#20 - GOAT peaks project (2019)

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Re: #20 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#21 » by DatAsh » Sat Aug 31, 2019 9:30 pm

Sublime187 wrote:Man Mikan better not make it in yet. It's the one guy I really do not want in for at least the next 10 to 15 spots. Guy was in the weakest era BY FAR of any great. A guy like Ewing, Barkley, Kobe and even Embiid should get in before him easily.

Imagine what Moses would do against that competition....


Lebron born in 1924 instead of 1984 would be way, way worse as a basketball player, but his historical ranking should be exactly the same, if we're doing this correctly.


I used Lebron as an example because I know you are a huge Lebron fan(as am I).

I agree that Mikan's era was terrible in comparison to today.
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Re: #20 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#22 » by Morb » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:46 pm

1. T-Mac 2003 - GOAT Offensive Game, best OBPM in 25 years (from 1990 to 2015), lifted Orlando ORtg from 91.8 to 109.3 (+8% eFG), great body, versality, handles, underrated passer, low tovs, good series vs DRtg 99.9 (-3.7).
2. McAdoo 1975 - Scoring Machine, shooting 6'10, rebounds, historically great series vs DRtg 91.3 (-6.4). Wow.
3. Chris Paul 2008 - Top 3 PG Peak, assists, tempo, quickness, low tows, great playoffs.
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Re: #20 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#23 » by liamliam1234 » Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:44 pm

So Kobe and/or Moses seem like the likely next two votes. If that occurs, here is where we will be left:

1980-current title leaders will be isolated to Kawhi, Durant (highly objectionable “leader”, obviously), Isiah (with every appropriate stipulation), and... whoever captained the 2004 Pistons. Pre-1980 we have the Supersonics (unfamiliar given lack of all-time talent), the Hayes/Unseld duo, John Havlicek (I know, not solely him), Rick Barry, Artis Gilmore, George McGinnis, Mel Daniels, Walt Frazier, Willis Reed, Zelmo Beatty, Connie Hawkins, Bob Pettit, Dolph Schayes, and George Mikan. (Technically that leaves a couple of unaddressed titles, but I figured I would not totally dilute the list.) Not bad names, but we should come to terms with how we each assess the droppoff from Moses and Kobe to them.
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Re: #20 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#24 » by E-Balla » Sun Sep 1, 2019 12:26 am

DatAsh wrote:
Great response. I was going by memory with Ewing, and I may have gotten years mixed up. Whichever year it was that they were arguably the best defense ever is my vote for peak Ewing.

With that being said I think 92 is his best individual defensive season. They were the 2nd ranked defense, Ewing was 2nd team all defense, His best 2 way season is probably 89 when he averaged 1.5 spg, 3.5 bpg, and led a career best +3.3 offense.

Re Paul's defense: I do think there's evidence to support him being Kidd level, but I also have Kidd as slightly better than Paul.

I don't have access to my RAPM files on my current laptop, and I generally don't put much stock in single year RAPM, but looking at 4 year RAPM from 2012-2016, Paul has:

ORAPM of +6.6
DRAPM of +3.2

with ~12,000 minutes played

Total of +9.8, which is 4th best all time, behind only 12-16 Lebron, 07-11 Lebron, 02-06 Garnett, and 97-01 Jordan, and well ahead of Shaq(+7.7) and Duncan(+8.8)'s bests, though the years were different, so not really comparable.

IDK what RAPM numbers you're looking at but that's way off of what I've seen, especially defensively. You have a link?
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Re: #20 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#25 » by E-Balla » Sun Sep 1, 2019 12:29 am

liamliam1234 wrote:So Kobe and/or Moses seem like the likely next two votes. If that occurs, here is where we will be left:

1980-current title leaders will be isolated to Kawhi, Durant (highly objectionable “leader”, obviously), Isiah (with every appropriate stipulation), and... whoever captained the 2004 Pistons. Pre-1980 we have the Supersonics (unfamiliar given lack of all-time talent), the Hayes/Unseld duo, John Havlicek (I know, not solely him), Rick Barry, Artis Gilmore, George McGinnis, Mel Daniels, Walt Frazier, Willis Reed, Zelmo Beatty, Connie Hawkins, Bob Pettit, Dolph Schayes, and George Mikan. (Technically that leaves a couple of unaddressed titles, but I figured I would not totally dilute the list.) Not bad names, but we should come to terms with how we each assess the droppoff from Moses and Kobe to them.

I don't think there's a big drop from them to Clyde. Clyde is about even to Kidd and Nash imo.
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Re: #20 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#26 » by GeorgeMarcus » Sun Sep 1, 2019 12:38 am

I've been putting Moses ahead of Barkley but I wonder if I'm being influenced too much by Championship bias. Starting to think 93 Barkley is the best choice to round out the top 20. I'm no Kobe fan but this is around the time his name should pop up as well.
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Re: #20 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#27 » by DatAsh » Sun Sep 1, 2019 12:44 am

E-Balla wrote:
DatAsh wrote:
Great response. I was going by memory with Ewing, and I may have gotten years mixed up. Whichever year it was that they were arguably the best defense ever is my vote for peak Ewing.

With that being said I think 92 is his best individual defensive season. They were the 2nd ranked defense, Ewing was 2nd team all defense, His best 2 way season is probably 89 when he averaged 1.5 spg, 3.5 bpg, and led a career best +3.3 offense.

Re Paul's defense: I do think there's evidence to support him being Kidd level, but I also have Kidd as slightly better than Paul.

I don't have access to my RAPM files on my current laptop, and I generally don't put much stock in single year RAPM, but looking at 4 year RAPM from 2012-2016, Paul has:

ORAPM of +6.6
DRAPM of +3.2

with ~12,000 minutes played

Total of +9.8, which is 4th best all time, behind only 12-16 Lebron, 07-11 Lebron, 02-06 Garnett, and 97-01 Jordan, and well ahead of Shaq(+7.7) and Duncan(+8.8)'s bests, though the years were different, so not really comparable.

IDK what RAPM numbers you're looking at but that's way off of what I've seen, especially defensively. You have a link?


Sure. I've seen other RAPM sources that have painted him less positively, so I do think it's good to considere the source.

http://www.apbr.org/metrics/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=9689
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Re: #20 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#28 » by Clyde Frazier » Sun Sep 1, 2019 1:02 am

cecilthesheep wrote:Dirk over Kobe and Nash is very strange to me. Feel like Kobe's better for people who like two-way players (ish) and Nash is better for people who are okay with more one-way guys.


An incredible title run with no second star will do that for you.
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Re: #20 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#29 » by cecilthesheep » Sun Sep 1, 2019 1:29 am

Sublime187 wrote:Man Mikan better not make it in yet. It's the one guy I really do not want in for at least the next 10 to 15 spots. Guy was in the weakest era BY FAR of any great. A guy like Ewing, Barkley, Kobe and even Embiid should get in before him easily.

Imagine what Moses would do against that competition....

Imagining what Moses (or Barkley, or Kobe, or Ewing) would do against that competition if he was born in 1924 and played under 1950s rules is much harder to do, but I think he probably would not have been as good as Mikan. The whole race thing complicates the discussion significantly, but in general I think there is no way to do this but rate players by how well they did against the competition they actually faced with the resources, coaching, and training they actually had.
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Re: #20 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#30 » by Sublime187 » Sun Sep 1, 2019 2:27 am

cecilthesheep wrote:
Sublime187 wrote:Man Mikan better not make it in yet. It's the one guy I really do not want in for at least the next 10 to 15 spots. Guy was in the weakest era BY FAR of any great. A guy like Ewing, Barkley, Kobe and even Embiid should get in before him easily.

Imagine what Moses would do against that competition....

Imagining what Moses (or Barkley, or Kobe, or Ewing) would do against that competition if he was born in 1924 and played under 1950s rules is much harder to do, but I think he probably would not have been as good as Mikan. The whole race thing complicates the discussion significantly, but in general I think there is no way to do this but rate players by how well they did against the competition they actually faced with the resources, coaching, and training they actually had.


I mean for every other era I agree but for most of Mikan's career he was beating just white guys. And even that was mainly cause he was more athletic and bigger then the others.

To take a guy like Moses, Ewing or even Barkley who are no doubt much more athletic it would be a destruction. Again just my opinion.
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Re: #20 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#31 » by LA Bird » Sun Sep 1, 2019 2:58 am

I only start my seasonal rankings from 1952 so I wouldn't vote for Mikan yet but it always strikes me as odd how Mikan is often dismissed for playing in a weak era of trash players while not getting credit for his in-era impact like Russell does. We have a sizeable WOWY sample for both of them only one season apart and a post-retirement Mikan actually looks very impressive for how low his minutes were.

1956 Lakers and Mikan
With (37G): +2.22 MOV
Without (35G): -4.17 MOV
Difference: +6.39 MOV

1957 Celtics and Russell
With (48G): +6.02 MOV
Without (24G): +4.54 MOV
Difference: +1.48 MOV

Peak Russell was obviously much better than rookie Russell but peak Mikan was also much better than an old Mikan who just came out of retirement. Even when penalizing him for the lack of black players back then, I don't think it is a stretch to say Mikan at his best in 49/50 was a top 20 peak or so if one values in-era dominance a lot.
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Re: #20 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#32 » by penbeast0 » Sun Sep 1, 2019 2:58 am

Sublime187 wrote:
I mean for every other era I agree but for most of Mikan's career he was beating just white guys. And even that was mainly cause he was more athletic and bigger then the others.

To take a guy like Moses, Ewing or even Barkley who are no doubt much more athletic it would be a destruction. Again just my opinion.


Shaq was mainly beating guys because he was more athletic and bigger than the others. Doesn't matter how you do it, only that you do.
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Re: #20 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#33 » by JoeMalburg » Sun Sep 1, 2019 4:34 am

No-more-rings wrote:
JoeMalburg wrote:Barkley was getting votes around the top ten, what happened?

Did all his supporters leave the project?

I only recall one poster even voting for him at all, and even then i think it was more around the 13-15 range.


I went back to look. He was getting mentions in the #10 thread, got a vote in the #11 thread and multiple votes in the #12 thread. Between the three, at least five different posters mentioned Barkley as a vote or consideration.

I think most of them are no longer voting.
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Re: #20 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#34 » by trex_8063 » Sun Sep 1, 2019 3:32 pm

cecilthesheep wrote:
Sublime187 wrote:Man Mikan better not make it in yet. It's the one guy I really do not want in for at least the next 10 to 15 spots. Guy was in the weakest era BY FAR of any great. A guy like Ewing, Barkley, Kobe and even Embiid should get in before him easily.

Imagine what Moses would do against that competition....

Imagining what Moses (or Barkley, or Kobe, or Ewing) would do against that competition if he was born in 1924 and played under 1950s rules is much harder to do, but I think he probably would not have been as good as Mikan. The whole race thing complicates the discussion significantly, but in general I think there is no way to do this but rate players by how well they did against the competition they actually faced with the resources, coaching, and training they actually had.


To make it fair, I hope you’re also doing the reverse and speculating on how Mikan would do if he’d been born circa-1980 or thereabouts. That’s where it gets tricky; while it’s true he crushed his weak era [as you’d expect a true all-time great to do], it’s hard to see him as a player who is dominant to the same degree as many of the modern(ish) players [who are still on the table] were/are in the modern(ish) era.

And I say that as someone who has generally been pretty pro-Mikan in all-time comparisons in the past. But let’s look at him realistically.....

As an athletic specimen, he’s very similar to someone like Marc Gasol [or at best a Steven Adams type], although perhaps 1” shorter.
He’s got a nice post game [relative to his era, at least] though not exactly making my all-time short-list of great post scorers.
Has a bit of shooting touch, though it’s difficult to speculate on how much range he’d have [need to bear in mind when looking at his FT% that he did the under-handed “granny shot”, which he no doubt would NOT be utilizing in any semi-modern context; would that hurt his %???.....].
Is a decent passing big, though nothing transcendent; certainly not at all an “all-timer” in this regard.
Has very good defensive instincts to my eye (and certainly the Lakers’ defensive run with him at the helm supports this).

So where does a Marc Gasol level athlete with those player attributes land in a modern context? Probably roughly a Marc Gasol level player (which I think we’d all agree Marc Gasol is no where near a top-20 player peak all-time). Admittedly, we cannot assume Marc would be as dominant in the 40s/50s as Mikan was, though. But jsia: if it’s difficult to imagine Mikan significantly better than Marc Gasol in a modern context (I know many would argue he’d be substantially worse than that, though I personally tend to disagree), it’s difficult [for me] to argue him as a top 20(ish) peak.
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Re: #20 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#35 » by Sublime187 » Sun Sep 1, 2019 4:11 pm

penbeast0 wrote:
Sublime187 wrote:
I mean for every other era I agree but for most of Mikan's career he was beating just white guys. And even that was mainly cause he was more athletic and bigger then the others.

To take a guy like Moses, Ewing or even Barkley who are no doubt much more athletic it would be a destruction. Again just my opinion.


Shaq was mainly beating guys because he was more athletic and bigger than the others. Doesn't matter how you do it, only that you do.


Yes but we know Shaq was in fact doing it against the best players in the world. The best athletes in the world.

When Mikan was doing his thing how do we know there weren't a lot better black players who were more athletic that were just not allowed to play? What if all those players were playing, would Mikan be so dominant?
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Re: #20 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#36 » by penbeast0 » Sun Sep 1, 2019 4:11 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
cecilthesheep wrote:
Sublime187 wrote:Man Mikan better not make it in yet. It's the one guy I really do not want in for at least the next 10 to 15 spots. Guy was in the weakest era BY FAR of any great. A guy like Ewing, Barkley, Kobe and even Embiid should get in before him easily.

Imagine what Moses would do against that competition....

Imagining what Moses (or Barkley, or Kobe, or Ewing) would do against that competition if he was born in 1924 and played under 1950s rules is much harder to do, but I think he probably would not have been as good as Mikan. The whole race thing complicates the discussion significantly, but in general I think there is no way to do this but rate players by how well they did against the competition they actually faced with the resources, coaching, and training they actually had.


To make it fair, I hope you’re also doing the reverse and speculating on how Mikan would do if he’d been born circa-1980 or thereabouts. That’s where it gets tricky; while it’s true he crushed his weak era [as you’d expect a true all-time great to do], it’s hard to see him as a player who is dominant to the same degree as many of the modern(ish) players [who are still on the table] were/are in the modern(ish) era.

And I say that as someone who has generally been pretty pro-Mikan in all-time comparisons in the past. But let’s look at him realistically.....

As an athletic specimen, he’s very similar to someone like Marc Gasol [or at best a Steven Adams type], although perhaps 1” shorter.
He’s got a nice post game [relative to his era, at least] though not exactly making my all-time short-list of great post scorers.
Has a bit of shooting touch, though it’s difficult to speculate on how much range he’d have [need to bear in mind when looking at his FT% that he did the under-handed “granny shot”, which he no doubt would NOT be utilizing in any semi-modern context; would that hurt his %???.....].
Is a decent passing big, though nothing transcendent; certainly not at all an “all-timer” in this regard.
Has very good defensive instincts to my eye (and certainly the Lakers’ defensive run with him at the helm supports this).

So where does a Marc Gasol level athlete with those player attributes land in a modern context? Probably roughly a Marc Gasol level player (which I think we’d all agree Marc Gasol is no where near a top-20 player peak all-time). Admittedly, we cannot assume Marc would be as dominant in the 40s/50s as Mikan was, though. But jsia: if it’s difficult to imagine Mikan significantly better than Marc Gasol in a modern context (I know many would argue he’d be substantially worse than that, though I personally tend to disagree), it’s difficult [for me] to argue him as a top 20(ish) peak.


I would say more of a scorer than Marc Gasol, with a large strength advantage; he bullies peers in a Moses Malone, Shaq type of way physically. That would also carry over to his rebounding where even post prime (52 on) he was consistantly at the top of the league in rebounding (2nd, 1st, 1st). I don't see him learning Gasol's outside game if he's truly dominant growing up in the USA rather than Europe.

So more a rich man's Vucevic type than a Gasol type I would say but with stronger defense. OF course, I don't think Moses would be anywhere near the player he was in his prime playing in today's league either, or pretty much any great offensive post scorer in history, even a Wilt or Shaq would be utilized far less as coaches played a 4 out with them like Orlando Dwight Howard. The league has changed too much.

I just don't think it's relevant to a question of greatest peaks. Curry wouldn't have a top peak in a pre 3 point era either . . . so what. It's about the dominance in era with an adjustment for era strength. The question is how massive the adjustment has to be for Mikan's segregated, baseball (and maybe football) dominated era.
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Re: #20 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#37 » by eminence » Sun Sep 1, 2019 4:45 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
cecilthesheep wrote:
Sublime187 wrote:Man Mikan better not make it in yet. It's the one guy I really do not want in for at least the next 10 to 15 spots. Guy was in the weakest era BY FAR of any great. A guy like Ewing, Barkley, Kobe and even Embiid should get in before him easily.

Imagine what Moses would do against that competition....

Imagining what Moses (or Barkley, or Kobe, or Ewing) would do against that competition if he was born in 1924 and played under 1950s rules is much harder to do, but I think he probably would not have been as good as Mikan. The whole race thing complicates the discussion significantly, but in general I think there is no way to do this but rate players by how well they did against the competition they actually faced with the resources, coaching, and training they actually had.


To make it fair, I hope you’re also doing the reverse and speculating on how Mikan would do if he’d been born circa-1980 or thereabouts. That’s where it gets tricky; while it’s true he crushed his weak era [as you’d expect a true all-time great to do], it’s hard to see him as a player who is dominant to the same degree as many of the modern(ish) players [who are still on the table] were/are in the modern(ish) era.

And I say that as someone who has generally been pretty pro-Mikan in all-time comparisons in the past. But let’s look at him realistically.....

As an athletic specimen, he’s very similar to someone like Marc Gasol [or at best a Steven Adams type], although perhaps 1” shorter.
He’s got a nice post game [relative to his era, at least] though not exactly making my all-time short-list of great post scorers.
Has a bit of shooting touch, though it’s difficult to speculate on how much range he’d have [need to bear in mind when looking at his FT% that he did the under-handed “granny shot”, which he no doubt would NOT be utilizing in any semi-modern context; would that hurt his %???.....].
Is a decent passing big, though nothing transcendent; certainly not at all an “all-timer” in this regard.
Has very good defensive instincts to my eye (and certainly the Lakers’ defensive run with him at the helm supports this).

So where does a Marc Gasol level athlete with those player attributes land in a modern context? Probably roughly a Marc Gasol level player (which I think we’d all agree Marc Gasol is no where near a top-20 player peak all-time). Admittedly, we cannot assume Marc would be as dominant in the 40s/50s as Mikan was, though. But jsia: if it’s difficult to imagine Mikan significantly better than Marc Gasol in a modern context (I know many would argue he’d be substantially worse than that, though I personally tend to disagree), it’s difficult [for me] to argue him as a top 20(ish) peak.


I think you're badly underrating Mikan's athleticism with the Gasol comp.

Here's Lapchick's description from his DePaul days:

"He has remarkable speed, coordination and stamina for a tall man. He's a great handler, as well as a scorer. And he's a great team-player, constantly feeding his teammates with remarkable accuracy. He has a fine hook-shot with either hand. He does a tremendous rebounding and defensive job. I can't even imagine a human being who could be a better all-around player. He's got all the assets of a smaller man, plus his great height."

The most complete Mikan video I know of:

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Re: #20 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#38 » by 70sFan » Sun Sep 1, 2019 6:13 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
cecilthesheep wrote:
Sublime187 wrote:Man Mikan better not make it in yet. It's the one guy I really do not want in for at least the next 10 to 15 spots. Guy was in the weakest era BY FAR of any great. A guy like Ewing, Barkley, Kobe and even Embiid should get in before him easily.

Imagine what Moses would do against that competition....

Imagining what Moses (or Barkley, or Kobe, or Ewing) would do against that competition if he was born in 1924 and played under 1950s rules is much harder to do, but I think he probably would not have been as good as Mikan. The whole race thing complicates the discussion significantly, but in general I think there is no way to do this but rate players by how well they did against the competition they actually faced with the resources, coaching, and training they actually had.


To make it fair, I hope you’re also doing the reverse and speculating on how Mikan would do if he’d been born circa-1980 or thereabouts. That’s where it gets tricky; while it’s true he crushed his weak era [as you’d expect a true all-time great to do], it’s hard to see him as a player who is dominant to the same degree as many of the modern(ish) players [who are still on the table] were/are in the modern(ish) era.

And I say that as someone who has generally been pretty pro-Mikan in all-time comparisons in the past. But let’s look at him realistically.....

As an athletic specimen, he’s very similar to someone like Marc Gasol [or at best a Steven Adams type], although perhaps 1” shorter.
He’s got a nice post game [relative to his era, at least] though not exactly making my all-time short-list of great post scorers.
Has a bit of shooting touch, though it’s difficult to speculate on how much range he’d have [need to bear in mind when looking at his FT% that he did the under-handed “granny shot”, which he no doubt would NOT be utilizing in any semi-modern context; would that hurt his %???.....].
Is a decent passing big, though nothing transcendent; certainly not at all an “all-timer” in this regard.
Has very good defensive instincts to my eye (and certainly the Lakers’ defensive run with him at the helm supports this).

So where does a Marc Gasol level athlete with those player attributes land in a modern context? Probably roughly a Marc Gasol level player (which I think we’d all agree Marc Gasol is no where near a top-20 player peak all-time). Admittedly, we cannot assume Marc would be as dominant in the 40s/50s as Mikan was, though. But jsia: if it’s difficult to imagine Mikan significantly better than Marc Gasol in a modern context (I know many would argue he’d be substantially worse than that, though I personally tend to disagree), it’s difficult [for me] to argue him as a top 20(ish) peak.


Good post, but I disagree with your opinion about passing. Mikan looks excellent in that aspect in available footage.
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Re: #20 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#39 » by JoeMalburg » Sun Sep 1, 2019 7:01 pm

Sublime187 wrote:Man Mikan better not make it in yet. It's the one guy I really do not want in for at least the next 10 to 15 spots. Guy was in the weakest era BY FAR of any great. A guy like Ewing, Barkley, Kobe and even Embiid should get in before him easily.

Imagine what Moses would do against that competition....


If we are imagining things, I'm not sure I can imagine the league existing when Ewing or Barkley came along without Mikan.

How many times in NBA history has time travel been involved with picking an NBA champion?

And while we don't know how Mikan would have done against the best black players in the world if they were in the NBA at that time, Mikan and the Lakers did typically play against the best black teams in the World Basketball Tournament and George was incredibly dominant.
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Re: #20 - GOAT peaks project (2019) 

Post#40 » by Odinn21 » Sun Sep 1, 2019 7:18 pm

Will we have rebuttals?
I think most of us have disagreements with the outcome (that’s also on dipped participation).

This list has gotten very strange for me.
If we’d phrase the question as ‘1995 Robinson vs. 1983 Moses’ or ‘2011 Dirk vs. 1993 Chuck’, I think the answers should be the ones those not are on the list currently. And those are direct positional comparisons.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.

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