[Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Jazz

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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Jazz 

Post#21 » by Dr Positivity » Mon May 17, 2021 6:59 am

falcolombardi wrote:dantley scoring volume + efficiency is unreal so how come the offensive results were so mediocre?

was it bad spacing?, bad offensive teammates?, bad passer?


Yes, as a unique post up forward he may have held the ball too long.

I don't like separating offense/defense since good offensive players can play in defensive systems, but in terms of overall impact there are a lot of questionable signs from him. The Jazz had some pretty bad seasons with him in his prime and the Lakers and Pistons both taking off chemistry wise after getting rid of him isn't a good sign for him. He could have also just cancelled out a lot of his impact on defense.
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Jazz 

Post#22 » by Odinn21 » Mon May 17, 2021 7:17 am

Dantley must be one of the most disrespected players ever.

No, he did not hold the ball too long.

The amount of sh.t he gets for Zeke throwing a tantrum because the Detroit FO brought Dantley over his buddy is just uncanny.
Also here's an alternate reality scenario to consider;
Kareem doesn't get a phantom call to save that title in 1988. The Pistons win with Dantley.
Magic doesn't get injured and the Pistons do not win the 1989 title.
Two things totally out of Dantley's control and no one would bat an eye about Dantley's fit.

---

It was indeed bad offensive teammates.
John Drew was a cocaine addict with negative offensive impact despite the high scoring numbers.
Darrell Griffith was just meh. He must be one of the rarest players that managed to get into 20+ ppg territory with negative OBPM, he did that in his rookie season and never broke past 1.0 OBPM mark.
And these 2 were the next highest scorers on the team.

Bad offensive teammates, thus bad spacing were the issues for those subpar rORtg results.

I think many of you should take a trip to Dantley footages on our beloved 70sFan's YouTube channel.

The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Jazz 

Post#23 » by 70sFan » Mon May 17, 2021 7:45 am

1. 1997/98 Karl Malone - I am on Karl side in Mailman vs Stockton debate, but it is indeed closer than some might think. Malone was excellent passer and strong shooter, so his scoring inefficiency isn't as huge problems as some may believe. On top of that, he was very underrated defender.

2. 1987/88 John Stockton - I decided to use the most athletic and most agressive version of John. He had very weak offensive supporting cast that year - even Malone wasn't the player he became in the 1990s. Excellent postseason run as well.

3. 1983/84 Adrian Dantley - very close choice between AD and Gobert, I decided to go with Dantley at his peak though. One of the best scorers ever, not nearly as bad on defense as some imply and led Jazz to good offensive results despite having weak roster around him. One of the most skilled scorers ever and GOAT at drawing fouls. Perfect player to watch and learn fundamentals.

4. 2016/17 Rudy Gobert - he would be probably 2nd with 2021 season available, but I have him 4th without it. One of the best defenders ever and the best one in many years. Underrated offensive player as well, despite very limited skillset.

5. 2003/04 Andrei Kirilenko - GOAT-level glue guy, one of the best defenders ever at his position, very smart offensive player as well. His off-ball movement and strong passing made him excellent fit next to offensive stars.

HM to Mark Eaton, Gordon Hayward and Deron Williams.
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Jazz 

Post#24 » by 70sFan » Mon May 17, 2021 7:51 am

Odinn21 wrote:Dantley must be one of the most disrespected players ever.

Yes, he is :banghead:

No, he did not hold the ball too long.

He didn't hold the ball longer than majority of modern offensive stars like Melo or Kawhi. He wasn't that ball-dominant, majority of his work came from off-ball game.

The amount of sh.t he gets for Zeke throwing a tantrum because the Detroit FO brought Dantley over his buddy is just uncanny.
Also here's an alternate reality scenario to consider;
Kareem doesn't get a phantom call to save that title in 1988. The Pistons win with Dantley.
Magic doesn't get injured and the Pistons do not win the 1989 title.
Two things totally out of Dantley's control and no one would bat an eye about Dantley's fit.

Indeed, Dantley played like Pistons MVP in 1988 finals. I'd add another one - Dantley had unfortunate collision at the end of game 7 of 1987 ECF. He played very well throughout the series and it's possible that Pistons would have beaten Celtics with Dantley on the floor in the 4th quarter.

So with slightly different scenario that wouldn't even include Dantley playing better, AD would have finished with 3 finals appeariances in a row with 2 rings.


I think many of you should take a trip to Dantley footages on our beloved 70sFan's YouTube channel.


Thank you :D

I really recommand everyone Dantley's plays. You can learn so much only by watching his moves.
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Jazz 

Post#25 » by HeartBreakKid » Mon May 17, 2021 7:56 am

70sFan wrote:1. 1997/98 Karl Malone - I am on Karl side in Mailman vs Stockton debate, but it is indeed closer than some might think. Malone was excellent passer and strong shooter, so his scoring inefficiency isn't as huge problems as some may believe. On top of that, he was very underrated defender.

2. 1987/88 John Stockton - I decided to use the most athletic and most agressive version of John. He had very weak offensive supporting cast that year - even Malone wasn't the player he became in the 1990s. Excellent postseason run as well.

3. 1983/84 Adrian Dantley - very close choice between AD and Gobert, I decided to go with Dantley at his peak though. One of the best scorers ever, not nearly as bad on defense as some imply and led Jazz to good offensive results despite having weak roster around him. One of the most skilled scorers ever and GOAT at drawing fouls. Perfect player to watch and learn fundamentals.

4. 2016/17 Rudy Gobert - he would be probably 2nd with 2021 season available, but I have him 4th without it. One of the best defenders ever and the best one in many years. Underrated offensive player as well, despite very limited skillset.

5. 2003/04 Andrei Kirilenko - GOAT-level glue guy, one of the best defenders ever at his position, very smart offensive player as well. His off-ball movement and strong passing made him excellent fit next to offensive stars.

HM to Mark Eaton, Gordon Hayward and Deron Williams.

His offense really fell off a rock in the post season. I don't think he was good enough at finding cracks in the defense when the game was slow or the defense was consistently good.
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Jazz 

Post#26 » by 70sFan » Mon May 17, 2021 9:51 am

HeartBreakKid wrote:
70sFan wrote:1. 1997/98 Karl Malone - I am on Karl side in Mailman vs Stockton debate, but it is indeed closer than some might think. Malone was excellent passer and strong shooter, so his scoring inefficiency isn't as huge problems as some may believe. On top of that, he was very underrated defender.

2. 1987/88 John Stockton - I decided to use the most athletic and most agressive version of John. He had very weak offensive supporting cast that year - even Malone wasn't the player he became in the 1990s. Excellent postseason run as well.

3. 1983/84 Adrian Dantley - very close choice between AD and Gobert, I decided to go with Dantley at his peak though. One of the best scorers ever, not nearly as bad on defense as some imply and led Jazz to good offensive results despite having weak roster around him. One of the most skilled scorers ever and GOAT at drawing fouls. Perfect player to watch and learn fundamentals.

4. 2016/17 Rudy Gobert - he would be probably 2nd with 2021 season available, but I have him 4th without it. One of the best defenders ever and the best one in many years. Underrated offensive player as well, despite very limited skillset.

5. 2003/04 Andrei Kirilenko - GOAT-level glue guy, one of the best defenders ever at his position, very smart offensive player as well. His off-ball movement and strong passing made him excellent fit next to offensive stars.

HM to Mark Eaton, Gordon Hayward and Deron Williams.

His offense really fell off a rock in the post season. I don't think he was good enough at finding cracks in the defense when the game was slow or the defense was consistently good.

He didn't play in postseason during his best years (2004-06).
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Jazz 

Post#27 » by HeartBreakKid » Mon May 17, 2021 10:12 am

HeartBreakKid wrote:
Dutchball97 wrote:1. Karl Malone, 1997/98 - I agree with the notion that taking Karl Malone over Stockton isn't a given. That said I do think Karl Malone's 1998 season was the best overall season between them.

2. John Stockton, 1997/97 - Stockton isn't known for a specific peak year because his prime was just so consistently high level for an absurdly long time. It's hard to go wrong with which year to pick so I went with what I view as his best play-off run.

3. Adrian Dantley, 1983/84 - Very strong regular season where he led the league in PER, WS, WS/48 and OBPM. Dantley actually held up really well in the play-offs as well. I don't quite see him on the level of Malone/Stockton but he's a clear 3rd to me.

4. Jeff Hornacek, 1995/96 - I get the reservations about him because of him being a 3rd option but we shouldn't forget that him coming to Utah made them legit title contenders either. In the regular season he wasn't much worse than Deron Williams, Gordon Hayward or Rudy Gobert. On the other hand he massively stepped up in the post-season, while the others all have more questionable post-season performances that were generally a bit worse than they were in the regular season.

5. Deron Williams, 2009/10 - This mainly came down to Williams vs Gobert. I need to see Gobert step up his game somewhat in the play-offs to make my list. It feels a bit odd to leave him off my list entirely but I don't want his stellar 2021 play to impact how I view his earlier seasons.


Gordon Hayward

22.5/5.5/3.5 with 1.9 turnovers are his RS stats

24/6/3.5 with 1.9 turnovers are his PS stats.

His TS% is .595 in the RS
His TS% is .598 in the PS.



He's actually freakishly consistent going from RS to PS, and is slightly better.

Hornacek's boost in the PS still isn't as good as Gordon's stats, at least it's not a given especially when we consider that Gordon was the #1 option on his team.



Any new thoughts on Hayward vs Hornacek?
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Jazz 

Post#28 » by 70sFan » Mon May 17, 2021 10:15 am

HeartBreakKid wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:
Dutchball97 wrote:1. Karl Malone, 1997/98 - I agree with the notion that taking Karl Malone over Stockton isn't a given. That said I do think Karl Malone's 1998 season was the best overall season between them.

2. John Stockton, 1997/97 - Stockton isn't known for a specific peak year because his prime was just so consistently high level for an absurdly long time. It's hard to go wrong with which year to pick so I went with what I view as his best play-off run.

3. Adrian Dantley, 1983/84 - Very strong regular season where he led the league in PER, WS, WS/48 and OBPM. Dantley actually held up really well in the play-offs as well. I don't quite see him on the level of Malone/Stockton but he's a clear 3rd to me.

4. Jeff Hornacek, 1995/96 - I get the reservations about him because of him being a 3rd option but we shouldn't forget that him coming to Utah made them legit title contenders either. In the regular season he wasn't much worse than Deron Williams, Gordon Hayward or Rudy Gobert. On the other hand he massively stepped up in the post-season, while the others all have more questionable post-season performances that were generally a bit worse than they were in the regular season.

5. Deron Williams, 2009/10 - This mainly came down to Williams vs Gobert. I need to see Gobert step up his game somewhat in the play-offs to make my list. It feels a bit odd to leave him off my list entirely but I don't want his stellar 2021 play to impact how I view his earlier seasons.


Gordon Hayward

22.5/5.5/3.5 with 1.9 turnovers are his RS stats

24/6/3.5 with 1.9 turnovers are his PS stats.

His TS% is .595 in the RS
His TS% is .598 in the PS.



He's actually freakishly consistent going from RS to PS, and is slightly better.

Hornacek's boost in the PS still isn't as good as Gordon's stats, at least it's not a given especially when we consider that Gordon was the #1 option on his team.



Any new thoughts on Hayward vs Hornacek?

I'd probabl take Hayward, his role was bigger and his actual level of play is at least comparable. A shame that Gordon got injured, because he was really good before the injury.

I say this as someone who likes watching Jeff far more. He was such a crafty, skilled player despite lack of athleticism.
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Jazz 

Post#29 » by Dutchball97 » Mon May 17, 2021 10:30 am

I guess I've just consistently rated the post-season higher than any other voter. When I look at 96 Hornacek he led his team in play-off WS and was 0.1 behind Malone in play-off VORP. To me that is simply very impressive. Hornacek had 3.1 WS in 644 minute (.233 WS/48), Hayward in 2017 had 1.2 WS in 411 minutes (.144 WS/48).

I do agree Hayward's regular season in 2017 was better than Hornacek's regular season in 96 but only by a bit imo. To be fair his post-season was solid, just a bit forgettable. Hayward being the main guy for that Jazz team (at least on offense) is also a valid argument of course. Hornacek probably wouldn't have performed better than Hayward in the same situation but at the same time I don't think Hayward would've been able to fit so well with other stars and play at the level Hornacek did as a 3rd option.

I'm not really trying to convince other people of Hornacek > Hayward and Kirilenko so I'll leave it at that but respect others opinions as well.
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Jazz 

Post#30 » by HeartBreakKid » Mon May 17, 2021 10:53 am

Dutchball97 wrote:
Hayward would've been able to fit so well with other stars and play at the level Hornacek did as a 3rd option.


He played with a ton of guys on the 17 Jazz (deepest team in the league if I can recall), and 3 all-stars on the 2020 Celtics. He's pretty dang good at playing with others.
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Jazz 

Post#31 » by Dutchball97 » Mon May 17, 2021 11:26 am

HeartBreakKid wrote:
Dutchball97 wrote:
Hayward would've been able to fit so well with other stars and play at the level Hornacek did as a 3rd option.


He played with a ton of guys on the 17 Jazz (deepest team in the league if I can recall), and 3 all-stars on the 2020 Celtics. He's pretty dang good at playing with others.


This sounds disingenuous tbh. Hayward had by far the highest usage% for the Jazz in 2017 and the only other real big minute guy was Gobert. I'm not sure if you view George Hill as some kind of star player or something but I see a lot of roleplayers who aren't really taking many touches away from him. Comparing that to playing alongside Malone and Stockton is honestly ridiculous.

Using the 2020 Celtics as an example for Hayward meshing well with other high usage players is almost hysterical. What part of Hayward in Boston looked impressive to you?
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Jazz 

Post#32 » by HeartBreakKid » Mon May 17, 2021 12:00 pm

Dutchball97 wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:
Dutchball97 wrote:
Hayward would've been able to fit so well with other stars and play at the level Hornacek did as a 3rd option.


He played with a ton of guys on the 17 Jazz (deepest team in the league if I can recall), and 3 all-stars on the 2020 Celtics. He's pretty dang good at playing with others.


This sounds disingenuous tbh. Hayward had by far the highest usage% for the Jazz in 2017 and the only other real big minute guy was Gobert. I'm not sure if you view George Hill as some kind of star player or something but I see a lot of roleplayers who aren't really taking many touches away from him. Comparing that to playing alongside Malone and Stockton is honestly ridiculous.

Using the 2020 Celtics as an example for Hayward meshing well with other high usage players is almost hysterical. What part of Hayward in Boston looked impressive to you?

Usage % doesn't mean playing with the ball in your hand. Hayward is not a point forward or a ball hogger. And yes, not many players on the Jazz had mega large minutes because they were a super deep team, instead it was distributed among a ton of players.




You pretty much are confusing 2019 Hayward with 2020 Hayward, which is common to say the least.

Hayward put up 17.5/6/4 on 60 TS% with less than 2 turnovers. If that is not being able to work with stars or "hysterical" then Hornacek must have had a very funny career. He's playing with Walker, Brown, Smart and Tatum - they're not 3 and D guys.

Tatum: 23/7/3
Walker: 20.5/4/5
Brown: 20/6/2
Smart: 13/4/5

He was the best passer and best player overall on the team, while everyone else was still getting their numbers - seems like a guy who can mesh well with others to me. He's playing with three 20+ PPG scorers and two point guards, and still putting up 17.5/4 on great efficiency. How many players have done that in recent years?

I really think you just forgot about Hayward's career because he is not a flashy player. You even said he was worse in the post season in Utah when he very clearly was not - if you did not forget then you are being the disingenuous one.

Gordon Hayward is anything but a high usage player. He was not even a high usage player when he played for Butler(relative to how much more talented he was than his teammates). His entire gimmick is he plays team basketball. How would you describe his playing style?
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Jazz 

Post#33 » by Dutchball97 » Mon May 17, 2021 12:28 pm

HeartBreakKid wrote:
Dutchball97 wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:
He played with a ton of guys on the 17 Jazz (deepest team in the league if I can recall), and 3 all-stars on the 2020 Celtics. He's pretty dang good at playing with others.


This sounds disingenuous tbh. Hayward had by far the highest usage% for the Jazz in 2017 and the only other real big minute guy was Gobert. I'm not sure if you view George Hill as some kind of star player or something but I see a lot of roleplayers who aren't really taking many touches away from him. Comparing that to playing alongside Malone and Stockton is honestly ridiculous.

Using the 2020 Celtics as an example for Hayward meshing well with other high usage players is almost hysterical. What part of Hayward in Boston looked impressive to you?

Usage % doesn't mean playing with the ball in your hand. Hayward is not a point forward or a ball hogger. And yes, not many players on the Jazz had mega large minutes because they were a super deep team, instead it was distributed among a ton of players.




You pretty much are confusing 2019 Hayward with 2020 Hayward, which is common to say the least.

Hayward put up 17.5/6/4 on 60 TS% with less than 2 turnovers. If that is not being able to work with stars or "hysterical" then Hornacek must have had a very funny career. He's playing with Walker, Brown, Smart and Tatum - they're not 3 and D guys. He was the best passer and best player overall on the team, while everyone else was still getting their numbers - seems like a guy who can mesh well with others to me.

I really think you just forgot about Hayward's career because he is not a flashy player. You even said he was worse in the post season in Utah when he very clearly was not - if you did not forget then you are being the disingenuous one.

Gordon Hayward is anything but a high usage player. He was not even a high usage player when he played for Butler(relative to how much more talented he was than his teammates). His entire gimmick is he plays team basketball. How would you describe his playing style?


So in 3 years of Boston he has exactly one season with a statline you aren't afraid of posting and I know you're not even going to touch his 10.8/4/2.8 on .504 TS% in the play-offs either. I'm not exactly impressed with his 18.7 PER, .158 WS/48 and 2.7 BPM in the regular season to begin with as that is clearly worse than 2017 Hayward or multiple Hornacek seasons for that matter and then that drops to 11 PER, .076 WS/48 and -0.1 BPM in the post-season. If you genuinely think Hayward was the best player on the Celtics that season I've got to question your fandom as well. Do you even like the players currently on your team?

So once again you just put raw numbers and TS% but don't account for anything else when claiming Hayward stepped his game up in the 2017 post-season. He has slightly higher BPM, slightly lower PER and significantly worse WS/48. At best you can say he stayed around the same level as the regular season. 17 Hayward vs 10 Deron Williams is close but I don't see either as having better seasons than Hornacek in 96.

And Hayward is not a high usage player despite having by far the highest USG% on the 17 Jazz? Make sense please. Also if you think anyone who doesn't agree with you on Hayward being the best thing since sliced bread is somehow forgetting him you're off the deep end.
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Jazz 

Post#34 » by LA Bird » Mon May 17, 2021 1:43 pm

I don't see the point of using the supporting cast excuse for Dantley when the Jazz weren't playing all that much better with him anyway. It's not like they were 40 wins with him and only 10 wins without him. Dantley's combination of scoring volume and efficiency is indeed crazy but his overall impact is a little questionable.

Some WOWY stats:
80~86 Jazz were at 34.7 win pace with Dantley, 29.0 win pace in 113 games without him.
04~06 Jazz were at 41.4 win pace with Kirilenko, 19.8 win pace in 58 games without him.
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Jazz 

Post#35 » by Odinn21 » Mon May 17, 2021 4:13 pm

LA Bird wrote:I don't see the point of using the supporting cast excuse for Dantley when the Jazz weren't playing all that much better with him anyway. It's not like they were 40 wins with him and only 10 wins without him. Dantley's combination of scoring volume and efficiency is indeed crazy but his overall impact is a little questionable.

Some WOWY stats:
80~86 Jazz were at 34.7 win pace with Dantley, 29.0 win pace in 113 games without him.
04~06 Jazz were at 41.4 win pace with Kirilenko, 19.8 win pace in 58 games without him.

WOWY must be one of the most controversial approach to look at impact. Also open to different interpretations. Kirilenko's missed games overlapped with good chunk of other main rotation players missing games, more so than what Dantley got, and he's more impactful because of it?

It's an approach so controversial for me that I do not even want to state that Dantley outscales Kirilenko in ElGee's WOWYR numbers with +4.3 to +2.1 for Dantley's case. If you have an explanation for either interpretations, I'm all ears.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Jazz 

Post#36 » by Colbinii » Mon May 17, 2021 4:18 pm

Odinn21 wrote:
LA Bird wrote:I don't see the point of using the supporting cast excuse for Dantley when the Jazz weren't playing all that much better with him anyway. It's not like they were 40 wins with him and only 10 wins without him. Dantley's combination of scoring volume and efficiency is indeed crazy but his overall impact is a little questionable.

Some WOWY stats:
80~86 Jazz were at 34.7 win pace with Dantley, 29.0 win pace in 113 games without him.
04~06 Jazz were at 41.4 win pace with Kirilenko, 19.8 win pace in 58 games without him.

WOWY must be one of the most controversial approach to look at impact. Also open to different interpretations. Kirilenko's missed games overlapped with good chunk of other main rotation players missing games, more so than what Dantley got, and he's more impactful because of it?


I think the burden of proof is for you to disprove the numbers LA Bird provided by supplying examples in support of Dantley here.

It doesn't make sense to me to comment on someone else's data supporting their position for you to respond with "There were examples disproving this, so now you La Bird, go find them.

It's an approach so controversial for me that I do not even want to state that Dantley outscales Kirilenko in ElGee's WOWYR numbers with +4.3 to +2.1 for Dantley's case. If you have an explanation for either interpretations, I'm all ears.


How big are you on ElGee and his numbers? I thought you weren't big on some of his stuff.
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Jazz 

Post#37 » by Odinn21 » Mon May 17, 2021 4:31 pm

Colbinii wrote:
Odinn21 wrote:
LA Bird wrote:I don't see the point of using the supporting cast excuse for Dantley when the Jazz weren't playing all that much better with him anyway. It's not like they were 40 wins with him and only 10 wins without him. Dantley's combination of scoring volume and efficiency is indeed crazy but his overall impact is a little questionable.

Some WOWY stats:
80~86 Jazz were at 34.7 win pace with Dantley, 29.0 win pace in 113 games without him.
04~06 Jazz were at 41.4 win pace with Kirilenko, 19.8 win pace in 58 games without him.

WOWY must be one of the most controversial approach to look at impact. Also open to different interpretations. Kirilenko's missed games overlapped with good chunk of other main rotation players missing games, more so than what Dantley got, and he's more impactful because of it?


I think the burden of proof is for you to disprove the numbers LA Bird provided by supplying examples in support of Dantley here.

It doesn't make sense to me to comment on someone else's data supporting their position for you to respond with "There were examples disproving this, so now you La Bird, go find them.

Go find them? Just take a look at the most used 5 men line-ups on BBRef pages and realize that the most used lineups were missing more than 1 of their main rotation players. The most used 5 men line up in 2004-05 barely cracked 150 minutes mark with 158 due to so many players being out of commission consistently. How much do you think Kirilenko's individual WOWY mean in such setup like it was the isolated incident?

Colbinii wrote:
It's an approach so controversial for me that I do not even want to state that Dantley outscales Kirilenko in ElGee's WOWYR numbers with +4.3 to +2.1 for Dantley's case. If you have an explanation for either interpretations, I'm all ears.


How big are you on ElGee and his numbers? I thought you weren't big on some of his stuff.

No, I'm not big on any of WOWY type of numbers. They are like raw on/off numbers which does not mean much without adjusting for variable stuff. With individual WOWY, you must be sure that the only changing element is the player at hand is missing.
Here's an example of somewhat good WOWY usage (it'll be Timmy since I know about him the most);
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2004.html#all_totals
The other main rotation players played over 2000 minutes, and there was also Horry who missed only 1 game. That's 6 of main rotation players other than Duncan playing enough to isolate Duncan's WOWY worth. There's so little overlap between missed games.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2004/lineups/
That's a proper lineup distribution. The main rotation had Duncan and the team had main rotation for longer than 800 minutes. Again, good environment to isolate.
After all these, there's some merit to saying the Spurs went 51-18 with Duncan and 6-7 without him.

But look at these;
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/UTA/2005/lineups/
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/UTA/2006/lineups/
Do you think these are good enough to build such an opinion on?

I did not mention ElGee's number as a case for Dantley. I just wanted to know if he, as someone who sees value in WOWY, has an explanation because it was not in line with his premise. That's all.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Jazz 

Post#38 » by sansterre » Mon May 17, 2021 4:42 pm

Dutchball97 wrote: and significantly worse WS/48

Be super careful about using WS48 as a resiliency test. Win Shares are ultimately driven by wins, and wins are simply harder to get in the postseason for the same level of play. You would *expect* WS/48 to drop in the playoffs because every team's win percentage in the playoffs drops from the regular season (excepting those rare teams to take a big jump in performance in the postseason - those happen but they're freaking rare).

Consider the Top 18 Players in the current Top 100 players project and their postseason resilient WS/48 numbers:

1. LeBron: +13
2. Jordan: +5
3. Kareem: -35
4. Russell: -15
5. Duncan: -15
6. Wilt: -48
7. Magic: -17
8. Shaq: -24
9. Hakeem: +12
10. Bird: -30
11. Garnett: -33
12. Bryant: -13
13. West: -10
14. Oscar: -29
15. Dirk: -5
16. Karl Malone: -65
17. Robinson: -51
18. Erving: -16

Average drop: -20.9

When the 18 greatest players of all-time *average* a 21 point drop going into the playoffs, you've got to figure that punishing somebody for a drop is not reasonable.

And yeah, the three players with positive numbers are three players noted for stepping their game up in the playoffs (LeBron, Jordan and Hakeem) and the players with the worst postseason reputations are at the bottom (Wilt, Malone and Robinson). I'm not saying that there's nothing here. I'm just saying that a WS/48 drop doesn't indicate a lack of resilience (necessarily). Drops are normal, even for great players (notice that Russell drops by less than average, but by more than you'd guess).

I know that WS/48 was not the only one thing you referenced; I'm not really trying to call you out specifically. This was just something I noticed while working in my project and thought it worth referencing.

And obligatory disclaimer: please don't take the above numbers for anything besides the principal they're trying to illustrate. One could use the above numbers to argue that Kareem was a weak playoff performer, but they're also tanked by playing on a lot of weak teams post-Milwaukee pre-Magic and him getting mountains of postseason minutes *after* his prime and a lot fewer during his prime (3500 in the 70s, 5300 in the 80s).
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Jazz 

Post#39 » by Owly » Mon May 17, 2021 5:37 pm

Odinn21 wrote:Dantley must be one of the most disrespected players ever.

No, he did not hold the ball too long.

The amount of sh.t he gets for Zeke throwing a tantrum because the Detroit FO brought Dantley over his buddy is just uncanny.
Also here's an alternate reality scenario to consider;
Kareem doesn't get a phantom call to save that title in 1988. The Pistons win with Dantley.
Magic doesn't get injured and the Pistons do not win the 1989 title.
Two things totally out of Dantley's control and no one would bat an eye about Dantley's fit.

---

It was indeed bad offensive teammates.
John Drew was a cocaine addict with negative offensive impact despite the high scoring numbers.
Darrell Griffith was just meh. He must be one of the rarest players that managed to get into 20+ ppg territory with negative OBPM, he did that in his rookie season and never broke past 1.0 OBPM mark.
And these 2 were the next highest scorers on the team.

Bad offensive teammates, thus bad spacing were the issues for those subpar rORtg results.

I think many of you should take a trip to Dantley footages on our beloved 70sFan's YouTube channel.


How confident are you Drew was negative? And if that is the case, shouldn't that inflate Dantley's WoWY numbers around this time (as the backup SF getting starts in '83 and to a lesser extent '85) which are relatively pedestrian (whereas his overall prime numbers are solid if unexceptional).
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Jazz 

Post#40 » by Odinn21 » Mon May 17, 2021 5:59 pm

Owly wrote:How confident are you Drew was negative? And if that is the case, shouldn't that inflate Dantley's WoWY numbers around this time (as the backup SF getting starts in '83 and to a lesser extent '85) which are relatively pedestrian (whereas his overall prime numbers are solid if unexceptional).

Not 100% confident about Drew but quite confident still. In the games I had, I took him as Antoine Walker or Shareef Abdul-Rahim breed, a player which should not be trying to score that much, despite the capability being there.
As for WOWY, that goes back to my reservation about the concept. Drew also missed significant number of games in 1983 and 1985. The team structure was not consistent enough to draw healthy conclusions about Dantley's worth with WOWY approach. With Drew being a negative impact player, we could assume Dantley's WOWY was relatively hurt by Drew's absence but we do not have any type of lineup info or +/- data to go deeper. So, it'd be meaningless.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.

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