The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1

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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#21 » by Dr Spaceman » Wed Feb 27, 2019 12:14 pm

No-more-rings wrote:
sp6r=underrated wrote:
I'll put it to you this way outside of Lebron and Jordan he's the best player I've seen in his prime.

:o

I’m going to assume you didn’t watch 70s or 80s ball then, which is fine because most people here either weren’t alive or too young to remember.

But outside of that i don’t see the argument for him being better than recently retired legends like Duncan or KG. Then when you throw in all the debatable recent guys like Curry, KD, Wade, Dirk, Harden etc.

I feel like we can celebrate a player’s greatness without going overboard like that.


I dont think it’s a crazy thing to say. I mean the plus/minus data we have suggests he’s at least in the same tier as Lebron.

Just looking at his rankings in RPM:
2014 2nd (Lebron first)
2015 7th
2016 3rd (Lebron first, Draymond 2)
2017 2nd (Lebron first)
2018 1st (Lebron 12th)

Say what you will about RPM but all impact metrics are in agreement. CP3 is a notch below late-prime Lebron.
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#22 » by No-more-rings » Wed Feb 27, 2019 1:30 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:
No-more-rings wrote:
sp6r=underrated wrote:
I'll put it to you this way outside of Lebron and Jordan he's the best player I've seen in his prime.

:o

I’m going to assume you didn’t watch 70s or 80s ball then, which is fine because most people here either weren’t alive or too young to remember.

But outside of that i don’t see the argument for him being better than recently retired legends like Duncan or KG. Then when you throw in all the debatable recent guys like Curry, KD, Wade, Dirk, Harden etc.

I feel like we can celebrate a player’s greatness without going overboard like that.


I dont think it’s a crazy thing to say. I mean the plus/minus data we have suggests he’s at least in the same tier as Lebron.

Just looking at his rankings in RPM:
2014 2nd (Lebron first)
2015 7th
2016 3rd (Lebron first, Draymond 2)
2017 2nd (Lebron first)
2018 1st (Lebron 12th)

Say what you will about RPM but all impact metrics are in agreement. CP3 is a notch below late-prime Lebron.

RAPM from similar years.

2011- 7th
2012- 7th
2013- 11th
2014- 3rd
2015- 15th
2016- 9th
2017- 2nd
2018- 5th

Paints a little different picture. He was pretty good typically, but nothing about it says he’s the 2nd best player since Jordan. If “impact” things are the route you are trying to go.

Also, people should really stop throwing these types of things around like it’s gospel, impact stats do not measure greatness.
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#23 » by eminence » Wed Feb 27, 2019 3:38 pm

Yeah, I'm not sure I'd agree with impact stats putting CP3 in that very top tier. He's up there for sure, but I'd say a clear bit short of the top, I guess if you were down on KG and on playoff importance but still very high on impact metrics you could argue him for having the #2 prime of the impact era ('97 to current), but it'd be very much a 2nd among equals type.

As an exmaple he's 5th in Daniel Meyer's longterm ('97-'17) Bayesian RAPM

LeBron 8.7
KG 7.4
Duncan 6.8
Manu 6.5
CP3 6.1
Dirk 6.0
Dray 5.8
etc

ElGee ranked him as his 19th (yikes) best playoff performer by his AuPM metric.
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#24 » by No-more-rings » Wed Feb 27, 2019 5:10 pm

Colbinii wrote:
No-more-rings wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
CP3 had a peak that is almost unanimously top 30, and many people have him top 20 [easily]. Saying he is going overboard with a guy who you can debate into top 10/15 all-time peak isn't really overboard.

One of the best posters here and friend Bad Gatorade has made some tremendous posts about CP3's impact. I've tracked impact data since 1997 and he is in the Tier S with LeBron/Garnett in that regard [and since 1997, those 3 are the only players in the top tier, quite comfortably] by many measures within the impact family...

CP3 vs Wade Clutch Stats through 2016 [Missing 2 prime years of CP3], courtesy of

Wade
RS - 1297 PTS (TS 53.2%)
PO - 227 PTS (TS 52.0%)
After 2009, his RS clutch stats look pathetic - 51.4%. His 2006 season (his peak IMO) has 60.0 regular, 58.3 playoff TS%). Compared to his overall stats (TS 56.2% and 55.2% in RS and PO respectively), his clutch shooting is really poor, although it was quite good early in his career.

CP3
RS - 1160 PTS (58.0%)
PO - 69 (58.3%)
His overall stats - RS 57.8% and PO 58.4%.
His PO scoring arguably isn't as good as his RS scoring thanks to volume, but percentage wise, he's elite, and it's shown that he's one of the premier guys in the league at both scoring and assisting in the clutch through some other stats.

Career wise, against opponents with a top 10 record, Wade has a USG% of 32 and a TS of 0.532, and 31.7/0.585 against bottom 10 opponents. CP3 is at 24.5 and 0.565 for elite opponents, and 0.593 and 23.4 for bottom 10 opponents.

CP3 has a PER of 25.3/27.4 vs top 10 and bottom 10 opponents, Wade is at 22.6/26.8 respectively. Wade's change vs poor opponents and in the clutch is MUCH more pronounced than it is for CP3.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

I know Gatorade had some great posts in past CP3 threads which I can't find at the moment, but judging by everything minus those things Robert Kraft lost to Vladamir Putin, CP3 passes the following tests as an all-time great: the eye test, basic stats test, advanced stats test, impact stats test, clutch stats test, and most importantly: he is one of my favorite players.

Saying his peak is top 10-15(which would be generous) isn’t the same as saying his prime was top 3 for players he’s watched, which since Mj’s name was mentioned i’d have to assume includes everyone from 90s on up. That’s a really huge statement to make. Seems kind of dismissive of a lot of great players too since it was said with such confidence.

As for the other part, I don’t really know what to make of those numbers off the bat. I don’t know what’s considered “clutch time” or how a Cp3 vs Wade in clutch has really anything to do with what i said. I don’t believe clutch numbers mean a lot without context, but I don’t discredit work that was done on that.

Give CP3 a team like Magic had around him and he is held in the same regard as Magic.

Food for thought, what makes Magic much better than CP3?

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Purely speculative.

What makes Magic better is size which allows for more versatility and rebounding, and even better vision due to height(though i get Paul is one of the best passers all time). A lot of that won’t show up in the stat sheet but it’s a real tangible thing. And oh yeah durability. Paul is of course better defensively but it’s probably not as valuable when you consider Magic can’t be posted up by bigger guards or forwards like Paul could.
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#25 » by Colbinii » Wed Feb 27, 2019 5:20 pm

No-more-rings wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
No-more-rings wrote:Saying his peak is top 10-15(which would be generous) isn’t the same as saying his prime was top 3 for players he’s watched, which since Mj’s name was mentioned i’d have to assume includes everyone from 90s on up. That’s a really huge statement to make. Seems kind of dismissive of a lot of great players too since it was said with such confidence.

As for the other part, I don’t really know what to make of those numbers off the bat. I don’t know what’s considered “clutch time” or how a Cp3 vs Wade in clutch has really anything to do with what i said. I don’t believe clutch numbers mean a lot without context, but I don’t discredit work that was done on that.

Give CP3 a team like Magic had around him and he is held in the same regard as Magic.

Food for thought, what makes Magic much better than CP3?

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

Purely speculative.

What makes Magic better is size which allows for more versatility and rebounding, and even better vision due to height(though i get Paul is one of the best passers all time). A lot of that won’t show up in the stat sheet but it’s a real tangible thing. And oh yeah durability. Paul is of course better defensively but it’s probably not as valuable when you consider Magic can’t be posted up by bigger guards or forwards like Paul could.

Paul is a great post defender for a guard. He is so much better defensively that you aren't even being fair by saying "its equal because Magic cant be posted up".

Sid the Kid is one of the best defensive Guards of all time and he was small.

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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#26 » by No-more-rings » Wed Feb 27, 2019 5:21 pm

Dr Spaceman wrote:
No-more-rings wrote:
Dr Spaceman wrote:Amazing post man. So glad to see Paul get the love he deserves. I’ve said before I think his 08-18 run is one of the five best ten year stretches in NBA history and I stand by it.

This feels like a really “out there” type of opinion to me. For 10 year stretch

No case against:

Lebron, Duncan, KG, Kareem, Wilt, Russell, Hakeem, Shaq

Weak case against: Magic, Bird, K Malone, Kobe

Some case, but still not clear cut:

Drob, Wade, KD, Dr J, West, etc list could go on

I generously didn’t include Mj because of the retirement but I probably should’ve anyways since Cp3 was injury prone and missed a ton of time anyway.


As time passes people have a tendency to gloss over the fluctuations in year-to-year play and paint a player’s whole career with the same brush. From 1996-1999 Shaq for example finished 9th, 9th, 4th and 6th in MVP voting. No one was thinking of him as a future “most dominant ever” candidate during these years and it’s mpossible to make a ten year stretch that doesn’t include these. In his later prime he had many issues with weight, conditioning, injuries etc. And we’ve seen that Paul in his late prime with a talent on Kobe’s level can absolutely lead a team as dominant as that Lakers squad as we did last year.

Wilt’s myriad issues in his career have been well-documented. There’s plenty of good reading material on them on these boards. Wilt had mind-boggling year to year fluctuations in on court impact during his prime and for most of his career was more focused on other interests than performance on the basketball court.

Hakeem has some lost years in there as well especially the early 90s when he was kind of known for being a headcase and had some curious drop offs in defensive efficacy. It’s again a case where a dominant peak overwrites a more inconsistent career.

If it seems like I’m picking nits that’s because I am. It’s what you have to do when comparing the best of the best and I do believe Paul is in that level.

I agree people gloss over fluctuations in play over a career but we shouldn’t act like this ain’t the case for almost everyone. Lerbon had some bizarre years like 2011 and 2015 for example, Paul had some less than stellar seasons in there himself where his regular season wasn’t up to par(2011), or 2012 where he wasn’t very good in the playoffs. The backpicks thing by Elgee, had Paul as being consistently pretty good but none of those seasons as historically great and that matters if we’re talking it to “top 5 10-year stretch ever”.

The things about Wilt and Hakeem’s head issues is purely narrative and not based on anything tangible. Even in a headcase year why can we conclude that they still didn’t have at least as much impact as Paul did in an average year? If we’re taking it to hearsay, i can bring up how the narrative is that a lot of Clipper guys didn’t like playing with Paul and other antics like him taking a “secret tunnel to the Clippers” locker room.

Not to rain on Paul’s parade here but when people run around making strong dubious statements like yins are here, i think i have a right to question/debate it.
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#27 » by No-more-rings » Wed Feb 27, 2019 5:25 pm

Colbinii wrote:
No-more-rings wrote:
Colbinii wrote:Give CP3 a team like Magic had around him and he is held in the same regard as Magic.

Food for thought, what makes Magic much better than CP3?

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

Purely speculative.

What makes Magic better is size which allows for more versatility and rebounding, and even better vision due to height(though i get Paul is one of the best passers all time). A lot of that won’t show up in the stat sheet but it’s a real tangible thing. And oh yeah durability. Paul is of course better defensively but it’s probably not as valuable when you consider Magic can’t be posted up by bigger guards or forwards like Paul could.

Paul is a great post defender for a guard. He is so much better defensively that you aren't even being fair by saying "its equal because Magic cant be posted up".

Sid the Kid is one of the best defensive Guards of all time and he was small.

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I’m not saying it’s equal, it just lowers the gap is all.

I don’t think i’ll go much further with this because i’m going to start looking like the bad guy within another post or 2.
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#28 » by Colbinii » Wed Feb 27, 2019 5:33 pm

No-more-rings wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
No-more-rings wrote:Purely speculative.

What makes Magic better is size which allows for more versatility and rebounding, and even better vision due to height(though i get Paul is one of the best passers all time). A lot of that won’t show up in the stat sheet but it’s a real tangible thing. And oh yeah durability. Paul is of course better defensively but it’s probably not as valuable when you consider Magic can’t be posted up by bigger guards or forwards like Paul could.

Paul is a great post defender for a guard. He is so much better defensively that you aren't even being fair by saying "its equal because Magic cant be posted up".

Sid the Kid is one of the best defensive Guards of all time and he was small.

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

I’m not saying it’s equal, it just lowers the gap is all.

I don’t think i’ll go much further with this because i’m going to start looking like the bad guy within another post or 2.

Why would you look like the bad guy?

I think we agree that there is not much separation between Magic and CP3? If that's the case then why is it laughable that the other poster said he is a top 3 player he has ever watched?

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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#29 » by Dr Spaceman » Wed Feb 27, 2019 6:03 pm

No-more-rings wrote:
Dr Spaceman wrote:
No-more-rings wrote:This feels like a really “out there” type of opinion to me. For 10 year stretch

No case against:

Lebron, Duncan, KG, Kareem, Wilt, Russell, Hakeem, Shaq

Weak case against: Magic, Bird, K Malone, Kobe

Some case, but still not clear cut:

Drob, Wade, KD, Dr J, West, etc list could go on

I generously didn’t include Mj because of the retirement but I probably should’ve anyways since Cp3 was injury prone and missed a ton of time anyway.


As time passes people have a tendency to gloss over the fluctuations in year-to-year play and paint a player’s whole career with the same brush. From 1996-1999 Shaq for example finished 9th, 9th, 4th and 6th in MVP voting. No one was thinking of him as a future “most dominant ever” candidate during these years and it’s mpossible to make a ten year stretch that doesn’t include these. In his later prime he had many issues with weight, conditioning, injuries etc. And we’ve seen that Paul in his late prime with a talent on Kobe’s level can absolutely lead a team as dominant as that Lakers squad as we did last year.

Wilt’s myriad issues in his career have been well-documented. There’s plenty of good reading material on them on these boards. Wilt had mind-boggling year to year fluctuations in on court impact during his prime and for most of his career was more focused on other interests than performance on the basketball court.

Hakeem has some lost years in there as well especially the early 90s when he was kind of known for being a headcase and had some curious drop offs in defensive efficacy. It’s again a case where a dominant peak overwrites a more inconsistent career.

If it seems like I’m picking nits that’s because I am. It’s what you have to do when comparing the best of the best and I do believe Paul is in that level.

I agree people gloss over fluctuations in play over a career but we shouldn’t act like this ain’t the case for almost everyone. Lerbon had some bizarre years like 2011 and 2015 for example, Paul had some less than stellar seasons in there himself where his regular season wasn’t up to par(2011), or 2012 where he wasn’t very good in the playoffs. The backpicks thing by Elgee, had Paul as being consistently pretty good but none of those seasons as historically great and that matters if we’re talking it to “top 5 10-year stretch ever”.

The things about Wilt and Hakeem’s head issues is purely narrative and not based on anything tangible. Even in a headcase year why can we conclude that they still didn’t have at least as much impact as Paul did in an average year? If we’re taking it to hearsay, i can bring up how the narrative is that a lot of Clipper guys didn’t like playing with Paul and other antics like him taking a “secret tunnel to the Clippers” locker room.

Not to rain on Paul’s parade here but when people run around making strong dubious statements like yins are here, i think i have a right to question/debate it.


The Wilt one is pretty easy. 1965 would be the main season I’d point to. After a really solid 48 win season where Wilt was arguably at his peak the Warriors go 9-28 to start the year with Wilt (20 win pace) and go 8-37 the rest of the way (15 win pace) Wilt arrives in PHI where they proceed to go 18-17 with Wilt after going 21-22 without. He literally did not have an impact on either tema he played for that season, and this is kinda scratching the surface of Wilt’s issues. Wilt was a man who very much played hard when he wanted to.
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#30 » by Dr Spaceman » Sun Mar 3, 2019 9:16 am

So just to continue on with the CP3 love train.

Last night I was watching PHI/GSW and immediately PHI breaks out into that off-ball switching defense we saw Houston pioneer last year. Really smart call with no Embiid. Ben Simmons got the primary assignment on Curry, basically playing the CP3 role from last year.

And Simmons did a decent job. But there were so many possessions where the Warriors out-executes him. He’s kind of lose his mental focus after three screens and be unable to get around or forget to call the switch on time. I think the broadcast crew was too hard on him because it’s actually not his job to get over those screens, but it is his job to communicate the switch. Curry had a number of wide open threes when the off-ball screen was not executed correctly.

And it really made me appreciate CP3 even more. In that WCF there were zero miscommunications. Z-E-R-O. His tenacity to fight and claw through every screen and the diligence to call out every other player’s responsibility was truly amazing. There’s no substitute for having a guy like that to quarterback the defense, and for a PG to be the guy to do it is unreal. It was like having KG’a brain out there as the sixth guy on the floor.

I know I talk about that series every day and I’m sure people are sick of hearing it but I truly think that was one of the greatest defensive performances by a guard ever. I think he outplayed Draymond Green defensively in that series and trust me I know how crazy that sounds. I know the playoffs are all about matchups so I don’t wanna go too crazy on his defense overall but man those games will stay with me forever.
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#31 » by Lost92Bricks » Wed Mar 6, 2019 3:41 am

I'm slowly starting to believe they can do it THIS year. Slowly.
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#32 » by bondom34 » Wed Mar 6, 2019 3:43 am

I don't think they can, but he's been good lately (really good most nights). And for as much as I hate watching Houston they're kind of fun when he's running the offense to me, different style and much more flow.
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#33 » by kobe_vs_jordan » Wed Mar 6, 2019 3:48 am

HOU will go as far as Harden takes them.
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#34 » by GSP » Wed Mar 6, 2019 4:04 am

West looks like a 2 team conference against like last year. Dont see anyone threatening the Warriors besides them tho Okc has a punchers chance IMO


Wasabi_Johnson wrote:HOU will go as far as Harden takes them.


Cp3 seems like their most important player against the better teams

Harden fills the boxscore quota and he put up 35/3/3 today while Cp3 had 5/10/6 on 1-10 shooting but no one who watched the games thinks Harden played better
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#35 » by K_chile22 » Wed Mar 6, 2019 4:10 am

CP shot terribly but man he had that bench unit going against one of the best benches in the league. He was awesome
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#36 » by kobe_vs_jordan » Wed Mar 6, 2019 4:22 am

GSP wrote:West looks like a 2 team conference against like last year. Dont see anyone threatening the Warriors besides them tho Okc has a punchers chance IMO


Wasabi_Johnson wrote:HOU will go as far as Harden takes them.


Cp3 seems like their most important player against the better teams

Harden fills the boxscore quota and he put up 35/3/3 today while Cp3 had 5/10/6 on 1-10 shooting but no one who watched the games thinks Harden played better

This not the type of game that makes me think they can beat GSW.

Edit: If CP3 ends up their best player in the playoffs then they will be underdogs against GSW, DEN , and OKC.
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#37 » by GSP » Wed Mar 6, 2019 5:46 am

K_chile22 wrote:CP shot terribly but man he had that bench unit going against one of the best benches in the league. He was awesome


Raptors bench hasn't been good this season though. It's been a weakness for them. And their best bench player in Fvv who usually controls it was out
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#38 » by Dr Spaceman » Wed Mar 6, 2019 6:00 am

After the loss to the Lakers Rockets are 6-0 with a +8 net rating. 118 offense, 110 defense. The defense still concerns me, they’re right around league average, ranking 14th over that stretch. Offense is #2 barely behind Detroit (!) and still #2 over the full season.
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#39 » by Dr Spaceman » Wed Mar 6, 2019 6:10 am

Wasabi_Johnson wrote:
GSP wrote:West looks like a 2 team conference against like last year. Dont see anyone threatening the Warriors besides them tho Okc has a punchers chance IMO


Wasabi_Johnson wrote:HOU will go as far as Harden takes them.


Cp3 seems like their most important player against the better teams

Harden fills the boxscore quota and he put up 35/3/3 today while Cp3 had 5/10/6 on 1-10 shooting but no one who watched the games thinks Harden played better

This not the type of game that makes me think they can beat GSW.

Edit: If CP3 ends up their best player in the playoffs then they will be underdogs against GSW, DEN , and OKC.


It’s always going to look ugly when you play one of the top defenses/teams in the league. Toronto has the best defensive 1-3 in the league and I dont think it’s close.

Chris Paul and Harden are 1a/1b. Very few teams can boast that type of talent. CP3 is one of the 15-25 best players in NBA history, there is absolutely nothing wrong with him being their best guy.
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Re: The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1 

Post#40 » by GSP » Wed Mar 6, 2019 7:30 am

Dr Spaceman wrote:
Wasabi_Johnson wrote:
GSP wrote:West looks like a 2 team conference against like last year. Dont see anyone threatening the Warriors besides them tho Okc has a punchers chance IMO




Cp3 seems like their most important player against the better teams

Harden fills the boxscore quota and he put up 35/3/3 today while Cp3 had 5/10/6 on 1-10 shooting but no one who watched the games thinks Harden played better

This not the type of game that makes me think they can beat GSW.

Edit: If CP3 ends up their best player in the playoffs then they will be underdogs against GSW, DEN , and OKC.


It’s always going to look ugly when you play one of the top defenses/teams in the league. Toronto has the best defensive 1-3 in the league and I dont think it’s close.

Chris Paul and Harden are 1a/1b. Very few teams can boast that type of talent. CP3 is one of the 15-25 best players in NBA history, there is absolutely nothing wrong with him being their best guy.


Do u mean the best defender at each position 1-3 or just collectively? If u mean collectively i think u might as well say 1-4. Siakam is a great defender and clearly been their best defender this year. He did guard Harden more than Kawhi this game too

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