RealGM Top 100 List #71

[lorak]

vote: David Thompson
nominate: Chris Webber

I'll hold off on re-posting arguments for both (they are in previous threads) as to not derail the conversation from Adrian Dantley and why he was nominated. I know Penbeast wasn't the only person who voted for him...

I also voted for Dantley!
Why, you ask? Well, even by your simple adjustment he had some seasons with big positive impact (1979 and 1985), but I also know that from '80 to '82 Utah without him was 2-15, so 11.8% and with him they won 32.7% of games (sure, still were very weak, but no doubt he had positive impact). He also was part (big part - leading scorer) of championship caliber team (1988 Pistons), so he definitely could play team ball (BTW, 1976 Olympics also says something important). Overall I think he was better player than many of you give him credit, for example he was willing passer and I believe he was year after year among league leaders in hockey assists.

[Doctor MJ]

We really need discussion but I just don't have a lot to say on Mutumbo vs Cunningham. Both are probably ideally 2nd or 3rd best on a contender guys - But personally I think building from the C position out is the smarter bet here, gun to my head

I really think we need to be careful about "ties go to the center" thinking. Cunningham finished twice in the top 5 of NBA MVP before switching leagues, immediately being a rainmaker and winning the MVP (which prime Rick Barry had just failed to do).

Mutombo, simply put, was never an MVP candidate.

One might choose Mutombo as a better #2 piece, but then one has to acknowledge Cunningham's superiority as a #1, and the fact that Cunningham blended right in with Wilt as part of a GOAT candidate level team.

As for the nomination. Bringing it back to the Melo thing. The results for him are simply there. His lineups have usually consisted of a good but not tier 1 PG (Miller, slightly past prime Iverson, Billups), big men who defend and rebound (Kmart, Nene Camby) and shooters (JR, Kleiza, Afflalo, etc.). That's decently complimentary but pretty similar to Nique and Durant's best teams in both style and caliber. Probably less talented than Durant's. And the Nuggets were as good as any of their teams.

I'm sorry I keep raining on your parade here, but when saying "less supporting talent, as good success" with Melo we just have to always remember:

-Amazing lack of track record with this for Melo in +/- stats.
-Surprising (maybe) continued success after Melo got traded off his team.
-Surprising (maybe) lack of improvement on Melo's new team.

I just see Melo as a guy whose story, presuming he has a good one, still needs to be finalized before we make any assumptions about his being an X level star on a team with Y success.

[ElGee]

vote: David Thompson
nominate: Chris Webber

I'll hold off on re-posting arguments for both (they are in previous threads) as to not derail the conversation from Adrian Dantley and why he was nominated. I know Penbeast wasn't the only person who voted for him...

I also voted for Dantley!
Why, you ask? Well, even by your simple adjustment he had some seasons with big positive impact (1979 and 1985), but I also know that from '80 to '82 Utah without him was 2-15, so 11.8% and with him they won 32.7% of games (sure, still were very weak, but no doubt he had positive impact). He also was part (big part - leading scorer) of championship caliber team (1988 Pistons), so he definitely could play team ball (BTW, 1976 Olympics also says something important). Overall I think he was better player than many of you give him credit, for example he was willing passer and I believe he was year after year among league leaders in hockey assists.

Dantley 1985 (26g) 4.3 to 1.3
Dantley 1980 (12g) -0.6 to -6.1
Dantley 1988 (13g) -2.0 to 4.9
Dantley 1983 (59g) -2.1 to -6.0
Dantley 1979 (20g) 4 to 4.1
Dantley Det 1989 (40g) -3.6 to 4.1

(1) Dantley didn't miss time in 1982.
(2) You keep mentioning the record in 1980 but that's just called luck/variance. The team was worse by MOV without him in the games I can find. So no, there is plenty of doubt he had positive impact.
(3) The Pistons in 1988 were a +2.9 team with him. How on earth can you call that a championship level team?
(4) What do the 1976 Olympics say?

[lorak]

[
Dantley 1983 (59g) -2.1 to -6.0

He missed one more game that year, so MOV would be little different (net the same): -5.7.
(BTW, Dantley improved Jazz offense that year).

(1) Dantley didn't miss time in 1982.

He did - one game, and two in 1981.

(2) You keep mentioning the record in 1980 but that's just called luck/variance. The team was worse by MOV without him in the games I can find. So no, there is plenty of doubt he had positive impact.

Your MOV is only ppg scored vs ppg allowed, not ortg vs drtg, so we don't know for sure.
BTW, in 1983 Jazz also had better winning % with Dantley than without him.

(3) The Pistons in 1988 were a +2.9 team with him. How on earth can you call that a championship level team?

They advanced to the finals from very strong conference and lost after 7 games (some very controversial, including ending of G7). That's championship level team.

Besides 1988 Pistons efficiency differential with Dantley was +4.9. That's better than 2011 Mavs, and not much worse than 2010 Lakers.

(4) What do the 1976 Olympics say?

The same what 1988 pistons - it's possible to built winning/championship level team with AD as one of the most important players.

[ElGee]

Wow, first your talking about missing 1 game in a season as an indication of something. Then you say "MOV is not ortg vs drtg" -- why does it matter? ORtg and DRtg are a composite of MOV + pace. It really makes me not understanding where you're coming from. And again, you mention winning%, as if you don't understand why MOV is better than winning%.

2.9 MOV is NOT a championship level team. (It's about the 350th-best MOV in NBA history.) And what I meant was, if you're argument foro Adrian Dantley being voted in now is that he was on the 1976 Olympic team, I'd say your argument is frail at best.

[lorak]

Wow, first your talking about missing 1 game in a season as an indication of something.

No, I was talking about SUM of games missed during 3 seasons.

2.9 MOV is NOT a championship level team. (It's about the 350th-best MOV in NBA history.)

1988 Pistons efficiency differential with Dantley was +4.9. That's better than 2011 Mavs, and not much worse than 2010 Lakers.

[ElGee]

Sorry you are correct it is 4.9.

Still, I don't really follow this argument: He was on a really good team, one that was (much) better without him. Therefore I think he's good.

Huh??

[penbeast0]

The Dantley argument for me is similar to the Kemp one . . . who you gonna believe, in/out numbers or my lying eyes? I saw Dantley and while he was far from a perfect player, he dominated people in a manner very similar to Nique and required a similar offensive strategy to utilize his isolation skills it seemed. Just that Nique had Mike Fratello as coach who did a very good job with him (and another terrific job with a weak Cleveland team that was basically just the Terrell Brandon show) while Dantley had coaches (then Isiah) who didn't -- again, based on the eye test. The boxscore numbers say it too except they really underscore how much MORE effective Dantley was than Nique and it's not like Nique was making a positive impact on defense.

For Kemp, it's the defensive impact that ElGee's numbers seem to show that I just can't believe having watched him. When I watched him, he seemed superathletic but with a low basketball IQ out there, biting on fakes constantly, gambling on steals, committing fouls, missing rotations -- though the strength/quickness recovery was pretty good. His boxscore impact isn't going to get him into the top 100; Lucas for one is considerably ahead of him even pace adjusted; but I just can't see his defense as that impressive having watched him.

[penbeast0]

How is Hal Greer's efficiency relative to the league and does he improve as the league improves a la Bob Pettit? Or, how is his efficiency relative to the other guards/swingmen since centers were appreciably more efficient than outside players on the whole back then (Nate Thurmond excepted). He seems to be mainly a scorer so that seems a pretty significant question to me.

And if I remember right, the team numbers don't show Mutombo having anywhere near the impact of a Bobby Jones defensively either though I don't particularly care for inefficient volume scorers which is what Cunningham's main claim to inclusion is.

[penbeast0]

Note: Looking at B-R.com's HOF probability index (which is based on how the Hall has voted, not how good players are) while there are a number of 50s players we haven't voted in yet, the top players whose careers started in 1960+ are:

(19. Tom Heinsohn) -- just so we don't get too excited about this tool

39. Jerry Lucas
48. Dave DeBusschere

59. Bailey Howell
60. Billy Cunningham

62. Lenny Wilkens
67. JoJo White

71. Adrian Dantley

[therealbig3]

Here's Hal Greer's efficiency (TS%) relative to league average year by year (61-71, his prime):

61: +3.0%
62: +2.1%
63: +3.4%
64: +2.1%
65: +1.6%
66: +1.7%
67: +1.7%
68: +3.1%
69: +2.6%
70: -0.5%
71: -1.3%

Overall, yeah, it looks like he did increase his efficiency as league average increased. He ended his prime with a couple of years below league average, but not by a lot, and overall, he was usually decently efficient.

In the playoffs, from 61-71 (not including his 5 min. in 62), Greer had a TS of 49.1%. This is around what league average was at the time. Over this time, he averaged, per 36 (and difference from regular season per 36):

18.9 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 4.0 apg, .491 TS%

These are pretty consistent with his regular season numbers (slightly down), which is a good thing. Greer showed that he can maintain his production between the playoffs and the regular season, and he also has a few playoff runs where he exploded offensively.

[penbeast0]

Well, I am FAR from sold on either of them but I'll break the ties in favor of Mutombo and Greer.

VOTE:

Bobby Jones – penbeast0, keeslinator

Billy Cunningham – therealbig3, DavidStern, ronnymac2, Doctor MJ

Dikembe Mutombo – Dr Mufasa, drza, lukekarts, JordansBulls

Nate Archibald – Laimbeer

David Thompson – ElGee


NOMINATE:

Jerry Lucas – penbeast0, Laimbeer

Hal Greer – therealbig3, lukekarts, ronnymac2

Carmelo Anthony – Dr Mufasa

Chris Webber – drza, ElGee

Dave DeBusschere – DavidStern

Shawn Kemp – keeslinator, JordansBulls, Doctor MJ