RealGM Top 100 List #62

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #62 

Post#21 » by lukekarts » Thu Nov 3, 2011 7:21 pm

penbeast0 wrote:Yes, Euro stuff is irrelevant. I sort of fell into Gasol because no one else was jumping out. Basic thinking is that his stats were good but not great however his value seems higher than his stats. Why? Because the Lakers per-Gasol were not very good despite Kobe, Odom, Fisher et al then suddenly became a multiple year champion (which is a very powerful team . . . once can be a fluke, two in a row is not). Kobe was the same, he wasn't injured before, Odom is inconsistent and always has been, Fisher is declining, and the SF position has never been impressive (I'm not an Artest fan) . . . so, unless the often injured and immature Andrew Bynum is carrying the team with Kobe, the improvement should be at least significantly attributed to Gasol's impact and when I watched the playoffs, he was very impressive -- not Russell/Kareem, but Kevin McHale type impressive.

But not really sold on him so listening to your arguments with care -- before this project, I had him rated lower, people's arguments here moved him up on my list.


The European accolades may be irrelevant in one context but they do serve to demonstrate that Pau is clearly a high impact player in more than one system and not a product of Kobe/LA as DavidStern had alluded.

You make a very good case for Pau anyway with he fact he transformed the Lakers into a 2x Champion.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #62 

Post#22 » by lukekarts » Thu Nov 3, 2011 7:23 pm

VOTE: Pau Gasol
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #62 

Post#23 » by lorak » Thu Nov 3, 2011 7:40 pm

lukekarts wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:Yes, Euro stuff is irrelevant. I sort of fell into Gasol because no one else was jumping out. Basic thinking is that his stats were good but not great however his value seems higher than his stats. Why? Because the Lakers per-Gasol were not very good despite Kobe, Odom, Fisher et al then suddenly became a multiple year champion (which is a very powerful team . . . once can be a fluke, two in a row is not). Kobe was the same, he wasn't injured before, Odom is inconsistent and always has been, Fisher is declining, and the SF position has never been impressive (I'm not an Artest fan) . . . so, unless the often injured and immature Andrew Bynum is carrying the team with Kobe, the improvement should be at least significantly attributed to Gasol's impact and when I watched the playoffs, he was very impressive -- not Russell/Kareem, but Kevin McHale type impressive.

But not really sold on him so listening to your arguments with care -- before this project, I had him rated lower, people's arguments here moved him up on my list.


The European accolades may be irrelevant in one context but they do serve to demonstrate that Pau is clearly a high impact player in more than one system and not a product of Kobe/LA as DavidStern had alluded.


So explain why during 6 and half seasons in Memphis he was not so good?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #62 

Post#24 » by lorak » Thu Nov 3, 2011 7:42 pm

Dr Mufasa wrote:The first half of 08's improvement was all on Bynum's breakout and all-star C caliber play, IIRC as soon as he got injured the Lakers looked like on the verge of a collapse back to mediocrity before the Gasol trade.


Difficult schedule after Bynum's injury. Besides, my point remains - before Gasol trade Lakers that season were very good team. (but of course Bynum was one of main reasons why they were so good)

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #62 

Post#25 » by drza » Thu Nov 3, 2011 7:47 pm

DavidStern wrote:Well, I think Gasol was Finals MVP in 2009, so I kind of agree with you about him in playoffs during LA years (BTW, I also think Rodman should won in 1996 ;)). But what people often forgot, and what Lakers fans could better explain than me, is that Lakers during 2007/08 season were already very good team before Gasol trade:

2006/07 .512 W-L%, 0.0 efficiency differential
2007/08 before Gasol .636 (!) W-L%, +5.3 efficiency differential

So they improved drastically without Gasol. Of course when he joined team they improved even more, but my point is why he was so bad during 6 and half seasons in Memhis and what happened that in LA he improved so much he seems now to be top 100 player of all time, when before LA he didn't get single MVP vote, All NBA selection or general recognition as one of the best PF/C in the game? (data we have also suggest he was not so good player in Memhis: with/without or RAPM)


My findings would be a lot more similar to Doc MJ's in this instance. In the scheme of "impact stats", I think that a 4- 6 year APM study is about the gold standard, with 1-year RAPM studies further down the list, with on-court/off-court +/- a bit further down and things like the with/without data near the bottom. I rely on the lesser stats if the better aren't available, or if there are specific reasons why the better ones might not be accurate (i.e. measuring the wrong place in a career, some other type of context), and I generally try to look at the largest body of data as I can...but in a case like Gasol's, where there's no real reason that I can see to disqualify the multi-year studies AND they're available, I'd tend to believe those studies where they disagree with some of the lesser measures.

Ilardi's 2004 - 2009 study had Gasol at 20th among NBA players over that period
Englemann's 2007 - 2011 study has Gasol at 17th among NBA players over that period

That's two different, multi-year studies with only a brief period of overlap, performed by two different authors, that come to essentially the same conclusion. I therefore don't really see Gasol as a case where he went to LA and suddenly was entirely more impactful. Instead, I see him as a case where, as the best player on a poor team his impact was able to help a lesser team win 50 games. Then, when he came to a really good team, he was quite clearly the difference between a 2nd round type team and a multiple champion. That's impact in both situations, and fits very well with the story that the multi-year APM studies tell. As well as the stories that the advanced stats would tell us. Plus, Gasol was also reaching his physical peak when he got to LA as well. All in all, I see nothing unusual about his rise or questionable about his impact.

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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #62 

Post#26 » by lorak » Thu Nov 3, 2011 8:00 pm

drza wrote:
Ilardi's 2004 - 2009 study had Gasol at 20th among NBA players over that period
Englemann's 2007 - 2011 study has Gasol at 17th among NBA players over that period


In both these studies Odom is better than Gasol. Why he isn't even nominated yet?

And as much as I respect you and Doc I don't like how much you ignore single seasons RAPM and with/without in this case (and I understand - and agree! - that the most important is multi year, then single season APM, and then with/without). BTW, is there any other player who's doing so well in these multi year studies, but is as bad as Mamhis Gasol in single season studies? Also, isn't it possible that Lakers Gasol was good enough that he "covered" his bad results in Memhis so his multi year RAPM is very good? (and isn't it the case that most recent years have the most weight? So Lakers seasons - Gasol's better years - are much more important in these studies than his bad years in Memhis?)
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #62 

Post#27 » by ElGee » Thu Nov 3, 2011 8:27 pm

The Lakers were ridiculously good with Gasol. Something like 22-5 to close and no 3-game losing streak for a few years. They played like .800 ball or something in his first two seasons. That's off the top of my head, but the point is if anything should be used against Pau it's his overall play in Memphis. I think he clearly either (a) improved as he got older or (b) was tailor-made for the triangle.

Personally, I think it's a combination of both.

I've been looking into James Worthy, someone who has always been an interesting case for obvious reasons. (Winning AND clutch bias in a big market.) Worthy's In/Out Runs:


Worthy 1986 (7g) 9.6 to 8.6
Worthy 1988 (7g) 3.4 to 6.1
Worthy 1992 (28g) -1.1 to -1.5
[Worthy 86-88 (14g) 6.5 to 7.4]

They didn't have Cap in two of those games in 1986, and it's small sample, but it at least suggests something a little extra to me about Worthy. Namely, that not only was he solidly contributing with his stats, but that his role had some value alongside Magic. Worthy was excellent on the break and also moved very well without the ball as he was a smart player. Then there's this...

In 1986 Worthy played 10 games without Magic:
w/out Magic: 20.0 ppg 5.7 rpg 4.2 apg 1.2 st 1.7 blk 2.7 TOV 60.5% TS
with Magic: 20.0 ppg 5.1 rpg 2.5 apg 1.1 st 0.9 blk 1.9 TOV 61.4% TS

In 1988 Worthy again played 10 games without Magic:
w/out Magic: 21.3 ppg 4.7 rpg 4.8 apg 1.3 st 0.6 blk 2.2 TOV 59.2% TS
with Magic: 19.5 ppg 5.0 rpg 3.7 apg 0.9 st 0.8 blk 2.1 TOV 56.7% TS

In 1989 5 games without Magic:
w/out Magic: 19.6 ppg 5.2 rpg 4.2 apg 2.4 st 0.8 blk 3.0 TOV 61.1% TS
with Magic: 20.5 ppg 6.1 rpg 3.5 apg 1.3 st 0.7 blk 2.2 TOV 58.0% TS

So Worthy actually looks fantastic without Magic around. Maybe not the raw line of a Grade A superstar, but considering these are all playoff-type teams sans Johnson, it's actually a fairly pretty line. And one that, most importantly, suggests Worthy was plenty capable without Johnson and wasn't merely a strong beneficiary of his presence. All told, from 1986-1989, Worthy played 25 games without Magic:

1986-1989 James Worthy
w/out Magic: 20.4 ppg 5.2 rpg 4.4 apg 1.5 st 1.1 blk 2.6 TOV 60.1% TS
with Magic: 20.0 ppg 5.4 rpg 3.2 apg 1.1 st 0.8 blk 2.1 TOV 58.6% TS

So he's scoring MORE, at a HIGHER efficiency, while presumably taking on a larger role in activity/creation -- noticeably more assists and turnovers -- and this clearly jibes with Worthy's skillset and (perhaps deserved) reputation.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #62 

Post#28 » by Dr Positivity » Thu Nov 3, 2011 8:37 pm

The numbers for Gasol's 05 injury timeout rely on a pretty small sample size. Just looking at this: http://www.basketball-reference.com/tea ... games.html It seems like their schedule is really light between Jan. 22 and March 20th when Gasol misses. Also, the team started 5-11 and went through a coaching change and then after hiring Fratello went 18-8 before Gasol's injury so it's reasonable to say they were better than their 23-19 record up to that point and thus had a bigger dropoff in the next 2 months

As a whole I'm also wary of injury +/- because teams in general can plug the holes in a boat for a short period of time and play their hearts out to stay in the playoff race, often against opponents who are out of the playoff race or have a comfortable position and don't need to exert themselves as much. I think if teams know they're a good team and a playoff team it makes a difference in how they approach and plan for games. As an example there's a reason a team like the 2011 Cavaliers dropped as much defensively as much as offensively, it's IMO partly because they stopped giving a crap about defense compared to inflating their statistical resumes when they realized the games were meaningless (in that case though to be fair, the Cavaliers have always been atrocious when Lebron is injured). I'm pretty confident saying it'd be a miracle if a Miller, White Chocolate, Battier, Posey, Swift, etc. led team made the playoffs if they were on their own all year.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #62 

Post#29 » by lukekarts » Thu Nov 3, 2011 8:59 pm

DavidStern wrote:So explain why during 6 and half seasons in Memphis he was not so good?


He was?

If you factor in the fact that he never played with so much as an All Star, and over the years he was there, Jason Williams, Shane Battier, Mike Miller, James Posey, Bonzi Wells and Chucky Atkins were his teams second leading scorers (all good role player guys, but 5th options on other teams), it's remarkable he had one 50 win season and two high 40 win seasons. With the exception of Miller's 18ppg season, none of those guys even cracked 14ppg for Memphis.

How many teams today are making the playoffs with their second option scoring less than 14ppg?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #62 

Post#30 » by lorak » Thu Nov 3, 2011 10:06 pm

lukekarts wrote:
DavidStern wrote:So explain why during 6 and half seasons in Memphis he was not so good?


He was?

If you factor in the fact that he never played with so much as an All Star, and over the years he was there, Jason Williams, Shane Battier, Mike Miller, James Posey, Bonzi Wells and Chucky Atkins were his teams second leading scorers (all good role player guys, but 5th options on other teams), it's remarkable he had one 50 win season and two high 40 win seasons. With the exception of Miller's 18ppg season, none of those guys even cracked 14ppg for Memphis.

How many teams today are making the playoffs with their second option scoring less than 14ppg?


I'm not criticizing Gasol for Memhis overall record. What I'm talking about is his value for this team. RAPM or with/without show that during 6 and a half seasons in Memhis he was much worse than during 3 and a half seasons in LA. I would have no problem with Pau in top 65 all time if he played whole, or at least most of, career on the level he is playing since he joined the Lakers. But during about 60% of his career he played on a level far from all time top 100. Before '08 he wasn't even top20 player in any season, 3 and half years passed and he made leap to top65 all time.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #62 

Post#31 » by lukekarts » Thu Nov 3, 2011 10:27 pm

DavidStern wrote:
lukekarts wrote:
DavidStern wrote:So explain why during 6 and half seasons in Memphis he was not so good?


He was?

If you factor in the fact that he never played with so much as an All Star, and over the years he was there, Jason Williams, Shane Battier, Mike Miller, James Posey, Bonzi Wells and Chucky Atkins were his teams second leading scorers (all good role player guys, but 5th options on other teams), it's remarkable he had one 50 win season and two high 40 win seasons. With the exception of Miller's 18ppg season, none of those guys even cracked 14ppg for Memphis.

How many teams today are making the playoffs with their second option scoring less than 14ppg?


I'm not criticizing Gasol for Memhis overall record. What I'm talking about is his value for this team. RAPM or with/without show that during 6 and a half seasons in Memhis he was much worse than during 3 and a half seasons in LA. I would have no problem with Pau in top 65 all time if he played whole, or at least most of, career on the level he is playing since he joined the Lakers. But during about 60% of his career he played on a level far from all time top 100. Before '08 he wasn't even top20 player in any season, 3 and half years passed and he made leap to top65 all time.


He was playing at the same high level. All that suggests is RAPM is a completely flawed statistic and you really shouldn't be using it as your key method of evaluating Pau.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #62 

Post#32 » by lorak » Thu Nov 3, 2011 10:33 pm

lukekarts wrote:
DavidStern wrote:


I'm not criticizing Gasol for Memhis overall record. What I'm talking about is his value for this team. RAPM or with/without show that during 6 and a half seasons in Memhis he was much worse than during 3 and a half seasons in LA. I would have no problem with Pau in top 65 all time if he played whole, or at least most of, career on the level he is playing since he joined the Lakers. But during about 60% of his career he played on a level far from all time top 100. Before '08 he wasn't even top20 player in any season, 3 and half years passed and he made leap to top65 all time.


He was playing at the same high level. All that suggests is RAPM is a completely flawed statistic and you really shouldn't be using it as your key method of evaluating Pau.


Look, it's not only RAPM. It's all data we have (even box score) and general recognition - no MVP votes, no All NBA selections, no "top PF in the game" or "all time top65 player" discussions and so on. All that changed when he joined Lakers.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #62 

Post#33 » by lukekarts » Thu Nov 3, 2011 11:03 pm

DavidStern wrote:
lukekarts wrote:
DavidStern wrote:


I'm not criticizing Gasol for Memhis overall record. What I'm talking about is his value for this team. RAPM or with/without show that during 6 and a half seasons in Memhis he was much worse than during 3 and a half seasons in LA. I would have no problem with Pau in top 65 all time if he played whole, or at least most of, career on the level he is playing since he joined the Lakers. But during about 60% of his career he played on a level far from all time top 100. Before '08 he wasn't even top20 player in any season, 3 and half years passed and he made leap to top65 all time.


He was playing at the same high level. All that suggests is RAPM is a completely flawed statistic and you really shouldn't be using it as your key method of evaluating Pau.


Look, it's not only RAPM. It's all data we have (even box score) and general recognition - no MVP votes, no All NBA selections, no "top PF in the game" or "all time top65 player" discussions and so on. All that changed when he joined Lakers.


Box score impact was more or less the same, in fact his highest scoring and shot blocking years were in Memphis.

I think the recognition argument is slightly unfair, and a number of factors contributed; playing on a weak small market team, dominance at the time of three other PF's in the same Conference (Duncan, KG, Dirk). Internationally he has always been regarded as a great player, it just took a while for the NBA to notice.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #62 

Post#34 » by lorak » Thu Nov 3, 2011 11:41 pm

lukekarts wrote:
DavidStern wrote:
Look, it's not only RAPM. It's all data we have (even box score) and general recognition - no MVP votes, no All NBA selections, no "top PF in the game" or "all time top65 player" discussions and so on. All that changed when he joined Lakers.


Box score impact was more or less the same, in fact his highest scoring and shot blocking years were in Memphis.


ppg and bpg :D

Memhis 0.153 WS/48 (0.160 without rookie season)
Lakers 0.227 WS/48


I think the recognition argument is slightly unfair, and a number of factors contributed; playing on a weak small market team, dominance at the time of three other PF's in the same Conference (Duncan, KG, Dirk).


Ok, but recognition is only one of several reasons and they all tell the same story, so...

Internationally he has always been regarded as a great player, it just took a while for the NBA to notice.


Again - Euro is irrelevant here, but you know he won first European Player of the Year award in... 2008?!
Or do you know that during 2006 World Championships Spain played WITHOUT Pau and easily won gold medal game against Greece (undefeated until then, won with USA in semi finals)?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #62 

Post#35 » by jamio » Thu Nov 3, 2011 11:48 pm

lol @ GaSoft being in the top 65. lol @ that dude who said he deserved Finals MVP in 09 when Kobe's numbers crushed his.

GaSoft before Godbe:
1 All-Star in 8 seasons
0 MVP votes
0 All-NBA Teams
Swept in the PS three straight years
Not even regarded as a top 15 player/Top 5 PF.

Epic Fail.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #62 

Post#36 » by jamio » Thu Nov 3, 2011 11:49 pm

lol @ Doc MJ's double-standards.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #62 

Post#37 » by ElGee » Fri Nov 4, 2011 12:12 am

This is the strongest trolling effort I've ever encountered online. It's to the point where I kind of just want to give the kid a hug (someone should) or introduce him to a lady.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #62 

Post#38 » by Dr Positivity » Fri Nov 4, 2011 12:18 am

Why is it always Kobe?
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #62 

Post#39 » by grande » Fri Nov 4, 2011 12:22 am

ElGee wrote:This is the strongest trolling effort I've ever encountered online. It's to the point where I kind of just want to give the kid a hug (someone should) or introduce him to a lady.

lol @ this dumass phagett.
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Re: RealGM Top 100 List #62 

Post#40 » by tsherkin » Fri Nov 4, 2011 12:30 am

Dr Mufasa wrote:Why is it always Kobe?


I don't know. I secretly suspect Kobe bankrolls a training facility through some Tor-hidden webspace where he trains mega-trolls to spread his Word all over the internet...

ElGee wrote:This is the strongest trolling effort I've ever encountered online. It's to the point where I kind of just want to give the kid a hug (someone should) or introduce him to a lady.


It's totally lulz-worthy.

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