Retro POY '08-09

[mysticbb]

Why would you drop Wade for the postseason? He was facing a vastly superior team with a weak supporting cast and they nearly won. He was awesome in the three wins, G7 was a blowout, G5 was a blowout, which leaves games 1 and 4. Is that what you're referring to - G1 and G4?

I ranked him 3rd in the regular season and he played in average worse. Bryant and Howard were behind him (and Paul), but played overall better in the playoffs and had the team success. Imho you have to give players credit for what they did, not just for what they could have possible done with a better support.

The argument for Paul doesn't really count. His PER dropped from 30 to 16.1 in the postseason. That is going from GOAT level play to average, I can't dismiss this. The Hornets lost a game at home by 58 points, that isn't just a normal bad game or so.

[drza]

Finding myself thinking about Howard. He's definitely in my top 5 - but I don't like the way his offensive performance varies so much between opponents. In the championship, the series would have been a totally different story if Howard had done to the Lakers what he did to the Cavs. Hard to imagine Wade having that kind of problem.

Also, I'm pretty set in who I think were the 5 top players. I've never understood how people think it's iffy whether Paul was in that echelon. Paul didn't just put up big box score numbers - his +/- numbers were huge too, and 49 wins is nothing laugh at. I will admit though that his playoffs last year weren't good, is that what's stuck in people's minds?

I'm more iffy on Howard than Paul. Now, since I did this last year, I've come to think Howard is underrated for his defense (perhaps even by me at the time), but I have similar reservations about him. The reality is, Orlando not only had a very good and deep team, but they caught blazing fire for two rounds to advance to the Finals before cooling off. When they did, I would have liked to at least have seen Dwight have a bigger impact on the games. Perhaps that's too much to ask versus Gasol and Odom (who were great in the Finals). I don't know...

I'm surprised Dirk hasn't been discussed more.

I agree with both of you about Howard. It's always given me a slight feeling of unease to include him among the super-duper stars of the game, and until just now I've had trouble putting my finger on why. I'm the type that forms opinions from my gut while watching something, then likes to go back and confirm/adjust my impressions based upon more objective measures/stats. It's always thrown me that Howard's advanced stats look so elite from '09, when my impression was always that he was closer to Carmelo impact than LeBron impact.

But right now, when looking closer after reading these two posts, I wonder if I might have put my finger on it. Howard did great in both the regular and postseason in the box score based advanced stats like PER, Win Shares, or Wins Produced. He dominated the defensive box score stats (huge rebounds and blocks), and his scoring/scoring efficiency measure well despite his questionable passing, poor free throw shooting, and lack of 1-on-1 offensive moves.

BUT, he measured out much lower in the "impact" plus-minus stats. According to Illardi's APM calculation, Howard was a paltry +1.46 overall in the regular season, comprised of a reasonable-but-unexciting +3.08 on defense and an actual small net negative on offense. This result was duplicated but even more-so in the 82games.com playoff on-court/off-court +/- measure, which had Howard as a -7.8 for the playoffs.

I'm still pondering/working through this, but I wonder if Howard's '08-'09 suffered from a bit of Marcus Camby/Shawn Marion syndrome. On these boards Camby is regularly criticized as someone that put up great box score stats that were greater than his actual defensive impact when he won his DPoYs, while Marion was another example of an efficient 20-point scorer whose stats belied that his lack of ability to create/pass on offense really made him more of an offensive role player than a superstar.

Howard's unique size/ability allowed the Magic to build the type of team that they did, which has to count in his favor. But I do wonder if, once that team was built, the team would have suffered dramatically if he would have been replaced by Gortat on a more regular basis. Whatever the case, I just am not quite able to deem Howard's '09 among the great big man seasons that we've seen in recent years.

[ElGee]

With regards to Paul, is everyone forgetting that team was a mess? They tried to trade Chandler, then he had to return to the team. West's play dipped a little. Chemistry was a mess. I don't blame Paul for these things.

Why would you drop Wade for the postseason? He was facing a vastly superior team with a weak supporting cast and they nearly won. He was awesome in the three wins, G7 was a blowout, G5 was a blowout, which leaves games 1 and 4. Is that what you're referring to - G1 and G4?

Not to nitpick, but Atlanta wasn't that superior; they had two injured starters for half the series - Marvin Williams and Al Horford. Not to mention Joe Johnson played horribly for 5 out of 7 games and did his best to almost shoot Atlanta out of the series.

No that's fair - I forgot about those injuries. Healthy, 2-8, I'd say they were vastly superior.

EDIT: Keeping in mind Josh Smith was not the player he was this year as well...

[FJS]

1) Lebron James
2) Wade
3) Kobe Bryant
4) Howard
5) Nowitzki

[sp6r=underrated]

I will admit though that his playoffs last year weren't good, is that what's stuck in people's minds?

At least that is in my mind. Wade and Paul dropped due to their postseason play/success, but Paul played really bad. Bryant and Howard made up with their postseason. James seems like a lock for me as the #1.

In the end the question is whether Nowitzki's postseason is good enough to enter the Top 5 or not. I'm not set on this, but I somewhat agree with drza here.

My current list looks like that:

1. James
2. Bryant
3. Howard
4. Wade
5. Paul

HM: Nowitzki

I probably change the 5th spot, if I can find the time to re-watch some highlights from that season for Paul and Nowitzki.

Dal Den game 5 highlights http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vlEGfkuHMBY

DA/SA Game 5 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37JYITSPgZU

great discussion so far

[Doctor MJ]

BUT, he measured out much lower in the "impact" plus-minus stats. According to Illardi's APM calculation, Howard was a paltry +1.46 overall in the regular season, comprised of a reasonable-but-unexciting +3.08 on defense and an actual small net negative on offense. This result was duplicated but even more-so in the 82games.com playoff on-court/off-court +/- measure, which had Howard as a -7.8 for the playoffs.

Want to comment on the APM briefly. I'm a big supporter of the stat - but - the big problem with it is that if theirs not enough "randomization" between teammates, you get weak precision. This is why you often see APM leaders done over 2 years.

Comparing regular seasons for Howard:
(from 82games)
'09 team net +/-: +9.0
'10 team net +/-: +10.8

(from basketballvalue)
'09 Ilardi APM: 1.04
'10 Ilardi APM: 24.97

Honestly, I use APM, but I don't think it has enough credibility that you can use it against Howard here.

Should be noted though that if you look 82games in '09, Howard doesn't separate from his teammates the way LeBron, or Wade, or Paul does - while he does separate better in '10.

Also though - what you point out about Howard's negative +/- in the post-season is interesting.

[Baller 24]

Dirk's underrated IMO, but Chris Paul's statistically mind blowing, I want to give Melo he edge for team success, but I think Chris Paul's statistical season is just astonishing, pretty well up there with even the BEST Point Guards of all-time, not from a success standpoint of course.

[CellarDoor]

I feel like Lebron's comfortably #1, and Dwight's comfortably #4 on my list. For reason's already stated. Dwight's big issue is foul trouble and consistency.

#2 and #3 are between Kobe and Wade. Wade had the better individual RS, but Kobe was better in the POs statistically and he's got the hardware.

#5 goes to CP3. As much as I'm still not that impressed with him (relative to greats) and I think Deron is better. There was very little proof of that.

1- Lebron
2-Kobe
3-Wade
4-Dwight
5-CP3

[ronnymac2]

My criteria is going to be based on who the best players were. Who could be the closest thing to a constant in the playoffs? It's not about elevating your game as much as it is about you being so good to begin with that no matter what the playoff circumstance, you are a constant source of effectiveness for your team? If your team somehow didn't make the playoffs (Ex: When we do 2010, I'm not going to disparage cp3 on the basis of his team not getting into the playoffs), I'm not going to vilify you, but it does cause me to sort of manufacture how I believe you'd do in a playoff setting.

Stats aren't the be all and end all, but production is factored in. I am unsure of plus/minus numbers simply because I feel they are so reliant on who your teammates are, but I guess the same can be said for your raw production as well. Both will be taken into account but- if plus/minus says something different than my eyes do, I'm going with my eyes.

Team success gets factored in a little bit, but it matters less than stats even. Now, how you perform in later rounds is important because it shows if you can be effective in another type of setting. So performing well in the finals or CF's helps a bit. But just because you win a title and finals mvp doesn't mean you are in my top3 or top5.

Basically, if we did a player-to-player comparison, who are the five best players? Who is most effective? Then, stats and accolades and team accomplishments are factored in.

I'm not going to officially vote yet, but my top three are Lebron, Wade, and Kobe- in that order. Paul, Howard, Duncan, and Dirk battle for the next two spots. I apologize to Roy, Deron, Yao, Garnett, and Melo, but I think those guys are a little better, and some of you had major injury issues (missing the playoffs DUE TO INJURY when your team is there is a major problem for me). Dwight and Chris are leading the way for those next two spots.

[Silver Bullet]

Anyone here know of a site, where we can filter stats by opponent ? I wanna look at players performances against the best defensive teams - if it is possible without having to create a spreadsheet every time.

[sp6r=underrated]

Anyone here know of a site, where we can filter stats by opponent ? I wanna look at players performances against the best defensive teams - if it is possible without having to create a spreadsheet every time.

Check out the splits for each player

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... lits/2010/

[Sedale Threatt]

1. James -- one of the best seasons in league history, even better in playoffs
2. Bryant -- won Finals MVP en route to fourth ring, cementing place among all-time greats
3. Howard -- DPOY, led team to first Finals berth in 14 years
4. Wade -- first-ballot Hall of Famer has his best individual season
5. Paul -- managed to improve on MVP runner-up season

If we go strictly stats, I take James, Wade, Paul, Bryant, Nowitzki. But I'm going to try to balance individual with team achievement, weighted heavily towards the playoffs.

[Optimism Prime]

Lebron: As has been said--an utterly dominant year from start to end. He played like the MVP, and then raised his numbers in the playoffs. Did he win it all? No. Doesn't diminish the fact, to me, that he was the best player in the league. He's the player from last year I'd want most on my team; he raised his defense to a new level, energized his teammates, and did everything you could ask from a franchise player. Just looked at his numbers from the playoffs. The Cavs swept two teams and then lost a bad matchup in 6. I don't know what else he could've done; they lost two games by a basket. If Delonte made the shot in game 1, and he hit the game-winner in game 4... would we have a different opinion of his season? I wouldn't. He was the best last year, and I'd take a couple wrong bounces from a season like that over any others.

Wade: Willed his (pretty crappy) team to the playoffs. Scoring leader, most blocks for a small guy, two steals a game. Incredibly well-rounded. And he was healthy, the main argument you'd use against him most other years. Also, had the most memorable moment of the season (at least in my mind): the game-winner in Chicago.

Kobe: Like most others, I can go either way between Kobe and Wade between 2 and 3. Switch their places, and I think the Heat get a bit worse, and the Lakers stay about the same. Main reason is because of locker-room personalities... I could see that Heat team with Kobe being about like the 07 Lakers where Kobe wanted out. Lakers with Wade still would've been dominant. Slight edge to Wade here.

Paul: Point guard season for the ages. Highest PER for a 6'3 or under player ever... any normal year, would've been the highest in the league, but was topped by Lebron and Wade. Forgot how bad the playoffs were for him, though... yikes. 30 to 16.1 PER? Getting blown out by 58? Yikes. I tend to pay more attention to the regular season than the playoffs, because they're totally different in zoning in defenses, amount of time, and the fact that I hate the "rings automatically make Player A better than Player B" argument.

The last spot is where it gets a bit murky for me. I could go with the homer pick of Yao (in justification, they made it out of the playoffs, and another MVP voter listed him), the player I want to put here in Howard (but his up-and-down offense just... I can't pick him. I want to. He's a dominant defensive presence, but you need to be able to demand the ball in crunch time and make things happen. He's just too much of a liability on that end of the floor. I don't get it.)

So... much as this pains me... I have to go with Dirk for my last spot here. He's been consistently great, if only sometimes "superb." This was another great season for him. It's strange that one of the few truly unique players in history is so good, yet so overlooked. You know what you're getting from him: 25 points, 9 boards, a couple assists, a block and steal, and a playoffs berth. Every year. In a year when there's an easy MVP choice, some solid 2-4 players, and some flawed fifths... I'll take the known quantity.

1 Lebron James
2 Dwyane Wade
3 Kobe Bryant
4 Chris Paul
5 Dirk Nowitzki
HM: Dwight Howard

[TrueLAfan]

1. LeBron
2. Kobe
3. Wade
4. Howard
5. Paul

HM: Dirk

I struggled with Kobe and Wade...I really thought Wade did more for his team in the regular season, and would have bet on him carrying a better team much further into the playoffs. That's not Wade's fault (and it's a reason why playoff games, while important, aren't that much more important). But I'll go with Kobe; it's essentially a toss-up for me.

As much as I like Dirk, I have to go with CP3 in 2009. I agree wiht the sentiment that Dirk sometimes gets overlooked (though maybe not this year)...but Paul was simply a bit better in 2009.

[drza]

BUT, he measured out much lower in the "impact" plus-minus stats. According to Illardi's APM calculation, Howard was a paltry +1.46 overall in the regular season, comprised of a reasonable-but-unexciting +3.08 on defense and an actual small net negative on offense. This result was duplicated but even more-so in the 82games.com playoff on-court/off-court +/- measure, which had Howard as a -7.8 for the playoffs.

Want to comment on the APM briefly. I'm a big supporter of the stat - but - the big problem with it is that if theirs not enough "randomization" between teammates, you get weak precision. This is why you often see APM leaders done over 2 years.

Comparing regular seasons for Howard:
(from 82games)
'09 team net +/-: +9.0
'10 team net +/-: +10.8

(from basketballvalue)
'09 Ilardi APM: 1.04
'10 Ilardi APM: 24.97

Honestly, I use APM, but I don't think it has enough credibility that you can use it against Howard here.

Should be noted though that if you look 82games in '09, Howard doesn't separate from his teammates the way LeBron, or Wade, or Paul does - while he does separate better in '10.

Also though - what you point out about Howard's negative +/- in the post-season is interesting.

I would also be hesitant to unilaterally state that Howard wasn't as good due purely to APM, which is why I was so careful with my wording in the post of mine that you quoted. I'm still kicking around how I feel on the subject, but as I pointed out it was my viewing of Howard that initially made me question his super-duperstar-ness, not the stats. Since, to varying degrees, all of the main +/- stats from that season seem to tell the story that Howard wasn't the difference-maker on a team impact level that his box score stats may have suggested and it jives with my visual interpretation, I am considering giving it more weight.

Said another way, I remember when I realized that Duncan had "it". I remember exactly when I knew that Garnett had "it". I remember when Dirk convinced me that he had "it". All of the players for the past 25 years that I consider ultra elite, there has been a time that I was watching and just realized that they had that nebulous "it" that makes some players the best of the best. Then, years later, in most cases I can go back through the advanced stats and pinpoint exactly when they made their leap, and it roughly corresponds to about when my observations would have suggested.

Dwight has yet to show me that he has "it". He flirts with it sometimes, but ultimately I haven't seen it yet. So the fact that the advanced stats from '09 are ambivalent about whether he was really a super-duper star jives with my own view, and makes me feel more comfortable that what I thought I was (or wasn't) seeing with Howard really does have basis in reality.

[ElGee]

I'll add something about Dwight that is essentially impossible to measure (even in film study, outside of the box score). Everyone attempts to argue he changes/alters a lot of shots at the rim and that's not shown in blocks. That's true, and somewhat measurable (say, opp FG% in the paint, which Orlando scores well in according to hoopdata).

What's more immeasurable is how many opportunities he shuts off in general within about a 12-foot radius around the hoop. His length means he prevents Orlando from breaking down on pick and roll defense, he can take half a step and shut off passing lanes, and again, even a half-step rotation is deterring penetration or passing into his area. This jumps out on film more than his shot blocking, or even shots altered. Teams know this -- when they ignore it (Charlotte, game 2, 8 or 9 blocks by half?) he just gets his hands on more balls.

As for his blocks, there is the research paper on "value of blocks" by Huizinga that shows Howard's are by far the most valuable (I think the paper had his blocks value last season as the highest of the decade). Not all blocks are created equal.

EDIT: Howard's blocks were actually the least valuable in the study, not the most.

[ElGee]

Why would you drop Wade for the postseason? He was facing a vastly superior team with a weak supporting cast and they nearly won. He was awesome in the three wins, G7 was a blowout, G5 was a blowout, which leaves games 1 and 4. Is that what you're referring to - G1 and G4?

I ranked him 3rd in the regular season and he played in average worse. Bryant and Howard were behind him (and Paul), but played overall better in the playoffs and had the team success. Imho you have to give players credit for what they did, not just for what they could have possible done with a better support.

The argument for Paul doesn't really count. His PER dropped from 30 to 16.1 in the postseason. That is going from GOAT level play to average, I can't dismiss this. The Hornets lost a game at home by 58 points, that isn't just a normal bad game or so.

Do you mean Wade played worse than he did in the regular season, or do you mean he played worse than Kobe/Howard in the playoffs?

[shawngoat23]

1) LeBron James


2) Kobe Bryant
3) Dwight Howard
4) Dwyane Wade
5) Chris Paul

Based on regular season production, I was strongly considering going James-Wade-Paul-Bryant-Howard, and that's how I would have rated their impact that year. However, in previous "All-Time List" voting, I put a lot of weight on playoff performance and team success, and I'm trying to be somewhat consistent with that. Not enough to move anyone over the King, who had a historical year, but enough to move Kobe and Dwight above the rest.

[Silver Bullet]

Pretty homogeneous mix so far -

I wish we wouldn't focus on statistics so much, but I suppose there aren't many alternatives.
Just a few smattering of thoughts:

- I'm on the fence with Paul. His statistics are always impeccable, yet I always have this vibe from him, that he dominates the ball way too much than is healthy for a contending team. I mean, if you look at either Nash or Deron, they're not within touching distance of Paul statistically. Yet, I personally think they both run their respective teams better. (Not saying, I'm penalizing Paul for this, I wouldn't mind hearing arguments both ways)

- A few names that might get overlooked when we're focusing too much on statistics:
Nowitzki: The guy was a monster in the playoffs, no one thought they could get by the Spurs, yet they did, with relative ease.

Duncan: Always gets overlooked if we go by statistics only. Defensive impact is still unmeasurable.

Melo: Had to totally change his game right at the start of the season to accommodate Billups. Took his team to the conference finals and was a virtually unstoppable scorer at times. Played probably the best defense of his life in the conference finals.

- Compiled some stats for players performances vs "Good" teams compared to performances against "Poor" teams.
Source: http://www.82games.com/0809/COM4S0.HTM



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[Doctor MJ]

Cool chart Silver.