RealGM Top 100 List #15

[Gongxi]

He's my next nominee, actually.

[penbeast0]

No one still has posted anything to indicate that Ewing is better than Gilmore or Dwight . . . both stronger, higher percentage shooting, better rebounding, and probably better defensive centers. I can see a good argument either way but no one is making the effort (including me). I tentatively have it Artis then Ewing then Dwight but am willing to be convinced otherwise.

[lorak]

Wow I didn't expect Oscar to beat West. That's like Bird beating Magic, I mean it's not necessarily wrong, but usually Magic and West win that one.

Fortunately there is some justice on the world and not always Lakers player is the winner

[Laimbeer]

Wow I didn't expect Oscar to beat West. That's like Bird beating Magic, I mean it's not necessarily wrong, but usually Magic and West win that one.

Fortunately there is some justice on the world and not always Lakers player is the winner

You can take credit for changing my vote there, but I always reserve the right to change my mind day to day.

[colts18]

According to B-R, Ewing anchored the best defense in NBA history (93 Knicks).

[ElGee]

Even in the career standings, giving Moses solid credit for some of his lackluster (but statistically plentiful) later seasons, he's only about 1.5 prime James seasons better.

Moses Malone's best 6 year stretch was from 1978/79 to 1983/84 with 110.99 in that metric.

I guess the difference between Moses here (and going over James) and Moses behind this pod of guys is how high one holds his second half of the 80s, no? I just don't value these seasons very much...but maybe others do. Why?

Well, would you make an argument for Nowitzki over Moses Malone in an All-Time Ranking?

Yes. I have Dirk a spot ahead of Moses, both behind Barkley and West. Dirk vs. Moses is a fair question though...I'll side with Nowitzki. The argument for Moses is better peak, but I like Dirk in just about all other areas of relevance.

Where do you actually have Nowitzki?

[Baller 24]

According to B-R, Ewing anchored the best defense in NBA history (93 Knicks).

Bingo. Not only that but he did it consistently over a long period of time. He's also offensively a lot more potent than Howard. He might not shoot as high of a percentage, but let's take into account the fact that he was a face-up player, his shot attempts are significantly higher at peak/prime form compared to Howard.

Then also compare accolades relative to to their era during their respective positions, and Ewing makes up a lot of ground. Defensively you can slide with Ewing, pretty easily from the presented statistical evidence, and while Howard's got a clear gap in terms of rebounding, Ewing's offensive arsenal isn't limited to a small number up shot attempts.

He isn't afraid to take shots is what I'm stating, I don't mark efficiency as the clear point in terms of advantage offensively (if we did than guys like Kevin Martin would sore up to the top 100), and then focus more on passing and his abilities as a ball handler and I don't think it's close. And if we're comparing overall body of work, what's Howard done so special that he's in the top 30/35 over Ewing? He certainly hasn't put a body of work like Wade or LeBron to bring anything into equation.

Howard's had a lot of issues regarding turnovers, he has trouble passing the ball and facilitating any movement other than passing it out to the open three point shooter, where the offense try's to re-shift. Check out their turnover percentages, Howard's got a clear flaw in this aspect of his game.

[mysticbb]

Where do you actually have Nowitzki?

My vote this time is Jerry West again. But after that I don't see really one player being clearly better than Nowitzki.

Barkley has the biggest case, but I think Barkley's impact was not beyond the boxscore numbers and Nowitzki beats him out in the playoffs. For example, Barkley missed 22 games in 1991 and 1992, the 76ers had in average -1.5 without him. In the 142 with him they were -0.6. That is a pretty small impact for someone with with an average of 26.6 PER and 0.229 WS/48, don't you think?

Moses Malone had a lower peak than Nowitzki in terms of boxscore metrics, and the +/- numbers are showing that Nowitzki for the last 11 years is in average just slightly beaten out by LeBron James and now ahead of Garnett and Duncan, thus we can very well assume that the high boxscore metrics are reflecting the impact here. I don't see that for Moses Malone. When he joined the Rockets they also added John Lucas and the improvement was marginal. When he missed a lot of games in 1977/78 we have also some missed game samples for Calvin Murphy and Rudy Tomjanovic (both with +5.2 Net in comparison to Moses' +4.8). When the Rockets got more minutes from those players, they played fairly well. I think the Rockets around Moses Malone were rather underrated, and Malone due to his high raw boxscore numbers overrated. The 76ers didn't make a huge jump when Moses Malone joined them and that was supposed to be his peak. When he missed 8 games in 1986 the 76ers were still a 2.07 SRS team without him (adjusted for the SOS and differences in home and road games) while being 2.51 SRS with him. That is not the difference of a high impact player.
Additional to that is Moses Malone in average weaker in the playoffs than in the regular season (if we compare year to year, not just career averages), while Nowitzki stays basically equal.

If we look at it in the way of prime seasons, we can see Nowitzki being pretty consistent for 11 years, his boxscore metrics are similar with the exception of his two year peak, and his +/- values too. When I read that Moses Malone beat out Kareem Abdul-Jabbar twice in the playoffs, I will counter with Nowitzki beating Duncan twice and Garnett once. For Moses Malone I get 8 seasons like that on a lower level in average than Nowitzki's 11 seasons.

I think one very underrated part about Nowitzki's game is the incredible floor spacing he provides. The Mavericks without him can't do it that way and the players are performing way worse. Take Barea for example who made only 24% of his field goal attempts during the playoffs when Nowitzki wasn't on the court with him. Barea became quasi useless, because without Nowitzki taking out the agile bigger defender (most times the best help defender) Barea had a way lower chance to drive to the basket. More of his shot attempts became long jumpers or even three point shots during that time without Nowitzki. Jason Kidd becomes Ason Kidd again, when Nowitzki isn't on the court, because Kidd doesn't have the time anymore to set his feet correctly for the shot unlike in situations with Nowitzki. It is incredible and it happens for 11 straight years. In 11 straight years the Mavericks are winning during the time Nowitzki is on the court while getting outscored without him. Take 2003 for example, when Nowitzki was on the court the Mavericks scored 11.6 points more than the opponent, without him they got outscored by -6.5, that is like in this season when they had -6.1 without him and with him +10.2. That is not a fluke anymore, that is constant impact by a great player. And at that we see a much better improvement than for say Barkley or Moses Malone.

And I made my case for Nowitzki over James already. James has the higher two peak years, but in the next 6 seasons I don't see any advantage for James. Then I have still 3 more seasons of Nowitzki and nothing by James while not taking Nowitzki's rookie and sophomore season into account. The higher peak is something to think about, but for me the additional years on a pretty high level for Nowitzki are the decision maker. That might look different in 3 years, but right now I have to go with Nowitzki.
And I guess those who are valuing on-ball play a lot more than the ability to draw attention off the ball, will find James the better pick, they will also not understand why the Mavericks with Nowitzki played so much better also in the finals when Nowitzki wasn't shooting well. Not paying attention to those details off the ball is one of the reasons why I think Nowitzki is underrated by a lot of people. And James inability to move without the ball very well was one of the reasons the Heat played overall worse than the Mavericks.

Well, that is my case for Nowitzki at #16 after Jerry West and over LeBron James, Charles Barkley and Moses Malone.

[penbeast0]

How is your case for Nowitski v. Pettit? . . . . also a stretch the floor 4 with great size, but one with advantages in foul drawing (large), rebounding (less so), and defense (by rep). Both have one superlative finals that won a ring; Nowitzki outside that one famous game 7 is probably the better clutch player and the more efficient from the floor relative to the league (though not necessarily when foul drawing is added in). Anything I missed?

[therealbig3]

Vote: Jerry West
Nomination: Elgin Baylor

[therealbig3]

I think we're approaching that clusterf of PGs we were predicting before...Frazier, Nash, Kidd, Payton, Cousy, and Isiah are fast approaching.

[shawngoat23]

Vote: Jerry West
Nominate: John Havlicek

I'm still not certain about my nomination, but I'm definitely voting for Jerry West, as I have for a while now. Given the combination of peak ability, longevity, accolades, team accomplishments, intangibles, leadership, clutch performance, etc., I don't think anyone else is really on his level among the remaining players.

[Wavy Q]

been on vacay so i havent been able to vote, however

Vote: West

Nominate: Pippen

[pancakes3]

Vote West,
Nominate Havlicek

[the_prophet]

V:Jerry West
N:Elgin Baylor

[penbeast0]

Here is how I have the voting shaping up at the halfway mark. Someone correct me if they find any mistakes . . .

VOTE
West -- Doctor MJ, penbeast0, cpower, Dr Mufasa , therealbig3, shawngoat23, Jay From LA, pancakes3
Moses – JordansBulls, FJS
LeBron – ElGee, Gongxi

NOMINATION
Nash -- Doctor MJ, ElGee,
Pippen -- penbeast0, Fencer reregistered, Jay From LA
Drexler -- JordansBulls
Havlicek – cpower, shawngoat23, pancakes3
Stockton – FJS
Baylor – Dr Mufasa, Gongxi, therealbig3

NOT ON LIST
Pistol Pete Vecsey, the_prophet

[Sedale Threatt]

Vote, Moses
Nominate, Baylor

[Fencer reregistered]

I'll join the West stampede. And I'll change my nominee from Pippen to Havlicek.

Perhaps I'll switch over to the 80s and 90s next round.

Here is how I have the voting shaping up at the halfway mark. Someone correct me if they find any mistakes . . .

VOTE
West -- Doctor MJ, penbeast0, cpower, Dr Mufasa , therealbig3, shawngoat23, Jay From LA, pancakes3
Moses – JordansBulls, FJS
LeBron – ElGee, Gongxi

NOMINATION
Nash -- Doctor MJ, ElGee,
Pippen -- penbeast0, Fencer reregistered, Jay From LA
Drexler -- JordansBulls
Havlicek – cpower, shawngoat23, pancakes3
Stockton – FJS
Baylor – Dr Mufasa, Gongxi, therealbig3

NOT ON LIST
Pistol Pete Vecsey, the_prophet

[fatal9]

Vote: Barkley
Nomination: Nash

No one gonna stand up for Barkley or do I have to do it?

[drza]

This is one of the hardest vote that I've had in this project, because no clear candidate jumps out at me. It seems like West has the momentum and is likely to win, Moses still has his adherents for his 3 MVP peak, and LeBron/Dirk are both starting to have their advocates as well. But for me, none of those candidates are fully satisfying when compared to one another.

West vs Moses is the traditional vote right now, the safe vote, but as we've been evaluating those players (both in the RPoY project and in the previous threads in this project) I've found holes that bother me enough that they aren't slam dunk votes here.

The LeBron advocates make some sense to me, because a) I'm of the school that thinks that his failures are more circumstantial narrative than damning indictments, b) I have no doubt that had this vote been taken on June 1st he'd already be in by now and c) I also have no doubt that if this vote is re-taken in 3 years he'd be in by now. But all of that said...the vote wasn't taken 2 months ago, nor is this 3 years from now...and I have to evaluate him on his current resume, which also has holes that bother me enough to give me pause against his current competition.

Then, there's Dirk, who may in fact have the most complete case of those that remain. He's got great longevity, great impact, great box score stats, great team results, and now even has a good narrative for the casual fan. And really, it's this last that gives me pause. I want to be sure that my vote isn't overly colored because he's a flavor-of-the-moment. On the other hand, long before Dirk's championship run I evaluated him as right on the same tier as Barkley, who is likely to be coming off the board in the next 5 players himself. And the long-term evaluation methods for judging Dirk wouldn't be fooled by Dirk's recency narrative, and they all give him great marks.

So, at the moment, I'm still holding off on my vote because I'm still running things through my mind. But I can't lie...if I had to vote right now, I think I'm actually leaning a bit towards Dirk (which is really interesting, because when I started typing this post I would have said that I was likely leaning towards LeBron). I'm going to sleep on it, and see if I've got some new perspective in the morning.