The Lebron Thread | 2021 & Offseason

[D.Brasco]

Eye of the Tiger

[picko]

Over LeBron's last four postseasons (2016-18, 2020) his advanced metrics are a complete joke:

82 games
30.7 PER
62.4% TS
40.0% AST
14.1% TOV
18.4 WS
.271 WS/48
11.1 BPM
10.8 VORP

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jamesle01.html#2016-2020-sum:playoffs_advanced

Incredible numbers given you don't get to pad your stats against bad teams in the playoffs.

[colts18]

The Elgee video had me rethinking my position that MJ>LeBron is terms of peak. LeBron's playmaking and passing is on another level from MJ. His vision on the court is like Magic Johnson. MJ's scoring is significantly better than LeBron's, but LeBron's passing and defense makes it up for me.

[limbo]

The Elgee video had me rethinking my position that MJ>LeBron is terms of peak. LeBron's playmaking and passing is on another level from MJ. His vision on the court is like Magic Johnson. MJ's scoring is significantly better than LeBron's, but LeBron's passing and defense makes it up for me.

How is MJ scoring significantly better than Brons?

[colts18]

The Elgee video had me rethinking my position that MJ>LeBron is terms of peak. LeBron's playmaking and passing is on another level from MJ. His vision on the court is like Magic Johnson. MJ's scoring is significantly better than LeBron's, but LeBron's passing and defense makes it up for me.

How is MJ scoring significantly better than Brons?

MJ was more consistent than LeBron as a scorer. His career low finals scoring output was 22. He was going to score at least 25-30 every game and do it efficiently

[Heej]

The Elgee video had me rethinking my position that MJ>LeBron is terms of peak. LeBron's playmaking and passing is on another level from MJ. His vision on the court is like Magic Johnson. MJ's scoring is significantly better than LeBron's, but LeBron's passing and defense makes it up for me.

How is MJ scoring significantly better than Brons?

MJ was more consistent than LeBron as a scorer. His career low finals scoring output was 22. He was going to score at least 25-30 every game and do it efficiently

That has a lot to do with shot attempts as well.

[limbo]

MJ was more consistent than LeBron as a scorer. His career low finals scoring output was 22. He was going to score at least 25-30 every game and do it efficiently

Maybe if you isolate Jordan's best six years of his career ('88-'93) to LeBron's best six ('14-'20). And even then Jordan doesn't have the efficiency edge, only a 5.4 pts advantage in volume (per 100)... And this is with including 2015, which was an outlier down year for LeBron where he switched teams, had back problems and played without Love and Kyrie for the majority of the postseason. So, he has that going against him. If you extend the sample size over eleven seasons, LeBron gets a slightly bigger edge in efficiency, because Jordan wasn't that efficient in '87 and in his 2nd threepeat run.

Also, LeBron faced better defenses in the Playoffs on aggregate than Jordan. We've just talked about that in the GOAT list project.

So when you account for:

- bigger playmaking/defensive burden
- tougher defenses in PS
- outlier scenarios (people willing to emphasize LeBron's failure in a new environment in '11, while ignoring Jordan in '95. Yes, Jordan came back after 1.5 years of absence, but he played in a more familiar/proven setting than LeBron did in 2011).
- 2015 injury ridden year

I definitely think the gap is smaller than most people would imagine.

But there's definitely room to debate how the newly incorporated mass spacing made it easier for older Bron to be a more effective scorer, but then again, it's not like LeBron from 2009 to 2014 was that far off from what he has been in the last couple of seasons. And like i mentioned, he was going through top tier defenses during this time span, like the Magic, Celtics, Bulls, Pacers and Spurs...

[Ainosterhaspie]

Jordan had a more consistent jumper. I don't think that can really be disputed. That's not the best shot to rely on for efficient offense, and LeBron has the edge in more efficient shots at the rim and from three, which is why he edges Jordan in overall efficiency, but the ability to rely on his jumper more consistently than LeBron could rely on his made Jordan's scoring more consistent game to game, and more consistent against defenses that were effective at taking away other ways to score. Jordan didn't score more just because he was more eager to score, though that was certainly part of it, it was also because he had fewer zones on the floor where it was a bad idea for him to shoot. LeBron was more prone to having decent looks, but passing being the better play.

[Cavsfansince84]

Jordan had a more consistent jumper. I don't think that can really be disputed. That's not the best shot to rely on for efficient offense, and LeBron has the edge in more efficient shots at the rim and from three, which is why he edges Jordan in overall efficiency, but the ability to rely on his jumper more consistently than LeBron could rely on his made Jordan's scoring more consistent game to game, and more consistent against defenses that were effective at taking away other ways to score. Jordan didn't score more just because he was more eager to score, though that was certainly part of it, it was also because he had fewer zones on the floor where it was a bad idea for him to shoot. LeBron was more prone to having decent looks, but passing being the better play.

All of that plus imo MJ was sort of the ultimate bb savant in terms of combining his skills with his athleticism and being able to adapt to defenders on the fly. I think LeBron has sort of reached those levels at times as in during his 2018 playoff run but MJ was pretty much like that from 87 on and got better at it as the years went by though obviously he probably peaked as a scorer in the early 90's.

[limbo]

LeBron was much better inside scorer than MJ. In that case, it made sense why teams were more willing to sag off LeBron and build walls around the paint... Playing LeBron standard is scarier than playing MJ standard, because LeBron finishing ability inside the paint combined with his passing is a far more damaging offensive force then letting MJ shoot fallaway jumpers from deep...

But i don't disagree with the overall notion. Jordan could punish teams for sagging off much more effectively than LeBron could (although LeBron wasn't bad by any means in this scenario post 2009, it was just certain years/stretches that his jumper would broke randomly and he lost confidence in it, while opting for other ways of influencing the offense).

Also tiredness/fatigue and how it effects outside shooting might be something to look at in this instance as well. LeBron had the biggest offensive burden in NBA history for most of his career, sometimes even leading to stuff like cramps. I'm interested in knowing how Jordan's jumper would sustain if he had to be the main creator for his team while having to play a higher level of defense that was required in the 2010's and not really in the late 80's/early 90's... As a matter of fact, before Pippen came along and became a playmaking/defensive relief, Jordan was kind of struggling there for a minute with the Pistons, averaging like 28 ppg on 55%TS across 1988 and 1989...

[colts18]

MJ was more consistent than LeBron as a scorer. His career low finals scoring output was 22. He was going to score at least 25-30 every game and do it efficiently

Maybe if you isolate Jordan's best six years of his career ('88-'93) to LeBron's best six ('14-'20). And even then Jordan doesn't have the efficiency edge, only a 5.4 pts advantage in volume (per 100)... And this is with including 2015, which was an outlier down year for LeBron where he switched teams, had back problems and played without Love and Kyrie for the majority of the postseason. So, he has that going against him. If you extend the sample size over eleven seasons, LeBron gets a slightly bigger edge in efficiency, because Jordan wasn't that efficient in '87 and in his 2nd threepeat run.

Also, LeBron faced better defenses in the Playoffs on aggregate than Jordan. We've just talked about that in the GOAT list project.

So when you account for:

- bigger playmaking/defensive burden
- tougher defenses in PS
- outlier scenarios (people willing to emphasize LeBron's failure in a new environment in '11, while ignoring Jordan in '95. Yes, Jordan came back after 1.5 years of absence, but he played in a more familiar/proven setting than LeBron did in 2011).
- 2015 injury ridden year

I definitely think the gap is smaller than most people would imagine.

But there's definitely room to debate how the newly incorporated mass spacing made it easier for older Bron to be a more effective scorer, but then again, it's not like LeBron from 2009 to 2014 was that far off from what he has been in the last couple of seasons. And like i mentioned, he was going through top tier defenses during this time span, like the Magic, Celtics, Bulls, Pacers and Spurs...

MJ was more consistent as a scorer. He rarely had bad scoring games. LeBron would throw out an occasional stinker while MJ was also a good bet to score at least 25 points

15 or less points games:
MJ: 1/179 games (0.6%)
LeBron: 14/280 games (5.0%)

20 or less points games:
MJ: 6/179 (3.4%)
LeBron: 28/280 (10%)

25 or less points games:
MJ: 32/179 (17.9%)
LeBron: 95/280 (33.9%)

30+ points games games:
MJ: 109/179 (60.9%)
LeBron: 118/280 (42.1%)

[limbo]

MJ was more consistent as a scorer. He rarely had bad scoring games. LeBron would throw out an occasional stinker while MJ was also a good bet to score at least 25 points

15 or less points games:
MJ: 1/179 games (0.6%)
LeBron: 14/280 games (5.0%)

20 or less points games:
MJ: 6/179 (3.4%)
LeBron: 28/280 (10%)

25 or less points games:
MJ: 32/179 (17.9%)
LeBron: 95/280 (33.9%)

30+ points games games:
MJ: 109/179 (60.9%)
LeBron: 118/280 (42.1%)

Why are you focusing on unadjusted volume scoring stats?

Of course MJ was prone to have less 15 point games and more 30 points games because he took more FGA at the end of the day... A lot of the time by a significant amount...

Like, what was the least FGA Jordan ever took in a Playoff series? Because i know LeBron often had 15 FGA series when he was playing in Miami... LeBron's entire 2014 Playoff run (20 games) he was taking an average of 17 FGA...

The least FGA Jordan took in a series was 17.75 against the Pistons in 1991... and in general he finished that run averaging 22 FGA... So 5 more shots than LeBron, which is about in line with their career average Playoff FGA as well...

[Heej]

People conveniently ignore shot attempts for MJ but don't talk about the playmaking gap. LeBron's doing it in a far more complex era schematically.

[colts18]

btw, I'm not as high on LeBron's 2020 offense scoring as everyone else. The total lack of rim protection was glaring. These are the rim protectors LeBron faced in the playoffs:

Por: Nurkic/Whiteside, 28th ranked defense
Hou: Tucker (lol), 14th D
Den: Jokic, 16th D
Mia: Bam (3 games), 11th D

It's no coincidence that LeBron shot 79% at the rim and 51% from 3-10 feet. The same with Anthony Davis who faced awful defensive competition. 39% of LeBron's attemts were at the rim (3rd best of his career).

I witnessed so many easy drives to the baskets with either weak or no shot blockers waiting for LeBron at the rim.

If you put in 2008 version of LeBron in 2020, I can see him easily scoring 35 PPG in the playoffs. His athleticism at the time was 2 levels above the 2020 version. Can you imagine that version of LeBron facing Jeremi Grant 1 on 1 with Nikola "0.4 Blocks per game" Jokic at the rim and 3 point shooters spacing the floor or facing Robert Covington with P.J. "6' 5" Tucker at the basket? He would score at will. No one is stopping him. If Luka can score 31 PPG on 72% at the rim, can you imagine what 2008 LeBron is doing?

2020 LeBron would struggle to score against 2008 Pierce with 2008 KG/Pierce at the rim with 2008 spacing and rules. Same if he faced off against 2013 Kawhi with 2013 Duncan at the rim. It's so much easier to score in today's game that it would be unfair if we saw peak LeBron or MJ facing the Blazers and Rockets.


To be fair, 2020 LeBron does make up for it with his magnificent playmaking. 2020 LeBron has mastered the offensive game when it comes to making the right decisions.

[limbo]

2020 LeBron would struggle to score against 2008 Pierce with 2008 KG/Pierce at the rim with 2008 spacing and rules. Same if he faced off against 2013 Kawhi with 2013 Duncan at the rim. It's so much easier to score in today's game that it would be unfair if we saw peak LeBron or MJ facing the Blazers and Rockets.

So would Jordan...A lof of what you said here is offset by the fact that defenses nowadays have more knowledge, talent, freedom and general flexibility to throw at you defensively. There are things that teams (were allowed to) execute schematically on defense against LeBron that wasn't true with MJ.

MJ was put on an island against Craig Ehlo, Byron Scott, Dan Majerle, John Starks... What do you think was going to happen?

[Blackmill]

btw, I'm not as high on LeBron's 2020 offense scoring as everyone else. The total lack of rim protection was glaring. These are the rim protectors LeBron faced in the playoffs:

Por: Nurkic/Whiteside, 28th ranked defense
Hou: Tucker (lol), 14th D
Den: Jokic, 16th D
Mia: Bam (3 games), 11th D

It's no coincidence that LeBron shot 79% at the rim and 51% from 3-10 feet. The same with Anthony Davis who faced awful defensive competition. 39% of LeBron's attemts were at the rim (3rd best of his career).

I witnessed so many easy drives to the baskets with either weak or no shot blockers waiting for LeBron at the rim.

If you put in 2008 version of LeBron in 2020, I can see him easily scoring 35 PPG in the playoffs. His athleticism at the time was 2 levels above the 2020 version. Can you imagine that version of LeBron facing Jeremi Grant 1 on 1 with Nikola "0.4 Blocks per game" Jokic at the rim and 3 point shooters spacing the floor? He would score at will. No one is stopping him. If Luka can score 31 PPG on 72% at the rim, can you imagine what 2008 LeBron is doing?

To be fair, 2020 LeBron does make up for it with his magnificent playmaking. 2020 LeBron has mastered the offensive game when it comes to making the right decisions.

I think it's fair to bring up the lack of shot blocking but that should come with recognizing LA's relative lack of outside shooting for current NBA. Despite the absence of rim protection, LeBron's shots in the paint weren't necessarily easy. Anyways, I don't see 2008 LeBron scoring 35 PPG in these playoffs unless it's simply because he's playing more minutes and more ball dominating. But he could do that because he was a lot younger. Minus that possibility, I would describe it like this. I think there's more possessions where LeBron's ability to play slower was key to breaking the defense than possessions where LeBron didn't score but could have if he were able to play quicker and more above the ground. I do agree that 2008 LeBron would shoot better at the rim today than he did back then.

[JulesWinnfield]

Read on Twitter

Damn he even shoots FTs better than MJ in the 4th quarter of finals games

Of course MJ shot more of them though even in way fewer games

[homecourtloss]

MJ was more consistent than LeBron as a scorer. His career low finals scoring output was 22. He was going to score at least 25-30 every game and do it efficiently

Maybe if you isolate Jordan's best six years of his career ('88-'93) to LeBron's best six ('14-'20). And even then Jordan doesn't have the efficiency edge, only a 5.4 pts advantage in volume (per 100)... And this is with including 2015, which was an outlier down year for LeBron where he switched teams, had back problems and played without Love and Kyrie for the majority of the postseason. So, he has that going against him. If you extend the sample size over eleven seasons, LeBron gets a slightly bigger edge in efficiency, because Jordan wasn't that efficient in '87 and in his 2nd threepeat run.

Also, LeBron faced better defenses in the Playoffs on aggregate than Jordan. We've just talked about that in the GOAT list project.

So when you account for:

- bigger playmaking/defensive burden
- tougher defenses in PS
- outlier scenarios (people willing to emphasize LeBron's failure in a new environment in '11, while ignoring Jordan in '95. Yes, Jordan came back after 1.5 years of absence, but he played in a more familiar/proven setting than LeBron did in 2011).
- 2015 injury ridden year

I definitely think the gap is smaller than most people would imagine.

But there's definitely room to debate how the newly incorporated mass spacing made it easier for older Bron to be a more effective scorer, but then again, it's not like LeBron from 2009 to 2014 was that far off from what he has been in the last couple of seasons. And like i mentioned, he was going through top tier defenses during this time span, like the Magic, Celtics, Bulls, Pacers and Spurs...

MJ was more consistent as a scorer. He rarely had bad scoring games. LeBron would throw out an occasional stinker while MJ was also a good bet to score at least 25 points

15 or less points games:
MJ: 1/179 games (0.6%)
LeBron: 14/280 games (5.0%)

20 or less points games:
MJ: 6/179 (3.4%)
LeBron: 28/280 (10%)

25 or less points games:
MJ: 32/179 (17.9%)
LeBron: 95/280 (33.9%)

30+ points games games:
MJ: 109/179 (60.9%)
LeBron: 118/280 (42.1%)

What about relative to shots per game/fTs per game?

[colts18]

Maybe if you isolate Jordan's best six years of his career ('88-'93) to LeBron's best six ('14-'20). And even then Jordan doesn't have the efficiency edge, only a 5.4 pts advantage in volume (per 100)... And this is with including 2015, which was an outlier down year for LeBron where he switched teams, had back problems and played without Love and Kyrie for the majority of the postseason. So, he has that going against him. If you extend the sample size over eleven seasons, LeBron gets a slightly bigger edge in efficiency, because Jordan wasn't that efficient in '87 and in his 2nd threepeat run.

Also, LeBron faced better defenses in the Playoffs on aggregate than Jordan. We've just talked about that in the GOAT list project.

So when you account for:

- bigger playmaking/defensive burden
- tougher defenses in PS
- outlier scenarios (people willing to emphasize LeBron's failure in a new environment in '11, while ignoring Jordan in '95. Yes, Jordan came back after 1.5 years of absence, but he played in a more familiar/proven setting than LeBron did in 2011).
- 2015 injury ridden year

I definitely think the gap is smaller than most people would imagine.

But there's definitely room to debate how the newly incorporated mass spacing made it easier for older Bron to be a more effective scorer, but then again, it's not like LeBron from 2009 to 2014 was that far off from what he has been in the last couple of seasons. And like i mentioned, he was going through top tier defenses during this time span, like the Magic, Celtics, Bulls, Pacers and Spurs...

MJ was more consistent as a scorer. He rarely had bad scoring games. LeBron would throw out an occasional stinker while MJ was also a good bet to score at least 25 points

15 or less points games:
MJ: 1/179 games (0.6%)
LeBron: 14/280 games (5.0%)

20 or less points games:
MJ: 6/179 (3.4%)
LeBron: 28/280 (10%)

25 or less points games:
MJ: 32/179 (17.9%)
LeBron: 95/280 (33.9%)

30+ points games games:
MJ: 109/179 (60.9%)
LeBron: 118/280 (42.1%)

What about relative to shots per game/fTs per game?

MJ was better at creating his own shot. No one took away his shot. No one. He only shot less than 15 FGA in a playoff game 3 times (LeBron did it 32 times). No one had a defense that flustered MJ like that. I don't want to denigrate LeBron's scoring because he is a top 3 scorer all-time with Kareem, but he is not MJ as a scorer. No shame in that.

[trickshot]

Didn't the Bucks DNP Mirotic in the 2019 Playoffs because he was getting skinned on defense?

I honestly don’t recall, but in either case I don’t see how that’s relevant. Gallo and Mirotić are different players. I’m just saying Mirotić has some poor mans similairites to him and worked exceedingly well on offense with AD in New Orleans, lit the blazers up in the playoffs too averaging 18 on 71% TS on their way to winning the only round Davis won there

It's relevant because i fear Gallo could become too much of a defensive liability against certain matchups/teams, exactly like Mirotic did...

Offensively Gallo is good. But if your defense is getting exploited hard because your PF/SF is too slow to rotate and contain quick guys on switches then he's giving back on one side a lot of what he's getting you on the other... In that case his overall value is not that much better than Kuzma/Morris who will give you 15-18 points on offense but won't leave the defense as vulnerable on every possession.

Lakers need to remember Curry and GS are going to be in the equation next year. GS and Curry will always initiate their point of attack from the weakest defender. You don't want a huge portion of your salary cap tied up in players who have to ride the bench against the toughest postseason competition. Targets like Melo, Gallo that keep being floated may backfire.

Lakers need to find wing defenders because putting Kuzma on the best wings turned out to be a joke in the bubble playoffs. Thank heavens they didn't meet the Clippers