RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #5

[Joao Saraiva]

Will come here later, gonna vote for Wilt 1st and Duncan 2nd.

[wojoaderge]

You are right and somehow I forgot him; though to be fair, his offensive efficiency early on is poor (like so many Celtics) and I worry about his defensive rep when the Celtics had to put Russell on Chet Walker because Walker was eating the Celtic forwards' lunch in the playoffs. He had possibly the GOAT motor but wasn't the player in the 60s yet that he became in the 70s. I'd rate Bird era McHale above Russell era Havlicek but yeah, he's top 50 (and possibly so is McHale).

Right now I have Hondo at #29, certainly based mostly on his 70s work. I have McHale in the lower 50s. The one season he was the clear first banana he led his team to a 42-40 record, which just won't cut it for me in a Top 100 situation. Come to think of it, the guy whose draft position he was swapped for accomplished the same exact thing! Chief couldn't even lead his team to 30 wins.

[mdonnelly1989]

1. Michael Jordan
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3. Lebron James
4. Bill Russell
5. ????

Will get my thoughts up shortly, but am largely planning on going with Duncan and Wilt for this spot (could potentially be shaken off of Wilt in favour of Shaq as my alternate, though). Anyway, please begin.....

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You got my list correct?

[mdonnelly1989]

VOTE: Wilt Chamberlain
ALT: Tim Duncan

[THKNKG]

I know that I can often have "winner's bias," but I also feel that I can have "potential bias," whether for or against someone. For example, it's easy to view someone like Shaq, and extrapolate his 00 season to his whole career, or on the other hand, to extrapolate Wilt's statistical obsession or his lesser earlier impact to his whole career. I'm sorting through how I should deal with those biases of mine, but I'm not sure yet. I wonder if I tend to look at Wilt by what he "should have" done his whole career, versus what he did.

Anyways, at this spot, it becomes semi-wide open for most. I just want to give some sporadic thoughts of mine, and hopefully get some responses.

Duncan - I didn't realize how many of the most elite team defenses he led (I posted a comparison of him and Russell in the last thread). He had significantly better team defenses than any other non-Russell elite big. I also think I can tend to overrate his prime at times, but I think his peak is underrated. I also think that his longevity is typically undervalued. Also, Duncan seemed to have consistent defensive success, whether as co-anchor with DRob, anchor during the hand checking + illegal defense era, and post hand checking rule change. There were, like Russell, often a platoon of players (defensively, at least) over the span of the years, and yet he consistently led stellar defenses.

Shaq - at his apex, he might have been the most dominant basketball player ever (short list - Mikan, Russell, Wilt, Kareem, Lebron, Jordan, Shaq). Yet, he missed 90+ games during his best 6 year stretch. He was a strong negative in the locker room, his physical fitness could be unreliable. Is the ceiling value he provides really worth more than the slightly lower, but more consistent value a Duncan, KG, Magic, Hakeem, Etc. provide? As far as Wilt vs. Shaq, Wilt at his best played a style that is the best for a big man to maximize impact and to produce good fit, good spacing, etc. however, I'm not sure how much that matters, due to how dominant Shaq was.

Wilt - I don't ever see a time where he produces non-high level impact, but there were certainly times in his early years where he appeared to at least mitigate some of the impact his teammates could have (yet I feel Shaq had some of the same problems, though not sure how similar the degree of problems is). The only seasons I see as *huge* question marks are 61-63. His supporting cast wasn't very great though.

KG - regarding 06-07, not a single player on this shortlist had a team remotely resembling the level of dumpster fire KG had those years. He has the perfect skill set for an impactful big, and his impact stats show it. He was never a negative team influence, though not as overwhelmingly positive as Duncan/Russell/Magic. If you could add the verticality of a Duncan type player to Kg, it would be exactly what I would look for in a big man (aka Walton :/). KG fit in a variety of situations and maximizes his and his teammates' impact - carrying the team, leading an ATG defense, having actual talent on his team (04). I'm with eminence - I want to see more about his 90's seasons.

And some slightly lower candidates I want to mention:

Magic - led consistently phenomenal offenses, and filled a variety of roles as his skill set/team need evolved. I'd like to compare his ORtg z scores to those of the big men's Drtg z scores, just for my own sake.

Oscar - similar to Magic in a lot of ways, massively impactful just by looking at the 70s Bucks, and WOWY scores. I still don't know whether he belongs on Magic level, and where West falls either.

Hakeem - talent wise, on par with all of these players. He didn't seem to produce as many effective results given the situations with similar team composition, though that's just from memory, so I could be wrong (not near my computer). I want to know more about his 80's career, and how he compared offensively and defensively. One problem is that his 96/97/98/etc RAPM scores are pretty low, while DRob's still shine. Plus, RAW +/- paints DRob as a superior player, but raw plus minus is kinda a fickle stat.

DRob - consistently provided massive impact, but his playoff game suffered. I would like to attempt to determine if it was because he was doing something beyond the scope of how he could maximize a team (we saw that he was amazing in a Russell or 08 KG role where he could focus on finishing and playing otherworldly defense.)

Dirk - offensively, provided the highest gravity ever IMO. Consistently measured out impact wise at least near Duncan/KG. I wonder whether his lack of big man defensive impact minimizes the global effect on impact he could have had.



Please, chime in with thoughts/input/questions!

[Dr Positivity]

I voted for Duncan last time so I will do it again. After Kareem/Lebron/Jordan, I have a hard time deciding between the next group on just a "who had the best skillset" range and figuring out how to compare the more offensive players to the more defensive ones, that I like choosing between them on longevity and character both of which favor Duncan. His last 5 or 6 years is an advantage over Magic, Bird, etc. and his culture impact on the Spurs more than Wilt and Shaq.

As for KG I can totally see the argument for him being more valuable in the regular season than Duncan or Hakeem. The great defense combined with the floor spacing impact that big men benefit so much from nowadays, is a terrific combo. I'm just not as confident in his scoring skillset in a playoff matchup.

Vote: Tim Duncan

2nd: Larry Bird

[Outside]

Vote: Wilt
Alternate: Magic

Wilt has been discussed a ton in prior threads. At this point, with Jordan, Kareem, LeBron, and Russell out of the way, there may be a Wilt-Shaq comparison rising, which I find interesting.

Regarding longevity, I don't see an advantage for Shaq. Shaq played 19 seasons versus 14 for Wilt, but the total number of games is only 1,207 to 1,045 in favor of Shaq. Wilt was durable and only had the 1969-70 season where he missed a significant number of games. Wilt had nine seasons of 80+ games, and he played 70+ in 13 of 14 seasons. Shaq had only two 80+ seasons (his first two) and six 70+ seasons. After 2000-01 (over half of his career), he had only two 70+ seasons. In the last few seasons, he was a shadow of his former self who watched a lot of games in a suit and struggled to get up and down the court.

On the other hand, in each of Wilt's last three seasons, he:

-- Played all 82 games
-- Led the league in rebounding
-- Led the league in FG%
-- Led the league in EFG% despite his poor free throw shooting
-- Averaged over 42 minutes per game
-- Averaged over four assists per game

Wilt could've kept playing and been productive for years, but chose not to. I don't give Shaq bonus points for limping through seven mediocre seasons, with his 2008-09 season in Phoenix being the only decent one of the bunch.

I like Shaq. I have him 10th on my list. He was a dominant, almost unstoppable force in the Lakers' three-peat, and he consistently raised his game in the playoffs. But compared to Wilt, he falls short in many areas.

Here's how many times each player led the league in rebounding:

Wilt: 11 of 14 seasons
Shaq: 0 of 19 seasons

We can discuss all kinds of factors, but there's no way I can get past that one.

[2klegend]

5th Vote: Tim Duncan

I don't know why Duncan peak continue to be underated. In two season '02, '03.

REG: 27 PER, 57ts%, .253 WS/48, 7.5 BPM
POS: 29 PER, 57ts%, .270 WS/48, 11.3 BPM

You can count how many players peak put up those number while anchoring elite defense with one hand.

For longevity throughout his 19 years NBA career, he has 18 seasons over 21+ PER so the guy is very consistent in producing all-star level impact. He got 2 MVPs, 3 Final MVP, 5 titles of which four he was the best player on the floor on both sides of the court. The other guy who has that impressive 2-ways impact is Hakeem but Hakeem did not have the intangibles as Duncan and he simply did not win enough to warrant being over Duncan at the 5th spot.

For my GOAT project,

Duncan was 5th in Peak, 13th in Prime, Tie for 1st in Longevity, and 4th in accolades points.

Alternative pick: Wilt Chamberlain.

[scrabbarista]

5th. Tim Duncan

6th. Magic Johnson

I'm pretty busy, so I'll let fivethirtyeight do my talking:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bill-russells-celtics-were-great-tim-duncans-spurs-have-been-better/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/farewell-to-tim-duncan-the-greatest-two-way-player-in-modern-nba-history/

I'll also add that only three players in history have at least six seasons with a Defensive Rating of 96 or better. Duncan did it twelve times.

There are a number of guys who have legitimate cases for GOAT: MJ, Kareem, Wilt, Russell, maybe two or three others, depending on the metrics used to argue for greatness. Duncan, though, just might be the guy who has the most number of cases for second all-time. His career was that complete.

[THKNKG]

By the way, I picked up a book from my local library on the NBA finals. It's an illustrated history from 1990 released by the NBA. Not sure if it's been shared here before, but I'm reading through it, and if there's anything you'd like for me to post, I can.

[ThaRegul8r]

Duncan outside the Top 5 would be a blight on the list, imo

Since LeBron rose from 7th to 3rd, everyone else will necessarily be bumped down. That would drop Duncan to 6th if everything holds as it's done so far. And LeBron's the only active player until #16 from the last Top 100, so he's the only player in the Top 10 adding anything. The book is closed on everyone else. I haven't looked at the voter composition, but if the voting panel is predominantly the same as last time with some new additions interspersed, there's no reason to expect the Top 10 order to change with the aforementioned exception of the still-active LeBron.

[THKNKG]

Also, here's a funny quote about Jim Pollard;

"We used to know when Pollard had been in the building, because the tops of the backboards would be clean where he raked them." Bones McKinney

Pollard was 6'3.5"

[Clyde Frazier]

Just throwing it out there: what's the argument for wilt over magic?

[Winsome Gerbil]

This will be:

5) Wilt
6) Magic

[ardee]

Just throwing it out there: what's the argument for wilt over magic?

Well it's not a huge gap since Magic is my second pick but primarily it's questionable as to what year he became the driving force of the team.

[ardee]

5th. Tim Duncan

6th. Magic Johnson

This is the one I feel strongest about so far (Duncan outside the Top 5 would be a blight on the list, imo). Even though I'm really busy, I'll do my best to get a good argument for Duncan posted in time for some of you to actually read it.

IMO it's a bigger reach to have Duncan in the top 5 than out of it. Jordan, LBJ, Kareem, Russell and Wilt were all clearly more dominant players.

[ardee]

Vote: Wilt
Alternate: Magic

Wilt has been discussed a ton in prior threads. At this point, with Jordan, Kareem, LeBron, and Russell out of the way, there may be a Wilt-Shaq comparison rising, which I find interesting.

Regarding longevity, I don't see an advantage for Shaq. Shaq played 19 seasons versus 14 for Wilt, but the total number of games is only 1,207 to 1,045 in favor of Shaq. Wilt was durable and only had the 1969-70 season where he missed a significant number of games. Wilt had nine seasons of 80+ games, and he played 70+ in 13 of 14 seasons. Shaq had only two 80+ seasons (his first two) and six 70+ seasons. After 2000-01 (over half of his career), he had only two 70+ seasons. In the last few seasons, he was a shadow of his former self who watched a lot of games in a suit and struggled to get up and down the court.

On the other hand, in each of Wilt's last three seasons, he:

-- Played all 82 games
-- Led the league in rebounding
-- Led the league in FG%
-- Led the league in EFG% despite his poor free throw shooting
-- Averaged over 42 minutes per game
-- Averaged over four assists per game

Wilt could've kept playing and been productive for years, but chose not to. I don't give Shaq bonus points for limping through seven mediocre seasons, with his 2008-09 season in Phoenix being the only decent one of the bunch.

I like Shaq. I have him 10th on my list. He was a dominant, almost unstoppable force in the Lakers' three-peat, and he consistently raised his game in the playoffs. But compared to Wilt, he falls short in many areas.

Here's how many times each player led the league in rebounding:

Wilt: 11 of 14 seasons
Shaq: 0 of 19 seasons

We can discuss all kinds of factors, but there's no way I can get past that one.

Good points. Those last few Wilt seasons get really underrated, people don't realize he was a truly consistently dominant defender by that point. Bill Sharman coached the Lakers in '72, and he designed the team to mimic the 60s Celtics teams he played on, with Wilt playing the Russell role, using his defense to initiate the fastbreak.

I think '72 Wilt was just as good as an average Russell season.

[ardee]

I voted for Duncan last time so I will do it again. After Kareem/Lebron/Jordan, I have a hard time deciding between the next group on just a "who had the best skillset" range and figuring out how to compare the more offensive players to the more defensive ones, that I like choosing between them on longevity and character both of which favor Duncan. His last 5 or 6 years is an advantage over Magic, Bird, etc. and his culture impact on the Spurs more than Wilt and Shaq.

As for KG I can totally see the argument for him being more valuable in the regular season than Duncan or Hakeem. The great defense combined with the floor spacing impact that big men benefit so much from nowadays, is a terrific combo. I'm just not as confident in his scoring skillset in a playoff matchup.

Vote: Tim Duncan

2nd: Larry Bird

If you value longevity so much why not Kobe? He has the longevity of Duncan and beats out Wilt and Shaq in the leadership aspect as well.

[Outside]

Just throwing it out there: what's the argument for wilt over magic?

For me, all these top guys are so close that each person's ranking comes down to what that person values and whether they discount a player for a particular reason, whether that be based on performance and stats or on other factors, such as the era a player played in or whether the person doing the ranking ever saw older players.

Both Magic and Wilt are in my top tier of players, but for ranking purposes, I placed Wilt above Magic primarily for these reasons:

-- Wilt was dominant from the time he entered the league, leading the league in scoring his first six seasons, rebounding his first four, and both FG% and EFG% three of his first six. People tend to think of Magic's early career higher than they should because of his spectacular game 6 in the finals his rookie season, but Kareem was the alpha of those Laker teams until sometime in the mid-80s, probably 86-87.

-- Magic played only 13 seasons, while Wilt played 14, so Magic doesn't get a bump for longevity.

-- Magic was a poor outside shooter for most of his career. He worked and developed a decent three-point shot the last few seasons, but he was weak from even mid-range for years. It's a measure of his greatness that he was still able to beat defenses anyway even though they gave him the outside shot and geared up to stop his penetration.

-- His last few seasons, Magic was still a very good team defender and excellent rebounder, but he deteriorated drastically as an individual defender. He got a lot heavier, and he had no chance of sticking with guards at that point, so the rest of the team had to cover for him.

Magic is my top point guard of all time, and I have him one slot behind Wilt in my all-time list. I give Magic an edge over Wilt with his will to win, unselfishness, and devotion to team play, but in this exercise of splitting hairs, I give Wilt the overall edge.

[Clyde Frazier]

Just throwing it out there: what's the argument for wilt over magic?

For me, all these top guys are so close that each person's ranking comes down to what that person values and whether they discount a player for a particular reason, whether that be based on performance and stats or on other factors, such as the era a player played in or whether the person doing the ranking ever saw older players.

Both Magic and Wilt are in my top tier of players, but for ranking purposes, I placed Wilt above Magic primarily for these reasons:

-- Wilt was dominant from the time he entered the league, leading the league in scoring his first six seasons, rebounding his first four, and both FG% and EFG% three of his first six. People tend to think of Magic's early career higher than they should because of his spectacular game 6 in the finals his rookie season, but Kareem was the alpha of those Laker teams until sometime in the mid-80s, probably 86-87.

-- Magic played only 13 seasons, while Wilt played 14, so Magic doesn't get a bump for longevity.

-- Magic was a poor outside shooter for most of his career. He worked and developed a decent three-point shot the last few seasons, but he was weak from even mid-range for years. It's a measure of his greatness that he was still able to beat defenses anyway even though they gave him the outside shot and geared up to stop his penetration.

-- His last few seasons, Magic was still a very good team defender and excellent rebounder, but he deteriorated drastically as an individual defender. He got a lot heavier, and he had no chance of sticking with guards at that point, so the rest of the team had to cover for him.

Magic is my top point guard of all time, and I have him one slot behind Wilt in my all-time list. I give Magic an edge over Wilt with his will to win, unselfishness, and devotion to team play, but in this exercise of splitting hairs, I give Wilt the overall edge.

That's fair. I certainly have them close as well. Back in the 2014 project I started voting for Magic at 3, and thought this time around maybe I wouldn't have him quite so high. I've been voting for Duncan since the 3rd spot, but since LeBron got in, I still think very highly of Magic. I might go duncan again here as I value longevity highly, but I have some thinking to do.