2023-24 NBA Season Discussion

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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1801 » by Doctor MJ » Fri Mar 1, 2024 8:18 pm

Colbinii wrote:I don't view ROY as "who was the most impactful rookie". I did in the past, but I have since moved past that thought-process and instead try to en capture a narrative with awards like ROY.


I'm completely with you, though I'll say I'm reluctant to vote against a guy like Holmgren who I think deserved a serious case for all-star, particularly given that I don't think Wemby did.

But if Wemby's better as the season goes along, I'm not likely to knock him simply because he had a slower start.
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1802 » by The Master » Fri Mar 1, 2024 8:48 pm

Colbinii wrote:I don't view ROY as "who was the most impactful rookie". I did in the past, but I have since moved past that thought-process and instead try to en capture a narrative with awards like ROY.

Yeah, me too, especially after Banchero vs Kessler a year ago. This time, I don't consider this ROTY race as a 'legit' discussion, because we have enough of track record to know that Holmgren is actually a sophomore, benefiting of his redshirted rookie year in the same way as Griffin, Simmons or Embiid benefited from that in the past. He's visibly older and on a different stage of his career as a player, Mitchell and Simmons were at least the same age. Chet is great regardless and already a borderline allstar impact-wise, I don't see it as a debate (at least vs Wemby) tho.
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1803 » by LukaTheGOAT » Sat Mar 2, 2024 7:06 am

The Master wrote:
Colbinii wrote:I don't view ROY as "who was the most impactful rookie". I did in the past, but I have since moved past that thought-process and instead try to en capture a narrative with awards like ROY.

Yeah, me too, especially after Banchero vs Kessler a year ago. This time, I don't consider this ROTY race as a 'legit' discussion, because we have enough of track record to know that Holmgren is actually a sophomore, benefiting of his redshirted rookie year in the same way as Griffin, Simmons or Embiid benefited from that in the past. He's visibly older and on a different stage of his career as a player, Mitchell and Simmons were at least the same age. Chet is great regardless and already a borderline allstar impact-wise, I don't see it as a debate (at least vs Wemby) tho.


I get your point, and MAYBE Chet's development would be ahead of Mitchell due to get to train with the team, but Mitchell's age 21 season was his rookie season, which is the same as Chet. Chet does turn 22 in May, while for Mitchell it would be September, so it would be about a 5 month difference.
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1804 » by The Master » Sat Mar 2, 2024 7:59 am

LukaTheGOAT wrote:I get your point, and MAYBE Chet's development would be ahead of Mitchell due to get to train with the team, but Mitchell's age 21 season was his rookie season, which is the same as Chet. Chet does turn 22 in May, while for Mitchell it would be September, so it would be about a 5 month difference.

Hm, I wasn't comparing Chet to Mitchell per se, rather both situations: Griffin, Simmons or now Holmgren had production-wise historic 'rookie campaigns', so it's a small-sample indication how red-shirted rookie year, even without playing, can be fruitful for a player's development.

That being said, Simmons and Mitchell were at least basically the same age (Mitchell played a year longer in college), Simmons still had different curve of development, but it made some sense to compare them.

Here, Holmgren is a 'semi-sophomore' actually older 16 months than Wembanyama, so even though theoretically he's a rookie and I agree on him having ROTY-worthy campaign - I don't think it would've had any 'value' considering circumstances (if we assume in the first place that ROTY has any value as an award). That's why I don't see it as a debate.

Btw. Mavs are 5-3 after investing a fair share of their future for PJ Washington-Gafford duo - PJ looks like an upgrade defensively over Grant, but (expectedly) he's so streaky offensively, while Gafford played a few times already scrub minutes from the bench. This is a fascinating experiment to follow.
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1805 » by ShaqAttac » Sat Mar 2, 2024 9:46 am

lets beat them nuggies
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1806 » by HeartBreakKid » Sat Mar 2, 2024 11:16 am

I look at ROY in splits and do not factor the start of the season as heavily as the last.

But I do greatly urge people who have criteria's that consistently give them the same results as Skip Bayless and Stephen A Smith to tweak it. Nothing good can come from that. :lol:



Coincidently, I would say that the player who was actually the best rookie that year, usually ends up better than the selected, narrative-driven, ROY - making the latter a rather pointless philosophy.

Just off the top of my head some examples

Jokic > Towns
Haliburton > Ball
Embiid > Brogdon
Oladipo > MCW
Davis > Lillard


I think Wiggins > Noel is the only exception, and it took a few years for that to be true - and Wiggins didn't exactly light the world on fire either like he was projected to. Wiggins certainly did not deserve a "narrative" boost that he got for putting up an empty 20 points and the incorrect projections that he would become a superstar.


The other examples left, the ROY and best rookie were the same that year (Simmons, Luka, Morant?)
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1807 » by LukaTheGOAT » Sat Mar 2, 2024 5:06 pm

The Master wrote:
LukaTheGOAT wrote:I get your point, and MAYBE Chet's development would be ahead of Mitchell due to get to train with the team, but Mitchell's age 21 season was his rookie season, which is the same as Chet. Chet does turn 22 in May, while for Mitchell it would be September, so it would be about a 5 month difference.

Hm, I wasn't comparing Chet to Mitchell per se, rather both situations: Griffin, Simmons or now Holmgren had production-wise historic 'rookie campaigns', so it's a small-sample indication how red-shirted rookie year, even without playing, can be fruitful for a player's development.

That being said, Simmons and Mitchell were at least basically the same age (Mitchell played a year longer in college), Simmons still had different curve of development, but it made some sense to compare them.

Here, Holmgren is a 'semi-sophomore' actually older 16 months than Wembanyama, so even though theoretically he's a rookie and I agree on him having ROTY-worthy campaign - I don't think it would've had any 'value' considering circumstances (if we assume in the first place that ROTY has any value as an award). That's why I don't see it as a debate.

Btw. Mavs are 5-3 after investing a fair share of their future for PJ Washington-Gafford duo - PJ looks like an upgrade defensively over Grant, but (expectedly) he's so streaky offensively, while Gafford played a few times already scrub minutes from the bench. This is a fascinating experiment to follow.


Yup, I reread it, and I see your point. Apologies.
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1808 » by AEnigma » Sat Mar 2, 2024 5:49 pm

HeartBreakKid wrote:I would say that the player who was actually the best rookie that year, usually ends up better than the selected, narrative-driven, ROY - making the latter a rather pointless philosophy.

Just off the top of my head some examples

Jokic > Towns
Haliburton > Ball
Embiid > Brogdon
Oladipo > MCW
Davis > Lillard

That one was openly because of games played, and I have never felt sympathy for Embiid being “robbed” of his 30-game award win.

These are otherwise good examples in principle, but I wonder whether we will look at Kessler and Banchero in the same light.

The other examples left the ROY and best rookie likely won the same year (Simmons, Luka, Morant?)

Mitchell has been a much better player than Simmons, although for rookie seasons specifically I am more ambivalent (the camp complaining about Simmons’ eligibility rather than his play always read as something of a unnecessary concession).
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1809 » by The Master » Sat Mar 2, 2024 6:54 pm

HeartBreakKid wrote:Jokic > Towns
Haliburton > Ball
Embiid > Brogdon
Oladipo > MCW
Davis > Lillard

I don't think that these awards were necessarily narrative-driven: Towns, Brogdon and Lillard just played much bigger minutes than their rivals, so it wasn't 'undeserved' (as minutes played in general matter), LaMelo had better boxscore number on slightly better team with similar advanced stats - MCW was a really weak year in general, it's not like Oladipo was any good as a rookie.

These are rather great examples how useless ROTY award is in general, eg. Jokic looked fantastic in advanced metrics, but wasn't hyped enough to get bigger minutes even on this Nuggets team, Haliburton played with all-star point guard as a rookie, and so on.

Banchero vs Kessler is another story, I believe KD was as well one of the worst players in the league according to RAPM and advanced metrics as a ROTY - it's just really difficult to grasp impact/boxscore production/potential, as it's very often impossible to compare rookies considering different circumstances. I'd rather have Kessler than Banchero a year ago if I wanted to win, but it's kind of irrelevant, isn't? Wemby is already one of the best rebounders/shotblockers/finishers (if utilized correctly) in the league, so I can imagine him doing some impressive swing if he had played on as stacked squad as this Thunder team, but we don't know that.
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1810 » by AussieBuck » Sat Mar 2, 2024 9:44 pm

Who knew that Doc could be a gigantic upgrade over a coach he replaced? Fun times.
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1811 » by Colbinii » Sat Mar 2, 2024 10:38 pm

AussieBuck wrote:Who knew that Doc could be a gigantic upgrade over a coach he replaced? Fun times.


Is he a gigantic upgrade?

The Bucks record was better under Griffin.

Giannis had better numbers and a better +/- under Griffin.
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1812 » by Prez » Sat Mar 2, 2024 11:05 pm

Colbinii wrote:
AussieBuck wrote:Who knew that Doc could be a gigantic upgrade over a coach he replaced? Fun times.


Is he a gigantic upgrade?

The Bucks record was better under Griffin.

Giannis had better numbers and a better +/- under Griffin.

Yes, he is a gigantic upgrade. Apologies in advance for the novel lol.

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The Bucks under Griffin played an idiotic, over aggressive pressuring/scrambling defense and completely disregarded transition defense. The identity of the Bucks under Bud, which lead to perennial elite defenses, was leveraging Brook as a rim protector, Giannis as a roaming help defender, and playing more conservatively outside of that with disciplined transition defense. Griffin came in and immediately scrapped that, had everyone pressuring way too tight and too far out, had guards mindlessly crashing the offense glass, and as a result the Bucks transition D cratered, their paint defense fell off dramatically, and the whole team lost faith in what they were doing on that end.

They were 21st on defense at the time Griffin got fired (1/24), and are 2nd in the league ever since. League average in defense at the rim under Griffin, back to top 5 since he was fired. Post Griffin and under Doc we have significantly lower opponent transition frequency, while also being 7th in half court defense, with league average opponent 3PT%, so not benefiting from outlier bad opponent shooting. They stopped having guards crash the glass and are having them get back in transition now, stopped the pressuring defense and are now blending a more conservative defense with more switching, and it’s been night and day on that end.

The reason for their record under Griffin was relatively good health for significant stretches (especially Middleton, who was really rounding into form and playing the majority of games), a really weak schedule, and Giannis/Dame heroics particularly in crunch time. The results did not reflect the process whatsoever, and what they were doing defensively in particular was not sustainable at all and was going to get picked apart as the schedule toughened up. Griffin got canned before that could happen though, so he benefits from only coaching the weak part of the schedule.

Doc inherited the team when the schedule got much tougher and the team embarked on a brutal western conference road trip, with obviously no training camp and extremely limited time for practices, made even tougher by a series of injuries/absences to key guys (Dame missing several games with an ankle injury, Brook missing several games as his wife had a baby, and then Middleton injuring his ankle on a KD closeout and being out ever since). But the structural changes defensively were apparent pretty much from the beginning, and now that they’re closer to full strength and have had some time to implement more and more wrinkles on both ends, the results are starting to reflect the improved process more and more. And hopefully that continues as Middleton returns in the next game or two.

Which kinda leads to the point about Giannis’ +/-, which IMO is largely lineup driven and a product of Giannis being tasked with leading most of the severely ballhandling/playmaking deficient bench units, which has been made much tougher without Middleton. When Middleton gets back in a game or two, having him as the lead ballhandler in those 2nd units will help dramatically.

Lastly, even beyond the X's and O's stuff, the people management/leadership side of things with Griffin were HORRIBLE. He had no command of the team, did not clearly define roles for the role players, and it was essentially the inmates running the asylum, and the entire team lost faith in him as a coach. Doc has plenty of warts, but came in, immediately set roles for everyone, clearly communicated the expectations, and has the whole team bought in on defense again.
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1813 » by AussieBuck » Sun Mar 3, 2024 3:51 am

Colbinii wrote:
AussieBuck wrote:Who knew that Doc could be a gigantic upgrade over a coach he replaced? Fun times.


Is he a gigantic upgrade?

The Bucks record was better under Griffin.

Giannis had better numbers and a better +/- under Griffin.

Haha yea. Also Gianni's+/- is a function of how he's used in lineups. Doc has gone back to the old Bud strategy of using him to hold together all bench lineups which suppresses his on numbers.
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1814 » by Colbinii » Sun Mar 3, 2024 4:05 am

AussieBuck wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
AussieBuck wrote:Who knew that Doc could be a gigantic upgrade over a coach he replaced? Fun times.


Is he a gigantic upgrade?

The Bucks record was better under Griffin.

Giannis had better numbers and a better +/- under Griffin.

Haha yea. Also Gianni's+/- is a function of how he's used in lineups. Doc has gone back to the old Bud strategy of using him to hold together all bench lineups which suppresses his on numbers.


Sounds like the Bucks should have just kept Bud :lol:
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1815 » by AussieBuck » Sun Mar 3, 2024 4:07 am

Colbinii wrote:
AussieBuck wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
Is he a gigantic upgrade?

The Bucks record was better under Griffin.

Giannis had better numbers and a better +/- under Griffin.

Haha yea. Also Gianni's+/- is a function of how he's used in lineups. Doc has gone back to the old Bud strategy of using him to hold together all bench lineups which suppresses his on numbers.


Sounds like the Bucks should have just kept Bud :lol:

Oh ok, guess this is the general board too now
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1816 » by Colbinii » Sun Mar 3, 2024 4:23 am

AussieBuck wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
AussieBuck wrote:Haha yea. Also Gianni's+/- is a function of how he's used in lineups. Doc has gone back to the old Bud strategy of using him to hold together all bench lineups which suppresses his on numbers.


Sounds like the Bucks should have just kept Bud :lol:

Oh ok, guess this is the general board too now


Why? Because I think Bud is a good coach?

Doc Rivers has never been a better coach than Bud. Do you think he will this season?
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1817 » by Special_Puppy » Sun Mar 3, 2024 4:29 am

LeBron NEEDS to leave the Lakers. Go for ring 5 instead of wasting your last ~3 years on a play-in team
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1818 » by GSP » Sun Mar 3, 2024 5:29 am

Special_Puppy wrote:LeBron NEEDS to leave the Lakers. Go for ring 5 instead of wasting your last ~3 years on a play-in team


Dont they have the ability to get another star this summer? Someone like Mitchell, Trae, Kyrie? to round out with Ad and theres not better feasible situations for him
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1819 » by HeartBreakKid » Sun Mar 3, 2024 1:56 pm

The Master wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:Jokic > Towns
Haliburton > Ball
Embiid > Brogdon
Oladipo > MCW
Davis > Lillard

I don't think that these awards were necessarily narrative-driven: Towns, Brogdon and Lillard just played much bigger minutes than their rivals, so it wasn't 'undeserved' (as minutes played in general matter), LaMelo had better boxscore number on slightly better team with similar advanced stats - MCW was a really weak year in general, it's not like Oladipo was any good as a rookie.

These are rather great examples how useless ROTY award is in general, eg. Jokic looked fantastic in advanced metrics, but wasn't hyped enough to get bigger minutes even on this Nuggets team, Haliburton played with all-star point guard as a rookie, and so on.

Banchero vs Kessler is another story, I believe KD was as well one of the worst players in the league according to RAPM and advanced metrics as a ROTY - it's just really difficult to grasp impact/boxscore production/potential, as it's very often impossible to compare rookies considering different circumstances. I'd rather have Kessler than Banchero a year ago if I wanted to win, but it's kind of irrelevant, isn't? Wemby is already one of the best rebounders/shotblockers/finishers (if utilized correctly) in the league, so I can imagine him doing some impressive swing if he had played on as stacked squad as this Thunder team, but we don't know that.


I don't think "minutes matter" much for rookies. It's not like MORE minutes of Andrew Wiggins equates to MORE value. Naturally high draft picks on terrible teams will always get high minutes.

LaMelo did not have better stats than Haliburton and he played less games. People liked LaMelo because of the aesthetics of his game and because he was significantly more famous coming into the league. It was not based on objectivity. Haliburton was not even 2nd in ROY if I can recall.

LaMelo was rookie of the year because people wanted him to be rookie of the year, and people simply did not care for Tyler because he was a less unique player. He didn't have hype, didn't play for a club people care about (neither did LaMelo of course), less people saw him play. The fact that LaMelo's stats were at best even with Haliburton was dismissed with the "eye test" that shows that LaMelo was better, which was nonsensical.

If you're saying that more minutes of Karl Towns equates to a higher title than Nikola Jokic, I would disagree. If you had a championship level team and you could pick between rookie Lillard and rookie Davis, you're usually better off with Davis, even if for some reason the coach decided to not play him more minutes.


Victor Oladipo was a good rookie, he just is not a rookie with a projection to be a superstar. Most rookies are much worse than Oladipo regardless of the year.



Like most awards, Rookie of the Year is decided half way into the season. Anything past the 2nd half people do not care. MCW won rookie of the year within the first 2 weeks of the season.
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Re: 2023-24 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#1820 » by HeartBreakKid » Sun Mar 3, 2024 2:07 pm

AEnigma wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:I would say that the player who was actually the best rookie that year, usually ends up better than the selected, narrative-driven, ROY - making the latter a rather pointless philosophy.

Just off the top of my head some examples

Jokic > Towns
Haliburton > Ball
Embiid > Brogdon
Oladipo > MCW
Davis > Lillard

That one was openly because of games played, and I have never felt sympathy for Embiid being “robbed” of his 30-game award win.

These are otherwise good examples in principle, but I wonder whether we will look at Kessler and Banchero in the same light.

The other examples left the ROY and best rookie likely won the same year (Simmons, Luka, Morant?)

Mitchell has been a much better player than Simmons, although for rookie seasons specifically I am more ambivalent (the camp complaining about Simmons’ eligibility rather than his play always read as something of a unnecessary concession).


Yeah, I am not saying Simmons is the best of his draft class (or any of them are) - I'm saying he was both ROY and the best rookie, so he's not really eligible for what we are critiquing.

I am not saying the best rookie always ends up the best player, I am saying that they are often better than the official ROY.

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