Real GM Top 100 List #53

[penbeast0]

Sid never misses more than 9 games in a season until 87 after serious knee surgery. He was not the same player from then on and was basically a role player and the Bucks weren't the same team, they dropped a level from serious contender to 1st round exit ability although they did pull together and hand around thanks to great performances from Pressey and Pierce in 87.

But taking his +/- from 87-89 is like saying, well, Phoenix doesn't drop that much with Grant Hill on the bench so he must not have been that good in Detroit . . . Moncrief's peak ends with his knee injury, the years from 87 on are like the post Orlando Hill years. If you can show that Milwaukee doesn't miss a beat with Moncrief out from rookie year 1980 to 1986, that's tough to explain; from 87-89 that's not particularly relevant to his peak performance.

I do admit I don't/didn't read the Milwaukee Sentinel but I will say that I've seen the intensity effect at every professional level from performance among lawyers at the Antitrust Division of the Justice Department to performance among pizza delivery drivers at Dominos and its a well established part of any business analysis . . . not just on the sports field.

[ElGee]

It's not from 87-89...it's from 85-87.

???

The 6 games he missed in 1983 the Bucks were +3.2 They were +4.5 with him. After a while, it becomes hard to explain why there is such little difference with and without Moncrief...(other than Milwaukee being really deep and balanced and Moncrief not being that great.)

I've got 219 seasons of with and w/out. By raw net change, Moncrief's rank 168th (1983), 183th (1987), 193th (1985) and 197th (1986). I have a hard time as seeing that as anything other than problematic for Moncrief.

[Dr Positivity]

C'mon, it's not based solely off +/- estimates. I start player evaluations with my eyes and understanding the team. Then I use statistics in conjunction with those. Finally, the examine any PM data looking for trends (since it's often a fuzzy family). The reality is Marques is a complete player - yes, a good comparison is peak Grant Hill, although I think Marques might be a better scorer and defender in his own right - and impressed the heck out of me. Then you see some of the games he had against the very best at the time, his tendency to bring it in big moments (makes sense given his skillset) and the PM estimates of his key teammates.

Well, I think Marques and Hill as scorers is a decent comparison. But Hill's playmaking/Lebron like "run the offense through" ability is on a different level, this is both backed up by Hill's Ast% being literally twice as high in his prime and my (admittedly semi limited) eye test where Marques looks like he was more from the Dominique, Baylor, Worthy type mold, using a lot of his physical talent and off ball slashing ability

PS You also don't mention that Milwaukee's jump comes from offense in 1979...from 101.8 to 106.0. Then 107...and 109. It's not like there was no offensive change with addition of leading scorer/playmaker Marques .

Well, look at Marques assists per game per 36 rank on his teams per season

78 - 13th
79 - 9th
80 - 6th
81 - 4th
82 - 11th
83 - 5th
84 - 7th
85 LAC - 5th
86 LAC - 5th
97 LAC - 6th

Leading playmaker seems like a stretch by that metric, by AST% (way down from the usual passing SG/SFs) and my personal impression of his style of play as a SF off ball "scary as hell near the rim" cutter like Worthy and Dominique - which I believe is how most see him as well

[Doctor MJ]

To commit...

Vote: Ray Allen

Nominate: Marques Johnson

[Dr Positivity]

Just a note on Bernard King vs Paul, who is already voted in

King's 84 is as good as 08 Paul, I think the latter had the better RS but King going insane in the PS makes it just as valuable

Now, the easy thing to say here is that 09 Paul is another epic season and King only has 1. But look at King's 83 PS vs Paul's 09 one. Paul's 17/10/4 .505 TS% for 16.1 PER, vs King's 23/4/2 .63 TS% for 24 PER. Sure, small sample size, but certainly has to close the gap somewhat right?

And certainly GSW King can't be that far off from like 07 and 11 Paul, he was scoring 21-23ppg at some of the highest FG% we've seen at that volume (56-58%) - already a mini scoring machine - and bringing them to 39 and 45 Ws and top 6 offenses in both seasons

I think the argument in favor of both is similar, that it's so hard to get a best player that good even if it's just for 2 years, so I wonder why Paul is getting so much more love than King in this project

[Snakebites]

Vote: Moncrief
Nominate: King

[ElGee]

Mufasa - my mistake. The "scorer/playmaker" slash was literally a slash, as in he can and did play-make and initiate as someone like Pierce could/would. It was not meant to literally indicate he was also the leading playmaker...although in a sense he may have been. Winters and Buckner did less of that from what I can tell despite high assist numbers.

To me, there's a clear separation when watching these players you mention ITO of passing ability, with the edge to Marques (over Wilkins and Worthy).

[Laimbeer]

Vote: Unseld
Nominate: Schayes

[therealbig3]

Great posts on Moncrief by Elgee, and I am convinced that Marques should actually go ahead of Moncrief.

You have a great perimeter defender in Moncrief, but Marques looks like the better offensive player, and he looks like he was actually the Bucks' go-to guy. And Moncrief did have some disappearing acts in the playoffs.

I'm switching my vote:

Vote: Ray Allen

[therealbig3]

My count:

Vote:

Moncrief-4 (penbeast0, Fencer reregistered, ronnymac2, Snakebites)

Allen-3 (Dr Mufasa, Doctor MJ, therealbig3)

Unseld-2 (JordansBulls, Laimbeer)

Lanier-1 (ElGee)

Manu-1 (drza)



Nominate:

Marques Johnson-3 (therealbig3, ElGee, Doctor MJ)

King-2 (ronnymac2, Snakebites)

Gasol-2 (drza, Dr Mufasa)

Penny-1 (JordansBulls)

Schayes-1 (Laimbeer)

B. Jones-1 (penbeast0)

S. Jones-1 (Fencer reregistered)

[penbeast0]

Great posts on Moncrief by Elgee, and I am convinced that Marques should actually go ahead of Moncrief.

You have a great perimeter defender in Moncrief, but Marques looks like the better offensive player, and he looks like he was actually the Bucks' go-to guy. And Moncrief did have some disappearing acts in the playoffs.

I'm switching my vote:

Vote: Ray Allen

You have 2 excellent offensive players very close in ability and career arc, whichever ends up a little better (Moncrief was the better passer, Marques the better rebounder -- as expected by position; Marques scored a bit more, Moncrief was more efficient). Marques had 2 playoff terrific years (77 and 81), 1 mediocre (dropped to 18 PER) and 4 weak playoffs (averaged 15 PER which is, well, average). Moncrief in his 7 preinjury years had 1 great offensive playoff year (1985 he led league in ORTG and WS/48 in playoffs), 2 average ones (includes his rookie year where his playoff numbers went up from a not impressive statistical season), and 4 bad ones (averaged 13.5) . . . a bit worse than Marques . . .

BUT Moncrief in those years had 2 great defensive series (at least! I only looked at 3 of them) shuttin down his opposing number in Boston and New Jersey to get his team to the ECF (with Marques's great offensive years never resulting in getting that far). And that's the big difference -- Moncrief is a GOAT defensive wing, Marques was average to above average -- Sid just shut people down sometimes and always led a terrific defense despite playing with multiple centers (in his 6 year prime, 5 centers averaged over 1500 minutes). That's where he makes his case for a top 50 player; very good offense (I give the edge to Marques by a little for his playoffs) but great defense (very clear and strong edge over Johnson). DEFENSE COUNTS!

[therealbig3]

Great posts on Moncrief by Elgee, and I am convinced that Marques should actually go ahead of Moncrief.

You have a great perimeter defender in Moncrief, but Marques looks like the better offensive player, and he looks like he was actually the Bucks' go-to guy. And Moncrief did have some disappearing acts in the playoffs.

I'm switching my vote:

Vote: Ray Allen

You have 2 excellent offensive players very close in ability and career arc, whichever ends up a little better (Moncrief was the better passer, Marques the better rebounder -- as expected by position; Marques scored a bit more, Moncrief was more efficient). Marques had 2 playoff terrific years (77 and 81), 1 mediocre (dropped to 18 PER) and 4 weak playoffs (averaged 15 PER which is, well, average). Moncrief in his 7 preinjury years had 1 great offensive playoff year (1985 he led league in ORTG and WS/48 in playoffs), 2 average ones (includes his rookie year where his playoff numbers went up from a not impressive statistical season), and 4 bad ones (averaged 13.5) . . . a bit worse than Marques . . .

BUT Moncrief in those years had 2 great defensive series (at least! I only looked at 3 of them) shuttin down his opposing number in Boston and New Jersey to get his team to the ECF (with Marques's great offensive years never resulting in getting that far). And that's the big difference -- Moncrief is a GOAT defensive wing, Marques was average to above average -- Sid just shut people down sometimes and always led a terrific defense despite playing with multiple centers (in his 6 year prime, 5 centers averaged over 1500 minutes). That's where he makes his case for a top 50 player; very good offense (I give the edge to Marques by a little for his playoffs) but great defense (very clear and strong edge over Johnson). DEFENSE COUNTS!

Fair enough, it's not like Marques over Moncrief has been set in stone for me, as of right now, I moved Moncrief one spot below Marques...personally, I think offense from a perimeter player is more valuable than their defense, and since Marques is the better offensive player, he gets an overall advantage...but Moncrief was a great defender, so he does have a case.

However, there's been a bunch of posts (all by ElGee) that show how Marques was actually the one who was Milwaukee's go-to guy on offense, and that Moncrief really didn't have that much of an impact. I haven't really seen a sufficient counter to either of those points. Moncrief's individual offense/defense combo can be argued over Marques's...but the stats show that Marques had a bigger impact, significantly so.

[lorak]

vote: Manu
nominate: Bobby Jones

[lukekarts]

VOTE: Moncrief
Nominate: Marques Johnson (would normally be Worthy, but might as well get Marques in now)

[colts18]

Nominate: Gasol

Right now, I don't have a clear frontrunner for this spot.

[ElGee]

My computer is down thus I can't respond in detail...had a post showcasing the drop off sid in the PS and his role on those teams versus Marques.

IMO, Marques peaked in 81 and sid peaked in 83. Isn't it then telling that in moncried's peak season Marques seems to be a bigger player in the PS? Moncrief never bad a Ps like Marques in 1981...Bc he was never on that level as an offensive player.

changing my vote to ray Allen.

[lorak]

I think it's too high for Allen and Gasol, so I'm changing my vote to Moncrief and nomination to Marques

[penbeast0]

Looks like a big day for Milwaukee fans of a certain age -- Sid and Marques win

VOTE

Sidney Moncrief – penbeast0, Fencer, ronnymac2, Snakebites, lukekarts, DavidStern

Wes Unseld – JordansBulls, Laimbeer

Manu Ginobili – drza, DavidStern

Ray Allen – Dr Mufasa, Doctor MJ, therealbig3, ElGee


NOMINATE

Bobby Jones – penbeast0

Sam Jones – Fencer

Marques Johnson – therealbig3, ElGee, Doctor MJ, lukekarts, DavidStern

Bernard King – ronnymac2, Snakebites

Penny Hardaway – JordansBulls

Pau Gasol – drza, Dr Mufasa, colts18

Dolph Schayes -- Laimbeer