Double Clutch wrote:First of all, great work OP.
In your breakdown, you stated Hakeem took 62 jumpers in this series meaning that 53.4% of his FGA were jumpers which is safe to say wasn't the norm for him even though the jumpshot was a major part of his arsenal. I had a quote from Rudy T before the series started but I can't seem to find it anymore but as you can see below, Mario Elie talks about how they wanted Hakeem to step out more so it took Shaq away from the paint to negate Shaq's shot blocking and presence in the middle which has generally been a big factor as Shaq has always been a great paint defender.
"maybe try to get Hakeem outside a little bit more to take Shaq away from the basket so if guys cut, there will be no shot-blocking and that leaves the boards open for a couple of offensive rebounds," Houston's Mario Elie said.
http://www.deseretnews.com/article/4631 ... STARS.html
This is something that is evident on several possessions over the course of the series but especially in the second half of game 2.
A journalist talks about it below and I'll give a few specific examples as well.
It won't matter which of the Rocket point guards step up if the Magic keeps making the tactical mistake of single-covering Olajuwon, who is having one of the game's all-time postseason runs with a 32.9-point average in 20 playoff games.
The Houston center's early outburst virtually eliminated the shot blocking of Shaquille O'Neal, who had 33 points but no snuffs.As the game progressed, Olajuwon drifted farther out on the wings and his Magic counterpart had to stick with him. The lack of interior defense made the Magic easy prey for Rocket penetrators Cassell and Clyde Drexler.
In fact, it was Drexler's one-on-one offense that effectively countered Orlando's desperate pressure defense down the stretch. With O'Neal looking on helplessly, Drexler delivered 10 of his 23 points with a variety of slashing moves to the hoop.
"It's been tried before," Smith said of the Magic's decision not to double Olajuwon. "I think that's how we got out to the big lead. He was being played one-on-one and he didn't miss a shot, basically. That put a lot of pressure on them at the offensive end.
http://community.seattletimes.nwsource. ... ug=2125564
For example, in the game 2 link I posted above, fast forward to the 1:04:00 mark and you'll see Hakeem positioned behind the 3 pt line and due to illegal defense rules, Shaq is forced to come out and guard him above the foul line unless he really commits a hard double because if he would've floated around or positioned himself below the foul line, he would've been illegal. In that play, Drexler posts up Anderson and is able to spin and drive past him for the score without any shot blocking threat. This is an intangible quality which the stats won't show but Hakeem is helping the team offense here in an indirect sense. Another example is the possession at the 1:33:34 mark with Cassell isolating on the left side of the court with Hakeem spacing himself on the right wing and Cassell is able to penetrate inside and draw the foul without Shaq really being able to challenge the shot. You see the same thing at the 1:36:27 mark with Houston spacing/overloading themselves on one side of the court so Drexler can just get a clearout isolation on the other side and he's able to go inside with the Magic being unable to provide help in time due to Houston's dangerous perimeter shooting as well as the illegal defense rules. This clearly has a certain amount of value to me as he's drawing Shaq away from the basket and opening up the middle for his teammates. Basically, floor spacing is a very valuable asset to have since it can make the game easier for your teammates. I'd also some of it has to do with the illegal defense rules hindering Orlando's ability to play effective help defense in this situation.
Another example of how Hakeem's spacing helped the rest of the team from game 4.
8:55 mark in the video below. Rockets run a PnR between Drexler and Horry and they get the switch with Grant on Drexler. You'll see Hakeem space himself along the weakside/right wing where Shaq is forced to come out and guard him. Drexler isolates vs Grant from the 3 pt line, is able to beat him off the dribble with ease and nobody is there to challenge Drexler in the lane. Hakeem is basically making it easier for his teammates by pulling Shaq out of the paint.
0:12 mark in the video below. They show a replay of the play above and listen to what Matt Guokas says, a problem the Magic have been having with Sam Cassell and Drexler getting beat off the dribble and nobody shuts down the lane.
Something else you have to consider when comparing the volume of their shot attempts is Hakeem's diverse repertoire does allow him to be more effective in terms of creating his own shot and often negate, evade or split the double team (couple of examples in a Hakeem game 1 highlight video below) and he was also more aggressive in terms of looking for his shot as he often made his move quickly instead of waiting for the double team.
1:05 - Example of Hakeem going to the baseline turnaround which can be used to evade the double team. Shaq's one hand baseline turnaround wasn't quite developed yet in regards to consistency, range or accuracy. He didn't feel comfortable shooting it. Hakeem could and would go to the baseline turnaround throughout the series, a shot that isn't particularly high percentage but he can use it to turn away from the double.
3:30 - Grant goes to double down on Hakeem, he sees the double coming, turns baseline away from the double and is able to get the bucket and the foul.
We also have to keep in mind Hakeem's ability to hit the perimeter jumpshot also negates double teams allowing him to shoot more often and take on either a bigger role or a more varied role depending on what the team wants to do strategically. I see some people saying "well, Hakeem took 29 shots compared to Shaq's 18" so you have to analyze their skillsets and find a reasoning as to why that occurred. Shaq, on the other hand, could have his shot attempts limited a bit by quick double teams as he did not quite have the skill-set to break down double teams or the jumper to step out and beat them which could often force him into a passive rhythm. By a passive rhythm, I mean there were instances you'd notice he wouldn't look for his shot at all and he'd pass the ball before the double team would even get there since he was so programmed to do so. For the most part, he did do a great job passing out of the double teams but at times, when his team would need a bucket, that could be a factor though I'm not really criticizing him for finding the open man as he's making the appropriate decision in theory. And another thing you could say in defense of Shaq is it's easier to force a low-post player to give the ball up if you double team him on the catch as you haven't initiated your move or put the ball on the floor yet which is what the Rockets did while the Magic switched it up more often in terms of the angles they came at, the timing as they'd sometimes double him on the catch or during his move although you can also say, that can at times confuse an offensive player too since you don't know how the defense is going to play you at this particular possession and you aren't able to get a consistent rhythm and feel in terms of how to react to the defense. I also don't think Shaq's game had fully developed yet in terms of offensive skill although he had really improved compared to his rookie and second year since he could hit the one hand turnaround occasionally, had better range and touch on his jump hook, was more effective with the drop-step to the baseline and read the double teams a LOT better. He'd peak during the 3 peat where his footwork would continue to improve, his low-post game was more diverse while obviously having the brute strength and physical dominance (also added weight).
I'd also say Hakeem's ability to face up on the perimeter sort of skews the percentage of double teams they saw. I'd vouch those numbers would be closer if you strictly looked at how much they were double teamed with their back to the basket.
Another thing I'd like to touch on is the issue regarding Shaq's "stat-padding" in game 2 which was discussed earlier. I don't think it's fair to say Shaq was stat-padding because it's a ridiculous assertion to expect a team to give up at halftime in a game of this magnitude. If anything, he deserves credit for playing hard and doing his best to bring Orlando back into the game but it's also not exactly unusual to see the team with a big lead coast while the losing team plays with a real sense of urgency. On top of that, I didn't feel Houston was ever in real danger of losing the game because of the way they played on offense late in the 4th. You'll notice Orlando cut the lead down to 9 around midway in the 4th quarter but Houston then really started to run the clock down on offense and Orlando was also resorting to pressure defense which took time off the clock anyway since they were looking to force turnovers and make it harder for Houston to get the ball up the floor. This strategy clearly worked for Houston with Drexler just isolating and letting the clock run down as the rest of the team spaced the floor allowing him to penetrate and it was the reason Houston had the game in the bag. The lead they had established earlier allowed them to play this way from a strategic standpoint. At the 1:42:20 mark, Guokas talks about how Drexler milking the clock was successful for them.
Hakeem was great in the first half this game (22 pts on 9/17 FG), Orlando chose to play him straight up with Shaq in the first quarter and once he got accustomed to it a bit and knew the double wasn't coming at all, he was able to get to the middle and he drew two fouls on Shaq in a span of 90 seconds which forced them to switch Grant on him and mix up single coverage with some double teaming for the rest of the first half. You can hold Shaq accountable for Hakeem's big first half (even though not all of Hakeem's pts were scored vs him) when you consider Orlando's strategy of guarding him straight up didn't work early on, allowed Houston to establish a big lead and Shaq getting into foul trouble played a part in that. The Magic also stated that they should've double teamed Hakeem more often in this game which you'll see in one of the quotes below. Shaq was mostly getting double teamed right off the catch in this game, did a good job finding the open man but he also had a big "quiet stretch" in the first half as Houston could take away his individual shot creation with quick double teaming and that impacted his ability to get in rhythm. He only had 10 pts on 3/10 shooting at halftime with Houston up 22 but a big time second half with 23 pts on 9/12 shooting though the commentator(s) do mention he wasn't a dominating factor. If you're comparing their box score production for this game, you have to consider Houston's strategy in terms of the way they used Hakeem in the second half, especially the 4th quarter and Hakeem also had to take a couple of late in the clock/bailout shots too (he missed both) with the way those possessions had played out (1:16:50 and 1:47:28). That's the difference between a 14/28 and a 14/30 shooting night.
Next, I want to mention that Orlando (including Shaq) played horrible transition defense in this series. It was a major reason why they lost this series and since Shaq was one of the guys not hustling back on defense, this is something Shaq can be criticized for.
The quote below is Orlando's reasoning for why they lost game 2:
The Magic viewed films of its Game 2 debacle yesterday, and while the failure to double-team Olajuwon in certain situations was scrutinized, everyone was in agreement as to where the problem lies. Transition defense, they believe, is the key.
"As we viewed the tapes, we kept seeing the same thing: no one getting back," Rollins said. "I don't know. You look at Houston. Sometimes, I don't think any of us are giving them enough credit. They've beaten all the teams with the best records in the playoffs."
http://community.seattletimes.nwsource. ... ug=2125909
Brian Hill asked about Shaq's transition defense:
When the coach of the Houston Rockets speaks about half-court offense and floor spacing and "running with a purpose," people write it down and nod their heads. When everyone's opinion is suddenly that you could very well be a genius, the hard thing to do is avoid agreeing with it.
"Anybody can have a philosophy and a game plan," Tomjanovich said. "Getting players to believe it, that's the important part."
Like getting your star to run back on defense? Hill was asked how he suggests that maybe Shaquille O'Neal should do more of that. "Very carefully and with great thought," said Hill.
http://articles.sun-sentinel.com/1995-0 ... omjanovich
Below is a journalist being critical of Shaq's defense. He counted 8 pts at the minimum where Houston scored with Shaq not getting back and this is just for game 3.
The obvious difference between Hakeem Olajuwon and Shaquille O’Neal is that Olajuwon is art and O’Neal is craft.
Another one is that Olajuwon runs back on defense.
While the first is why Houston is aesthetically superior to Orlando, the second is why the Rockets are leading the Magic by three games to none in the NBA Finals.
“Transition,” said Orlando coach Brian Hill. “Again they beat us in transition.”
For the casually curious watching at home, and there should be less and less now that this thing has all the suspense of an execution, let me explain what transition is. That is when you see everybody running to one side of the television screen. Then they kind of all slow down and throw the ball around. Eventually coming into the picture will be No. 32 of Orlando. Maybe not.
This is because the Magic will inconsiderately run down the floor before O’Neal is ready to join them.
Sometimes O’Neal does not even play with his own teammates, allowing them to go four on five.
I counted at least eight points scored by Houston because O’Neal was still on the other side of halfcourt when he should have been back on defense.
http://www.spokesman.com/stories/1995/j ... ard-title/
I believe this is purely a case of lackadaisical effort on Shaq's part because I vividly remember a couple of plays where he actually beat Hakeem down the floor for a transition bucket but on defense, he didn't nearly exert as much energy although you can certainly argue had he exerted more energy, that could've wore him down on offense. This issue isn't just relegated to Hakeem beating Shaq in transition either but rather the entire team could also take advantage of this. Obviously, not every transition bucket for Houston can be attributed to Shaq not getting back since Shaq is standing in the paint and there were some turnovers/bad shots Houston forced from the perimeter and were able to quickly get in the open court so that's something the perimeter players should be held accountable for. However, there were definitely a number of plays where Houston did take advantage of the fact that Shaq did not get back in the appropriate time.
Just a couple of examples:
5:38 mark in the video below. Chucky Brown was Shaq's man at this point in this game and you'll notice, Brown and Shaq are essentially side by side when Houston gets possession of the ball. However, you'll notice Brown outruns Shaq and is able to get putback after the Houston miss. The rest of the Magic aren't playing good transition defense either but Shaq certainly isn't holding up his end of the bargain.
2:40 mark in the video below. Drexler takes advantage of the fact that Shaq isn't getting and is able to get to lane without any rim protection. This link has Spanish commentary but on the English broadcast, Matt Guokas says, Shaquille not getting back on defense, Drexler recognized it, took it right to the hole, nobody to challenge his shot.
Another point I have to mention, albeit it is minor, is that Shaq's unwillingness to box out hurt Orlando on a few possessions since his man was able sneak in and get a second chance opportunity. I could point to specific examples if you want me to. I can recall about 3-4 instances. Shaq often did not box out and relied more on his physical attributes which was fine since his presence took up so much space in the middle and he was a good rebounder but it could allow for OREB opportunities for his man. This is something both Walton and Guokas mentioned at some point in the series. It didn't hurt them a lot because Shaq was guarding Hakeem for the most part and Hakeem often chose to get back on defense rather than attack the offensive glass since he was often positioned on the perimeter. Hakeem actually did a pretty great job at boxing Shaq out in games 2-4 of the series after having some trouble due to often face-guarding him in game 1. He changed his strategy after game 1 and you'll notice Shaq didn't really have his usual big series on the offensive glass. Shaq only had a 6.8 OREB% in the 1995 finals, the lowest of any playoff series in his Magic or Laker years. This is keeping in mind that 1995 was one of Shaq's best years on the offensive glass and up to the finals, he was averaging a whopping 16.2 OREB%. Also, Shaq got quite a few OREBs when Hakeem went to help/block a shot; against Hakeem alone, Shaq either had 3 or 4 OREBs. This is something that the box score won't necessarily show since Hakeem boxing out Shaq often meant he won't be the one able to get the DREB. Although, in a way, you can see it in Shaq's relatively low OREB numbers. Another thing to note is that Hakeem boxing out Shaq meant the Houston perimeter players could get the DREB and get out in transition and along with Orlando's awful transition defense, this allowed them to be successful in the open court.
4:56 mark in the video below. Bill Walton: And again, Hakeem forced to block out, rather than grab that rebound himself.
Also, did you track how many shots Shaq and Hakeem created in general as opposed to assists? These would include hockey assists, open looks they create that their teammates missed or got fouled on etc. I'd imagine they both had quite a few. In general, I did think they both did a great job reading the defense, it was rare to see them force the issue and they often made quick, split second decisions in finding gaps and openings in the defense and were able to hit shooters or cutters. Shaq's passing was probably the biggest improvement in his game from second to third year. I remember both Walton and Guokas also commending his passing in this series.
It would've also been interesting to record the shots they altered, the deflections they had, the turnovers they forced and how well they played help/team defense in general though I understand this in particular is hard to account for. Both in this series and in general, Hakeem was superior in these aspects of the game. I've already talked about Shaq's subpar transition defense but Hakeem did a pretty good job at getting back on defense and on top of that, Hakeem's help defense was also superior albeit he wasn't able to help out as much as he normally did largely due to the concern of Shaq benefiting from it in the sense of being able to finish plays and get OREB/putback opportunities. Hakeem did well altering shots in the paint with his quick reflexes, length, the quickness of his jump and how well he'd react and anticipate to plays developing. There were instances where he'd deflect passes breaking up a play, save a basket here and there and also his ability to shade/double on defense allowing him to dictate the offensive player's decision making on the court. Here's an example of this at the 1:18 mark in the video below. You'll notice Orlando running a play for Penny in the post vs Cassell which is a mismatch in single coverage so Hakeem comes over to help and Penny immediately backs his dribble out towards the perimeter.
Shaq did change a few shots in the lane as well but he was also late on his rotations on a few occasions and I can remember a couple of instances where Guokas talked about it and keep in mind with Hakeem often pulling Shaq out of the middle, it meant he was unable to protect the rim. It may seem like cherry-picking to isolate one possession but we have to keep in mind basketball is a possession game so every possession matters. fatal9 posted a compilation of 10 turnovers Hakeem was able to force against Shaq but that's just against Shaq; he had a few more deflections and steals in the series and there were a couple of instances where he was able to force a bad pass resulting in a TO due to his presence since he was quick to provide help and managed to cut off a passing lane or forced a tougher passing angle. The second play in the Shaq turnovers compilation fatal9 made is an example of Hakeem stripping Shaq but I'm not sure if he got credit for the steal since he wasn't the one who secured the possession (a lot of times I've seen the person who forced the deflection get credit but at times I haven't) and this is a big play because it resulted in a defense to offense opportunity as Houston was able to get an easy transition bucket due to the steal. Turnovers to transition buckets are crucial due to this since they're possible 4 pt turnarounds. Shaq had 10 more turnovers than Hakeem in this series so it's a safe bet that a greater number of his turnovers led to fastbreak opportunities and thus hurt his team more so than Hakeem's. Another example is the play at 1:30 from fatal9's video as Hakeem strips Shaq, Drexler secures the ball and is able to get in the open court, draw the foul and nails both free throws. That's another possible 4 pt turnaround.
Also, game 2 features an example of Hakeem not getting credit for the appropriate number of steals. The box score credits Hakeem with 1 steal but he had two deflections and both resulted in turnovers forced. I've posted the link above so you can fast forward to the 40:40 mark and you'll see Hakeem strip Anderson on the drive and Cassell is able to secure the ball. Fast forward to the 1:12:40 mark and you'll see a turnover forced by Hakeem as him and Drexler trapped Dennis Scott who was the ball handler on the PnR and Hakeem was able to deflect the pass by getting his arms up and Horry was able to secure the ball.
Also, how many of their defensive plays in general were able to successfully ignite the break? Besides the two examples in the "shaq tos" video where Hakeem's 2 strips on Shaq lead to fastbreak buckets, go to 2:50 in the Hakeem game 1 highlight video I posted above in which I cited some of the plays showcasing Hakeem's ability to evade the double and you'll see Hakeem make a block on Shaw which ignites the fastbreak and Houston is able to get a score. Another at 3:45 in a Hakeem game 4 highlight video which you can see below; Penny tries to hit Shaq with a drop-off, Hakeem steals the ball, feeds Cassell on the outlet and Drexler is able to get a transition bucket + the foul. Igniting the break isn't credited for in the box score but often results in easy offense so this is something that Hakeem should get credit for. I definitely feel he had more plays that ignited the break than Shaq in this series with his defensive prowess with his steals, blocks, outlet passes and even though he's not directly igniting the break by boxing Shaq out, he is allowing his teammates to get the DREB and get out in transition taking advantage of Orlando's poor transition defense.
Another thing that would've been nice to record is how many shots players missed while double teamed and whether the man who was being double teamed off of was able to benefit from it or not. For example, if you go to the 1:05:35 in game 2, Shaq shot the jump hook over Hakeem with Horry leaving Grant to contest Shaq's shot. Grant was able to slip in towards the basket for an offensive rebound. I do not consider this a negative on Shaq's behalf since he was double teamed, was able to get the shot up and Horace Grant benefited from it since his man left to attend to Shaq. How many plays did Hakeem have like this especially as Mario Elie had alluded to in that they wanted Hakeem to play outside due to strategic reasons and if he misses, it could open up opportunities for everyone else to crash the offensive glass with Shaq away from the paint? An offensive rebound by Hakeem's teammates on a missed jumper isn't something I'd necessarily credit to Hakeem but we have to keep in mind this is a way Houston wanted him to play strategically.
In general, I came away thinking Shaq played well in this series (certainly better than Ewing and Robinson in their respective series vs Houston) but I also didn't feel Shaq was nearly as impactful as Hakeem in the 5v5 team setting which is really what basketball is all about. If you want to look at their match up strictly from a 1v1 perspective, sure you could say Shaq was able to do a better job scoring against Hakeem than Hakeem did against Shaq but overall in the 5v5 game, Hakeem definitely seemed more impactful to me. Was it a big difference? No, but Hakeem did enough to prove himself as the superior player but I'll also say the center match up didn't really decide the series. Scott and Anderson didn't play up to expectations, lack of experience was big, Horry was big with his all around play and was a mismatch for Grant and their transition defense (not just Shaq but the entire team) was also poor where Houston was able to thrive largely due to Drexler who was terrific in the open court. Orlando actually pointed to three reasons why they were down 0-3 which you can see below (transition defense, outside shooting and guarding Hakeem).
Orlando denies that lack of experience is the main factor in a finals that looks to be much shorter than the Magic figured. Players point to poor outside shooting, problems in transition and the defensive dilemma posed by Hakeem Olajuwon.
But Orlando's veteran, Horace Grant, sees the look of a champion in Houston's eyes and something else in his team.
"For the younger guys, being down 0-3, they have a tendency to be a little anxious, to play a little tight," he said. "It just comes from being in this situation before."
http://community.seattletimes.nwsource. ... ug=2126301
