Peaks Project #27

[theonlyclutch]

For those voting Malone (esp. early 90s versions):
1. How much does having John Stockton factor in? Much of Malone's argument lies in his combination of volume & efficiency (esp in RS), but we've seen how this can be misleading when it comes to measuring the offensive prowess of Big Men (Amare w/ Nash being a more extreme example), given Malone's rather high reliance on "easy" buckets from PnR instead of isos + post-ups, a great PnR PG like Stockton should logically help quite a bit in this regard, no?
2. How much does Malone's elite man D mean in the big picture of team defense? I recall seeing RAPM stats for late 90s Malone, and they paint him as at the range of neutral, this is supported by on-off numbers of (admittedly old Malone) from 01-03 that has the Jazz being significantly on D without him, does his reputation has an elite post Defender really matter in the big picture?

Would anyone like to take a shot at these questions?

There's a good amount of evidence that John Stockton has equivalent impact to the Jazz teams as Karl Malone (97-03 +/-, RAPM...etc), there's also some evidence that indicates Malone's efficacy decreases clearly without Stockton playing, wouldn't it be a reasonable hypothesis to suggest that Karl Malone's boxscore numbers (esp. in RS) somewhat overrate his impact?

[bballexpert]

For those voting Malone (esp. early 90s versions):
1. How much does having John Stockton factor in? Much of Malone's argument lies in his combination of volume & efficiency (esp in RS), but we've seen how this can be misleading when it comes to measuring the offensive prowess of Big Men (Amare w/ Nash being a more extreme example), given Malone's rather high reliance on "easy" buckets from PnR instead of isos + post-ups, a great PnR PG like Stockton should logically help quite a bit in this regard, no?
2. How much does Malone's elite man D mean in the big picture of team defense? I recall seeing RAPM stats for late 90s Malone, and they paint him as at the range of neutral, this is supported by on-off numbers of (admittedly old Malone) from 01-03 that has the Jazz being significantly on D without him, does his reputation has an elite post Defender really matter in the big picture?

Would anyone like to take a shot at these questions?

There's a good amount of evidence that John Stockton has equivalent impact to the Jazz teams as Karl Malone (97-03 +/-, RAPM...etc), there's also some evidence that indicates Malone's efficacy decreases clearly without Stockton playing, wouldn't it be a reasonable hypothesis to suggest that Karl Malone's boxscore numbers (esp. in RS) somewhat overrate his impact?

Any Malone fan will say Stockton was the on who numbers went up and Malone had no help or weak teams most of the time. I would say that is wrong and Stockton was a huge part of Malone keeping his scoring up i mean Dirk, Duncan and Kg have a pg that long who was that good of passer all there numbers go up Duncan and Kg pgs were kinda **** most of there careers.

[trex_8063]

For those voting Malone (esp. early 90s versions):
1. How much does having John Stockton factor in? Much of Malone's argument lies in his combination of volume & efficiency (esp in RS), but we've seen how this can be misleading when it comes to measuring the offensive prowess of Big Men (Amare w/ Nash being a more extreme example), given Malone's rather high reliance on "easy" buckets from PnR instead of isos + post-ups, a great PnR PG like Stockton should logically help quite a bit in this regard, no?
2. How much does Malone's elite man D mean in the big picture of team defense? I recall seeing RAPM stats for late 90s Malone, and they paint him as at the range of neutral, this is supported by on-off numbers of (admittedly old Malone) from 01-03 that has the Jazz being significantly on D without him, does his reputation has an elite post Defender really matter in the big picture?

Would anyone like to take a shot at these questions?

There's a good amount of evidence that John Stockton has equivalent impact to the Jazz teams as Karl Malone (97-03 +/-, RAPM...etc), there's also some evidence that indicates Malone's efficacy decreases clearly without Stockton playing, wouldn't it be a reasonable hypothesis to suggest that Karl Malone's boxscore numbers (esp. in RS) somewhat overrate his impact?

It's not an entirely unreasonable suggestion. fwiw, if using the regressions that colts18 ran for '94, '95, and' 96 (NPI, rs only, used PER and WS/48 as variables in the equation, too fwiw), we then also have some RAPM data for those years. Here's how Stockton/Malone shape out '94 thru '01 (going out to the end of Malone's prime; NOTE: Stockton playing reduced minutes from '98 on; using PI where available because I feel it's less spurious).....

'94: Malone +5.37 (3rd in league), Stockton +3.28 (14th in league)
'95: Malone +4.93 (3rd), Stockton +4.04 (7th)
'96: Malone +4.89 (5th), Stockton +4.64 (6th)
'97 (NPI): Malone +4.42 (14th), Stockton +3.88 (19th)
'98: Stockton +5.32 (7th), Malone +5.31 (8th)
'99: Stockton +5.14 (11th), Malone +4.58 (16th)
'00: Stockton +6.18 (tied for 7th), Malone +4.12 (19th)
'01 (NPI): Stockton +5.4 (3rd), Malone +2.1 (36th)

So it's entirely possible Stockton was [more or less] every bit as impactful for those Utah teams as Malone. I'll once again ask the question: does impact = player quality? Answer: no, it does not. Utilization and fit play into this, too.

Utilization question: is Malone really talented enough of a pure scorer to be put in the position of "hey Karl, we want you to come up with 30 points every night, OK?". Answer: not really (i.e. he's maybe not being utilized in the most ideal fashion).


Also, this relationship works two ways (though Malone's critics like to make it out like that isn't the case). But suppose Stockton---instead of Malone to work with---never gets a big who can effectively work the pnr? Suppose he's got someone like Tristan Thompson alongside Mark Eaton in the frontcourt......how do you suppose that affects his boxscore metrics?

I also want to point out that while Stockton could be GOAT at working the pnr/pnp (Nash is really the only other contender), it's not as though he's the ONLY guy capable of doing so, or the ONLY PG capable of setting up teammates. So placing Malone in a situation sans-Stockton doesn't necessarily mean that his only scoring opportunities come in isolation.


At any rate, if you DO think the boxscore lies, and Stockton deserves the lion's share of the credit for what the duo did......then Stockton should be one of your ballots. I mean look at what this duo was combining for year after year when both in their primes:

'89: 46.2 ppg, 13.7 rpg, 16.3 apg, 5.0 spg, 1.1 bpg, combined 47.3 PER, .469 WS/48, +10.9 BPM
'90: 48.2 ppg, 13.7 rpg, 17.3 apg, 4.2 spg, 0.8 bpg, 51.1 PER, .483 WS/48, +10.8 BPM
'91: 46.2 ppg, 14.7 rpg, 17.5 apg, 4.0 spg, 1.2 bpg, 48.2 PER, .442 WS/48, +10.2 BPM
'92: 43.8 ppg, 14.5 rpg, 16.7 apg, 4.3 spg, 0.9 bpg, 48.2 PER, .452 WS/48, +10.4 BPM
'93: 42.1 ppg, 14.1 rpg, 15.8 apg, 3.9 spg, 1.3 bpg, 47.5 PER, .415 WS/48, +10.9 BPM
'94: 40.3 ppg, 14.6 rpg, 16.6 apg, 3.9 spg, 1.8 bpg, 45.4 PER, .407 WS/48, +10.7 BPM
'95: 41.4 ppg, 13.7 rpg, 15.8 apg, 4.0 spg, 1.3 bpg, 48.4 PER, .445 WS/48, +11.3 BPM
'96: 40.4 ppg, 12.6 rpg, 15.4 apg, 3.4 spg, 0.9 bpg, 47.9 PER, .447 WS/48, +11.0 BPM
'97: 41.8 ppg, 12.7 rpg, 15.0 apg, 3.4 spg, 0.8 bpg, 51.0 PER, .494 WS/48, +12.4 BPM

50% of that any given year is approx 22 pts/7 reb/8 ast/2 stl/0.5 blk per game, with ~24 PER, .225 WS/48, +5.5 BPM in ~37 mpg while missing basically no games (combined with pretty consistently elite-level impact indicators). If you believe either one of them is on the top-side of that: that's a valid candidate right now.

[trex_8063]

Thru post #23:

Karl Malone - 19
Steve Nash - 8.5
Dwight Howard - 6.5
Walt Frazier - 6
Anthony Davis - 4
Penny Hardaway - 4
Elgin Baylor - 3
James Harden - 2.5
Bob McAdoo - 2
Alonzo Mourning - 1.5
Willis Reed - 1
Artis Gilmore - 1
Baron Davis - 1


Calling it for Malone. Will have #28 up shortly (and hopefully it will get stickied, too).
Anyone who didn't cast a ballot for Mailman, please post in secondary thread which year you think was his peak.

[trex_8063]

For those voting Malone (esp. early 90s versions):
1. How much does having John Stockton factor in? Much of Malone's argument lies in his combination of volume & efficiency (esp in RS), but we've seen how this can be misleading when it comes to measuring the offensive prowess of Big Men (Amare w/ Nash being a more extreme example), given Malone's rather high reliance on "easy" buckets from PnR instead of isos + post-ups, a great PnR PG like Stockton should logically help quite a bit in this regard, no?
2. How much does Malone's elite man D mean in the big picture of team defense? I recall seeing RAPM stats for late 90s Malone, and they paint him as at the range of neutral, this is supported by on-off numbers of (admittedly old Malone) from 01-03 that has the Jazz being significantly on D without him, does his reputation has an elite post Defender really matter in the big picture?

Would anyone like to take a shot at these questions?

There's a good amount of evidence that John Stockton has equivalent impact to the Jazz teams as Karl Malone (97-03 +/-, RAPM...etc), there's also some evidence that indicates Malone's efficacy decreases clearly without Stockton playing, wouldn't it be a reasonable hypothesis to suggest that Karl Malone's boxscore numbers (esp. in RS) somewhat overrate his impact?

Oh, I also meant to address the questions regarding his defense.
I wish we had the PI DRAPM data for the majority of his prime to get a better idea about that. I just wanted to point out that the capabilities were certainly there.

Look at what he did in '04, when finally relieved of the burden of offensive primacy: he goes from being the #1 option to being the #4 option on offense, otherwise asked to focus on defense and rebounding. And what was the result? He has his best rebounding season since '00, excellent defensive on/off splits (in both rs and playoffs).
I tend to not trust his PI DRAPM for this season for reasons alluded to: post-2000 I think his defense was beginning to suffer as he continued to shoulder huge amounts of offense into his late 30's and just not longer had the motor to maintain intensity on the other end; as such, those years are dragging his PI DRAPM numbers for '04 down. I think NPI is probably more reliable for DRAPM this year (was +0.3 in NPI DRAPM).
And there's several videos of Lakers '04 playoff games on YT. If you watch those you see a guy who's not just elite at man D, he's fantastic against the pnr, too.

[theonlyclutch]

For those voting Malone (esp. early 90s versions):
1. How much does having John Stockton factor in? Much of Malone's argument lies in his combination of volume & efficiency (esp in RS), but we've seen how this can be misleading when it comes to measuring the offensive prowess of Big Men (Amare w/ Nash being a more extreme example), given Malone's rather high reliance on "easy" buckets from PnR instead of isos + post-ups, a great PnR PG like Stockton should logically help quite a bit in this regard, no?
2. How much does Malone's elite man D mean in the big picture of team defense? I recall seeing RAPM stats for late 90s Malone, and they paint him as at the range of neutral, this is supported by on-off numbers of (admittedly old Malone) from 01-03 that has the Jazz being significantly on D without him, does his reputation has an elite post Defender really matter in the big picture?

Would anyone like to take a shot at these questions?

There's a good amount of evidence that John Stockton has equivalent impact to the Jazz teams as Karl Malone (97-03 +/-, RAPM...etc), there's also some evidence that indicates Malone's efficacy decreases clearly without Stockton playing, wouldn't it be a reasonable hypothesis to suggest that Karl Malone's boxscore numbers (esp. in RS) somewhat overrate his impact?

Oh, I also meant to address the questions regarding his defense.
I wish we had the PI DRAPM data for the majority of his prime to get a better idea about that. I just wanted to point out that the capabilities were certainly there.

Look at what he did in '04, when finally relieved of the burden of offensive primacy: he goes from being the #1 option to being the #4 option on offense, otherwise asked to focus on defense and rebounding. And what was the result? He has his best rebounding season since '00, excellent defensive on/off splits (in both rs and playoffs).
I tend to not trust his PI DRAPM for this season for reasons alluded to: post-2000 I think his defense was beginning to suffer as he continued to shoulder huge amounts of offense into his late 30's and just not longer had the motor to maintain intensity on the other end; as such, those years are dragging his PI DRAPM numbers for '04 down. I think NPI is probably more reliable for DRAPM this year (was +0.3 in NPI DRAPM).
And there's several videos of Lakers '04 playoff games on YT. If you watch those you see a guy who's not just elite at man D, he's fantastic against the pnr, too.

...But his DRAPM numbers were pretty much right on neutral in '98, which is still considered as "prime" Malone, and this is reciprocated in '99 and '00, I don't particularly see the relevance of Malone in a very different role's defensive prowess, as the capability of playing good defense for possessions at a time doesn't necessarily point to playing good defense every possession (see Kobe Bryant)...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h20JYcZJu2tGNIyOwVbNfez0-zXXy5ItLyXC4qTE5D8/edit#gid=5

[trex_8063]

...But his DRAPM numbers were pretty much right on neutral in '98, which is still considered as "prime" Malone, and this is reciprocated in '99 and '00, I don't particularly see the relevance of Malone in a very different role's defensive prowess, as the capability of playing good defense for possessions at a time doesn't necessarily point to playing good defense every possession (see Kobe Bryant)...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h20JYcZJu2tGNIyOwVbNfez0-zXXy5ItLyXC4qTE5D8/edit#gid=5

Well, perhaps I should have suggested he didn't have the motor for it (to be "switched on" on both ends of the court) post-'98. And '98 hovers just above neutral only thru PI; fwiw, NPI looks pretty good that year......

DRAPM by year:
'97: NPI +0.14
'98: PI +0.14, NPI +1.27
'99: PI -0.44, NPI -0.43
'00: PI -1.42, NPI -1.18

idk. Much as I hate to admit it, maybe bastillion had a good point regarding Malone's declining motor in the late 90's, because I do think that's the primary reason for defensive decline. His usage remains 30+% from '98-'01 ('99 and on he's 35+ years old), and I don't think he had enough in the tank to really give it 100% on both ends at that point. I further do believe that's why we see his defense and rebounding take an uptick in '04, when he's finally allowed a breather on offense (usage dropping to a career low----by far---of 19.7%, down from 27.8% the previous year), enabling him to re-assert himself on defense. Though I think bastillion jumped the gun on when it started to happen in earnest.....more like post '97 or post '98 imo, whereas he indicated decline beginning just after '95.

[bastillon]

...But his DRAPM numbers were pretty much right on neutral in '98, which is still considered as "prime" Malone, and this is reciprocated in '99 and '00, I don't particularly see the relevance of Malone in a very different role's defensive prowess, as the capability of playing good defense for possessions at a time doesn't necessarily point to playing good defense every possession (see Kobe Bryant)...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h20JYcZJu2tGNIyOwVbNfez0-zXXy5ItLyXC4qTE5D8/edit#gid=5

Well, perhaps I should have suggested he didn't have the motor for it (to be "switched on" on both ends of the court) post-'98. And '98 hovers just above neutral only thru PI; fwiw, NPI looks pretty good that year......

DRAPM by year:
'97: NPI +0.14
'98: PI +0.14, NPI +1.27
'99: PI -0.44, NPI -0.43
'00: PI -1.42, NPI -1.18

idk. Much as I hate to admit it, maybe bastillion had a good point regarding Malone's declining motor in the late 90's, because I do think that's the primary reason for defensive decline. His usage remains 30+% from '98-'01 ('99 and on he's 35+ years old), and I don't think he had enough in the tank to really give it 100% on both ends at that point. I further do believe that's why we see his defense and rebounding take an uptick in '04, when he's finally allowed a breather on offense (usage dropping to a career low----by far---of 19.7%, down from 27.8% the previous year), enabling him to re-assert himself on defense. Though I think bastillion jumped the gun on when it started to happen in earnest.....more like post '97 or post '98 imo, whereas he indicated decline beginning just after '95.

Indeed, I think the decline started after about '95, and maybe it wasn't as pronounced in the RS but if you look at the playoffs, there's a pretty big gap, especially considering that playoff Malone in the mid 90s was playing basically 46 mpg when he had to, that simply never happened in his mid 30s. The motor is incredibly important at this level.