2025-26 NBA Season Discussion

[ManuteTheBrute]

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[Caneman786]

October 21 Pre-Season Betting Odds and implied probabilities. I will make a post with an update soon.

NBA Finals (Vigorish 20.9%)

1. +240, 24.3% - OKC
2. +550, 12.7% - DEN
3. +750, 9.7% - CLE
4. +900, 8.3% - NYK
5. +1300, 5.9% - MIN
6. +1400, 5.5% - HOU
7. +1600, 4.9% - LAL
8. +1800, 4.4% - ORL
8. +1800, 4.4% - LAC
10. +2500, 3.2% - GSW
11. +3300, 2.4% - DET
12. +3500, 2.3% - DAL
13. +4000, 2.0% - ATL
13. +4000, 2.0% - PHI
15. +5500, 1.5% - MIL
16. +6000, 1.4% - BOS
17. +6600, 1.2% - SAS
18. +10000, 0.8% - IND
18. +10000, 0.8% - TOR
20. +12500, 0.7% - MEM
21. +20000, 0.4% - MIA
22. +30000, 0.3% - NOP
23. +50000, 0.2% - CHI
23. +50000, 0.2% - POR
23. +50000, 0.2% - PHO
23. +50000, 0.2% - SAC
27. +100000, 0.1% - BKN
27. +100000, 0.1% - CHO
27. +100000, 0.1% - UTA
27. +100000, 0.1% - WAS

Over-Unders, West

Seed 1. 62.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - OKC
Seed 2. 53.5 wins, 53.2% Over, 4.3% Vigorish - DEN
Seed 3. 52.5 wins, 47.8% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - HOU
Seed 4. 49.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - MIN
Seed 5. 49.5 wins, 48.9% Over, 4.7% Vigorish - LAC
Seed 6. 47.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - GSW
Seed 7. 46.5 wins, 52.2% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - LAL
Seed 8. 44.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - SAS
Seed 9. 41.5 wins, 53.2% Over, 4.3% Vigorish - DAL
Seed 10. 39.5 wins, 53.2% Over, 4.3% Vigorish - MEM
Seed 11. 35.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - POR
Seed 12. 32.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - SAC
Seed 13. 30.5 wins, 52.2% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - NOP
Seed 13. 30.5 wins, 52.2% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - PHO
Seed 15. 18.5 wins, 54.7% Over, 5.1% Vigorish - UTA

NOTES: HOU has more projected wins than MIN although it has lower title odds.
LAC and GSW have more projected wins than LAL although they both have lower title odds.
SAS has more projected wins than DAL although it has lower title odds.
POR and SAC have more projected wins than NOP although they both have lower title odds.
SAC has more projected wins than PHO although it has lower title odds.

Over-Unders, East

Seed 1. 56.5 wins, 51.1% Over, 4.7% Vigorish - CLE
Seed 2. 53.5 wins, 48.9% Over, 4.7% Vigorish - NYK
Seed 3. 51.5 wins, 51.1% Over, 4.7% Vigorish - ORL
Seed 4. 46.5 wins, 51.1% Over, 4.7% Vigorish - ATL
Seed 5. 46.5 wins, 46.8% Over, 4.3% Vigorish - DET
Seed 6. 43.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - MIL
Seed 7. 43.5 wins, 48.9% Over, 4.7% Vigorish - PHI
Seed 8. 41.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - BOS
Seed 9. 39.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - TOR
Seed 10. 37.5 wins, 52.2% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - MIA
Seed 11. 37.5 wins, 47.8% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - IND
Seed 12. 33.5 wins, 52.2% Over, 4.5% Vigorish - CHI
Seed 13. 27.5 wins, 51.1% Over, 4.7% Vigorish - CHO
Seed 14. 20.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - WAS
Seed 15. 19.5 wins, 50.0% Over, 4.8% Vigorish - BKN

NOTES: MIL has more projected wins than PHI although it has lower title odds.
TOR and MIA have more projected wins than IND although they both have lower title odds.

NOTE: Across both the east and west, the odds add up to each team getting an average of 41.1 wins, making this quite precise. An average east team has 39.9 wins while an average west team has 42.3 wins.

Playoffs odds, West

1. -10000, 97.6% chance, 1.4% Vigorish - OKC
2. -5000, 94.3% chance, 3.9% Vigorish - DEN
3. -1600, 90.4% chance, 4.1% Vigorish - HOU
4. -1000, 87.2% chance, 4.2% Vigorish - MIN
5. -450, 78.6% chance, 4.0% Vigorish - LAC
6. -350, 74.5% chance, 4.4% Vigorish - LAL
7. -325, 73.4% chance, 4.2% Vigorish - GSW
8. -175, 60.9% chance, 4.5% Vigorish - SAS
9. -110, 50.0% chance, 4.8% Vigorish - DAL
10. +145, 39.1% chance, 4.5% Vigorish - MEM
11. +350, 21.4% chance, 4.0% Vigorish - POR
12. +425, 18.1% chance, 4.8% Vigorish - SAC
13. +550, 14.8% chance, 4.3% Vigorish - NOP
14. +650, 12.8% chance, 4.2% Vigorish - PHO
15. +3500, 2.7% chance, 1.8% Vigorish - UTA

NOTE: LAL had higher odds to make the playoffs than GSW did despite a lower regular season over-under for wins.
The odds add up to ~816%, which is slightly over the 800% that will actually occur as 8 West teams make the playoffs.

Playoffs odds, East

1. -10000, 95.8% chance, 3.4% Vigorish - CLE
2. -5000, 94.3% chance, 3.9% Vigorish - NYK
3. -2500, 92.0% chance, 4.5% Vigorish - ORL
4. -1000, 83.3% chance, 4.1% Vigorish - ATL
5. -375, 76.0% chance, 3.9% Vigorish - DET
7. -250, 68.2% chance, 4.8% Vigorish - PHI
6. -210, 64.7% chance, 4.8% Vigorish - MIL
8. -165, 59.9% chance, 3.9% Vigorish - BOS
9. +110, 45.3% chance, 5.1% Vigorish - TOR
10. +125, 42.6% chance, 4.4% Vigorish - MIA
10. +125, 42.6% chance, 4.4% Vigorish - IND
12. +400, 19.1% chance, 4.6% Vigorish - CHI
13. +625, 13.2% chance, 4.7% Vigorish - CHO
14. +1600, 5.6% chance, 4.9% Vigorish - WAS
15. +3500, 2.7% chance, 1.8% Vigorish - BKN

NOTE: PHI had higher odds to make the playoffs than MIL did despite a lower regular season over-under for wins.
The odds add up to ~805%, which is slightly over the 800% that will actually occur as 8 East teams make the playoffs.