1991-92 Michael Jordan Shot Chart

JordansBulls · Post #21 » by **JordansBulls** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 2:15 pm

Awesome stuff my man!!!

Djoker · Post #22 » by **Djoker** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 4:47 pm

Excellent work! I applaud you sir.

It's clear that MJ is a GOAT-level midrange shooter but I'm a bit disappointed with his finishing ability at the rim and his transition dominance. In both of those aspects, it seems that someone like Lebron James is clearly superior.

rich316 · Post #23 » by **rich316** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 5:06 pm

Djoker wrote:Excellent work! I applaud you sir.

It's clear that MJ is a GOAT-level midrange shooter but I'm a bit disappointed with his finishing ability at the rim and his transition dominance. In both of those aspects, it seems that someone like Lebron James is clearly superior.

I think it has been fairly clear for years now that Lebron is the GOAT transition player, without much room for debate. In terms of halfcourt finishing, I don't know that this particular sample gives a clear picture of MJ's peak at-rim dominance, and I don't think you can call Lebron "clearly superior" at the rim. MJ's clear advantage at the FT line over Lebron balances out any raw FG% edge for James, IMO. I believe the '91 version of this project showed MJ at well above 60% in the restricted area. Barkley, I could see that argument, but they are different players with different strengths. MJ's all-around scoring game was what made him unstoppable, not any one skillset. His mid-range game was what made him the arguable GOAT offensive player, because there wasn't really anything you could do about it.

On a side note, isn't it interesting how anything MJ does is still big news? Him making a statement about police violence is front-page news on ESPN.

Arman_tanzarian · Post #24 » by **Arman_tanzarian** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 5:07 pm

You are insane bro. Great work. This type of info goes along way for people like me who's obsessed with MJ but was too young at the time (92) to fully understand that MJ.

Shot Clock · Post #25 » by **Shot Clock** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 5:09 pm

Djoker wrote:Excellent work! I applaud you sir.

It's clear that MJ is a GOAT-level midrange shooter but I'm a bit disappointed with his finishing ability at the rim and his transition dominance. In both of those aspects, it seems that someone like Lebron James is clearly superior.

Hard to compare the two era's the league has really opened up that aspect of the game over the years. This period is even pre-no-charge circle so bigs could contest you literally at the rim and aren't scrambling to get out of the circle.

Djoker · Post #26 » by **Djoker** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 5:26 pm

rich316 wrote:
Djoker wrote:Excellent work! I applaud you sir.

It's clear that MJ is a GOAT-level midrange shooter but I'm a bit disappointed with his finishing ability at the rim and his transition dominance. In both of those aspects, it seems that someone like Lebron James is clearly superior.

I think it has been fairly clear for years now that Lebron is the GOAT transition player, without much room for debate. In terms of halfcourt finishing, I don't know that this particular sample gives a clear picture of MJ's peak at-rim dominance, and I don't think you can call Lebron "clearly superior" at the rim. MJ's clear advantage at the FT line over Lebron balances out any raw FG% edge for James, IMO. I believe the '91 version of this project showed MJ at well above 60% in the restricted area. Barkley, I could see that argument, but they are different players with different strengths. MJ's all-around scoring game was what made him unstoppable, not any one skillset. His mid-range game was what made him the arguable GOAT offensive player, because there wasn't really anything you could do about it.

On a side note, isn't it interesting how anything MJ does is still big news? Him making a statement about police violence is front-page news on ESPN.

65% at the rim that Jordan posted is a good number but Lebron's top seasons have been as high as 79.6% in 2014 and with few others in the mid and high 70's. Lebron is a GOAT level finisher comparable to big men like Shaq believe it or not. Barkley is indeed another guy with insane numbers. I remember seeing his shooting splits from PHILA's work and he shot like 80% at the rim.

MJ is still the GOAT scorer because of his midrange. It's not always possible to get a high efficiency shot at the rim but the 15 foot jumper is hard to stop and Jordan was really amazing.

Shot Clock wrote:
Djoker wrote:Excellent work! I applaud you sir.

It's clear that MJ is a GOAT-level midrange shooter but I'm a bit disappointed with his finishing ability at the rim and his transition dominance. In both of those aspects, it seems that someone like Lebron James is clearly superior.

Hard to compare the two era's the league has really opened up that aspect of the game over the years. This period is even pre-no-charge circle so bigs could contest you literally at the rim and aren't scrambling to get out of the circle.

Today's bigs are subject to the 3 second rule and that does open the paint. However, any advantages that Lebron has in this regard are IMO balanced by strict no-zone defensive rules of that era. The higher physicality also helped the defense in some ways but there were also way fewer guys drawing charges then. When Lebron steamrolls to the hoop, an offensive foul is very possible but in earlier eras this was rare.

Generally speaking, I think these differences are overblown. Basketball is basketball and greats adjust. Look at Kareem who dominated 20 years apart in two very different league.

BasketballFan7 · Post #27 » by **BasketballFan7** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 5:31 pm

Djoker wrote:
rich316 wrote:
Djoker wrote:Excellent work! I applaud you sir.

It's clear that MJ is a GOAT-level midrange shooter but I'm a bit disappointed with his finishing ability at the rim and his transition dominance. In both of those aspects, it seems that someone like Lebron James is clearly superior.

I think it has been fairly clear for years now that Lebron is the GOAT transition player, without much room for debate. In terms of halfcourt finishing, I don't know that this particular sample gives a clear picture of MJ's peak at-rim dominance, and I don't think you can call Lebron "clearly superior" at the rim. MJ's clear advantage at the FT line over Lebron balances out any raw FG% edge for James, IMO. I believe the '91 version of this project showed MJ at well above 60% in the restricted area. Barkley, I could see that argument, but they are different players with different strengths. MJ's all-around scoring game was what made him unstoppable, not any one skillset. His mid-range game was what made him the arguable GOAT offensive player, because there wasn't really anything you could do about it.

On a side note, isn't it interesting how anything MJ does is still big news? Him making a statement about police violence is front-page news on ESPN.

65% at the rim that Jordan posted is a good number but Lebron's top seasons have been as high as 79.6% in 2014 and with few others in the mid and high 70's. Lebron is a GOAT level finisher comparable to big men like Shaq believe it or not. Barkley is indeed another guy with insane numbers. I remember seeing his shooting splits from PHILA's work and he shot like 80% at the rim.

MJ is still the GOAT scorer because of his midrange. It's not always possible to get a high efficiency shot at the rim but the 15 foot jumper is hard to stop and Jordan was really amazing.

Shot Clock wrote:
Djoker wrote:Excellent work! I applaud you sir.

It's clear that MJ is a GOAT-level midrange shooter but I'm a bit disappointed with his finishing ability at the rim and his transition dominance. In both of those aspects, it seems that someone like Lebron James is clearly superior.

Hard to compare the two era's the league has really opened up that aspect of the game over the years. This period is even pre-no-charge circle so bigs could contest you literally at the rim and aren't scrambling to get out of the circle.

Today's bigs are subject to the 3 second rule and that does open the paint. However, any advantages that Lebron has in this regard are IMO balanced by strict no-zone defensive rules of that era. The higher physicality also helped the defense in some ways but there were also way fewer guys drawing charges then. When Lebron steamrolls to the hoop, an offensive foul is very possible but in earlier eras this was rare.

Generally speaking, I think these differences are overblown. Basketball is basketball and greats adjust. Look at Kareem who dominated 20 years apart in two very different league.

This is true, but only at the expense of bringing help over to stop the shot in close. This is truly what makes LeBron great offensively: not only being able to finish at the rim, but the ability to recognize the situation and make the play for a teammate when help does come.

Peak LeBron driving to the rim was essentially unstoppable, just in a manner that wasn´t exclusive to scoring.

Arman_tanzarian · Post #28 » by **Arman_tanzarian** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 5:44 pm

Dipper 13 wrote:
kabstah wrote:Surprisingly low %s in the playoffs for at the rim finishing and in transition. Especially in transition, actually.

Yes he missed a few in transition and around the rim in general. Most of those misses were either due to great rim protection or his tendency to take a ton of "risky" acrobatic shots.

fpliii wrote:Dipper - Thank you. Amazing stuff. Do you know which season Pollack was referring to with this quote

NBA.com: You were close to Wilt after he retired. How often would you talk to him?
Harvey Pollack: All the time. Wilt was big on stats. One time he called me up and said, 'You know, Harvey, Michael Jordan can't hit a shot beyond 15 feet?'
I said, 'How do you know that?'
He said to me, 'Don't you watch the games?'
I said, 'I don't watch stuff like that. How do you know?'
He said, 'I watch it.'
So, during the height of Michael's career, I got the play-by-play of the first 20 Bulls games and I checked the distance of every shot Jordan took during the season and sure enough, he was shooting under 40 percent from 15 feet back.
Then Wilt said, 'Jordan doesn't take any shots from seven feet in, all of those shots are drives to the basket. He doesn't take five or six footers. He goes right to the hoop.'
I tried 20 more games and ended up looking at the entire season and got the same results. Wilt's analysis held up.

Looks like it wasn't from this year for sure.

Probably early in his career. Maybe 1987?

Blackmill wrote:I would be surprised if that were true, given the games I've watched from Jordan's '92 playoffs, which honestly aren't that many. The frequency that he contests shots has been poor. Worse, in games 2 and 4 of the '92 finals, he loses Drexler several times while ballwatching or going for a steal. You can't give away three open layups per game and have a high defensive impact as a guard. I actually don't think Jordan had much of a positive defensive impact in the games I've seen. Of course, that can all change as I watch more games, or even as I go back to elucidate what I recorded. Capturing defensive impact is tricky since the result is muddled by variance and teammates. On the other hand, I think it's remarkable that you managed to record all this data, since I know from trying to do the same just how much time it takes. I think recording stats takes away a lot of the enjoyment in watching the games too. Makes it a bit of a grind.

Drexler did shoot good (20/45) against Jordan in the Finals sample. He was definitely caught sleeping a few times in various playoff & RS games. However this does not measure defensive impact, only man defense. I would loosely rely on it since I don't know how NBA.com kept track of their data. NBA.com's definition is "when the player is defending the shot." Whether that meant having a hand up and leaping to contest, or just being within a arms length (or even within a step) of the shooter, I am not sure.

One habit Jordan had on defense was to leak out for a potential fastbreak when closing out on a shooter.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7-XUqJUkHdk&t=26m7s

I noticed that a lot by MJ. I also noticed closing out seemed to not be anywhere near as efficient by defenders back then. Not only MJ, I've seen so many players pull that multiple times a game. In today's game you may get pulled if you build a habit of doing that too often. IIRC it happens today toy, just not as frequently.

Dipper 13 · Post #29 » by **Dipper 13** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 6:02 pm

Djoker wrote:Excellent work! I applaud you sir.

It's clear that MJ is a GOAT-level midrange shooter but I'm a bit disappointed with his finishing ability at the rim and his transition dominance. In both of those aspects, it seems that someone like Lebron James is clearly superior.

IMO the physical defense & poor spacing not only affected his interior shooting, but also his 10-16 Ft percentage. It is no coincidence his paint efficiency outside of the restricted area wasn't that great. That is where it was easiest for the defense to give help, opposing coaches didn't want him going baseline at all.

I think his transition game was much better in previous years, based on the 1990-92 sample. There might be some highlight bias, but his transition ability was over 90% as a finisher. But in looking at his halfcourt paint efficiency, this may be a where his creativity in manufacturing shot attempts becomes a disadvantage, compared to other players.

Shot attempts like this were routine for him:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UhHF6tNM4hI&t=1h14m43s

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8mUtNiW0IVQ&t=39s

Lebron

Peak LeBron was probably the best combo of size & athleticism, so that rim percentage is understandable. But looking up some stats, I was surprised to see 2014 Kevin Durant shooting 79.8% at the rim.

Now I am wondering what Pippen's finishing percentage was.

Shot Clock · Post #30 » by **Shot Clock** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 6:09 pm

Djoker wrote:
Shot Clock wrote:
Djoker wrote:Excellent work! I applaud you sir.

It's clear that MJ is a GOAT-level midrange shooter but I'm a bit disappointed with his finishing ability at the rim and his transition dominance. In both of those aspects, it seems that someone like Lebron James is clearly superior.

Hard to compare the two era's the league has really opened up that aspect of the game over the years. This period is even pre-no-charge circle so bigs could contest you literally at the rim and aren't scrambling to get out of the circle.

Today's bigs are subject to the 3 second rule and that does open the paint. However, any advantages that Lebron has in this regard are IMO balanced by strict no-zone defensive rules of that era. The higher physicality also helped the defense in some ways but there were also way fewer guys drawing charges then. When Lebron steamrolls to the hoop, an offensive foul is very possible but in earlier eras this was rare.

I don't see what you are saying at all, if Lebron stearolls to the rim the defender needs to run outside the circle to manage to draw a foul. If they don't they are likely going to be the ones called for a foul on contact. That circle was put in during the mid-90's to prevent guys from drawing fouls close to the hoop. Guys like Laimbeer were quite willing to sacrifice themselves to draw a foul so they added the rule. Now a player is either going to get called for the offensive foul way before he reaches the rim or likely go up uncontested. (increasing at the rim percentages)

I borrowed a link from above. Check out the offensive foul on Sparrow because there is not circle (around 1:13:55 mark)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UhHF6tNM4hI&t=1h14m43s
Gave up trying to get the link to work.

The illegal defense rules were not "strict no-zone defensive rules" there was a lot of room to play zones, in fact the rules defined the zones for the players. Todays rules still don't allow true zones they specifically avoided that with the 3 second rules. You saw a lot more guys challenging players right at the rim. The restricted area has intentionally been opened up and there's no way to dance around that.

Generally speaking, I think these differences are overblown. Basketball is basketball and greats adjust. Look at Kareem who dominated 20 years apart in two very different league.

I'm not sure why you bring up Kareem we are talking about rule changes that impacted a certain type of player. Players adjust, it doesn't mean that we ignore impacts that make a certain aspect harder or easier. We certainly don't ignore the 3 point line shortening and it had similar impacts on league efficiency. When the guy setting the rules says that:

Our objective was to allow for more offensive freedom by not allowing defenders to hand-, forearm- or body-check ball handlers. By doing so, we encouraged more dribble penetration. As players penetrated more, it produced higher quality shots for the ball handler as well as shots for teammates on passes back out to perimeter. When NBA players get higher quality shots -- having more time to shoot -- they tend to make more of them.

If anything these impacts are drastically downplayed constantly. There's just no way it's equal or more difficult to get to the rim these days and once you do there is less of a chance you will have a goliath waiting for you.

70sFan · Post #31 » by **70sFan** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 6:37 pm

Great work, thanks a lot!

It seems Jordan in early 90s was better shooter than I thought. I always knew his improvement as a midrange shooter in late 90s is overblown, but these %s looks GOAT with huge volume. Along with his ability to create off the dribble it seems he's definitely one of the best midramge shooters ever. It also negates the opinion that Kobe is better shooter. They are much closer than you may think.

BTW, are you going to do other similar projects? I've seen your Wilt, Russell, Jabbar, Shaq and Barkley works and they are also amazing. I'd like to see personally midrange %s of Jerry West and Oscar Robertson. I know sample of size is very small, but not really smaller than in Wilt and Russell cases. Do you think they would be close to Jordan as a midrange shooters? How about driving ability? It would be great indeed.

Dipper 13 · Post #32 » by **Dipper 13** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:16 pm

Do you think they would be close to Jordan as a midrange shooters? How about driving ability? It would be great indeed.

I think it would depend on the specific season, which is where the lack of available games is a major issue. These types of stats can vary a great deal from year to year. For instance, below is Shaq's RS efficiency in the restricted area by season (from NBA.com):

*Note there was no restricted area in 1997, it was first introduced in 1998.

http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/406/stats/shooting/?Season=1996-97&SeasonType=Regular%20Season

1997: 67.0% FG, 11.1 FGA
1998: 70.4% FG, 10.9 FGA
1999: 71.6% FG, 9.2 FGA
2000: 74.8% FG, 9.7 FGA
2001: 77.4% FG, 8.8 FGA
2002: 73.6% FG, 9.9 FGA
2003: 73.8% FG, 9.9 FGA
2004: 72.3% FG, 8.5 FGA
2005: 73.1% FG, 8.9 FGA
2006: 75.6% FG, 8.1 FGA
2007: 75.7% FG, 6.2 FGA
2008: 72.8% FG, 5.1 FGA
2009: 73.3% FG, 6.7 FGA

Djoker · Post #33 » by **Djoker** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:26 pm

In today's era there is a lot more shadowing/soft double teams. It may be a bit easier to finish once you're at the rim but it is much harder to get there in the first place. In the 90's man-to-man D was the norm and if MJ could get past the first defender he just had to go up strong. Even charges weren't called as often back then.

Today there is less lumbering big men camping the paint but more soft double teams that make drives difficult. Lebron in the 2016 Finals had a lot of trouble getting to the rim with Tristan Thompson in the game because Green simply played halfway between Thompson and Lebron. He could cut off the pass if Thompson cut to the rim and Lebron tried to hit him and he could recover and trap/contest Lebron if he drove in. Prior to the 2001 offseason, defenders had to be within an arm's length of their man and couldn't shadow areas of the court the way they can now.

Either way, these era differences are overblown. Great players adjust IMO.

Alphabet · Post #34 » by **Alphabet** » Mon Jul 25, 2016 11:40 pm

Amazing stuff man, appreciate the hard work.

Stop taking those damn leaner/jumpers Jordan!!!

Gregoire · Post #35 » by **Gregoire** » Tue Jul 26, 2016 6:30 am

rich316 wrote:
I think it has been fairly clear for years now that Lebron is the GOAT transition player, without much room for debate. In terms of halfcourt finishing, I don't know that this particular sample gives a clear picture of MJ's peak at-rim dominance, and I don't think you can call Lebron "clearly superior" at the rim. MJ's clear advantage at the FT line over Lebron balances out any raw FG% edge for James, IMO. I believe the '91 version of this project showed MJ at well above 60% in the restricted area. Barkley, I could see that argument, but they are different players with different strengths. MJ's all-around scoring game was what made him unstoppable, not any one skillset. His mid-range game was what made him the arguable GOAT offensive player, because there wasn't really anything you could do about it.

On a side note, isn't it interesting how anything MJ does is still big news? Him making a statement about police violence is front-page news on ESPN.

Yes, there are some other samples, which clearly indicated that MJ was on par with Lebon in finishing ability.
viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1237243
viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1286698

Djoker · Post #36 » by **Djoker** » Tue Jul 26, 2016 5:15 pm

Gregoire wrote:
rich316 wrote:
I think it has been fairly clear for years now that Lebron is the GOAT transition player, without much room for debate. In terms of halfcourt finishing, I don't know that this particular sample gives a clear picture of MJ's peak at-rim dominance, and I don't think you can call Lebron "clearly superior" at the rim. MJ's clear advantage at the FT line over Lebron balances out any raw FG% edge for James, IMO. I believe the '91 version of this project showed MJ at well above 60% in the restricted area. Barkley, I could see that argument, but they are different players with different strengths. MJ's all-around scoring game was what made him unstoppable, not any one skillset. His mid-range game was what made him the arguable GOAT offensive player, because there wasn't really anything you could do about it.

On a side note, isn't it interesting how anything MJ does is still big news? Him making a statement about police violence is front-page news on ESPN.

Yes, there are some other samples, which clearly indicated that MJ was on par with Lebon in finishing ability.
viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1237243
viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1286698

To be fair one of those samples is the 1991 playoffs which is a rather small sample of just 17 games. Jordan shot 72.7% at the rim.

The other sample is a string of ~120 games from three different seasons. Jordan averaged 33.7 ppg on 53.5% from the field in those games compared to his cumulative average of 31.7 ppg on 52.8% shooting over those three seasons. The sample of games was not cherry-picked by any stretch but it is clearly better than his average and given that his efficiency is largely boosted by his rim % (midrange as good as it is still below his overall FG efficiency) it is likely that he shot well below those numbers.

Peak Jordan was in the 65-70% range at the rim, Peak Lebron is at 75-80% at the rim.

Frosty · Post #37 » by **Frosty** » Tue Jul 26, 2016 5:55 pm

Djoker wrote:
Gregoire wrote:
rich316 wrote:
I think it has been fairly clear for years now that Lebron is the GOAT transition player, without much room for debate. In terms of halfcourt finishing, I don't know that this particular sample gives a clear picture of MJ's peak at-rim dominance, and I don't think you can call Lebron "clearly superior" at the rim. MJ's clear advantage at the FT line over Lebron balances out any raw FG% edge for James, IMO. I believe the '91 version of this project showed MJ at well above 60% in the restricted area. Barkley, I could see that argument, but they are different players with different strengths. MJ's all-around scoring game was what made him unstoppable, not any one skillset. His mid-range game was what made him the arguable GOAT offensive player, because there wasn't really anything you could do about it.

On a side note, isn't it interesting how anything MJ does is still big news? Him making a statement about police violence is front-page news on ESPN.

Yes, there are some other samples, which clearly indicated that MJ was on par with Lebon in finishing ability.
viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1237243
viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1286698

To be fair one of those samples is the 1991 playoffs which is a rather small sample of just 17 games. Jordan shot 72.7% at the rim.

The other sample is a string of ~120 games from three different seasons. Jordan averaged 33.7 ppg on 53.5% from the field in those games compared to his cumulative average of 31.7 ppg on 52.8% shooting over those three seasons. The sample of games was not cherry-picked by any stretch but it is clearly better than his average and given that his efficiency is largely boosted by his rim % (midrange as good as it is still below his overall FG efficiency) it is likely that he shot well below those numbers.

Peak Jordan was in the 65-70% range at the rim, Peak Lebron is at 75-80% at the rim.

You've chosen to ignore two samples showing a 73%-74% finishing at the rim and arbitrarily decided that he's really sub 70%. Of course you assert that it is due entirely to getting better shots at the rim during both of these sample sizes. To bring his average down below 70% he'd have to have shot well below that during all those other games. To get him to the 65% you give as one bookend is hard to fathom.

Of course there are a lot of other explanations that could work for this change. He could have shot the same percentage at the rim but taken less of them and settled for more jumpers. We just don't know. The change from .528 to .535 is pretty insignificant, his yearly FG% fluctuated more than that. And then we have no idea what influence FT's had on the point total in that sample.

Post #38 » by **NO-KG-AI** » Tue Jul 26, 2016 6:00 pm

I'd like to see the difference in actual attempts at the rim. I think what makes Jordan a better player than LeBron is that he's better at getting the shots he wants, when he wants them, and at his peak, he was just flat out better at getting to the rim. I also think LeBron is more prone to pass out to the 3 point line if guys are challenging him at the rim, where as Jordan is more apt to try and finish. Not that this is a negative towards LeBron in that case, but it certainly would effect %'s

PCProductions · Post #39 » by **PCProductions** » Tue Jul 26, 2016 6:12 pm

NO-KG-AI wrote:I'd like to see the difference in actual attempts at the rim. I think what makes Jordan a better player than LeBron is that he's better at getting the shots he wants, when he wants them, and at his peak, he was just flat out better at getting to the rim. I also think LeBron is more prone to pass out to the 3 point line if guys are challenging him at the rim, where as Jordan is more apt to try and finish. Not that this is a negative towards LeBron in that case, but it certainly would effect %'s

Even if the numbers bear out to explain your hypothesis, you have to remember that there are very different defensive rules for both players.

Djoker · Post #40 » by **Djoker** » Tue Jul 26, 2016 7:39 pm

Frosty wrote:
Djoker wrote:
Gregoire wrote:
Yes, there are some other samples, which clearly indicated that MJ was on par with Lebon in finishing ability.
viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1237243
viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1286698

To be fair one of those samples is the 1991 playoffs which is a rather small sample of just 17 games. Jordan shot 72.7% at the rim.

The other sample is a string of ~120 games from three different seasons. Jordan averaged 33.7 ppg on 53.5% from the field in those games compared to his cumulative average of 31.7 ppg on 52.8% shooting over those three seasons. The sample of games was not cherry-picked by any stretch but it is clearly better than his average and given that his efficiency is largely boosted by his rim % (midrange as good as it is still below his overall FG efficiency) it is likely that he shot well below those numbers.

Peak Jordan was in the 65-70% range at the rim, Peak Lebron is at 75-80% at the rim.

You've chosen to ignore two samples showing a 73%-74% finishing at the rim and arbitrarily decided that he's really sub 70%. Of course you assert that it is due entirely to getting better shots at the rim during both of these sample sizes. To bring his average down below 70% he'd have to have shot well below that during all those other games. To get him to the 65% you give as one bookend is hard to fathom.

Of course there are a lot of other explanations that could work for this change. He could have shot the same percentage at the rim but taken less of them and settled for more jumpers. We just don't know. The change from .528 to .535 is pretty insignificant, his yearly FG% fluctuated more than that. And then we have no idea what influence FT's had on the point total in that sample.

We have quite a few representative samples of Jordan's rim %'s.

1991 Playoffs: 72.7%
1991-1992 Season (majority): 65.3%
1992 Playoffs: 60.6%

And then in latter years...

1996-1997 Season: 51.8%
1997 Playoffs: 59.4%
1997-1998 Season: 61.5%
1998 Playoffs: 66.9%

Based on these you would conclude that a peak Jordan shot around 65% at the rim, maybe a bit better if we give him some benefit of the doubt. 65-70% is very reasonable.

You insist on using that one 126-game random sample that shows 73-74% but doesn't seem to be representative. I'm sure if we take a slightly better half of Lebron's 2013-2014 season, his at rim % will be well into the 80's. Of course that would be erroneous too.