RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #2 (Michael Jordan)

Moderators: penbeast0, PaulieWal, Clyde Frazier, Doctor MJ, trex_8063

BigBoss23
Junior
Posts: 400
And1: 486
Joined: May 11, 2020

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #2 

Post#21 » by BigBoss23 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:10 pm

trex_8063 wrote:1. Michael Jordan
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3. Tim Duncan


I've kind of laid out the gist of my thinking wrt MJ v KAJ in prior posts itt [and the last one]. Boils down to my belief that MJ's career value is roughly similar to Kareem's, once factoring in some consideration of era strength (though I'll freely state that I think Kareem's probably go the raw edge in terms of simple in-era value; though not as big as Kareem's longevity edge [because I simply feel Jordan peaked higher, and was more playoff resilient]).

But Jordan's larger-than-life image, his importance on the evolution of the game, the population expansion of the game that he [maybe more than any other ONE player] drove.....these considerations give him the edge for me.


I hope to make a large post on Tim Duncan soon (if not this thread, than the next). One of the most singularly underrated [by the mainstream] superstars in NBA history, and really needs serious consideration [even right now].


On this board, I'd argue that Duncan is definitely not underrated overall.

I see him as a poor man's Hakeem (less dominant on defense because of athleticism, and definitely the inferior scorer but better passer). Could Duncan have done what Hakeem did and vice versa?
70sFan
RealGM
Posts: 29,599
And1: 24,917
Joined: Aug 11, 2015
 

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #2 

Post#22 » by 70sFan » Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:15 pm

limbo wrote:This basically comes down to MJ vs. Kareem for me, and i'm leaning towards Jordan. I'm more impressed with his prime and the competition he dominated and the fact that he was able to be the clear best player on all 6 of his title-winning teams, while Kareem was 2nd behind Magic in 1985 (despite winning FMVP that year), behind Magic and Worthy, and somewhere in the mix with Cooper and AC Green in 1987, and was largely carried in the 1988 postseason...

I will say that Kareem's huge edge in longevity is making me hesitant a bit, so i'll wait a bit more before i cast my vote to see what people here will have to say in the discussion.

I wonder what people think about the competition Kareem was dominated on the Bucks in the early 70's? I really don't see the Bucks winning against many great teams in Kareem's period there. The Sixers in 1970 looked decent at 3.32 SRS (i guess that was good enough for 3rd best at the time, lol), but they were not equipped at all with anyone who can defend a 7'2'' dude... Their biggest dude was 6'10 and he played like 27 minutes per game... The rest of their core was relatively small. Obviously, i don't blame Kareem for the Bucks losing to the Knicks in the next round because they were a legit juggernaut at the time.

In '71 they win the title, but they don't really beat anyone of note. The best team they faced in the PS that run was a Lakers team without Jerry West, lol... The Baltimore Bullets were a .500 team and that's how they got in the Finals... '72 they just beat one average team before losing to the Lakers. In '73 they lose to an underdog team. In '74 they beat a Chicago team that was past their best years and didn't have anyone to guard Kareem and then lost in the Finals to a 3.42 SRS Celtics team...

So basically the best teams that Kareem beat in a straight up Playoff series when he was with the Bucks were like 3.20 SRS level teams such as the 1970 Sixers or the offensively inept 1974 Bulls with no one to guard Kareem 1v1... While losing as a favorite on paper in 1974 and 1973. Lost in a juggernaut vs. juggernaut matchup in 1972 to the Lakers and lost to the Knicks in the 1970 although those Knicks was simply much better than his team, so it was whatever.

Any thoughts on this?

First of all - you can't compare SRS from 14 teams league to SRS from 30 teams league. 3.32 SRS is an excellent number in much smaller league, it doesn't matter than now, with higher variance caused by bigger population, it's not nearly as impressive.

Bucks beat 3rd SRS Sixers, 4th SRS Lakers (without West) and 4th SRS Bulls. Not to mention that the Bullets beat champions Knicks in 1971, so looking at their RS SRS probably undersells them a bit (a lot of people will probably tell in future that James faced weak Heat team in 2020 based on SRS). They also played 3rd SRS Celtics and 1st SRS Lakers to a draw basically.

I don't think Imhoff/Jackson rotation is bad at all. Of course, they were shorter than Kareem but both had significant weight advantage over rookie Kareem (Jackson was reported as muscled 260 lbs grown man).

I don't see how 1974 Bulls were past it either - they went to the WCF in next year, almost beating champions Warriors. It was the best defensive version of this Bulls team and they won 54 games, which is thier 2nd best record in the 1970s. If this version of Bulls wasn't legit, then no version was.

I'm not sure what do you expect anything else from team perspective. Talking about how each team didn't have anyone to guard Kareem is strange to me as well. Should we discount every Jordan and James series that they won when opponents didn't have anyone good to guard them? Then I guess whole 2020 run doesn't count for James...
Doctor MJ
Senior Mod
Senior Mod
Posts: 52,740
And1: 21,676
Joined: Mar 10, 2005
Location: Cali
     

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #2 

Post#23 » by Doctor MJ » Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:24 pm

Hey folks, thought I'd just mention here that if they're interested in voting in the POY vote they should PM me.

The rule is basically that you need to have made yourself known in the board's POY community before now. So that could have been in this year's POY Discussion thread or by having been an active voting member in the past.

If you have any questions, please either PM me or post in the POY Discussion thread. If you'd like to be added to the voting panel, just PM me with that request.
Getting ready for the RealGM 100 on the PC Board

Come join the WNBA Board if you're a fan!
User avatar
Dr Positivity
RealGM
Posts: 62,315
And1: 16,263
Joined: Apr 29, 2009
       

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #2 

Post#24 » by Dr Positivity » Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:41 pm

Kareem vs MJ

My take is that I don't know who is the better PLAYER between Lebron, Jordan and Kareem. They were all considered clear generational guys in their time, have very impressive skillsets, held up in the playoffs. Jordan is better offensively than Kareem for sure, but I would give Kareem the defensive advantage hands down due to his position. In terms of competition and level of play strategy wise while I definitely side with Lebron over Kareem, Kareem and Jordan were in the league 5 years together and 37 year old Kareem and rookie Jordan both made the same 2nd team All NBA, and would have both made 1st team the next year if not for Jordan's injury. Shooting improved in the 90s and Jordan thrived nonetheless it's only a little bit of a margin. With that said I have problems with the 70s for other reasons including ABA, expansion and drugs.

With that in mind I have to vote for Kareem based on longevity. Jordan has 11 superstar seasons including his rookie year. Kareem's 11th season is 1980 and he did a LOT after that. He finished top 5 in MVP 4 times in between 81-86, a finals MVP, etc. Like Kareem after 1980 is almost equal to Anthony Davis entire career so far or something.

I have thoughts on Kareem vs Russell, but I feel Jordan is the one to beat here, so I think I'll save them for the next thread.

1. Kareem
2. Jordan
3. Russell
Liberate The Zoomers
70sFan
RealGM
Posts: 29,599
And1: 24,917
Joined: Aug 11, 2015
 

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #2 

Post#25 » by 70sFan » Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:52 pm

From last thread (thanks to limbo):

MJ:

1986: vs. Celtics = 47.3 ppg on .584 %TS [+4.3 rTS] (-4.6 rDRtg, 1st ranked defense)
1988: vs. Cavaliers = 45.2 ppg on .632 %TS [+9.4 rTS] (-2.0 rDRtg, 5th ranked defense)
1988: vs. Pistons = 27.4 ppg on .549 %TS [+1.1 rTS] (-2.7 rDRtg, 2nd ranked defense)
1989: vs. Cavaliers = 39.8 ppg on .598 %TS [+6.1 rTS] (-4.9 rDRtg, 2nd ranked defense)
1989: vs. Pistons = 29.7 ppg on .561 %TS [+2.4 rTS] (-3.1 rDRtg, 3rd ranked defense)
1990: vs. Pistons = 32.1 ppg on .566 %TS [+2.9 rTS] (-4.6 rDRtg, 2nd ranked defense)
1991: vs. Pistons = 29.8 ppg on .646 %TS [+10.3 rTS] (-3.3 rDRtg, 4th ranked defense)
1991: vs. Lakers = 31.2 ppg on .612 %TS [+7.8 rTS] (-2.9 rDRtg, 5th ranked defense)
1992: vs. Knicks = 31.1 ppg on .539 %TS [+0.8 rTS] (-4.0 rDRtg, 2nd ranked defense)
1992: vs. Blazers = 35.8 ppg on .617 %TS [+8.6 rTS] (-4.0 rDRtg, 3rd ranked defense)
1993: vs. Knicks = 32.2 ppg on .522 %TS [-1.4 rTS] (-8.3 rDRtg, 1st ranked defense)
1996: vs. Heat = 30.0 ppg on .609 %TS [+6.7 rTS] (-3.8 rDRtg, 6th ranked defense)
1996: vs. Knicks = 36.0 ppg on .534 %TS [-0.8 rTS] (-4.1 rDRtg, 4th ranked defense)
1996: vs. Sonics = 27.3 ppg on .538 %TS [-0.4 rTS] (-5.5 rDRtg, 2nd ranked defense)
1997: vs. Hawks = 26.6 ppg on .506 %TS [-3.0 rTS] (-4.4 rDRtg, 3rd ranked defense)
1997: vs. Heat = 30.2 ppg on .475 %TS [-6.1 rTS] (-6.1 rDRtg, 1st ranked defense)
1998: vs. Pacers = 31.7 ppg on .556 %TS [+3.2 rTS] (-3.4 rDrtg, 5th ranked defense)

Kareem:

1970: vs Knicks = 34.2 on .585 %TS [+7.4 rTS] (-6.6 rDRtg, 1st ranked defense)
1972: vs Warriors = 22.8 on .432 %TS [-7.2 rTS] (-3.0 rDRtg, 4th ranked defense)
1972: vs Lakers = 33.7 on .432 %TS [-2.2 rTS] (-5.3 rDRtg, 2nd ranked defense)
1973: vs Warriors = 22.8 on .447 %TS [-5.1 rTS] (-2.8 rDRtg, 6th ranked defense)
1974: vs Bulls = 34.8 on .673 %TS [+17.0 rTS] (-4.1 rDRtg, 1st ranked defense)
1974: vs Celtics = 32.6 on .673 %TS [+4.9 rTS] (-2.6 rDRtg, 6th ranked defense)
1978: vs Sonics = 27.0 on .526 %TS [+1.1 rTS] (-3.2 rDRtg, 3rd ranked defense)
1979: vs Sonics = 28.8 on .617 %TS [+8.7 rTS] (-3.7 rDRtg, 1st ranked defense)
1980: vs Suns = 31.8 on .663 %TS [+13.2 rTS] (-3.1 rDRtg, 5th ranked defense)
1980: vs Sonics = 30.6 on .599 %TS [+6.8 rTS] (-5.1 rDRtg, 3rd ranked defense)
1980: vs Sixers = 33.4 on .578 %TS [+4.7 rTS] (-5.3 rDRtg, 2nd ranked defense)
1982: vs Suns = 31.8 on .663 %TS [+13.2 rTS] (-4.5 rDRtg, 4th ranked defense)

Wilt:

1960: vs Celtics = 30.5 ppg on .510 %TS [+4.7 rTS] (-6.2 rDRtg, 1st ranked defense)
1962: vs Nationals = 37.0 ppg on .500 %TS [+2.1 rTS] (-2.0 rDRtg, 2nd ranked defense)
1962: vs Celtics = 33.6 ppg on .515 %TS [+3.6 rTS] (-8.5 rDRtg, 1st ranked defense)
1964: vs Celtics = 29.2 ppg on .509 %TS [+2.4 rTS] (-10.8 rDRtg, 1st ranked defense)
1965: vs Celtics = 30.1 ppg on .575 %TS [+9.6 rTS] (-9.4 rDRtg, 1st ranked defense)
1966: vs Celtics = 28.0 ppg on .500 %TS [+1.3 rTS] (-6.6 rDRtg, 1st ranked defense)
1967: vs Celtics = 21.6 ppg on .564 %TS [+7.1 rTS] (-5.1 rDRtg, 1st ranked defense)
1967: vs Warriors = 17.7 ppg on .497 %TS [+0.4 rTS] (-3.0 rDRtg, 2nd ranked defense)
1968: vs Celtics = 22.1 ppg on .486 %TS [-1.2 rTS] (-4.4 rDRtg, 2nd ranked defense)

Non-volume scoring Wilt:

1969: vs Warriors = 12.0 ppg on .472 %TS [-1.9 rTS] (-2.0 rDRtg, 5th ranked defense)
1969: vs Celtics = 11.7 ppg on .476 %TS [-2.5 rTS] (-6.4 rDRtg, 1st ranked defense)
1970: vs Knicks = 23.3 on .576 %TS [+6.5 rTS] (-6.6 rDRtg, 1st ranked defense)
1971: vs Bucks = 22.0 ppg on .489 %TS [-1.1 rTS] (-4.1 rDRtg, 1st ranked defense)
1972: vs Bulls = 14.5 on .624 %TS [+12.0 rTS] (-3.6 rDRtg, 3rd ranked defense)
1972: vs Bucks = 10.8 ppg on .472 %TS [-3.2 rTS] (-5.3 rDRtg, 1st ranked defense)
1973: vs Warriors = 7.0 ppg on .675 %TS [+17.7 rTS] (-2.8 rDRtg, 6th ranked defense)
1973: vs Warriors = 11.6 ppg on .494 %TS [-0.4 rTS] (-4.3 rDRtg, 4th ranked defense)
Dutchball97
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,406
And1: 5,001
Joined: Mar 28, 2020
   

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #2 

Post#26 » by Dutchball97 » Fri Oct 16, 2020 8:55 pm

On the topic of Duncan. When I first started posting here I saw him as a fringe top 10 player. I hadn't seen him live in his prime and based on his reputation alone you wouldn't think he was actually better than guys like Shaq, Kobe, Bird and Magic.

Right now I'm strongly considering Duncan for the #5 spot. His accomplishments are among the best ever and I'd agree he's definitely underrated in the mainstream but likely not among many regulars on this board.
User avatar
Texas Chuck
Senior Mod - NBA TnT Forum
Senior Mod - NBA TnT Forum
Posts: 91,716
And1: 97,216
Joined: May 19, 2012
Location: Purgatory
   

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #2 

Post#27 » by Texas Chuck » Fri Oct 16, 2020 9:59 pm

BigBoss23 wrote:I see him as a poor man's Hakeem (less dominant on defense because of athleticism, ?


No doubt Dream was more athletic, but I strongly disagree Dream was more dominant on defense because of it. Curious if you could elaborate on how you think he was more dominant(you already explained the why). I hope its not just blocks/steals because obviously defensive positioning and deterrence matter a great deal.
ThunderBolt wrote:I’m going to let some of you in on a little secret I learned on realgm. If you don’t like a thread, not only do you not have to comment but you don’t even have to open it and read it. You’re welcome.
limbo
Veteran
Posts: 2,799
And1: 2,680
Joined: Jun 30, 2019

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #2 

Post#28 » by limbo » Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:00 pm

70sFan wrote:First of all - you can't compare SRS from 14 teams league to SRS from 30 teams league. 3.32 SRS is an excellent number in much smaller league, it doesn't matter than now, with higher variance caused by bigger population, it's not nearly as impressive.


Sure, it's not a 1:1 perfect cross-era comparison tool, but it's a good metric to use for establishing a ballpark on how well certain teams dominated their in-era competition. Also, i think it's ElGee who noted that having a higher SRS in 1990 is probably more impressive than in 1971, due to it being probably more harder to achieve in a bigger league with wider talent pool.

Like, i don't find having a 0.91 SRS and a +0.5 Net Rtg. impressive in a league that has just added three new horrible expansions teams... And that's the team Kareem faced in the Finals to win his first championship... You can hop, skip & jump claiming that team defeated a defending-champion Knicks team with a crippled Willis Reed in 7 games, i still won't find that impressive relative to any era...

Bucks beat 3rd SRS Sixers, 4th SRS Lakers (without West) and 4th SRS Bulls. Not to mention that the Bullets beat champions Knicks in 1971, so looking at their RS SRS probably undersells them a bit (a lot of people will probably tell in future that James faced weak Heat team in 2020 based on SRS). They also played 3rd SRS Celtics and 1st SRS Lakers to a draw basically.


The Sixers were probably the 3rd best team in the league in 1970, yes, but come on, the league was probably in a worse state at that time than it had been in the 60's in terms of strength, let alone post merger and further into the future... only 6 out of 14 teams in the league had a positive net rating, and one of those was the Hawks barely at +0.4.

In 1971 Lakers didn't even win 50 games despite expansion and in the Playoffs they faced Milwaukee without West (their best player, and Erickson, another key rotational player)... I don't even know how they got past Chicago. Major choke job by the Bulls losing that series where everyone was shooting terribly and it still went to 7...

Well the 2020 Heat massacred the Bucks and Celtics (much better teams than the '71 Sixers) much more convincingly than the Bullets defeated the Sixers in 1971, which went to 7 games, and then another 7 game against the Knicks with Willis Reed clearly not being what he was anymore.

I don't see how 1974 Bulls were past it either - they went to the WCF in next year, almost beating champions Warriors. It was the best defensive version of this Bulls team and they won 54 games, which is thier 2nd best record in the 1970s. If this version of Bulls wasn't legit, then no version was.


They weren't a bad team, in fact, i said they were probably the best team Kareem defeated in a Playoff series when he was on the Bucks... either them or the 1970 Sixers (he had less help in 1970, fwiw), but they were horrible offensively and a good matchup for Kareem (which were most teams who didn't have a proper 7 footer at the time, due to the nature of the league).

Anyway, i'm not saying we should condemn Kareem for it, i just found it odd how the best team Kareem actually beat in the Playoffs in the 70's was a +3.1 net rtg. Chicago Bulls team... But okay, Kareem was usually losing to every team he was suppose to lose, so it's not that big of a deal... Except in 1972 against the Warriors which was a massive choke job against one of maybe two teams in the league that actually had someone who could defend Kareem in the post. And i also don't like the 1978 loss vs. Seattle... The Sonics weren't as good as they were in 1979, Kareem had a good enough cast to win but he shot .526 %TS from the floor, had more turnovers than assists and was horrible in the FT department. But ok, since i really hate 3-game series it's not as bad... Many other greats would look also far worse if we cut some of their 6 or 7-game series into 3 game sample sizes...
User avatar
Joao Saraiva
RealGM
Posts: 13,329
And1: 6,138
Joined: Feb 09, 2011
   

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #2 

Post#29 » by Joao Saraiva » Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:04 pm

Dutchball97 wrote:On the topic of Duncan. When I first started posting here I saw him as a fringe top 10 player. I hadn't seen him live in his prime and based on his reputation alone you wouldn't think he was actually better than guys like Shaq, Kobe, Bird and Magic.

Right now I'm strongly considering Duncan for the #5 spot. His accomplishments are among the best ever and I'd agree he's definitely underrated in the mainstream but likely not among many regulars on this board.


He is underrated cause he was "boring". While all the players you mentioned score a ton of points and make offensive plays in spectacular fashion, Duncan was always going for the right moves in the post. Very fundamental. I don't see him as a great scorer as Kobe for example, but he was still a very capable one. His defense however is among the elite of basketball, I'd probably rank him 3rd behind Hakeem and Bill Russell. And he did it for a tooooooooooon of time in the league. His longevity brings him close to the top. Producing since his rookie season and until the very end of his career. He was still very important for the 13 or 14 Spurs runs.
“These guys have been criticized the last few years for not getting to where we’re going, but I’ve always said that the most important thing in sports is to keep trying. Let this be an example of what it means to say it’s never over.” - Jerry Sloan
mailmp
Sophomore
Posts: 173
And1: 124
Joined: Oct 16, 2020

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #2 

Post#30 » by mailmp » Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:06 pm

Hi. Are newbies able to give their ballots on this (with explanation)? Been following along for a while, thought it might be fun to finally participate in something like this.
User avatar
Joao Saraiva
RealGM
Posts: 13,329
And1: 6,138
Joined: Feb 09, 2011
   

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #2 

Post#31 » by Joao Saraiva » Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:08 pm

Texas Chuck wrote:
BigBoss23 wrote:I see him as a poor man's Hakeem (less dominant on defense because of athleticism, ?


No doubt Dream was more athletic, but I strongly disagree Dream was more dominant on defense because of it. Curious if you could elaborate on how you think he was more dominant(you already explained the why). I hope its not just blocks/steals because obviously defensive positioning and deterrence matter a great deal.


I think Hakeem covered a ton of ground, more than Duncan for sure. I'd say he covered as many ground as Kevin Garnett but with an epic rim protection even above Duncan (and that is saying something). Hakeem was definitely a beast on defense. I have him as #1 all time peak wise and prime wise on the defensive end.

I don't think he could have done what Duncan did, because for a big portion of his career his passing was suspicious. Also Duncan did it based on longevity, something Hakeem is not bad at but his prime and peak are clearly above other years. But I don't think Duncan could replicate what Hakeem did either, he didn't peak as high and wasn't able to dominate at the same rate in the low/mid/high post. Hakeem's post moves are among the best in NBA, on pair with Kareem's. (at his best at least)
“These guys have been criticized the last few years for not getting to where we’re going, but I’ve always said that the most important thing in sports is to keep trying. Let this be an example of what it means to say it’s never over.” - Jerry Sloan
mailmp
Sophomore
Posts: 173
And1: 124
Joined: Oct 16, 2020

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #2 

Post#32 » by mailmp » Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:38 pm

Okay, let me know if this is not okay!

1. Bill Russell
This is not like pure career value, right? If so then I see the argument for Kareem. But Kareem won as a rookie and then did not win another title until rookie Magic closed out game 6 for him (and that sucks, but missing those games is a big deal!). So I think a guy who won 11/13, clearly elevated his rosters massively, and carried over success from his NCAA career, is a pretty strong argument. And I think a lot of the arguments made for him already are smart, so I will not restate them. Kareem’s league was not really notably better because of the ABA division in my eyes, and if we are weighing eras relative to each other that heavily then Tim Duncan probably deserves this spot. Jordan and Kareem won with very good teams; Russell won even with relatively weak ones. Is that an okay explanation?

2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Career value does matter though, so when you look at being the league’s best player 1970-80 at minimum, winning six MVPs (and deserving more), and winning six titles, on top of playing for twenty years and being the all-time points leader, I think Jordan sitting so many seasons costs him there rather than adding to it (like some people seem to act). And then as a bonus Kareem was unbelievable in the NCAA too and could have been similarly awesome in the NBA.

3. Michael Jordan
Has an argument for best peak and I would not contest best two to five year period. But missed most of 1986 and 1995 and missed 1994 and did not really add value after 1998. I think he could have secured this if he had the drive to keep playing the game, but he was happy to stop with his six. And for a lot of people that is enough, and that is cool! But I would rather have twenty years of Kareem or thirteen years of Russell. :)
Bidofo
Pro Prospect
Posts: 776
And1: 975
Joined: Sep 20, 2014
     

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #2 

Post#33 » by Bidofo » Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:53 pm

Just going to quote myself from the last thread since my order is the same. I will say though, after looking more into 78 KAJ and some useful insight from 70sFan and DQuinn1575, I bumped that season from tier 4 to tier 3. I think I was too harsh on his playoff performance. Still doesn't change the final vote.

Spoiler:
Bidofo wrote:Criteria:
I'll be making my list based on cumulative value for the entirety of a player's career. Basically looking at each year and thinking by how much would that season improve the championship-winning odds of the average NBA team (though I will be taking into account scalability on better teams as well). This means that even late-career years on low minutes, such as '13/'14 Duncan, add value to a player's career. There's no way I'm going to be able to calculate a specific number a la ElGee (which I find very arbitrary), so I'll be putting individual seasons into tiers, and pretty much gauging who has the most value. My analysis of a player's season is based on statistics + eye test + other good analysis, though I will say the further back in time we go the less I can rely on eye test, so more emphasis will be placed on statistics (accounting for era of course) and what other good posts in this project tell me about the player.

In order to grade an individual season, I look at RS+PS with more emphasis on PS performance. Missed games and underperformance in either matter though.

Pretty excited about this project, so let's jump into it. This is the first time I'm actually looking closely at each season for all these players and actually ordering them. For all I know, the GOAT list might be something different than what I had previously thought based on guestimating, so hopefully I learn something.

To start, I have 3 names in mind that in my opinion separate themselves from the rest of the pack: Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Michael Jordan, and LeBron James. They have the 3 best primes in history, and so the best collection of top tier seasons. One might ask why Russell, Duncan, Wilt, Shaq, etc. might not be in contention. KAJ and James have a longevity advantage compared to those guys, and stronger primes anyway. Jordan has weaker longevity (though still very good; nothing like Bird/Magic), but I'm of the opinion his prime is the best in history (he jammed GOAT level seasons in a relatively short amount of time). I will say though that Bill Russell is in the back of my mind, so it could very easily be a top 4 for me, but not particularly right now. I am open to discussion ofc.

I'll be ranking individual player seasons against his own other seasons, so each column is in order of goodness, but there is no ranking between player seasons within tiers. I'll also give the order of total value added within the tier. The tiers for these 3 would go as follows (note: I'm labeling them numerically, but that's going to be relative to the candidates remaining. Since these are the top tiers anyway though, considering we are voting for the GOAT, I'll try giving the tiers appropriate names as well):

Tier 1: GOAT seasons
1991 Jordan 2012 James 1977 KAJ
1990 Jordan 2009 James 1974 KAJ
1989 Jordan 2013 James 1980 KAJ

Some of the greatest seasons in history. From an individual perspective, pretty much perfect years from end-to-end. Dominating RS, dominating PS. 91 Jordan, 12 James, and 77 KAJ are their peaks. Jordan > James > KAJ.

Tier 2: GOAT seasons...except...
1992 Jordan 2016 James 1971 KAJ
1993 Jordan 2017 James 1970 KAJ
1996 Jordan 2020 James 1979 KAJ
1997 Jordan 2018 James
1988 Jordan 2014 James

Seasons, for one reason or another, have something about them that precludes them from the GOAT tier.

92+93 Jordan was worse on defense than his earlier, GOAT-motor years. I'm also of the opinion that as Jordan got older and resorted more to the post, he was exerting less pressure on the opposing defense, but he was so damn good idk if it mattered. I'm confident 96/97 Jordan > 93 Jordan on defense, though I'm not sure vs. 92 Jordan, but the offensive trend of going to the post more continued. His RS in 96 looks great and it was, but I feel as though some of his stats might be inflated in an expansion league; his post-season was just as good though, and against some great competition, but I think 93 was more of a carryjob. 97 Jordan is pretty much 96 Jordan with a worse playoffs. 88 Jordan was just an athletic freak, but raw offensively, which was kind of exposed by the Pistons at the end of the year (Magic tore up that same Pistons defense a series later).

I think after the 13 series against the Spurs his offense reached another level (when healthy) in terms of scoring skillset+confidence, and also commenced LeCoast. 16 was his best regular season in this group, and he had a very strong finish to the playoffs. 17 James had a mediocre regular season, which is pretty much the only thing I'm docking him for here. It was his best scoring playoffs imo and kept his team in the game whenever he was on the floor against the GOAT team. 20 James was great end-to-end but I don't think we saw him dominate like prior since he didn't need to. 18 James is pretty much 20 James with worse defense. 14 James had the worst playoffs of them all, which is pretty crazy since he was a scoring machine starting this year, but his RS was mediocre like in 17 and I don't think he upped his defense in the playoffs enough.

Young Kareem was a beast and made the Bucks historic level good almost instantly. I dock some points for a weaker league, though I think the strength of the league is perhaps up for debate. He was a worse passer than his later years. I am open to opinions about his defense these years. I prefer the more experienced versions of Kareem that are in tier 1. 79 was the second of two meh regular seasons but he had a good playoffs and performed much better against the Sonics than in the previous year. James > Jordan >> KAJ.

Tier 3: Relatively flawed, high level seasons
1998 Jordan 2015 James 1972 KAJ
....................2011 James 1973 KAJ
....................2010 James 1981 KAJ
.......................................1978 KAJ

I'd say the last season of Jordan's prime belongs here. He carried the Bulls through an injury-riddled RS and to the chip, but he wasn't tasked to do much else. He also faced less than stellar defenses in the playoffs. I think this season is the best of this tier though.

15 James had back issues, but the Cavs were pretty dominant starting around the middle of the season. Not a portable LeBron season so he gets docked for that, but I'm confident in saying if he at least had a healthy Kyrie, the Finals goes 7 games. 11 James was actually really good up until the Finals lol he dominated two tough defenses b2b in the Celtics and Bulls and had a great defensive season in total, but those last 6 games hurt. 10 James had a dominant RS but was bad against the Celtics, whether it be to injury or whatever. I think it's the worst season here.

Not a fan of 72 and 73 KAJ. Dominant RS results, but didn't play well in the PS. Much of this was due to going against some of the best defenders ever at his position, though. 81 KAJ got dominated and upset by Moses in the first round, and that ended up ultimately being the last season where he was the clearcut #1 player on the team. KAJ > LeBron > Jordan.

Tier 4: Low-level MVP seasons
1987 Jordan 2007 James 1976 KAJ
....................2008 James 1978 KAJ
....................2006 James

87 Jordan was very raw despite the gaudy scoring numbers with questionable defense. Didn't really do much in the playoffs against just the 9th best defense. Obviously a long ways away from prime Jordan.

06-08 James tried carrying defensive rosters on offense but couldn't quite do it to the same level 09 James and after could. Worse passing and shooting than his later years, so much worse portability. Hadn't quite put it all together, but could still churn out elite playoff series/performances.

76 KAJ is weird since he missed the playoffs. Idk where else to put him. 78 KAJ had a poor series against the Sonics, who were an elite defense, but it also seems like he didn't do much in the way of stopping the opponent from scoring so well. The Sonics shoot 48% from the field in the series, an improvement from their 45% in the RS. These late 70s seasons of Kareem show the problem of having your big men try to carry the offense I suppose. I've watched very little tape of this series though, so I am open to opinion. KAJ => James >> Jordan.

Tier 5: Strong All-Star seasons
1985 Jordan 2005 James 1982 KAJ
.......................................1983 KAJ
.......................................1984 KAJ
.......................................1985 KAJ
.......................................1986 KAJ
.......................................1987 KAJ

This is where KAJ's longevity really stands out imo. These seasons aren't ordered, I just lumped them together as they are all pretty similar. He enjoyed an easy transition into the second option as Magic hit his prime, but he still had his elite moments (85 Finals). Now not all them are better than 85 Jordan and 05 James, I'd say half are and half aren't. I just didn't want to make another tier that just had him lol. KAJ >>> James ~ Jordan.

Every other season by these guys were injury plagued or 88 KAJ who was just old, so they add minimal value. James and Jordan are ahead of KAJ comfortably among their best seasons. KAJ however adds many more years just below that level (tiers 3-5) to catch up and surpass Jordan, but I don't think it's enough to surpass James. The gap in tier 2 in particular is massive. This ended up being pretty long, so I think I'll do shorter versions for future votes.

EDIT: Feel free to disagree with these evaluations and let me know. There could definitely be some glaring discrepancies in how I graded these seasons and how someone else might, and I'm willing to switch things up given enough reason. Even my final voted order may be inaccurate; I'm really only confident at LeBron being number 1, KAJ and Jordan could be switched, but that's the way I have it as of now.

Waiting to hear arguments for 3rd, I'm thinking Russell but I think Duncan/Shaq/Wilt might be right there.

1. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
2. Michael Jordan
3. ?
User avatar
RSCD3_
RealGM
Posts: 13,932
And1: 7,342
Joined: Oct 05, 2013
 

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #2 

Post#34 » by RSCD3_ » Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:08 am

I have Jordan at No.1 and Kareem at No.2, but I'm wondering what arguments does Bill Russell have over Tim Duncan? I know there's how he dominated his era but I struggle to see if bill russell was that much better than duncan on defense that he surpasses the offensive edge. Is duncan's lengthy post prime underrated?
I came here to do two things: get lost and slice **** up & I'm all out of directions.

Butler removing rearview mirror in his car as a symbol to never look back

Peja Stojakovic wrote:Jimmy butler, with no regard for human life
User avatar
ZeppelinPage
Head Coach
Posts: 6,418
And1: 3,386
Joined: Jun 26, 2008
 

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #2 

Post#35 » by ZeppelinPage » Sat Oct 17, 2020 1:05 am

70sFan wrote:From last thread (thanks to limbo):
Wilt:

1960: vs Celtics = 30.5 ppg on .510 %TS [+4.7 rTS] (-6.2 rDRtg, 1st ranked defense)
1962: vs Nationals = 37.0 ppg on .500 %TS [+2.1 rTS] (-2.0 rDRtg, 2nd ranked defense)
1962: vs Celtics = 33.6 ppg on .515 %TS [+3.6 rTS] (-8.5 rDRtg, 1st ranked defense)
1964: vs Celtics = 29.2 ppg on .509 %TS [+2.4 rTS] (-10.8 rDRtg, 1st ranked defense)
1965: vs Celtics = 30.1 ppg on .575 %TS [+9.6 rTS] (-9.4 rDRtg, 1st ranked defense)
1966: vs Celtics = 28.0 ppg on .500 %TS [+1.3 rTS] (-6.6 rDRtg, 1st ranked defense)
1967: vs Celtics = 21.6 ppg on .564 %TS [+7.1 rTS] (-5.1 rDRtg, 1st ranked defense)
1967: vs Warriors = 17.7 ppg on .497 %TS [+0.4 rTS] (-3.0 rDRtg, 2nd ranked defense)
1968: vs Celtics = 22.1 ppg on .486 %TS [-1.2 rTS] (-4.4 rDRtg, 2nd ranked defense)



Pretty amazing considering Wilt was playing against the 1st ranked defense for 6 of the these 9 series--and the other 3 were against the 2nd ranked defense.
User avatar
ZeppelinPage
Head Coach
Posts: 6,418
And1: 3,386
Joined: Jun 26, 2008
 

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #2 

Post#36 » by ZeppelinPage » Sat Oct 17, 2020 1:08 am

Before I get into it:

I have watched every available piece of footage on Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain (thank you 70sfan.) I have also delved into hours worth of 50s, 60s and 70s footage and studied rules and playstyle of the era, as well as a number of books, articles and newspaper clippings on the players of the era. What I care about most is overall impact and performance in the playoffs, with a slight favor on prime over longevity, as well as the regular season, to a lesser degree. I only slightly factor in championships and accolades, as the former is a team accomplishment and the latter is a subjective perception of impact.


1. Wilt Chamberlain
Most dominant player, at the most important position, with the highest overall impact. Lead two of the greatest teams of all time for their era, with the '67 Sixers having the highest Off Rtg and SRS yet for their time; and the '72 Lakers having the 3rd highest SRS of all time, as well as the highest OPP SRS in the playoffs and winning a ring. Played in (easily) the hardest era in regards to defense because of the rules and playstyle, especially for a big man. The spacing was abysmal, which also made the illegal defense rule non-existent, allowing easy doubles and triples on Wilt. On top of that, the competition of the league in comparison to the talent available on his team had the greatest gap of any player--Wilt had the worst teammates of any superstar in history for most of his career. He was playing against a team that was head and shoulders above the rest of the league, with the greatest coach of all time. In my opinion, for players like Wilt, Oscar and West, there was no other time in NBA history where it was harder to win a ring, simply because Red Auerbach had collected an overwhelming amount of talent in comparison to other teams.

In terms of playoff numbers, Wilt suffered little drop-off, which is incredible considering he was playing against the greatest defensive team and center of all time. Consistently lead a team significantly less talented to game 7s vs the 7-8+ SRS Celtics. Proved he could play defense at a high level later on in his career, but even earlier he would go to another level in the playoffs, where his teams consistently performed better on the defensive side of the ball. He had multiple all-time playoff runs (and that's without stat padding in the 1st round,) especially in '64, where he posted a .323 WS/48--only LeBron, Jordan, and Kareem have posted a higher mark (again, less stat padding, no steals/blocks accounted for, and facing the greatest defensive dynasty ever.)

Wilt also unfortunately played in an era where nutrition, technology and game knowledge were lesser than any player after him. He would usually have to play 3 to 4 straight games in a row, sometimes even in the playoffs, playing 48 minutes. I even found examples where he was playing 5 straight games in a row. He would often not get home till early in the morning and have to play that day, for multiple days in a row, over the course of an 82 game season. This amount of workload is unfathomable for other players and no doubt contributed to injuries over the years, which affected his overall condition. This is something that LeBron and Jordan did not have to go through. The reason I mention this is that Wilt could have been even better in later eras.

The fact that Wilt managed to come out of the 60s with a ring is impressive in and of itself, the talent the Boston Celtics possessed was comparable on a modern scale to a team like the 17 Warriors or 14 Spurs, but for a decade. Unfortunately, he did not have the talent around him that was necessary to compete for a ring until '67.

2. Michael Jordan
Jordan posted insane offensive numbers, minuscule turnover rates and was a force on defense. He took his game to another level in the playoffs, and even though the rules and playstyle of the era suited Jordan, he was still able to impact a team on both ends of the ball at an all-time level. The reason I have him ahead of LeBron would be because of his playoff performances, Jordan consistently performed at the level expected of his talent over the course of his career, and never faltered in the playoffs much like LeBron did in the 2011 Finals. I believe Wilt was an overall more impactful player, but never had quite the coaching or team talent Jordan had--Wilt also had to play in a more difficult era, that was tougher on offense and didn't suit his playstyle as well as Jordan's did.

3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Most efficient scorer of his era, greatest offensive center ever, and solid defender. Unfortunately, Kareem seemed to suffer from match-up issues and under performed in a few different series. I also think he isn't quite at the level of other ATG centers on defense. Regardless, Kareem is no doubt top 5, just not quite at the Wilt/Jordan/LeBron level of impact for a team.
User avatar
2klegend
Bench Warmer
Posts: 1,333
And1: 409
Joined: Mar 31, 2016
     

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #2 

Post#37 » by 2klegend » Sat Oct 17, 2020 1:53 am

Wow Lebron edges out Jordan @ GOAT?? That is crazy to think considering 10 years later, people will forget the legacy of Lebron than MJ.
My Top 100+ GOAT (Peak, Prime, Longevity, Award):
viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1464952
User avatar
Texas Chuck
Senior Mod - NBA TnT Forum
Senior Mod - NBA TnT Forum
Posts: 91,716
And1: 97,216
Joined: May 19, 2012
Location: Purgatory
   

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #2 

Post#38 » by Texas Chuck » Sat Oct 17, 2020 1:57 am

2klegend wrote:Wow Lebron edges out Jordan @ GOAT?? That is crazy to think considering 10 years later, people will forget the legacy of Lebron than MJ.



In ten years literally nobody will have forgotten about Lebron. What are you on about exactly?
ThunderBolt wrote:I’m going to let some of you in on a little secret I learned on realgm. If you don’t like a thread, not only do you not have to comment but you don’t even have to open it and read it. You’re welcome.
User avatar
2klegend
Bench Warmer
Posts: 1,333
And1: 409
Joined: Mar 31, 2016
     

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #2 

Post#39 » by 2klegend » Sat Oct 17, 2020 2:02 am

Texas Chuck wrote:
2klegend wrote:Wow Lebron edges out Jordan @ GOAT?? That is crazy to think considering 10 years later, people will forget the legacy of Lebron than MJ.



In ten years literally nobody will have forgotten about Lebron. What are you on about exactly?

I mean in 10 years, people will remember Lebron as one of the All-Time Greats just like they remember the like of Wilt, Kareem. The dominant player in his era but will likely not transpire a new group of kids growing up wanting to be like Mike, the icon. It is not a coincident Jordan sells more shoes than Lebron despite already retired. That is an amazing legacy I'm talking about.
My Top 100+ GOAT (Peak, Prime, Longevity, Award):
viewtopic.php?f=64&t=1464952
mailmp
Sophomore
Posts: 173
And1: 124
Joined: Oct 16, 2020

Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #2 

Post#40 » by mailmp » Sat Oct 17, 2020 2:09 am

If being a cultural icon is an element of your analysis, okay, but then you also probably put Kobe much higher than most people here. :)

Return to Player Comparisons