Peaks Project: #1

[yoyoboy]

I'm currently not on a computer, but I'll update this post with descriptions later.

Ballot 1: 2008-09 LeBron James

Ballot 2: 1990-91 Michael Jordan

Ballot 3: 1999-00 Shaquille O'Neal

HM: 1976-77 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, 1966-67 Wilt Chamberlain

[LoyalKing]

Should have taken 2012 Lebron here

Lebron falls short against MJ and Shaq in the Finals. People should really watch that series again to realize how much better Lebron was in 2012 compared to 2013, especially in the Finals.

I'll have to go with

1 - MJ
2 - Shaq
3 - Lebron

[RSCD3_]

I am really hoping to see this project focused on discussion rather than specific votes. Glad to see a couple people are posting without making a vote yet. I won't be at my computer until tomorrow, but for now I will cast a ballot and read the discussion and participate to see if my votes will change. That said:

1. 2000 Shaquille O'Neal
2. 1991 Michael Jordan (although I'd consider 92 as well, want to see some opinions on his D especially fplii and SSB who are high on this season)
3. 2013 LeBron James
4. 1967 Wilt
5. 1995 David Robinson

These are all the guys I'm presently considering for this spot.

EDIT: Should be clear Shaq is my runaway favorite for #1 right now. I feel fairly strongly about it.

So, we're finally underway...

It's between '91 Jordan and '09 LeBron for me. It's extremely close and I won't vote just yet. As a Jordan fan, I'm naturally skewed towards him, but I want to give James a fair shake. I'm also considering '88-'90 (especially '89 and '90) Jordan, but I'll probably end up going with '91, because that's when he had his best playoff run, and improved his off-ball game.

Like someone alluded to in another thread - we mostly agree that bigmen are naturally more valuable defensively than guards/fowards, because they control the paint and can take away some of the highest percentage shots - shots at rim or 5-10 feet away from the basket, but isn't it also like guards/forwards are naturally more valuable offensively? I mean - sure, bigmen take more high percentage shots because they play closer to the hoop, but on the other hand, they have to depend on guards/forwards to feed the ball to them. Personally, I believe that's the case, and because great offense beats great defense (because an offensive player takes an action according to his own will, while a defensive player can only react to the moves offensive player makes - the offensive player basically dictates how the game will be played).

Because of this theory, I think that Jordan and James are a little more valuable than O'Neal, Chamberlain, Olajuwon etc.

Oh, and one more thing - I can't really see peak Shaq over LeBron. We have a lot of numbers for both guys (not just boxscore, but also RAPM), and LeBron beats Shaq in vast majority of those stats. Same with MJ and Shaq (except we don't have RAPM for late 80s/early 90s MJ).

This is not to say that I think Shaq has "no case at all" - no, I believe he has a case, but right now, I don't feel like I could be convinced by anyone that Shaq > Jordan and LeBron.

Here's a kick starter to a discussion, Spaceman. Would like to know why you favor 2000 Shaq?







Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

[Quotatious]

Guys, I have a question - how do you feel about '00 Shaq vs '67 (or '64, but '67 seems to be the more popular choice) Wilt? I currently have Wilt ahead by a tiny margin, but I'm not sure about that. I can see a good case for Shaq based on his superior scoring ability and a little better playoff performance, but it's awfully close.

They will be my picks for #3 and 4 if MJ and LBJ get the first two spots, but I'll have to decide between Chamberlain and O'Neal.

[Hawk]

Guys, I have a question - how do you feel about '00 Shaq vs '67 (or '64, but '67 seems to be the more popular choice) Wilt? I currently have Wilt ahead by a tiny margin, but I'm not sure about that. I can see a good case for Shaq based on his superior scoring ability and a little better playoff performance, but it's awfully close.

They will be my picks for #3 and 4 if MJ and LBJ get the first two spots, but I'll have to decide between Chamberlain and O'Neal.

Who do you think was the better defender? Were both DPOY contenders? Shaq was, but I don't know about Wilt.

[eminence]

Guys, I have a question - how do you feel about '00 Shaq vs '67 (or '64, but '67 seems to be the more popular choice) Wilt? I currently have Wilt ahead by a tiny margin, but I'm not sure about that. I can see a good case for Shaq based on his superior scoring ability and a little better playoff performance, but it's awfully close.

They will be my picks for #3 and 4 if MJ and LBJ get the first two spots, but I'll have to decide between Chamberlain and O'Neal.

We think too much alike... I wasn't alive to watch Wilt so it's tough, but I have Shaq ahead by just a hair due to the higher volume scoring. I also would like to hear more from anyone on these two...

[Quotatious]

Who do you think was the better defender? Were both DPOY contenders? Shaq was, but I don't know about Wilt.

Shaq was for sure, as you said (he has a very strong case over Zo for 2000 DPOY), and the Sixers finished 3rd of 10 teams on defense in 1967, they had 93.9 DRtg, Russell's Celtics led the league with 91.0.

I would say this - it's hard to be a real DPOY contender if Bill Russell is in the league at the same time, if you know what I mean. But, without Russell, Wilt would have a good case (Thurmond was probably a little bit better than Wilt on D, though).

What's interesting is that Wilt and Shaq had the EXACT same regular season Defensive Win Shares in those seasons, both at 7.0. I think they are very comparable, though obviously I watched a lot of games of Shaq, and almost none of Wilt...

[70sFan]

Who do you think was the better defender? Were both DPOY contenders? Shaq was, but I don't know about Wilt.

Shaq was for sure, as you said (he has a very strong case over Zo for 2000 DPOY), and the Sixers finished 3rd of 10 teams on defense in 1967, they had 93.9 DRtg, Russell's Celtics led the league with 91.0.

I would say this - it's hard to be a real DPOY contender if Bill Russell is in the league at the same time, if you know what I mean. But, without Russell, Wilt would have a good case (Thurmond was probably a little bit better than Wilt on D, though).

What's interesting is that Wilt and Shaq had the EXACT same regular season Defensive Win Shares in those seasons, both at 7.0. I think they are very comparable, though obviously I watched a lot of games of Shaq, and almost none of Wilt...

Well, there is only one game (half to be fair) from 1967. On this game for me he looks better on d than Shaq inmost of games I've watched. But there is only one game, I know....

[The-Power]

It's a tough choice for me because unlike other people I don't consider Jordan to be the runaway favorite. He's an option, sure, but other players peaked not much below - if at all - him. I spend some time pondering in which players have a legitimate case and decided for me that I only feel comfortable putting peak-James ('09 or '13) and peak-Shaq ('00 to '02, but I'm comfortably going with '00) in the same ballpark as Jordan ('91 most likely).

Initially, I thought I'd side with Shaq but I somewhat moved away from the idea mainly for two reasons. First, albeit he was an unstoppable force on offense, the offense was very predictable. Now, this might not be an issue because Shaq couldn't be stopped regardless thus his individual offense wasn't hampered. But since he always established position in the post and demanded the ball, the Lakers' offense could become stagnant at times and a couple of players weren't involved on many possessions. This might have been negative in terms of team-offense. The question is: do we have evidence for this assumption? But first of all I want to make clear that we're talking about the highest levels here where minor aspects can swing an opinion and the ranking of a player – obviously Shaq led great team-offenses. But it was a notch below LeBron and Jordan at their best statistically. Unfortunately play-by-play data is only available since the 2000/2001 season and misses the season I consider to be Shaq's peak (but he was clearly on a roughly the same level the subsequent two years on offense which makes it less of a problem to simply guess) and Jordan's season. Play-by-play data is necessary to determine on-court ORTG. But let's work with what we got.

Shaq's on-court ORTG in '01 and '02 was 112.4 and 111.6 respectively. The league average ORTG in 2000 (104.1), 2001 (103.0) and 2002 (104.5) were lower than in 1991, 2009 and 2013 – the seasons I'll refer to in the following. We don't know the exact reason for it and the overall volatility (although one can identify some trends) makes it even more difficult to guess. Rules, refereeing, talent on offense and defense, tactics etc. all play a role in establishing an league-environment – some of it might influence Shaq's on-court ORTG negatively while others aspects don't. I can't come up with a definite answer but it's only fair to mention it. In '01 and '02 his on-court ORTG ended up being 9.4 and 7.1 above league-average. LeBron posted an on-court team ORTG of 115.6 (2009) and 116.5 (2013). Especially his number in 2009 is incredible considering his supporting cast that year. Mo Williams was pretty good during his tenure in Cleveland but there is a reason why he never approached that level before he got there and after he left (other than maybe in 2008). League-average leveled out at 108.3 (2009) and 105.9 (2013), which means LeBron's rating was +7.3 and +10.6 points higher. We don't have the data for Jordan available but the ORTG of the Bulls (114.6) was already significantly higher than the league-average (107.9, -6.7) and I believe it's fair to assume Jordan's on-court team ORTG had been even better. Of course team ORTG without further context only means so much but it might be a minor aspect in this case which moves the needle in a very comparison. By the way, Shaq's ORAPM seems to be very unsteady for different years and depending on the source (+6.21 RPI RAPM, 3.89 NPI RAPM for 2000 from one source, +5.8 NPI RAPM for 2001, +2.1 RAPM, 3.8 NPI RAPM for 2002 from another). Maybe it's the different prior, maybe some other noise, maybe real diverging impact. But there is nothing to be astounded by which is why one should consider his offensive impact to be pretty elite (but the same is true for LeBron and presumably Jordan).

But how about his defense? Maybe that's something what separates him from his competition. Big men tend to have bigger impact on defense, positively and negatively, than perimeter players. Recent video-studying, however, left me pretty unimpressed with his defense. He's clearly not elite at that end, not even during his peak-seasons in which his defense is lauded at times. I'm not saying he wasn't a positive factor out there but he didn't strike me as an elite defensive anchor. His effort was inconsistent, his perimeter defense limited for obvious reasons and his rotations not at the highest level. His post-defense was very good and his presence in the zone was felt by opponents, but all in all I didn't see something otherworldly. The on/off data available for two peak-seasons don't suggest tremendous impact. Strangely, the Lakers had an outlier season defensively in 1999/2000 with the best DRTG in the league (it was even below average the following season and mediocre the season before). The important question is: how much of it can be credited to Shaq? For starters, it shows that it is indeed possible to have an elite defense with Shaq as the Center. This is pretty important to know but it's not sufficient proof of his individual capabilities especially when it couldn't be reproduced - neither before nor after said season. Even though we look at this one season only (provided this is the consensus about his peak), this leaves some doubts about his impact during this particular season as well since big men don't usually anchor elite defenses only once. The DRAPM available shows positive but not elite impact (+1.27 NPI RAPM, +2.39 RPI RAPM) for what it's worth. This doesn't have to mean much but it actually points exactly towards what I expected, supports the notion of O'Neal being a good but not great defender. Jordan and LeBron both have seasons with elite wing-defense. Perimeter defenders usually have less impact with similar individual ability than big men but in this case the difference in their individual level might offset the difference in their overall impact (fwiw LeBron peaked higher than Shaq in DRAPM in '09 and was ranked lower in '13, but it doesn't necessarily mean it's real of course). Even if we value Shaq's impact higher it doesn't mean he automatically wins the comparison because the others might have had more offensive impact.

I asked myself what separates Shaq from Jordan and LeBron on offense, not stylistically obviously but rather what advantage he might have on that end, and the first thought I came up with was: reliability. It seemed logical to see him as more reliable because, actually, there is nothing more stable than Shaq's offense. You knew what was coming, but you couldn't stop him and basically every possession involved Shaq establishing position. If a player can do something possession for possession and still be successful with it, it must be considered extremely reliable. So I looked up in how many games he scored at an efficiency level diverging significantly from his TS% in either direction (arbitrarily defined as +/- 10%) and compared it to LeBron and Jordan, who I expected to have more games in either direction. But the result was: there was nothing significant to find which suggests more consistency of Shaq's scoring game making it more reliable. Shaq (79 games in 2000) had 10 over and 17 under, Jordan (82 games in 1991) had 12 over and 8 under, LeBron (76 games in 2013) had 15 over and 13 under. I also looked up in how many games they didn't score between 20 and 39 points. The results: Shaq 16 times (7 times less, 9 times more), LeBron 6 times (5 times less, 1 time more) and Jordan 15 times (4 times less, 11 times more). Again I couldn't find evidence to support my idea of more reliable or steady scoring.

This post probably looks like I'm focusing exclusively on the negatives and have some sort of agenda against Shaq. I want to make clear that this isn't the case. The reason why my post is written in this negative manner has to do with me trying to convince myself why my initial choice most likely won't be my choice any longer. So it's not to convince you but rather to convince me. And this also has nothing to do with Shaq's peak being not as impressive as it's usually seen as. It certainly is. But when we're looking at the best players in the history of the NBA it's obvious that little doubts can move the needle and little aspects solidify or sway ones ranking – or let's just say: nuances matter. Right now I tend to rank Shaq ('00) at #3 and LeBron and Jordan #1 and #2 (not entirely sure about the order yet and I'm also not quite sure yet which version of LeBron I'll take and maybe someone can make a compelling case for another version of Jordan; both had at least one other season on roughly the same level of their peak-year). I will vote later and hope to find the time to write another essay to explain my vote.

[trex_8063]

1. 91 Jordan
2. 13 James
3. 00 Shaq

Should have taken 2012 Lebron here

Lebron falls short against MJ and Shaq in the Finals. People should really watch that series again to realize how much better Lebron was in 2012 compared to 2013, especially in the Finals.

I'll have to go with

1 - MJ
2 - Shaq
3 - Lebron

You've not yet "signed up" or expressed desire to be in the voter pool for this project. If you want to participate, that's fine; please first go to the Interest and Metathinking thread for this project and at the very least read the OP, post #82, and post #89 to get the gist of how this will work.

And no ballots will be counted without some manner of reasoning and demonstrated willingness to contribute to the discussion.

[trex_8063]

Spoiler:

Well this can go 1 of 3 ways.

You can go with Jordan 91

you can do a fastball and say michael jordan

or you can swing a curveball by saying michael Jeffrey Jordan.


For Jordan, I believe its the fact that he could do so much that no one could see.

ill just add my arguement in another page here.
I believe that he does alot of things that no one sees, which is a testament to his bball iq, and his overall skillset.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8MP6839B78

ill just put in a few plays where I think jordan is underrated in bball iq

in 2:20, the timing of his jab step was superb. he pretty much time it exactly as his defender was coming off the screen, so he was rushing back to get to jordan, and was left off balance. the window to use this jab step to basically get him off-balance, in this situation, was literally less than half a second. the defender had to over commit to one side, and jordan simply bursted past him in the other side.
in around 2:30, he made a really subtle head fake. while this by itself is quite normal, though the way he did it was quick and pretty much perfect, the important thing to note is that there was a guard literally right next to him that had barely even started running to the corner, making it seem much more legitimate. he basically read what his teammate was going to do before his teammate himself knew it.

in 3:48 ish, there was a really subtle head fake. it was hard to see even when slowing down teh video to 0.25 speed, that got the defender leaning. not only that, but he did a push through crossover that really was just long enough to avoid the defenders hands, but short enough that jordan kept full control/full speed. considering that he scored over 1.9ppp in transition according to some studies, it seems like he would do this on a majority of his transition plays, its just so hard to see. Its more clearly seen int eh 4 minute mark, and its obvious that the defender expected him to go the other way, as he shifted his foot jsut enough so jordan could get past him.

in 4:50, its another show of how he times his jab steps. he basically timed it as his defender was still approaching him, and his left foot was in the air, which made him lean a little, once again.

in 6:45, this is a reason why I think he was much better in the early ninetys than post baseball. normally, even athletic players like westbrook and Wall start "preparing" their fastbreak shot around teh ft line. They only really prepare it furthur when they are literally completely open, to the point where a clear path foul is possible. With Jordan, he regularly, as long as he had a clear few steps to gather, prepared his transition buckets from the 3 point line, and simply used a mixture of his long arms and long strides to just simply find a perfect angle to jump between the gaps of the defense.

6:53 demonstrates his ability to basically understand the mindset of his defender. it seems just like a simple hesitation, and then a crossover. in my opinion, he did something brilliant. he basically played the whole game at full throttle, either making it a point to really get past the defender completely, with room to spare, or take a jab and swing the other way. What he did here was go at a medium pace. at this point, his defender had basically been manhandled, so he pretty much really overcommitted. had he done this earlier, i doubt this would have worked. his ability to change pace multiple times in one possession was frankly astounding. he basically kept a medium pace this time to pretty much displace his defender, and get to the basket at the same time. Something else, is that he used his patented tounge while going during the hesitation, basically making it seem like he would 100% go at that certain direction. something I find unique is how he kept his head low throughout. imo, other superstars usually keep their head a little bit higher during their hesitation moves, making it seem more obvious imo. (a general concept I learned is the lowest head always wins)

7:25 demonstrates his ingenuity. he uses a referee as a screen. he also gets into an argument with Danny Ainge, basically meaning he would have won if a fight started, and his reputation would have been bolstered.

at around 7:50, he made the most subtle move of the game. first of all, he timed this perfectly, just as his defender was lifting his foot that he wanted to "move away" Secondly, the speed at which he did this head fake was probably the fastest one so far. while he was bringing the ball down. he actually made it seem like he would bring it down to the right, and moved his head very slightly to the right, first, if one slows the footage down and watches frame by frame.



he was just flawless really.



Number 2 would be Shaq. 01
I recall 1 season, the 96-97 season, they were 9th in offfensive rating and 8th in defensive rating.
the next year, with a continuity rate of 80 ish, they were 2nd in off rtg and 1th in def rating.

consider that he wasnt at his peak (he would gain 50-60 ish more pounds)
and we have a winner.



I would guess that I would pick Lebron 09 next, though I rank him wierdly, anywhere from 3rd in peak to below kobe, though thats the fanboy in me most likely.
his box metric (a stat I dont find perfect, but nevertheless) is the highest of all time at his peak. I think that speaks for itself. also, his team won less than 20 games when he left.



Honorable mentions to

Russell (unparalleled defense impact... basically hakeem, taller, faster, with drugs and more athletic, smarter bball iq too, defensively of course. IMO, the myth that wilt would have won 11 championships with russells teams is severly flawed. Wilt couldnt really anchor a bad offensive team to be great, but he could improve a team of course. But the celtic's teams needed defense. I recall that offensively, even with all those hall of famers, they were actually as bad as wilt's teams, well, without wilt in some years.)

- also, did anyone notice the huge offensive rating average increase from the 60s to 70s? 98.1 was good for 4th in the 60s. in the 70s, all of a sudden that became 100.1, and in the very late 70s, 101.6 was good for 19th out of 22.

Wilt (team success is what barred him, but the year he went 17-65, he was on a 48 win team, that had a 76 continuity rate from those 2 years. was it a testament to him trying vs not trying? he had a heart problem that year, but technically, his raw stats were better, so it might be a testement to feeding him being an ineffecient offense. also, the offesne of the 76ers were actually unaffected by his departure, with them recieving archie clark, who scored 13 ppg in 26 minutes, darrell imhoff, who averaged 9 and 10 in 29 minutes, and Jerry Chambers, who averaged 2 seasons of serving hte country, the military, and their offensive rating stayed exactly the same, both in position and in actual rating, though their defense deccreased from 1st to 6th. I recall a book called Basketball on Paper, Rules and Tools for Perormance Analysis, touched on this. in his 8 assists years, when he left, the offensive rating stayed the same.
Something I would like to ask though, how many times has a team's defensive/offensive rating gone down/up because a player left?
I know Mutombo and Rodman had instances of this happening, though in their defense,
Wait, nevermind, I misread the rating, Mutombo with Atlanta was 102, out of atlanta was 111, so I failed on that lol. Rodman didnt improve his team in the last year with the spurs though) - mostly arguing against to justify why I didnt put him in the top 3. the fact that We have to do that cements him in a honerable mention position.
And the question remains... When was his peak? in terms of team impact (bear with me) it could actually be argued that it was his laker years.


Tim Duncan
(literally because I made a pun about someone dunking and his name was coincidently Timothy, so he was, Tim Duncin)
(in terms of Box plus, it was stated by bball reference that players that use communication, leadership, and positioning arent accurately placed and are actually worse than normal in terms of box plus.
but anyway. even in his prime, his leadership qualities might put him over the edge)
In terms of RAPM, I believe that has trouble tracking a few "constants" too. Im not quite sure how it works, but it takes plays from other players and plugs it in right? if thats what it does, then a few problems, in my opinion, are things like, mindset, etc. etc. Im probably wrong about this, but for example, if someone is forced to take 100 shots, in game, (obviously extreme) the curve of shots made will go down for some players more than other "stars"
though it is definately the most intuitive stat.
Also, I beieve that certain variables makes some claims of the stat kind of, well, not accurate.
obviously its one of if not the best stat available, but still.



Definately missed a few

Hello there. I'm not familiar with you as a poster, and I'm certain you'd not expressed interest in participating in "Interest/Metathinking" thread, which is stickied on the front page of the PC forum.

However, I'm willing to enter you into the voting pool immediately based on the content provided above. If you haven't already done so, please read the OP and posts #82 and #89 in the Interest/Metathinking thread.

btw---Since the discussion is perhaps the main point of the project, if you're convinced you've cast your ballots in error, you can change your picks anytime prior to the deadline (roughly Monday night). But if you do, please create a new post alerting me to any changes, as well as making the switch in your original post.

[PCProductions]

I'm really interested in 2000 Shaq's defense. This here to me is the kicker. If we can conclude that Shaq was DPOY material here on top of his legendary offensive production, then it feels necessary to vote for him as #1.

[ceiling raiser]

I am really hoping to see this project focused on discussion rather than specific votes. Glad to see a couple people are posting without making a vote yet. I won't be at my computer until tomorrow, but for now I will cast a ballot and read the discussion and participate to see if my votes will change. That said:

1. 2000 Shaquille O'Neal
2. 1991 Michael Jordan (although I'd consider 92 as well, want to see some opinions on his D especially fplii and SSB who are high on this season)
3. 2013 LeBron James
4. 1967 Wilt
5. 1995 David Robinson

These are all the guys I'm presently considering for this spot.

EDIT: Should be clear Shaq is my runaway favorite for #1 right now. I feel fairly strongly about it.

I'm out today today, but will be home late tonight/probably tomorrow. I have Zander Hollander's NBA annuals (75-98) and the Barry/Cohn Scouting Bibles, so maybe I can scan from the scouting reports for players mentioned if some players are requested.

For some of the top players, I have quotes from autobiographies (or oral histories) typed up/grabbed from Kindle. For 92 MJ, here's what I have from Lazenby's recent book (came out last year):

Spoiler:

91-92

151. One by one the icons who had stood so long in front of Jordan fell by the wayside. Isiah Thomas and his Pistons crumbled, then melted away like the Wicked Witch of the West. For Larry Bird, it was the indignity of age, the back troubles, the ball short at the rim, the dismissals in the early rounds of the playoffs. But the biggest icon fell on November 7, 1991, while Jordan was at practice. Lon Rosen, Magic Johnson’s agent , phoned Bulls PR man Tim Hallam that morning.

152. As for basketball, the Bulls opened the season 1–2, and it looked as though they might be in for another transition, marked by more internal struggles and frustration. No team had repeated as NBA champions since the days of Boston’s Bill Russell dynasty until Pat Riley drove his Lakers to a second straight title in 1988. But the pressure of that push had destroyed his relationships with his players. Riley was soon gone and Magic Johnson thoroughly depleted. Jackson was aware of the risks of pushing such an agenda. A host of side issues were already driving his desire to have his players explore meditation and the Zen mentality. For whatever reason , they soon showed extraordinary focus.

“The one great thing about this group of guys,” Jackson would say, looking back, “was that they never let the external stuff bother the team’s play on the floor.”

153. Krause set the roster with a November trade, sending disgruntled Dennis Hopson to Sacramento for reserve guard Bobby Hansen . After those two early losses, they quickly gained clarity and rode on the wings of a new, emerging force, Scottie Pippen. In 1992, Jordan was far and away the best player in the league, Jim Stack observed, “but Scottie had caught up to the point that their games were 1 and 1A.”

In looking back on the development four years later, Tex Winter pointed out that Pippen, like Magic Johnson, had grown into that special type of player who “made his teammates much better… I think more so than Michael. It’s my personal opinion that there are times— not always, certainly— but there’s times when Michael detracts from his teammates. You’re not gonna find that much in Pippen. He’s totally unselfish. Michael should be selfish because he’s such a great scorer. Michael is uninhibited, and Michael is gonna look to score most of the time when he’s in a position where he thinks he can, whereas Scottie on many occasions will pass up that opportunity just to get his teammates involved.”

Jordan obviously was basketball’s great force, but it was Pippen who learned to channel that force in ways that few other players could.

As he had displayed in the championship series, Pippen had developed into a defensive presence that, in turn, made the Bulls a great defensive team. There would be much focus on the triangle offense as the team got better and better at executing it that season, but their defense gave opponents reason for pause.

“Their defense is so terrific already,” plainspoken Utah coach Jerry Sloan said after studying the Bulls, “that when they decide to step it up a notch, they can annihilate you. If you panic in that situation, you’re in trouble, and most teams panic.”

154. Jordan also fouled out of a game that season. He would not foul out of another game for the rest of his years with the Bulls, despite being an aggressor in Jackson’s pressure defense. In 930 regular-season games in Chicago, he would foul out just ten times. He would foul out just three times in another 179 playoff games with the Bulls. Since the days of Wilt Chamberlain, the NBA had been a league that did not like to lose its stars to disqualification.

155. The Bulls closed out the schedule that spring with a blistering 19– 2 run to finish 67– 15, the franchise’s best record. “We just coasted the rest of that season through one winning streak after another,” Bulls trainer Chip Schaefer recalled. “The team was almost bored with success and could turn it on and off whenever they wanted to.”

With the structure of the triangle offense taking the ball out of his hands a bit more, Jordan’s average had dipped to 30.1 points per game, but it was still enough to claim his sixth straight scoring crown and to win his third league MVP award. He and Pippen were named to the All-Defense first team, and Pippen earned All-NBA second team honors.

“We really had an outrageous year,” Jackson said. “We won sixty-seven games, and basically I felt like I had to pull back on the reins, or they would have tried to win seventy or seventy-five.”

The postseason, however, brought a changed atmosphere, featuring a showdown with Pat Riley’s New York Knicks, a team that had reprised Detroit’s Bad Boys tactics. “We had injuries, and we had to face New York,” Jackson recalled . “And teams were coming at us with a lot of vim and vigor. We lost seven games in our championship run. It wasn’t as easy this second time. There had been a challenge to our character as a team.”

156. The trial by fire came early that year, in the second round of the Eastern playoffs. The Knicks muscled their way to a win in Game 1 in Chicago Stadium. B. J. Armstrong helped even the series at 1– 1 by hitting big shots in the fourth quarter of Game 2. In Game 3 in New York, Jordan finally broke free of the cloying defense for his first dunks of the series. Powered by Xavier McDaniel, New York fought back to even it with a win in Game 4. In critical Game 5, Jordan took control by going to the basket. The Knicks kept fouling him, and he kept making the free throws, 15 in all , to finish with 37 points as the Bulls won, 96 –88.

“Michael is Michael,” Riley said afterward. “His game is to take it to the basket and challenge the defense. When you play against a guy like him, he tells you how much he wants to win by how hard he takes the ball to the basket.”

157. The Blazers of 1992 featured Clyde Drexler, Danny Ainge, Cliff Robinson, Terry Porter, and Buck Williams. Fans savored the opportunity to see the match-up with Drexler, who had an athleticism that matched Jordan’s . Veteran observers sensed that Jordan, with his long memory , might try to make a statement as the series was set to open, but none of them could have imagined his outburst in Game 1 in Chicago Stadium. He scored an NBA Finals record 35 points in the first half, including a record 6 three-pointers, enough to bury the Blazers, 122– 89. He finished with 39 points after making 16 of 27 field goal attempts, including the 6 three-pointers, all highlighted by his trademark shrug.

“The only way you can stop Michael,” said Cliff Robinson, “is to take him off the court.”

“I was in a zone,” said Jordan, who had focused on extra hours of practice shooting long range before Game 1. “My threes felt like free throws. I didn’t know what I was doing, but they were going in.”

In Game 2, Drexler fouled out with about four minutes left. But the Blazers rallied with a 15– 5 run to tie the game, then managed to win, 115– 104, on the strength of Danny Ainge’s 9 points in overtime. The Blazers had their split with the series headed to Portland for three games. But the Bulls’ defense and a solid team effort— Pippen and Grant scored 18 each to go with Jordan’s 26 in Game 3— ended thoughts of an upset, although this time Jordan missed all four of his three-point attempts.

The Blazers struggled to stay close through most of Game 4, then moved in front with just over three minutes left and won it, 93– 88, on a final surge to even the series at 2– 2. Jordan had made just 11 of 26 field goal attempts in Game 4, and it was clear that the critical Game 5 would be a test of endurance, with both teams having played more than a hundred games on the season. Jordan came out aggressively, attacking the basket repeatedly, drawing fouls, and pushing the Bulls to an early lead. Chicago’s coaches had surprised Portland by spreading the floor with their offense , which allowed Jordan open shots off of numerous backdoor cuts. He made 16 of 19 free throws to finish with 46 points, enough to give the Bulls a huge 119–106 win and a 3– 2 lead. The Blazers had pulled close , but Jordan’s scoring kept them at bay over the final minutes. His clenched fist and defiant grimace afterward served as yet another reminder to Portland of what had been missed in the 1984 draft.

158. The Bulls fell into a deep hole in Game 6 back in Chicago, down 17 points late in the third quarter. Then Jackson pulled his regulars and played Bobby Hansen, B. J. Armstrong, Stacey King, and Scott Williams with Pippen. Hansen stole the ball and hit a shot, and the rally was on with Jordan on the bench leading the cheers.

I'm not sure why I saved each of those quotes, but maybe some of it will be useful.

Dipper shared this awhile back;

He even called himself a "utility" player than season.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qCJR0RiRadI&t=5m22s" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Daily Herald - January 24, 1992

Michael Jordan - He is still the best player in the NBA. But he has performed a new role this season, filling gaps whenever the club needed a spark, either offensively or defensively. He is still obsessed with winning the scoring title, which is unfortunate, but he is human. In terms of all-around play within a team concept, this has been his best half-season. Grade A+

I'm not sure how I feel about MJ's motor that season, but we got into his training with Grover in this thread. So if MJ's peak defensive year was 88, and he had no interest in weight training as of the end of that year, I wonder how much the extra weight wore on him. He put on 17ish lbs of muscle in the span of four years. I don't know how realistic it would be for him to maintain the same energy as he had when he was a thinner player.

[PCProductions]

Same goes for Lebron 2013 defense. This is his last year of front to back consistency on that end while he finally almost peaked offensively (2014 being his offensive peak). If Lebron is indeed a 7-7.5 on offense and his defense floats around 2.5-3, then you have a +10 player here which feels weird to not consider toe to toe with Jordan and Shaq. Hakeem I'm also interested in hearing about how great his offense was given that he wasn't the facilitator of Jordan/Lebron and even Shaq to an extent.

[PCProductions]

My main question about 1991 Jordan is mainly around how great the playoff competition was. You had a Pistons team whose wheels seemed to fall of and a clearly past their prime Lakers team in the Finals. I think this is important if we're placing a lot of importance on playoff runs.

[ceiling raiser]

BTW, for those who are interested, I had the link to these files sitting around, don't think I've posted it before.

Quarter-by-quarter individual (plus OT) scoring for 92-96 from Pollack's guides (earlier editions didn't have it). Regular season only, but might be useful for some:

http://www70.zippyshare.com/v/ujx7QNFA/file.html

Similar data for 97 on can be found on stats.nba.com (though I don't think it's sortable, have to go to individual player pages).

[theonlyclutch]

Playoff opponent DRTG

Jordan
Knicks - 107.3 DRTG
Sixers - 108.1 DRTG
Pistons - 104.6 DRTG
Lakers - 105.0 DRTG
Average - 106.3 DRTG

Lebron
Pistons - 108.0 DRTG
Hawks - 107.6 DRTG
Magic - 101.9 DRTG
Average - 105.8 DRTG

Shaq
Kings - 102.1 DRTG
Suns - 99.0 DRTG
Blazers - 100.8 DRTG
Pacers - 103.6 DRTG
Average - 101.4 DRTG

Shaq played much tougher defenses than Jordan and Lebron in the playoffs

[Dr Spaceman]

Spoiler:

I am really hoping to see this project focused on discussion rather than specific votes. Glad to see a couple people are posting without making a vote yet. I won't be at my computer until tomorrow, but for now I will cast a ballot and read the discussion and participate to see if my votes will change. That said:

1. 2000 Shaquille O'Neal
2. 1991 Michael Jordan (although I'd consider 92 as well, want to see some opinions on his D especially fplii and SSB who are high on this season)
3. 2013 LeBron James
4. 1967 Wilt
5. 1995 David Robinson

These are all the guys I'm presently considering for this spot.

EDIT: Should be clear Shaq is my runaway favorite for #1 right now. I feel fairly strongly about it.

So, we're finally underway...

It's between '91 Jordan and '09 LeBron for me. It's extremely close and I won't vote just yet. As a Jordan fan, I'm naturally skewed towards him, but I want to give James a fair shake. I'm also considering '88-'90 (especially '89 and '90) Jordan, but I'll probably end up going with '91, because that's when he had his best playoff run, and improved his off-ball game.

Like someone alluded to in another thread - we mostly agree that bigmen are naturally more valuable defensively than guards/fowards, because they control the paint and can take away some of the highest percentage shots - shots at rim or 5-10 feet away from the basket, but isn't it also like guards/forwards are naturally more valuable offensively? I mean - sure, bigmen take more high percentage shots because they play closer to the hoop, but on the other hand, they have to depend on guards/forwards to feed the ball to them. Personally, I believe that's the case, and because great offense beats great defense (because an offensive player takes an action according to his own will, while a defensive player can only react to the moves offensive player makes - the offensive player basically dictates how the game will be played).

Because of this theory, I think that Jordan and James are a little more valuable than O'Neal, Chamberlain, Olajuwon etc.

Oh, and one more thing - I can't really see peak Shaq over LeBron. We have a lot of numbers for both guys (not just boxscore, but also RAPM), and LeBron beats Shaq in vast majority of those stats. Same with MJ and Shaq (except we don't have RAPM for late 80s/early 90s MJ).

This is not to say that I think Shaq has "no case at all" - no, I believe he has a case, but right now, I don't feel like I could be convinced by anyone that Shaq > Jordan and LeBron.

Here's a kick starter to a discussion, Spaceman. Would like to know why you favor 2000 Shaq?







Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

So first to note I see a lot of people going 1. Jordan 2. Shaq 3. LBJ, which leaves me a little confused as to how exactly you developed enough nuance to weigh things like that easily.

Okay, I'm going to handle Jordan/LBJ as a tandem, since basically we're arguing the best 2-way wing peaks against the most dominant offensive big ever. 

So the argument for the wings is generally: influence. There's no denying a perimeter guy can bring the ball up the floor, it's less costly to get them their shots, and they have a more versatile way to score.

Here's my thing: when you're as unstoppable as Shaq, why does that matter? First, is Shaq truly that dominant? Yes, IMO. Take those at rim numbers, and consider that a lot of Shaq's attempts there were actually off of post ups. If Shaq got a deal seal anywhere without 6 feet or so, that's almost literally a 100% efficacy play. Shaq out of isolation was as dominant as lots of players are in transition, and certainly far more effective than any other isolation scorer has ever been. If we're talking return on investment, there is nothing better than peak Shaq. 

So generally I don't think people disagree with the premise above, right? So if you accept that, how much of a leap is it to say...

A player who is that damn dangerous just needs to be defended differently. Keeping him away from the rim becomes the defenses only lifeline. The difference here is that you can't freaking stop Shaq from getting there. You have to hit him, send doubles, drop your guards, and generally compromise your entire strategy. Because when Shaq gets a deep seal, it's over completely. Like, there is no more sure thing in NBA history. 

So yeah, defenses have to be keyed in to his every move. And unlike LeHron or Jordan, who like to dribble around the top of the key, Shaq is doing this just by being present. A perimeter creator like Kobe can do his thing unimpeded while the defense is already so compromised by he insane gravity Shaq creates. 

Seriously, no player has drawn more doubles, caused more fouls (and,like, fouled out entire front lines, an underrated effect). He was an excellent passer too. 

But it mainly comes down to this: there is always something in the back of your mind with Shaq. You can't let up for a freaking second because it's more costly to let him free than any other player ever. The guy exerts so much influence off ball that the traditional downsides of a post player just don't apply. 

Also: LBJ and Jordan were great perimeter defenders. And when they turned it up trapping and stealing, they were unstoppable. But in terms of per-possession Impact over the long run, can you really argue either of them over peak Shaq defensively?

[Samurai]

I have a different take on peaks and I fully realize as such that it will likely be heavily criticized. I am not a stat expert; I fully admit that. As such, I don't understand the full relevance of trying to compare stats of players who played in different eras, with in some cases, different rules, different conditions, different coaching philosophies, and different competition levels. I don't know how to account for all of these differences. And I am not knowledgeable enough to say that I can fully accept that just normalizing stats to a per 100 possessions basis accurately accounts for the difference in pace and just automatically assumes that coaching philosophies and other variables would stay the same if the number of possessions in a game were different. But I do think we can gain some understanding of how much a player dominated against his peers, when they all played under the same conditions - good or bad.

Looking at some of the common choices in chronological order, 67 Wilt had a PER that was 3.9% higher than his runner up and his WS was 25.8% higher than the runner up. 71 Kareem had a PER that was 23.4% higher and his WS was 42.9% higher than the runner up. For 89 Jordan, his advantage is 15.1% in PER and 23% in WS. For 00 Shaq, he was 12.9% higher in PER and 21.6% higher in WS. I know that many consider 91 to be MJ's peak, but since his level of dominance in PER (9.3%) and WS (19.4%) was less than 89, I just selected 89 even though he didn't win a ring. If you want to use 91, you have the stats above (Barkley was his 91 runnerup in PER and Robinson in WS).

So compared to his peers, 71 Kareem dominated his peers to a higher degree than the other choices listed. His dominance was even higher in 72 (29.4% higher in PER and a whopping 60.8% higher in WS) but he didn't win a ring in 72 and I recognize there are many that cannot fathom a peak as being GOAT caliber without a ring. Granted, I understand that some will argue that you can dominate over your runner up easier if your runner up is less competitive, and you can argue that the runner-up in 71 (West and Lanier in PER and Wilt in WS) are much inferior than say a Karl Malone (for 00) or Barkley (for 89) or Oscar (for 67). That is a valid criticism and confirms that no single methodology has zero flaws. I have always had a high regard for West and Wilt, but I know others may not. And for those assuming Mikan should be in the conversation for how he did against his peers, his highest level of dominance was a 30% advantage over Alex Groza in WS in 51 (can't find any PER stat for that year). so even 51 Mikan's advantage was still smaller than 71 or 72 Kareem, plus you could argue that West and Wilt were more competitive players than Groza.

If you have a different method for valuing peaks, you will certainly get a different result; I have no problem with that. But how they did against their peers, all playing under the same rules and conditions, is how I view this question. I don't know how relevant it is to compare someone's PER, WS or some other stat in 2014 and compare it to another player's PER, WS or whatever stat in 1960 and draw any conclusions. I do think it is more relevant to compare that 2014 PER or WS to other 2014 PER's or WS's than it is to say a stat for 2014 was X and in 1960 it was Y, so the player that played in year Z was better.

[GoldenFrieza21]

I am not a voter.

I am posting as a part of the discussion in the hopes of being added to the voting. I believe no. 1 has to be 1967 Wilt Chamberlain. He anchored possibly the greatest single season team in history and led the first truly elite offense in NBA history, all while averaging 24/24/8.

Sets a FG% record, becomes the first real point-center, is the keynote of Hannum's percusor to the triangle offense, and leads the Sixers to a record 68-13. I don't know how much I need to say about this year, but I'll let you guys take a look at his game-log from the Playoffs:

1967 EDSF vs. Royals

G1 - 41 points, 23 rebounds, 5 assists, 63% FG
G2 - 37 points, 27 rebounds, 11 assists, 67% FG
G3 - 16 points, 30 rebounds, 19 assists, 62% FG
G4 - 18 points, 27 rebounds, 9 assists, 50% FG

Series Average: 28.0 ppg, 26.8 rpg, 11 apg, 61% FG
Oscar Robertson: 24.8 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 11.3 apg, 51.6% FG

He had as many assists as Oscar and killed him everywhere else!

1967 EDF vs. Celtics

G1 - 24 points, 32 rebounds, 12 assists, 12 blocks, 69% FG
G2 - 15 points, 29 rebounds, 5 assists, 5 blocks, 45% FG
G3 - 20 points, 41 rebounds, 9 assists, 5 blocks, 57% FG
G4 - 20 points, 22 rebounds, 10 assists, at least 3 blocks, 44% FG
G5 - 29 points, 36 rebounds, 13 assists, 7 blocks, 63% FG

Series Average: 21.6 ppg, 32.0 rpg, 10.0 apg, 6+ bpg, 56% FG
Bill Russell: 11.4 ppg, 23.4 rpg, 6.0 apg, 36% FG

1967 NBA Finals vs. Warriors

G1 - 16 points, 33 rebounds, 10 assists, 75% FG (including a game-saving block on Nate)
G2 - 10 points, 38 rebounds (26 in 1st half), 10 assists, 10 blocks, 40% FG
G3 - 26 points, 26 rebounds, 5 assists, 52% FG
G4 - 10 points, 27 rebounds, 8 assists, 11 blocks, 50% FG
G5 - 20 points, 24 rebounds, 4 assists, 60% FG
G6 - 24 points, 23 rebounds, 4 assists, 62% FG

Series Average: 17.6 ppg, 28.5 rpg, 6.8 apg, 56% FG
Nate Thurmond: 14.1 ppg, 26.6 rpg, 3.3 apg, 34% FG

That year, Wilt was fifth in scoring, first in rebounds, third in assists, and first in FG%. He was probably first or second in blocks too. How many players can achieve that level of statistical domination on an ELITE team?

He would get the rebound, either throw an outlet or let Greer bring it up before he got the entry pass at the high post again. Facing the basket, he then hit cutters, used a handoff to a guard to set a screen or either posted up to devastating effect (68% from the field!!!). Wilt was ungodly that year, there has never been anyone as good at basketball as Wilt was in 1967.

If I had a vote, it would be:

1. Wilt 1967
2. Jordan 1991
3. Shaq 2000

Very close between Jordan and Shaq. I value versatility, and Jordan can be used in a couple more ways than Shaq. In 1991 in particular if you watch the Finals, not only was he scoring like a maniac, he was also slicing up the Lakers with his off-ball movement. This proved to be a major decoy and allowed Pippen and Grant to have several huge games, including Pip's 32/13/7/5 in the closeout. Shaq is basically devastatingly effective as an offensive hub in the low post, and you'd wonder why anyone would want to use him in any other way, but at this highest of levels you're basically splitting hairs and anything that is an advantage has to be accounted for.