RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #13 (Jerry West)

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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #13 

Post#21 » by mailmp » Sun Nov 8, 2020 8:35 am

penbeast0 wrote:
mailmp wrote:1. Oscar Robertson
I am not judging these players for what they would do in the modern league. West’s spacing would indeed be an innate advantage now ...


I could care less about how a player from another era would play now or visa versa. West's spacing, the ability to shoot from 15+ feet away at such a consistently high percentage and volume, gave his teams a spacing advantage THEN, opening up inside space for Baylor, LaRusso, etc. as well as more space for him to slash to the basket.


... You say that like Oscar was not also an elite midrange shooter, or like he was not regularly drawing better offensive results put of his team. Yeah, West had a bit of a spacing advantage, but it does not make up for Oscar’s passing advantage, and the spacing effect then was nowhere near what it would be now.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #13 

Post#22 » by penbeast0 » Sun Nov 8, 2020 12:30 pm

I'd like to see more Durant argument, pro and con. That and Chris Paul if anyone has him top 20. I don't see anyone else active (Harden for example) getting votes between 10 and 20, if so let's hear about them too.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #13 

Post#23 » by Hornet Mania » Sun Nov 8, 2020 1:12 pm

penbeast0 wrote:I'd like to see more Durant argument, pro and con. That and Chris Paul if anyone has him top 20. I don't see anyone else active (Harden for example) getting votes between 10 and 20, if so let's hear about them too.


I'm thinking that Curry might get some votes around 20, I've heard his name thrown out in these threads a couple times.

Personally I doubt I'll vote for any modern player between 13-20 simply because there are so many excellent candidates I'm already wavering on. I feel like Mikan needs to be top 15 simply for trail blazing and in-era dominance, but Dr. J was an incredibly player so surely he's top 15, but then Mailman had GOATish longevity, but then Dirk was pretty close to him, but then D-Rob...etc. Durant/Harden/Curry (and to a lesser extent CP3) are hurt by incomplete careers compared to these other legends imo.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #13 

Post#24 » by Joao Saraiva » Sun Nov 8, 2020 1:23 pm

Odinn21 wrote:
Joao Saraiva wrote:- Very good in the RS, #2 in the MVP voting 4 times in a league he had no business discussing the award with his style of play;

Shouldn't you be rewarding Robertson more than West if this is important for you? Since he actually won one? And he had further 1 second place and 3 third place finishes.

Odinn21 wrote:Since MVP's inception, these are the first 3 non-big players won the award;
Bob Cousy in 1957 (Russell's rookie season which he missed one third of season with 24 games and Chamberlain wasn't around.)
Oscar Robertson in 1964 (Right in the middle of Russell's and Chamberlain's prime, West and Baylor were also around and in their respective primes.)
Julius Erving in 1981.


Joao Saraiva wrote:- Major playoff contributor. Elevated his game even more and has several years that with his consistency he could be considered player of the year;

I'd like to see your PotY list because I can't think of a single one. Even in 1970, West's best season to argue for, Reed was better than West up until his injury.

Joao Saraiva wrote:- Great shooter, ahead of his time;

Being ahead of his time shouldn't matter this much.

Joao Saraiva wrote:- very well deserved FMVP in a loss.

This should be just an anecdote. We don't even know if they gave the award to West to reward his heroics. There were bunch of stories about the voters thinking the Lakers as the victorious. And there were bunch of other performances that could've gotten the award in losing situations. As a criteria, don't see the point of rewarding such an outlier.

Surely, West is a great pick here. Definitely among the contention and has a very strong case. Don't think I'd agree with these points though.


Oscar won one. All right.

He was 2nd once.
3rd 3 times.

West was 2nd four times.
3rd once.

There is no big gap there even if we add the MVP award for Robertson.

About the voters not even knowing that Boston won... I don't buy that. West was clearly the best player of the series.

About Reed... we're living again in the world of could and would but did not do. That's why I don't rank Oscar over Jerry West - oh he could have done very well in the playoffs... or KG... he could have done this and that... yeah, but they didn't.

So you don't see a case for 66 West being the best player in the league?

Being ahead of his time doesn't matter... to you. I think it shows how great of a scorer West was, since he had a type of game that was not designed for that era and he still was among the elite and playing superb in the playoffs.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #13 

Post#25 » by Doctor MJ » Sun Nov 8, 2020 4:23 pm

mailmp wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:
mailmp wrote:1. Oscar Robertson
I am not judging these players for what they would do in the modern league. West’s spacing would indeed be an innate advantage now ...


I could care less about how a player from another era would play now or visa versa. West's spacing, the ability to shoot from 15+ feet away at such a consistently high percentage and volume, gave his teams a spacing advantage THEN, opening up inside space for Baylor, LaRusso, etc. as well as more space for him to slash to the basket.


... You say that like Oscar was not also an elite midrange shooter, or like he was not regularly drawing better offensive results put of his team. Yeah, West had a bit of a spacing advantage, but it does not make up for Oscar’s passing advantage, and the spacing effect then was nowhere near what it would be now.


On passing, I want to chime in here:

First, not saying anything negative about Oscar's passing, he was first class there.

But I think we've seen indicators that West was an exceptionally capable passer as well. That '67-68 vBK offense was Princetonian. It involved motion and read & react thinking, and when West played, it was the greatest offense in the history of the game to that point.

Once again the Magic/Bird analogies work very well to me. Oscar passed more like Magic, West more like Bird. Does that give Oscar an advantage?

I'm fine with people saying slightly so, but the gap isn't likely to be massive, and when you add that West was likely a better scorer and a considerably stronger defender, to me West has the overall edge whenever I compare Oscar & West's games.

I can still see an argument for Oscar over West based on his early advantage in impact, and I recognize that he also has a small longevity edge, but when West put it all together, I think he was better, and he was still a top tier MVP candidate like this after Oscar's sun was clearly in the process of setting.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #13 

Post#26 » by Odinn21 » Sun Nov 8, 2020 4:28 pm

Joao Saraiva wrote:There is no big gap there even if we add the MVP award for Robertson.

Considering Robertson won that award over near-peak Russell and Chamberlain and West did not get after the two left their primes should speak volumes if MVP is an important criteria for you.
Also you're talking like 2nd place matters a lot. In West's situation, it only mattered once when he was an actual candidate in 1970 (in the season Russell was no longer around any more and Chamberlain nearly missed entire of it).

Robertson's MVP is not something scoff at by saying "all right" when West only came close to winning one only once against far worse competition.

Joao Saraiva wrote:About the voters not even knowing that Boston won... I don't buy that. West was clearly the best player of the series.

You want to give West for being the best player in that series? Go ahead. You want to give credit for winning that FMVP award? That doesn't make sense.

Joao Saraiva wrote:About Reed... we're living again in the world of could and would but did not do. That's why I don't rank Oscar over Jerry West - oh he could have done very well in the playoffs... or KG... he could have done this and that... yeah, but they didn't.

Interesting thing to say because this is directly "ahead of his time" argument and I did not say anything about anything about Reed's what ifs.
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar did not miss out on being the best player of 1979-80 season by missing one game at the end of the season. Very similarly, Reed got a well-deserved MVP, led the Knicks to a historic 60W, in the playoffs he played against arguably the toughest positional competition ever (Unseld, Abdul-Jabbar and Chamberlain). In the playoffs, up until his injury, he was 26/15/3 against these names. More importantly 32/15/4 against Chamberlain over 4 games.

And you are dismissing what Reed had already accomplished as a what if? That's not accurate.
So many dismissive arguments when you clearly do not evaluate the regarding situations properly.

Joao Saraiva wrote:So you don't see a case for 66 West being the best player in the league?

What makes his case great against Chamberlain, Russell and Robertson? Let's avoid Robertson vs. West in '66 for conversation's sake. What makes him better than Chamberlain and Russell?

Joao Saraiva wrote:Being ahead of his time doesn't matter... to you. I think it shows how great of a scorer West was, since he had a type of game that was not designed for that era and he still was among the elite and playing superb in the playoffs.

So, you say you don't want to give credit for what ifs, what could/would have beens (interestingly, that was not the situation); and yet being ahead of his time is something of a value? Being ahead of his time is literally a what if scenario...
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #13 

Post#27 » by Doctor MJ » Sun Nov 8, 2020 4:45 pm

Some thoughts on some of the current players:

For me, the next current player I intend to vote for is Curry with the next after him being either Durant or Paul.

I think the Curry vs Durant debate is the bigger one for people as opposed to Curry vs Paul so I'll focus on that:

1. Curry's game has shown considerably more ability to produce countable impact than Durant basically all through their primes. This is an area where Curry's numbers are profound and I think really speak to just how valuable the threat of a shooter can be when that threat is used to manipulate the defense. Curry made everyone's lives easier, most definitely including Durant. You can see this in the highlights if you look for it, but I think Durant's TS% spike in the playoffs on Golden State says quite a lot. And yes, the GS environment is about more than Curry, but Curry was the biggest part and the space he created for Durant is the most tangible thing.

I just think there's a truth with Durant that he doesn't have a history that indicates a preternatural notion of "the right play", and guys like that tend to have their impact lag behind their production.

Incidentally, I put Julius Erving in a similar category to Durant on this, but still expect to vote for Erving ahead of Curry. Why? Because he DID have profound impact over an extended run in the ABA on a level beyond Durant, and Erving has considerably greater longevity still to this point from Curry.

Durant has greater longevity than Curry to, but he's closer to Curry than he is to Erving on this front.

2. Being a franchise player matters to me. I want someone I can build around. I want someone who set a tone for locker room culture. I want someone without a big ego. I most definitely want someone without a fragile ego that turns explicitly jealous.

I had Curry ahead of Durant in 2017 but just barely. Curry's had the lead ever since but it became a much bigger one when Durant turned toxic relatively quickly after arriving at his chosen destination after having already left his previous franchise after years of telling them he was happy.

To me Curry's legacy to this point is considerably more accomplished than anyone current playing other than LeBron.

Re: Durant vs Paul. This one was tough for me in 2017 but I had expected that by 2020 Durant would be the easy choice. Turns out, not so much for the aforementioned reasons. Meanwhile CP3 has had a strange journey of his own. Like Durant, I do hold what's happened with Paul - toxic cultures developing on his last two teams - against him at least to some degree. Not saying Paul is the only one in those situations that deserves blame - also not saying KD is the only one in his situations that deserves blame - but while I do blame Harden for his contribution to the messy divorce, it was Paul's job when coming to Houston to make sure Harden was happy playing with him in the same way it's always your job to make sure your new boss is happy.

You can say "Maybe was saying what Harden needed to hear and Harden wasn't mature enough to listen", but just as it was in Paul's self-interest to get that mega-contract, it was also in his self-interest to play for a contender. When he was planning out his move away from the House of Rivers, he sure as hell didn't want to end up on a team that was rebuilding like OKC, so objectively, he blew it, and maybe more subjectively, he sure seems to have blown it in Houston for reasons that relate to why his relationships on the Clippers soured so.

Now I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that Paul's '19-20 on the Thunder is a feather in his cap. Paul remains a guy with a clear feel for the game that allows him to add value from possession to possession in a way a guy like Durant doesn't. That's no small thing.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #13 

Post#28 » by Odinn21 » Sun Nov 8, 2020 5:04 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:Now I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that Paul's '19-20 on the Thunder is a feather in his cap. Paul remains a guy with a clear feel for the game that allows him to add value from possession to possession in a way a guy like Durant doesn't. That's no small thing.

I think Paul showed once again that his sense of the game is truly among the most remarkable ones in 2019-20 season.
Had his injuries not hurt his team's chances in many critical points in the playoffs, he could've been way higher on the list.

BTW, I'd like to see your take on Wade compared to those 3. Wade did not share his prime with those names. But I think he's among them. I'd probably rank Wade the highest but I think he's more in those 3's territory, rather than Barkley's.
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Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #13 

Post#29 » by DQuinn1575 » Sun Nov 8, 2020 5:15 pm

Joao Saraiva wrote:
Odinn21 wrote:
Joao Saraiva wrote:- Very good in the RS, #2 in the MVP voting 4 times in a league he had no business discussing the award with his style of play;

Shouldn't you be rewarding Robertson more than West if this is important for you? Since he actually won one? And he had further 1 second place and 3 third place finishes.

Odinn21 wrote:Since MVP's inception, these are the first 3 non-big players won the award;
Bob Cousy in 1957 (Russell's rookie season which he missed one third of season with 24 games and Chamberlain wasn't around.)
Oscar Robertson in 1964 (Right in the middle of Russell's and Chamberlain's prime, West and Baylor were also around and in their respective primes.)
Julius Erving in 1981.


Joao Saraiva wrote:- Major playoff contributor. Elevated his game even more and has several years that with his consistency he could be considered player of the year;

I'd like to see your PotY list because I can't think of a single one. Even in 1970, West's best season to argue for, Reed was better than West up until his injury.

Joao Saraiva wrote:- Great shooter, ahead of his time;

Being ahead of his time shouldn't matter this much.

Joao Saraiva wrote:- very well deserved FMVP in a loss.

This should be just an anecdote. We don't even know if they gave the award to West to reward his heroics. There were bunch of stories about the voters thinking the Lakers as the victorious. And there were bunch of other performances that could've gotten the award in losing situations. As a criteria, don't see the point of rewarding such an outlier.

Surely, West is a great pick here. Definitely among the contention and has a very strong case. Don't think I'd agree with these points though.


Oscar won one. All right.

He was 2nd once.
3rd 3 times.

West was 2nd four times.
3rd once.

There is no big gap there even if we add the MVP award for Robertson.

About the voters not even knowing that Boston won... I don't buy that. West was clearly the best player of the series.

About Reed... we're living again in the world of could and would but did not do. That's why I don't rank Oscar over Jerry West - oh he could have done very well in the playoffs... or KG... he could have done this and that... yeah, but they didn't.

So you don't see a case for 66 West being the best player in the league?

Being ahead of his time doesn't matter... to you. I think it shows how great of a scorer West was, since he had a type of game that was not designed for that era and he still was among the elite and playing superb in the playoffs.


No, Wilt was clearly the best player in 1966,
and Oscar and West were basically even, West got a couple of more votes for MVP, but the stats are real close.

And Oscar beat West EVERY year in MVP voting from 1961-1968 except 1, where it was real close. And in 1969, Oscar was 1st team all-NBA, while West was 2nd.
I checked the Sporting News in 1966 to see their Player of the Year voting, which was not given. But in talking about Oscar, it said,
"Robertson, generally considered as the greatest all-around player in the NBA, because if he cant find clearance to score himself, he can spot a teammate who will." This is just a typical comment of the time, you can find many contemporary quotes that Oscar was the best all-around player of the 60.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #13 

Post#30 » by eminence » Sun Nov 8, 2020 5:20 pm

Yeah, as I've thought about it more I'm pretty sold on Mikan here and kind of regret not voting for him a bit earlier. He really did own the league in a way nobody else remaining did (save perhaps for Curry). I know Doc gives West points for continuing to be a bit of a basketball visionary after retiring, and I see some of the same for Mikan with his ABA time.

I really really don't like the story of West as some unmatched playoff performer that Oscar can't hope to compare to. West's Lakers beat 1 positive SRS team prior to Wilt arriving (+1.4 '63 Hawks) the same number as Oscar and the Royals (+3.4 '63 Nats). Celtics/Wilt's Sixers are far above any other teams from the era and account for 5 of Oscars' 6 playoff losses during that time. The driving factor here is far and away which conference each played in.

West 0-5 against Celtics
West 7-2 against others (losses to the '61 and '64 Hawks)
*not counting '67 where West missed the playoffs

Oscar 0-5 against Celtics/Sixers
Oscar 2-1 against others (losing to the '62 Pistons)
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #13 

Post#31 » by Joao Saraiva » Sun Nov 8, 2020 5:39 pm

Odinn21 wrote:
Joao Saraiva wrote:There is no big gap there even if we add the MVP award for Robertson.

Considering Robertson won that award over near-peak Russell and Chamberlain and West did not get after the two left their primes should speak volumes if MVP is an important criteria for you.
Also you're talking like 2nd place matters a lot. In West's situation, it only mattered once when he was an actual candidate in 1970 (in the season Russell was no longer around any more and Chamberlain nearly missed entire of it).

Robertson's MVP is not something scoff at by saying "all right" when West only came close to winning one only once against far worse competition.

Joao Saraiva wrote:About the voters not even knowing that Boston won... I don't buy that. West was clearly the best player of the series.

You want to give West for being the best player in that series? Go ahead. You want to give credit for winning that FMVP award? That doesn't make sense.

Joao Saraiva wrote:About Reed... we're living again in the world of could and would but did not do. That's why I don't rank Oscar over Jerry West - oh he could have done very well in the playoffs... or KG... he could have done this and that... yeah, but they didn't.

Interesting thing to say because this is directly "ahead of his time" argument and I did not say anything about anything about Reed's what ifs.
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar did not miss out on being the best player of 1979-80 season by missing one game at the end of the season. Very similarly, Reed got a well-deserved MVP, led the Knicks to a historic 60W, in the playoffs he played against arguably the toughest positional competition ever (Unseld, Abdul-Jabbar and Chamberlain). In the playoffs, up until his injury, he was 26/15/3 against these names. More importantly 32/15/4 against Chamberlain over 4 games.

And you are dismissing what Reed had already accomplished as a what if? That's not accurate.
So many dismissive arguments when you clearly do not evaluate the regarding situations properly.

Joao Saraiva wrote:So you don't see a case for 66 West being the best player in the league?

What makes his case great against Chamberlain, Russell and Robertson? Let's avoid Robertson vs. West in '66 for conversation's sake. What makes him better than Chamberlain and Russell?

Joao Saraiva wrote:Being ahead of his time doesn't matter... to you. I think it shows how great of a scorer West was, since he had a type of game that was not designed for that era and he still was among the elite and playing superb in the playoffs.

So, you say you don't want to give credit for what ifs, what could/would have beens (interestingly, that was not the situation); and yet being ahead of his time is something of a value? Being ahead of his time is literally a what if scenario...


I'll address the rest later. But beinh ahead of his time is not a what if scenario from what I wrote. I just told that in a game that wasn't suited for him, he still came by as one of the best if not the best at times. I'm giving him credit for what he actually did in his time. I'm not saying he'd translate better into today's game, so you missed that point completely.

It's like a guy coming in today and dominating in the post up, in an offense that thrives trough him. It's not natural, and for a build to work arround him is because he has to be ultra elite with his skills.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #13 

Post#32 » by mailmp » Sun Nov 8, 2020 5:42 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:I think we've seen indicators that West was an exceptionally capable passer as well. That '67-68 vBK offense was Princetonian. It involved motion and read & react thinking, and when West played, it was the greatest offense in the history of the game to that point.


... narrowly edging Wilt’s 76ers from the year prior (and they won a title), but I did not see people championing Wilt as a top of the line passer for that. And then Kareem led a top offence the second he arrived in the league, and further blowing away everyone with a new “best ever” offence when Oscar arrived (who again had led the league’s top offence basically every year since his arrival except for the three just mentioned...), but I saw plenty criticising his impact. West and this historic 1968 offence is starting to border on 2009 Brandon Roy levels of parody.

Once again the Magic/Bird analogies work very well to me. Oscar passed more like Magic, West more like Bird. Does that give Oscar an advantage?


... Yes.

I'm fine with people saying slightly so, but the gap isn't likely to be massive+, and when you add that West was likely a better scorer and a considerably stronger defender, to me West has the overall edge whenever I compare Oscar & West's games.


This reflects a trend I have seen develop where people functionally pretend that passing just stops mattering at a certain level. Oscar/Magic and West/Bird were both good, therefore, the gap is not that large, so then when you look at one scoring at more volume and playing better defence, oh, I guess that outweighs the one skill of passing!

But that is not actually how it goes. The reason Magic is better than Bird is because yes his passing is that additive. Nash is better than Paul at his peak despite dramatically weaker defence and lower scoring volume because yes his passing is that additive. I acknowledge the peak between Oscar and West is close, and if someone gives the narrowest of peak edges overall to West then so be it... but Oscar’s passing really was that additive, and 1968 can only carry this argument of West as a top tier passer so far. Basketball is not just about ticking off skill boxes.

I can still see an argument for Oscar over West based on his early advantage in impact, and I recognize that he also has a small longevity edge, but when West put it all together, I think he was better, and he was still a top tier MVP candidate like this after Oscar's sun was clearly in the process of setting.


I think the gap between 1961-65 Oscar and West is dramatically larger than the gap between 1966-70 Oscar and West (especially considering the 1967 postseason injury) — and then I do not see West’s 1972-74 West having much of an edge over 1971-74 Oscar at all because, again, guess who was there the whole time (but even if you just get rid of Oscar’s worst year of those four, I still do not think West is really topping him by much).
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #13 

Post#33 » by LA Bird » Sun Nov 8, 2020 6:22 pm

1. Dirk Nowitzki
2. Karl Malone
3. Oscar Robertson

I have Dirk as the best offensive big man ever. Even when playing with an all time offensive great like Nash, he was the most impactful player on the team and he continued to improve after Nash left. Dirk peaked as arguably the best player in the league in 06 and 11 and had great longevity. The Mavs with Dirk had 11 consecutive 50 win seasons, the most of any team except the Duncan Spurs and Magic Lakers. He was also a great playoffs performer and rates well in all advanced stats, +/- and WOWY metrics. He may be the least versatile of all the all time greats but the result speaks for itself.

In terms of regular season production, Karl Malone is probably top 5 all time. However, like Stockton, Malone's decline in the playoffs is part of the reason why the Jazz weren't as successful in the postseason as they could have been. Malone's isolation game was good enough for him to be a solid first option but he would have been better off using his strength to bulldoze his way inside like Barkley instead of relying on a unreliable mid range jump shot.

Not sure where to rank Oscar defensively but he was the best offensive player of the 60s. Shooting and off ball value is important but I think it has become overrated to a certain extent now for lead stars because many assume that just because a player can shoot means they will have Curry-like gravity. Bird/West benefit from this the most while their contemporaries Magic/Oscar is penalized for it even though players of a similar mold in LeBron and Doncic are still highly successful.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #13 

Post#34 » by eminence » Sun Nov 8, 2020 6:26 pm

I guess a big difference I'm seeing between others and I on West, I'm not all that high on his passing. I don't think it particularly deserves comparison to the likes of Oscar/Bird, and is closer to the Kobe/Wades of the world than the elites.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #13 

Post#35 » by eminence » Sun Nov 8, 2020 7:01 pm

Not exactly a serious analysis or point, but some games I was looking at (evaluating each with greater talent, especially Oscar), West v Oscar in the Allstar game from '63-'70 (minus '69 which West missed due to injury and '66 where he went out early). East wins 5-1 losing only in '67 (Barry goes nuts).

Oscar - 34.0 mpg, 23.3 ppg @ 59.8 TS%, 5.3 rpg, 6.0 apg
West - 34.5 mpg, 17.5 ppg @ 50.2 TS%, 5.0 rpg, 5.5 apg
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #13 

Post#36 » by Doctor MJ » Sun Nov 8, 2020 8:44 pm

Odinn21 wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:Now I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that Paul's '19-20 on the Thunder is a feather in his cap. Paul remains a guy with a clear feel for the game that allows him to add value from possession to possession in a way a guy like Durant doesn't. That's no small thing.

I think Paul showed once again that his sense of the game is truly among the most remarkable ones in 2019-20 season.
Had his injuries not hurt his team's chances in many critical points in the playoffs, he could've been way higher on the list.

BTW, I'd like to see your take on Wade compared to those 3. Wade did not share his prime with those names, unlike them. But I think he's among them. I'd probably rank Wade the highest but I think he's more in those 3's territory, rather than Barkley's.


I wouldn't quite put Paul at the very top of minds like this because to me he doesn't adapt to his teammates like you'd want. The Cliippers were supposed to be Lob City. When you come to a team with young Griffin and Jordan, you should be looking to attack in transition like crazy if you're a point guard who can truly do it all. Instead Paul and does what Paul likes: Play slow, look to eek out small advantages with low risk.

To play on Voltaire: While the perfect is the enemy of the good, the good can be the enemy of the great.

But you're asking about Wade here, and I do see Wade as someone more like Erving/Durant and less like Paul. I think Wade had a simple game that worked best when he had his motor on full blast, and because his decision making instincts were largely in the right direction, you generally don't see a lot of wasted effort from him...but that doesn't mean he was super-flexible in what he could do. Maybe he had the brain for most things and was just limited by things like shooting ability, but by and large I don't see Wade as being in the conversation for smarter players the way Paul is.

Wade is definitely in debates with guys like Paul, Durant, and Barkley for me. I'm not sure how I'm going to come down on things.

I do think at this point that Paul has a clear cut edge over Wade on longevity, and so given what I've already said, I feel a pull to put Paul over Wade.

On Durant vs Wade, this one's interesting. As with the Paul comparison, Durant has an advantage in seeming to scale better than Wade. Being a 7 footer who is a fantastic shooter, fantastic in isolation, and quite capable on defense, gives you some advantages over shorter guys. But when it comes to the franchise player thing, Wade has a glaring advantage over Durant. Sure things likely would have been different in OKC if they'd won an early championship and Wade and the Heat were profoundly lucky to get that '06 title, but we can no longer pretend that Durant is just "normal" personality-wise compared to other superstars. His insecurity and tendency toward grudges is a serious problem, and if you're looking to draft Durant vs Wade, you absolutely need a plan to coddle Durant much like you need to with Shaq or Wilt. And at least so far, it seems likely that even when you coddle him, he's still going to become unhappy and rip your heart out.

On Barkley: Similarly, it's hard to see drafting Barkley above Wade. There are just issues there with his effort and explosive temper that are going to be hard to manage and will likely result in spotty effort from him. While I don't think Barkley has the same kind of insecurity that Durant does, and he absolutely doesn't hold a grudge the way Durant does, I do think Durant's game is more potent and effort isn't the same level of concern for him the way it is for Barkley.

What all this means is that I expect to have Barkley below these other guys mentioned.

While I'm at it I'll bring up Nash. I don't know where I'll put him, but I'll say that Nash vs Paul is very much an open question for me. I've thought for a long time that Paul would eventually have such an edge on Nash in longevity that he'll definitively take the comparison, but it's still never been that clear cut for me.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #13 

Post#37 » by Doctor MJ » Sun Nov 8, 2020 9:08 pm

mailmp wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:I think we've seen indicators that West was an exceptionally capable passer as well. That '67-68 vBK offense was Princetonian. It involved motion and read & react thinking, and when West played, it was the greatest offense in the history of the game to that point.


... narrowly edging Wilt’s 76ers from the year prior (and they won a title), but I did not see people championing Wilt as a top of the line passer for that. And then Kareem led a top offence the second he arrived in the league, and further blowing away everyone with a new “best ever” offence when Oscar arrived (who again had led the league’s top offence basically every year since his arrival except for the three just mentioned...), but I saw plenty criticising his impact. West and this historic 1968 offence is starting to border on 2009 Brandon Roy levels of parody.


I have to say up front that your way of phrasing stuff is getting me close to the point of not talking to you any more. Your tone once again has a taunting flavor that is irritating. You want to come here and have thoughtful conversation with us? Please be polite. I'm not perfect at this either, and that is why I have to consider ceasing a conversation.

The fact that West's team's offense only slightly surpassed the existing best offense of all time which was also not run by Oscar is not much of an argument against West.

The other component that needs to remembered is that West missed a chunk of the season and that the team's ORtg in West's games are a lot higher. West was the central piece in what was clearly the best offense to that point in league history, and that offense was based on read & react play which to my mind is generally the ultimate test on how well you can think on the court.

Keep in mind though that I'm not trying to use this to say West > Oscar on this front, I'm just saying that if there's any notion that West didn't show himself to be extraordinarily capable as a passer beyond the vast majority of volume scorers, there's clear evidence suggesting otherwise.

To the notion of it being only one season, with regards to career achievement I get that, but if we're talking about skills and capacity, it doesn't matter what fraction of a player's career he did something if we have evidence to suggest he was capable of doing it in general.

mailmp wrote:
I'm fine with people saying slightly so, but the gap isn't likely to be massive+, and when you add that West was likely a better scorer and a considerably stronger defender, to me West has the overall edge whenever I compare Oscar & West's games.


This reflects a trend I have seen develop where people functionally pretend that passing just stops mattering at a certain level. Oscar/Magic and West/Bird were both good, therefore, the gap is not that large, so then when you look at one scoring at more volume and playing better defence, oh, I guess that outweighs the one skill of passing!

But that is not actually how it goes. The reason Magic is better than Bird is because yes his passing is that additive. Nash is better than Paul at his peak despite dramatically weaker defence and lower scoring volume because yes his passing is that additive. I acknowledge the peak between Oscar and West is close, and if someone gives the narrowest of peak edges overall to West then so be it... but Oscar’s passing really was that additive, and 1968 can only carry this argument of West as a top tier passer so far. Basketball is not just about ticking off skill boxes.


I don't consider "additive" to be a meaningful descriptor here, just personally. To me great passing should be in effect multiplicative (or choose whatever non-linear function you prefer). You're trying to unlock opportunities for your team based on what you see in any given moment, and when you have multiple guys on your team who can do this, it presents a more qualitative increase in what's possible for your team.

I think it does have to be noted that the offenses that Oscar led were literally ineffective compared to those that would come later. He deserves plenty of credit for being the most effective offensive player in the game for first half decade or so of his career, but this was a time ripe for further revolution. It should not be suggested that Oscar was doing everything definitively in the best possible way, only that he had first rate passing abilities, both in vision and execution.

In the end, I'm hard pressed not to say something similar about West.

mailmp wrote:
I can still see an argument for Oscar over West based on his early advantage in impact, and I recognize that he also has a small longevity edge, but when West put it all together, I think he was better, and he was still a top tier MVP candidate like this after Oscar's sun was clearly in the process of setting.


I think the gap between 1961-65 Oscar and West is dramatically larger than the gap between 1966-70 Oscar and West (especially considering the 1967 postseason injury) — and then I do not see West’s 1972-74 West having much of an edge over 1971-74 Oscar at all because, again, guess who was there the whole time (but even if you just get rid of Oscar’s worst year of those four, I still do not think West is really topping him by much).


I think it's completely find to say that '61-65 makes the difference for you in this comparison.

What I'm saying is that given what each guy eventually proved, I think West was the superior all-around player.

A tennis analogy comes to mind:

I think most people are familiar with Chris Evert vs Martina Navratilova.

Most people simply assume Navratilova deserves to be ranked higher and don't realize that if we look only at singles accomplishments, Evert really had the more decorated career.

But both players kept getting better over the course of their run, and eventually Navratilova's super body surpassed Evert's superior mind. At their best, Navratilova was clearly better, and that's why people rarely make the case for Evert any more.

I'm using more Navratilova-esque thought rather than more Evert-esque thought when I'm evaluating these two.
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #13 

Post#38 » by Joao Saraiva » Sun Nov 8, 2020 9:28 pm

DQuinn1575 wrote:
Joao Saraiva wrote:
Odinn21 wrote:Shouldn't you be rewarding Robertson more than West if this is important for you? Since he actually won one? And he had further 1 second place and 3 third place finishes.




I'd like to see your PotY list because I can't think of a single one. Even in 1970, West's best season to argue for, Reed was better than West up until his injury.


Being ahead of his time shouldn't matter this much.


This should be just an anecdote. We don't even know if they gave the award to West to reward his heroics. There were bunch of stories about the voters thinking the Lakers as the victorious. And there were bunch of other performances that could've gotten the award in losing situations. As a criteria, don't see the point of rewarding such an outlier.

Surely, West is a great pick here. Definitely among the contention and has a very strong case. Don't think I'd agree with these points though.


Oscar won one. All right.

He was 2nd once.
3rd 3 times.

West was 2nd four times.
3rd once.

There is no big gap there even if we add the MVP award for Robertson.

About the voters not even knowing that Boston won... I don't buy that. West was clearly the best player of the series.

About Reed... we're living again in the world of could and would but did not do. That's why I don't rank Oscar over Jerry West - oh he could have done very well in the playoffs... or KG... he could have done this and that... yeah, but they didn't.

So you don't see a case for 66 West being the best player in the league?

Being ahead of his time doesn't matter... to you. I think it shows how great of a scorer West was, since he had a type of game that was not designed for that era and he still was among the elite and playing superb in the playoffs.


No, Wilt was clearly the best player in 1966,
and Oscar and West were basically even, West got a couple of more votes for MVP, but the stats are real close.

And Oscar beat West EVERY year in MVP voting from 1961-1968 except 1, where it was real close. And in 1969, Oscar was 1st team all-NBA, while West was 2nd.
I checked the Sporting News in 1966 to see their Player of the Year voting, which was not given. But in talking about Oscar, it said,
"Robertson, generally considered as the greatest all-around player in the NBA, because if he cant find clearance to score himself, he can spot a teammate who will." This is just a typical comment of the time, you can find many contemporary quotes that Oscar was the best all-around player of the 60.


Ok.

Still think there is an advantage on playoff West over Oscar during that time.

And why count only till 68 when they played both further than that? (Until 74)
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #13 

Post#39 » by eminence » Sun Nov 8, 2020 9:59 pm

Doc, if Oscar had never went to Milwaukee I might understand your criticism of Oscar failing to lead a revolution (though even in '68 he was a half point behind West in terms of results). As is I'm a bit lost, he went there, and immediately led a spectacular offense the likes of which the league had never seen before.

Here are the +3 offenses each led (I'm not giving Oscar '72/'74 though still a key part of those offenses too) along with the other two +5 offenses through the end of their careers

1. +6.7 1971 Oscar
+5.4 1967 Sixers
2. +5.2 1972 West
*+5.0 1954 Celtics
3. +4.9 1968 West
4. +4.7 1962 Oscar
4. +4.7 1969 Oscar
6. +4.4 1965 Oscar
7. +4.3 1964 Oscar
7. +4.3 1968 Oscar
9. +3.8 1965 West
10. +3.5 1961 Oscar
10. +3.5 1963 Oscar
12. +3.4 1966 West
13. +3.3 1964 West
14. +3.0 1969 West
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Re: RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #13 

Post#40 » by sansterre » Sun Nov 8, 2020 10:28 pm

So. Here's the problem. The most responsible thing I can do in participation with this project is to simply parrot the BackPicks Top 40. Because, quite simply, Ben Taylor is better at this than I am. To use his list, but alter it, is incredibly presumptuous to me. The counterpoint, however, is that a robot simply voting that list would achieve the same result, which I infer is not the point of this exercise.

Accordingly I'll start coming up with picks myself, and my own system, using BackPicks as a reality check and go from there.

I've seen a lot of names discussed. I'm experimenting with some systems (I'm relying on WS/48 mostly, because Win Shares are the only thing that scale across eras for quick comparison), but here are some basic thoughts:

Moses Malone: His skills are distinct, but I'm not seeing much in the way of stats that suggest that he was a stud consistently through his peak (at the level that everyone else is).

Karl Malone: If you rank by regular season then he's obviously #1 right now. But his postseason performance is so weak (compared to the others) that I'm pretty gun-shy of voting for him.

Kevin Durant: If we're going by regular season he has an argument based on pure quality (except that by those standards he's going to finish way behind Karl Malone and David Robinson). But his playoffs show a drop-off; he's still really good but not to the level that he'd need to be for only 700 peak regular season games (arbitrary number) to get him at the front of this list.

Julius Erving and Oscar Robertson: They're actually really comparable. Both were extremely good in the regular season and regressed some in the playoffs. Erving played longer, while Robertson gets some credit for the shorter careers in his era. I suppose I favor Erving a little here.

David Robinson: He was actually quite solid in the playoffs (if maybe not as good as everyone else here) - he was just so damned good in the regular season that the falloff is really disappointing. If you care weighing regular season even remotely seriously you've got to figure he's got the best peak of remaining players right now. His career is so short though that he misses out some.

George Mikan vs. Jerry West: Assuming that Mikan had a peak-Jordan-like effect on his team's championship odds, and we're not penalizing him for his era, he should probably be in the top 4-5 here. And West . . . is notable for playing as well in the playoffs as he did in the regular season (which is rare). And while he doesn't have many seasons outside of his peak, his peak is plenty long. Mikan notwithstanding, he may be the best playoff performer remaining.

Dirk Nowitzki: The length of his peak is frankly stupendous. It's not that he's better than anyone else, but he holds his own and had a peak that went on forever.

The more I theorycraft this discussion, the more I find myself moving toward playoff performance (and using regular season as a control for sample size and as a reflection career length). I'll write more about this, but I'll need to crunch some numbers first. So that leaves:

#1. Dirk Nowitzki - There are better playoff performers remaining (Mikan and West probably) but Dirk performed in the playoffs a little above average for this group, and he did it for so long . . . I can't help but feeling like his championship equity is the best of the group.

#2. Jerry West - West's playoff excellence and length of peak quite brought me around to him. And that he put up 3+% steals in his last (and worst) year is a serious teaser that there's a lot of defensive value we're not crediting him with.

#3. George Mikan - I hate including Mikan at all. The game that long ago is hard to compare. But if we're treating him as a legitimate option, then a player that played at that world-beating level, even if only for a handful of seasons, needs to be considered seriously here.
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