RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #18 (Dirk Nowitzki)

[One_and_Done]

I'm unclear how looking at the whole of their RS, and then their playoffs, is less useful than a cherry picked smaller sample.

The better numbers you use, the further Dirk is ahead. Like yeah, KD gets up more shots with slightly better efficiency, but he’s not as complete of a player as Dirk and nowhere NEAR as complete of a player as Paul.

KD is faster, longer, more athletic, better at passing, defends better, plays offball better, and stats suggest he is better offensively than Dirk, but he's 'less complete' because what, a computer formula says so?

Isn't the whole point to put the ball in more often at higher efficiency?

[70sFan]

For all the talk of KD just being about stats and not winning, if you go through his career every year until 21 I think you can make a compelling case hus teams met or exceeded expectations given the circumstances.

I won't comment 2008 and 2009 teams.

2011 isn't a massive black mark on Durant's resume, because he was still young but the team definitely underperformed against the Mavs in WCF.

I think 2013 is a tough call because of Westbrook injury, but the Thunder were dominated by solid, but unspectacular Grizzlies team that got destroyed by the Spurs in the next round.

2015 is a clear underperformance due to Durant's injury.
2016 isn't an underpeformance overall, but I guess you can make a case that the Thunder should have closed out the series leading it 3-1. In these last three games, Durant averaged 32 ppg on only 51.7 TS%.
2019 is another underperformance due to Durant's injury.
2020 is obvious.

Of course, both 2022 and 2023 are underperformances, but you didn't include it for some reasons.

I don't know, I guess it depends on how you look at Durant. If you legitimately think he's top 10-15 candidate, then most of these years should be called underperformances. If you view him closer to the high 20s, then I guess only a few of them don't look good.

basically all of your examples are "they were injured", which would seem the point of the phrase "given the circumstances". and the other 2 are "they went as far as you could expect, but not in a good way", which is probably not the general point of saying someone underperformed (if i guess at OaD's meaning).

Durant wasn't injured in 2011, 2013, 2016, 2022 and 2023. I mentioned all these years. In case of 2011 and 2016, the Thunder were healthy.

[70sFan]

Yep. That's what 'in the circumstances' means. Kind of crazy that needs to be explained. I know I was furious at KD for choking in the 2019 finals by having a random injury. Only losers get random injuries. What was he thinking?

Do you think injuries don't matter? Do you think that Durant missing two full seasons in his prime shouldn't be taken into consideration? Do you think Durant's injury didn't hurt Warriors in 2019?

[70sFan]

I'm unclear how looking at the whole of their RS, and then their playoffs, is less useful than a cherry picked smaller sample.

The better numbers you use, the further Dirk is ahead. Like yeah, KD gets up more shots with slightly better efficiency, but he’s not as complete of a player as Dirk and nowhere NEAR as complete of a player as Paul.

KD is faster, longer, more athletic, better at passing, defends better, plays offball better, and stats suggest he is better offensively than Dirk, but he's 'less complete' because what, a computer formula says so?

Isn't the whole point to put the ball in more often at higher efficiency?

Dirk is bigger, stronger, more balanced, better at turnover economy, better rebounder and better postseason performer. I can do the same.

I am also confused how you came to the conclusion that Durant is a better off-ball player than Dirk, could you elaborate?

[OldSchoolNoBull]

I'm unclear how looking at the whole of their RS, and then their playoffs, is less useful than a cherry picked smaller sample.

The better numbers you use, the further Dirk is ahead. Like yeah, KD gets up more shots with slightly better efficiency, but he’s not as complete of a player as Dirk and nowhere NEAR as complete of a player as Paul.

KD is faster, longer, more athletic, better at passing, defends better, plays offball better, and stats suggest he is better offensively than Dirk, but he's 'less complete' because what, a computer formula says so?

Isn't the whole point to put the ball in more often at higher efficiency?

Again, not by DRAPM.

[One_and_Done]

Yep. That's what 'in the circumstances' means. Kind of crazy that needs to be explained. I know I was furious at KD for choking in the 2019 finals by having a random injury. Only losers get random injuries. What was he thinking?

Do you think injuries don't matter? Do you think that Durant missing two full seasons in his prime shouldn't be taken into consideration? Do you think Durant's injury didn't hurt Warriors in 2019?

Injuries are relevant. You only get credit for stuff you actually did.

There's context to them too though. If a guy is strategically resting and is ready for the playoffs, that's relevant. As I said, I basically disregard injuries to Kawhi in 2017 or KD in 2019. If a guy missed time for a bizarre situation, like to protest civil rights after his brother was killed by the police, I'm going to be reluctant to dock him if it was 20 games. Like, he could have played if he wanted to, just randomness stopped it. That last thing almost never applies though.

If I was comparing 2 same tier players longevity is a big differentiator. I don't think they are on the same tier though. I'd have had KD around 10-12, and Dirk more like 15-17. Both worthy selections here, but KD is just better.

Some of these other years you cite, where KD has no 'injury excuse', make it hard to muster the energy to reply to you seriously. You mention 2016 for example. I just don't see why, at this stage of discussion, that merits a further rebuttal.

[Doctor MJ]

I don't think it's accurate to say they got better as he scaled down. I think it's accurate to say the offenses got better and assist % went down a bit when there was a second playmaker on the floor in Hornacek as opposed to the inefficient and non-playmaking 2 guards before him (Hansen, Griffith, Jeff Malone, etc.).

That's why I made the first post here. I don't think people realize just how weak the offensive personnel around Stockton and Malone were outside of the Hornacek years (and those were end of prime years for Hornacek from age 31 to 36). When Stockton had any help outside of Karl Malone, his offenses were consistently top 3 in the league and that's with the likes of Greg Ostertag, Olden Polynice, and Byron Russell still playing the main minutes at C and SF. Nash's MVP years he had Shawn Marion, Joe Johnson, and Quentin Richardson in 2005 in addition to he and Amare, then in 2006 with Amare injured, he still had Raja Bell, James Jones, and Leandro Barbosa for spacing and efficient off ball scoring, Boris Diaw who averaged 6 assists a game as a big man playmaker, and Kurt Thomas, who while not that impressive was better than the Utah centers offensively to complement Nash and Marion. While it's not Kareem, Worth, and Byron Scott and you can challenge how valuable the likes of Marion is compared to Karl Malone, it's certainly better than anything Stockton ever played with even when he ran the top rated offense in the league.

Thing is, Malone's playmaking scaled up while this was occurring. He never broke 5.0 Ast/100 in his 20s, but broke it as a matter of course in his 30s going well into the 6s. The growth is even more stark in the playoffs where he never broke 4.0 before his 30s.

So this really wasn't just about a new arrival on the team coming in an pulling load away from the high primacy playmakers. There was also a move to shift playmaking primacy toward Malone as Stockton's was decreased. And this is the era which produced the best results for the Jazz.

[Doctor MJ]

1st Induction Vote: Karl Malone



2nd Induction Vote: Dirk Nowitzki

This is in keeping with the order I've had these guys since they got nominated.
Still siding with Malone. Still siding with Nowitzki above everyone else.

In the end, I think the best way to understand how I'm looking at Malone here is that I think we'd all tend to see Malone differently if he'd broken through and won a title, and now only could that have happened, the big guys who kept that from happening are already voted in now.

1st Nomination Vote: Nikola Jokic



2nd Nomination Vote: Dwyane Wade

Okay, so this deserves some explanation. In a nutshell: I'm siding with Jokic among the realistic competitors based on the count I see. If he were one of 2 clear candidates I'd have put him in my 2nd vote, but since there are 3, it's entirely possible that putting him as my 2nd vote means not actually having input on this nomination. Honestly, this is something I'm generally fine with nowadays...but aside from the fact that I do rank Jokic ahead Giannis & Barkley, I'd also just really like to not miss an opportunity to sing Jokic's praises.

Simply put, I'm way in on Jokic and think he has the potential to be a GOAT contender. It's still possible that the right matchup or technique will emerge and we'll never see him lead a team to another chip, but what's just clear at this point is that the proficiency across his full-stack offense is really like nothing we've seen before.

This is basketball genius of the highest order. It's really the longevity that puts a cap on how high he is now.

And that relates to why I still have Dwyane Wade above him on my list, and why I feel weird about not having Wade in my 1st spot. If I saw an opportunity for Wade to be the Nominee here, I'd keep him there.

It might seem funny for me to talk about Wade being helped by longevity given that we know he didn't exactly have the best longevity. But aside from the fact that it's indisputably better than Jokic's to this point, there's also the matter the success LeBron led Miami too would not exist without Wade, and likely nor would the Heat culture to anywhere near the same degree.

[One_and_Done]

Dirk isn't a better postseason performer if you look at their whole prime numbers.

In fact, if we took the top statistical year for KD outside of the Warriors and put it against Dirk's far and away best year in 2011, KD still comes out better.

KD 2021 PS p100: 42.3/11.4/5.5, 118 Ortg, 630 TS%
Dirk 2011 PS p100: 39.1/11.5/3.6, 115 Ortg, 609 TS%

[70sFan]

There's context to them too though. If a guy is strategically resting and is ready for the playoffs, that's relevant. As I said, I basically disregard injuries to Kawhi in 2017 or KD in 2019. If a guy missed time for a bizarre situation, like to protest civil rights after his brother was killed by the police, I'm going to be reluctant to dock him if it was 20 games. Like, he could have played if he wanted to, just randomness stopped it. That last thing almost never applies though.

Why though? 2019 Durant wasn't situation like you described earlier, it was a basketball-related injury.

Some of these other years you cite, where KD has no 'injury excuse', make it hard to muster the energy to reply to you seriously. You mention 2016 for example. I just don't see why, at this stage of discussion, that merits a further rebuttal.

So you think Durant played up to his capabilities in the 3 straight losses against the Warriors?

[MyUniBroDavis]

Deleted because this might lead to a stupid conversation

[70sFan]

Dirk isn't a better postseason performer if you look at their whole prime numbers.

In fact, if we took the top statistical year for KD outside of the Warriors and put it against Dirk's far and away best year in 2011, KD still comes out better.

KD 2021 PS p100: 42.3/11.4/5.5, 118 Ortg, 630 TS%
Dirk 2011 PS p100: 39.1/11.5/3.6, 115 Ortg, 609 TS%

I hope this is not a serious post.

[70sFan]

I’m honestly relatively indifferent to where KD is ranked and haven’t looked into it that much, I’d wonder if anyone here disagrees that if every perimeter player had a 1 on 1 he’d probably be a pretty clear favorite

Not relevant to the ranking but just wondering if anyone would disagree with that. Him probably best the best 1 on 1 perimeter player ever is probably something that overrates him honestly

I am not sure I'd agree. He's extremely long and had an amazing shooting touch, but he's also physically weak relative to other wings (very important thing in 1 on 1 game) and his handles are mediocre for a perimeter star. I don't know how his defense would translate to 1 on 1 game, but I don't think it would be anything special (in good or bad way). It also depends on who you call "perimeter player".

[One_and_Done]

Deleted because this might lead to a stupid conversation

Too late. Though I agree, he'd kill lot of these guys in a 1 on 1. Kawhi could take him certainly. I dunno, maybe 70s fan actually thinks West would beat Durant one on one.

[70sFan]

Deleted because this might lead to a stupid conversation

Too late. Though I agree, he'd kill lot of these guys in a 1 on 1. Kawhi could take him certainly. I dunno, maybe 70s fan actually thinks West would beat Durant one on one.

No, I don't think West would beat Durant one on one, definitely not more times than not.

I think we don't know anything about players capabilities to play one on one games to be honest. Usually the bigger and stronger guy wins serious 1 on 1 game, assuming that both can play of course.

[One_and_Done]

Dirk isn't a better postseason performer if you look at their whole prime numbers.

In fact, if we took the top statistical year for KD outside of the Warriors and put it against Dirk's far and away best year in 2011, KD still comes out better.

KD 2021 PS p100: 42.3/11.4/5.5, 118 Ortg, 630 TS%
Dirk 2011 PS p100: 39.1/11.5/3.6, 115 Ortg, 609 TS%

I hope this is not a serious post.

Did I cite 2011 or 2016 as examples of KD failing? If so my bad, that wouldn't have been a terribly serious thing of me to say.

70s fan you need to take a deep breath, because some of us have to resist the urge to call every single post advocating old timers as "not serious", because to us they're just not serious claims, but we have to hold our peace for the most part and listen to it seriously.

[70sFan]

Dirk isn't a better postseason performer if you look at their whole prime numbers.

In fact, if we took the top statistical year for KD outside of the Warriors and put it against Dirk's far and away best year in 2011, KD still comes out better.

KD 2021 PS p100: 42.3/11.4/5.5, 118 Ortg, 630 TS%
Dirk 2011 PS p100: 39.1/11.5/3.6, 115 Ortg, 609 TS%

I hope this is not a serious post.

Did I cite 2011 or 2016 as examples of KD failing? If so my bad, that wouldn't have been a terribly serious thing of me to say.

70s fan you need to take a deep breath, because some of us have to resist the urge to call every single post advocating old timers as "not serious", because to us they're just not serious claims, but we have to hold our peace for the most part and listen to it seriously.

You just compared a full postseason run leading to the title with 2 rounds performance in which Durant played almost half of the games against first round opponent and you decided it leads you to conclusion that Durant is a better player because of... points average and TS% (as always). No talk about competition, no talk about offensive success, no discussion about skillset - didn't you advocate strongly against looking just at numbers a few days ago?

[One_and_Done]

I'd rather take their whole prime playoffs as the best sample actually. You're the one taking only the limited sample of the playoffs, then limiting it even further to give Dirk an edge. We shouldn't limit it to playoffs either, except KD kills Dirk in the regular season as well.

As I said, I don't care about rings. I care about how guys performed. KD in 2021 performed as impressively as Dirk in 2011, it just didn't lead to a ring because his team was gutted by injuries, and even then he was a single inch away. If 1 inch is different Dirk isn't a less or more impressive player (though he'd have added value with those extra games).

[MyUniBroDavis]

Deleted because this might lead to a stupid conversation

Too late. Though I agree, he'd kill lot of these guys in a 1 on 1. Kawhi could take him certainly. I dunno, maybe 70s fan actually thinks West would beat Durant one on one.

No, I don't think West would beat Durant one on one, definitely not more times than not.

I think we don't know anything about players capabilities to play one on one games to be honest. Usually the bigger and stronger guy wins serious 1 on 1 game, assuming that both can play of course.

Just to be clear here how many times if they play 100 do you think they each win? 21 unlimited dribbles

[One_and_Done]

I see West struggling to score a point.