#5 Greatest Defensive PF All-Time: Top 10 Defensively at each position project

[trex_8063]

I’m once again going to provide some categorical ranked comparisons of 18 different candidates (well, 18 including those who’ve already been voted in).

The DVOR (Defensive Value Over Replacement) cited below is NOT to be confused with DVORP (as in something derived from the VORP numbers on bbref). DVOR utilizes DRAPM and minutes played, and attempts to illuminate the defensive value above a replacement level player [set at -0.75 DRAPM] per season in best years, per game in best years, per career, as so forth as indicated in headers.
However, DRAPM only exists for ‘97 and after. I utilized rs APM [on/off stat] combined with shutupandjam’s Estimated Impact [a box-derived figure] defensive split to make an “educated estimate” for DRAPM for ‘94-’96. And then I just used straight Estimated Impact defensive split for years prior to ‘94. I know this isn’t ideal or true apples to apples, but I wanted a means to include older players in all these broad categories.
I’ve looked at a lot of these now, and fwiw I get the feeling the EI defensive split will UNDER-estimate more often than over-estimating. I get the feeling it rated Elvin Hayes pretty fairly, but for many of these players (like Dave DeBusschere, Gus Johnson, Dennis Rodman, or Buck Williams as examples), the splits just don’t look quite right. We even have some supportive evidence to suggest this is the case for player whose career span into the RAPM era [e.g. Buck Williams]. I think for several of these guys EI basically just “evens things out”--->marginally over-rating their offensive imprint while UNDER-rating them defensively. Bobby Jones likely underrated in general by the EI metric, at least based on the early 80's on/off numbers he had for Sixers.
Anyway, bear that grain of salt in mind with the following.
Also…..
*All box-derived metrics are excluding the current ‘19 season.
**ALL seasons have been pro-rated to full 82-game season (for both DVOR and DWS).

All-Defensive Honors “Points” (awarding 1.5 pts for each All-D 1st Team, 1.0 for All-D 2nd)
Tim Duncan - 19.0
Kevin Garnett - 16.5
Bobby Jones - 16.0
Dennis Rodman - 11.5
Dave DeBusschere - 9.0 (*not awarded his first six seasons)
Kevin McHale - 7.5
Paul Silas - 6.0
Karl Malone - 5.5
Draymond Green - 5.5
Buck Williams - 5.0
Horace Grant - 4.0
Larry Nance - 3.5
Gus Johnson - 3.0 (*not awarded his first five seasons)
Charles Oakley - 2.5
Elvin Hayes - 2.0
Paul Millsap - 1.0
Rasheed Wallace - 0
Bo Outlaw - 0

DPOY shares
Draymond Green - 2.047
Dennis Rodman - 2.038
Kevin Garnett - 1.638
Tim Duncan - 1.025
Bobby Jones - 0.146 (*only awarded his final four seasons)
Kevin McHale - 0.064
Bo Outlaw - 0.051
Buck Williams - 0.043 (*not awarded his rookie year)
Horace Grant - 0.037
Paul Millsap - 0.032
Charles Oakley - 0.030
Larry Nance - 0.026 (*not awarded his rookie year)
Rasheed Wallace - 0.022
Karl Malone - 0.010
***Not awarded during the careers of DeBusschere, Johnson, Silas, or any except the final two seasons of Hayes

DWS
Tim Duncan - 106.3
Karl Malone - 92.4
Kevin Garnett - 91.5
Elvin Hayes - 83.7
Charles Oakley - 63.3
Buck Williams - 61.8
Rasheed Wallace - 57.1
Dennis Rodman - 54.5
Paul Silas - 51.8
Horace Grant - 49.3
Dave DeBusschere - 48.0
Larry Nance - 44.6
Bobby Jones - 43.2
Paul Millsap - 39.4
Kevin McHale - 37.1
Bo Outlaw - 29.3
Gus Johnson - 25.4
Draymond Green - 24.5

Career rDRTG
Tim Duncan: -9.5
Dennis Rodman: -7.0
Draymond Green: -7.0
Kevin Garnett: -6.6
Bobby Jones: -5.8
Elvin Hayes: -5.5 (*missing his first five seasons)
Karl Malone: -5.2
Dave DeBusschere: -4.7 (*only available for his final season, though in DD’s case, it’s likely a fairly accurate representation of his career mark)
Rasheed Wallace: -4.5
Charles Oakley: -4.4
Paul Millsap: -4.0
Paul Silas: -3.5 (*only available for his last seven seasons)
Larry Nance: -3.5
Bo Outlaw: -3.4
Buck Williams: -3.3
Horace Grant: -2.0
Kevin McHale: -1.4
**Not available for Gus Johnson’s career

Career DBPM
Tim Duncan: +4.0
Bo Outlaw: +4.0
Draymond Green: +3.8
Kevin Garnett: +3.3
Bobby Jones: +2.9
Dennis Rodman: +2.8
Charles Oakley: +2.3
Larry Nance: +2.3
Paul Millsap: +2.2
Karl Malone: +1.8
Horace Grant: +1.8
Dave DeBusschere: +1.6 (*only available for his final season, though in DD’s case, it’s likely a fairly accurate representation of his career mark)
Rasheed Wallace: +1.5
Elvin Hayes: +1.3 (*missing his first five seasons)
Paul Silas: +1.3 (*only available his last seven seasons)
Buck Williams: +1.3
Kevin McHale: +0.3
**Not available for Gus Johnson’s career

Career Cumulative DVOR
Kevin Garnett - 197,104.8
Tim Duncan - 179,675.5
Rasheed Wallace - 110,512.8
Elvin Hayes - 102,458.6
Horace Grant - 74,632.9
Bo Outlaw - 72,806.7
Karl Malone - 70,363.5
Charles Oakley - 67,043.8
Buck Williams - 63,293.4
Larry Nance - 56,202.55
Dennis Rodman - 50,665.3
Paul Millsap - 50,556.3
Draymond Green - 49,402.7
Bobby Jones - 48,353.1
Dave DeBusschere - 48,191.2
Paul Silas - 43,313.2
Kevin McHale - 28,238.4
Gus Johnson - 21,446.2

Avg DVOR per season (full career)
Tim Duncan - 9,456.6
Kevin Garnett - 9,385.9
Draymond Green - 8,233.8
Rasheed Wallace - 6,950.5
Elvin Hayes - 6,403.7
Bo Outlaw - 4,853.8 (NOTE: his avg is hurt by lingering multiple seasons while barely playing)
Horace Grant - 4,390.2
Larry Nance - 4,323.3
Paul Millsap - 4,213.0
Bobby Jones - 4,029.4
Dave DeBusschere - 4,015.9
Dennis Rodman - 3,808.7
Buck Williams - 3,723.1
Charles Oakley - 3,704.1
Karl Malone - 3,703.3
Paul Silas - 2,707.1
Kevin McHale - 2,172.2
Gus Johnson - 2,144.6

Avg DVOR per season in Best 5 Years
Kevin Garnett - 14,732.0
Tim Duncan - 12,925.1
Rasheed Wallace - 11,628.5
Bo Outlaw - 10,040.2
Draymond Green - 9,721.4
Elvin Hayes - 9,327.8
Horace Grant - 7,394.9
Paul Millsap - 6,396.0
Karl Malone - 6,376.6
Charles Oakley - 6,284.0
Larry Nance - 6,208.4
Dennis Rodman - 5,978.6
Dave DeBusschere - 5,755.6
Buck Williams - 5,612.8
Bobby Jones - 5,347.15
Paul Silas - 4,603.9
Gus Johnson - 3,575.95
Kevin McHale - 3,562.7

Avg DVOR per game in Best 5 years (this category neutralizes any “bias” based on missed games)
Kevin Garnett - 190.3
Tim Duncan - 170.5
Rasheed Wallace - 151.6
Bo Outlaw - 132.5
Draymond Green - 125.3
Elvin Hayes - 114.6
Horace Grant - 97.3
Paul Millsap - 84.2
Dennis Rodman - 81.0
Larry Nance - 78.6
Karl Malone - 78.1
Charles Oakley - 77.4
Dave DeBusschere - 74.2
Buck Williams - 68.8
Bobby Jones - 67.5
Paul Silas - 57.0
Gus Johnson - 53.7
Kevin McHale - 45.6

Peak season DVOR
Tim Duncan - 16,346.1
Kevin Garnett - 15,993.45
Draymond Green - 15,022.8
Rasheed Wallace - 14,623.3
Bo Outlaw - 13,095.4
Elvin Hayes - 11,954.25
Horace Grant - 9,670.35
Karl Malone - 8,488.95
Larry Nance - 8,304.9
Dennis Rodman - 7,757.35
Paul Millsap - 7,684.75
Bobby Jones - 7,619.85
Charles Oakley - 6,882.5
Dave DeBusschere - 6,436.15
Buck Williams - 6,366.15
Paul Silas - 5,890.5
Gus Johnson - 5,108.25
Kevin McHale - 4,081.0

[penbeast0]

I’m once again going to provide some categorical ranked comparisons of 17 different candidates (well, 17 including those who’ve already been voted in)....

Any way to add Paul Silas? He's the one I really wanted to see in terms of what numbers are available.

[trex_8063]

Based on the info I present in post #21---where Hayes places reasonably well in all DVOR splits, in DWS, and rDRTG---as well as the fact that there's a consistent trend of team defenses getting significantly better as soon as he arrives and significantly worse the moment he leaves (trends noted for both the Rockets and the Bullets), and competitive WOWYR scores, I'm going with Elvin Hayes for this spot. Likely going to continue to do so until he's voted in.

The next candidates I'll support (if they're still on the table) involve me sorting out the likes of DeBusschere, Draymond, Ho Grant, Sheed, Bo Outlaw, Larry Nance, or maybe Karl Malone as yet another "longevity pick". I'll also give some consideration to McHale, Oakley, Millsap, and maybe Gus Johnson toward the end of the list.

[trex_8063]

I’m once again going to provide some categorical ranked comparisons of 17 different candidates (well, 17 including those who’ve already been voted in)....

Any way to add Paul Silas? He's the one I really wanted to see in terms of what numbers are available.

Good call. I'll try to get him added sometime this weekend.

[cecilthesheep]

It's very close in my mind between DeBusschere and Hayes (and Paul Silas was also someone I strongly considered), but in the end I'm going with Dave DeBusschere.

[trex_8063]

I’m once again going to provide some categorical ranked comparisons of 17 different candidates (well, 17 including those who’ve already been voted in)....

Any way to add Paul Silas? He's the one I really wanted to see in terms of what numbers are available.

Have edited my above post #21 to include Paul Silas.

[penbeast0]

Well, Silas didn't come out well. I don't think I can support him without at least some vague semblance of statistical support. This leaves the long time continued excellence of Rasheed Wallace and Elvin Hayes, tempered of course by the fact that neither were particularly good teammates or locker room leaders (which I think does count for some defensive impact). DeBusschere has this strongly, but wasn't the big man defender that the other two were, and in eras where post defense was relatively more important (he would rank higher and the other two lower if they were playing today I think). Then, there is the short but strong career of Draymond Green.

Not really comfortable with any of them this high. I guess I will tentatively change my vote to Draymond Green as I know I tend to be a bit behind actual impact frequently.

[trex_8063]

Thru post #27:

Elvin Hayes - 5 (kendogg, pandrade83, 70sFan, LA Bird, trex_8063)
Dave DeBusschere - 4 (Samurai, Dr Positivity, SkyHookFTW, cecilthesheep)
Draymond Green - 3 (iggymcfrack, penbeast0, Johnny Firpo)
Kevin McHale - 1 (SinceGatlingWasARookie)

I think there's about 14-16 hours left on this thread, fwiw. Very competitive so far.

[PigsOnTheWing]

I cast my vote for Elvin Hayes.
I feel there's a sizeable gap between him and anyone else, both in individual stats and in impact on team defense.
My only big concern with him is that his contemporaries rated him consistently below other candidates like DeBusschere and Silas, at least it's what it seems like, looking at all-defensive teams. Hayes has only 2 2nd team selections in his resume while DeBusschere has 6 1st teams and most of them came when both of them were in their prime. Usually I don't give too much weight to this because a lot of non-basketball-related factors are included in all league selections (though maybe it wasn't the case back then) but, since some stats are lacking from Dave's prime years and thus it's difficult to get an idea of his real value, it's something to keep an eye on.
I must say I have some troubles in giving all the credit to DeBusschere for the Knicks' improvements following his trade because at the same time NY got rid of Bellamy who isn't exactly known for his D to put it nicely.
Unless someone can really make a case that voters were getting this right and that DeBusschere was rightfully seen as a better defender than Hayes, I'm going to stick with the latter.

[Dr Positivity]

I cast my vote for Elvin Hayes.
I feel there's a sizeable gap between him and anyone else, both in individual stats and in impact on team defense.
My only big concern with him is that his contemporaries rated him consistently below other candidates like DeBusschere and Silas, at least it's what it seems like, looking at all-defensive teams. Hayes has only 2 2nd team selections in his resume while DeBusschere has 6 1st teams and most of them came when both of them were in their prime. Usually I don't give too much weight to this because a lot of non-basketball-related factors are included in all league selections (though maybe it wasn't the case back then) but, since some stats are lacking from Dave's prime years and thus it's difficult to get an idea of his real value, it's something to keep an eye on.
I must say I have some troubles in giving all the credit to DeBusschere for the Knicks' improvements following his trade because at the same time NY got rid of Bellamy who isn't exactly known for his D to put it nicely.
Unless someone can really make a case that voters were getting this right and that DeBusschere was rightfully seen as a better defender than Hayes, I'm going to stick with the latter.

It probably didn't help Hayes in the voting that he was one of the most disliked players of all time

[trex_8063]

Just an update on the data I'd presented above (post #21):

I'd pro-rated the minutes (as they're used for the DVOR scores) to 82-game schedule for all seasons. It just occurred to me that I should perhaps do the same for DWS for those who played part of their career BEFORE the season was 82 games in length. Edits have been made above (pertains to DeBusschere, Silas, and Johnson), though it only shifted their career DWS totals by 0.1-0.3.

[trex_8063]

Thru post #31:

Elvin Hayes - 6 (Bounce_9, kendogg, pandrade83, 70sFan, LA Bird, trex_8063)
Dave DeBusschere - 4 (Samurai, Dr Positivity, SkyHookFTW, cecilthesheep)
Draymond Green - 3 (iggymcfrack, penbeast0, Johnny Firpo)
Kevin McHale - 1 (SinceGatlingWasARookie)

Calling it for Hayes.