RealGM Top 100 List #59

[ThunderDan9]

1) Michael Jordan
4) Magic Johnson
6) Larry Bird
12) Karl Malone
20) Charles Barkley
21) David Robinson
25) Scottie Pippen
27) Patrick Ewing
31) John Stockton
33) Clyde Drexler

What a team! And there is still 1 non-Laettner member of that memorable DREAM TEAM, who hasn't been nominated yet. 5 (4 and a half) straight seasons of 25+ ppg COMBINED with 50%+ fg% is pretty sweet.

At what point does he get consideration?

[penbeast0]

Mullin is another guy who I think proved more than Marques Johnson (even in the "multi-polar" offense known as RUN TMC); I can't believe that I'm the only one that thinks rating him over guys like King, Mullin, and possibly David Thompson . . . heck, Connie Hawkins too for the real short peak star, is too much. Maybe he could have done more but he didn't.

[ThaRegul8r]

vote: Marques Johnson
nominate: Nate Thurmond

I'll echo the nomination for Thurmond.

[therealbig3]

My count so far:

Vote:

Marques-3 (therealbig3, FJS, ElGee)

S. Jones-2 (Fencer reregistered, JordansBulls)

King-2 (Dr Mufasa, ronnymac2)

Manu-1 (drza)

Gasol-1 (penbeast0) got too cute and wrote the final line in Spanish



Nominate:

Carter-3 (Dr Mufasa, therealbig3, ronnymac2)

Thurmond-2 (ElGee, ThaRegul8r)

B. Jones-1 (penbeast0)

Schayes-1 (Fencer reregistered)

Webber-1 (drza)

Worthy-1 (FJS)

Kemp-1 (JordansBulls)

[lorak]

vote: Marques
nominate: Thurmond

[ElGee]

Nate Thurmond's In/Out

1967 I have 16 missed games: Team is +12.7 better (to +5.4 MOV)
1968 I have 31 missed games: Team is +10.5 better (to +3.4 MOV)
1969 I have 12 missed games: Team is +8.4 better (to -0.4 MOV)
1970 I have 40 missed games: Team is +5.8 better (to -1.6 MOV)

They gave up 8.8 more points per game in 67.
They gave up 11.3 more points per game in 68.
They gave up 3.1 more points per game in 69.
They gave up 8.3 more points per game in 70.

Unfortunately we don't have pace or even TS% numbers, but we can reasonably infer (IMO) that Thurmond is having an enormous defensive presence. I have him on my short list of top all-time defensive anchors. Other posters have also diligently noted his heads up success on defense against players like Wilt Chamberlain and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.

When healthy, I consider peak Thurmond one of the top players in the league. It's hard to compare him to anyone at the time, but perhaps peak Alonzo Mourning is a decent choice. Obviously longevity is the massive thing with Nate, but he's got a few relevant seasons with an excellent healthy peak in 1967.

[Doctor MJ]

ElGee & others, I'd love to see a breakdown of Thurmond vs Mutombo. Does he really have a clear edge on D? Wouldn't you rather have a guy on offense that doesn't try to score 20+ is he just isn't good enough to do it well?

[Doctor MJ]

Vote: Manu Ginobili

Manu, Marques, and Gasol are on my mind right now. Thing is though, I just really look at Ginobili as someone who has had his top level impact for the bulk of the minutes in his NBA career. I don't see that with Marques (or Gasol for that matter).

I understand that in general you'd prefer to have those minutes more smushed into particular seasons to drive the chance-at-championship higher...but without question, part of the reason Manu is played by the Spurs like he is is because it really helped them maximize their titles. So I don't really see how that argument applies here, and I think Manu probably had more elite minutes than the other guys in question.

[therealbig3]

ElGee & others, I'd love to see a breakdown of Thurmond vs Mutombo. Does he really have a clear edge on D? Wouldn't you rather have a guy on offense that doesn't try to score 20+ is he just isn't good enough to do it well?

Yep, this is my question too. I'm not sure if Thurmond should go ahead of Mutombo as of right now.

[lorak]

Changing my vote to Manu

[drza]

Changing my nomination to Nate Thurmond

Thurmond vs Mutombo to me is, at present, a toss-up. Further discussion on the two (Thurmond in general) could help me make this clearer to myself.

(Therealbig3, I haven't forgotten your Webber/Carter question but it was a bit more difficult than I expected to answer and I haven't hat the time to do it any justice).

[Dr Positivity]

The impression I've had is that Mutumbo is more the shotblocker/help d anchor and Thurmond more the man defender, though Thurmond still ranking top 6 in 74 and 75 in blks indicate he was probably up there for help d

I don't have a problem with either of them getting nominated soon, I think we're at the point where some teams could use guys like Vince and Melo more and some could use Mutumbos more. Kidd and RJ definitely could've used Mutumbo more than Vince for example. If you were a team like the Wizards or Raptors in the mid 00s who couldn't defend to save their lives, getting a Mutumbo or Thurmond in the middle would've been manna from heaven. In general though I think it'd be easier to build around Vince or Melo while Mutumbo and Thurmond would be 'the extra piece we need', but you could say the same about Gasol and Parish

And I'd still like to nominate Schayes at some point, he was a superstar only a few years removed from Pettit and not all that removed in game, and he kicked butt on the RPOY, landing at #23, with a 1st, two 3rds and 6 ballots overall - beating Cousy most of the time

[ElGee]

Mutombo's Team Defenses in the RS then the PS (Negatives are better):
*single series

94 -4.0 to -4.2 (-0.2)
95 -0.1 to 7.7 (7.8)*
97 -4.4 to -3.6 (0.8)
98 -0.7 to -4.6 (-3.9)*
99 -5.1 to -1.1 (4.0)
01 -4.1 to -0.9 (3.3)
02 -4.2 to 8.8 (13.0)*

So in 9 postseasons during his career as a starter, Mutombo's teams improved twice in the playoffs, one of those being a single series in 98 and the other by 0.2 points per 100. Of course, they don't really have to improve to be impressive if they already start out well...and in 94, 97 and 98 they put up good numbers relative to the environment. (98 again being a 4-game series versus the Hornets).

I think this paints a fairly good picture for Mutombo...but nothing overly impressive ITO of his defensive impact. So while I can get behind him being one of the better defensive presences ever, he doesn't quite make my super short list or get to Thurmond. And I think, as I've mentioned before, that's because of his lack of mobility. If this guy were half a step faster/younger he would have been on the Mt. Rushmore of defensive players, but as it is I think he just misses it.

That would then flip the question to offense, and while Doc brings up an interesting point about "trying" to do much, I find Thurmond's raw numbers to be a bit misleading. In 1967, a year I believe to be unquestionable his best, he averages 18.7 ppg (43.7% FG). But his per 75 estimations land him at 12.3 (-1.3% TS) and 14.0 rebounds. In 1969 he was 14.3 (-3.4%) and in 1971 15.4 (+0.1%). So he's really not a high-volume player ITO of per possession numbers nor the % of the team's offense he is accounting for. (On the 71 team he accounted for 18.7% of the team's points in the RS and 18.3% in the PS - mid-level numbers.) I find that to be acceptable for a post presence, and in many ways probably not much different in value from Mutombo. It's not as good as peak Mourning's offense, but I consider these areas to be smaller impact scales. Measurably, something like:

Thurmond: -5 defense +1 offense
Mutombo: -4 defense +0 offense
Mourning: -4 defense +2 offense

I'm making those numbers up, but the point is the offensive gaps aren't huge factors in overall impact for these 3 players because the range of positive and negative impact is smaller than that of their defense. And yes, although those numbers are made up, I do have a nice gap between peak Zo/Nate and Dikembe.

[Laimbeer]

Vote: Sam Jones
Nominate: Nate Thurmond

[ThaRegul8r]

Other posters have also diligently noted his heads up success on defense against players like Wilt Chamberlain and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar.

*raises hand*

[Doctor MJ]

Mutombo's Team Defenses in the RS then the PS (Negatives are better):
*single series

94 -4.0 to -4.2 (-0.2)
95 -0.1 to 7.7 (7.8)*
97 -4.4 to -3.6 (0.8)
98 -0.7 to -4.6 (-3.9)*
99 -5.1 to -1.1 (4.0)
01 -4.1 to -0.9 (3.3)
02 -4.2 to 8.8 (13.0)*

Hmm, was kinda hoping for an apples-to-apples comparison here instead of an analysis I didn't see you do with Thurmond. I realize though that you're busy and you didn't have to do anything, so appreciate what you gave.

I'm still kind of in the middle on this, but Thurmond vs Mutombo is a real debate for me, and Thurmond's a real contender for the nom here so I'm switching:

Nom: Nate

Truly, Thurmond might have been the best man defender of bigs in history, and was a solid help defender.

[penbeast0]

A three way tie in the vote, I will switch to Sam Jones; Nate the Great takes the nomination

Vote:

Marques-3 (therealbig3, FJS, ElGee)

S. Jones-3 (Fencer reregistered, JordansBulls, Sam Jones)

King-2 (Dr Mufasa, ronnymac2)

Manu-3 (drza, DoctorMJ, DavidStern)

Gasol-1 (penbeast0) got too cute and wrote the final line in Spanish



Nominate:

Carter-3 (Dr Mufasa, therealbig3, ronnymac2)

Thurmond-6 (ElGee, ThaRegul8r, DavidStern, Doctor MJ, drza, Laimbeer)

B. Jones-1 (penbeast0)

Schayes-1 (Fencer reregistered)

Worthy-1 (FJS)

Kemp-1 (JordansBulls)

[Doctor MJ]

Wow! So we just had the 3rd most recent nominee win the vote with essentially no persuasive argument given to change people's minds? Ok, seems clear then that there's going to be a high degree of randomness the rest of the way.

[penbeast0]

ElGee, DrMufasa, and therealbig3 are posting clear arguments . . . just not always on the same people that get chosen; lukekarts, drza, you, and I are posting a bit less though neither of us is the silent type

Posters in this thread who provided votes but no argument at all include Fencer reregistered (who left a list), FJS, JordansBulls, ThaRegul8r, DavidStern and Laimbeer – most of whom have posted coherent arguments on the wing scorer choices during the nomination and voting process at least since Sam Jones started getting appreciable consideration. It would be nice to have them go back to talking and I've asked FJS to clarify his Marques vote in the next thread but the nature of the project does lead to repetition as the same names are up for several threads and people just get tired of the same arguments.

[ThaRegul8r]

Posters in this thread who provided votes but no argument at all include Fencer reregistered (who left a list), FJS, JordansBulls, ThaRegul8r, DavidStern and Laimbeer

I've gone in-depth about Thurmond before, all of which I said still being relevant now. I didn't feel like repeating myself, since it was likely going to be "TL;DR"ed anyway.