RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #63

[Outside]

I'm seriously curious -- how do you compare TMac and Harden with their poor playoff performances to other players still available who rose to the challenge in the biggest playoff moments but don't have the RS numbers that TMac and Harden have, like Sam Jones, James Worthy, and Joe Dumars?

TMac and Harden have impressive RS resumes -- I get that. But Chauncey Billups made it in a while ago, and Sam Jones has been mentioned a little, but Worthy and Dumars haven't, yet they are all excellent playoff performers on championship teams with careers that compare favorably with Billups.

This whole ranking exercise is really difficult, and that's particularly the case when comparing players like TMac and Harden with guys like Jones, Worthy, and Dumars. I think someone recently referred to Alex English's RS numbers as "empty calories," and while that's obviously a simplification, there's an element of truth to that that I think also applies to TMac and Harden. How do we avoid overvaluing stats that are inflated by being on bad teams or are system-generated? I have English and Bob McAdoo ranked above both TMac and Harden.

I'm the outlier here in my approach, so please don't take this as criticism of voting for a particular player. I'm just trying to gain a better understanding of how others balance such differing factors.

I have tremendous respect for the talent and skill necessary to put up the numbers that TMac and Harden have. I would've voted for Harden as RS MVP last season. But this gets at the core of what's valued, how to value the stats in and of themselves versus how much a player contributes to winning, particularly in the playoffs. How do we factor in the quality of a player's teammates, the luck of where injuries fall and the quality of teams in a player's era?

I'm questioning whether I should adjust my thinking on English, TMac, and Harden, whether I haven't given them a fair shake, and whether I overvalue the "winning" contributions of Jones, Worthy, and Dumars. I'm still inclined to think I'm right, but the quality of basketball knowledge in this group and the fact that I'm such an outlier is leading me to question my thinking.

EDIT: Just want to add my apologies for such a rambling post, but this reflects more where I'm at with this project than whether player A or player B should get voted in.

[trex_8063]

I'm seriously curious -- how do you compare TMac and Harden with their poor playoff performances to other players still available who rose to the challenge in the biggest playoff moments but don't have the RS numbers that TMac and Harden have, like Sam Jones, James Worthy, and Joe Dumars?

I'll try to answer more completely to your whole post later, but I wanted to first address one question (with a question of my own):

Where does this notion [and I think you're the second to mention it] of TMac as a poor playoff performer come from?

TMac in his prime years ('01-'07) averaged 30.1 ppg/6.6 rpg/6.4 apg/3.2 topg @ 52.7% TS in the playoffs. Even that shooting efficiency isn't too bad considering the majority of that sample came from '01-'05, in which league avg TS was around 52% (lowest was 51.6% in '04, highest was 52.9% in '05). Was collectively a 25.5 PER, .150 WS/48, +6.8 BPM player (in 42.9 mpg) in the playoffs during his prime. Obviously may be some ups and downs from one year to the next, but overall, that's not a substantial drop-off from his rs standard at all; it's actually holding even (if not marginally up, statistically) of his rs standard.
And in '08 (a "near-prime" year), he was substantially better in the playoffs than in the rs.

Not saying he was as consistently up to [or better than] his rs standards as guys like Jones, Worthy, and Dumars (I haven't looked at the specifics). But how is he getting lumped in with Harden?

EDIT: As I mentioned in my vote post (post #2), he's got the 12th-highest career playoff PER of all-time (in both NBA and ABA); and the 15th-highest career playoff BPM of all-time (or since 1973). That doesn't seem like someone who should have to carry a label of "poor playoff performer".

And a big consideration vs Jones, Worthy, or Dumars: TMac (and Harden, for that matter, though I'm not supporting him yet) were substantially better players [in the rs].

[penbeast0]

I agree that KJ has a longevity advantage, a significant one. I have prime Moncrief on a tier close to prime DWade though, and KJ a level below. Sid was a better individual player and changed his team's culture to focus on defense . . . the Bucks became one of the best defensive teams in the league with a Moncrief led small ball defensive focus in an age where all the great defenses were built inside out. I give Don Nelson some serious credit as well and understand that others don't always agree but the combination of individual brilliance and team impact says a lot to me.

What about playoff performance? It looks like KJ played better there too as Moncrief has a bit of a drop-off.

The key difference for me is the defensive difference making. I saw Sid just plain shut down guys like All-Star Otis Birdsong or HOFer Dennis Johnson, completely taking them out of their team's offense. That's an incredibly valuable tool to have in the playoffs. Sid was at times inconsistent offensively in the playoffs but those two playoff series were the best defensive performances I've ever seen from a perimeter player; and he had series where he led the NBA in playoff scoring efficiency as well.

I do like KJ though, rating him clearly over contemporaries Mark Price and Tim Hardaway who he was frequently compared to. Terrific offensive player indeed.

[penbeast0]

I'm seriously curious -- how do you compare TMac and Harden with their poor playoff performances to other players still available who rose to the challenge in the biggest playoff moments but don't have the RS numbers that TMac and Harden have, like Sam Jones, James Worthy, and Joe Dumars?

TMac and Harden have impressive RS resumes -- I get that. But Chauncey Billups made it in a while ago, and Sam Jones has been mentioned a little, but Worthy and Dumars haven't, yet they are all excellent playoff performers on championship teams with careers that compare favorably with Billups.

This whole ranking exercise is really difficult, and that's particularly the case when comparing players like TMac and Harden with guys like Jones, Worthy, and Dumars. I think someone recently referred to Alex English's RS numbers as "empty calories," and while that's obviously a simplification, there's an element of truth to that that I think also applies to TMac and Harden. How do we avoid overvaluing stats that are inflated by being on bad teams or are system-generated? I have English and Bob McAdoo ranked above both TMac and Harden.

I'm the outlier here in my approach, so please don't take this as criticism of voting for a particular player. I'm just trying to gain a better understanding of how others balance such differing factors.

I have tremendous respect for the talent and skill necessary to put up the numbers that TMac and Harden have. I would've voted for Harden as RS MVP last season. But this gets at the core of what's valued, how to value the stats in and of themselves versus how much a player contributes to winning, particularly in the playoffs. How do we factor in the quality of a player's teammates, the luck of where injuries fall and the quality of teams in a player's era?

I'm questioning whether I should adjust my thinking on English, TMac, and Harden, whether I haven't given them a fair shake, and whether I overvalue the "winning" contributions of Jones, Worthy, and Dumars. I'm still inclined to think I'm right, but the quality of basketball knowledge in this group and the fact that I'm such an outlier is leading me to question my thinking.

EDIT: Just want to add my apologies for such a rambling post, but this reflects more where I'm at with this project than whether player A or player B should get voted in.

Stick to your guns, just be ready when the gunslingers start shooting at you.

[trex_8063]

I agree that KJ has a longevity advantage, a significant one. I have prime Moncrief on a tier close to prime DWade though, and KJ a level below. Sid was a better individual player and changed his team's culture to focus on defense . . . the Bucks became one of the best defensive teams in the league with a Moncrief led small ball defensive focus in an age where all the great defenses were built inside out. I give Don Nelson some serious credit as well and understand that others don't always agree but the combination of individual brilliance and team impact says a lot to me.

What about playoff performance? It looks like KJ played better there too as Moncrief has a bit of a drop-off.

The key difference for me is the defensive difference making. I saw Sid just plain shut down guys like All-Star Otis Birdsong or HOFer Dennis Johnson, completely taking them out of their team's offense. That's an incredibly valuable tool to have in the playoffs. Sid was at times inconsistent offensively in the playoffs but those two playoff series were the best defensive performances I've ever seen from a perimeter player; and he had series where he led the NBA in playoff scoring efficiency as well.

Any chance you have some links to YouTube videos of the games/series's you're speaking of? I was wanting to watch a little of prime Moncrief again, to refresh my memory (and perhaps pay better scrutiny to his defense) as we're getting to that stage of the list.

[trex_8063]

Thru post #25:

Tracy McGrady - 2 (trex_8063, dhsilv2)
James Harden - 1 (pandrade83)
Alex English - 1 (penbeast0)

About 21 hours left till this one goes to runoff.

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[dhsilv2]

I'm seriously curious -- how do you compare TMac and Harden with their poor playoff performances to other players still available who rose to the challenge in the biggest playoff moments but don't have the RS numbers that TMac and Harden have, like Sam Jones, James Worthy, and Joe Dumars?

TMac and Harden have impressive RS resumes -- I get that. But Chauncey Billups made it in a while ago, and Sam Jones has been mentioned a little, but Worthy and Dumars haven't, yet they are all excellent playoff performers on championship teams with careers that compare favorably with Billups.

This whole ranking exercise is really difficult, and that's particularly the case when comparing players like TMac and Harden with guys like Jones, Worthy, and Dumars. I think someone recently referred to Alex English's RS numbers as "empty calories," and while that's obviously a simplification, there's an element of truth to that that I think also applies to TMac and Harden. How do we avoid overvaluing stats that are inflated by being on bad teams or are system-generated? I have English and Bob McAdoo ranked above both TMac and Harden.

I'm the outlier here in my approach, so please don't take this as criticism of voting for a particular player. I'm just trying to gain a better understanding of how others balance such differing factors.

I have tremendous respect for the talent and skill necessary to put up the numbers that TMac and Harden have. I would've voted for Harden as RS MVP last season. But this gets at the core of what's valued, how to value the stats in and of themselves versus how much a player contributes to winning, particularly in the playoffs. How do we factor in the quality of a player's teammates, the luck of where injuries fall and the quality of teams in a player's era?

I'm questioning whether I should adjust my thinking on English, TMac, and Harden, whether I haven't given them a fair shake, and whether I overvalue the "winning" contributions of Jones, Worthy, and Dumars. I'm still inclined to think I'm right, but the quality of basketball knowledge in this group and the fact that I'm such an outlier is leading me to question my thinking.

EDIT: Just want to add my apologies for such a rambling post, but this reflects more where I'm at with this project than whether player A or player B should get voted in.

How is Harden a poor playoff player? I get that his stats drop more than some peers, but since you mention worthy who I've never thought of as a defensive guy I'll use him. Harden's career PER in the playoffs is roughly Worthy's peak PER in the playoffs. Harden's career BPM is a bit higher than Worthy's best playoff series. Harden has not imo had too many bad losses per say either. I feel like modern players, especially unlikable ones get just insane amounts of scrutiny and people don't sit back and ask if it's fair or justified.

Trex address Tmac who was absolutely not a poor playoff performer.

[penbeast0]

What about playoff performance? It looks like KJ played better there too as Moncrief has a bit of a drop-off.

The key difference for me is the defensive difference making. I saw Sid just plain shut down guys like All-Star Otis Birdsong or HOFer Dennis Johnson, completely taking them out of their team's offense. That's an incredibly valuable tool to have in the playoffs. Sid was at times inconsistent offensively in the playoffs but those two playoff series were the best defensive performances I've ever seen from a perimeter player; and he had series where he led the NBA in playoff scoring efficiency as well.

Any chance you have some links to YouTube videos of the games/series's you're speaking of? I was wanting to watch a little of prime Moncrief again, to refresh my memory (and perhaps pay better scrutiny to his defense) as we're getting to that stage of the list.

At first glance, just highlights and games v. Jordan and Chicago mainly. They do have one game in full v. Boston but it was, oddly enough, an offensive shootout between Moncrief (34 points) and DJ (25 points) in arguably their best offensive games of the series rather than a defensive gem for either.

[Joao Saraiva]

1st vote Vince Carter - longevity gap over the others and prime/peak was still very good. Still think Harden needs more years to overcome VC, and I have him above T-Mac because despite T-Mac having a better peak, that was an outlier in his career. Prime-wise I think Tracy is above but not with a big margin. And a big margin is there definitely on longevity.

2nd vote - James Harden

[pandrade83]

I'm seriously curious -- how do you compare TMac and Harden with their poor playoff performances to other players still available who rose to the challenge in the biggest playoff moments but don't have the RS numbers that TMac and Harden have, like Sam Jones, James Worthy, and Joe Dumars?

TMac and Harden have impressive RS resumes -- I get that. But Chauncey Billups made it in a while ago, and Sam Jones has been mentioned a little, but Worthy and Dumars haven't, yet they are all excellent playoff performers on championship teams with careers that compare favorably with Billups.

This whole ranking exercise is really difficult, and that's particularly the case when comparing players like TMac and Harden with guys like Jones, Worthy, and Dumars. I think someone recently referred to Alex English's RS numbers as "empty calories," and while that's obviously a simplification, there's an element of truth to that that I think also applies to TMac and Harden. How do we avoid overvaluing stats that are inflated by being on bad teams or are system-generated? I have English and Bob McAdoo ranked above both TMac and Harden.

I'm the outlier here in my approach, so please don't take this as criticism of voting for a particular player. I'm just trying to gain a better understanding of how others balance such differing factors.

I have tremendous respect for the talent and skill necessary to put up the numbers that TMac and Harden have. I would've voted for Harden as RS MVP last season. But this gets at the core of what's valued, how to value the stats in and of themselves versus how much a player contributes to winning, particularly in the playoffs. How do we factor in the quality of a player's teammates, the luck of where injuries fall and the quality of teams in a player's era?

I'm questioning whether I should adjust my thinking on English, TMac, and Harden, whether I haven't given them a fair shake, and whether I overvalue the "winning" contributions of Jones, Worthy, and Dumars. I'm still inclined to think I'm right, but the quality of basketball knowledge in this group and the fact that I'm such an outlier is leading me to question my thinking.

EDIT: Just want to add my apologies for such a rambling post, but this reflects more where I'm at with this project than whether player A or player B should get voted in.

Taking a different approach. Let's put Worthy in Tmac's spot & Dumars in Harden's spot. There's nothing to get disappointed about because there's a lot of non-playoff seasons. Worthy isn't getting to the playoffs with McGrady's Orlando teams.

Then in Houston,

'05 is only a disappointing result because McGrady got them to a Game 7 & played great vs. Dirk averaging 31-7-7.
'06 sees McGrady & Yao both suffer injuries.
'07 Yao gets hurt - that's why they have to play Game 7 in Utah - all the missed games hurt their seeding. This was the one series where McGrady was a little disappointing (relatively) getting 25-7-6 and just 48% TS. Could he have done better? Sure, but this is the one series where I didn't hink he played well.
'08 - the long winning streak - significant portions without Yao - they win 55 games anyway - but no Yao for the playoffs & Utah beats them down. McGrady still gets 27-8-7.

Bottom line: Worthy isn't having a ton of success there either.

If Dumars is on Houston, they're a first round exit team every year AT BEST.

[LA Bird]

Same as last round...

1. Vince Carter
Carter has a clear longevity advantage against McGrady and Harden who peaked higher. Against volume scorers with similar longevity, Carter's 3pt shot spaces the floor better and he is a better passer than Wilkins, a better defensive player than Iverson.
A great all round player who wasn't far off from Pierce (who was voted in 15 places ago BTW) during their primes. Somewhat questionable intangibles early on especially in how he left Toronto but turned into a great teammate towards the end of his career. FWIW, I have Carter ranked as 2nd best sixth man in the league in his first season off the bench with the Mavs and it's not often you see a star of his caliber transition into a bench role this successfully.

2. Nate Thurmond

I've been voting Carter for a while now and it seems like a recurrent criticism for him is his supposed lack of impact during his prime... which is a bit puzzling since he is actually one of the better players in RAPM and plus minus type stats. McGrady and Carter is probably going to be the top 2 contenders in this round so let's take a look at the comparison:

Career on-off (regular season)
+7.3 Carter
+6.0 McGrady

Career on-off (playoffs)
+8.2 Carter
-4.5 McGrady

01~15 RAPM
+4.95 Carter
+4.83 McGrady

Career WOWRYR
+2.7 Carter
+2.4 McGrady

Carter has McGrady beat in every single category. I posted this last round as well:

Number of seasons with net on/off above 10 (since 1994)
12 Garnett
9 James
8 Carter <--- Only 2 seasons in NJ and Kidd was traded halfway through one of those seasons
7 Nowitzki
6 O'Neal, Malone, Paul, Blaylock, Kidd
5 Curry, Duncan, Nash, Stockton
4 Bryant, Pierce, Mutombo

The only players with more 10+ net on/off seasons in the last 25 years are Garnett and LeBron.
And even if you ignore plus minus or any other form of impact stats, Carter is ahead of McGrady in every single box score stats as well in both regular season and playoffs. This include:

• Points
• Rebounds
• Assists
• Steals
• Blocks (tied in playoffs)
• TS%
• WS
• VORP

In other words, Carter is higher than McGrady in just about every single career box score and non box score stat.
Finally, if you want rank players based on team success, Carter is ahead of McGrady in both regular season and postseason win% and he actually won playoff series during his prime.

I don't see a case for TMac ahead of Carter unless this is a peak list project (it's not)

[penbeast0]

Taking a different approach. Let's put Worthy in Tmac's spot & Dumars in Harden's spot. There's nothing to get disappointed about because there's a lot of non-playoff seasons. Worthy isn't getting to the playoffs with McGrady's Orlando teams.

Then in Houston,

'05 is only a disappointing result because McGrady got them to a Game 7 & played great vs. Dirk averaging 31-7-7.
'06 sees McGrady & Yao both suffer injuries.
'07 Yao gets hurt - that's why they have to play Game 7 in Utah - all the missed games hurt their seeding. This was the one series where McGrady was a little disappointing (relatively) getting 25-7-6 and just 48% TS. Could he have done better? Sure, but this is the one series where I didn't hink he played well.
'08 - the long winning streak - significant portions without Yao - they win 55 games anyway - but no Yao for the playoffs & Utah beats them down. McGrady still gets 27-8-7.

Bottom line: Worthy isn't having a ton of success there either.

If Dumars is on Houston, they're a first round exit team every year AT BEST.

English in Orlando, Tmac probably does better. In Houston, when Yao is injured and Tmac turns into Superman (And he did!), Houston may not continue that win streak. But when Yao is healthy, English will not disappear for long stretches, and he will be healthy when Yao is healthy and they will probably win more playoff series. English was not as spectacular as Tmac but he was a lot more reliable and he was something of an ironman as well. More efficient scorer, more consistent (but not as high a peak) on defense, equivalent or slighly inferior playmaker, inferior rebounder, but the health issue is pretty serious. And, English was very coachable where Tmac apparently was known for dogging it in practice (don't have a quote but relying on memory, if you find contrary evidence, let me know). So, if you wanted to win playoff series and get more out of your lesser personnel, English would be a much better bet in Houston than Tmac was.

[Clyde Frazier]

Vote 1 - Alex English
Vote 2 - Tracy McGrady

I came away really impressed with english's versatility as a scorer, and still brought an all around skill set to the table. He was about as consistent as anyone at a high volume for a long time (26.9 PPG on 55.7% TS from 81-89). During that span he only missed a total of 5 games, and his playoff production was similarly impressive.

[trex_8063]

Thru post #33:

Tracy McGrady - 2 (trex_8063, dhsilv2)
Vince Carter - 2 (LABird, Joao Saraiva)
Alex English - 2 (Clyde Frazier, penbeast0)
James Harden - 1 (pandrade83)


Eliminating Harden transfers one vote to McGrady:

Tracy McGrady - 3 (pandrade83, trex_8063, dhsilv2)
Vince Carter - 2 (LABird, Joao Saraiva)
Alex English - 2 (Clyde Frazier, penbeast0)


McGrady would be in the runoff for sure at this point. Carter has one 2ndary vote which English does not. As per editing protocols in the OP of sign-up thread, we'll use that as a means of further narrowing the runoff to two candidates. So am eliminating English, which transfers one more vote to McGrady:

Tracy McGrady - 4 (Clyde Frazier, pandrade83, trex_8063, dhsilv2)
Vince Carter - 2 (LABird, Joao Saraiva)


If your name is not shown here, please indicate your pick between Carter and McGrady with reasons why. Would like to conclude the runoff within 24 hours.

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[Clyde Frazier]

The cousins in a runoff! How fitting

[penbeast0]

Given the choice between spectacular sometimes, disappears sometimes and consistent, I'll take consistent. ALT VOTE: Vince Carter.

[Outside]

Before I jump into responding to various posters, and it looks like I have several to make (thank you everyone for the responses to my post), maybe someone can help with a side question -- how to locate other posts on REalGM, particularly my own. There's a My Posts option on the drop-down by my user name, but for quite a while now, all I get is an error message:

Sorry, search could not be performed. More information about this failure has been logged in the error log.

Even before I used to get this error, all the My Posts feature provided was a list of the threads I had posted in, which wasn't all that helpful.

The reason I bring this up is that I've written posts in the past about the playoff performances of TMac and Harden, and rather than have to look everything up again, it would save much time if I could just copy/paste what I had written previously. But I'm left with trying to figure which would take more time -- scrolling through 30-40 threads for my previous posts, or looking up the info (again) and re-creating my argument (again).

If anyone can guide me to a better way to access my previous posts, I would be incredibly grateful. I'm still new to the forum and don't know all the ins and outs of how to use the various features. Thanks.

[Doctor MJ]

Runoff vote: Vince Carter

I value the way he continued on and grew into veteranship. While I'd still side with McGrady for peak, I think people overstate the difference. I don't really think either guy is someone you should expect to carry your team to a title, both are in that next tier down.

[dhsilv2]

Before I jump into responding to various posters, and it looks like I have several to make (thank you everyone for the responses to my post), maybe someone can help with a side question -- how to locate other posts on REalGM, particularly my own. There's a My Posts option on the drop-down by my user name, but for quite a while now, all I get is an error message:

Sorry, search could not be performed. More information about this failure has been logged in the error log.

Even before I used to get this error, all the My Posts feature provided was a list of the threads I had posted in, which wasn't all that helpful.

The reason I bring this up is that I've written posts in the past about the playoff performances of TMac and Harden, and rather than have to look everything up again, it would save much time if I could just copy/paste what I had written previously. But I'm left with trying to figure which would take more time -- scrolling through 30-40 threads for my previous posts, or looking up the info (again) and re-creating my argument (again).

If anyone can guide me to a better way to access my previous posts, I would be incredibly grateful. I'm still new to the forum and don't know all the ins and outs of how to use the various features. Thanks.

Might take some work, but I'd assume google can search the forum and likely better than the forum search.

[pandrade83]

This is what I was going to suggest as well.