RealGM 2020 Top 100 Project: #15 (Dirk Nowitzki)

[mailmp]

You really believe that Moncrief was better than Moses in 1982 RS? I love Squid, but he arguably wasn't Bucks best player in 1982. Milwaukee had very strong and deep team in 1982, it's silly to compare that to Rockets.

I would rather it go to the defensive anchor of a 5 SRS, -4.6 rDRTG team rather than to the offensive anchor of a negative SRS team, yeah. MVP is famously rarely about who is “better”, but if it is about the best regular season player then Moses still does not win that award.

Yeah, they also lost Robert Reid - decent starter whose absence made Rockets becoming WOAT team.

Yeah when you have a bad team and remove two of the three players capable of playing real minutes, and then that third player falls off a cliff, and then your entire team stops trying, the results tend to be awful. Shocker.

Jones was very good defender, so technically he should have been an upgrade on defense over overrated Moses right?

Who says 1982/83 Caldwell was any sort of ace defender? He was startable. On a team with Maurice Cheeks and Bobby Jones, he was there to not be a liability.

By the way, Jones played 29.8 mpg - you act like he played 20 mpg...

Yes, when I say not playing 30 minutes, that means 20 minutes. Another good one.

That's why it's nice to look at relative numbers

Like how they went from being sixteenth in defence to... eighteenth? Again, stunner. What a collapse.

Do you have anything to back it up?

Well they blatantly did the same thing the next year and save for Hinkie few front offices have ever come outright and said, “WE ARE TRYING TO LOSE,” but I am sure it is more convenient to pretend they were willfully ignorant about what the best course for their team was.

Thanks, I didn't know that...

So why mention him having a top twenty-five peak.

Caldwell Jones:
1. Twice led the ABA in blocks
2. Was 1st team all-defense twice in the 80s
3. Was starting for one of the top 3 teams in the league for years while scoring 7 ppg
4. Had a very good reputation as a good defensive player

If you are questioning his defense then you shouldn't be voting in this.

There are not enough eyerolls in the world to respond to this, so I will instead simply say that the notion of 1983 Caldwell being a not especially notable defensive piece is dramatically better supported than voting for Moses at number 13 or wherever you had him, so I guess I should expect you rescind your ballot, right?

But then again, I guess you could have done that as soon as you concluded OBPM was the box score aggregate Bible...

[eminence]

Yeah, Caldwell was the main big for the Sixers for years, rock solid defender in my book.

[trex_8063]

C.) Their defence went from a 108.3 DRTG... to a 108.3 DRTG. Wow aBsOLuTeLy TerRiBLe.

That's why it's nice to look at relative numbers

Like how they went from being sixteenth in defence to... eighteenth? Again, stunner. What a collapse.

I think he's referring to the +2.2 worsening of their rDRTG; which----while not massive---is sort of *substantial, even if it did only translate to a drop from 16th (of 23) to 19th in the league [*particularly in light of who replaced Malone at C (more on this below)].

If I'm adjudicating on what's been said, I would say 70sFan exaggerated to call it a "collapse"......but you'd not exactly countered in an intellectually honest way by implying [in initial response] that their defense was exactly the same in '83.

Nor am I sure characterizing Caldwell Jones as merely passable defensively is being wholly honest either. He was 32 years old in '83 [not a spry youth in basketball years, but not old either], had sustained no relevant injury during the years in question, and would go on to play SEVEN more seasons AFTER '83........all this to indicate he still had some good basketball in him during the '83 season.

He'd been All-Defensive 1st Team in both '81 and '82, had received 1 mvp vote in '81 [despite averaging just 7.2 ppg], and had been averaging >30 mpg for the last three seasons for a contender-level team while averaging <8 ppg in all three.

Safe to say his career was almost entirely based upon his presence as a defender.

This is not a peaks project.

Really it's whatever participants decide it is. To some, all-time rank IS almost exclusively about peak (which is why we'll likely see Bill Walton name-dropped and lobbied for at some point in the next 20-40 threads, even though I personally will not be going near him at all in the entire project).

[Magic Is Magic]

Voting for the #15 spot:


1. Dirk Nowitzki
2. David Robinson
3. Kevin Durant


It must be noted that Dirk does have his playoff blunder as a favorite (a 1 seed versus an 8 seed loss) but most all all-time greats will have at least one series where they lose as a favorite. What Dirk does have in his resume is everything an all-time great needs to be considered all-time great. He has longevity, he has an MVP, he has a ring, he has a Finals MVP, he also is a great +/- playoff performer among the cream of the crop. Additionally, 30,000 points and 10,000 rebounds with a championship over Wade, Lebron, and Bosh is hard to argue against. Most of the guys someone would argue over Dirk do not have all the accolades that Dirk has: Karl Malone (no ring), George Mikan (no longevity), David Robinson (no Finals MVP), but again, I can admit I could be swayed but I find it hard not to include Dirk in this spot.

I have a hard time ranking Karl Malone high when he had a full career with HOF legend John Stockton and never won a single ring. If you break it down he only ever even made the Finals 2 years in his entire time playing with Stockton (I'm not counting the Lakers blunder as a "Finals appearance"). Maybe I could be swayed, but I have to go with David Robinson here because of his elite ability to play both sides of the ball and him winning 2 rings (one of them as a main piece). The only thing hurting him that Malone definitely has over D-Rob is longevity and longevity is important but D-Rob still played 14 years. David Robinson's skill set is so rare, he has to be one of the very few to win a blocking title and scoring title in a career. Pair that with his DPOY award, an MVP and 2 chips and I think D-Rob wins this spot.

I hate Kevin Durant's move in 2017 but his overall resume is hard to ignore. 4x Scoring Champion, MVP, 3 Finals, 2 Finals MVPs, 11-straight seasons of 25 ppg or more, 10x All Star (Approaching Oscar who had 12), ROY. KD has average 25 ppg or higher every single playoff run and has one of the top 5 all time Finals by GameScore. 14th all time in MVP win shares, 10th all time in playoff points. Again, I hate his move in 2017 but the rest is hard to ignore. I think if he creates a couple of memorable seasons in Brooklyn he will definitely be top 15 material.

[DQuinn1575]

I would rather it go to the defensive anchor of a 5 SRS, -4.6 rDRTG team rather than to the offensive anchor of a negative SRS team, yeah. MVP is famously rarely about who is “better”, but if it is about the best regular season player then Moses still does not win that award.



Yeah when you have a bad team and remove two of the three players capable of playing real minutes, and then that third player falls off a cliff, and then your entire team stops trying, the results tend to be awful. Shocker.



Who says 1982/83 Caldwell was any sort of ace defender? He was startable. On a team with Maurice Cheeks and Bobby Jones, he was there to not be a liability.



Yes, when I say not playing 30 minutes, that means 20 minutes. Another good one.



Like how they went from being sixteenth in defence to... eighteenth? Again, stunner. What a collapse.



Well they blatantly did the same thing the next year and save for Hinkie few front offices have ever come outright and said, “WE ARE TRYING TO LOSE,” but I am sure it is more convenient to pretend they were willfully ignorant about what the best course for their team was.



So why mention him having a top twenty-five peak.

Caldwell Jones:
1. Twice led the ABA in blocks
2. Was 1st team all-defense twice in the 80s
3. Was starting for one of the top 3 teams in the league for years while scoring 7 ppg
4. Had a very good reputation as a good defensive player

If you are questioning his defense then you shouldn't be voting in this.

There are not enough eyerolls in the world to respond to this, so I will instead simply say that the notion of 1983 Caldwell being a not especially notable defensive piece is dramatically better supported than voting for Moses at number 13 or wherever you had him, so I guess I should expect you rescind your ballot, right?

But then again, I guess you could have done that as soon as you concluded OBPM was the box score aggregate Bible...

You got the wrong guy - I didn't have Moses 13, and don't think I've ever even written the letter OBPM together. It doesn't matter too much to me if you take Moses 13 or 26 - he was a dominant player whose style is no longer the way the game is played, so people are going to be divided. That's what makes this interesting, everyone has an opinion. I don't even know who you are picking right now, and I have Dirk right at this spot, but letting others who know him better argue his case. But if you're going to state an opinion on Caldwell Jones, especially if you didn't see him play, then look at what he did. It doesn't take much to go to B-Ref and see the 1st 3 things I listed. B-Ref will also show you that 3 of his brothers played in the league. I had forgotten that Caldwell played with his brother Major in Houston. In case you care, Major was a big time high school star, who was supposed to be the best from his family. Caldwell played 17 years, played until he was 39, and didn't score 1,000 points after his first 2 ABA seasons. How many guys played 14 years in the NBA without a 1,000 point season? My first guess was right - Dennis Rodman. But Jones played 150 more career games. The guy's never going to be anywhere close to the Top 100, unless we do it for a single season.
And Philly keeping their defense basically the same while losing probably their best defensive player is pretty darned good.

[mailmp]

Caldwell Jones:
1. Twice led the ABA in blocks
2. Was 1st team all-defense twice in the 80s
3. Was starting for one of the top 3 teams in the league for years while scoring 7 ppg
4. Had a very good reputation as a good defensive player

If you are questioning his defense then you shouldn't be voting in this.

There are not enough eyerolls in the world to respond to this, so I will instead simply say that the notion of 1983 Caldwell being a not especially notable defensive piece is dramatically better supported than voting for Moses at number 13 or wherever you had him, so I guess I should expect you rescind your ballot, right?

But then again, I guess you could have done that as soon as you concluded OBPM was the box score aggregate Bible...

You got the wrong guy - I didn't have Moses 13, and don't think I've ever even written the letter OBPM together. It doesn't matter too much to me if you take Moses 13 or 26 - he was a dominant player whose style is no longer the way the game is played, so people are going to be divided. That's what makes this interesting, everyone has an opinion.

I don't even know who you are picking right now, and I have Dirk right at this spot, but letting others who know him better argue his case. But if you're going to state an opinion on Caldwell Jones, especially if you didn't see him play, then look at what he did. It doesn't take much to go to B-Ref and see the 1st 3 things I listed... Caldwell played 17 years, played until he was 39, and didn't score 1,000 points after his first 2 ABA seasons. How many guys played 14 years in the NBA without a 1,000 point season? My first guess was right - Dennis Rodman. But Jones played 150 more career games. The guy's never going to be anywhere close to the Top 100, unless we do it for a single season.
And Philly keeping their defense basically the same while losing probably their best defensive player is pretty darned good.

I did mix you up with another name, but the point stands — if you are going to lazily point to basketball-reference and “all-defence” and use that as justification over anything concrete, then I am not the one who needs to worry about not properly earning a vote.

But hey, even with basketball reference: 1983 Caldwell drops his shotblocking and has career lows in rebounding, defensive winshares, DRTG, DBPM, DPIPM... the latter four continuing a general downward trend from the year prior and earlier (on top of just generally having shite wowyr numbers for his prime). His defensive on/off — a metric people looooooooove to trumpet when it comes to those 76ers — had dropped the prior two years to merely being a mild positive, and in 1982 he was not even a reliable starter. His defensive numbers further dropped in 1984, and by 1985 he was a 20mpg player.

But please, tell me how incredibly great he was because he led the ABA in blocks per game a decade earlier and managed to stick around as a bench piece for six years; that seems like a surefire way to really show you know your stuff.

Mind you, you were so eager to vapidly interject with some of the most laughable gatekeeping I have seen on this site that you plainly did not even bother to follow any of the context. For someone so caught up on name value, maybe the drop-off from Elvin Hayes should have been the bigger highlight on that Rockets team; alas, I suppose for whatever reason this tortured logic chain seemed the easier route...

[70sFan]

Anyone who questions early 1980s Jones defense simply never watched him. I hate to use this argument, but it's true in this case.

[70sFan]

Do you have anything to back it up?

So, I have to say, my first thought here was: C'mon, the Rockets' tank job was legendary. It clearly happened!

But as I look into it, I'm hard-pressed to see "tank job" as an excuse for how bad they were in '82-83.

In the first game of the season they lost by more than 30 points and they would start the season 0-10 with Elvin Hayes continuing to rack up his double digits. I realize that playing through Hayes was in effect a good way to successfully tank, but realistically, you don't put out 37 year old guys to purposefully tank. You might embrace the "organic tank" when it occurs, but I really don't think Houston started out that bad because they were trying to be bad and/or do a youth movement.

I will say that the Rockets also lost Robert Reid that year, but while that certainly didn't help, it's hard for me to argue that I think Reid's presence would have made a qualitative difference here. The story of the season actually seems pretty close to the "oversimplistic" narrative that without Moses there rebounding his teammates' plentiful misses and scoring from them, the other team did.

Part of what's interesting there to me is that that's now how the Rocket's offense rise arose. As you're no doubt aware, the Rockets became a great offensive team on the backs of Rudy Tomjanovich and Calvin Murphy. The addition of Moses made that offense even better, but his initial impact with those big numbers was nowhere near what the '82-83 team's folly would imply.

To me it seems like over time the team's non-Moses scoring ability just eroded and eroded but Moses being Moses bailed them out. And thus when he left, there really wasn't anything left.

Yeah, I don't think how you can see it differently than you summarize. Rockets were decent team when Moses joined them in late 1970s, but they got older and older as the time moved on. By 1982 they relied on Moses heavily and it's visible in next season.

[Doctor MJ]

Anyone who questions early 1980s Jones defense simply never watched him. I hate to use this argument, but it's true in this case.

EDIT: Nvm, wrong Jones. I need to pay more attention clearly.

That post cries out for a link to a choice video. Got a fave?

To post something:

Watch on YouTube

Words that spring to mind:

long
physically quick
mentally quick
great motor
great touch
fully committed
great in transition
Mr. Out of Nowhere Block
Mr. Saves the Ball from Going Out of Bounds

[mailmp]

Correct Jones in terms of 76ers defensive anchor, MJ, but incorrect in terms of the discussion.

Anyone who questions early 1980s Jones defense simply never watched him. I hate to use this argument, but it's true in this case.

Oh yeah I bet you watched tons of 1983 Rockets film. Or maybe it was all that film you watched of 20 mpg Caldwell becoming a bench piece apparently because his late-career offence only merited that much, rather than because of his clear defensive degradation...

[70sFan]

Anyone who questions early 1980s Jones defense simply never watched him. I hate to use this argument, but it's true in this case.

Oh yeah I bet you watched tons of 1983 Rockets film. Or maybe it was all that film you watched of 20 mpg Caldwell becoming a bench piece apparently because his late-career offence only merited that much, rather than because of his clear defensive degradation...

No, but I've seen a lot of 1982 Sixers games and I've seen a few 1984 Rockets games.

[mailmp]

You mean when they added McCray and Sampson and got back Reid and still were basically the same level defence they were the prior two years?

[70sFan]

You mean when they added McCray and Sampson and got back Reid and still were basically the same level defence they were the prior two years?

Yes.

[Dutchball97]

1. Kevin Durant - Plenty of people have outspoken their disgust for the KD pick. In a voter pool that seems to put a lot of emphasis on longevity in terms of total minutes/games/seasons played in the regular season and a tendency to value players more in terms of what they could've done than what they actually did, that is not a surprise. However, I'm not someone who rates players by total minutes or portability.

Karl Malone was a very consistent play-off performer, in that he consistently underperformed. Dirk has a pretty similar case to KD so he's definitely someone I'm keeping an eye on but KD has a pretty big edge in terms of the regular season imo and with Dirk being the posterchild of inconsistent play-off performance, seemingly switching from elite to disappointment every other season, I don't see this as all that close. Sure, KD has some questionmarks on his durability as well but someone missing some games due to being injured isn't the same as inexplicably underperforming every other year.

2. Julius Erving - I'm still not settled on where exactly to place Dr J. To me he's the hardest All-Time great to rank aside from Mikan. My main concern with his case is that he needed a couple years to settle into the NBA. Now what helps him there is that pretty much the entire league was in turmoil because of the merger and he wasn't particularly an outlier here. He did come back to elite form. It's a shame that by the time he won the 83 ring he was just past his prime. If he had won the 83 ring as the best player I wouldn't have nearly as many doubts as I do now. This is still the best player the ABA ever produced and who more than proved his worth in the NBA as well.

3. Stephen Curry - Half of my arguments in the top 100 project seem to be about consistency and Curry has to be high on that list as well. He does have a bit of a Karl Malone problem where his play-offs just tend to be a bit worse than his regular seasons but the difference is that Curry's quality per season both in the regular season and play-offs is just quite a bit better than Malone.

I also considered Wade, who I think can't be seperated too much from Dirk in an All-Time sense. I looked at Moses and D-Rob but I'm not really feeling either of their cases yet. I did consider Dirk, Barkley and Karl Malone but I'm starting to think Bob Pettit might be the 3rd best PF of All-Time. He was the king of the late 50s and held up extremely well against the likes of Russell, Wilt, West, Baylor and Oscar in the early-mid 60s. I haven't seen anyone champion him yet but I think he at least has a good case ahead of Mikan and I wouldn't mind him ahead of the likes of Dirk, Barkley and Malone either. Would like to hear some others on this.

[penbeast0]

Anyone who questions early 1980s Jones defense simply never watched him. I hate to use this argument, but it's true in this case.

That post cries out for a link to a choice video. Got a fave?

To post something:

Watch on YouTube

Words that spring to mind:

long
physically quick
mentally quick
great motor
great touch
fully committed
great in transition
Mr. Out of Nowhere Block
Mr. Saves the Ball from Going Out of Bounds

Wish you hadn't used Bobby Jones for your video since they are talking about Caldwell and, well, some might get them confused because of having the same surname.

[DQuinn1575]

There are not enough eyerolls in the world to respond to this, so I will instead simply say that the notion of 1983 Caldwell being a not especially notable defensive piece is dramatically better supported than voting for Moses at number 13 or wherever you had him, so I guess I should expect you rescind your ballot, right?

But then again, I guess you could have done that as soon as you concluded OBPM was the box score aggregate Bible...

You got the wrong guy - I didn't have Moses 13, and don't think I've ever even written the letter OBPM together. It doesn't matter too much to me if you take Moses 13 or 26 - he was a dominant player whose style is no longer the way the game is played, so people are going to be divided. That's what makes this interesting, everyone has an opinion.

I don't even know who you are picking right now, and I have Dirk right at this spot, but letting others who know him better argue his case. But if you're going to state an opinion on Caldwell Jones, especially if you didn't see him play, then look at what he did. It doesn't take much to go to B-Ref and see the 1st 3 things I listed... Caldwell played 17 years, played until he was 39, and didn't score 1,000 points after his first 2 ABA seasons. How many guys played 14 years in the NBA without a 1,000 point season? My first guess was right - Dennis Rodman. But Jones played 150 more career games. The guy's never going to be anywhere close to the Top 100, unless we do it for a single season.
And Philly keeping their defense basically the same while losing probably their best defensive player is pretty darned good.

I did mix you up with another name, but the point stands — if you are going to lazily point to basketball-reference and “all-defence” and use that as justification over anything concrete, then I am not the one who needs to worry about not properly earning a vote.

But hey, even with basketball reference: 1983 Caldwell drops his shotblocking and has career lows in rebounding, defensive winshares, DRTG, DBPM, DPIPM... the latter four continuing a general downward trend from the year prior and earlier (on top of just generally having shite wowyr numbers for his prime). His defensive on/off — a metric people looooooooove to trumpet when it comes to those 76ers — had dropped the prior two years to merely being a mild positive, and in 1982 he was not even a reliable starter. His defensive numbers further dropped in 1984, and by 1985 he was a 20mpg player.

But please, tell me how incredibly great he was because he led the ABA in blocks per game a decade earlier and managed to stick around as a bench piece for six years; that seems like a surefire way to really show you know your stuff.

Mind you, you were so eager to vapidly interject with some of the most laughable gatekeeping I have seen on this site that you plainly did not even bother to follow any of the context. For someone so caught up on name value, maybe the drop-off from Elvin Hayes should have been the bigger highlight on that Rockets team; alas, I suppose for whatever reason this tortured logic chain seemed the easier route...

I'm only bringing up the point on Caldwell Jones defense; not quite sure why I disagree on your opinion of his defense his tortured logic.
1982 he was 3rd in minutes played on the team, more than Bobby Jones, Mo Cheeks, Dawkins, Hollins. I think if you are playing more than Mo Cheeks and Bobby Jones you are fairly reliable.
If you are positive on-off on a 58 win team, that is pretty darned good. I would have guessed Caldwell Jones was negative on-off on a 58 win team. So when he was on the court, a 58 win team was better than that?
I didn't lazily point to basketball-reference; I used that as documentation of facts cited, in this case it the quickest most credible place to find them. I knew Jones had a couple of first team all-defense, but after 40 years you forget a couple of details. Actually, I think the fact that he played in the league until age 39 is pretty concrete - I'm not sure what your case is for Jones not being good on defense.
Yes he got worse in 1983 at age 32; you get worse when you are past your prime age period. I think Elvin Hayes is also proof of that.
But not too many guys are starting 40 NBA games at age 38 - especially those that never averaged 15 ppg in the NBA. There are reasons they kept him around so long.
Caldwell Jones was a pretty good defensive player. I don't think I need to post any more. It's a side comment to talking about these great players.

[mailmp]

You are clearly not even bothering to read and have no idea what I am arguing, and forgetting that Bobby Jones had perpetual health issues keeping his minutes low is hardly a ringing endorsement of your memory.

[eminence]

I will say I'm on the side of the '83 Rockets intentionally tanking it. They were not talented, that's true, but they weren't *that* bad either, more of a classic 25-30 win squad obviously going nowhere that decided to mail it in.

[Whopper_Sr]

I'm considering these 5 guys: Paul, Dirk, Curry, Nash, and Robinson

I brought up Paul in previous rounds when it was still early for him to be considered but now he should get some serious consideration.

Dirk: Clearly the best offensive big left on the board with Kareem and Shaq voted in. Defense isn't a huge plus but not a negative either, at least for his era. Became incredibly resilient in the playoffs towards the back half of his prime. Peak/Prime/Longevity are all very strong. Massive offensive gravity due to height/iso-scoring prowess and elite floor spacing. Aside from a couple of playoff blips and rather pedestrian defense, he has a rock solid resume for a spot in the top 15.

Curry: Highest peak (2017) among eligible players. Great argument for top 5 offensive player ever. GOAT level shooter not just from downtown but also from mid-range and at the stripe. Underrated finisher too. Smart team defender but not a needle mover although it's not a big knock since he's a small. Some concerns with inconsistency in the playoffs. He has 7 strong seasons under his belt (13-19) and he was very good early in his career as well. Lack of longevity is what is holding him back still. One of the most portable and scalable players ever. I expect him to climb all the way up to a top 10-ish placement in a few years.

Nash: Arguably the GOAT offensive player. May be even more lethal than Curry as a shooter. Masterful passer leaning high risk high reward style (more valuable than a conservative approach?). Reached his prime later in his career and he loses some value from his Dallas days where his role wasn't ideal even if he was fully capable of doing what he did in Phoenix. Poor defender due to physical limitations. Probably a half tier or even a tier below Curry. Still, his offensive production during his tenure with the Suns was so great that he cannot be ignored in this discussion. I'm confident he would be breaking a slew of shooting efficiency numbers (on respectable volume) had he been playing today.

Robinson: Tricky to rank him. Particularly concerned about his numerous subpar playoff showings and how his offense can be severely curtailed by good playoff defenses. I see similarities with KG but quite a bit worse on offense due to Garnett's superior passing and shooting. Longevity isn't great either although I do like his post-prime production and fit next to Duncan (maintained value as a 1972 Wilt type role). He did peak high and his prime years were strong enough to consider him but I like the other candidates more.

1. Dirk Nowitzki
2. Chris Paul
3. Steve Nash

[Doctor MJ]

Anyone who questions early 1980s Jones defense simply never watched him. I hate to use this argument, but it's true in this case.

That post cries out for a link to a choice video. Got a fave?

To post something:

Watch on YouTube

Words that spring to mind:

long
physically quick
mentally quick
great motor
great touch
fully committed
great in transition
Mr. Out of Nowhere Block
Mr. Saves the Ball from Going Out of Bounds

Wish you hadn't used Bobby Jones for your video since they are talking about Caldwell and, well, some might get them confused because of having the same surname.

D'oh! Sorry.