#19 - GOAT peaks project (2019)

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Re: #19 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#21 » by Odinn21 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 1:43 pm

E-Balla wrote:And also why 05 Nash? Don't you think he was better in 06 and 07, because his raw numbers and +/- numbers all shot upward.

The only reason I can think of to choose 2005 version of Nash over any other is that playoff series performance against the Mavs in 2nd round.

Not only it was the best playoff performance of Nash, it’s among the greatest playoff series performances ever by a PG.

He also had his best ast/tov ratio in the regular season but I wouldn’t put any weight to that.

But that’s all. In 2007, he was simply better. More productive and more impactful.

That mention of WCF is awful BTW. Nash wasn’t even an average defender. He was a liability. He had literally negative impact on defense. People should consider his impact was way less than his box score numbers suggest. (This is the reason why I have Kidd over Nash BTW, despite Nash being more decorated with MVP awards.)
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: #19 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#22 » by cecilthesheep » Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:56 pm

Odinn21 wrote:
E-Balla wrote:And also why 05 Nash? Don't you think he was better in 06 and 07, because his raw numbers and +/- numbers all shot upward.

The only reason I can think of to choose 2005 version of Nash over any other is that playoff series performance against the Mavs in 2nd round.

Not only it was the best playoff performance of Nash, it’s among the greatest playoff series performances ever by a PG.

He also had his best ast/tov ratio in the regular season but I wouldn’t put any weight to that.

But that’s all. In 2007, he was simply better. More productive and more impactful.

That mention of WCF is awful BTW. Nash wasn’t even an average defender. He was a liability. He had literally negative impact on defense. People should consider his impact was way less than his box score numbers suggest. (This is the reason why I have Kidd over Nash BTW, despite Nash being more decorated with MVP awards.)

Nash plays the least important defensive position though. I hesitate to say defense is a crippling weakness for any point guard. Plus he wasn't THAT bad - he was at least good at staying in position, taking charges, rotating well.

As far as impact, doesn't Nash have one of the absolute best advanced-stats resumes out there besides like, LeBron and Magic Johnson?
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Re: #19 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#23 » by cecilthesheep » Wed Aug 28, 2019 2:59 pm

liamliam1234 wrote:Well, that is definitely the most disappointing result thus far (although expected). Felt like by the end everyone was relatively willing to acknowledge Robinson was straight up not that good (for a top forty all-time player) in the postseason, but I guess there is simply no denying his nearly unparalleled regular season excellence. I hope the same charity is extended to Nash in a few votes, but considering he lacks flashy boxscore numbers, somehow I do not have faith that it will.


I'll be right there with you on Nash. His defense is the only serious argument against him and I don't think point guard defense is all that important except in extreme cases.

From the beginning I agreed with y'all about Robinson's postseason flaws, I just thought the ways in which he maintained his value were the more important parts of his game. We're prioritizing one-on-one play differently imo - not that that sums up all our differences but I think it's a big part of it.
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Re: #19 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#24 » by E-Balla » Wed Aug 28, 2019 3:05 pm

cecilthesheep wrote:
Odinn21 wrote:
E-Balla wrote:And also why 05 Nash? Don't you think he was better in 06 and 07, because his raw numbers and +/- numbers all shot upward.

The only reason I can think of to choose 2005 version of Nash over any other is that playoff series performance against the Mavs in 2nd round.

Not only it was the best playoff performance of Nash, it’s among the greatest playoff series performances ever by a PG.

He also had his best ast/tov ratio in the regular season but I wouldn’t put any weight to that.

But that’s all. In 2007, he was simply better. More productive and more impactful.

That mention of WCF is awful BTW. Nash wasn’t even an average defender. He was a liability. He had literally negative impact on defense. People should consider his impact was way less than his box score numbers suggest. (This is the reason why I have Kidd over Nash BTW, despite Nash being more decorated with MVP awards.)

Nash plays the least important defensive position though. I hesitate to say defense is a crippling weakness for any point guard. Plus he wasn't THAT bad - he was at least good at staying in position, taking charges, rotating well.

As far as impact, doesn't Nash have one of the absolute best advanced-stats resumes out there besides like, LeBron and Magic Johnson?

Offensive? Yeah he does have one of the best. Overall Nash's advanced stat resume isn't better than Kidd though. Defense matters less at PG but it doesn't mean it doesn't matter. Kidd was top 5 in RAPM each year from 02 to 04 and he was 6th in 05. He's consistently shown similar impact to Nash, but isn't as well acknowledged around here just because he played on both ends meaning it's harder to argue him as a top x player all time on either end, and he had a worse team around him, and he played a style people around here that value scoring efficiency above all else hate.

Nash is definitely lagging behind CP3 in most, if not all, advanced stats I can think of too.
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Re: #19 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#25 » by Odinn21 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 3:17 pm

cecilthesheep wrote:Nash plays the least important defensive position though. I hesitate to say defense is a crippling weakness for any point guard. Plus he wasn't THAT bad - he was at least good at staying in position, taking charges, rotating well.

I suggest you to refresh your memory because he was that bad and he did none of the things you said. Well maybe taking charges. But he didn’t rotate well and he sucked at staying in position (especially staying in front of opponent PGs)
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: #19 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#26 » by No-more-rings » Wed Aug 28, 2019 3:25 pm

cecilthesheep wrote:
liamliam1234 wrote:Well, that is definitely the most disappointing result thus far (although expected). Felt like by the end everyone was relatively willing to acknowledge Robinson was straight up not that good (for a top forty all-time player) in the postseason, but I guess there is simply no denying his nearly unparalleled regular season excellence. I hope the same charity is extended to Nash in a few votes, but considering he lacks flashy boxscore numbers, somehow I do not have faith that it will.


I'll be right there with you on Nash. His defense is the only serious argument against him and I don't think point guard defense is all that important except in extreme cases.

From the beginning I agreed with y'all about Robinson's postseason flaws, I just thought the ways in which he maintained his value were the more important parts of his game. We're prioritizing one-on-one play differently imo - not that that sums up all our differences but I think it's a big part of it.

I don't think we can just gloss over weak defense from even a point guard. Point guards can be targeted from perimeter players and hat can hurt you. We've seen it, even with Curry who's better on d than Nash.
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Re: #19 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#27 » by liamliam1234 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:03 pm

There are more impact metrics to consider than just RAPM (and 2006/07 Nash does well there anyway), notably WOWYR and other SRS-based metrics. I am not really going to get into it as long as Kobe and Dirk are still on the board, because I plan to make a looooooong post presenting his case, but I will say it is not an accident that elgee put Nash ahead of Chris Paul (and well ahead of Jason Kidd). I think he might have offered the definitive Nash case, if people have not bothered to read the applicable Backpicks article.

E-Balla wrote:What's the argument for Nash > Kobe? His offense is amazing, and clearly better than Kobe, but they were both in the league peaking around the same time (I'd say 06 and 07 are both Nash and Kobe's best seasons) and Kobe was better by basically all metrics.


See, we already disagree at the base because I think Kobe was at his peak in 2008/09, but no, there are plenty of metrics which can support Nash being better than Kobe during those two years. Again, I am not really motivated to make the case yet, as I do think Kobe as a player deserves a higher spot here than Nash, but Nash’s offensive creation was truly otherworldly. Credit to Kobe for carrying his offence more individually, but there is a hard ceiling to how much his 2006 self could help a team, in a way not present for Nash. I know you like profiles like 2006 Kobe (2017 Westbrook being the heir apparent), so I do not think we will have much common ground there, but it is hardly accurate to act as if there is no argument.

As for his defence, if people are referring to what may happen if Nash were to play today (when his offence would be even better...), alright, yeah, he would be absolutely roasted on switches. But for his era, his defence was not a massive handicap.

Here is elgee’s assessment:

He’s also been widely panned for his defense, but, as discussed in the scouting report, he provided value with good rotations and by forcing more turnovers than his steals per game suggest. Point guard defense is rarely game-changing, and Nash’s D was further muted because he could hide on weaker offensive players in many situations; his defensive APM was right around (or even slightly above) average in five seasons between 2001-11. Based on all of this, I consider Nash a shade below average on defense in Phoenix and slightly worse in his Dallas days.


And our own competition moderator had a pretty great comment in the last peaks project:

LA Bird wrote:I will focus on Nash's defense here since everybody already knows about how good he is offensively and those who are dismissive of Suns' offensive success won't change their mind anyway.

1. Nash led offenses will have poor defense

This is a quite popular theory but I think the first half of the 2006 season should squash any doubts as to whether a Nash-led team can be any good on defense. With Amare out and Kurt Thomas as the starting center, Suns over the first half of the season were:

5th in offense (+3.4)
2nd in defense (-4.5)
2nd overall in net rating (+7.8).

Then Thomas went out with injuries and Suns defense nosedived since they basically had no center left (http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/PHO/2006_depth.html) and had to play 6'7 Marion as C. The question isn't whether a great defense is possible under Nash's offensive system but whether the team has the frontcourt personnel to do so. Nash wasn't holding his team back at all from being a elite defensive team with Amare gone in 2006.

2. Nash is a pathetic individual defender

Not going to deny that Nash is a below average defender but the thing that most people overlook is that Nash is only slightly below average. There is actually no stat supporting the widespread myths that Nash regularly gets burnt by opponent PGs because of his weak and slow defense.

Team opponent PG efficiency relative to league average
2005: -0.7
2006: -1.0
2007: -1.7
2008: +0.7
2009: +0.7
2010: -0.5
2011: -0.2
2012: +0.3
Source: hoopsstats.com

Individual opponent PER relative to league average
2005: ? (can't find data)
2006: +0.3
2007: +1.2
2008: +2.5
2009: +2.2
2010: +0.7
2011: -0.7
2012: -0.7
Source: 82games.com

Defensive RAPM numbers from J.E.'s most recent data (positive is better):
2005: -1.22
2006: -0.56
2007: -0.12
2008: -0.05
2009: -0.48
2010: -0.42
2011: +0.43
2012: +0.43
Source: https://www.dropbox.com/sh/teutg7zvxudqnlw/AAAUkNkDUG0KWeewPZbnwS2ja?dl=0

Nash's defense is a little below average but not exactly awful. And the fact that he is often among league leaders in offensive fouls drawn suggests that he at least puts in the effort to play defense.

Offensive fouls drawn
2006: 38 (19th)
2007: 62 (6th)
2008: 32 (26th)
2009: 53 (1st)
2010: 37 (14th)
Source: nbaminer.com

IMO, Nash's defensive deficiencies are largely overblown. People harping about his defense while ignoring his GOAT-level offensive impact is missing the bigger picture as Nash is still a massive impact player despite his defense (Suns 14.2 SRS dropoff in 16 games without Nash from 05~07 is the largest margin in ElGee's WOWY data).
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Re: #19 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#28 » by Odinn21 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:19 pm

liamliam1234 wrote:There are more impact metrics to consider than just RAPM (and 2006/07 Nash does well there anyway), notably WOWYR and other SRS-based metrics. I am not really going to get into it as long as Kobe and Dirk are still on the board, because I plan to make a looooooong post presenting his case, but I will say it is not an accident that elgee put Nash ahead of Chris Paul (and well ahead of Jason Kidd). I think he might have offered the definitive Nash case, if people have not bothered to read the applicable Backpicks article.

I like having discussions with you. But I think you’re putting way too much weight to ElGee’s assessments instead of coming up with yours.
ElGee has put way more effort to his work compared to me, sure. But anyone saying Nash is better than Moses should always be considered with a certain level of criticism.

As sophisticated as his mathematical methods, he still falls short at evaluating playoffs as much as any of us due to sample size.
And those ‘mathematical outliers’ are as important as regular season performances because when we talk about the goat level players, those are the deciders.

And he has a tendency to focus too much on impact over overall production.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: #19 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#29 » by liamliam1234 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:29 pm

Ah, yes, if you can fault me for anything, it is not caring enough about playoff performance...

What is the case that Nash was anything other than excellent in the postseason? Especially from 2005-07, which offers a fair sample size (and has been analysed by elgee accordingly). Unless you mean we should look at guys who won Finals first, but we are almost done with the top winners on that stage (Isiah showing up soon?), and distinguishing between conference finals winners and losers is kind-of pedantic, especially in the Western conference of the 2000s.

Yeah, if we throw out impact metrics in favour of basic box score numbers, Nash will suffer. But for a pass-first guard, I fail to see why looking at offensive impact metrics should not be the first thing to consider.
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Re: #19 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#30 » by Odinn21 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:44 pm

Aside from that performance against the Mavs in 2005 (which I already praised him for) what are his excellent performances?

He had good playoffs in 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2010.
The only series he was true best player on the floor was the already mentioned one. Quick look;
2005 1st rd against Mem; he wasn’t the best.
2005 2nd rd against Dal; he was the best.
2005 3rd rd against SA; he wasn’t the best
2006 1st rd against LAL; he wasn’t the best (he was taken to game 7 by a team with bunch of scrubs and he won because Kobe decided to choke away)
2006 2nd rd against LAC; he wasn’t the best. He was taken to a game 7 by Elton Brand (though Brand had the performance of his lifetime)
2006 3rd rd against Dal; he wasn’t the best. Dirk got the rematch.
2007 1st rd against LAL; he has a case.
2007 2nd rd against SA; he wasn’t the best.
2010 1st rd against Por; he wasn’t the best.
2010 2nd rd against SA; he has a case.
2010 3rd rd against LAL; he wasn’t the best.

So, out of 11 playoff series in his best seasons, he was the best player on the floor just once and has a case for 2 other.

How can someone be excellent when his track record is like this, especially in his best years?
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: #19 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#31 » by liamliam1234 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:48 pm

... Because that is really lazy analysis when comparing him primarily to guys who either already are comfortably (Duncan) or soon will be (Dirk and Kobe) above him anyway? Assuming I agree with the conclusions at all, which I doubt I do considering how several of them seem to be conclusions drawn from more basic box score stuff.
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Re: #19 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#32 » by Odinn21 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:56 pm

I think you missed the part I’m away from my PC and I can’t write essays on mobile, I’m trying to keep it short.

In those series, aside from that Dallas series, he didn’t perform better than his usual self in the regular seasons. In fact, in nearly half of ‘em his performance regressed. There are series he wasn’t the best player on the floor when Duncan, Dirk and Kobe were not the competition.

It may be lazy but it still gets to the point. Nash’s playoffs performance is not something to be behold or excellent. If he were excellent, height still lose but he’d perform better.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: #19 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#33 » by liamliam1234 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:14 pm

Most players do not elevate in the postseason, and we are almost done with the ones who did (or at least maintained the best). I suppose there is a decent argument for the players E-Balla is backing based on playoff impact metrics, so fair enough there, but since you like box score I am not seeing that case nearly as well. He was overall great in 2005, he was at least efficient in 2006, and in 2007 he put on a passing clinic (and was kind-of screwed in the Spurs series).
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Re: #19 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#34 » by E-Balla » Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:19 pm

liamliam1234 wrote:See, we already disagree at the base because I think Kobe was at his peak in 2008/09,

Well I said around the same time, not specifically at the same time.

but no, there are plenty of metrics which can support Nash being better than Kobe during those two years. Again, I am not really motivated to make the case yet, as I do think Kobe as a player deserves a higher spot here than Nash, but Nash’s offensive creation was truly otherworldly. Credit to Kobe for carrying his offence more individually, but there is a hard ceiling to how much his 2006 self could help a team, in a way not present for Nash. I know you like profiles like 2006 Kobe (2017 Westbrook being the heir apparent), so I do not think we will have much common ground there, but it is hardly accurate to act as if there is no argument.

I'm not really into profiles like 2006 Kobe at all, especially offensively, but you're only speaking offensively here and you're ignoring their whole careers. How can you say Kobe, who's been on 5 championship rosters, can't help a team in a way that Nash, the 0 time champion, could?

As far as the metrics go let's look at 06 for example since that's the year they were the 2 leaders in the MVP race. Kobe had the higher PER, WS, WS/48, VORP, BPM, and RAPM. What all in one metric did Nash lead in? He might've led in metrics that compartmentalize the game to look at what's happening on the floor (think things like AST% or box creation which you keep mentioning) but not in the metrics that are meant to show IMPACT which are the relevant metrics when we're discussing how good a player is. Now you can always argue against those metrics, and that's encouraged, but Nash doesn't have metrics like Kobe.

The WOWY and SRS based metrics really only work for players that missed a lot of games. Kobe missed 7 games from 06 to 09, he doesn't really have solid metrics in that field like Nash (who missed only a few games a year but did so consistently) does.

As for his defence, if people are referring to what may happen if Nash were to play today (when his offence would be even better...), alright, yeah, he would be absolutely roasted on switches. But for his era, his defence was not a massive handicap.

Here is elgee’s assessment:

He’s also been widely panned for his defense, but, as discussed in the scouting report, he provided value with good rotations and by forcing more turnovers than his steals per game suggest. Point guard defense is rarely game-changing, and Nash’s D was further muted because he could hide on weaker offensive players in many situations; his defensive APM was right around (or even slightly above) average in five seasons between 2001-11. Based on all of this, I consider Nash a shade below average on defense in Phoenix and slightly worse in his Dallas days.


And our own competition moderator had a pretty great comment in the last peaks project:

LA Bird wrote:I will focus on Nash's defense here since everybody already knows about how good he is offensively and those who are dismissive of Suns' offensive success won't change their mind anyway.

1. Nash led offenses will have poor defense

This is a quite popular theory but I think the first half of the 2006 season should squash any doubts as to whether a Nash-led team can be any good on defense. With Amare out and Kurt Thomas as the starting center, Suns over the first half of the season were:

5th in offense (+3.4)
2nd in defense (-4.5)
2nd overall in net rating (+7.8).

Then Thomas went out with injuries and Suns defense nosedived since they basically had no center left (http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/PHO/2006_depth.html) and had to play 6'7 Marion as C. The question isn't whether a great defense is possible under Nash's offensive system but whether the team has the frontcourt personnel to do so. Nash wasn't holding his team back at all from being a elite defensive team with Amare gone in 2006.

2. Nash is a pathetic individual defender

Not going to deny that Nash is a below average defender but the thing that most people overlook is that Nash is only slightly below average. There is actually no stat supporting the widespread myths that Nash regularly gets burnt by opponent PGs because of his weak and slow defense.

Team opponent PG efficiency relative to league average
2005: -0.7
2006: -1.0
2007: -1.7
2008: +0.7
2009: +0.7
2010: -0.5
2011: -0.2
2012: +0.3
Source: hoopsstats.com

Individual opponent PER relative to league average
2005: ? (can't find data)
2006: +0.3
2007: +1.2
2008: +2.5
2009: +2.2
2010: +0.7
2011: -0.7
2012: -0.7
Source: 82games.com

Defensive RAPM numbers from J.E.'s most recent data (positive is better):
2005: -1.22
2006: -0.56
2007: -0.12
2008: -0.05
2009: -0.48
2010: -0.42
2011: +0.43
2012: +0.43
Source: https://www.dropbox.com/sh/teutg7zvxudqnlw/AAAUkNkDUG0KWeewPZbnwS2ja?dl=0

Nash's defense is a little below average but not exactly awful. And the fact that he is often among league leaders in offensive fouls drawn suggests that he at least puts in the effort to play defense.

Offensive fouls drawn
2006: 38 (19th)
2007: 62 (6th)
2008: 32 (26th)
2009: 53 (1st)
2010: 37 (14th)
Source: nbaminer.com

IMO, Nash's defensive deficiencies are largely overblown. People harping about his defense while ignoring his GOAT-level offensive impact is missing the bigger picture as Nash is still a massive impact player despite his defense (Suns 14.2 SRS dropoff in 16 games without Nash from 05~07 is the largest margin in ElGee's WOWY data).

So I think Nash's badness was overblown by the masses before, and is now being undersold by analytic loving people. Chicago had amazing defenses with both Rose and Boozer in the starting 5 getting a lot of minutes. Houston had a great defense in 2018 with Harden on the floor. That doesn't mean they're not terrible still or not still a net negative. In this case being a negative is relevant because Kidd was a high impact defender and Kobe is a positive defender in many of his seasons.
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Re: #19 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#35 » by cecilthesheep » Wed Aug 28, 2019 5:57 pm

E-Balla wrote:
liamliam1234 wrote:See, we already disagree at the base because I think Kobe was at his peak in 2008/09,

Well I said around the same time, not specifically at the same time.

but no, there are plenty of metrics which can support Nash being better than Kobe during those two years. Again, I am not really motivated to make the case yet, as I do think Kobe as a player deserves a higher spot here than Nash, but Nash’s offensive creation was truly otherworldly. Credit to Kobe for carrying his offence more individually, but there is a hard ceiling to how much his 2006 self could help a team, in a way not present for Nash. I know you like profiles like 2006 Kobe (2017 Westbrook being the heir apparent), so I do not think we will have much common ground there, but it is hardly accurate to act as if there is no argument.

I'm not really into profiles like 2006 Kobe at all, especially offensively, but you're only speaking offensively here and you're ignoring their whole careers. How can you say Kobe, who's been on 5 championship rosters, can't help a team in a way that Nash, the 0 time champion, could?

As far as the metrics go let's look at 06 for example since that's the year they were the 2 leaders in the MVP race. Kobe had the higher PER, WS, WS/48, VORP, BPM, and RAPM. What all in one metric did Nash lead in? He might've led in metrics that compartmentalize the game to look at what's happening on the floor (think things like AST% or box creation which you keep mentioning) but not in the metrics that are meant to show IMPACT which are the relevant metrics when we're discussing how good a player is. Now you can always argue against those metrics, and that's encouraged, but Nash doesn't have metrics like Kobe.

The WOWY and SRS based metrics really only work for players that missed a lot of games. Kobe missed 7 games from 06 to 09, he doesn't really have solid metrics in that field like Nash (who missed only a few games a year but did so consistently) does.

...

In this case being a negative is relevant because Kidd was a high impact defender and Kobe is a positive defender in many of his seasons.

I'm pretty sure we're all in agreement that Kobe > Nash. I know I'll be voting for him first. Kidd's a much more complex argument imo
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D. Robinson '95 | A. Gilmore '83 | S. Nater '75
liamliam1234
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Re: #19 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#36 » by liamliam1234 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 8:09 pm

Well, I lost my post right before it was ready. So here are the bullet points:

1. Consistently ignoring the fact I rate Kobe’s peak over Nash.
2. Citing box score metrics as an argument for Kobe... when Kobe is hardly a legendary box score metrics guy in his own right. Also, not something you seemed to care about with David Robinson.
3. Offensive impact analysis is impact analysis.
4. Nash may not have had Kobe’s success, but he was clearly good enough to lead title contenders, and we are nearing the point where basically all the title winners are off the board (Pistons and 1970s guys aside). Also, not sure how much I buy this being a serious concern considering your support for a Durant-less Westbrook.
5. Citing Harden and Rose and Boozer speaks to my point: guard defence has historically not been that important.
6. Because of that, Kidd’s defensive advantage is unlikely something which outweighs Nash’s offensive advantage. I will grant peak Kidd was a solid playoff performer, and I am willing to take a second look at 2003, but, you know, “leastern” conference.
7. Missed games point is fair to a degree, but does not seems to have the effect you suspect it does:
However, APM considers Kobe one of the game’s best offensive players; his five-year average of scaled offensive APM ranks eighth, nestled behind Chris Paul and ahead of Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant and Dirk Nowitzki. Nine of Bryant’s 11 seasons from 2001-11 fall in the 98th percentile or better in offensive APM, enough to post five of the top-150 overall APM scores between 2006 and 2010. All told, he left the footprint of an offensive superstar who fell a hair short of the all-time greats.

His team results correlated positively with his presence, — among players on this list, he finished 18th in these game-level studies — and he scales well for a medium-efficiency volume scorer, as evidenced by his massive role on multiple high-end lineups. His team offenses were also successful in the playoffs, consistent with his own resilience against stingier defenses. Because of all this, he has a top-10 offensive peak and a top-20 overall peak in my estimation


E-Balla wrote:
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Clyde Frazier
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Re: #19 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#37 » by Clyde Frazier » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:12 pm

Ballot #1 - 11 Dirk

Dirk had an incredible regular season topped off by a championship run where he was about unstoppable as a player could get. His combo of elite footwork and patience on offense developed over the few seasons prior paid off as his teammates finally stepped up to support him. Why 11 over 06? He developed his game further after the 07 first round exit. The warriors were able to irritate him with athletic wings, forcing him to rush into shots that weren't ideal.

He reworked his game as I mentioned with better footwork and patience in his decision making. Put a big on him, and he'd drive right by you for the finish at the rim or short range pull up. Put an athletic wing on him and he'd just body you, create space and shoot right over you. If you look at his playoff performance in 08, 09 and 10 he was basically unstoppable, but his teammates failed to step up. For those paying close attention, that 2011 dirk playoff run was not surprising at all. He just finally had the support of his teammates. 06 dirk was more athletic, but 11 dirk was smarter with a more refined game and successful as a result.

Ballot #2 - 90 Ewing

Lending some support for Ewing here. Being at his peak athletically in 1990, Ewing was a workhorse on both ends of the floor. His combination of volume scoring on great efficiency and ability to anchor a defense should be worthy of this range. Led the 13th ranked SRS knicks to a 1st round upset of the 8th ranked SRS celtics in the first round. Would end up being eliminated by the eventual champion pistons, put still put up a valiant effort in the series, with 27.2 PPG. 9.6 RPG, 2.2 APG, .8 SPG, 2.2 BPG on 56% TS. Pistons also ranked 2nd in defense that season. If only Riley got his hands on Ewing a few years earlier...

Ballot #3 - 93 Barkley

Totally see a case for 90 being his peak, but I like Barkley’s more refined game in PHX where he was still an excellent athlete (and in amazing shape), but was a little less reckless. Of course he had more talent around him, but I think that slightly toned down version helped them get as far as they did in the postseason. I’m not quite sure 90 barkley gets them there.

93 WCF game 7 against the sonics - 44 PTS / 22 REB / 1 AST / 1 STL / 1 BLK / 74.1% TS / 167 ORTG :o

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Re: #19 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#38 » by HHera187 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:24 pm

I chose 05 Nash because of his playoffs: Vs Dallas and San Antonio he was unbelievable. Box score based metrics are not generous with Steve, but non boxe score (box creation, adjusted plus minus, passer rating, Pipm) are very good, better than Kobe. Bryant was the best overall player, better career, but peak Nash in my opinion is better, one of the best 5 or 6 offensive player of all time.

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Re: #19 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#39 » by E-Balla » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:50 pm

liamliam1234 wrote:Well, I lost my post right before it was ready. So here are the bullet points:

1. Consistently ignoring the fact I rate Kobe’s peak over Nash.
2. Citing box score metrics as an argument for Kobe... when Kobe is hardly a legendary box score metrics guy in his own right. Also, not something you seemed to care about with David Robinson.
3. Offensive impact analysis is impact analysis.
4. Nash may not have had Kobe’s success, but he was clearly good enough to lead title contenders, and we are nearing the point where basically all the title winners are off the board (Pistons and 1970s guys aside). Also, not sure how much I buy this being a serious concern considering your support for a Durant-less Westbrook.
5. Citing Harden and Rose and Boozer speaks to my point: guard defence has historically not been that important.
6. Because of that, Kidd’s defensive advantage is unlikely something which outweighs Nash’s offensive advantage. I will grant peak Kidd was a solid playoff performer, and I am willing to take a second look at 2003, but, you know, “leastern” conference.
7. Missed games point is fair to a degree, but does not seems to have the effect you suspect it does:
However, APM considers Kobe one of the game’s best offensive players; his five-year average of scaled offensive APM ranks eighth, nestled behind Chris Paul and ahead of Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant and Dirk Nowitzki. Nine of Bryant’s 11 seasons from 2001-11 fall in the 98th percentile or better in offensive APM, enough to post five of the top-150 overall APM scores between 2006 and 2010. All told, he left the footprint of an offensive superstar who fell a hair short of the all-time greats.

His team results correlated positively with his presence, — among players on this list, he finished 18th in these game-level studies — and he scales well for a medium-efficiency volume scorer, as evidenced by his massive role on multiple high-end lineups. His team offenses were also successful in the playoffs, consistent with his own resilience against stingier defenses. Because of all this, he has a top-10 offensive peak and a top-20 overall peak in my estimation


E-Balla wrote:

1. Well the question was originally for HHera187. :lol: I was arguing as if you put Nash over him because I wanted to hear what the argument for Nash over Kobe was.
2. I put them because I knew you and other would care. It was mainly to get my point across that Kobe tops him by all metrics.
3. It is, but it's only one side of the ball and our whole conclusion needs to take more than just that into account.
4. That comment was mostly a response to you saying Nash has proven that he can lead teams to a ceiling Kobe hasn't, as if Kobe hasn't been on better teams.
5. Boozer isn't a guard. My whole point was that no matter what position bad defense can be covered for. That doesn't mean it doesn't matter.
6. If Kidd is the best PG defender ever (or top 3 with GP and Clyde) and Nash is a negative that can mean Kidd's defense more than makes up for the offensive gap. I mean it's not like Kidd isn't a great offensive player already. He was a borderline top 5 offensive player through his best seasons. That's why Kidd's best seasons by RAPM are just as good as Nash's.
7. Hmm. Interesting.

I get you're still Kobe over Nash, but I just was going to see if you could formulate an argument for him over Kobe since you answered my post asking someone to.

Honestly I'm more interested in Kidd/Nash as a debate, because I feel like Kidd is really underappreciated and it will get him higher on here if I make his case but like you I'm not getting into it yet because I'm not close to voting for either guy. We'll get there when we get there.

With that said I looked up playoff RAPM (98-19).

Kidd is 50th with a +0.8 ORAPM, +1.7 DRAPM.
Kobe is 53rd with a +2.9 ORAPM, -0.4 DRAPM.
Dirk is 55th with a +3.7 ORAPM, -1.3 DRAPM.
Nash is 58th with a +3.6 ORAPM, -1.3 DRAPM.

Nash and Dirk are both top 10 offensive players and bottom 100 defensive players (this is out of over 1000 players).

And I'm just saying, Kidd's defense is a big deal. It's the only reason he's up there with those guys despite entering the league before all of them and having more postseason runs as an old man than the rest here. There's no reason he should be consistently left out when people discuss the second tier greats of the era (under Shaq and Duncan) when his success, numbers, and at the time his reputation was just as good as those guys. He just happened to do it when Shaq was still Shaq and Duncan was still Duncan. They all did it once Shaq got old and Duncan was dealing with tendonitis.
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Re: #19 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#40 » by HHera187 » Wed Aug 28, 2019 11:58 pm

A tip: one year RAPM is very very noise, we need at least 3 years of data

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