Doctor MJ wrote:Dr Positivity wrote:Rick Barry isn't that inefficient. League average eFG in 75 was around 4 pts worse than it is now, so that turns .51 into .55 if the same adjustment is made to TS%. It's efficiency closer to Nique than Durant and King, but he was as efficient as them it wouldn't be a contest vs them, since Barry is a better passer. I do wonder if the difference between Barry and Pierce has been overrated, skillset wise Pierce can do most of the things Barry can, it's just the latter had volume scoring
I think though it's a touch dangerous to adjust for efficiency like that. If you do that across the board you get the impression that West & Oscar were absolutely insane in their efficiency early in their career, but their efficiency did not keep improving with the league as everything went along.
I'm not going to claim Barry should be looked at as a counterproductive chucker, but he was most certainly a far less effective scorer than West. Of course, I started voting for West at 14, so I'm pretty much fine with Barry getting some love now, but anyone who really had doubts about West I'd expect to see Barry's much inferior efficiency and see a sizable gap.
West and Oscar were insanely efficient compared to the rest of the league, though. When West led the league in TS% in 68 with .59 TS%, 5th was .559, 10th was .549, 20th was .527. In 2011 1st was .697, 5th was .617, 10th was .608 and 20th was .594. 1st was +10.7 in 2011 vs 1968, 5th was +5.8, 10th was +5.9, 20th was +6.7. This ties pretty well in with the difference in league average eFG between the two years (+5.2), and as a whole I think it makes sense to bump up West about 5 points, from .59 to .64 TS% or so.
The question is whether to attribute that to West, or to say "The rest of the league just had bad efficiency, while in a better one he wouldn't stand out as much". West and Oscar may have been having the greatest offensive impact in history, but that doesn't necessarily mean they're better than Magic and Bird, it could just mean everyone else is worse they're playing against. However in the cast of West and also Rick Barry, at the least we know that they'd have been one of the best 3pt shooters in the league, so that would have helped them if translated to a modern league. Furthermore we can really judge players on what they had the chance to do, and in that case Barry wasn't an inefficient gunner like a player at .50 TS% would be today, meaning for his time he wasn't taking a below average percentage shot by TS% like say, 02 Iverson was taking one.
To give another example, Barry ranked 4th on his team in TS% and 6th in eFG among players over 1000 minutes. Some other ranks: 2008 Kobe - 5th TS%, 7th eFG, 03 Tmac - 1st TS%, 3rd eFG, 10 Melo - 6th TS%, 7th eFG, 87 Nique - 5th TS%, 7th eFG, 06 Pierce - 2nd TS%, 6th eFG, 94 Pippen - 3rd TS%, 3rd eFG, 01 Iverson - 3rd TS%, 5th eFG, 02 Iverson - 6th TS%, 7th eFG, 62 Baylor - 3rd TS%, 5th eFG, 65 Baylor - 7th TS%, 7th eFG
Barry's efficiency compared to teammates ranks better than 08 Kobe, 10 Melo, 87 Nique, 02 Iverson, and 65 Baylor as he is above in both TS% and eFG rank. OTOH he is below 03 Tmac, 06 Pierce, 94 Pippen, 01 Iverson, 62 Baylor. Also therealbig3 did what I was too lazy to, actually calculate TS%, and Barry is still above average. So basically everything here is pointing towards treating him like a 30ppg .54 TS% guy a la Nique's scoring, rather than some 02 Iverson/65 Baylor shooting % that's so bad that they're probably hurting their team by taking the shots. With elite playmaking and spacing, that's a pretty sick player.
Also while I don't like attributing team success to a player, it reminds me of how I trust Nique in 87 a little more from a "If him taking 27 shots a game at so so efficiency is bad, how did they get to a top 5 offense without a ton of supporting talent?". Likewise the Warriors finish 2nd in ORTG with a team that's not very impressive offensively outside of Barry with him taking 30 shots a game, and a top 5 defensive rank, like the Hawks finishing 2nd in 87, at least rules out "they were cheating towards the offensive end at the cost of defense".
I'm actually leaning towards voting Pierce before Barry, but I don't think Barry should be treated like some AI in a bad year type of gunner, nor should pre-surgery Elgin Baylor