Re: RealGM Top 100 List #78

Post #21 » by **trex_8063** » Wed Feb 4, 2015 5:06 am

RayBan-Sematra wrote:
trex_8063 wrote:Completely agree. I doubt Houston makes my top 200, actually. I just don't think he even has a particularly decent case over wings like Hersey Hawkins, Dan Majerle, Andre Iguodala, and John Drew.....much less the crowd we're talking about for the top 100.

Well I am a big Houstan fan so you can excuse my homerism for him.
Career wise I think I would rank him over Iggy & Marje in large part due to their lesser longevity.

You're obviously entitled to your own opinion, but I respectfully disagree.

Just as a super quick-look at a base advanced metric comparison:

Peak PER
Iguodala: 19.0
Houston: 17.7

Peak WS/48
Iguodala: .158
Houston: .130

Prime PER
Iguodala ('06-'13): 17.3
Houston ('95-'03): 15.4

Prime WS/48
Iguodala: .124
Houston: .103

Career PER
Iguodala: 16.4 (16.7 prior to start of current season)
Houston: 14.9

Career WS/48
Iguodala: .123
Houston: .094

So right across the board, whether looking at peak, prime, or career whole, Iguodala's got the clear edge in both PER and WS/48; and he does this on HIGHER mpg average, too (both are per minute metrics).
And let's not overlook that recently Iggy's been pretty boss in non-boxscore related impact studies: in recent years as his PER is decline, his RAPM numbers keep looking better and better. His best 3-year and best 5-year combos of RAPM look similar to guys like Ray Allen and Chris Bosh (and last year he was 6th in the league in PI RAPM).

Doing a little player evaluation of what they both bring to the table....
Houston's a better scorer, though I don't think the gap is as big as the gap in their quality as shooters would suggest. Iggy's much better at getting to the rim and a much much much better finisher at said rim. And then Iguodala's better at basically everything else: the gap as a rebounder is almost embarrassing, Iggy's a much better play-maker, and then the gap defensively is once again sort of embarrassing. And Houston's barely got a longevity edge on him.
I won't say it isn't close (at least as of end of last season), but I'd definitely give the edge to Iguodala even as of end of '14 (after this current season, I'll likely call it a comfortable edge).

Vs. Majerle....
Peak PER
Majerle: 17.8
Houston: 17.7

Peak WS/48
Majerle: .165
Houston: .130

Prime PER
Majerle: 15.6
Houston: 15.4

Prime WS/48
Majerle: .134
Houston: .103

Career PER
Houston: 14.9
Majerle: 13.8 (though would be 14.2 if he'd hung it up at the 12-year mark like Houston)

Career WS/48
Majerle: .125
Houston: .094

I think it's hard to say if Houston has much of a longevity edge here. Yeah, Majerle only has about 6 prime seasons (vs. 9 for Houston), but he's got a bunch more role player years (most of which were OK).
And we otherwise have some of the same arguments as with Iggy: Houston's clearly the better scorer. But Maj is better at literally everything else--->better passer/playmaker by a pretty good margin, better defender, and once again a somewhat embarrassingly large margin as a rebounder.
Again, not that it couldn't be construed as close, but I def give the small edge to Majerle.

Neither Iggy or Majerle are guys that could be called "bad" on intangibles, either (likely the opposite).

But anyway, I'm derailing the thread....

ronnymac2 · Post #22 » by **ronnymac2** » Wed Feb 4, 2015 8:04 am

Vote: Elton Brand

Not 100% confident, but I'm willing to take the leap of faith that prime Brand would have been a consistent beast in the playoffs. Hell, I believed in Tiny Archibald, and there's more evidence for Brand presented here than there was for Tiny. He's got solid longevity. Played for post-Jordan Bulls and Clippers...bah gawd.

He's got the mid-range jumper, the offensive rebounding, solid passing, little post game, good free throw shooter...I think he'd be a really good number 2 next to an all-time great offensive wing. Portable offense. Plays very good defense, too.

Post #23 » by **Moonbeam** » Wed Feb 4, 2015 11:36 am

Yeah, I'm going to make a post about Neil Johnston. I'm not sure if he's my vote, but he deserves some consideration, I think. I know he's not likely to get support yet, and there are reasons for that. He only has 6 meaningful years, but statistically, they look amazing. Across 1953-1958, he amassed a whopping 87.9 WS (despite seasons only lasting 72 games) on .249 WS/48. In addition to pulling down 12.7 RPG and dishing 2.9 APG during these years, he averaged 22.3 PPG on ridiculous efficiency for the time (.536 TS). Check out his Score+ metrics for those seasons:

Code: Select all

Year  Score+  PosScore+  TeamScore+
1953  4.191     3.485      5.274
1954  4.702     2.539      5.033
1955  3.904     1.976      3.979
1956  4.620     3.148      3.424
1957  4.785     3.614      3.798
1958  3.129     2.271      3.280

To put those numbers in perspective, the top 5 Score+ seasons rank among the top 200 ever, with 3 among the top 100. In addition, those two first seasons rank among the top 15 ever for TeamScore+.

For his career, he ranks 2nd all-time in Score+ and Team Score+, and 25th in PosScore+.

It's very rare that someone's TeamScore+ will be higher than his Score+. It is testimony to how awful his teammates were offensively from 1953-55. Seriously, they accounted for a grand total of -7.986 OWS (that's right, almost NEGATIVE 8 OWS) in 1953, 0.326 OWS in 1954, and 4.456 OWS in 1955. There's a bit of evidence that perhaps Johnston's presence was associated with them underperforming by quite a lot in 1955, but not in other years (not sure if Arizin missing 2 years prior to 1955 throws off the expectations).

Looking at what happened to Philadelphia's offense before, during, and after Johnston's time there (he was a bit player in 1952 and 1959), it looks like Arizin's departure in 1953 saw their offense completely crumble. With only Johnston doing the heavy lifting, they improved to being merely "poor" in 1954 (though their eFG was right around average). Once Arizin came back in 1955, there was a strange year of seeming underperformance before the team really took off in 1956 (when they would win a title) and 1957. There's a sharp dip in 1958, and an utter collapse in 1959 that continued into 1960, when Johnston was no longer on the team but Arizin was still logging heavy minutes.

He made 4 All-NBA 1st teams and 1 All-NBA 2nd team during his career, so he was recognized as an elite player in his era. Only having a single MVP vote in 1958 makes it clear he wasn't viewed as a best player in the league candidate from 1956-58, and he finished well behind Arizin on that front. However, Arizin's already in.

Johnston does not have a long playoff career. The Warriors qualified in 1952 when he was a bench player, but his first real meaningful postseason was the title run in 1956. Across that postseason, his scoring dipped nearly points and his efficiency dropped from a TS of .555 to .485 in the postseason - still decent for the time but no longer spectacular. However, both his rebounding and his assists jumped by nearly 2 per game, up to 14.3 RPG and 5.1 (!) APG. Arizin was their best player, but Johnston seemed to have performed fairly well, if not up to his regular season standard. He had a very poor shooting 2 playoff games in 1957 but big rebounding and assist numbers, and a more limited role in 1958 (23.8 MPG but .188 OWS/48).

I don't know much about his defense, but he doesn't appear to have much of a reputation on that end.

Post #24 » by **trex_8063** » Wed Feb 4, 2015 4:11 pm

Need to get a vote in before the deadline and I may not get a chance later.

Other than SactoKingsFan, Chris Webber doesn't appear to have much support right now. Further, I'm souring somewhat on him, to where he's perhaps only my 3rd-favorite choice right now.

I think I'll swing back to Tony Parker, as he's probably my #1 choice here and he seems to be garnering a little buzz. He ranks #51 in my elaborate formula, #77 in the other. Further arguments in the spoiler below:

Spoiler:

Vote: Tony Parker.

Post #25 » by **Clyde Frazier** » Wed Feb 4, 2015 7:11 pm

Vote for #78 - Hal Greer

- 15 year career (all with same franchise)
- 7x all NBA 2nd team
- 1 top 10 MVP finish
- Sixers all time leader in games played, minutes played, FGM, total points

As stated earlier in the thread, I was looking at greer, cunningham and carmelo. Also compared them to brand and parker. I came away most impressed with greer’s overall body of work. He had marked consistency throughout his career, along with impressive durability and longevity for his time. He played in 79+ games in 10 of his 15 seasons, which spanned from 59-73. He scored on slightly above average efficiency relative to his era, putting up the following #s from 61-70:

22 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 4.4 APG, 45.4% FG, 80.3% FT (6 FTAs per game), 51% TS, .135 WS/48

He performed similarly in the playoffs, playing a major role in the 67 sixers championship run, commonly considered one of the best teams of all time:

27.7 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 5.3 APG, 42.9% FG, 79.7% FT (7.9 FTAs per game), 48.7% TS (league avg that yr 49.3%), .130 WS/48

"I knew Hal when I got there [as the Sixers' business manager] in '68. I was with him for one year," said Pat Williams, who was raised in Wilmington and later became the Sixers' general manager for 12 seasons. "Tough little bulldog. He was tough as nails. And quiet. Didn't talk much ... but would just go out and perform. Maybe the best middle distance jump shooter of all-time. You could argue that. That 15-, 16-, 17-foot range. It was like a layup to him.”

http://www.app.com/article/BZ/20121227/ ... /312270026

It’s been echoed elsewhere that he had the best mid range jumper of his generation. Also effective on both ends of the floor, and could post you up on either baseline. Stayed within the confines of his game, which ultimately led to team success. If he had range out to 17 feet, it stands to reason he would’ve been able to develop a 3 pointer in this era.

Some great videos on the 67 sixers from (I believe) our own Dipper 13:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Np29MW_XN8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4tbuMbhngis

Post #26 » by **Clyde Frazier** » Wed Feb 4, 2015 7:28 pm

Through post #25:

Shawn Marion - penbeast0

Elton Brand - Quotatious, Owly, ronnymac2

Tony Parker - trex_8063

Hal Greer - Clyde Frazier

Still seemingly undecided - Moonbeam and RayBan-Sematra

SinceGatlingWasARookie · Post #27 » by **SinceGatlingWasARookie** » Wed Feb 4, 2015 7:59 pm

Vote: Shawn Marion
Shawn Marion was the grit in a somewhat soft Suns team. I don't know if Marion inspired his teammates to play a little harder but I wouldn't be surprised if he did.

Some Stats like Brand a little more and some like Marion more. VORP ranks Marion as better. I suspect some stats like win shares of having some bias in favour of players on better teams. PER ranks player highly for shooting 3s efficiently and for players rebounding well and for filling up a stat sheet.

Real GMs 2011 list had Brand at 1986 and did not have Marion in the top 100. Slam's 2011 top 500 list had Brand at 177, Marion at 152, Buck Williams at 100, Webber at 80 and Walton at 74. I don't care much what Slam thinks and don't know how they made their list. Some other lists have Marion above Brand.

I am probably biased in favour Marion over Brand just because I have seen more of Marion. I just like what I saw when I watched Marion.

Post #28 » by **penbeast0** » Wed Feb 4, 2015 11:37 pm

Elton Brand v. Shawn Marion . . . feels like 2006 all over again

Post #29 » by **Quotatious** » Thu Feb 5, 2015 12:24 am

penbeast0 wrote:Elton Brand v. Shawn Marion . . . feels like 2006 all over again

If we're back to 2006, Brand clearly has the edge.

Seriously though, it's an interesting comparison. I'm on Brand's side because of his clearly superior peak, and long enough prime (8 years), but Marion is a great candidate at this point, as well (FWIW, he has better longevity, more years as a valuable role player, and he was more versatile).

SactoKingsFan · Post #30 » by **SactoKingsFan** » Thu Feb 5, 2015 12:58 am

This is a tough one. I have Marion and Brand in the same tier and can see solid cases for both. Although Brand peaked higher, I give the overall career edge to Marion since I prefer the total package he brings to the table. With Marion you get superior longevity, high quality role player seasons, very underrated/versatile defense, exceptional rebounding for SF and valuable non ball dominant offense.

Run-off vote: Shawn Marion

Post #31 » by **trex_8063** » Thu Feb 5, 2015 2:24 am

This is a close one for me. And a somewhat difficult comparison, given different roles and skill-sets that they bring. Box-score metrics favor Brand by a small amount; RAPM favors Marion by a small amount.
I think Brand peaked much higher (I really think an awful lot of '06 Brand, and believe it to be one of the most overlooked player peaks all-time). That being said, Brand doesn't really come all that close to his '06 performance in any other year, and has fewer meaningful role players years/games than Marion, with similar length primes.

I also think it's worth noting that Brand has very little playoff career to speak of (though he was pretty awesome in '06). For as good as his numbers look, he wasn't able---with any regularity---to lift otherwise poor teams up to mediocrity (which is sort of what you expect an all-star or borderline superstar to be capable of). In Chicago (admittedly his first two seasons), they actually rocked the 2nd-worst and then worst records in the league those years (17-65 and 15-67).
Then during his first FOUR seasons in LA they had the following records:
39-43
27-55
28-54
37-45

So at this point he's not only missed the playoffs for six straight years, but has not once succeeded in leading a team to even 40 wins (and has been one of the bottom five records in the league four out of six seasons).
So while his numbers look legitimately all-star for ALL of these seasons (even borderline superstar in some years), I can't help feeling that their was some degree of "empty stats" happening (and fwiw he does have a negative RAPM his first three seasons, and doesn't have a particularly impressive positive one until '05).
Now I'm not going to pretend he had strong supporting casts in ANY of those years. However, I think it's a little unacceptable that a 2nd-year Brand can't get a team (any team) to 16 wins; or that the supporting casts he led initially in LA can't manage 40 wins (or often even 30).

By contrast, I like Marion's ability to integrate into multiple different successful rosters. He was a significant factor on multiple teams that made deep playoff runs. I think his being off-ball allows for that more easily. And while obv he's not a great offensive player, I've always appreciated his natural tendency to play within his abilities on that end (generally not making major mistakes, nor in any way taking away from what his teammates can offer offensively).
And as stated previously, his rebounding is outstanding for a SF or SF/PF hybrid, and his defense highly versatile (and often underrated).

Overall, I just appreciate his career value a little bit more than Brand.

Run-off vote: Shawn Marion.

Post #32 » by **Clyde Frazier** » Thu Feb 5, 2015 6:19 am

Runoff vote - Marion

Right off the bat, marion has better longevity and durability than brand. They both came into the league in 99-00, but marion was playing 30+ MPG up until this season, whereas brand hadn't played 30+ MPG since 10-11. Marion has also played in 91.1% of possible games played, whereas brand has 3 seasons playing less than 70 games (not including lockout shortened 11-12), and 1 season where he only played 8 games.

Coincidentally, marion and brand faced each other in the 06 playoffs, both having monster series, win the suns coming out on top:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... ml#PHO-LAC

It's important to note that in no way was marion a product of nash. He had several productive seasons before nash came to PHX:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... m:per_game

http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... m:advanced

[Yes, he obviously played even better with nash]

I'm also not huge on "portability", but after floundering a bit in MIA / TOR, he really carved out a nice 2nd career as a role player on the mavs. That's always impressive, even more so when you consider his role in helping the mavs win the 2011 championship. It really is a joke that he's never made an all defensive team, and just makes you wonder what the voters have been watching the last several years.

I do give good players some benefit of the doubt when they don't have much playoff success, but it becomes too much of a "what if" with me when comparing brand to marion here. I also prefer marion's overall versatility as a player to brand.

ronnymac2 · Post #33 » by **ronnymac2** » Thu Feb 5, 2015 11:39 am

I voted for Brand, and I'm not changing that, but great arguments for Marion. His defensive rebounding and versatility at the SF position makes him a menace, and I think he's a solid offensive player to have even without an elite playmaker.

RayBan-Sematra · Post #34 » by **RayBan-Sematra** » Thu Feb 5, 2015 3:29 pm

Might not matter as this point but I am gonna vote for Brand.
VOTE : Brand

I think he had the better Prime and I think he was the more portable player of the two.

Owly · Post #35 » by **Owly** » Thu Feb 5, 2015 6:47 pm

I'll just come in in defense of Brand. I'll say this though, I never thought Marion would get in and it be with me not voting voting for him. But he's just last amongst a pack of guys I've had at the top of my list for more than 10 rounds (Nance, Brand, Marion). In any case ...

trex_8063 wrote:Now I'm going to pretend he had strong supporting casts in ANY of those years. However, I think it's a little unacceptable that a 2nd-year Brand can't get a team (any team) to 16 wins

I think you have to be ignoring the cast if you're putting 15 wins on Brand (the blame for, that is).

If you use EWA (and set replacement level at 11 PER, which roughly where it is on average though it varies by position), here's the credit for that team

Elton Brand 13.59024876
Brad Miller 3.852537313
Fred Hoiberg 4.807014925
Ron Mercer 4.792537313
Metta World Peace 3.056616915
Khalid El-Amin 0.55880597
Marcus Fizer 0
A.J. Guyton -0.219402985
Michael Ruffin -0.39358209
Corey Benjamin -0.93800995
Jamal Crawford -1.305970149
Bryce Drew -2.012686567
Jake Voskuhl -0.369950249
Dragan Tarlac -1.606567164
Steve Goodrich -0.456567164
Dalibor Bagaric -0.992189055
with a total of 22.36283582

Now obviously EWA comes out with too many wins (for all teams). But it has Brand contributing over half his teams net wins. And this isn't over a replacement level player (who might contribute some wins). There is a zero win contribution baseline (and with a tendency to overvalue all players, Bryce Drew still comes out as costing 2 wins, and in his case see also the following). And there's a bunch of teammates who weren't such great defenders, where PER is largely ignoring their D. And this is with a less than stellar coach.

Put simply, asked for their opinion on each of Brand's teammates and his coach, two basketball experts offered the following

Spoiler:

Whether or not it matters so much (what you add to a terrible team), I don't think it's "unacceptable" that Brand (in his 2nd year) played on an awful team, unless you think he was actually doing something wrong.

Post #36 » by **penbeast0** » Thu Feb 5, 2015 10:17 pm

Shawn Marion (5) - penbeast0, SinceGatlingWasARookie, SactoKingsFan, trex_8063, Clyde Frazier

Elton Brand (4) - Quotatious, Owly, ronnymac2, Ray-Ban Sematra