Re: RealGM Top 100 List #55

[tsherkin]

Vote Lanier.

I have liked what I have seen out of Owly's posts and he has really swayed me in that direction.

[Clyde Frazier]

Vote for #55 - Elvin Hayes

- 16 year career
- 6x all NBA (3 1st, 3 2nd)
- 2x all defensive 2nd team
- 2 top 3 and 4 top 10 MVP finishes
- 1x NBA champion

Hayes had unbelievable durability: in his 16 seasons in the league, he played in 80+ games in every season, missing a total of 9 games.

REG SEASON 69-79
23.7 PPG, 14.5 RPG, 2 APG, 1 SPG, 2.5 BPG, 45% FG, 67% FT, 49% TS, .130 WS/48

PLAYOFFS 69-79
23.2 PPG, 13.1 RPG, 1.9 APG, 1.2 SPG, 2.6 BPG, 47% FG, 65.3% FT, 50.6% TS, .143 WS/48

While he wasn't a very efficient scorer in his prime, he wasn't abysmal, either. From 69-79, his TS% of 49% was slightly below the league avg of 50.6% during that span. I will still take a player's ability to score at ~average efficiency over a player who can't score at all. He used his above average athleticism on both ends of the floor to his advantage, and helped the bullets to 3 finals runs including a championship in 78.

He also had a good case for finals MVP in 78. Per writer Dave Heeren:

Remember the Elvin Hayes incident? During the 1978 playoffs, the Championship series between Washington and Seattle reached the seventh game. Rick Barry, whose Golden State team had not qualified for the playoffs that year, was announcing that game and doing his usual candid job. He pointed out that one of the referees had a short temper and that he was especially apt to make hasty foul calls against Hayes, whom he did not like because Hayes did a lot of complaining about his calls. Hayes, who had been the series' outstanding player to that point, picked up his fourth foul during the third quarter and argued before going to the bench. The same official whistled him for his fifth and sixth fouls in quick succession after he reentered the game early in the fourth quarter. Replays showed that Hayes had not committed either of the fouls. On one of them there had been no physical contact at all.

But Hayes was out of the game, and a vindictive referee could have deprived Washington of a league championship becaus the Bullets were ahead by 8 or 10 points when Hayes went out. Paced by Bob Dandridge, the Bullets did hold on to win. But Hayes was deprived of an award he wanted and deserved. Since he had not played during the closing minutes of the championship game, the championship series MVP trophy was given to Wes Unseld. Unseld, then in the twilight of his career, had produced little offense for the Bullets and had been victimized by Seattle center Marvin Webster for 30 points, or a basket more or less, in the final game.

There's talk about attitude problems with hayes, but that largely seemed to be off the court-related, and that doesn't matter to me unless it affects on the court performance.

However, once he came the Bullets, he instantly seemed to mesh with the team, both on and off the court. Combining with Wes Unseld to anchor a potent double post offense that dominated on the boards, Hayes' arrival allowed coach Gene Shue to play an up-tempo, fast breaking three guard lineup that improved from 38 to 52 wins in just one year. The team never looked back and was a legitimate juggernaut for the rest of the 1970s.

http://www.bulletsforever.com/2012/8/22 ... on-bullets

[Quotatious]

Vote: Kevin Johnson

Best offensive peak and prime among the remaining guys, in my opinion, (both individually and in terms of having great impact on his teams, and decent longevity - he was still very productive after 1992, despite missing a ton of games - he lacked durability somewhat, but still averaged 20 points and 10 assists on 59% TS over 9 consecutive seasons, basically 600 RS games), and a decent playoff performer.
His teams never finished as worse than 7th best offense in the league during that 9 year period (top 5, more often than not).

Individual offense is more important than individual defense, and having great impact on team offense is IMO a greater accomplishment than having great impact on team defense - KJ had both, offensively.

[john248]

Vote: Kevin Johnson

Best offensive peak and prime among the remaining guys, in my opinion, (both individually and in terms of having great impact on his teams, and decent longevity (he was still very productive after 1992, despite missing a ton of games - he lacked durability somewhat, but still averaged 20 points and 10 assists on 59% TS over 9 consecutive seasons, basically 600 RS games), and a decent playoff performer.
His teams never finished as worse than 7th best offense in the league during that 9 year period (top 5, more often than not).

Individual offense is more important than individual defense, and having great impact on team offense is IMO a greater accomplishment than having great impact on team defense - KJ had both, offensively.

Ditto. Vote Kevin Johnson. Not much time here so I hope Quotatious doesn't mind me piggy backing his post. Injuries are a concern, but the guy played in a lot of playoff basketball and has done well in that regard.

[Doctor MJ]

Vote: KJ

I'll continue with KJ. Phenomenal effectiveness in a role that would if anything only be easier to be effective now. Others have mentioned a less than huge WOWY, but you have to remember he was played on extremely effective teams which oftentimes makes a player appear less necessary.

Also, while longevity is an issue, note that by Win Shares he's right up there with other guys being discussed.

[trex_8063]

I think Iverson would've already got in with a larger pool of voters.

Are you boycotting the vote at this point?

Not sure what you mean but i will probably cast my vote for Ai once again.

Didn't see you vote last thread, and you've nearly missed your chance here, too.

[Basketballefan]

Vote: Iverson

He led the Sixers to 5 consecutive playoff appearances and 6 appearances overall. He carried that franchise for many years without a lot of offensive help, he's constantly criticized for his low efficiency, high volume shots which is fair, but somewhat unwarranted, he didn't have anyone to take defensive attention away from him.

He won MVP, Scoring title, and led his team to the finals all in one season. Overall his resume is pretty impressive:

11 time all star
MVP
4 scoring titles
3 time All NBA first team
3 time All NBA second team
Rookie of the year
etc

He is 46th in career PER for NBA and 48th for ABA/NBA combined.
22nd all time in career points in NBA and 27th for ABA/NBA combined.

Several years as a top 10 player and arguably even top 5 in 2001.

7th all time in career ppg average.
2nd all time in career playoff ppg average.

His peak is impressive as well : 33 3 7 54 ts% 26 PER..his scoring efficiency is nothing special here but there's nothing wrong with high volume on average efficiency.

So aside from maybe his later years, Iverson had a positive impact on his teams, even though some will deem him as a cancer.

I also disagree that he isn't capable of leading his team to a title, he was 3 games away from doing so and he happened to be up against a dynasty that had 2 top 10 players ever.

[SactoKingsFan]

Looks like Iverson and KJ have emerged as the frontrunners. I prefer Billups over both for various reasons.

Billups over Iverson: much more efficient scorer, better defender, superior passing/playmaking, higher BBIQ, better playoff performer, more portable skillset

Billups over KJ: longevity/durability, better defender, less turnover prone, more consistent/better playoff performer

Prime Billups RS (03-10): 613 G, 20.6 PER, .593 TS%, .481 FTr, 30.6 AST%, 93.3 WS, .211 WS/48

Billups Extended Prime RS (02-11): 767 G, 20.2 PER, .592 TS%, .467 FTr, 30.0 AST%, 108.9 WS, .202 WS/48

Prime Billups PS (03-10): 133 G, 19.7 PER, .583 TS%, .508 FTr, 29.1 AST%, .199 WS/48

Vote: Chauncey Billups

Sent from my LG-G2 using RealGM Forums

[Moonbeam]

I'm in a bit of a quandry in that I'm not sure who should get my vote at this stage. There are so many worthy candidates. One name I'll throw out there is Sam Jones.

He was a potent scorer for Boston and while they certainly won predominantly on the back of all-time level defense, I think his offense was an important part of their success, too. This is somewhat borne out in his Score+, PosScore+ and TeamScore+ measures - they look less impressive relative to league average than they do compared to position and especially compared to his team, which implies that he didn't benefit from efficient teammates in the way other big scorers sometimes do.

Code: Select all

Season  Score+  PosScore+  TeamScore+
 1958    1.134    1.650      1.284
 1959    0.994    0.725      1.163
 1960    1.484    1.081      1.492
 1961    1.014    1.447      1.846
 1962    1.141    1.641      1.615
 1963    1.190    1.632      2.007
 1964    0.315    1.181      1.604
 1965    1.467    1.617      2.352
 1966    1.898    2.387      2.790
 1967    0.780    0.915      0.324
 1968    0.756    1.125      1.066
 1969   -0.548   -0.605      0.039
Total    0.983    1.272      1.533


Looks like he kept it up in the playoffs, too.

Also curious to hear what people think of Arizin, Neil Johnston and Cousy.

[SactoKingsFan]

KJ (3): Quotatious, john248, Doctor MJ

Iverson (3): Joao Saraiva, trex_8063, Basketballefan

Lanier (2): Owly, tsherkin

Carter (1): ronnymac2
Billups (1): SactoKingsFan
Hayes (1): Clyde Frazier

[trex_8063]

KJ (3): Quotatious, john248, Doctor MJ

Iverson (3): Joao Saraiva, trex_8063, Basketballefan

Lanier (2): Owly, tsherkin

Carter (1): ronnymac2
Billups (1): SactoKingsFan
Hayes (1): Clyde Frazier

Should we consider ourselves in run-off, then? We're past the 48-hr mark (by about 3 hrs, I think).

Two worthy candidates. In that comparison I like Iverson better purely for reasons of longevity: one additional season (74 rs games) of prime-level play relative to KJ, and closer to two additional seasons worth of "role player" play (241 rs games vs. 136 for KJ).

[penbeast0]

OK, it looks like a runoff between Iverson and KJ. A little disappointed that ronnymac2 wrote a pro-Carter post without mentioning Sam Jones and Moonbeam wrote a pro-Jones post without mentioning Vince Carter. It seems a head to head would be very helpful.

Between the two here, KJ seems to have had the greater team impact but also much more of an injury history. His playoff history also seems strong and he was liked and respected by coaches and teammates. Tentative vote: Kevin Johnson -- but willing to be convinced.

[Joao Saraiva]

Kevin Johnson wasn't even a top 5 player in the league any year of his career.

Allen Iverson was MVP and top 5 for the voters on other two occasions...


I know accodales aren't everything, but it really shows the way I feel about the two: KJ was a very good player but he wasn't among the best players in the league, while Iverson was.

Iverson's peak seasons are really impressive, how quickly people forget:
05-06 reg season:
33 PPG 7.4 APG 3.2 RPG 1.9 SPG 25.9 PER 54.3 ts%

07-08 reg season
26.4 PPG 7.1 APG 3.0 RPG 2.0 SPG 20.9 PER 56.7ts%

00-01 reg season
31.1 PPG 4.6 APG 3.8 RPG 2.5 SPG 24 PER 51.8ts%

Thess are extraordinary regular season numbers. I'd love to see Kevin Johnson trying to lead those Philadelphia teams anywhere... And I would also like to see Iverson going with peak Barkley on his side.

I hope Iverson really wins this one because he was the better player, and the gap is clear. Johnson was not a great 3 point shooter, but he was a good scorer on good volume. I doubt Iverson couldn't reach those ts% scoring 20 PPG. His playmaking was excellent, but per position so was Iverson's, who was giving the ball to much less talented players than KJ was, let's not ignore that.

[ronnymac2]

Run-Off Vote: Allen Iverson

Greater longevity like trex said. They were both 2 of the great penetrators in NBA history with devastating quickness. I might actually like KJ's prime more. He was a 20/10 guy on excellent teams who could and did at times ramp up his scoring volume in the playoffs. That's impressive.

I like Iverson as a playoff performer as well though, and again, the longevity is a factor. Very close comparison though.

[SactoKingsFan]

Although KJ was the more efficient scorer and better playmaker, I rank Iverson higher primarily due to longevity.

--edit--

FWIW, I think It's close and would have KJ higher than AI on my ATL if he had 1-2 more high quality seasons and/or some good post prime seasons.

Run-off vote: Allen Iverson

Sent from my LG-G2 using RealGM Forums

[HeartBreakKid]

Iverson wasn't that much better of a scorer than KJ when you bring in efficiency. Both guys suffered from being small, though KJ was still more of a typical PG size than Iverson.

The playmaking difference is pretty big here though. Johnson was a great passer, and could run offenses in a more traditional way. Iverson was a shooting guard often being forced to play point - he is the epitome of a ball stopper.

My vote goes to Kevin Johnson.

[Dipper 13]

Iverson has said that Kevin Johnson his toughest cover (as a rookie), and he was left crying at his locker after the game. Much like how Walt Frazier described his first matchup vs. Hal Greer.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEOkxnU5O4s&t=2m39s

They were both 2 of the great penetrators in NBA history with devastating quickness

I see NBA.com has removed all shot charts from their website before 2001, but I wonder how effective a finisher at the rim K.J. was. He always seemed to have a step on the defense and was very effective at finishing with either hand. His right to left crossover was almost indefensible 1 on 1.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7-bC2qulWg&t=18m17s

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7-bC2qulWg&t=1h14m56s

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9ZpZ89OpF8&t=9m16s

[SkyHookFTW]

Thinking of Dennis Rodman here but quite frankly think Bobby Jones was slightly better. Better defense (Rodman superior in the post, Jones much superior help defender, Jones didn't get into the habit of leaving his man to pad his rebounding stats), a very good low usage offensive player with excellent efficiency, good off ball movement, good passing, and of course Jones wasn't a headcase -- on the other hand, Rodman is the GOAT rebounder and having a truly elite skill like that gives coaches and GM's options they wouldn't have otherwise.

Also, if anyone is recovered from Thanksgiving (we are doing the family dinner tonight so I won't be on much), I'd love to see a comp of Sam Jones v. Vince Carter since those are the main scorers I'm thinking of. KJ is a little too injury prone, I'd probably take Moncrief first since you have a strong injury free window of at least 4 years to try for a title then his decline was fast and clear so you don't keep trying to build around him the way Portland and San Diego did around Walton.

Jones was better offensively than some give him credit for. It's just that on a team with Dr. J., Moses, and Toney, he was the fourth option. He was a heady player who was a top level player without the ball in his hands, and one of the best back side/help defenders who played. When he passed, the ball went to the right place. Smart player and a wonderful piece for any team.

[SkyHookFTW]

I'll give Dennis Johnson my vote. Excellent ball handler and top defender. He was brought to Boston on the strength of his defense, as they needed someone to stop Andrew Toney from killing them. I really wanted to say A.I. but DJ's overall impact on his team was greater if one looks at all parts of the game.

[trex_8063]

OK, it looks like a runoff between Iverson and KJ. A little disappointed that ronnymac2 wrote a pro-Carter post without mentioning Sam Jones and Moonbeam wrote a pro-Jones post without mentioning Vince Carter. It seems a head to head would be very helpful.

Between the two here, KJ seems to have had the greater team impact.......

This is not necessarily an accurate statement, imo. I've been thru this more than once before:

AVERAGE effect of having Iverson vs. not having him during prime years in Philly:
NOT weighted for games played/missed
+4.61 SRS
WEIGHTED for games played
+4.21 SRS
Weighted for games missed
+2.90 SRS

39-59 record (.398) without, 251-193 record (.565) with (avg of +13.7 wins per 82-game season).


AVERAGE effect of having prime Kevin Johnson vs. not having him.
NOT weighted for # of games played per season
+4.01 SRS.
Weighted for # of games played
+4.02 SRS
Weighted for # of games MISSED
+3.98 SRS

79-60 (.568) record w/o, 396-203 (.661) record with: +7.6 wins per 82-game season.

That looks pretty similar.
Some other tidbits on the comparison:
PER
Peak Iverson: 25.9
Prime Iverson: 21.9
career Iverson: 20.9
Peak KJ: 23.7
Prime KJ: 21.5
career KJ: 20.7

WS/48
Peak Iverson: .190
Prime Iverson: .139
career Iverson: .126
Peak KJ: .220
Prime KJ: .187
career KJ: .178

career rs Per 100 possessions: Pts+Reb+Ast+Stl+Blk-Tov
Iverson: 44.6
KJ: 41.4

BPM
Peak Iverson: 4.6
Prime Iverson: 3.2
career Iverson: 2.6
Peak KJ: 4.9
Prime KJ: 2.7
career KJ: 2.2

And as the above are all essentially per unit time measures, I'll again note the following:
Prime Iverson: 42.2 mpg
career Iverson: 41.1 mpg
Prime KJ: 36.3 mpg
career KJ: 34.1 mpg

Overall, their primes/peaks look pretty comparable (arguably in slight favor of Iverson based on minutes; WS/48 the only thing that makes it close)......except that Iverson's lasted one season longer.

VORP
Peak Iverson: 5.3
Prime Iverson: 36.0
career Iverson: 43.4
Peak KJ: 4.8
Prime KJ: 25.8
career KJ: 26.7


If one places value in things like statistical footprint and/or accolades as part of their legacy, obv Iverson wins those comps. He's 24th all-time in MVP Award Shares, vs. 101st for KJ. But I understand people not being overly fond of media-driven accolades.
However, even within RealGM itself (which, based on where we are now, doesn't appear to have an overly-high opinion of Iverson): Iverson ranks #55 all-time RealGM RPoY Shares, vs. 91st for Kevin Johnson.