. If you want to argue that other player's teams were better as a result of their top player being better, fine, but I have a really hard time seeing that. I'm seeing much larger differences between the Nets and Rockets/Heat/Knicks outside of the difference between Deron and Wade/Harden/Melo.

And Wade did not have a higher TS%, and like I said, a PG is expected to do different things than great scorers, so he won't be scoring as much.

This is about the entire season, though, so Deron wouldn't make it. He won't surpass someone like James Harden, who's been doing his thing for the entire season.

But there is heavy emphasis on the playoffs, and Deron played very well in the 1st round, while Harden and Melo and Wade have all played very poorly. I'm just asking for consistency, because this kind of argument has been used in the past for other players that played really well in the playoffs after an underwhelming regular season (CP3 in 2011).

And really, imagine if Deron didn't have those first 2 months of the season when he was very poor. Nobody would have an issue of me mentioning him right now. If those 2 months really matter so much...why not punish Harden for his last 2 months when he played pretty poorly? What about Melo when he went cold in the middle of the season? What about Wade when he had a poor start to the year just like D-Will? In fact, Wade's argument is the SAME as D-Will's. Poor start, incredible finish, and most were expecting him to carry that into the playoffs, but he hasn't.

Everyone has had poor stretches to their season, D-Will's just happened in the beginning of the season and everyone is using that to shape their impression of him for the entire season.

[therealbig3]

And to be clear, I don't have D-Will top 5, and I won't be voting for him. I have the top 3 that everyone else has, Curry at 4, and then Gasol pretty clearly at 5. I'm giving a slight edge to D-Will over Wade/Harden/Melo as of right now though, because of the massive difference in postseason performance.

If you don't see Gasol as this caliber player though, I really don't see why D-Will wouldn't be on your mind right now. Were his first 2 months that damning?

[CBA]

Comparing Deron's entire season with Harden's "poor" last two months of the season, Harden still put up better stats (26/6/5) on better efficiency (60%TS) on a better team (+4SRS). I'm sure I could do the same exercise for Melo and Wade.

You keep harping on these contracted sample of games, but the fact is people are using the entire season to form their impression of Deron and he just wasn't all that impressive.

Also, you're pretending that Deron's performance (21/8/3/57TS%) in a losing effort against a mediocre and injury decimated underdog was heroic when in fact it was hardly more impressive than Harden's "very poor" performance (26/7/5/55TS%) against a much better team. Which is odd.

[therealbig3]

You're completely avoiding everything I'm pointing out and clinging to the same bad argument.

Deron's performance against the Bulls WAS much better than Harden's. Harden had several teammates step up and play well against the Thunder, and Westbrook wasn't there for half the series. Harden had one explosive game, and then was really bad the rest of the time. He turned it over a TON as well. As someone else pointed out, Harden seems to be the highest variance star by far, which isn't really ideal. Deron, OTOH, had 2 bad games and then played very well in the other 5 games. He took care of the ball and he scored efficiently. And the context is important: he played most of his minutes with two negative impact offensive players, which the Bulls loved to see, because they would ignore them and throw everything at D-Will, which seriously limited what he could do, especially since no one else was doing much of anything. That's why what seems like only slightly better production was actually much more impressive. The context to those stats is thus very important.

19/8/3 with better efficiency (why is better passing and less TOs not part of efficiency?) is comparable to 26/6/5. Systematic differences affect box score production as well. Their offensive production was quite similar, as you can see from ORating. The difference in ORating is also extremely apparent in their respective playoff series.

I'm also confused as to the relevancy of "better team"...I thought it was quite obvious that Harden's teammates and coaching are far better than Deron's. How does that prove a difference between the two of them?

[An Unbiased Fan]

Kobe has ZERO case for top 5. If you're physically incapable of playing in the playoffs, you just cannot be more valuable than players that can actually play in the playoffs.

Huh? Garnett was #3 in 2005, and his team didn't even make the playoffs. Kobe during the RS was #4 for me, and I don't think Melo, Wade, Harden, did anything to pass him. I think Curry has a case, though he's cooled off.

And bringing up team results in an individual award is dumb. If you want to argue that other player's teams were better as a result of their top player being better, fine, but I have a really hard time seeing that. I'm seeing much larger differences between the Nets and Rockets/Heat/Knicks outside of the difference between Deron and Wade/Harden/Melo.

No, I brought up team impact, which is very relevant. As a PG, Deron didn't lead the Nets to some great offense, and his apg production was nothing special. The other guys had superior production/impact.

And Wade did not have a higher TS%, and like I said, a PG is expected to do different things than great scorers, so he won't be scoring as much.

Wade had a higher volume, and as a PG/Floor Leader, Deron was very unremarkable.

But there is heavy emphasis on the playoffs, and Deron played very well in the 1st round, while Harden and Melo and Wade have all played very poorly. I'm just asking for consistency, because this kind of argument has been used in the past for other players that played really well in the playoffs after an underwhelming regular season (CP3 in 2011).

This makes no sense. Deron didn't play really well, in fact he blew in game 2 & 3 where Brooklyn fell behind in that series. His team lost to a deplete Bulls squad, despite having HCA and health on their side.

One decent series doesn't make his mediocre regular season into Top 5 caliber. He's not even Top 10.

And really, imagine if Deron didn't have those first 2 months of the season when he was very poor. Nobody would have an issue of me mentioning him right now. If those 2 months really matter so much...why not punish Harden for his last 2 months when he played pretty poorly? What about Melo when he went cold in the middle of the season? What about Wade when he had a poor start to the year just like D-Will? In fact, Wade's argument is the SAME as D-Will's. Poor start, incredible finish, and most were expecting him to carry that into the playoffs, but he hasn't.

His season was the worst of the guys mentioned, and both Kobe/Curry were better after the ASB than him. He has zero case.

[GSP]

Its too bad this is such a weak year after Lebron. A choke like Kd in the last 2 games and elimination game would hurt him bad in most other years

[Doctor MJ]

I think we should all feel a little silly about how we were talking about Curry earlier.

He's had 17 ppg on 35% from the field in the last 4 games. And the funny thing is, we still need to put him in our top fives simply because no one else is playing that great.

These Playoffs are crazy... So up and down. Parker is probably back in my list.

While there's no doubt that the hype on Curry went out of control, for the most part to me the only reason Curry's getting the consideration he is in this project is that the competition is so damn weak. After Paul at #3, I really am at a loss. No one seems worthy.

[GSP]

How do yall compare Cp3s series with Kds?

[Mutnt]

How do yall compare Cp3s series with Kds?

Against the Grizzlies? I'd probably go with CP3. He was scoring way better in those 6 games versus one of the best defensive teams in the league than he did on average in the RS, so that's a surprise. His TO numbers were excellent too. Assists were kind of low, but Clippers did much better offensively than the Thunder. I'll give Durant credit though, he had to adjust playing without Westbrook, who is a high usage player and a big part of how the Thunder and himself play.