Real GM Top 100 List #64

[ElGee]

vote: Penny Hardaway
nominate: David Thompson

Here's the scoop on Penny. He has a 3-year prime followed by 2 solid All-Star level years post-prime. My guess is many people have completely forgotten about 99 and 2000 (if they were around for the at all) and have probably overlooked what he did from 95-97. Point being, that's a good chunk of career value at this point in the process.

Ah, but what about that prime? Just how good was Hardaway? I have him on the plain of guys like peak Drexler, Pippen and Hill. I'd actually take Penny over Hill. (Lil Penny > Sprite too.) In 1995 Penny he jumps onto the scene as a fairly big-time player. His size creates all kinds of matchup issues and he creates a lot of offense as a result of it. He can score, and like great offensive players using that scoring to pressure defenses. Although it's his first swing at the PS and I don't think he was quite ready for elite company. Although this is a subtle point - he had plenty good PS moments and NBA FInals games.

In 96 he finishes 3rd in MVP voting. It's hard not to see him on the short list of best players in the league. He even torched Pippen in G1 of the ECF for 38 (79% TS) and was incredibly active in many of those games, creating opportunities left and right. I think he had great BB IQ which led to excellent passing and shot selection...something reflected in his stats with good TS% and Ast/TOV numbers. (His 96 ORtg is 122 and 121 in the PS...something very rare for 20-point scorers to achieve: http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... rder_by=ws)

IN 96, the Magic were +2.7 in 28 games without Shaq. The following year, with O'Neal gone to FA, they were +2.5 with Penny in the lineup...and -7.8 without him! What was the roster continuity, you ask?

Scott 3000 MP --> 2200 MP
Anderson 2700 --> 2200
Grant 2300 --> 2500
Shaw 1700 --> 1900
Koncak 1300 --> Strong 2000
Bowie 1100 --> Armstrong 1000
Wolf 1100 --> Wilkins 2200

Shaq leaves and Rony Seikaly plays 2600 minutes (68 starts) at center, playing well at 17-10. Still, it's arguably a little more impressive what Hardaway was able to do in 97...and from tape it looks like his skillset/leadership is highly refined then.

Look, we know this is a guy who could thrive and play very well with a great post player and lead a very good offense in that setting. THe Magic offensive was FIRST in 1995 and THIRD in 1996. In 97, Penny plays more 2-guard and with the roster turnover (and loss of O'Neal) they regress...but the final number is exaggerated because of his 23 missed games. In the postseason series, Hardaway averaged 31-6-3 (58% TS) and almost no turnovers. This is against the top-ranked defense in the league in the Miami Heat, and the Magic lose a close series in 5 games, posting an ORtg of 105 in G3 (W) and 120 in G4 (W). In those 2 games, Hardaway averaged 41.5 points, 7.5 reb, 3 ast and 3 steals. He had 2 turnovers and shot 64.4% TS. Indeed, the team offense swayed with him, as he had an off G1 and Orlando posted a 76 ORtg. He was better in G2 although it was a blowout by half (101 ORtg). Penny came to play in G5 but that team was completely overmatched going against those Heat.

All in all, playing with a past-prime Dennis Scott, traumatized Nick Anderson and a few other decent role players and from 96-97, basically playing with them at ~3 SRS level is seriously impressive from a unipolar standpoint. Mix in that we also saw him play on a championship-level team in 95 and 96 and I think it's a pretty monster peak from Anfernee. I'd go as far to say as I don't even rate it too far off from peak Bernard King...someone just voted in who for me, doesn't give me the same longevity or versatility.

[Dr Positivity]

Some context on the 97 +/- stats, Nick Anderson (averaging 17ppg until his injury) also missed December and Dennis Scott missed most of November, so that could effect the stats. They went 5-3 in November after Penny's injury, but went 2-13 without Penny and Anderson between Dec. 2nd and Jan. 9th. Schedule also seems pretty tough starting in mid Dec. with LA Lakers, 2x Jazz, Pistons, Heat, Knicks, Bulls in there and some against reasonable teams like Indy and Clev in there. They also won 41 Gs in 98 and were a 54 W pace 1st seed with a 16/6/5 .49 TS% Penny in 99 so I'd be inclined to believe the rest of the Magic could play a lot more than that -8 stat suggests

[ronnymac2]

vote: Rodman
nominate: Bobby Jones

Why Bobby Jones?

Why not?
We are at the point of the list, where great role players like Rodman or Gasol are voted in, so so good overall player (and one of the best wing defenders of all time) like Jones probably also should be somewhere around #70.

All right, sounds fair. What are your thoughts on Dave Debusschere and Horace Grant then?

[ronnymac2]

Good posts on Connie Hawkins and Penny Hardaway.

Hawkins was mega-talented. I really like his 1970 NBA season, as he had a very good playoffs against the Lakers.

What about Spencer Haywood?

[ElGee]

Some context on the 97 +/- stats, Nick Anderson (averaging 17ppg until his injury) also missed December and Dennis Scott missed most of November, so that could effect the stats. They went 5-3 in November after Penny's injury, but went 2-13 without Penny and Anderson between Dec. 2nd and Jan. 9th. Schedule also seems pretty tough starting in mid Dec. with LA Lakers, 2x Jazz, Pistons, Heat, Knicks, Bulls in there and some against reasonable teams like Indy and Clev in there. They also won 41 Gs in 98 and were a 54 W pace 1st seed with a 16/6/5 .49 TS% Penny in 99 so I'd be inclined to believe the rest of the Magic could play a lot more than that -8 stat suggests

Some context to your context:

(1) Every player for the most part has an asterik in their in/out numbers. Just like they have them with their raw on/off numbers.

(2) In the 8 game sample in November, the Magic MOV was -0.6 (with a 0.1 schedule and 5 of the 8 games at home). Even if we assumed that were a perfect indication of their Non-Pennyness, at 3 points for HCA that's a -1.5 SRS team, or in wins if you prefer, of a 37-win team on average.

(3) 99 and 00 Penny is good! I'm so tired of people citing raw stats for 1999. Team's are playing in the 80s, efficiency is down and the Magic ended up at 89 ppg. Granted, I too have blocked out that year, but for the purpose of this project (and the board) it happened and some people played well. Anfernee Hardaway was one of them, relatively speaking.

I think your point about the schedule is more telling...bad teams will get blown out by good ones – variance is smaller with a truly large differential and it's reflected in those games quite often, What happened when the weakened Magic played good teams in that stretch?

Utah -33
Utah -5
Miami -20
Chicago -21

Those games count...but simply removing the juggernauts from that sample shifts them to -5.2 w/out Penny...the aforementioned November stretch plus 11 subsequent games at -8.5. Adjusted for schedule (1.2 SRS average) and an extra road game overall renders a -6.4 SRS team over that stretch. Obviously understandable given the loss of their two primary scorers (NB what happens to teams when they lose their scorers!)

(4) The 98 team brought in Chuck Daly, who did a wonderful job, and had roster turnover, notably Bo Outlaw playing awesome (that was a solid defensive team and below average offensive team).

But my overall point was not that Penny was doing 03 T-Mac work with an absolutely terrible offensive team otherwise, but that taking a team that is -2 or -3 (in theory) and bringing them to +3 (in theory) is really really darn good.

[therealbig3]

Nominate: Billy Cunningham

[lorak]

All right, sounds fair. What are your thoughts on Dave Debusschere and Horace Grant then?

DeBusschere definitely should be in soon. When I was watching G7 of 1970 finals and counting Frazier's non existent assists ;] DeBuss was GREAT defensively and overall almost as good in that game as Frazier.

Horace Grant? I don't know, rather don't see him in top 100, but at this point of the project I'm very easily to be convinced to change my mind.

vote: Penny

[therealbig3]

My count:

Vote:

Rodman-3 (penbeast0, drza, lukekarts)

Carter-3 (Dr Mufasa, ronnymac2, therealbig3)

Penny-3 (JordansBulls, ElGee, DavidStern)

Hill-1 (Snakebites)



Nominate:

Cunningham-4 (ronnymac2, Doctor MJ, Dr Mufasa, therealbig3)

Worthy-3 (Fencer reregistered, lukekarts, FJS)

B. Jones-2 (penbeast0, DavidStern)

Webber-1 (drza)

Kemp-1 (JordansBulls)

Thompson-1 (ElGee)

[lorak]

My count:

Vote:

Rodman-3 (penbeast0, drza, lukekarts)

Carter-3 (Dr Mufasa, ronnymac2, therealbig3)

Penny-3 (JordansBulls, ElGee, DavidStern)

Hill-1 (Snakebites)

Oh, I'm sorry, I forgot about Rodman! He's my vote, I vote for Rodman

[therealbig3]

Why Rodman over Penny or Carter? Or even more relevant, what's his case over Mutombo or Thurmond, guys who were legitimate and elite defensive anchors? Rodman was more of a great man defender, not someone who was going to anchor a defense.

[penbeast0]

I know people are going to get upset at this, but it's a ring thing. He has the GOAT rebounding and the defensive rep but with his stupid antics that wouldn't get him in alone; but his teams tend to perform above expectations and win rings both in Detroit and in Chicago. Thurmond's teams tended to underperform their expectations; Mutombo's teams went both ways. The question is who contributes most to winning and that seems to be Dennis the Menace.

[MarJJMar]

How can Penny have more votes than Hill? His career was shorter and his peak was worse, it's mindboggling.

[ronnymac2]

All right, sounds fair. What are your thoughts on Dave Debusschere and Horace Grant then?

DeBusschere definitely should be in soon. When I was watching G7 of 1970 finals and counting Frazier's non existent assists ;] DeBuss was GREAT defensively and overall almost as good in that game as Frazier.

Horace Grant? I don't know, rather don't see him in top 100, but at this point of the project I'm very easily to be convinced to change my mind.

vote: Penny

Debusschere was indeed great.

I'll probably make an argument for Horace at some point. I just wanted to get his name on everybody's radar again.

[ThunderDan9]

What about Mullin or Richmond?
For the latter, is he "disqualified" for playing in a hopeless team for the large part of his prime? Do we have enough data how valuable he was for the Kings? His raw stats are pretty good, he had longevity (10 consecutive 20+ pgg seasons), he had the accolades (All-NBA teams, a regular All-Star, a member of the "Dream Team 3" in Atlanta etc.), and I have the impression remembering his game that he was constantly one of the very very best SHOOTING guards of the nineties.

Mullin and Richmond are the only non-Laettner members of the 92 or 96 "Dream Teams" who haven't been nominated yet. OK, I know this isn't the most powerful argument, but still: were they so much inferior to their contemporary team members that they are not even worth a mention at this point of the project (basically around top 75-80)? It wasn't the case, that they had one outstanding year in 92 or 96 respectively (which would justify their election to the absolute elite at that time), they were very good for many seasons.

[therealbig3]

Yes, but Rodman won rings playing next to the GOAT (arguably) and the GOAT 2nd option (arguably). There were also tons of great role players besides Rodman on those teams. With the Pistons, he won playing on an extremely balanced and deep team, and he was far from the only great big that they had.

When Rodman won, he had the perfect situation around him. Those teams needed a physical defender who could rebound, which is why Rodman fit so well. I would take him for those teams over a guy like Dirk, but I would never build a team around Rodman over Dirk.

I think I can build a better team with Penny and Carter as my best player than with Rodman as my best player. He's a great role player, who played an important role, which is why he fit so well on teams and had a big impact, but the situation has to be perfect for Rodman.