#35 - GOAT peaks project (2019)

[cecilthesheep]

1. 1969 Willis Reed - Led a great Knicks team on both ends, should probably have won MVP, incredible playoff run. One of the only options left who was truly dominant on offense and defense. Not a huge scoring force, but could be when he needed to be; showed himself to be good at working with other stars like Clyde.

2. 1959 Bob Cousy - I see Cousy as his generation's Magic or Nash. I think players who can get a team to run and find the open guy on the break are the most valuable kinds of players to have on offense, and there's not been very many really high-level transition captains. Cousy was the first. No real way to say for sure which Cousy year was the best, but I can't find anything wrong with this one; the Celts won a title, and his passing was probably at its apex here.

3. 1970 Willis Reed - Same player, almost as dominant as '69, won a ring. I had Pettit here initially, but I've grown a little cooler on him.

[LA Bird]

the fact Barry was left off the last project was outright gross, lol.

Maybe if the list was longer but with only 40 players, I don't think any of the selections in the last peaks project was particularly egregious. Even among SFs, Barry has to compete with Pippen and Bernard King, and both were left off the list as well. Hopefully we have enough participation this time around to keep the project going until 50 or more to include more great players.

Anyway, my votes with reasoning are the same as last round:

Spoiler:

1. 2019 James Harden
Harden set the all time record for points per 100 possessions in a regular season and his isolation volume is one of the most insane stat ever.

Iso points per game
18.14 Harden
9.35 Bucks
8.93 Nets
8.78 Thunder
8.51 Lakers
7.21 Raptors

He came close to doubling the most iso heavy team in the league by himself, while anchoring a +5 offense with his second best player being a non-prime CP3 who missed a chunk of the season. Some people like to dismiss Harden as being a regular season statpadder but he still averaged a ridiculous 15.64 iso points per game in the playoffs on 1.04 PPP. That is a higher iso efficiency than Durant (0.96 PPP) and Kawhi (0.95 PPP) on triple the volume but Harden doesn't get anywhere near the amount of praise for his offense as the other two do. Harden's overall playoffs statline was 32/7/7 on 57% TS. Yes, it's a decline compared to his regular season but 40+ points per 100 possessions in the playoffs is still all time scoring territory. Kobe exceeded that mark only once in his entire career and LeBron only did it twice (MJ 12 times LOL). Harden's weak defense and Houston's solid team performance for the past several seasons without him are valid concerns and I am still not very comfortable with where to rank Harden despite his all time level statistical production. However, considering that high volume wings with even less playoff success such as 09 Wade and 03 TMac were voted in a long time ago on the basis of a strong regular season, I think it's about time for 2019 Harden here.

2. 2018 James Harden

My main concerns with 2018 Harden was that
1) 3pt shooting is a major part of his game and he was awful in it during the playoffs (as it was in the previous two playoffs as well)
2) Chris Paul seemed to be the more valuable player on a per minute basis.
The second point in particular raises questions about how much impact Harden was actually having on Houston's overall team performance despite his volume. A player should only reach that high of an offensive usage when his supporting cast is trash on offense but the Rockets with Paul minus Harden actually outperformed the lineups with Harden minus Paul. Chris Paul, despite not getting any All-Star recognition, was clearly All-NBA caliber when healthy IMO. Did Harden's high volume relative to Paul's actually prevented Houston from being even better? Possibly. But on the other hand, Paul might have broke down even earlier if tasked with higher offensive usage during the regular season. Maybe I am being too harsh on Harden here considering the Rockets when healthy were like a 10 SRS team but I think much of the better team performance in 2018 was because it was Paul's only Rockets season as a top player. In terms of Harden's own seasonal evaluation, I rate 2019 just above 2018 due to the better playoffs performance, heavier minutes, and his progression as an iso and volume 3pt shooter. Replace 18 Harden with 19 Harden and the Rockets might have had a better chance to win one of G6 or G7 to advance and win the title.

3. 1999 Alonzo Mourning

Copy and pasting E-Balla's argument from an older thread....

I've been alluding to how great and underrated Zo is but I haven't made a full post on it yet. It's pretty odd that looking around you can find write ups either here or from blogs about other players. There's nothing on Zo. I mean articles from professionals from back in the day exist but for some reason I can't find any breakdowns on Zo which is a shame because his impact was tremendous and at his peak he was on the same level as young Duncan, arguably better than Malone who barely won MVP over him, and was comparable to Shaq at the time (who played no defense).

Offensively Zo had a basic post game, and a pretty reliable jumper out to 15 feet (it was shaky outside of that). That's basically all (of course he had the signature Georgetown running hook like Ewing did but it was meh). Most of his points were gained due to his immense physical advantages. His turnaround was money because of the speed of his spin, he got deep position easily with his strength and finished strong, and his faceup drives worked because he had a jumper you had to play while having one of the best first steps for any C ever (Dwight comes to mind as faster). Zo also wanted it, and he played like it. Got him to the line often and got him a decent amount of putbacks. He was undersized but I think that played to his advantage more especially in the post Shaq era. He was in a league environment where teams kept a big plodder on the floor or on the roster and when matched up with one he was unstoppable. He didn't even need his jumper against some of the bigger guys in league history.

Watch on YouTube

His handles weren't great, he wasn't a great mover laterally, he didn't have spin moves or a strong drop step, but he still managed to be a 19-23 ppg scorer on between +5-7 rTS% each of the first 8 years of his career and a 20 ppg on 55 TS% guy in the playoffs.

He didn't pass well at all but Miami in both 98 and 99 had a +2.5ish offense. They had a +2.4 offense in 98 against NY and a +0.9 in 99 against them (that's slight underrated because NY's defense came alive in the playoffs). All in all Zo wasn't great but he was definitely a good enough first option to give you a top 10 offense that would hold in the playoffs against some tough ass squads in tough ass series (arguably the toughest series' ever) if he was the centerpiece with a very good PG and decent third scorer (Tim and Mash).

Overall he averaged 20.1/11.0/1.6 with 3.9 bpg on +5.3 rTS% with a 107 ORTG in the regular season and 21.6/8.2/0.8 with 2.8 blocks and 1.6 steals per game on 57.1 TS% (+8.3 rTS%) with a 106 ORTG (+8 rORTG).

Defensively he's on the shortlist of the GOATs. He was DPOY back to back in 99 and 2000 and watching him it's obvious why. He was someone that chased shots but didn't seem to foul because his jump speed was so fast. Next to Bill Russell he's the most effective shot blocker ever. One thing I always noticed watching Zo is he kept the ball inbounds. If his back was to the basket he went straight up and only flicked his wrist. If he was behind the play he pinned it on the backboard. Either way he always found a way to keep it in play and I'm taking him as the best rim protector ever next to Deke. In this clip you can see exactly how fast he gets off the floor and how effortless it is for him.

Watch on YouTube

His only weakness was his lack of height. Unlike Ben Wallace who seemed to be able to overcome his height issues Zo was not a great man defender at all. Usually this isn't an issue but Zo played at the same time as numbers 4, 9, 18, and 23 on this list. The 4 guys with the highest single season PPG totals for any true C outside of Wilt and Kareem. In these clips you can see how Shaq dominates him at both player's arguable peaks.

Watch on YouTube

Hakeem (who was also undersized - he was listed at 7 feet but is barely taller than Dwight Howard who is 6-9 barefoot and 6-10 in sneakers) is the only one of those centers Zo played well and that's because with his speed and power he was the perfect counter to him. I'd argue no one ever played Hakeem as well as Zo did in the few times I've seen a game featuring the two. Overall he's a 10/10 rim defender, 10/10 help defender, and maybe a 7/10 man defender that still led -4 to -6 defenses at his best.

As far as the season goes it was a lockout but Miami won 33 of the 50 games, going 1-3 without Zo, and lost in a major first round upset to the eventual NBA Finalists while they still had their best player (because Ewing got hurt and they still made the Finals without him). I think that result is why this year is overlooked because Zo played amazing in that series while his team collapsed.

Zo averaged 21.6 ppg on 57.1 TS% like mentioned before but his team? Outside of him they scored 57.4 ppg on 47 TS%. Tim Hardaway went from averaging 17.4 ppg and 7.2 apg on 51.1 TS% with a 13.8 TOV% and 105 ORTG to 9.0 ppg and 6.4 apg on 35.7 TS% with a 22.2 TOV% and 74 ORTG in the series against NY. Without Zo dominating NY sweeps them instead of needing a lucky bounce on an H20 floater to win.

As far as his impact goes I'm not going to dig for the raw +/- numbers (screw NBA.com for ever taking them down) but Zo led the league in RAPM and his yearly finishes from 97 to 99 are:

97 - 7 (this is NPI)
98 - 2 (3rd in NPI)
99 - 1 (2nd in NPI)

TL;DR: Impact stats paint him as the impactful player of that 3 year stretch.

Basically we have it all here, just not the reputation, and that's something recent because in 99 he was runner up to MVP and in 2000 he was 3rd in MVP voting to Shaq and KG. The numbers hold up, the playoff performance holds up, the team strength success holds up (not in 99 specifically but form 97-00), the impact holds up. If it wasn't for his game being limited compared to the other star Cs of his time and him losing head to head matchups against all of them constantly (besides Hakeem) he'd be seen as on their level pretty clearly. As it is he's a half step behind them as the next best great true C if you ask me.

EDIT: And I forgot to mention Zo's impact as a leader. I'm not the biggest intangibles guy unless it bleeds on the floor and boy did it when Zo was out there. He's one of the toughest players ever (he would fight you if he needed to as JVG found out in 98), one of the most well respected players ever (so respected people forget what he did to the Raps to get back to Miami and just like him going back to Miami), and one of the players that played hardest in league history. If I made a short list of players with the most contagious energy in the floor Zo would probably be right under Magic, KG, and Westbrook as far as guys worthy of this list go. He always seemed to lead through big plays, big celebrations, and a crowd/team that exploded when he was ready for them to. I think it's a big part of why that Heat team was so successful and of course we all know while Wade was the best player on the 06 Heat and Zo didn't even start he was the soul of the team turning around each game when he hit the floor.

[No-more-rings]

[

2. 1959 Bob Cousy - I see Cousy as his generation's Magic or Nash. I think players who can get a team to run and find the open guy on the break are the most valuable kinds of players to have on offense, and there's not been very many really high-level transition captains. Cousy was the first. No real way to say for sure which Cousy year was the best, but I can't find anything wrong with this one; the Celts won a title, and his passing was probably at its apex here.

I hate to break it to you, but Cousy was nothing like Nash or Magic. At all. His scoring was way to weak compared to theirs, playmaking was good, but also certainly not on their level. And Cousy led offenses weren't consistently good/great like Nash and Magic's.

Like there's no way his actual ability warrants a top 40 spot. Pretty unfair to players who were flat out better.

[liamliam1234]

the fact Barry was left off the last project was outright gross, lol.

Maybe if the list was longer but with only 40 players, I don't think any of the selections in the last peaks project was particularly egregious. Even among SFs, Barry has to compete with Pippen and Bernard King, and both were left off the list as well. Hopefully we have enough participation this time around to keep the project going until 50 or more to include more great players.

Not "particularly egregious", but Barry being completely dismissed for leading his team to a title in favour of Kevin McHale, and to a lesser extent Bob Lanier, is much more a reflection of the minor voting collective at the time than where Barry deserves to be placed. Do Pippen or King (or Hill or Havlicek) lead the 1975 Warriors to a title in Barry's place? Maybe, and it is fair to say they could get close, but I personally doubt it.

If interest maintains, I will make the effort to continue the project past forty, but speaking for myself, after Reed/Frazier/Harden/Barry, I kind-of lose track of the separation because no one else really evidences a normal championship ceiling.

After those four, I just have a mishmash of options:

Guards:

• 2003 Kidd
• 1996-97 Hardaway
• 2007 Davis?
• 2009 Billups???
• Presumably some others. Drexler, Payton, Isiah not out of the question. Would love to vote for Moncrief if anyone can offer an especially convincing argument, but probably a major long-shot.

Wings:

• The four mentioned above
• Baylor
• Maybe Reggie?

Bigs:

• 1999-2000 Mourning
• 2018 Davis
• 2006 Brand
• Bob Lanier
• Bob McAdoo
• Bob Pettit
• Some willingness to entertain other more unusual options, presumably tied to defensive impact (tough to argue Hawkins over any of the above, although people are welcome to try), but again, would need to hear a convincing comparative case

And because so many of those players are massively flawed or did not make deep playoffs runs (and in fact may have been unable to make deep playoff runs), choosing between them feels like a half-step above flipping a coin.

[WarriorGM]

But so we're clear, I'm not arguing for ANY of these player-seasons as of this stage of the project. I also hate the narrative of "carry job" as it pertains to '75 Barry, fwiw.

Why does "carry job" not fit the bill? The term never fits or there was a characteristic of that run that is inaccurate in comparison to Hakeem's 1994 run for example?

[LA Bird]

the fact Barry was left off the last project was outright gross, lol.

Maybe if the list was longer but with only 40 players, I don't think any of the selections in the last peaks project was particularly egregious. Even among SFs, Barry has to compete with Pippen and Bernard King, and both were left off the list as well. Hopefully we have enough participation this time around to keep the project going until 50 or more to include more great players.

Not "particularly egregious", but Barry being completely dismissed for leading his team to a title in favour of Kevin McHale, and to a lesser extent Bob Lanier, is much more a reflection of the minor voting collective at the time than where Barry deserves to be placed.

Several players who were never title leaders have already placed above Barry in this peaks list - why not a few more? I probably wouldn't pick McHale over Barry myself because of the playoffs decline but both him and Lanier are reasonably solid picks at this stage. Even our own oldschool expert (70sFan) had Lanier and McHale over Barry FWIW in the last peaks project.

Do Pippen or King (or Hill or Havlicek) lead the 1975 Warriors to a title in Barry's place? Maybe, and it is fair to say they could get close, but I personally doubt it.

Can Barry's personality coexist with Michael Jordan long enough to win 6 titles before he is traded? Players should be judged within the context of their own team, not how well they would thrive when plugged into another player's role on a different team. And I don't think it is a given that Barry himself will lead the 75 Warriors to a title if we run the season back and play it a second time. If the Warriors didn't have such good defense and depth, they might not have even reached the finals with his dud in G7 of the Western finals. Barry himself said:

"And when I sucked in that Game 7, my teammates played such great defense, they held Chicago scoreless for seven minutes when I was 2-for-14 or something ridiculous. If it weren’t for my teammates playing at that level, I would have never had a chance to come back in and play reasonably well the last five minutes of the game for us to be able to win that conference title."

Barry should definitely get some credit as the leader of a championship team but it wasn't a very dominant postseason run individually or as a team. I personally find Bernard King's 84 playoff run to be more impressive, despite not winning the title.

[liamliam1234]

Maybe if the list was longer but with only 40 players, I don't think any of the selections in the last peaks project was particularly egregious. Even among SFs, Barry has to compete with Pippen and Bernard King, and both were left off the list as well. Hopefully we have enough participation this time around to keep the project going until 50 or more to include more great players.

Not "particularly egregious", but Barry being completely dismissed for leading his team to a title in favour of Kevin McHale, and to a lesser extent Bob Lanier, is much more a reflection of the minor voting collective at the time than where Barry deserves to be placed.

Several players who were never title leaders have already placed above Barry in this peaks list - why not a few more?

Because the evidence those players could lead a team to a championship was rather substantial — although I personally would only be voting for many of those names now-ish.

I probably wouldn't pick McHale over Barry myself because of the playoffs decline but both him and Lanier are reasonably solid picks at this stage. Even our own oldschool expert (70sFan) had Lanier and McHale over Barry FWIW in the last peaks project.

Okay, and elgee did not.

Do Pippen or King (or Hill or Havlicek) lead the 1975 Warriors to a title in Barry's place? Maybe, and it is fair to say they could get close, but I personally doubt it.

Can Barry's personality coexist with Michael Jordan long enough to win 6 titles before he is traded?

Oh, should Rodman and Draymond also receive high positions here for how well they functioned as supplemental pieces?

Players should be judged within the context of their own team, not how well they would thrive when plugged into another player's role on a different team.

Strong, strong, strong disagree, both for the above supplemental player comment and for how intergenerational comparisons implicitly and explicitly operate.

And I don't think it is a given that Barry himself will lead the 75 Warriors to a title if we run the season back and play it a second time.

Who said anything was ever guaranteed.

If the Warriors didn't have such good defense and depth, they might not have even reached the finals with his dud in G7 of the Western finals.

Yes, that is how teams work. Fair criticism in the top ten; moot point in the mid-to-late 30s.

Barry should definitely get some credit as the leader of a championship team but it wasn't a very dominant postseason run individually or as a team.

If team domination gets you nowhere, who cares? And basically every remaining more dominant individual run was in a much lower sample and supported by a weaker regular season sample.

I personally find Bernard King's 84 playoff run to be more impressive, despite not winning the title.

Matched BPM even though BPM has no real means of assessing high-value passing like Barry’s (although granted Barry’s DBPM is likely inflating his actual defensive value because of his strong steal metrics). The two forty-point games against the Celtics are nice, but he was not offering much beyond that. Credit due for the Pistons series, of course, but having a nice series against a 4-seed hardly surmounts leading your team to a Finals sweep.

[cecilthesheep]

[

2. 1959 Bob Cousy - I see Cousy as his generation's Magic or Nash. I think players who can get a team to run and find the open guy on the break are the most valuable kinds of players to have on offense, and there's not been very many really high-level transition captains. Cousy was the first. No real way to say for sure which Cousy year was the best, but I can't find anything wrong with this one; the Celts won a title, and his passing was probably at its apex here.

I hate to break it to you, but Cousy was nothing like Nash or Magic. At all. His scoring was way to weak compared to theirs, playmaking was good, but also certainly not on their level. And Cousy led offenses weren't consistently good/great like Nash and Magic's.

Like there's no way his actual ability warrants a top 40 spot. Pretty unfair to players who were flat out better.

Huh, I looked at offensive ratings for Cousy's teams, and you're right that he didn't guarantee a great offense ... but weirdly enough, he did guarantee a top-3 offense (and usually the best in the league) until Russell came along. I know ORtg from back then has to be an estimate at best, and I've always been high on Russell's offensive value through passing, rebounding, etc - so what I'm saying is that I have no idea what this means. Wondering if I shouldn't change my vote, at least to a pre-Russell year.

[LA Bird]

Final totals as at the deadline were:

1) 19 Harden = 11.0 points
T2) 69 Reed = 9.0 points
T2) 18 Harden = 9.0 points
T4) 75 Barry = 4.5 points
T4) 15 Davis = 4.5 points

19 Harden wins.