PC Board OT thread

GSP · Post #1981 » by **GSP** » Sun Jan 17, 2016 8:32 pm

Okc/Warriors games are almost always some of the very best games of whatever season theyre in. Some insane performances and plays by various players in those games too. Id rather see that series than Okc/Sa from a fan perspective

Post #1982 » by **PaulieWal** » Sun Jan 17, 2016 9:05 pm

I know OKC is in the Cleveland tier but the only reason I still have some hope for OKC is that they have the potential to have the 2 best players on the floor in every single series. Note: I am saying potential not that they will in case they are matched-up with Curry or Leonard.

But people should overlook the Thunder at their own peril. If KD and GOAT (along with Ibaka) are healthy when the playoffs start those 2 could potentially be the 2 best players in every series and could outplay Curry/Leonard easily.

RSCD3_ · Post #1983 » by **RSCD3_** » Sun Jan 17, 2016 9:23 pm

PaulieWal wrote:I know OKC is in the Cleveland tier but the only reason I still have some hope for OKC is that they have the potential to have the 2 best players on the floor in every single series. Note: I am saying potential not that they will in case they are matched-up with Curry or Leonard.

But people should overlook the Thunder at their own peril. If KD and GOAT (along with Ibaka) are healthy when the playoffs start those 2 could potentially be the 2 best players in every series and could outplay Curry/Leonard easily.

So no hope for the cleveland toer short of loving remembering how to make shots like it's 2014 again and lebron hitting 2009 PLAYOFFS and beyond while they keep the same defensive pressure as during last year

Post #1984 » by **PaulieWal** » Sun Jan 17, 2016 9:29 pm

RSCD3_ wrote:
PaulieWal wrote:I know OKC is in the Cleveland tier but the only reason I still have some hope for OKC is that they have the potential to have the 2 best players on the floor in every single series. Note: I am saying potential not that they will in case they are matched-up with Curry or Leonard.

But people should overlook the Thunder at their own peril. If KD and GOAT (along with Ibaka) are healthy when the playoffs start those 2 could potentially be the 2 best players in every series and could outplay Curry/Leonard easily.

So no hope for the cleveland toer short of loving remembering how to make shots like it's 2014 again and lebron hitting 2009 PLAYOFFS and beyond while they keep the same defensive pressure as during last year

Yeah, I'd say Cavs and OKC are long shots and I'd give OKC slightly better odds of winning it all than the Cavs. For Cavs to win LeBron will have to play with a J (which at this point remains to be seen), good defense, and Love will have to be better. And even then they might not be better than Spurs/Warriors. For OKC to win KD/GOAT will have to outplay Curry, Leonard, and then LeBron for them to have a chance. I just think the latter has a better chance of happening than the former.

Again, this is all too premature and by the time the playoffs start it's possible the landscape looks different with injuries to key players, the level of play these 4 teams exhibit and other factors. I do expect my opinion to be unpopular but I believe in the GOAT!!

Dr Spaceman · Post #1985 » by **Dr Spaceman** » Sun Jan 17, 2016 10:02 pm

PaulieWal wrote:
RSCD3_ wrote:
PaulieWal wrote:I know OKC is in the Cleveland tier but the only reason I still have some hope for OKC is that they have the potential to have the 2 best players on the floor in every single series. Note: I am saying potential not that they will in case they are matched-up with Curry or Leonard.

But people should overlook the Thunder at their own peril. If KD and GOAT (along with Ibaka) are healthy when the playoffs start those 2 could potentially be the 2 best players in every series and could outplay Curry/Leonard easily.

So no hope for the cleveland toer short of loving remembering how to make shots like it's 2014 again and lebron hitting 2009 PLAYOFFS and beyond while they keep the same defensive pressure as during last year

Yeah, I'd say Cavs and OKC are long shots and I'd give OKC slightly better odds of winning it all than the Cavs. For Cavs to win LeBron will have to play with a J (which at this point remains to be seen), good defense, and Love will have to be better. And even then they might not be better than Spurs/Warriors. For OKC to win KD/GOAT will have to outplay Curry, Leonard, and then LeBron for them to have a chance. I just think the latter has a better chance of happening than the former.

Again, this is all too premature and by the time the playoffs start it's possible the landscape looks different with injuries to key players, the level of play these 4 teams exhibit and other factors. I do expect my opinion to be unpopular but I believe in the GOAT!!

You told me 3 days ago you think the Thunder are favorites to win the West

Post #1986 » by **PaulieWal** » Sun Jan 17, 2016 10:07 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:
PaulieWal wrote:
RSCD3_ wrote:
So no hope for the cleveland toer short of loving remembering how to make shots like it's 2014 again and lebron hitting 2009 PLAYOFFS and beyond while they keep the same defensive pressure as during last year

Yeah, I'd say Cavs and OKC are long shots and I'd give OKC slightly better odds of winning it all than the Cavs. For Cavs to win LeBron will have to play with a J (which at this point remains to be seen), good defense, and Love will have to be better. And even then they might not be better than Spurs/Warriors. For OKC to win KD/GOAT will have to outplay Curry, Leonard, and then LeBron for them to have a chance. I just think the latter has a better chance of happening than the former.

Again, this is all too premature and by the time the playoffs start it's possible the landscape looks different with injuries to key players, the level of play these 4 teams exhibit and other factors. I do expect my opinion to be unpopular but I believe in the GOAT!!

You told me 3 days ago you think the Thunder are favorites to win the West

Trolling you privately on whatsapp =/ the rational basketball discussion I try to have on the PC board.

Dr Spaceman · Post #1987 » by **Dr Spaceman** » Sun Jan 17, 2016 10:16 pm

PaulieWal wrote:
Dr Spaceman wrote:
PaulieWal wrote:
Yeah, I'd say Cavs and OKC are long shots and I'd give OKC slightly better odds of winning it all than the Cavs. For Cavs to win LeBron will have to play with a J (which at this point remains to be seen), good defense, and Love will have to be better. And even then they might not be better than Spurs/Warriors. For OKC to win KD/GOAT will have to outplay Curry, Leonard, and then LeBron for them to have a chance. I just think the latter has a better chance of happening than the former.

Again, this is all too premature and by the time the playoffs start it's possible the landscape looks different with injuries to key players, the level of play these 4 teams exhibit and other factors. I do expect my opinion to be unpopular but I believe in the GOAT!!

You told me 3 days ago you think the Thunder are favorites to win the West

Trolling you privately on whatsapp =/ the rational basketball discussion I try to have on the PC board.

<- me laughing at your pathetic attempts to save face.

Post #1988 » by **PaulieWal** » Sun Jan 17, 2016 10:26 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote::lol: <- me laughing at your pathetic attempts to save face.

Uh...okay. :-?

Dr Spaceman · Post #1989 » by **Dr Spaceman** » Sun Jan 17, 2016 10:36 pm

PaulieWal wrote:
Dr Spaceman wrote::lol: <- me laughing at your pathetic attempts to save face.

Uh...okay.

I'm joking dude.

GSP · Post #1990 » by **GSP** » Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:57 pm

PaulieWal wrote:I know OKC is in the Cleveland tier but the only reason I still have some hope for OKC is that they have the potential to have the 2 best players on the floor in every single series. Note: I am saying potential not that they will in case they are matched-up with Curry or Leonard.

But people should overlook the Thunder at their own peril. If KD and GOAT (along with Ibaka) are healthy when the playoffs start those 2 could potentially be the 2 best players in every series and could outplay Curry/Leonard easily.

Whats the opinion on Ibaka this season? I think hes had a dip in performance. He used to always get abused by his matchup overall against the more skilled Pfs but his defense hasnt been as consistent and if it wasnt for his reliable jumper he can hit for open shots that he gets from Russ and Kd, he is approaching Perkins level on offense. He literally provides almost nothing on O besides the spacing and ability to hit open jumpers. He doesnt crash the glass on offense, cant handle the ball at all, seems like hes been making less open shots off the pickandpop with Kd compared to like 2014, hes a mediocre finisher and turns the ball over way too much especially for his role. When his jumpers on they look almost unbeatable but hes been too inconsistent

Post #1991 » by **bondom34** » Mon Jan 18, 2016 1:44 am

Serge has been down, but for every bit he's been down Adams has improved. Ibaka can still protect the rim at a high level and helps the defense tons, but IMO Adams is more important to the defense and his offense has come around quite a bit. I think this offseason they trade off Kanter for a cheaper big man and a wing, then next year they have a better shot. Adams and Roberson both are way improved, the issue is the bench defense is generally awful. The offense got better since Payne is in the rotation, but the only somewhat solid defenders are Collison Singler off the bench. Neither really do anything offensively.

GSP · Post #1992 » by **GSP** » Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:03 am

bondom34 wrote:Serge has been down, but for every bit he's been down Adams has improved. Ibaka can still protect the rim at a high level and helps the defense tons, but IMO Adams is more important to the defense and his offense has come around quite a bit. I think this offseason they trade off Kanter for a cheaper big man and a wing, then next year they have a better shot. Adams and Roberson both are way improved, the issue is the bench defense is generally awful. The offense got better since Payne is in the rotation, but the only somewhat solid defenders are Collison Singler off the bench. Neither really do anything offensively.

Singler is one of the worst players in the league IMO. For as much flack as Austin Rivers gets i think Singler is even worse. Nick is still a very solid defender not what he was a couple years ago but yeah, still sound and positionally very good

Post #1993 » by **bondom34** » Mon Jan 18, 2016 2:05 am

GSP wrote:
bondom34 wrote:Serge has been down, but for every bit he's been down Adams has improved. Ibaka can still protect the rim at a high level and helps the defense tons, but IMO Adams is more important to the defense and his offense has come around quite a bit. I think this offseason they trade off Kanter for a cheaper big man and a wing, then next year they have a better shot. Adams and Roberson both are way improved, the issue is the bench defense is generally awful. The offense got better since Payne is in the rotation, but the only somewhat solid defenders are Collison Singler off the bench. Neither really do anything offensively.

Singler is one of the worst players in the league IMO. For as much flack as Austin Rivers gets i think Singler is even worse. Nick is still a very solid defender not what he was a couple years ago but yeah, still sound and positionally very good

Yeah, he's been awful (Singler). The last 10 or so games he's at least been playable, early on he wasn't even that. Now he at least brings some defense (which is the biggest prob w/ the bench), but other than an occasional 3, nothing much else.

Post #1994 » by **Moonbeam** » Mon Jan 18, 2016 10:07 am

Still super bummed about David Bowie.

ronnymac2 · Post #1995 » by **ronnymac2** » Mon Jan 18, 2016 6:16 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:I've been tracking the 5 man unit of the bench trio (Mills/Ginobili/Diaw) plus Leonard and Aldridge since the beginning of the season since right away it showed "death lineup" potential. It's now the Spurs second most used lineup with 73 total minutes logged.
Net Rating: 36.7
Off rating: 123.1
Def rating: 86.5

That lineup has a TS% of 64.

That is incredible. That lineup is perfect for the way the game is played today.

euliss · Post #1996 » by **euliss** » Mon Jan 18, 2016 8:46 pm

I dunno how much you guys enjoy podcasting, but i recently began listening to the Over and Back Classic NBA podcast and it's quickly become one of my favorites to listen to

ronnymac2 · Post #1997 » by **ronnymac2** » Mon Jan 18, 2016 9:09 pm

euliss wrote:I dunno how much you guys enjoy podcasting, but i recently began listening to the Over and Back Classic NBA podcast and it's quickly become one of my favorites to listen to

I love podcasts. Is it all old-school NBA? How much do they go over current NBA topics?

euliss · Post #1998 » by **euliss** » Mon Jan 18, 2016 9:20 pm

ronnymac2 wrote:
euliss wrote:I dunno how much you guys enjoy podcasting, but i recently began listening to the Over and Back Classic NBA podcast and it's quickly become one of my favorites to listen to

I love podcasts. Is it all old-school NBA? How much do they go over current NBA topics?

http://hardwoodparoxysm.com/category/podium-game-podcasts/over-and-back/

They talk plenty of current events, but they did over 50+ episodes dedicated to doing a top 50 players project similar to what the pc board did

ronnymac2 · Post #1999 » by **ronnymac2** » Mon Jan 18, 2016 10:12 pm

1. I've been thinking about a few things today. I think Tim Duncan might be encroaching upon top-3 territory in terms of player value. I think if he finishes this year - not with anything special, just finishes the year healthy - he goes over Hakeem and Shaq. That longevity as a truly impactful, productive player is too great to ignore. He's right on the heels of Jordan. And maybe a season or two after that, KAJ (My GOAT). I mean, it's like, 20 years now. And he's still that damn good.

2. The time I took away from RealGM has allowed me to see that I at one time personally attached myself to the arguments for and against players and teams. It is a trapping of what is otherwise a nourishing environment (forum on the internet focused on debate among people with a common interest). I let my ego take over and fall into that trap sometimes, and it colored my perceptions in an unresourceful way. My analysis of players and teams remained static at times despite current player/team growth and past player/team information being made available. Let my story be a lesson if you feel yourself going in that direction. Don't let it happen to you!

3. An idea: Can a player's average goodness (Or how about average contribution to 5-man lineups) be conveyed this way?

( (His USG% w/ Individual ORTG) + ((100 USG%-His USG%) w/ other 4 players ORTG) ) across his minutes per game

+

( (His defensive USG% w/ opposition's individual ORTG) + ((100 USG%-His defensive USG%) w/opposition's individual ORTG across plays where he doesn't have defensive USG%) across his minutes per game

For example, take a made-up swingman named Vance Carter.

( (30 USG% w/ 109 ORTG) + (70 USG% w/ 117 ORTG) ) in 37 MPG
+
(13 Defensive USG% w/109 ORTG) + (87 Defensive USG% w/ 108 ORTG) in 37 MPG

I don't remember ElGee's exact description of defensive USG%, but something like what his definition was.

Obviously the challenges then would be to expand the formula to explain how Vance Carter is affecting the remaining 70 USG% on offense and 87 defensive USG%.

I think creation, tangible leadership, passing, spacing, and receiving are the main ways Vance can affect the remaining 70 USG% on offense. I guess tangible leadership (auditory communication), physical intimidation, boxing out, ball denial, etc. are ways Vance can affect the remaining 87 defensive USG%. Below in the spoiler, I have how I think offense can be analyzed.

Spoiler:

To me, this goes to show how relatively powerless all of our GOAT players and superstars truly are compared to what we think they can do. It also illustrates how powerful a role player, or even an eighth guy off the bench of your traditionally built contender, can be.

4. The above is why I am so mesmerized by the minutes and lineup optimization of San Antonio. They have so many different lineups they can use that they can actually go full tilt for 100 USG% over 48 MPG. A team dependent upon a superstar's 40 MPG is limited in a sense because what happens in those other 8 minutes?! I suppose the answer for that team is to have a PG off your bench that can slow the pace on both sides of the ball and limit the amount of possessions each team gets in those 8 minutes (basically limit the damage).

The practical application of what the Spurs do is that in an economic environment where basic box-score stats deeply impact a player's market value, most of the players on the Spurs have unspectacular raw box score stats, so they can hold onto those guys on reasonable deals, which further helps chemistry and habit. Is that a strategy of the Spurs' front office, or just a residual effect?

E-Balla · Post #2000 » by **E-Balla** » Wed Jan 20, 2016 2:08 pm

ronnymac2 wrote:1. I've been thinking about a few things today. I think Tim Duncan might be encroaching upon top-3 territory in terms of player value. I think if he finishes this year - not with anything special, just finishes the year healthy - he goes over Hakeem and Shaq. That longevity as a truly impactful, productive player is too great to ignore. He's right on the heels of Jordan. And maybe a season or two after that, KAJ (My GOAT). I mean, it's like, 20 years now. And he's still that damn good.

If you treat your GOAT list like a total career value list yeah I think KAJ is probably the only person over Duncan. Personally I've recently out Duncan over Magic at 4th on my list. His career consistency is absurd especially on D and I think he's easily the 2nd best defender ever.

3. An idea: Can a player's average goodness (Or how about average contribution to 5-man lineups) be conveyed this way?

( (His USG% w/ Individual ORTG) + ((100 USG%-His USG%) w/ other 4 players ORTG) ) across his minutes per game

+

( (His defensive USG% w/ opposition's individual ORTG) + ((100 USG%-His defensive USG%) w/opposition's individual ORTG across plays where he doesn't have defensive USG%) across his minutes per game

For example, take a made-up swingman named Vance Carter.

( (30 USG% w/ 109 ORTG) + (70 USG% w/ 117 ORTG) ) in 37 MPG
+
(13 Defensive USG% w/109 ORTG) + (87 Defensive USG% w/ 108 ORTG) in 37 MPG

I don't remember ElGee's exact description of defensive USG%, but something like what his definition was.

Obviously the challenges then would be to expand the formula to explain how Vance Carter is affecting the remaining 70 USG% on offense and 87 defensive USG%.

I think creation, tangible leadership, passing, spacing, and receiving are the main ways Vance can affect the remaining 70 USG% on offense. I guess tangible leadership (auditory communication), physical intimidation, boxing out, ball denial, etc. are ways Vance can affect the remaining 87 defensive USG%. Below in the spoiler, I have how I think offense can be analyzed.

Spoiler:
To me, an offensive player can impact a game in the following ways.

I. Scoring Efficiency (Volume and True Shooting Percentage)

II. Offensive Rebounds

III. Turnovers

IV. Creation

1. Create for Yourself. Not reliant on others to score points. Jamal Crawford. Al Jefferson. Corliss Williamson.

2. Create for Others. Most point guards to some degree. Passing/playmaking load a player can take on. Ricky Rubio. Joakim Noah.

3. Create for Yourself and Others. Your typical all-time great offensive anchor. Steve Nash. Magic Johnson. Larry Bird. KAJ. Michael Jordan. Shaq. Oscar Robertson.

4. Create something out of nothing for shot clock purposes. Best as a moderate minutes 6th man (usually a wing) who gives offense some variance. JR Smith, Crawford, Nick Young. Superstar smalls like Jordan, Kobe Bryant, Chris Paul, and LeBron James can offer this, too.

V. Tangible Leadership and/or High IQ passers

1. Knows his role, doesn't try to do anything crazy, keeps the ball moving, good at post-entry passes, swing passes. Typically low turnover. Shane Battier, Horace Grant, Robert Horry, Rick Fox.

A. Offensive stars or superstars who do this have a special lubricating effect on the offense. Larry Bird. Detlef Schremphf. Kevin Garnett.

2. Initiators. Smart players who thoroughly exploit mismatches for teammates. Smart players who set up a play, or call a play. 2011 Jason Kidd expertly setting up the Dirk Nowitzki/Jason Terry pick-n-roll. 2013 Pablo Prigioni manipulating the defense and having patience to deliver the ball to Carmelo Anthony in a good spot in the midpost. Scottie Pippen seeing an overplay on the wing when he looks at Jordan and instead passes to Horace Grant at the high-post, knowing that's the less turnover prone way of getting the ball to MJ eventually.

VI. Spacing and Receiving

1. Shooting

A. Elite stand-still 3-pointer shooter (Steve Novak) or pressure-release 2-point mid-range shooter (Udonis Haslem).

B. Gravity Shooters (Kyle Korver, Reggie Miller, Ray Allen) who distort defenses with player movement. Quick hitting attacks. Super-efficient low-resistance offense that does not cannibalize other types of offensive plays or players.

2. Activity

A. Offensive rebounding activity/threat. Player needs to be face-guarded. Body must be kept on player at all times. (Ben Wallace, Dennis Rodman, Tyson Chandler, Shaq).

B. Gravity Shooters (Korver, Miller, Allen).

C. Screeners And Rollers. Tim Duncan and Wes Unseld set great legal screens to get guys open. Helps flow. Rollers are guys like DeAndre Jordan, Tyson Chandler, who have the hands/horizontal-to-vertical athleticism/hands/touch to be elite finishing threats off a pick and on the move.

D. Off-ball Cutters. Thank Dwyane Wade, Tony Allen, Sidney Moncrief, Jimmy Butler. Can finish at the rim well.

E. Transition Monsters. Too athletic and energetic to be stopped. Marques Johnson, James Worthy.

F. Post-Up. Doesn't need to be an offensive anchor type. Just a guy who can force the issue by constantly getting good position along the baseline and around the hoop. Abuse a matchup.

3. Superstar Gravity

A. Being double teamed off-ball and/or on-ball opens things up for teammates. This affect can be fully maximized with a replete skillset and unselfish attitude.

Now for me, I like looking at USG%, Minutes, and Individual Offensive Rating to approximate I., II., and III. All of that is included in individual offensive rating, and it's much better than only looking at True Shooting Percentage, which only gives the scoring side anyway.

Creation, tangible leadership, passing, spacing, and receiving are not captured by the traditional boxscore. Basically it's just assists and 3-point field goal attempts, all without context. That's why I appreciate SportsVU and other stat-tracking type of studies. And the eye-test.

To me, this goes to show how relatively powerless all of our GOAT players and superstars truly are compared to what we think they can do. It also illustrates how powerful a role player, or even an eighth guy off the bench of your traditionally built contender, can be.

1. I don't think any rigid formula can be applied to numbers to get a good base for player strength but I will say I do take USG vs ORTG into account probably way more than most people on this board. I just think turnovers are the worst possible offensive result and TS% doesn't take that into account.

2. That last paragraph is what I've been saying for the last few years. I just don't believe any single player has been over an absolute +6.5-7.0 PPP level. There's too many team factors to take into account. I also think a team has as much to do with player performance as that player's own ability. Kevin Love and the Sixers clearly show the effect that both the fit and talent around you can have.

4. The above is why I am so mesmerized by the minutes and lineup optimization of San Antonio. They have so many different lineups they can use that they can actually go full tilt for 100 USG% over 48 MPG. A team dependent upon a superstar's 40 MPG is limited in a sense because what happens in those other 8 minutes?! I suppose the answer for that team is to have a PG off your bench that can slow the pace on both sides of the ball and limit the amount of possessions each team gets in those 8 minutes (basically limit the damage).

The practical application of what the Spurs do is that in an economic environment where basic box-score stats deeply impact a player's market value, most of the players on the Spurs have unspectacular raw box score stats, so they can hold onto those guys on reasonable deals, which further helps chemistry and habit. Is that a strategy of the Spurs' front office, or just a residual effect?

I feel its a residual effect. The Spurs care about winning first and usually having major guys take smaller roles helps you win. Slo Mo for example would have consistent PT on most other teams and he'd have the ball a lot more when he's out there but there's no way his effect on the game would be as good as it is now on any other team. By having him take a smaller role he stays efficient and they've been able to keep him relatively engaged on D.