RealGM Top 100 List #52

[SactoKingsFan]

Melo says hi

I'm not sure how you feel this statement is relevant to the above observations, as Melo was a constant thru all years in question: was in his prime by '06 with no significant improvement thru '09, nor did he miss overly significant games in any of these years.

i'm just saying melo should be in this discussion. Keep hating though... your hate is hilarious

If you think Melo should be in the discussion, then you'll have to show that he has at least a solid case over guys like Nique, Carter and Manu who will all likely gain significant traction well before Melo.

Sent from my LG-G2 using RealGM Forums

[Texas Chuck]

Melo says hi

I'm not sure how you feel this statement is relevant to the above observations, as Melo was a constant thru all years in question: was in his prime by '06 with no significant improvement thru '09, nor did he miss overly significant games in any of these years.

i'm just saying melo should be in this discussion. Keep hating though... your hate is hilarious

This really adds nothing. Please make an actual case for Melo instead of just demonstrating a persecution complex. That serves no purpose.

I know I would be open to a case for Melo. I like him more than some of the more heralded 80's SF's like Dantley and English for instance.

[Moonbeam]

A quick overview of some candidates using my rough Weighted Prime Win Shares Per Game metric:

Code: Select all

Player  RS Rank  PS Rank
Anthony     104     156
Archibald    92     407
Arizin       25      43
Beaty        65      56
Bellamy      35     152
Billups      36      20
Bosh         69     103
Carter       80     128
Cousy       117      36
Cowens       85      77
Daniels     270     106
English     148     119
Gasol        49      40
Ginobili     67      44
H. Grant     72      29
Hagan        86      30
Hawkins      79     219
Hayes        93      50
Howell       52     113
Issel        54      40
Iverson      59     131
K. Johnson   49      69
M. Johnson   73      93
Johnston     18     330
B. Jones    124      84
S. Jones     88      17
Kemp         82      70
B. King     136     288
Lanier       39      55
Macauley     27     129
Marion       47     117
McAdoo       45     140
Mikkelsen    66      92
Moncrief     51     122
Nance        63     123
Porter       94      66
Rodman      116     100
Sharman      75      39
Stoudemire   64     107
Thurmond    180     193
Unseld       78      60
B. Wallace   99      46
R. Wallace  122      72
C. Walker    57      71
Walton      268     254
Wilkins      60     281
G. Williams 167      57
Worthy      132      42


My main contenders are Alex English, Pau Gasol, Sam Jones, Dave Cowens, though I'd be open to suggestions for others.

For the time being, I'll register my vote for Alex English. penbeast has done a great job of highlighting his ability to succeed in many different roles and situations despite being on the same team. I might change my vote based on what I read, but for now, English gets the call - he had a long, productive, durable career and Denver really fell into ruin after he left.

[trex_8063]

I'm not sure how you feel this statement is relevant to the above observations, as Melo was a constant thru all years in question: was in his prime by '06 with no significant improvement thru '09, nor did he miss overly significant games in any of these years.

i'm just saying melo should be in this discussion. Keep hating though... your hate is hilarious

I don't recall saying anything bad about Melo at any point, and again only reason he wasn't brought up is because I was only mentioning the variables that had changed in years mentioned (and Melo isn't one of them). I think this is one of those "don't feed the troll" moments....

EDIT: Unless his initial comment "Melo says hi" was just to imply he thinks Melo should have traction by now. It just came right on the heels of my post regarding Denver '06-'09 (and further, he didn't clarify after my reply that that wasn't what he was referring to). So idk, I'm still confused....

[john248]

Voting Pau Gasol. I'll have to find my post in one of the previous threads. Did well in Memphis and lost to clearly superior teams in those 1st round exits. Great in the RS and PS for the Lakers.

Going to be a bit busy since the holidays are coming up and well...gotta entertain the family.

I'm not sure how you feel this statement is relevant to the above observations, as Melo was a constant thru all years in question: was in his prime by '06 with no significant improvement thru '09, nor did he miss overly significant games in any of these years.

i'm just saying melo should be in this discussion. Keep hating though... your hate is hilarious

I don't recall saying anything bad about Melo at any point, and again only reason he wasn't brought up is because I was only mentioning the variables that had changed in years mentioned (and Melo isn't one of them). I think this is one of those "don't feed the troll" moments....

EDIT: Unless his initial comment "Melo says hi" was just to imply he thinks Melo should have traction by now. It just came right on the heels of my post regarding Denver '06-'09 (and further, he didn't clarify after my reply that that wasn't what he was referring to). So idk, I'm still confused....

You're a better person than I am. I either would've fed the troll or not even bothered. lol

[Basketballefan]

I'm not sure how you feel this statement is relevant to the above observations, as Melo was a constant thru all years in question: was in his prime by '06 with no significant improvement thru '09, nor did he miss overly significant games in any of these years.

i'm just saying melo should be in this discussion. Keep hating though... your hate is hilarious

This really adds nothing. Please make an actual case for Melo instead of just demonstrating a persecution complex. That serves no purpose.

I know I would be open to a case for Melo. I like him more than some of the more heralded 80's SF's like Dantley and English for instance.

Why is this though?

[trex_8063]

Most likely between cowens, hayes and english here.

fwiw, Hayes/Iverson is pretty much a toss-up to me, could easily be convinced Hayes should be higher. Only reason I jumped to the AI train was he gained traction first.
Cowens is a perfectly reasonable candidate by this point, too. English as well, I suppose, though I'm just less convinced of him.

Cousy is another guy I'd like to see getting traction by now.

[Joao Saraiva]

Because Joao Saraiva had asked if adding in evaluation of '88 for Dantley helped; answer is no.

’88
12/25/87: 91 pts, .454 TS%, 94.0 ORtg, +7.14 SRS (W)
01/24/88: 111 pts, .589 TS%, 108.2 ORtg, -1.41 SRS (L)
02/09/88: 89 pts, .494 TS%, 101.7 ORtg, +21.76 SRS (W)
02/10/88: 98 pts, .576 TS%, 105.9 ORtg, +8.14 SRS (W)
02/12/88: 108 pts, .562 TS%, 104.9 ORtg, +17.02 SRS (W)
02/13/88: 82 pts, .429 TS%, 87.4 ORtg, +9.76 SRS (W)
02/15/88: 102 pts, .533 TS%, 112.0 ORtg, +3.21 SRS (W)
02/18/88: 108 pts, .577 TS%, 114.1 ORtg, +11.29 SRS (W)
02/19/88: 108 pts, .512 TS%, 105.0 ORtg, -6.79 SRS (L)
02/21/88: 110 pts, .602 TS%, 111.9 ORtg, +0.81 SRS (L)
02/23/88: 121 pts, .633 TS%, 127.0 ORtg, +13.16 SRS (W)
02/24/88: 107 pts, .534 TS%, 110.5 ORtg, +8.62 SRS (W)
04/24/88: 128 pts, .625 TS%, 132.1 ORtg, +6.21 SRS (W)
Avg without Dantley: 104.8 ppg, .548 TS%, 108.8 ORtg, +7.61 SRS.
WITH Dantley: 110.1 ppg (+5.2), .548 TS% (+/- 0), 110.8 ORtg (+2.0), +5.05 SRS (-2.56).
10-3 (.769) record w/o, 44-25 (.638) record with.

Making new totals....
Average effect of having Dantley vs. not having him ('80-'88)
NOT weighted for games played/missed *only three years data for ts% and ORtg (‘86-’88)
+3.3 ppg
+0.4% TS%*
-1.2 ORtg*
+1.26 SRS
Weighted for games PLAYED
+3.4 ppg
+0.4% TS%*
-1.5 ORtg*
+1.63 SRS
Weighted for games MISSED
+2.7 ppg
+0.8 TS%*
+1.8 ORtg*
-0.52 SRS
51-76 (.402) record w/o him, 290-321 (.475) record with: avg +6.0 wins per 82-game season.


Again, for comparison, here is Iverson ('99-'02, '04-'06):
AVERAGE effect of having Iverson vs. not having him over these years:
NOT weighted for games played/missed
+7.3 ppg
+1.1% TS%
+2.3 ORtg
+4.61 SRS
WEIGHTED for games played
+7.4 ppg
+1.2% TS%
+2.5 ORtg
+4.21 SRS
Weighted for games missed
+7.1 ppg
+0.8% TS%
+1.4 ORtg
+2.90 SRS
39-59 record (.398) without, 251-193 record (.565) with (avg of +13.7 wins per 82-game season).


Vote for #52: Allen Iverson.

Thanks for the information. I guess I had a wrong perception of Dantley's game in 88, but then again I didn't follow the NBA every single day like I do now (I was born in 88 )

[trex_8063]

Thanks for the information. I guess I had a wrong perception of Dantley's game in 88, but then again I didn't follow the NBA every single day like I do now (I was born in 88 )

Well, fwiw, Moonbeam made some good points regarding Dantley in the playoffs that year (his minutes went up more than any other member of the roster and the Pistons played at a 8+ SRS click, Dantley getting praise for play on BOTH ends of the court).

btw Moonbeam, I read your PM, though still don't entirely agree with the explanation for the rs. Having a coach like Daly (a master of line-ups, as you called him) can certainly lessen the blow of losing one of your pseudo-stars. otoh, there's an alternate way of looking at that: If a coach like Daly can't figure out how to include Dantley in the line-up in a way that the Pistons get better (nay, even AS good) than they do without him.......the implication about Dantley isn't exactly flattering.

Good point about other coincidental line-up issues (both native, and on the teams faced). Believe me, that is something I considered. I didn't investigate that to any significant degree for two reasons: 1) laziness, 2) figuring (hoping, anyway) that "luck" of that sort would visit everyone equally over a sufficient enough sample.

[Joao Saraiva]

Thanks for the information. I guess I had a wrong perception of Dantley's game in 88, but then again I didn't follow the NBA every single day like I do now (I was born in 88 )

Well, fwiw, Moonbeam made some good points regarding Dantley in the playoffs that year (his minutes went up more than any other member of the roster and the Pistons played at a 8+ SRS click, Dantley getting praise for play on BOTH ends of the court).

btw Moonbeam, I read your PM, though still don't entirely agree with the explanation for the rs. Having a coach like Daly (a master of line-ups, as you called him) can certainly lessen the blow of losing one of your pseudo-stars. otoh, there's an alternate way of looking at that: If a coach like Daly can't figure out how to include Dantley in the line-up in a way that the Pistons get better (nay, even AS good) than they do without him.......the implication about Dantley isn't exactly flattering.

Good point about other coincidental line-up issues (both native, and on the teams faced). Believe me, that is something I considered. I didn't investigate that to any significant degree for two reasons: 1) laziness, 2) figuring (hoping, anyway) that "luck" of that sort would visit everyone equally over a sufficient enough sample.

Yes that's where my perception comes from, I watched playoff games mostly.

[E-Balla]

If you think Melo should be in the discussion, then you'll have to show that he has at least a solid case over guys like Nique, Carter and Manu who will all likely gain significant traction well before Melo.

Sent from my LG-G2 using RealGM Forums

Melo was a way better postseason performer than Nique and about even peak for peak if not better. I'll also take Melo over Manu in a heartbeat. Many is closer to Rasheed Wallace than these guys on my list. Carter is a tough one and I'd say they're roughly even.

[lukekarts]

Dave Cowens for me.

Great defensive player, moderate offensive threat, best player on a champion and second best (to Hondo, IMO) on another. Really solid career and numbers, and he's definitely someone I'd pick ahead of the current considered wing-talent (the best of whom, IMO, is English), although admittedly there's no outstanding candidate at this point.

Apologies again for going quiet for a couple of topics, I'm doing some professional qualification exams this week which adds to an already busy time at work. Business as usual soon though

[dautjazz]

I'm not a voter, but it baffles me that Hayes hasn't been picked,

16 NBA Seasons
12x All-Star
3x All-NBA First Team
3x All-NBA Second Team
2x All-Defense Second Team
1 Championship
Lead league in ppg once
Lead league in rpg twice

Career Averages: 21ppg 12.5rpg 1.8apg 1spg 2bpg FG: .452 FT: .670

His steals and blocks would probably be higher if they were official stats in his first 5 seasons. His PER sucks, probably due to his shooting efficiency? Regardless, he looks like he was a very good player, and he never missed games, just 9 games in 16 seasons.

[trex_8063]

Alex English (3) - penbeast0, ronnymac2, Moonbeam

Dominique Wilkins (1) - JordansBulls

Allen Iverson (3) - trex_8063, Joao Saraiva, E-Balla

Dave Cowens (2) - Chuck Texas, lukeharts

Bob Lanier (1) - Owly

Pau Gasol (1) - john248

Think we're about 40-42 hours in, only eleven votes so far; but looking like English will be the next person to topple AI in a run-off (I'm affording myself a little sarcasm at this point)

[Owly]

I'm not a voter, but it baffles me that Hayes hasn't been picked,

16 NBA Seasons
12x All-Star
3x All-NBA First Team
3x All-NBA Second Team
2x All-Defense Second Team
1 Championship
Lead league in ppg once
Lead league in rpg twice

Career Averages: 21ppg 12.5rpg 1.8apg 1spg 2bpg FG: .452 FT: .670

His steals and blocks would probably be higher if they were official stats in his first 5 seasons. His PER sucks, probably due to his shooting efficiency? Regardless, he looks like he was a very good player, and he never missed games, just 9 games in 16 seasons.

I'll skip the "easier to criticise ... contribute and commit/make your own list" bit since it's put fairly reasonably.

I suspect the "led league" stuff means little in and of itself, to anyone here. Ditto titles, most pure "Ringz" guys, have I think gone by this point. Even the accolades, again, in and of themself will likely mean little more important will be whether they were indicative of exceptional performance (regarding how they might not have been, or specifically how they might not have been deserved see: http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?f ... =75#p17026)

On why his PER is low:
1) His per minute productivity is perhaps a little less than first glance given the huge minutes.
2) Yes, the percentages (both from the field and the line and thus TS%)
3) Poor assist numbers.
4) Don't know if this is a "reason" but the range/SD for metrics (mainly PER) during Hayes might be low (I seem to recall McAdoo and Jabbar leading the league with around 25)

Anyway throw in unexceptional metrics, a very unremarkable peak and apparently questionable intangiables, and arguably questionable competition (70s not a great era for PFs) and it's no surprise to me that Hayes isn't in the top 50. He's probably coming soon, probably too soon for me to be amongst those voting for him.

[trex_8063]

I'm not a voter, but it baffles me that Hayes hasn't been picked,

16 NBA Seasons
12x All-Star
3x All-NBA First Team
3x All-NBA Second Team
2x All-Defense Second Team
1 Championship
Lead league in ppg once
Lead league in rpg twice

Career Averages: 21ppg 12.5rpg 1.8apg 1spg 2bpg FG: .452 FT: .670

His steals and blocks would probably be higher if they were official stats in his first 5 seasons. His PER sucks, probably due to his shooting efficiency? Regardless, he looks like he was a very good player, and he never missed games, just 9 games in 16 seasons.

I'll skip the "easier to criticise ... contribute and commit/make your own list" bit since it's put fairly reasonably.

I suspect the "led league" stuff means little in and of itself, to anyone here. Ditto titles, most pure "Ringz" guys, have I think gone by this point. Even the accolades, again, in and of themself will likely mean little more important will be whether they were indicative of exceptional performance (regarding how they might not have been, or specifically how they might not have been deserved see: http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?f ... =75#p17026)

On why his PER is low:
1) His per minute productivity is perhaps a little less than first glance given the huge minutes.
2) Yes, the percentages (both from the field and the line and thus TS%)
3) Poor assist numbers.
4) Don't know if this is a "reason" but the range/SD for metrics (mainly PER) during Hayes might be low (I seem to recall McAdoo and Jabbar leading the league with around 25)

Yeah, I've noticed this as well. It's my perception that where PER is concerned, there does appear to be less deviation from the middle in late 60's/early-mid 70's. This is reflected in many other players of that era, including some with better shooting efficiency (see Frazier or Reed, for example).

fwiw, though, I agree with dautjazz, and think Hayes should be in the mix here.

[penbeast0]

Think we're about 40-42 hours in, only eleven votes so far; but looking like English will be the next person to topple AI in a run-off (I'm affording myself a little sarcasm at this point)

Let's hope so!

[dautjazz]

I'm not a voter, but it baffles me that Hayes hasn't been picked,

16 NBA Seasons
12x All-Star
3x All-NBA First Team
3x All-NBA Second Team
2x All-Defense Second Team
1 Championship
Lead league in ppg once
Lead league in rpg twice

Career Averages: 21ppg 12.5rpg 1.8apg 1spg 2bpg FG: .452 FT: .670

His steals and blocks would probably be higher if they were official stats in his first 5 seasons. His PER sucks, probably due to his shooting efficiency? Regardless, he looks like he was a very good player, and he never missed games, just 9 games in 16 seasons.

I'll skip the "easier to criticise ... contribute and commit/make your own list" bit since it's put fairly reasonably.

I suspect the "led league" stuff means little in and of itself, to anyone here. Ditto titles, most pure "Ringz" guys, have I think gone by this point. Even the accolades, again, in and of themself will likely mean little more important will be whether they were indicative of exceptional performance (regarding how they might not have been, or specifically how they might not have been deserved see: http://apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?f ... =75#p17026)

On why his PER is low:
1) His per minute productivity is perhaps a little less than first glance given the huge minutes.
2) Yes, the percentages (both from the field and the line and thus TS%)
3) Poor assist numbers.
4) Don't know if this is a "reason" but the range/SD for metrics (mainly PER) during Hayes might be low (I seem to recall McAdoo and Jabbar leading the league with around 25)

Anyway throw in unexceptional metrics, a very unremarkable peak and apparently questionable intangiables, and arguably questionable competition (70s not a great era for PFs) and it's no surprise to me that Hayes isn't in the top 50. He's probably coming soon, probably too soon for me to be amongst those voting for him.

I understand what you're saying, I just find it hard to believe that 8th All-Time in points and 4th All-Time in rebounds would be getting topped by some of these guys like Dantley or Mutombo. I loved Mutombo, but did he really have Hayes' type of impact? Hayes was 3rd in MVP voting twice, top 10 6 times. This guy was an iron man! 50,000 minutes! You know how difficult it is to play that much and never miss time, and still maintain high averages throughout your career? Chris Paul who hasn't done diddly squat with his teams is on the list, while Hayes who was the best player on a championship team is nowhere to be found.

[RayBan-Sematra]

VOTE : Pau Gasol

-One of the greatest offensive PF's in league history.
-Solid defensive PF for the majority of his Prime with real rim protection ability.
-Solid rebounder (even this year he is around 18% TRB).
-Has excellent longevity for this stage of the project.
11 years of around 18 / 9 / 3+apg / 1.5+bpg on elite efficiency.

Beyond those 11 years he posted 17 / 10 / 3+apg / 1.5+bpg last year on 52%TS
So far this year he is posting 19 / 11 / 2apg / 2.5bpg on 55%TS

I really don't think there should be a large gap between McHale and Gasol on our list.
The truth is McHale wasn't that much better of a player.

Kevin was a slightly better scorer & defender.
Gasol was a slightly better rebounder and a far better passer.

Gasol also has a sizable edge in longevity.
He clocks in with 11 elite years compared to only 8 for McHale.

[Clyde Frazier]

Vote for #52 - Dave Cowens

- 11 year career
- 3x all NBA 2nd team
- 3x all defensive 2nd team
- 1x reg season MVP
- 2x NBA champion

74 FINALS (7 GAMES)
22.7 PPG, 9.9 RPG, 4.6 APG, 1.1 SPG, .3 BPG, 43.9% FG, 75% FT (4 FTAs per game)

76 FINALS (6 GAMES)
20.5 PPG, 16.3 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.2 SPG, .3 BPG, 53.8% FG, 71.9% FT (5.3 FTAs per game)

Going with cowens here as he had a solid 8 year prime, with major contributions to 2 championship teams. I can look past his low efficiency scoring as he had quite a versatile skill set overall. His above average passing for a big was a plus for a team in the celtics who were pretty balanced offensively.

Looking a little more closely at his passing, center seasons with at least an AST% of 13% and 4 APG:

http://bkref.com/tiny/IDbsj

Cowens makes the list 5 times, and 3 of the 4 players ahead of him were lower volume scorers. I know the 13% sounds arbitrary, but that’s a lot for a center, and he was above that multiple times, so I just used it as a baseline.

I basically have cowens and hayes as 1A and 1B for different reasons in comparison to each other. As a person who’s valued durability and longevity pretty highly in the project, hayes really stands out there. He will definitely be next on my list.