RealGM Top Ten GOAT Straw Poll RESULTS

[DQuinn1575]

I'm not sure I really understand this argument. I'm sure a lot of people feel the same way when it comes to Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain, and you obviously don't see them as being all that close from an all-time perspective. Maybe it's the same way with these two? .

With Wilt and Russell the argument is 11-2 and it is still an argument. If it was 5-3 then Russell wouldnt have an argument

From my perspective, Bird individually struggled plenty of times in the playoffs.

Bird shot .496 fg% in playoffs, .472 in regular season, a .024 drop
Magic shot .520 fg% in playoffs, .506 in regular seaon, .014 drop - Magic is helped by the fact that in 1981, his worst year, he only played 3 games

So, yes, Bird did not shoot as well overall as Magic in the playoffs


...he wasn't a very efficient playoff scorer himself until 1984.[/quote]

In 1980 and 81, Bird shot about the league regular TS% both years with about 25% usage - that would be efficient.

He's not really all that relevant of a player after that, aside from a solid 1990 campaign..

1991 he was 19.4/8.5/7.2 and was 9th in MVP voting - that is relevant, but below his prime

Obviously, Bird's game was a whole lot more than just scoring points, but in comparison to Magic...I don't really see him individually struggling all that much in the playoffs during his prime...

Magic struggled in 3 playoffs

1981
1984
1991

Each of these 3 were worse than any playoff series Bird ever had

I mean, Magic's prime probably begins in 1984, same as Bird's. Bird entered the league as the better player, and was probably better from 1980-1983...

Bird's prime started when he started in the NBA - His first year the team improved by over 30 games. He was 2nd in MVP voting 3 years in a row, and was one of the top 3 players in the game.

Magic did not make all-NBA his first 2 years, and was 2nd team in 1982.

So there is no probably,

But since both of these guys are primarily offensive players, let's just look at some of the numbers they were putting up in the playoffs, during that time.

1980-1983 playoffs, Magic Johnson, per 36 (48 games): 16/9/9, 58% TS, 117 ORating, 21.4 PER

1980-1983 playoffs, Larry Bird, per 36 (44 games): 18/11/5, 51% TS, 105 ORating, 19.9 PER

That's a pretty huge difference in offensive efficiency in the playoffs. And their raw production probably favors Magic, if anything....

Magic single handedly lost a playoff series to an inferior team in 1981. Hard to say that favors Magic.

1984-1988 playoffs, Magic Johnson, per 36 (96 games): 18/6/13, 60% TS, 125 ORating, 23.7 PER

1984-1988 playoffs, Larry Bird, per 36 (101 games): 22/8/6, 58% TS, 118 ORating, 22.7 PER

Much closer, but Magic still owns a clear edge in offensive efficiency. And PER notoriously underrates PGs like Magic, and tends to overrate volume scorers like Bird...and yet Magic still posts the superior playoff PER.....

Once again, Magic lost a series for his team in 1984.
PER to me is a real real rough estimate, and I dont use that to compare 2 players who are anywhere close to each other.

After that, like I said, Bird has a solid year in 1990, but his career is pretty much over other than that. Magic still posts 3 GREAT years from 89-91, before he retires......

Magic was better in 89-91, and I omitted a probably

1989-1991 playoffs, Magic Johnson, per 36 (42 games): 19/6/11, 60% TS, 122 ORating, 23.4 PER
[quote=]So that's probably why Magic has developed a clear separation from Bird in a lot of all-time rankings...playoff consistency.
......[/quote]

That's the point, Magic had 3 terrible playoff losses that he caused, and he gets ranked higher than Bird because of playoff consistency.

The one major counter-argument to that point, however, would be playoff competition...it's no secret that the East was a lot tougher than the West at this time.

Average RS DRating of opponents, 1980-1983 playoffs, Magic Johnson: -2.2
Average RS DRating of opponents, 1980-1983 playoffs, Larry Bird: -2.3

Average RS DRating of opponents, 1984-1988 playoffs, Magic Johnson: -0.2
Average RS DRating of opponents, 1984-1988 playoffs, Larry Bird: -1.5

......

Bird's team never lost to an inferior team in the playoffs. Magic did twice.

...but from 1980-1983, Magic and Bird faced similar defenses, and Magic was CLEARLY more effective than Bird offensively over that stretch.......

Shooting 39% in a loss to a .500 team is not CLEARLY more effective.
And in the regular season Bird was CLEARLY more effective than Magic

So even before we get to post-1988, which Magic handily wins, I already have Magic ahead of Bird due to superior individual playoff performances by Magic..........

So, the MVP and players thought Bird was better virtually every single season.
And Magic had 2 playoff series blunders.

In 1987, Bird was considered the greatest forward of all-time.
At that time, people were starting to take Magic over Jerry West as the 3rd best guard ever behind Jordan and Oscar.

add another 3 years of near GOAT-level play by Magic from 1989-1991, and yeah, I can certainly see Magic separating himself to the point where you can start sliding in other great players between them, such as Duncan, Shaq, LeBron, Wilt, and Hakeem.

Magic played 9 more NBA games than Bird,
He had 3 terrible playoff series.
And yet he is rated ahead of Bird due to longevity and playoff superiority.

[therealbig3]

You keep pointing to these 3 terrible playoff series from Magic as to why Bird was better...you even go as far as saying that Magic CAUSED these losses.

And yet no mention of Bird's horrible 1982 playoff series against the Sixers, where he had a 45% TS and his team lost in 7 games. I guess I'll say that Bird caused that loss as well.

Bird's 1983 playoff series against the Bucks, where he had a 45% TS and his team got swept. I guess I'll say that Bird caused that loss as well.

Bird's 1985 Finals series against the Lakers, where he had a 53% TS and his team lost in 6 games, and his play suffered because he got into a bar fight. He clearly caused that loss.

Bird's 1988 playoff series against the Pistons, where he had a 45% TS and his team lost in 6 games. He must have caused that loss as well.

Meanwhile, Magic's numbers were great in the 1984 and 1991 Finals. I guess you're just pointing to some mental mistakes he made, which only serve to form a narrative and don't really explain how he actually played overall. Yeah, he played poorly in 1981, but that's ONE series. Bird's got multiple.

[RayBan-Sematra]

1991 he was 19.4/8.5/7.2 and was 9th in MVP voting - that is relevant, but below his prime

In the playoffs he averaged 17 / 7 / 7 on 49%TS plus he was a defensive liability and a clear negative on that end.
Don't get me wrong. Bird was still as always chocked full of basketball brilliance even as he carried around his broken body but he probably wasn't an ideal #1 option by then or even an ideal high minute 2nd option.

Bird by 91 would have been best used in an older Duncan type role where he would play 28-30mpg on a deep team or on a team led by other stars.

[Owly]

On the Magic versus Bird topic ...

-Magic's Lakers' (lack of) competition in the West will artificially inflate his playoff numbers (and Bird's will look worse playing in the East)

-In '81 Magic quite possibly cost his his team (though I don't like to ever put a series on one player, a team beats another team, but in any case he was substantially below par, he shot awfully), but it's a 3 game series, a tiny sample size to draw meaningful career based conclusions.

- The boxscore (and boxscore metrics) doesn't convey that Bird was a significantly better defender (when they were healthy).

- As I understand it metrics for the playoffs are a little less reliable (If I've understood others correctly, and they knew what they were talking about, it's about how standards are normalized against the rest of the playoffs, which might be quite different from the specific set of circumstances of a particular teams opponents, though I'm not super confident on this).


Regarding Oscar Robertson as a poor man's Magic and his ball dominance
Why poor? Was Magic his decades most efficient scorer? And from the limited info available it seems like he was a bit better defender than Magic (who started poor, became average and forced teammates to cover another position). Magic was a bit better as a rebounder (though Robertson was clearly ahead of his peers at the guard position, and he didn't have the luxury of defending the forward positions and thus being closer to the basket). Passing wise is hard to say, since the league was much more stingy with assists in Robertson's day (but Robertson was further ahead of his peers), Magic would have had the ball less until his peak, but had better players to pass to. We don't have turnover numbers for Oscar but the impression is that he seemed more meticulous and (perhaps one might argue cautious) whilst Magic was more freewheeling.

And his ball dominance (in Cincinatti) was by design. Were Arlen Bockhorn or Adrian Smith going to create their own shots? Was Wayne Embry?

[DQuinn1575]

Meanwhile, Magic's numbers were great in the 1984 and 1991 Finals. I guess you're just pointing to some mental mistakes he made, which only serve to form a narrative and don't really explain how he actually played overall. Yeah, he played poorly in 1981, but that's ONE series. Bird's got multiple.

Sometimes great numbers aren't the story:

He inexplicably dribbled out the clock when Game 2 was tied and the Lakers lost in overtime. He committed a costly turnover that sent Game 4 to overtime and missed two free throws that would've tied the score. Somehow, the Lakers still made it to Game 7...where Johnson lost the ball with just under a minute remaining and sealed a title for the Celtics.

http://www.complex.com/sports/2011/04/t ... ic-johnson

In 1991, Magic got completely shut down by Pippen after Game 1 - going 4 games in a row not hitting 1/2 his shots, and never able to get off more than 15 shots.

Bird does NOT have a strong playoff resume.

But I dont think Magic's is so stellar that I rank him above Bird.

[therealbig3]

-Magic's Lakers' (lack of) competition in the West will artificially inflate his playoff numbers (and Bird's will look worse playing in the East)

True, but that was only the case during 84-88, when Magic played pretty mediocre defensive teams, while Bird played stronger defensive teams. They were both pretty even at this time...I would say when Bird was healthy (84, 86, and 87), he was the slightly better player (which is why I have Bird over Magic in terms of peak...although I'd have to retract giving 87 to Bird, I think...Magic was insanely good that year...at the very least, that season is probably a tie...I'd still give Bird the edge in 84 and 86), but when Bird was injured and his play was affected (85 and 88), I'd definitely take Magic.

And from 80-83, the caliber of defenses they played were pretty similar, and Magic clearly outperformed Bird during that time.

- The boxscore (and boxscore metrics) doesn't convey that Bird was a significantly better defender (when they were healthy).

I agree with this also, Bird was a better defender. But how much more of an impact was he making defensively? How does it compare to their offensive impact? I'm inclined to say that it's not that significant of a factor when talking about these two players.

For example, a lot of LeBron James's value comes from his defense. He coasted for the majority of the RS on that end, and as a result, I would say he was a net neutral defensive player at best during the RS. And he was still clearly the 2nd best player in the league during the RS, and it took an absolutely epic RS from Durant to supplant him, because his offense is that good.

Similarly, when talking about two players whose offensive impact is just that good in Bird and Magic, defense serves as a tiebreaker, or as something that evens the playing field when two players are close enough offensively (such as CP3 vs Nash, for example). But the offensive side of the ball seems to clearly favor Magic for the most part come playoff time, specifically 80-83. So I can't really give Bird the edge or the tie based on defense when he's being outperformed offensively by that kind of a margin.

- As I understand it metrics for the playoffs are a little less reliable (If I've understood others correctly, and they knew what they were talking about, it's about how standards are normalized against the rest of the playoffs, which might be quite different from the specific set of circumstances of a particular teams opponents, though I'm not super confident on this).

This is true regarding PER, so it should probably be disregarded. But I believe the other metrics are fair and valid.

Good points about Oscar, I'll look into him more when I have the time.

[therealbig3]

Meanwhile, Magic's numbers were great in the 1984 and 1991 Finals. I guess you're just pointing to some mental mistakes he made, which only serve to form a narrative and don't really explain how he actually played overall. Yeah, he played poorly in 1981, but that's ONE series. Bird's got multiple.

Sometimes great numbers aren't the story:

He inexplicably dribbled out the clock when Game 2 was tied and the Lakers lost in overtime. He committed a costly turnover that sent Game 4 to overtime and missed two free throws that would've tied the score. Somehow, the Lakers still made it to Game 7...where Johnson lost the ball with just under a minute remaining and sealed a title for the Celtics.

http://www.complex.com/sports/2011/04/t ... ic-johnson

In 1991, Magic got completely shut down by Pippen after Game 1 - going 4 games in a row not hitting 1/2 his shots, and never able to get off more than 15 shots.

Bird does NOT have a strong playoff resume.

But I dont think Magic's is so stellar that I rank him above Bird.

But see, this is kind of what I mean, you're picking apart isolated incidents where Magic made a mistake, and ignoring the overall bigger picture with regards to how Magic played. It sounds a lot like the LeBron criticisms that I've heard over the years.

In the 1984 Finals, Magic averaged 18/8/14 (as well as 4.4 TOpg) on 61% TS. I don't see why that should be overlooked in favor of 4 specific plays where he made a mistake.

And let's look at that series in a little more detail. In game 2, yeah, I know what you're talking about...and what people ignore is that Magic was still the best overall player on the court that day. He easily outplayed Bird in that game.

And the game 4 loss, which only tied the series up for Boston, was after a game 3 in which Magic led his team to a 33-point blowout win over Boston, in which he dropped a 14/11/21 triple double with just 2 TOs. The only reason the Lakers were in position to win that series in the first place was because of Magic being awesome. And even in game 4, Magic had another monster triple double, but all anyone can focus on is a TO and 2 missed FTs out of everything he did that game.

Magic has his first bad game of the series in game 5, which is a blowout win by the Celtics...I find it really funny that nobody talks about this game, ever. This is actually a game where Magic can be legitimately criticized, and instead, every criticism I've heard of him in this series focuses on games where he otherwise played like a monster.

And with regards to how the Lakers somehow got to game 7...Magic was kind of a big reason why they won game 6.

And again, I wish criticism of a player was more reasonable...instead of focusing on just a single TO at the end of game 7, why not talk about how Magic only shot 5-14 for the whole game and had 7 total TOs? A basketball game isn't ever decided by a few plays towards the end, I think the totality of each game should be considered when evaluating someone.

As for the 1991 Finals, yes, Magic was significantly slowed down from game 2 onwards, but first of all, Pippen didn't really guard him that much...Jordan was still Magic's primary defender the overwhelming majority of the time. And second of all, Magic did not get shut down. He still played very well, and it's hard to really fault him when his team was just inferior. Pippen emerged as a legit star, they had absolutely no answer for Jordan, and Worthy was injured.

[spectacularmove]

Dont understand why Magic is so ahead of Larry and Lebron. The vast majority gives Lebron the edge on both prime and peak, and Magic only played 1 more season, its not like he had a super longetivity.

I see Magic going down a few spots the next couple of years

[Quotatious]

Dont understand why Magic is so ahead of Larry and Lebron. The vast majority gives Lebron the edge on both prime and peak, and Magic only played 1 more season, its not like he had a super longetivity.

I definitely agree with that.

I see Magic going down a few spots the next couple of years

Why so? What exactly do you mean by that?

[DQuinn1575]

Meanwhile, Magic's numbers were great in the 1984 and 1991 Finals. I guess you're just pointing to some mental mistakes he made, which only serve to form a narrative and don't really explain how he actually played overall. Yeah, he played poorly in 1981, but that's ONE series. Bird's got multiple.

Sometimes great numbers aren't the story:

He inexplicably dribbled out the clock when Game 2 was tied and the Lakers lost in overtime. He committed a costly turnover that sent Game 4 to overtime and missed two free throws that would've tied the score. Somehow, the Lakers still made it to Game 7...where Johnson lost the ball with just under a minute remaining and sealed a title for the Celtics.

http://www.complex.com/sports/2011/04/t ... ic-johnson

In 1991, Magic got completely shut down by Pippen after Game 1 - going 4 games in a row not hitting 1/2 his shots, and never able to get off more than 15 shots.

Bird does NOT have a strong playoff resume.

But I dont think Magic's is so stellar that I rank him above Bird.

But see, this is kind of what I mean, you're picking apart isolated incidents where Magic made a mistake, and ignoring the overall bigger picture with regards to how Magic played. It sounds a lot like the LeBron criticisms that I've heard over the years.

In the 1984 Finals, Magic averaged 18/8/14 (as well as 4.4 TOpg) on 61% TS. I don't see why that should be overlooked in favor of 4 specific plays where he made a mistake.

And let's look at that series in a little more detail. In game 2, yeah, I know what you're talking about...and what people ignore is that Magic was still the best overall player on the court that day. He easily outplayed Bird in that game.

And the game 4 loss, which only tied the series up for Boston, was after a game 3 in which Magic led his team to a 33-point blowout win over Boston, in which he dropped a 14/11/21 triple double with just 2 TOs. The only reason the Lakers were in position to win that series in the first place was because of Magic being awesome. And even in game 4, Magic had another monster triple double, but all anyone can focus on is a TO and 2 missed FTs out of everything he did that game.

Magic has his first bad game of the series in game 5, which is a blowout win by the Celtics...I find it really funny that nobody talks about this game, ever. This is actually a game where Magic can be legitimately criticized, and instead, every criticism I've heard of him in this series focuses on games where he otherwise played like a monster.

And with regards to how the Lakers somehow got to game 7...Magic was kind of a big reason why they won game 6.

And again, I wish criticism of a player was more reasonable...instead of focusing on just a single TO at the end of game 7, why not talk about how Magic only shot 5-14 for the whole game and had 7 total TOs? A basketball game isn't ever decided by a few plays towards the end, I think the totality of each game should be considered when evaluating someone.

As for the 1991 Finals, yes, Magic was significantly slowed down from game 2 onwards, but first of all, Pippen didn't really guard him that much...Jordan was still Magic's primary defender the overwhelming majority of the time. And second of all, Magic did not get shut down. He still played very well, and it's hard to really fault him when his team was just inferior. Pippen emerged as a legit star, they had absolutely no answer for Jordan, and Worthy was injured.

Three games where it comes down to the end and he doesn't come through.
I have no more on that.
Pippen guarded magic
But it doesn't matter who. Had the lakers won game 2 or game 3 they would have won that series.
Not saying it wasn't hard but put wade or nowitzki in magics place and the lakers win the series

[ElGee]

I think anyone seeing that big of a gap between Magic & Bird needs to check themselves.

I'm not sure I really understand this argument. I'm sure a lot of people feel the same way when it comes to Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain, and you obviously don't see them as being all that close from an all-time perspective. Maybe it's the same way with these two?

From my perspective, Bird individually struggled plenty of times in the playoffs...he wasn't a very efficient playoff scorer himself until 1984, and from that point onwards, he has 3 dominant playoff runs: 1984, 1986, and 1987. 1985 and 1988 are basically ruined by injury. He's not really all that relevant of a player after that, aside from a solid 1990 campaign.

Obviously, Bird's game was a whole lot more than just scoring points, but in comparison to Magic...I don't really see him individually struggling all that much in the playoffs during his prime.

I mean, Magic's prime probably begins in 1984, same as Bird's. Bird entered the league as the better player, and was probably better from 1980-1983. But since both of these guys are primarily offensive players, let's just look at some of the numbers they were putting up in the playoffs, during that time.

1980-1983 playoffs, Magic Johnson, per 36 (48 games): 16/9/9, 58% TS, 117 ORating, 21.4 PER

1980-1983 playoffs, Larry Bird, per 36 (44 games): 18/11/5, 51% TS, 105 ORating, 19.9 PER

That's a pretty huge difference in offensive efficiency in the playoffs. And their raw production probably favors Magic, if anything.


1984-1988 playoffs, Magic Johnson, per 36 (96 games): 18/6/13, 60% TS, 125 ORating, 23.7 PER

1984-1988 playoffs, Larry Bird, per 36 (101 games): 22/8/6, 58% TS, 118 ORating, 22.7 PER

Much closer, but Magic still owns a clear edge in offensive efficiency. And PER notoriously underrates PGs like Magic, and tends to overrate volume scorers like Bird...and yet Magic still posts the superior playoff PER.

After that, like I said, Bird has a solid year in 1990, but his career is pretty much over other than that. Magic still posts 3 GREAT years from 89-91, before he retires.

1989-1991 playoffs, Magic Johnson, per 36 (42 games): 19/6/11, 60% TS, 122 ORating, 23.4 PER

So that's probably why Magic has developed a clear separation from Bird in a lot of all-time rankings...playoff consistency. The one major counter-argument to that point, however, would be playoff competition...it's no secret that the East was a lot tougher than the West at this time.

Average RS DRating of opponents, 1980-1983 playoffs, Magic Johnson: -2.2
Average RS DRating of opponents, 1980-1983 playoffs, Larry Bird: -2.3

Average RS DRating of opponents, 1984-1988 playoffs, Magic Johnson: -0.2
Average RS DRating of opponents, 1984-1988 playoffs, Larry Bird: -1.5


So Bird did play tougher defenses during both of their primes (84-88), which I guess means that you can make a reasonable argument that it balances the offensive impact between the two during that time...but from 1980-1983, Magic and Bird faced similar defenses, and Magic was CLEARLY more effective than Bird offensively over that stretch.

So even before we get to post-1988, which Magic handily wins, I already have Magic ahead of Bird due to superior individual playoff performances by Magic...add another 3 years of near GOAT-level play by Magic from 1989-1991, and yeah, I can certainly see Magic separating himself to the point where you can start sliding in other great players between them, such as Duncan, Shaq, LeBron, Wilt, and Hakeem.

I'm going to rain check this in advance. If it it isn't addressed in full in the top 100 project and I have time to interject in some detail I will there. But here's what I see on this issue from people in short:

-TS% is misunderstand mathematically and overvalued.

-When you telescope on an individuals efficiency, you often lose sight of his global contributions.

-Bird's supposed "failures" or bad series are essentially non-existent, with the exception of perhaps one series. Otherwise, you've got the flu in 1983, some weird coaching, and without a doubt, injuries. But I see this narrative of him having "bad playoffs" as absolutely off base. He was a herculean player from like 1983-1988 when healthy, particular on offense...which is ironic since that's where the narrative has fuel. If anything, he's vastly underrated as a team defender and overall player in his first few years and his D tapered off as his offense got better...

[ronnymac2]

-Bird's supposed "failures" or bad series are essentially non-existent, with the exception of perhaps one series. Otherwise, you've got the flu in 1983, some weird coaching, and without a doubt, injuries. But I see this narrative of him having "bad playoffs" as absolutely off base. He was a herculean player from like 1983-1988 when healthy, particular on offense...which is ironic since that's where the narrative has fuel. If anything, he's vastly underrated as a team defender and overall player in his first few years and his D tapered off as his offense got better...

Unrelated..do you see a parallel between Bird in '88 and LeBron in 2014? Dropoff in consistency on defense but a more complete offensive skillset than ever before with possibly each of their best offensive seasons in their respective careers? Only difference being Bird's efficiency tapering off against a great defender and great defensive team in the small sample playoff series, while LBJ was amazing in the playoffs and Finals...

[RayBan-Sematra]

Three games where it comes down to the end and he doesn't come through.
I have no more on that.
Pippen guarded magic
But it doesn't matter who. Had the lakers won game 2 or game 3 they would have won that series.
Not saying it wasn't hard but put wade or nowitzki in magics place and the lakers win the series

What did Magic average over those 3 games?
18ppg on 56%TS with 11-12apg?

How much better is Dirk gonna do against such a tough defensive team?
29ppg on 60%TS? Even then will his impact be greater given he will probably average 7-9 less apg?
Is he even gonna play that well given the effectiveness of the Chicago defense? Dirk at times struggled badly against T-Mac. How do you think he'd do against Pippen?

Is Wade gonna average 30 / 5 / 5 on 57%TS which is probably what he'd need to do in order to surpass Magics level of play in that series?
Maybe he will... certainly he had amazing series against tough defenses but he probably never faced a combo like Jordan/Pippen in their Prime.

[ElGee]

-Bird's supposed "failures" or bad series are essentially non-existent, with the exception of perhaps one series. Otherwise, you've got the flu in 1983, some weird coaching, and without a doubt, injuries. But I see this narrative of him having "bad playoffs" as absolutely off base. He was a herculean player from like 1983-1988 when healthy, particular on offense...which is ironic since that's where the narrative has fuel. If anything, he's vastly underrated as a team defender and overall player in his first few years and his D tapered off as his offense got better...

Unrelated..do you see a parallel between Bird in '88 and LeBron in 2014? Dropoff in consistency on defense but a more complete offensive skillset than ever before with possibly each of their best offensive seasons in their respective careers? Only difference being Bird's efficiency tapering off against a great defender and great defensive team in the small sample playoff series, while LBJ was amazing in the playoffs and Finals...

Yes, in the sense that I'm a huge proponent of late offensive peaks among most great players. I won't go into a long list now, but I see a pattern over and over where guys hone and refine the offensive skills as their athleticism and gas-tank limits them defensively. Usually like 30-32 IMO we see the best offensive performance...it makes sense neurologically as well.

[Greatness]

I'm also of the opinion that Kareem is the GOAT and I will be making that case in the top 100 project

[baki]

Thanks to therealbig3 for doing the work and compiling the results (below). I asked the original thread be locked to avoid confusion with any late voting.

viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1327767


1. Michael Jordan (296 points)
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (250 points)
3. Bill Russell (221 points)
4. Magic Johnson (177 points)
5. Shaquille O'Neal (161 points)
6. Tim Duncan (141 points)
7. Wilt Chamberlain (110 points)
8. LeBron James (100 points)
9. Hakeem Olajuwon (96 points)
10. Larry Bird (69 points)
11. Kobe Bryant (11 points)
12. Kevin Garnett (10 points)
13. Oscar Robertson (7 points)
14. Julius Erving/Jerry West (1 point)

Notes:

-4 voters didn't rank Michael Jordan 1st...those 4 ranked him 2nd

-4 players were on everyone's top 10 list: Michael Jordan, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Russell, and Tim Duncan

-The highest rank on any list for all the listed players: Michael Jordan (#1), Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (#1), Bill Russell (#1), Magic Johnson (#2), Shaquille O'Neal (#3), Tim Duncan (#3), Wilt Chamberlain (#3), LeBron James (#3), Hakeem Olajuwon (#4), Larry Bird (#5), Kobe Bryant (#9), Kevin Garnett (#7), Oscar Robertson (#7), Julius Erving (#10), Jerry West (#10)

I'm always surprised when Olajuwon gets rated as highly as he does, not to mention Kevin Garnett. Robinson is at least Olajuwon's equal.

I am surprised that Bird got rated so low.

[therealbig3]

I'm going to rain check this in advance. If it it isn't addressed in full in the top 100 project and I have time to interject in some detail I will there.

Looking forward to it. I'm genuinely interested in what I'm just not seeing with regards to Magic vs Bird...I've got Magic with a clear edge as of right now.

-TS% is misunderstand mathematically and overvalued.

Just a snapshot of efficiency that I'm using to support my point with regards to Bird's relative struggles (whether or not they're due to injuries, sickness, coaching, or just "being off").

-When you telescope on an individuals efficiency, you often lose sight of his global contributions.

Obviously, and I understand that Bird is an example of a guy whose efficiency alone doesn't come close to telling you what he provided for his team. But Magic is a player that's the same way. His impact goes way beyond simply what his efficiency is. I've seen your breakdown of how Bird puts pressure on opposing defenses without even having the basketball, due to the threat of his jump shooting, and his scrappiness off-ball which results in team fouls (I'm referring to your 1987 RPOY ballot in which you break down both Bird and Magic, as this is a year where both guys are basically at their best and gives us a good snapshot of how they compared). Magic, OTOH, was just an absolute terror in the open court and a brilliant passer who saw things that others didn't. I'd add to your breakdown that he was also pretty much an unstoppable post player, due to his size and vision, and ran a lot of the Lakers offense from the post. He had the LeBron effect on defenses, where every defender had to keep an eye on him at all times, which distorted the defense and opened up the offense, even if he didn't necessarily score a basket or get the assist. Bird was kind of the same way, except since he didn't have a huge size mismatch like Magic did, he didn't dominate to the same extent out of the post imo.

So how do you quantify their respective global contributions? Each style of play has its own advantages, and it sounds like it would come down to personal preference and team make-up that determines which player brings more to the table. But as far as what we CAN quantify in terms of their offensive abilities, Magic does seem to be a far more efficient performer in the playoffs. And isn't the box score generally considered to be a pretty good estimation of offensive value? It's defense that it really misses, not really offense.

-Bird's supposed "failures" or bad series are essentially non-existent, with the exception of perhaps one series. Otherwise, you've got the flu in 1983, some weird coaching, and without a doubt, injuries. But I see this narrative of him having "bad playoffs" as absolutely off base. He was a herculean player from like 1983-1988 when healthy, particular on offense...which is ironic since that's where the narrative has fuel. If anything, he's vastly underrated as a team defender and overall player in his first few years and his D tapered off as his offense got better...

But if he's consistently dealing with problems that hinder his performance at times, while Magic isn't...doesn't that kind of automatically mean that Magic is the superior choice?

[Quotatious]

Here are the preliminary results of the same poll, but on the General Board (48 people have voted so far, semi-sentient, MisterHibachi, PaulieWal, Narigo, DQuinn are some of the notable voters).

1. Michael Jordan - 466
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar - 402
3. Bill Russell - 329
4. Magic Johnson - 289
5. Wilt Chamberlain - 262
6. Tim Duncan - 211
7. Larry Bird - 194
8. Shaquille O'Neal - 170
9. LeBron James - 100
10. Hakeem Olajuwon - 93
11. Kobe Bryant - 80
12. Oscar Robertson - 35

So, pretty much a pleasant surprise - no Kobe in the top 6.

Some similarities and differences between the polls on the PC and GB:

Top 4 is the same, in the same order, and Duncan is #6 on both lists, but Wilt and Shaq are in reverse order (PC board values Shaq more), plus the GB ranks Bird ahead of LeBron and Hakeem. More votes for Oscar on the GB, too.

[DQuinn1575]

[(I'm referring to your 1987 RPOY ballot in which you break down both Bird and Magic, as this is a year where both guys are basically at their best and gives us a good snapshot of how they compared). Magic, OTOH, was just an absolute terror in the open court and a brilliant passer who saw things that others didn't. I'd add to your breakdown that he was also pretty much an unstoppable post player, due to his size and vision, and ran a lot of the Lakers offense from the post. He had the LeBron effect on defenses, where every defender had to keep an eye on him at all times, which distorted the defense and opened up the offense, even if he didn't necessarily score a basket or get the assist.

1)Bird and Magic were fairly even in 1987 and 1988, and Magic probably gets the edge in 87, and Bird in 1988
However, Bird was better every year from 1980-1986
Magic is better 1989-1991, when Bird is past peak.
So Bird is better 8 years of the first 9, then gets old and Magic passes him.

2)Unstoppable post player - he made a junior junior junior sky hook once. He was very good at backing guys down one on one. But unstoppable post player - where does this come from? Jordan and Kobe were much better post players, to name two.

3) Magic did not have a LeBron effect on people. He was awesome with the ball, and incredible on the break. But off the ball? His usage was around 19%-20% his first 6 years - scoring 18 ppg or so.


Here is Magic 80-84 versus Stockton 88-95

Stockton 19.5 usg .613 ts% .542 asst% .167 winshares/game
Magic 20.4 usg .601 ts% .329 asst% .155 winshares/game

Obviously Magic is a much better rebounder, but Stockton was much better defensively.

So, was 80-84 Magic that much better than Stockton prime?

This is 5 of his 12 years.

He then improved his outside shooting and became a bigger part of the offense, as opposed to a 20% usage guy.
But until then - 1986 - Bird was much better.

[PaulieWal]

So, pretty much a pleasant surprise - no Kobe in the top 6.

Color me surprised. I still maintain that if you did it a couple of days after the Finals Kobe would have been higher than he is right now. I also saw more Kobe in the top 5 than LeBron if that makes sense. It is a very small sample size, however. The GB is incredibly active you would probably need a couple of more days to get a more accurate representation of where posters there stand.