RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #9 (Kevin Garnett)

[One_and_Done]

I'd encourage others to check these counts.

[iggymcfrack]

When I checked earlier I had Magic up 1 on 1st place votes with the 2 Curry votes for Magic and the Kobe vote for KG. That would leave Magic up 1 now which is I think where we’re at. Obviously we’re going to need some close counting to be sure though. It’s fun when it’s so close we’re not sure anyway.

[ShaqAttac]

When I checked earlier I had Magic up 1 on 1st place votes with the 2 Curry votes for Magic and the Kobe vote for KG. That would leave Magic up 1 now which is I think where we’re at. Obviously we’re going to need some close counting to be sure though. It’s fun when it’s so close we’re not sure anyway.

Anything is possible?

[PigsOnTheWing]

It's possible people switched. Either way, I'd suggest a very careful recount by others to check.

I also only see two votes for Steph. But I don't know when you did your count, so maybe someone did change. I just did my count 30 minutes ago.

BTW, it says "EST" in the thread title, so the deadline is already passed(though Doc said in an earlier thread votes will still count up until he tallies).

Two potentially confusing factors for counting:
-> Ceoofkobefans added KG as an alternate but it's not bolded
-> i do not think gibson is a registered voter or was necessarily trying to vote

Since KG/MAGIC are the two candidates here I'll just list their votes:

KG -> Tleros, Ceoofkobefans, Jpeelman, Dray, shaqa, ohayo, falco, positivity, hbk, iggy, hcl, eminence (12)

Magic -> fp4, oad, moonbeam, doc mj, pen, trex, aenigma, led zepp, rk, lessthanjake, clyde (11)

Oldschoolbulls vote would tie if counted.

For those curious, Magic had leads of 6-1, 7-2, and 8-3. Gonna guess a KG win here would be an all-tiem comeback(as well as a big upset )

Fwiw, I wanted to read some argumentations and figured I could also count the votes while I was at it and this tally is what I got as well.

23 votes, 11-9 lead for Garnett, 1 secondary for Garnett and 2 for Magic resulting in a 12-11 lead for KG as of now. I haven't counted OldSchoolNoBull's vote since he's not part of the voting pool; the way Doc decides to handle that vote might be the decider here.

[Doctor MJ]

Ooh, exciting to see how this turns out.

Induction Vote 1 tally:

Magic - 10 (OaD, Moonbeam, trex, rk, ZPage, f4p, Doc, Clyde, OSNB, AEnigma)
KG - 11 (trelos, Ohayo, hcl, ShaqA, iggy, falco, Dr P, eminence, HBK, speel, DGold)
Curry - 2 (ltj, beast)
Kobe - 1 (ceoofk)

No majority, going to 2nd vote tally:

Magic - 2 (ltj, Magic)
KG - 1 (ceoofk)

My account agrees with others, we're at an 11-11 deadlock.

Here's the next step: I'm going to extend the deadline one more day, and in my next post I'm going to quote anyone I don't have votes for who are on my voter list.

If we're still tied after another day, I will consider a further extension if that seems plausible.

My next step after that is to create a new thread where any poster vote in a poll, and to let it run for a day.

So, no one Inducted at this time.

Nomination vote:

Dirk - 2 (OaD, Dr P)
Robinson - 2 (trelos, iggy)
Mikan - 8 (Moonbeam, AEnigma, Ohayo, beast, hcl, ShaqA, f4p, eminence)
Malone - 2 (trex, ceoofk)
Moses - 1 (ltj)
West - 3 (rk, ZPage, speel)
Oscar - 2 (Doc, HBK)

George Mikan is added to Nominee list.

[Doctor MJ]

Gentleman, we need your deciding votes! I'm extending the deadline until tonight.

Your mission is to choose between Magic Johnson and Kevin Garnett. Winner takes the #9 spot.

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[eminence]

Hell yeah Big George

[HeartBreakKid]

MORTAL KOMBAT!!!!!!!!!!

[AEnigma]

Ooh, exciting to see how this turns out.

Induction Vote 1 tally:

Magic - 9 (OaD, Moonbeam, trex, rk, ZPage, f4p, Doc, Clyde, OSNB)
KG - 10 (trelos, Ohayo, hcl, ShaqA, iggy, falco, Dr P, eminence, HBK, speel)

Immediately I see you missed my vote for Magic and DraymonGold’s vote for Garnett. Of course nothing changes if those were the only two missed.

[Colbinii]

There is a common down-playing of Garnett's impact profile [RAPM, +/-, DARKO, ect], whether it be explained away by poor teammates [KG did have poor teammates for a majority of his Prime] or poor positional back-ups [KG did have relatively weak rosters and often times poor benches]. Impact metrics are a tool to support why Player A [In this case KG] should be ranked in this project and are a ledge of evidence. Downplaying their importance or looking through the lens of differing tools to come to your own player evaluation criteria is anything but wrong.

My main point of contention for KG is less about his gaudy impact metrics, which are already a feather in the cap for Garnett, and instead a glimpse into simple box-score measurements and comparisons complimented with understanding just how effective and vast KG's defensive skill-set was.

As we begin to look at the defensive end of the ball, the first thing I would like to point out is how the term versatility sells KG short as a defender. The meaning of Versatility is competent or suitable for many things--but Garnett was anything from competent or suitable as a defender--Garnett was elite and all-time great for many things defensively. Something Competent and Suitable is how I would describe a jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none, but Garnett was a Master-of-All.

Comparing Garnett's defensive Metrics while on the court to Tim Duncan [#5 in this project], the numbers are eerily similar.

Shooting percentage of opponents within 5 feet of the rim against Kevin Garnett from 97-10:

1997: 51.3% on 26.1 attempts/game
1998: 58.2% on 24.4 attempts/game
1999: 58.8% on 20.6 attempts/game
2000: 58.0% on 21.5 attempts/game
2001: 58.0% on 22.5 attempts/game
2002: 58.2% on 20.0 attempts/game
2003: 58.1% on 20.9 attempts/game
2004: 53.7% on 20.7 attempts/game
2005: 56.7% on 22.0 attempts/game
2006: 55.1% on 23.4 attempts/game
2007: 60.1% on 22.2 attempts/game
2008: 55.5% on 16.6 attempts/game
2009: 54.4% on 17.4 attempts/game
2010: 56.5% on 17.1 attempts/game

There is a clear correlation between the amount of attempts Garnett was forced to stop at the rim and how good his fellow perimeter defenders were. When he had the likes of Sam Cassell, Latrell Sprewell, Troy Hudson, and Wally Szczerbiak defending the perimeter, he was facing many more shots at the rim. When Garnett had players like Rajon Rondo, Paul Pierce, and Tony Allen, the amount of attempts defended within 5 feet drops substantially. The shots Garnett was defending while playing with mediocre to poor defenders were likely more difficult to defend as well.

When we compare these to Tim Duncan, he was between 49% and 52% when he played next to David Robinson. Without David Robinson, he was between 53% and 56%, in line with what Garnett played with in Boston and his peak season in 2004. Dwight Howard, from 07-11, was between 55% and 59% in each of those seasons.

As we circle back to Garnett's versatility, he was every bit as good of a rim protector as Dwight Howard.

Timberwolves/Celtics Defensive Rating with Kevin Garnett On/Off (League Rank):
2001: 102.9 (14th), 107.2 (27th)
2002: 104.2 (14th), 108.6 (Last)
2003: 102.4 (10th), 110.9 (Last)
2004: 98.5 (5th), 104.6 (20th)
2005: 106.6 (14th) , 105.3 (12th)
2006: 104.7 (11th), 105.5 (14th)
2007: 106.2 (13th), 112.5 (Last)
2008: 97.3 (1st), 101.4 (1st)
2009: 98.6 (1st), 105.8 (7th)
2010: 102.1 (1st), 106.7 (14th)
2011: 98.1 (1st), 104.4 (7th)

Garnett shows the ability to make absolutely terrible defensive players and personnel into average defensive teams. He has shown the ability to make average defensive players and personnel into very good defenses. Last, Garnett has shown that he can take already very good defenses and make them all-time great.

Great Floor raiser? Check
Great Ceiling raiser? Check

Here is a graph depicting the same information above.




Next Up: Defensive Switchability

Article #1

Below we see Garnett stay, stride for stride, with 2002 Kobe Bryant [when he was near his peak Athleticism]

Kobe Bryant flies by Anthony Peeler as he brings the ball to half-court.



Garnett picks up Bryant, forcing him inside to the help defense (Rasho Nesterovic)



Garnett has Kobe where he wants him, trying to finish over Rasho Nesterovic while being on Kobe's blind side



Garnett's length and skill allows him to block Bryant



Article #2

Garnett starts on Robert Horry. An interesting part of this play is before Horry was at the top of the key, he was on the elbow. Garnett forced him back that far as he attempted to post up and receive an entry pass from the wing.



Garnett follows the entry pass seamlessly and begins to rotate onto Shaq while the ball is still in the air.



By the time Shaq takes one dribble, Garnett is already in position for a block attempt.



Garnett is able to block Shaq from behind without a foul. The block deflects off the backboard and right into a Timberwolves hands. It was likely easier for Garnett to block the shot to the sideline and out of bounds, but his ability to control his blocks is once again at the forefront.



As we can see, we see Garnett switching onto two players--Prime Kobe Bryant and Prime Shaquille O'Neal. The list of players who could do this is something you could count on one hand.

Next Up: Offensive Play Finishing

Here are Kevin Garnett's scoring numbers "at the rim" from 2001 - 2011 (%Assisted):

2001: 67.7% on 356 attempts (66%)
2002: 65.9% on 311 attempts (50.7%)
2003: 70.9% on 337 attempts (58.2%)
2004: 67.9% on 452 attempts (63.8%)
2005: 65.2% on 374 attempts (64.3%)
2006: 66.8% on 313 attempts (59.8%)
2007: 64.3% on 283 attempts (56%)
2008: 70.2% on 339 attempts (71.8%)
2009: 76.7% on 180 attempts (85.5%)
2010: 65.3% on 300 attempts (83.2%)
2011: 73.2% on 247 attempts (78.9%)

How does Duncan compare?

2001: 69.1% on 453 attempts (53.7%)
2002: 71.2% on 518 attempts (51.5%)
2003: 68.6% on 535 attempts (51.0%)
2004: Did not load
2005: 67.3% on 431 attempts (57.2%)
2006: 72.7% on 461 attempts (54.6%)
2007: 69.9% on 568 attempts (53.9%)
2008: 68% on 506 attempts (58.4%)
2009: 64.1% on 370 attempts (62%)
2010: 68.6% on 382 attempts (66%)

These numbers are similar--with Duncan finishing around the rim more [High Volume] as Garnett was playing further away from the basket more often [Providing spacing, allowing cutters and other players to finish around the rim].

Here are Kevin Garnett's scoring numbers "10-16 feet" and below them "16 to <3-pt" from 2001 - 2011 (%Assisted):

2001: 44.4% on 306 attempts (52.2%)
2002: 48.1% on 314 attempts (54.3%)
2003: 49.6% on 413 attempts (56.6%)
2004: 47.3% on 476 attempts (53.3%)
2005: 42.9% on 361 attempts (67.1%)
2006: 51.1% on 284 attempts (50.3%)
2007: 43.9% on 328 attempts (51.4%)
2008: 48.7% on 302 attempts (43.5%)
2009: 44.1% on 136 attempts (48.3%)
2010: 39.8% on 161 attempts (51.6%)
2011: 43.8% on 137 attempts (60%)


2001: 41.5% on 407 attempts (73.4%)
2002: 40.0% on 395 attempts (72.2%)
2003: 46.6% on 459 attempts (70.1%)
2004: 43.3% on 614 attempts (81.6%)
2005: 46.5% on 318 attempts (83.1%)
2006: 46.4% on 358 attempts (80.1%)
2007: 42.3% on 423 attempts (74.9%)
2008: 47.2% on 511 attempts (89.6%)
2009: 44.1% on 279 attempts (93.5%)
2010: 47.6% on 401 attempts (90.6%)
2011: 46.2% on 355 attempts (92.1%)

How does Dirk Nowitzki compare?

2001: 46.8% on 250 attempts (57.3%)
2002: 42.9% on 226 attempts (54.6%)
2003: 50.5% on 376 attempts (46.3%)
2004: 46.0% on 276 attempts (52.0%)
2005: 43.6% on 349 attempts (45.4%)
2006: 48.4% on 516 attempts (35.2%)
2007: 49.3% on 363 attempts (36.9%)
2008: 48.1% on 370 attempts (43.3%)
2009: 49.0% on 567 attempts (41.0%)
2010: 45.6% on 472 attempts (46.5%)
2011: 49.2% on 429 attempts (42.7%)


2001: 44.9% on 292 attempts (73.3%)
2002: 49.0% on 355 attempts (75.9%)
2003: 40.4% on 532 attempts (68.4%)
2004: 46.6% on 487 attempts (75.3%)
2005: 41.6% on 630 attempts (59.2%)
2006: 47.2% on 606 attempts (59.4%)
2007: 50.0% on 504 attempts (64.7%)
2008: 49.5% on 412 attempts (72.5%)
2009: 47.9% on 603 attempts (73.7%)
2010: 46.9% on 605 attempts (79.6%)
2011: 51.9% on 489 attempts (84.3%)

Garnett is actually better from mid-range from 01-05, and it isn't until 2009 where Dirk has a clear edge in terms of mid-range scoring. Now, my point here is to show just how close they are in terms of mid-range shooters, like I did with Garnett and Duncan for at-rim scoring. If we are looking at it like this, we see that Kevin Garnett is a clearly superior playmaker/passer to both these bigs, and is a comparable scorer to both these all-time greats.

What does this say about Garnett's Offense as a whole?

A ton.

If we look at Kevin Garnett's on/off for offensive through his career, we can see just how much his passing, playmaking, and scoring arsenal effect his team.

Timberwolves/Celtics Offensive Rating with Kevin Garnett On/Off (League Rank):

2001: 106.2 (8th), 101.7 (18th)
2002: 110 (2nd), 104.4 (15th)
2003: 108.5 (3rd), 93.4 (2nd to Last)
2004: 108.3 (3rd), 93.8 (Last)
2005: 108.4 (6th), 106.3 (14th)
2006: 105.3 (18th) , 95.2 (Last)
2007: 105.7 (16th), 97.3 (Last)
2008: 113.6 (2nd), 105.9 (21st)
2009: 112.8 (3rd), 109.4 (10th)
2010: 109.8 (10th), 106.7 (19th)
2011: 111.1 (6th), 101.3 (Last)

As we see here, Garnett's impact on offense is immense (just like his defense). Again, he is taking "awful" supporting offensive casts and making them into very good to great offenses (consistently top 5). At the same time, he is taking average offensive supporting casts and turning them into great offenses.

Overall, we have a player who can finish like Duncan, shoot like Dirk and defend the rim like Dwight. Pretty good player, certainly Top 10 and is my vote for #9.

1. Kevin Garnett
2. Magic Johnson

Nominate: Dirk Nowitzki

[trex_8063]

Ooh, exciting to see how this turns out.

Induction Vote 1 tally:

Magic - 9 (OaD, Moonbeam, trex, rk, ZPage, f4p, Doc, Clyde, OSNB)
KG - 10 (trelos, Ohayo, hcl, ShaqA, iggy, falco, Dr P, eminence, HBK, speel)

Immediately I see you missed my vote for Magic and DraymonGold’s vote for Garnett. Of course nothing changes if those were the only two missed.

I was going to say the same thing. I just counted it 11-10 in favour of KG. I concur the alternate votes are 2-1 in Magic's favour (still resulting in stalemate 12-12).

I concur Mikan ran away with the noms; my counts:
Mikan - 8
West - 3
Dirk - 2
K.Malone - 2
Oscar - 2
Robinson - 2
Moses - 1
(4 people did not list a nomination that I saw)

[Doctor MJ]

Ooh, exciting to see how this turns out.

Induction Vote 1 tally:

Magic - 9 (OaD, Moonbeam, trex, rk, ZPage, f4p, Doc, Clyde, OSNB)
KG - 10 (trelos, Ohayo, hcl, ShaqA, iggy, falco, Dr P, eminence, HBK, speel)

Immediately I see you missed my vote for Magic and DraymonGold’s vote for Garnett. Of course nothing changes if those were the only two missed.

Huh. I'm sorry about that AEnigma. Thank you for your patience.

[Fundamentals21]

Nice, you just woke me up. So the project went live, I need to read a bit. Doing a real quick post -

KG’s actual projected SRS win total, when healthy. Taking a couple number from Backpicks (Elgee).

45+
40+
40+
50+
45+
50+

For a talent check on the Timberwolves era, includes guys like Troy Hudson, Rashad McCants, Wright, etc. When I say embarrassing, you can clearly see them at a level of the current day Pistons, somewhere around a 17 W ball club. A lot of these simply can’t suit up.

Most of his teammates were embarrassing, and that pretty much explains why Minnesota had such a low win total.

Once KG landed to Boston, Boston’sprojected SRS 08-12

60+
60+
50+
50+
50+

Kg would pretty much weed through tough matchups to the finals and make Boston relevant even in his post prime era. This tells me KG would be a bit like Tim Duncan when gifted with a good ballclub.

Another thought, as a player, Garnett’s skillset measured extremely high. He was consistently thought to be an ATG. Even when you check out his passing rates, they seem to be in extremely impressive, almost like a 6 assist guard type of guy.

Numbers like VORP and Rebounding have KG clearly in the Top 10.

I would say Garnett’s main advantage of Magic truly is defense. Garnett’s defensive +/-’s are always at the top, and accolades wise, KG was thought to be a clear DPOY candidate. There are only a few legends in the individual D-Rating groups that can have a case over KG.

Vote: Kevin Garnett

Nominate: Dirk Nowitzki

[rk2023]

Vote for #9 - Magic Johnson
Nomination - Jerry West (explained in hyperlink below)

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2310981&p=107809971#p107809971

Magic:
When prepping and going through analyses of all of the pantheon before this project, I was not only shocked to see Magic comfortably land the 9 spot on my list (compared to the perimeter players one would expect - as well as Garnett) but also punch above his longevity to the point where he stacked up well side-by-side to Duncan, Shaq, and Wilt. I came to such a conclusion based on the prime consistency and unparalleled [in some essence] offensive acumen brought to the table by Magic - where I'm not surprised and can certainly commend those whom have pushed for Magic at a higher spot than this (eg. Doc, OldSchoolNoBull, f4p). I'll quote a few posts that struck me as insightful in these regards and that I felt did very well providing a holistic analysis of Johnson. Both are pretty granular (thus longer posts), and provide a very good overview - with the main-takeaway being that the box-score (whether advanced or at face value) and pragmatic team evidence in both statistical ratings and engining a dynasty regard Magic very highly. Some more measures of impact and goodness yield the same approach, for example:

Spoiler:

- 9 seasons and PS campaigns in the 100th percentile in Thinking Basketball's Passer Rating
- Monster grades in Jacobs' historical RAPM for 1985 & 88 (Am aware this is a very small sample and only a 1 year RAPM sample)
- Pretty solid on-court track record (atl at glance) from Jacobs' career tracking of Magic's +/-. Checks out given the Lakers' impressive team data in the Magic era. https://squared2020.com/2022/07/22/some-magic-johnson-plus-minus-numbers/
- Consistently high WOWY scores, regardless of statistical method, in Moonbeam's modeling
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?p=107785464#p107785464
- Furthermore, Lakers PS rORTG(s) in 3 year increments from when Magic "took the reigns" in 1984 (so starting with 1984-86):
8.0, 9.1, 8.3, 9.0, 8.2, 7.2

.

Spoiler:

Magic is arguably the greatest combination of scoring and playmaking the game has ever seen. For his career in the regular season, Magic averaged:

19.5ppg and 11.2apg on +7.2 rTS in 13 seasons(this includes 1996)
25.4pp100 and 14.5ap100

(At this point I want to say that I fully realize that there's more to playmaking impact than just looking at assists; it's just that it usually involves metrics that don't exist for Magic(or Oscar or the first two-thirds of Stockton's career, two players I'm going to be looking at, for that matter), so I'm just using assists as quick point of comparison).

Compare that to some others in the scoring+playmaking conversation...

LeBron: 27.2ppg and 7.3apg on +4.6 rTS in 20 seasons
LeBron: 36.8pp100 and 10.1ap100

Oscar: 25.7ppg and 9.5apg on +6.8 rTS in 14 seasons
(no Per 100 numbers available)

Oscar(adjusted for pace): 21.9ppg and 8.1apg on +6.8 rTS in 14 seasons

So, Magic and Oscar are pretty close as scorers, in both volume and efficiency, but Magic still has a big playmaking advantage.

Harden: 24.7ppg and 7apg on +5.7 rTS in 14 seasons
35.1pp100 and 10ap100

Steph: 24.6ppg on 6.5apg on +7 rTS in 14 seasons
34.9pp100 and 9.2ap100

As you'd expect, Steph has the best overall volume+efficiency combination as a scorer, but his assists numbers fall way short.

Nash: 14.3ppg and 8.5apg on +6 rTS(though he had two dramatic outlier years - the 99 lockout season and his final season, and if you removes those, it's +7.3 rTS) in 18 seasons
23.3pp100 and 13.8ap100

Nash falls short on the per game numbers, though it's certainly closer by Per 100...in fact there, Nash gets closer than just about anyone to Magic.

Stockton: 13.1ppg and 10.5apg on 7.3 rTS in 19 seasons.
21pp100 and 16.8ap100

Very similar to Nash, and again, by straight per-game numbers, his points are below, but like Nash, his Per 100 is comparable with Stockton in fact being the only one top Magic in ap100.

Paul: 17.9ppg and 9.5apg on +3.2 rTS
26.7p100 and 14.1ap00

CP3's per-game numbers are fairly comparable, and his Per 100 numbers even moreso, much like Nash and Stockton, but his rTS is well below anyone else I've looked at here, and his constant injury issues don't help his case either.

Here's how these players rank in career TS Add:

Oscar: 212.7(pace adjusted)
Steph: 187.1
Magic(w/1996 removed): 170.4
Harden 169.4
Magic: 161.4
LeBron: 142.0
Stockton: 129.8
Nash: 118.2
CP3: 72.3

The broad point is that among these types of players, Magic ranks near the top as a scorer(with only Oscar and Steph clearly ahead by TS Add) and pretty much at the top as an assist-maker on a per-game basis(though Stockton and Nash have a strong Per 100 case there). His offensive impact, when looking at the volume and efficiency of his scoring combined with the volume and consistency of his playmaking, is GOAT tier. To the point where I'm not sure how much his defensive deficiencies matter.

In terms of actual impact signals, I look at two.

One, in his second season, 1980-81, he played only 37 games. The Lakers' overall SRS that year was 3.27. By my calculations, their SRS in the 37 games Magic played was 6.30.

Two, in 1990-91, the Lakers had a 6.73 SRS and +7.1 Net Rtg. Following Magic's retirement, in 1991-92, they had a -0.95 SRS and -1.2 Net Rtg. Now, I acknowledge that James Worthy also missed 28 games and that Vlade Divac also missed 46 games that season, and I'm sure that contributed to the team's precipitous fall, but I have to think Magic's absence was the biggest factor. Frankly, the following season, 1992-93, when Worthy and Divac were healthy, the numbers were even worse - -1.2 SRS and -1.3 Net Rtg.

(And FWIW, they fell from #5 in Def Rtg in 91 to #17 in 92 and #16 in 93, make of that what you will).

I said two, but I thought of a couple more that are less definitive imo but still worth mentioning. The 1989 Lakers swept through the playoffs, didn't lose a single game, and then got swept in the Finals after Magic went down. I know, Byron Scott was also out, and Magic in fact played the first game and most of the second game they lost. Still something to consider.

The 1996 Lakers' SRS was 4.21 but, by my calculations, their SRS in the 32 games Magic played was 5.81(and none of the other major pieces of that team missed any significant amount of time). Maybe it doesn't mean much, but again, worth mentioning.

Finally, with regards to his (lack of) longevity:

Look, I'm not a big longevity guy to begin with. But to hold it against a guy who was literally forced into his retirement seems particularly wrong-headed to me.

First off, compare his numbers from 1986-87 - usually held as his peak year - and 1990-91 - his last year:

1986-87: 23.9ppg, 12.2apg, 6.3rpg on +6.4 rTS, 9.4 BPM, .263 WS/48 in 36.3mpg over 80 games
1990-91: 19.4ppg, 12.5apg, 7.0rpg on +8.9 rTS, 9.0 BPM, .251 WS/48 in 37.1mpg over 79 games

Not a whole heck of a lot of drop there. You commonly hear this argument(usually from people trying to discredit MJ) that Magic was old or washed-up or done in 1991, and it's just nonsense. Magic was All-NBA 1st Team and #2 in MVP voting that year behind MJ, and I showed above what happened to that Lakers team the following two seasons after he retired.

He never wanted to retire, he had to. Then he came back, won the 1992 ASG MVP, played well for the Dream Team that summer, thought people were ready to accept him, launched a comeback in the preseason that fall, and was forced out AGAIN.

When he made an ill-advised attempt at coaching in 1994, it was quite obviously the decision of a man who desperately wanted to still be in the league.

And when he finally did come back in 1996, guys like Ceballos and Van Exel were acting like punks, giving him attitude, and just generally disrespecting him(while he was putting up pretty damn decent numbers for a 36 year old who hadn't played in 3.5 years[14.6ppg, 6.9apg, 5.7rpg on +7 rTS, 5.2 BPM, .181 WS/48 in 29.9mpg over 32 games], suggesting he would've been productive into the mid-90s if he'd had the chance), so it's no wonder he didn't come back for 96-97.

His body didn't break down. He didn't burn out. He was forced out. To hold it against him is in a maddening injustice to me.


He was the heart and soul of one of the three greatest dynasties in NBA history.

.

Spoiler:

Magic vs Steph

I'll start this off with some excerpts from the skillset analysis me and blackmill did(and I presented chunks of for the Kareem thread). Some of you may have see this before, but for posterity...

"Making teammates better" Tiers
[spoiler]

This is an interesting way to break things down though I think we can add some levels here(this is somewhat tangential to this discussion but may as well)

Also think we can add "play-calling"/"running the offense" to shift "Playmaking" to "making teammates better".

I think the bottom-level is when your play-making/ball-handling is an active detriment to your ability to generate scoring oppurtunities for yourself(at the high-end of this is Durant, low-end of this might be Davis).

I think a tier up we get players who aren't really able to create a bunch but have suffecient skill here that they are not that dependent on teammates to generate scoring oppurtunities for themselves(Kawhi)

Tier two we get players who, with the right pieces, can leverage their scoring gravity towards creating for others(Kareem as you allude to may be the best of this archtype since he really just needs "functional" help here)

Tier three guys are players who can function as primary ball-handlers and therefore automatically will generate for their teammates offensively(At the high end you have Jordan/Curry, lower end you get someone like Giannis)

And then I think Tier four are guys who not only generate oppurtunities with their gravity but effectively leaverage their teammates and their own abilities to not only generate potential oppurtunities, but then select/generate the best possible ones(low-end might be CP3, mid might be lebron/jokic, highest end might be magic/nash).

In this framework, Magic grades a tier higher than Steph based on two alleged advantages;
-> The ability to leverage/organize his teammates as a floor-general
-> The efficiency of his creation

I don't think most readers here will contest the first one as being true. But the second might sound a bit wonky. So let's elaborate a little:

There is a bit of a fallacy I think where people look at raw assist totals, raw creation counts, or box-oc and pretend volume is everything. But it's not just about what you create. It's also about the quality of what you're creating AND how much you're leaving on the table with suboptimal decisions. Players on this tier have better discernable offensive "lift" than players the tier below, and often this is blamed entirely or pre-dominantly on "this is just because of who their teammates are", but I actually think the real source of this offensive advantage is the "quality" of what they're creating(and some of the backseat coaching stuff has an off-court effect that can't be tracked via impact stuff)

We'll get to "discernible left" after but let's start with some granular analysis. First up, Jordan:

Spoiler:

Much like we look at scoring volume(creation) and efficiency(passer-rating), I would like you to look at both when interpreting these screencaps. His passer-rating peaks at 8.0 in 88 and 95 but his creation is substantially lower. His volume peaks at 16 in 1989 but his passer-rating falls. And then in the subsequent years(largely considered his "best"), his volume and efficiency falls.

We see a bit of an upgrade with Steph:

Spoiler:

From 14-16 he puts up volume on par with Jordan's best marks alongside efficiency on par with Jordan's best marks peaking a teensy bit higher in both and putting the two together at the same time. Curiously those numbers decline when KD comes(that may be regular-season specific though).

And then we get to Lebron, one of the best creators ever:

Spoiler:

Notably his raw voume is not stand-out. Peaking at 16.2 it's barely ahead of Jordan's 89 and a bit behind two Steph marks. But efficiency is a different matter. Jordan is simply not competitive here. Steph competes from 14 to 16 but he's at a significant disadvantage generally and has no answer for Lebron's 2010.

Enter Johnson:

Spoiler:

Jordan may not be competitive with Lebron, but Lebron is even less competitive with Magic. Magic completely breaks the chart in terms of volume and efficiency, again and again. He has three seasons where he creates more than any of the years we've looked at and all three are more efficient than any of the seasons we've looked at.

But does any of this matter? Well...

Proof of Concept:
Curry:

Spoiler:

2015 +4 (RS) +4.1(PS)
2016 +7.9(RS)+5.7(PS)
2017 +6.8(RS)+11.6 (PS)
2018 + 5.0(RS)+6.5(PS)
2019 + 5.5(RS)+5.4 (PS)
average: 5.85 (RS) 6.6(PS)
combined average: +6.2

Lebron

Spoiler:

2013 +6.4 (RS) +7.2 (PS)
2014 +4.2 (RS) +10.6 (PS)
2015 +5.5(RS) +5.5 (PS)
2016 +4.5(RS) +12.5 (PS)
2017 +4.8 (RS) +13.7 (PS)
Average +5.1(RS) +9.9 (PS)
combined average: +7.5

jordan* (i had to use his first 5 championship seasons)

Spoiler:

1991 +6.7(RS) +11.7 (PS)
1992 +7.3(RS) +6.5 (PS)
1993 +4.9 (RS) +9.8 (PS)
1996 +7.6 (RS) +8.6 (PS)
1997 +7.7(RS) +6.5(PS)
average +6.85 (RS) +8.6(PS)
combined average:+7.7

nash

Spoiler:

2005 suns. +8.4(RS) +17 (PS)
2006 suns +5.3(RS) +9.5 (PS)
2007 suns +7.4(RS)+7.6 (PS)
2008 suns. +5.8(RS) + 3.1 (PS)
2010 suns +7.7(RS) +13.4 (PS)
Average +6.9(RS) + 10.1 (PS)
combined average: +8.5

shaq

Spoiler:

1998 +6.9(RS), +10.1(PS)
1999 +5.4(RS), +4.7(PS)
2000 +3.2(RS), +9.3(PS)
2001 +5.4 (RS) +13.6(PS)
2002 +4.9(RS), +6.4 (PS)
Average +5.2(RS) +8.8(PS)
combined average: +7

bird

Spoiler:

1984 +3.3 (RS) +6.4 (PS)
1985 +4.9 (RS) +3.9 (PS)
1986 +4.6 (RS) + 8.3 (PS)
1987 +5.2 (RS) + 8.7 (PS)
1988 +7.4 (RS) +4.2 (PS)
average +5.1(RS) +6.3(PS)
combined average: +5.7

magic

Spoiler:

1986 +6.1(RS) +6.7
1987 +7.6 (RS) +10.7
1988 +5.1(RS) +8.3
1989 +6 (RS) +9.3
1990 +5.9(RS) +8.4
Average +6.1(RS), + 8.7 (PS)
combined average: +7.4

Magic leads better offenses than Steph. Players similar to Magic tend to lead better offenses than players similar steph. Magic has proven himself without his best co-star, and players like Magic have shown proof of concept outside of optimal-situations while Steph and players like Steph seem to struggle generating great results until they find the right situation.

Magic on the other hand, by impact, was the king of his era:

Spoiler:

Magic Johnson(3x MVP) 1980-1991
Lakers are +0.8 without, +7.5 with

Micheal Jordan(5x MVP) 1985-1998
Bulls are +1.3 without, +6.1 with

Hakeem(1x MVP) 1985-1999
Rockets are -2.8 without. +2.5 with

Hakeem takes 33-win teams to 48 wins
Jordan takes 38-win teams to 53.5 wins
Magic takes 44-win teams to 59 wins

Keeping in mind that it's harder to lift better teams, Hakeem comes marginally behind Jordan, and slightly more behind Magic, but he's right up there with both.

Ben has his own(presumably more sophisticated) approach which likes Hakeem even better; "Prime WOWY" ranks Olajuwon 10th. Magic and Jordan rank 12th and 20th, respectively.

Collectively, the film and data scream that Johnson was one of the very best offensive players in history. His WOWYR numbers are fantastic, finishing first in the 2016 results, and near the top in all regressed game-level studies. His team’s offenses were even better in the postseason, improving by a weighted average of 2.5 efficiency points. However, Magic’s defensive work dings him somewhat among the other greats, as he was likely a neutral-impact defender in the early part of his career before his defense waned in later seasons. But it’s his longevity that costs him most on this list, as HIV stole valuable prime years for him to climb up the top-10.
In ’87, Magic authored his magnus opum, leading the same rotation from ’86 to a 66-win pace (9.5 SRS) and a mind-boggling 119.9 offensive rating in the postseason, a record that would stand until Cleveland posted a 120.3 mark in the 2017 playoffs.7 The ’88 and ’89 Lakers regressed slightly and then Kareem retired. With the firepower dwindling, the results still remained — LA maintained a win pace around 60 thanks to its elite offense in ’90 and ’91 — a testament to Magic’s floor-raising skills.

Injuries and aging complicate any analysis of Magic’s first retirement. Vlade Divac missed half of the 1992 season, and when he returned, Worthy — rapidly declining with age — missed the remainder of the year. The Lakers finished around .500, and in their only full-strength stretch (all of 11 games) they played at a 50-win pace (2.9 SRS). The offense finished right around average. Even five years after HIV abruptly ended his career, Johnson’s presence helped the ’96 team on offense (while hurting the defense): LA posted a +2.3 rORtg (51-win pace) in 38 games with Eddie Jones, and then a +7.4 rORtg (59-win pace) in 32 games when Magic suited up next to Jones.

And then there is the ceiling.

Magic is #1 in regular season win%
He is also #1 in playoff win%

He has won 5 championships along with 10 2nd-place finishes and his teams managed Duncan-esque consistency:

On the longevity front, I've walked it back a bit. While I'm still fine using extended longevity as a tiebreaker, I'm generally more focused in what a player can do in 5-10 years, because for the most part that's when a franchise can expect to build a contender with you. And of course, Magic had that. In Magic's 12 years before the HIV retirement, the Lakers had an amount of success that's just plain staggering for any career.

12 years. 12 years 50+ wins. 32 playoff series wins.

For the record, if my count is correct, LeBron himself only has 12 50+ win years (though he does have 41 playoff series victories).

So yeah, Magic packed in so much success into his career, that it's hard to take seriously longevity as that big of concern to me. Tiebreaker at most really.

Of course he had help and I don't want to just elevate the guy because he had more help...but being the star and leader of the team having the most dominant decade run since Russell is not something to be brushed aside lightly. I think we need to be very careful about assuming other guys have a comparable realistic ceiling.

[/spoiler]

Reiterating my selection for #9 here in the context of the run-off / tiebreaker voting.

[OhayoKD]

,

People who've voted do not need to vote again

[iggymcfrack]

Love seeing the fresh meat come in here and make good posts with well-outlined votes when they get quoted to come in for the runoff. Excellent stuff! Especially enjoyed Colbinii's post. The year-by-year ORtg and DRtg really hammered home how dominant KG was on both ends, and I loved the rim numbers too to show how much of a difference maker he was on the interior. I've always been super high on KG, but the more in-depth numbers I see, the higher on him I get. I honestly think there's a very good chance he was the 3rd best player in the history of basketball.

[OhayoKD]

Love seeing the fresh meat come in here and make good posts with well-outlined votes when they get quoted to come in for the runoff. Excellent stuff! Especially enjoyed Colbinii's post. The year-by-year ORtg and DRtg really hammered home how dominant KG was on both ends, and I loved the rim numbers too to show how much of a difference maker he was on the interior. I've always been super high on KG, but the more in-depth numbers I see, the higher on him I get. I honestly think there's a very good chance he was the 3rd best player in the history of basketball.

behind 1st place lebron and 2nd place duncan I presume

[OldSchoolNoBull]

FFS people, come on and vote for Magic.

I can’t stand the modernism that permeates this board. Just punishing Magic for a lack of longevity that was 100% not his fault and drooling over KG’s defense while ignoring that KG was an average offensive player compared to Magic and the fact that Magic is one of the game’s greatest winners.

Come on.

This place is hung up on KG almost as much as it is LeBron.

[OhayoKD]

FFS people, come on and vote for Magic.

I can’t stand the modernism that permeates this board. Just punishing Magic for a lack of longevity that was 100% not his fault and drooling over KG’s defense while ignoring that KG was an average offensive player compared to Magic and the fact that Magic is one of the game’s greatest winners.

Come on.

KG over Magic has nothing to do with modernism. Much better defender giving great two-way impact and longevity are all you really need to make the case.

"Modernism" as justification is probably more applicable to Shaq

[OhayoKD]

Nice, you just woke me up. So the project went live, I need to read a bit. Doing a real quick post -

KG’s actual projected SRS win total, when healthy. Taking a couple number from Backpicks (Elgee).

45+
40+
40+
50+
45+
50+

For a talent check on the Timberwolves era, includes guys like Troy Hudson, Rashad McCants, Wright, etc. When I say embarrassing, you can clearly see them at a level of the current day Pistons, somewhere around a 17 W ball club. A lot of these simply can’t suit up.

Most of his teammates were embarrassing, and that pretty much explains why Minnesota had such a low win total.

Once KG landed to Boston, Boston’sprojected SRS 08-12

60+
60+
50+
50+
50+

Kg would pretty much weed through tough matchups to the finals and make Boston relevant even in his post prime era. This tells me KG would be a bit like Tim Duncan when gifted with a good ballclub.

Another thought, as a player, Garnett’s skillset measured extremely high. He was consistently thought to be an ATG. Even when you check out his passing rates, they seem to be in extremely impressive, almost like a 6 assist guard type of guy.

Numbers like VORP and Rebounding have KG clearly in the Top 10.

I would say Garnett’s main advantage of Magic truly is defense. Garnett’s defensive +/-’s are always at the top, and accolades wise, KG was thought to be a clear DPOY candidate. There are only a few legends in the individual D-Rating groups that can have a case over KG.

Vote: Kevin Garnett

Nominate: Dirk Nowitzki

Per LA Bird they were an 18-win team in games without and off course there's KG dominating everyone over the last 25 years besides duncan(possibly the strongest emperical case for "best player after kareem and before Lebron") and impact goliath Lebron