RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #71

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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #71 

Post#21 » by Clyde Frazier » Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:13 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:
pandrade83 wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:Can anyone comment on Hill post prime as a passer? This has driven down my view on him. He was this high assist guy when he had the ball and clearly without it they'll drop some, but the assist percentages drop into rather normal average levels. So am I right that much of his passing was system?


Do you mean post-prime Phx, or prime Detroit? Not sure what you're getting at.

But during his prime, the best surrounding players were post prime Joe Dumars, post-prime Otis Thorpe & Lindsay Hunter - that doesn't scream "opportunities to rack up assists" to me at least.


In detroit he was driving to the basket and throwing it out to shooters for 3's. Didn't Terry Mills have the record at one point for 3's in a game or tied?

Anyway post prime on the suns, I always expected him to rack up assists for a non primary guy. Didn't feel like it happened though.


Hmm... the answer is pretty simple: nash controlled everything in that offense. There weren't many secondary playmakers. Even Joe Johnson didn't create much for himself while on the suns. Hill was mainly tasked with guarding the best wing on the other team, getting out in transition and providing some semblance of spacing, even if he wasn't a major 3PT threat.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #71 

Post#22 » by trex_8063 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:19 pm

Clyde Frazier wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
pandrade83 wrote:
Do you mean post-prime Phx, or prime Detroit? Not sure what you're getting at.

But during his prime, the best surrounding players were post prime Joe Dumars, post-prime Otis Thorpe & Lindsay Hunter - that doesn't scream "opportunities to rack up assists" to me at least.


In detroit he was driving to the basket and throwing it out to shooters for 3's. Didn't Terry Mills have the record at one point for 3's in a game or tied?

Anyway post prime on the suns, I always expected him to rack up assists for a non primary guy. Didn't feel like it happened though.


Hmm... the answer is pretty simple: nash controlled everything in that offense. There weren't many secondary playmakers. Even Joe Johnson didn't create much for himself while on the suns. Hill was mainly tasked with guarding the best wing on the other team, getting out in transition and providing some semblance of spacing, even if he wasn't a major 3PT threat.



This, and I'd also add that in his prime a lot of his playmaking [as it is for many/most playmakers, I guess] was predicated on penetrating and breaking down the defense and then kicking/dishing to the open man. Old man Hill (Suns version) no longer really had the first step to effectively break guys down off the dribble.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #71 

Post#23 » by dhsilv2 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 8:21 pm

Clyde Frazier wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
pandrade83 wrote:
Do you mean post-prime Phx, or prime Detroit? Not sure what you're getting at.

But during his prime, the best surrounding players were post prime Joe Dumars, post-prime Otis Thorpe & Lindsay Hunter - that doesn't scream "opportunities to rack up assists" to me at least.


In detroit he was driving to the basket and throwing it out to shooters for 3's. Didn't Terry Mills have the record at one point for 3's in a game or tied?

Anyway post prime on the suns, I always expected him to rack up assists for a non primary guy. Didn't feel like it happened though.


Hmm... the answer is pretty simple: nash controlled everything in that offense. There weren't many secondary playmakers. Even Joe Johnson didn't create much for himself while on the suns. Hill was mainly tasked with guarding the best wing on the other team, getting out in transition and providing some semblance of spacing, even if he wasn't a major 3PT threat.


Did they always play together?
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #71 

Post#24 » by Clyde Frazier » Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:06 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:
Clyde Frazier wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
In detroit he was driving to the basket and throwing it out to shooters for 3's. Didn't Terry Mills have the record at one point for 3's in a game or tied?

Anyway post prime on the suns, I always expected him to rack up assists for a non primary guy. Didn't feel like it happened though.


Hmm... the answer is pretty simple: nash controlled everything in that offense. There weren't many secondary playmakers. Even Joe Johnson didn't create much for himself while on the suns. Hill was mainly tasked with guarding the best wing on the other team, getting out in transition and providing some semblance of spacing, even if he wasn't a major 3PT threat.


Did they always play together?


Yup, for 5 seasons.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #71 

Post#25 » by dhsilv2 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:15 pm

Clyde Frazier wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
Clyde Frazier wrote:
Hmm... the answer is pretty simple: nash controlled everything in that offense. There weren't many secondary playmakers. Even Joe Johnson didn't create much for himself while on the suns. Hill was mainly tasked with guarding the best wing on the other team, getting out in transition and providing some semblance of spacing, even if he wasn't a major 3PT threat.


Did they always play together?


Yup, for 5 seasons.


Sorry on the court at the same time. Nash only played 30-35 a game, someone had to run the second unit? At a glance one lineups it seems mostly they did, but I just checked a year.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #71 

Post#26 » by Clyde Frazier » Wed Dec 13, 2017 9:39 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:
Clyde Frazier wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
Did they always play together?


Yup, for 5 seasons.


Sorry on the court at the same time. Nash only played 30-35 a game, someone had to run the second unit? At a glance one lineups it seems mostly they did, but I just checked a year.


Oh ok. Here’s a quick look:

Minutes with nash / minutes without

’08 - 1576 / 646 = 70.9% of min with nash

’09 - 1760 / 685 = 71.9%

’10 - 1958 / 472 = 80.6%

’11 - 2021 / 388 = 83.9%

’12 - 1229 / 149 = 89.2%

Note that these were his age 35 through 39 seasons. The trend of playing more and more of his minutes with nash each season makes sense.As trex noted, he just wasn’t the same player athletically (especially after all the surgeries). So going back to your original question, it wasn’t really a matter of system for hill racking up more assists — he was just in a different role as a primarily ball handler and able to take on higher usage.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #71 

Post#27 » by Clyde Frazier » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:56 pm

penbeast0 wrote: --


Don't know if you have a twitter account, but this is a fun page to check out once in a while even if you don't:

https://twitter.com/ABAremembered
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #71 

Post#28 » by Owly » Wed Dec 13, 2017 10:59 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
Clyde Frazier wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
In detroit he was driving to the basket and throwing it out to shooters for 3's. Didn't Terry Mills have the record at one point for 3's in a game or tied?

Anyway post prime on the suns, I always expected him to rack up assists for a non primary guy. Didn't feel like it happened though.


Hmm... the answer is pretty simple: nash controlled everything in that offense. There weren't many secondary playmakers. Even Joe Johnson didn't create much for himself while on the suns. Hill was mainly tasked with guarding the best wing on the other team, getting out in transition and providing some semblance of spacing, even if he wasn't a major 3PT threat.



This, and I'd also add that in his prime a lot of his playmaking [as it is for many/most playmakers, I guess] was predicated on penetrating and breaking down the defense and then kicking/dishing to the open man. Old man Hill (Suns version) no longer really had the first step to effectively break guys down off the dribble.

And when he was going to the basket (because he's still getting a chunk of his buckets at the rim, though I don't disagree with what you said, it was stuff I thought about posting) what the defense is offering has surely shifted. Versus young athletic Hill, with the Pistons on the outside, the defense should/would say stop Hill dunking, allow the pass. Versus older Hill, with SSoL Suns spacing the floor, the defense should/would live with Hill attempting a play at the rim more.

What might be getting overlooked here though in the notion of Hill as "less than" because of his Phoenix days, is the positives offered. Not huge career value for versus guys in this range, but the way, even as he lost athleticism he found a way to be useful, fitting a role, and in terms of reviews (don't know on the data side) being a good defender (don't know if it's fair comp, how comparable injuries ever are, but versus Webber that's a advantage).


Some random thoughts, mostly from the previous thread:

Random thoughts ...

On Webber, BPM, RAPM, defense: I think I'd been persuaded by pen, and early career sources (scouting reports)that he was a below average defender, due to an unwillingness to bang in the post, but RAPM stuff suggests a clear positive at his best. His raw plus minus in '94 I think leads the Warriors, though on a per minute I think it would be Gatling by a fair distance (and both might say as much about the problems of playing Victor Alexander or Byron Houston, perhaps - I should probably look at their numbers before saying that though). On the defense thing were his hands that good that his stops were more likely to end possessions (more able to control blocks?)?

It's interesting that RAPM is more positive in years when WoWY had him as limited impact. Then again WoWY tends to say limited impact, not absolutely none, and the RAPMs aren't doing to blow you away (peaking at circa 14th best).

'95 Plus minus has him as one of the league's worst (in raw terms, non-per minute) and to an extent, that's to be expected on a bad team. On the other hand, when he misses significant time and then doesn't lift them - and this versus a fairly low baseline (6 of the 28 Webber-absent games are Gugliotta, but the rest are them reaching deeper into their bench).
Player – Plus Minus – Plus Minus per 48 amongst players only playing on the Bullets
Brian Oliver 9 10.28571
Gheorghe Muresan 1 0.027907
Larry Stewart -12 -1.66474
Kenny Walker -17 -3.06767
Doug Overton -130 -3.66197
Rex Chapman -130 -4.25068
Calbert Cheaney -242 -4.38174
Mitchell Butler -157 -4.84942
Juwan Howard -302 -6.17376
Chris Webber -301 -6.98984
Jim McIlvaine -81 -7.2809
Scott Skiles -340 -7.85749
Don MacLean -175 -7.98479
Kevin Duckworth -147 -8.62592
Anthony Tucker -211 -10.3136
(MOV at -5.60)
Obviously a very noisy measure, but the absence of any lift from Webber (versus non-Webber in aggregate) especially when his minutes should have pushed out bad players like Duckworth, MacLean or McIlvaine ... I think reinforces that Webber's impact was at best inconsistent.

Webber’s D might bear further scrutiny (and perhaps also perhaps the degree of discrepancy between RAPM and WoWY and explanations). I’m still on the sceptical side (particularly versus possible candidates her,e for reasons previously elucidated) but have interest in hearing more.


On a healthy Cummings versus Worthy (and Wilkins): Wasn’t Cummings healthy for as long as Worthy was relevant. So perhaps he just was better through that point. Off the top of my head I would have been somewhat sympathetic to that. Cummings’ metrics aren’t perhaps as good as I might have hoped though (and are somewhat up and down, and he’s clearly less efficient than Worthy, though more productive. Also reputationally Cummings wasn't a great defender up to the injuries, at least on the Clippers and Bucks (and then ended up being a lunch-pail/worker bee type later in his career). Even so, though, I can see the case for Cummings.

On Worthy elevating his game in the playoffs – It’s there but there’s some caveats. Like the dreadful state of the West meaning that the Lakers played nothing like the typical level of competition some other guys do. Like the fact that his longest runs and largest samples fall conveniently in his prime (and not in ’92-‘94). That he wasn’t the primary focus of gameplanning. And finally (and this is why I don’t really like rating a players playoffs versus their RS self) Worthy’s RS offers a low baseline. A 18.3 PER and .135 WS/48 against tougher opposition (not really so much on court, but at least in terms of the standard of average player setting those metrics) may be a solid hold or slight improvement (though again – benefitting from not including much of his weakest years) but it can only be an improvement over a low baseline. Those numbers don't stand out as great in absolute terms. Some might also penalise his absence in '83.

On “Big Game James” as reasoning – If this were valuable in and of itself, I’d have Henry “Big Game” James, above LeBron amongst baskeball-playing Jameses. I don’t because it isn’t. Maybe this is pedantic, but I'd talk about what it speaks to, not seperate it as a thing by itself.

Marion/Nance/Bobby Jones: Like that these guys are getting mentioned. Amongst my favourite players. Actually that’s not quite the full picture; I liked (and enjoyed watching) Worthy, these guys are guys that I like and guys I like advocating for.

On Webber having "vastly more playoff success" than Grant Hill: '99-'04 Webber does lead the Kings in playoff PER. Also clearly in usage, which PER overrates (more egregiously so when shooting at a low percentage - Webber at .486 TS% over this span). He also however rates as below (playoff) average in WS/48 and has less total Win Shares than Stojakovic, Bibby and Divac. The Kings had an ensemble cast with a deep bench (and if WoWY is correct - and this is an issue raised elsewhere - often did fine without him). The idea that Webber's "more playoff success" is a huge win for him in this area ... I don't get. Do we think he played really well on the whole for this span? Or do we credit team success to a deep team.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #71 

Post#29 » by trex_8063 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:26 pm

Clyde Frazier wrote:
penbeast0 wrote: --


Don't know if you have a twitter account, but this is a fun page to check out once in a while even if you don't:

https://twitter.com/ABAremembered


Going to runoff soon; you got an alternate in mind yet, Clyde?
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"Those who can make you believe absurdities, can make you commit atrocities." - Voltaire
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #71 

Post#30 » by trex_8063 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:33 pm

Owly wrote:On Webber, BPM, RAPM, defense: I think I'd been persuaded by pen, and early career sources (scouting reports)that he was a below average defender, due to an unwillingness to bang in the post, but RAPM stuff suggests a clear positive at his best. His raw plus minus in '94 I think leads the Warriors, though on a per minute I think it would be Gatling by a fair distance (and both might say as much about the problems of playing Victor Alexander or Byron Houston, perhaps - I should probably look at their numbers before saying that though).



Just to augment your comments a little.....
Looking at the rs-only APM colts18 provided for '94, '95, '96:
*Gatling was 32nd in the league in '94 at +2.17; Webber wasn't too far behind at 35th (+2.01).
**In '95 (injury year, fwiw; moves from C to more PF role) Webber was a -1.76.
***Not included in the '96 data, I presume because he missed most of the year to injury again.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #71 

Post#31 » by Clyde Frazier » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:38 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
Clyde Frazier wrote:
penbeast0 wrote: --


Don't know if you have a twitter account, but this is a fun page to check out once in a while even if you don't:

https://twitter.com/ABAremembered


Going to runoff soon; you got an alternate in mind yet, Clyde?


Ah, yeah sorry. I edited it to Greer.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #71 

Post#32 » by trex_8063 » Wed Dec 13, 2017 11:50 pm

Thru post #31:

Sidney Moncrief - 3 (Outside, dhsilv2, penbeast0)
Grant Hill - 2 (JordansBulls, pandrade83)
Paul Arizin - 1 (Clyde Frazier)
Tony Parker - 1 (trex_8063)


OK, we'll go to runoff with Moncrief and Hill. Eliminating the other two transfers one additional vote to Moncrief:

Sidney Moncrief - 4 (trex_8063, Outside, dhsilv2, penbeast0)
Grant Hill - 2 (JordansBulls, pandrade83)


If your name isn't shown here^^^, please state your pick between these two with reasons why. We'll conclude the runoff in ~24, or possibly sooner if it looks like it's going no where like the last one (so don't wait till the last minute).


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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #71: RUNOFF! Moncrief vs Hill 

Post#33 » by dhsilv2 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:41 pm

Back to Webber's defense, I know he got some criticisms over time, but as I pointed out in the prior thread, it seemed when he missed significant games or left teams, the team's defensive rating consistently went down. While on the kings they were among the best defenses in the league despite imo a poor defender at point guard and Peja imo at least wasn't that good. Now they had some good defensive pieces so it wasn't all time.

As for him not wanting to bang down low, that might be true, but have we not moved passed how good a man defender someone was? He blocked a decent number of shots (which again is rarely for anyone going to mostly be on their man) and he also had a fairly high steal rate. Webber was imo at least a great help defender which imo more than makes up for any other short comings.

Playoffs are always tricky, but Hill not winning series make is rather hard to put a lot of value if any on those. I do believe that Webber was the piece that made the Kings capable of winning a title. Though certainly he had some free throw shooting issues along with some poor series. Though just a quick glance, it doesn't look like in the series he was eliminated that he under performed. 02 it looks like he struggled more in the first round vs the jazz than vs the lakers.

As for Hill, and why the suns days hurt him a bit for me isn't that those weren't quality years. I do recall watching them and while his defense was certainly a net value add, I really wouldn't go much further than that. What hurts him for me is that I had a perception of Hill as a great play maker on the pistons. Knowing what I know how about the style of play he used, I have personally downgraded the quality of that peak a bit. I personally don't see much value at all in his suns days. If the comparison for me were in need of a tie breaker, sure Hill's post peak absolutely would push him over the top with Webber.

That said if both stats were always "right" I'd much sooner vote on VORP than WS where peaks matter much more than longevity which to me adds very little unless it's at that allstar level or the player becomes an exceptionally valuable contributor to a playoff team.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #71: RUNOFF! Moncrief vs Hill 

Post#34 » by Owly » Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:07 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:Back to Webber's defense, I know he got some criticisms over time, but as I pointed out in the prior thread, it seemed when he missed significant games or left teams, the team's defensive rating consistently went down. While on the kings they were among the best defenses in the league despite imo a poor defender at point guard and Peja imo at least wasn't that good. Now they had some good defensive pieces so it wasn't all time.

As for him not wanting to bang down low, that might be true, but have we not moved passed how good a man defender someone was? He blocked a decent number of shots (which again is rarely for anyone going to mostly be on their man) and he also had a fairly high steal rate. Webber was imo at least a great help defender which imo more than makes up for any other short comings.

Playoffs are always tricky, but Hill not winning series make is rather hard to put a lot of value if any on those. I do believe that Webber was the piece that made the Kings capable of winning a title. Though certainly he had some free throw shooting issues along with some poor series. Though just a quick glance, it doesn't look like in the series he was eliminated that he under performed. 02 it looks like he struggled more in the first round vs the jazz than vs the lakers.

As for Hill, and why the suns days hurt him a bit for me isn't that those weren't quality years. I do recall watching them and while his defense was certainly a net value add, I really wouldn't go much further than that. What hurts him for me is that I had a perception of Hill as a great play maker on the pistons. Knowing what I know how about the style of play he used, I have personally downgraded the quality of that peak a bit. I personally don't see much value at all in his suns days. If the comparison for me were in need of a tie breaker, sure Hill's post peak absolutely would push him over the top with Webber.

That said if both stats were always "right" I'd much sooner vote on VORP than WS where peaks matter much more than longevity which to me adds very little unless it's at that allstar level or the player becomes an exceptionally valuable contributor to a playoff team.

I think it's false to state that whenever he missed time or left teams the defense went down. I think when he went down in '95 it's far from clearly the case that the team were worse - at least overall. Ditto the WoWY stuff for '02-'04 (and they're only only a small amount better overall in '01). I'd be willing to acknowledge that it's possible that defenses worsened but offenses improved without him (or vice-versa), but that doesn't change the net impact picture. I'd also acknowledge (indeed have done so) that RAPM offers a more positive view for some of this span, though even then perhaps not an elite player overall. I don't think that "consistently" down is supportable (or, per the above, if it is, then it would necessarily also be the case he was dragging down offenses, which seems unlikely).

Do you not see a problem in the logic for the latter two bolds. Hill lost so there's no value. Webber [you argue] wasn't at fault in losses (was Hill? - unless you put large weight on 2000 where Hill has publicly questioned the Pistons' medical staff - Hill's Detroit playoff numbers are fine, albeit small samples) so somehow playing badly in the former rounds doesn't matter ... That's exclusively a measure of teammate quality. If playing poorly and going through isn't a negative then what you're ranking isn't anything to do with player performance. Why does Webber apparently playing well in loses matter but not for Which if you're rating historical importance is kind of fine (though even those sort of narrative driven rankings would tend somewhat anti-Webber as he was considered "unclutch", though they probably like him as a "star").

On Man-D versus help: Yes in a big help D is more important (though I don't think you can just write off man D). The impact is ultimately what's important and that brings us to the ultimate point ...

... the best case for Webber as a quite good defender, RAPM (a positive defensive impact of 2.4 points per 100 possessions in 2001, on RAPMstats NPI), suggests inconsistency and a net impact never in the top 20. I think Engellman's actual RAPM numbers place him a little better and more consistently positive on D (but peaking circa 14). And the RAPM stuff (assuming ignoring other issues like WoWY) would I think have him clearly behind say, an Elton Brand (and perhaps other defensively impactful forwards). So whilst as I say, I welcome new evidence, and I've moved a little more favourable on Webber as a defender, I don't think there's been anything that puts him in the conversation yet.

On value above ... I think most are with you that, comparing players at this level you still want a high bar rather than something that rewards longevity for it's own sake, and indeed this was reflected in our results last time this project was done.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #71: RUNOFF! Moncrief vs Hill 

Post#35 » by dhsilv2 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 5:20 pm

Owly wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:Back to Webber's defense, I know he got some criticisms over time, but as I pointed out in the prior thread, it seemed when he missed significant games or left teams, the team's defensive rating consistently went down. While on the kings they were among the best defenses in the league despite imo a poor defender at point guard and Peja imo at least wasn't that good. Now they had some good defensive pieces so it wasn't all time.

As for him not wanting to bang down low, that might be true, but have we not moved passed how good a man defender someone was? He blocked a decent number of shots (which again is rarely for anyone going to mostly be on their man) and he also had a fairly high steal rate. Webber was imo at least a great help defender which imo more than makes up for any other short comings.

Playoffs are always tricky, but Hill not winning series make is rather hard to put a lot of value if any on those. I do believe that Webber was the piece that made the Kings capable of winning a title. Though certainly he had some free throw shooting issues along with some poor series. Though just a quick glance, it doesn't look like in the series he was eliminated that he under performed. 02 it looks like he struggled more in the first round vs the jazz than vs the lakers.

As for Hill, and why the suns days hurt him a bit for me isn't that those weren't quality years. I do recall watching them and while his defense was certainly a net value add, I really wouldn't go much further than that. What hurts him for me is that I had a perception of Hill as a great play maker on the pistons. Knowing what I know how about the style of play he used, I have personally downgraded the quality of that peak a bit. I personally don't see much value at all in his suns days. If the comparison for me were in need of a tie breaker, sure Hill's post peak absolutely would push him over the top with Webber.

That said if both stats were always "right" I'd much sooner vote on VORP than WS where peaks matter much more than longevity which to me adds very little unless it's at that allstar level or the player becomes an exceptionally valuable contributor to a playoff team.

I think it's false to state that whenever he missed time or left teams the defense went down. I think when he went down in '95 it's far from clearly the case that the team were worse - at least overall. Ditto the WoWY stuff for '02-'04 (and they're only only a small amount better overall in '01). I'd be willing to acknowledge that it's possible that defenses worsened but offenses improved without him (or vice-versa), but that doesn't change the net impact picture. I'd also acknowledge (indeed have done so) that RAPM offers a more positive view for some of this span, though even then perhaps not an elite player overall. I don't think that "consistently" down is supportable (or, per the above, if it is, then it would necessarily also be the case he was dragging down offenses, which seems unlikely).

Do you not see a problem in the logic for the latter two bolds. Hill lost so there's no value. Webber [you argue] wasn't at fault in losses (was Hill? - unless you put large weight on 2000 where Hill has publicly questioned the Pistons' medical staff - Hill's Detroit playoff numbers are fine, albeit small samples) so somehow playing badly in the former rounds doesn't matter ... That's exclusively a measure of teammate quality. If playing poorly and going through isn't a negative then what you're ranking isn't anything to do with player performance. Why does Webber apparently playing well in loses matter but not for Which if you're rating historical importance is kind of fine (though even those sort of narrative driven rankings would tend somewhat anti-Webber as he was considered "unclutch", though they probably like him as a "star").

On Man-D versus help: Yes in a big help D is more important (though I don't think you can just write off man D). The impact is ultimately what's important and that brings us to the ultimate point ...

... the best case for Webber as a quite good defender, RAPM (a positive defensive impact of 2.4 points per 100 possessions in 2001, on RAPMstats NPI), suggests inconsistency and a net impact never in the top 20. I think Engellman's actual RAPM numbers place him a little better and more consistently positive on D (but peaking circa 14). And the RAPM stuff (assuming ignoring other issues like WoWY) would I think have him clearly behind say, an Elton Brand (and perhaps other defensively impactful forwards). So whilst as I say, I welcome new evidence, and I've moved a little more favourable on Webber as a defender, I don't think there's been anything that puts him in the conversation yet.

On value above ... I think most are with you that, comparing players at this level you still want a high bar rather than something that rewards longevity for it's own sake, and indeed this was reflected in our results last time this project was done.


My case for Webber is primarily defensive, as I have stated already i think he was allowed to shoot too much. i don't know if this is on his coaches though. RAPM seems to somewhat back this case up over the years I have looked at. I could see a reason for the kings to be better without him offensively, the big reason being Peja shooting more (but again I wonder if coaches would understand this at the time). I think a lot of big men, especially 4's have gotten criticized in this ranking for being a bit lack luster in TS% terms but scoring a lot. This to me is rather clearly the result of the older era post up big man driven offenses that didn't work.

In the post I made in the other thread I went year by year and looked for large games missed samples and just defensive rating for his teams. Consistently there was a drop in league ranking defensively.

As for the playoffs, there's absolutely some mixed data here with their playoff play. The thing is, winning even if you're not the cause adds value to a career. Perhaps you choose to filter that out, but "how" one does that becomes extremely subjective. My focus was on play in elimination series to see if Webber should get the blame for losses or if he was filling up the stat sheets against weak teams. It did not look like that was the case with Webber.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #71: RUNOFF! Moncrief vs Hill 

Post#36 » by trex_8063 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:43 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:Back to Webber's defense, I know he got some criticisms over time, but as I pointed out in the prior thread, it seemed when he missed significant games or left teams, the team's defensive rating consistently went down. While on the kings they were among the best defenses in the league despite imo a poor defender at point guard and Peja imo at least wasn't that good. Now they had some good defensive pieces so it wasn't all time.


Divac was a widely underrated defensive center, imo, and was present in Sacramento all thru their elite seasons.
Doug Christie was probably one of the best perimeter defenders of his generation, present in Sacramento '01 thru part of '05 season. Bobby Jackson was a good perimeter defender, too (present in Sacramento '01-'05).
Scot Pollard was largely a defensive role player (present in Sacramento '99-'03).
Keon Clark was another defensive role player (on the Kings during '03).

Not suggesting Webber might not have been a contributor to their good defenses, but obviously there were quite a few pieces contributing to why they were good on defense; and Webber likely wasn't the most important piece. Also worth noting that arguably the defensive factor he can influence the most from the PF position is DREB%; and that was something the Kings were generally NOT good at: 22nd/29 in '01, 11th/29 in '02, 21st/29 in '03.


Regarding team DRtg's consistently getting worse when he left or missed games.......that's not exactly true:

'99 Bullets rDRTG gets worse by +2.0 upon Webber's departure, and he is indeed the only major roster change. So that's certainly a point in his favor.
The '99 Kings rDRTG gets better by -1.0 upon his arrival. However, he wasn't the only roster change; in fact, there was a lot of shake-up: they got rid of Mitch Richmond, Billy Owens, Olden Polynice, Anthony Johnson, and aging Otis Thorpe. And in addition to Webber, they also added Peja, Divac, Jason Williams, and aging Vernon Maxwell, also new coach Rick Adelman. So really, there's probably too much noise to award much credit to individuals there; certainly can't be taken as a point against his defensive presence, though.

In '00 he missed 7 games. Tiny sample size, but fwiw they were a 103.5 DRtg without him, 102.0 DRtg with him (-1.5 improvement associated with him). Their ORtg was marginally better (+0.9) with him, too.

In '01 he missed 12 games, and their defense was quite a bit better with him: 99.1 DRtg with him, 102.8 (+3.7) DRtg without him. Worth noting that their ORtg was worse (-2.8) with him than without him, though.

In '02 we have a pretty good sample size, with Webber missing 28 games. Their DRtg was worse by +1.2 with Webber. Their ORtg was +3.6 with him, though. Not sure if these two seasons ('01 and '02)----where a substantial improvement on offense seems to come with a substantial decline on defense, and vice versa----reflects that he must preferentially focus his energies on one side of the ball at the expense of the other side???

In '03 he missed 15 games. Their DRtg was better by -2.4 without him. The ORtg was better with him, but only by +0.7.


More wrt his defense by way of scouting report......
I was watching a bit of this game:


.....I'll grade some defensive possessions on a scale of "poor", "fair/adequate", "good", or "excellent" (may occasionally reserve a grade of "atrocious" for especially bad plays), ignoring most plays he's not much involved with (assume "adequate" defense on those):

0:36 - Not sure how to grade his pnp defense here. His "help" on Nash is pretty weak/meaningless; however, one does obviously have to respect Dirk on the perimeter, and he keeps him shaded.
Grade: I suppose "Fair/Adequate" is appropriate here.

1:55 - Shades Nash to the sideline off the high screen; wouldn't have been able to recover to Dirk in time, but luckily Christie's got his back, rotating over. Webber doesn't recover Christie's man (Finley) on the weak side, rather just wanders to the paint/middle as the shot goes up. Does get the defensive rebound, though was frankly lucky it didn't bounce toward the weakside (where Finley was all alone).
Grade: "Fair/Adequate" overall (could argue it's somewhere between "Poor" and "Fair").

2:25 - After the offensive rebound and kick-out to Dirk (Webber's man), he's utterly lazy moving his feet (makes a very lame/lackadaisical gamble for a steal) allowing Dirk to literally blow right by him; Divac is forced to help, leaving LaFrenz wide open for a dunk on the nice dish from Nowitzki.
Grade: very obviously "Poor".
***NOTE: note the commentators talking about how the Kings don't want Webber on Nowitzki, and stating how they're going to miss Peja [injured] on defense (they even joke about how often you'll hear that statement), because Peja does a better job guarding Dirk.

2:58 - Very next possession, Webber again somewhat lazy moving his feet and gets beat off the dribble in isolation by Nowitzki (he could have contested more physically on the shot, too). Nice help D at the rim by Divac saves him from getting scored on, and Divac secures the board.
Grade: Poor.

3:15 - Next possession, off the Dallas steal, he's a bit lazy hustling back in the transition D, allowing a brief "3-on-2" break (luckily Dirk misses the wide open 13' jumper).
Grade: Poor.

(4:25 - Webber's not really involved on this possession and doesn't do anything wrong, but I wanted to just point out how well Divac hedges off the pnr ball-handler, despite not having good lateral quickness)

5:34 - Cagey help defense on Dirk's baseline shot (might have even got a piece of it).
Grade: Good (though it's worth noting that at this stage of the game the Kings are "hiding" Webber defensively on Greg Buckner, and having Hedo Turkoglu guard Dirk--->it's consistent over the next few possessions, not just a switch or something).

6:40 - Nothing bad comes of it (luckily), but Webber utterly loses track of Finley in the corner and just sort of wanders into the paint area (I'm not sure if some of his bigger rebounding rates didn't come in this manner: at the expense of defense). If Van Exel had better vision, he could have found Finley for a wide open corner trey.
Grade: Poor.

7:20 - Again, note Webber is being "hidden" on Greg Buckner (Hedo guarding Dirk). Ball goes to Dirk on the baseline/elbow, and Webber completely loses track of Buckner, who cuts back-door, gets the easy bucket on the assist from Dirk. What is Webber doing here? He doesn't actually double-team Dirk, and he gets completely burned by Greg Buckner of all people. Literally the only thing possibly accomplished by what he was doing was discouraging Dirk from driving to the middle. He otherwise basically left his team defending 4 against 5.
Grade: obviously Poor (possibly even deserving of the aforementioned "Atrocious" grade).

11:55 - Note once again Webber is being hidden defensively, this time guarding Eduardo Najera. He doesn't do anything overtly poor here, but I did want to point out kinda weak box-outs. It's possibly illuminating (in light of all the criticisms that he "doesn't like to bang down low") that even someone of Najera's size appears able to push him around a little bit down low.
Grade: Fair/Adequate (to maybe slightly Poor).

14:08 - Webber is now being hidden on Adrian Griffin (at this point the Kings are quite blatantly hiding him on whomever happens to be the weakest offensive threat that the Mavs have on the court). He plays this possession adequately, though: doesn't contest Nash, but at least shades the play well enough to force a 20-foot pull-up, and then gets a nice box-out on Griffin.
Grade: Fair/Adequate (maybe even edging slightly toward "Good").
*****NOTE: Again perhaps telling of this criticism of not liking to bang down low--->we see on the following offensive possession Webber essentially fails to get an adequate post-up on Michael Finley (an obvious mis-match), who is also able on the box-out to push him out to ~15' from the hoop.

14:50 - Doug Christie comes over and picks off the attempted pass to a cutting LaFrenz, but Webber did see the play coming and had already rotated to help should the pass have been completed.
Grade: Good.

15:10 - Does a decent job cutting off the penetration by Adrian Griffin (though again: it's Adrian Griffin). Later in the play, though Griffin makes the shot, Webber did an OK job closing out on the shooter.
Grade: Fair/Adequate.

15:45 - Webber, doesn't move his feet whatsoever, and again gets smoked by Dirk on the drive. And from a mental error standpoint [aside from the lazy effort on moving his feet], he also appears to overplay the middle (and allowing the baseline), which is a mental error because Turkoglu is standing right there in the way of any drive toward the middle.
Grade: Poor (obviously).

16:40 - Kinda lazy coming back on defense, for a second effectively allows a 5-on-4 in the halfcourt; at any rate allows LaFrenz to slip underneath into rebounding position (it's actually Dirk who gets the offensive rebound, though). He finds himself on Dirk after the OReb, and then on the subsequent shot allows Dirk to get inside position for the rebound (didn't matter, as the shot was made anyway, but still).
Grade: Poor.

19:00 - NOTE: Again note Divac's ability to hedge the pnr ball-handler, despite his poor lateral quickness. Guy was a really savvy player (on both ends). Webber's not much involved in this play, though he has rotated over to the rolling Shawn Bradley until Divac can recover (after hedging Nash), and he's still there to play the passing lane and/or contest the shot had the ball been kicked to LaFrenz in the corner.
Grade: Fair-to-Good.

20:10 - It's his man who gets the open 15-footer here, but I don't consider this a bad possession. He'd sort of semi-rotated momentarily to help on a cutting Greg Buckner near the baseline, and then got an OK box-out on Shawn Bradley (whom Divac had left, also to help on the Buckner); Divac was in the better position to rotate out and contest LaFrenz.
Grade: Fair/Adequate.

21:35 - Webber double-teams on Greg Buckner......which might seem like a bit of a wtf move, but probably is reasonable in this instance, since Buckner had the ball in the post against the much smaller Mike Bibby. Webber's double-team is sort of weaksauce, however, and as often appears the case [in this game, at least] his movement toward recovering his man [or someone's man] is sort of slow/lackadaisical. He actually recovers Shawn Bradley (Divac's man) because Bradley was closer, leaving Divac to recover LaFrenz (and without much communication, as far as I can tell, though obv I could be wrong; can't hear everything they say or don't say on the court); Divac is smart enough to quickly recognize and respond, though. Generally speaking, fwiw, Divac is MUCH more active defensively than Webber.
Grade: Fair/Adequate.

22:50 - You can see Webber once again completely loses track of his man (LaFrenz) who slips back-door on him. Nothing comes of it (other than LaFrenz would have had inside position had the shot been missed), but obviously this is a bad play.
Grade: Poor.

24:15 - Reasonable hustle back on defense, and contests the buzzer-beater play.
Grade: Good (or at least Fair-to-Good).



And that just covers part of a single half of basketball (this is not the FULL game), but already no fewer than 8 "Poor" defensive possessions for Webber (including one that might even be the dreaded "Atrocious"); only 3-4 "Good" plays to counter-balance that, with the rest being merely "adequate".
Now I'm not trying to draw far-reaching conclusions about Webber's defense [that it's bad] throughout his prime, based on what happened in a single half of a single game. However, this is perhaps illustrative of a criticism penbeast0 had made: that his defense was, at best, inconsistent.
He's certainly capable of good defense, and occasionally shows it. But as is seen in this game, there are more than a handful of defensive possessions where he clearly just does not give a crap; he's just biding his time until they're back on offense.

I'll save further discussion about Webber for future threads.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #71: RUNOFF! Moncrief vs Hill 

Post#37 » by dhsilv2 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:58 pm

A lot here, but one point I want to address rather quickly. Yes, he had good defenders mixed in with weak ones. That said Vlade as a center was not helping the defensive rebounding side either.

I'll review the game at home. An interesting team for the review since those mavs were an offensive power house with no defense.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #71: RUNOFF! Moncrief vs Hill 

Post#38 » by trex_8063 » Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:43 pm

Thru post #37:

Sidney Moncrief - 4 (trex_8063, Outside, dhsilv2, penbeast0)
Grant Hill - 2 (JordansBulls, pandrade83)


Well, this runoff appears to be going nowhere, so I'm gonna call it a little early for Moncrief so we can move on (maybe continue the discussion about Webber, or others [Parker, perhaps???]). Will have the next up in a moment.

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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #71 

Post#39 » by DoItALL9 » Fri Jan 12, 2018 6:06 am

To someone who watched him in his prime and was pretty aware of all players throughout the league is Jimmy Butler today a good comparison to Sidney Moncrief? Style? Tenacity? Sometime pg? Close to elite but not quite mentioned w/ rare air types?

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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #71 

Post#40 » by trex_8063 » Fri Jan 12, 2018 8:13 pm

DoItALL9 wrote:To someone who watched him I hid prime and was pretty aware of all players throughout the league is Jimmy Butler today a good comparison to Sidney Moncrief? Style? Tenacity? Sometime pg? Close to elite but not quite mentioned w/ rare air types?

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Off the cuff I can't think of a better modern comparison, so yeah, that seems fairly close.
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