[Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Magic

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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Magic 

Post#21 » by Djoker » Wed May 26, 2021 6:18 am

sansterre wrote:
Djoker wrote:5. 2004-2005 Grant Hill

His only mostly healthy season on the Magic. Despite coming off very serious injuries he was still a fantastic all-around player. I don't think other possible candidates like Horace Grant, Rashard Lewis and Nikola Vucevic were as good as Grant.

To be clear, you're talking about a season where he missed 15 games, put up 6.6 Win Shares, 2.7 VORP, +1.6 AUPM, took less than 25% of his team's shots and made them at only +3.6%, for a Pts/75 of 21.4 . . .

I know the pickings for the #5 spot are slim for the Magic, but I don't know if they're that slim.


I'm aware of that but still think he was better than Horace Grant, Vucevic and the Magic version of Rashard Lewis.
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Magic 

Post#22 » by Odinn21 » Wed May 26, 2021 6:39 am

Djoker wrote:
sansterre wrote:
Djoker wrote:5. 2004-2005 Grant Hill

His only mostly healthy season on the Magic. Despite coming off very serious injuries he was still a fantastic all-around player. I don't think other possible candidates like Horace Grant, Rashard Lewis and Nikola Vucevic were as good as Grant.

To be clear, you're talking about a season where he missed 15 games, put up 6.6 Win Shares, 2.7 VORP, +1.6 AUPM, took less than 25% of his team's shots and made them at only +3.6%, for a Pts/75 of 21.4 . . .

I know the pickings for the #5 spot are slim for the Magic, but I don't know if they're that slim.


I'm aware of that but still think he was better than Horace Grant, Vucevic and the Magic version of Rashard Lewis.

My reservation about Hill pick the fact that he did not comeback as the same player. He was quite limited, there was a certain drop in his quality, he did not have the impact.
For instance his performance in 1995 is one of the reasons why Horace Grant is Horace Grant. He earned it with his performance. The same goes for Rashard Lewis. It was not the same situation with Grant Hill.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Magic 

Post#23 » by Jaivl » Wed May 26, 2021 9:36 am

Jaivl wrote:Like last time, I'm gonna leave my tentative votes and explain later or tomorrow.

1) 1995 Shaquille O'Neal (+5.75)
2) 2003 Tracy McGrady (+5.00)
3) 2011 Dwight Howard (+4.50)
4) 1996 Penny Hardaway (+4.25)
5) 1995 Horace Grant (+2.50)


Don't think McGrady is as much of an outlier as it's painted. His scoring is definitely an outlier compared to 2002, stronger efficiency on bigger volume, but, like Kawhi Leonard 15 years later, that increased load is balanced with a decreased performance on defense (Tracy was never the same caliber of defender, but he started his career as a defensive role player and was always a strong wing defender). The comparison to Kawhi also holds in their overall impacts, about the same for me, and stronger than #3.

Howard is obviously not an offensive engine. Orlando's offenses during his three-year peak correlate more with their roleplayers' performance than with Howard's own evolution. 2010 is by far the best offense of the bunch, and that's the year Howard scores and o-rebounds less, but also the only year that Lewis, Carter, Nelson and Redick are all fully healthy. Excellent finisher that demands a decent amount of attention and adequate enough passer as to not be a black hole, but not proficient enough to really exploit said attention. Not close to the rest of the top 4 in that side of the ball.

Not close to the rest of the top 4 in defense, obviously. Always a monster defensive rebounder (both in individual numbers and more importantly, impact on the team), great explosive rim protector with decent range. But in my eyes, a clear step below the very greats of his era (Duncan, KG, Wallace), similar to Gobert in that end.

Clearly better on that end than Shaq, whose 1995 season would turn out to be his strongest healthy year until 2000. Still, Shaq is not yet his fat and lazy version. Explosiveness and size let him have a good chunk of impact near the rim. He does not lean on Grant either, as he had already shown he could sustain a decent defense without him or much perimeter help in 1993 and 1994. Offensively, of course, a wrecking ball. The passing Howard lacked he had in spades (we would have to travel to 1993 to see a similarly limited version), so he can take full advantage of his much, much superior gravity. Of course, also a much better scorer, with the sought-after combo of high volume, high efficiency (even accounting for his free throws) and high resiliency (as long as he could safely receive the ball). The difference on defense is big, but the difference on offense is much bigger.

1996 Penny is a no-brainer at #4. I don't know. Grant... is the best of the rest, I guess? Maybe Vucevic can get a mention.
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Magic 

Post#24 » by Doctor MJ » Wed May 26, 2021 2:57 pm

1. '94-95 Shaquille O'Neal

2. '09-10 Dwight Howard

3. '95-96 Penny Hardaway

4. '02-03 Tracy McGrady

5. '95-96 Horace Grant

With +/- data I'm tempted to elevate penny over Shaq, but I can't quite make myself do it. I'm still most comfortable thinking about the Magic's peaks in terms of the two superstar big men.

5th spot was between Grant and Lewis, and I'll say I think both are worthy.

On TMac:

I actually totally get if people have him superhigh here. A one year peak comparison is what TMac's career is made for.

My problem is that I'm not really sold on TMac leading a truly great team. People tend to look at his assist totals and see a great playmaker, but I don't see signs in his career that he really had a great gauge of when to shoot and when to pass. Efficiency-wise it looks like it all came together for him in '02-03, but aside from the fact that I think this happened without him actually figuring anything out, there's also the matter that you're talking about an efficiency that would be weak by later eras. This is another way of saying that I think TMac was getting the efficiency he was getting, and there's not much reason to think that it would magically skyrocket in a different era. Might it? Sure, but I struggle with giving TMac the benefit of the doubt having watched the years after '02-03 as the Rockets again and again failed to scale to contender status when healthy only to advance in the playoffs when their "2 superstar" team became definitively a zero superstar team.

I've just got more faith in Penny's ability to work with other great talent, to say nothing of Grant or Lewis.
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Magic 

Post#25 » by Odinn21 » Wed May 26, 2021 3:00 pm

The Magic results;

Code: Select all

1. 7-1-1-2-0 / 88 points / 0.800 share / '95 Shaquille O'Neal
2. 4-4-2-1-0 / 81 points / 0.736 share / '03 Tracy McGrady
3. 0-6-5-0-0 / 67 points / 0.609 share / '11 Dwight Howard
4. 0-0-3-8-0 / 39 points / 0.355 share / '96 Anfernee Hardaway
5. 0-0-0-0-6 /  6 points / 0.055 share / '95 Horace Grant

6. 0-0-0-0-4 /  3 points / 0.027 share / '09 Rashard Lewis
7. 0-0-0-0-1 /  1 points / 0.009 share / '99 Darrell Armstrong
8. 0-0-0-0-1 /  1 points / 0.009 share / '05 Grant Hill


Results on Google Sheet
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Magic 

Post#26 » by Odinn21 » Wed May 26, 2021 3:03 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:1. '94-95 Shaquille O'Neal

2. '09-10 Dwight Howard

3. '95-96 Penny Hardaway

4. '02-03 Tracy McGrady

5. '95-96 Horace Grant

With +/- data I'm tempted to elevate penny over Shaq, but I can't quite make myself do it. I'm still most comfortable thinking about the Magic's peaks in terms of the two superstar big men.

5th spot was between Grant and Lewis, and I'll say I think both are worthy.

You had to do it at the last minute, didn't you. :lol:

It was a tie between Shaq and T-Mac until your vote, and Shaq had the #1 place with tiebreaker. It was the exact situation in the Lakers thread. I had a post waiting to rant about it. Then you came in, broke the tie and also take a dump on McGrady. :lol:
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Magic 

Post#27 » by Doctor MJ » Wed May 26, 2021 3:06 pm

Odinn21 wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:1. '94-95 Shaquille O'Neal

2. '09-10 Dwight Howard

3. '95-96 Penny Hardaway

4. '02-03 Tracy McGrady

5. '95-96 Horace Grant

With +/- data I'm tempted to elevate penny over Shaq, but I can't quite make myself do it. I'm still most comfortable thinking about the Magic's peaks in terms of the two superstar big men.

5th spot was between Grant and Lewis, and I'll say I think both are worthy.

You had to do it at the last minute, didn't you. :lol:

It was a tie between Shaq and T-Mac until your vote, and Shaq had the #1 place with tiebreaker. It was the exact situation in the Lakers thread. I had a post waiting to rant about it. Then you came in, broke the tie and also take a dump on McGrady. :lol:


Sorry, been a bit busy. :oops:
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Magic 

Post#28 » by Owly » Wed May 26, 2021 3:17 pm

Odinn21 wrote:The Magic results;

Code: Select all

1. 7-1-1-2-0 / 88 points / 0.736 share / '95 Shaquille O'Neal
2. 4-4-2-1-0 / 81 points / 0.736 share / '03 Tracy McGrady
3. 0-6-5-0-0 / 60 points / 0.609 share / '11 Dwight Howard
4. 0-0-3-8-0 / 34 points / 0.355 share / '96 Anfernee Hardaway
5. 0-0-0-0-6 /  5 points / 0.055 share / '95 Horace Grant

6. 0-0-0-0-4 /  4 points / 0.036 share / '09 Rashard Lewis
7. 0-0-0-0-1 /  1 points / 0.009 share / '05 Grant Hill


Results on Google Sheet

Doesn't alter the top 5, or order at all but
Dr Positivity wrote:
Dr Positivity wrote:1. Shaquille O'Neal 1995 - I think he's still the most dominant talent here. Good in finals considering who he was going against.

2. Tracy McGrady 2003 - One of the best one man band seasons of all time.

3. Dwight Howard 2009 - His game is more flawed than it looks on paper. But you can't really deny making the finals and beating Lebron with mostly a cast of shooters.

4. Penny Hardaway 1996 - Excellent offensive guard.

This is where it gets hard since the best individual statistical player is Vucevic but he looks exposed.

5. Rashard Lewis 2009 - Great stretch 4 as he could defend just well enough to make it work, SVG's decision to put him there was low key important to game's evolution. Hedo probably peaked higher on offense with the Magic but has poor defensive numbers. I definitely prefer Lewis offense to Grant although the latter is better on D.


Good call by Owly, I'm changing my #5 pick to 99 Darrell Armstrong putting up a .205 WS/48 6.7 BPM on a team that had no business tying for the best record in the conference

Armstrong got an altered 5th place vote.


Also your table doesn't reflect the final votes correctly in the share votes (though I think the google doc does).
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Magic 

Post#29 » by Odinn21 » Wed May 26, 2021 3:24 pm

Owly wrote:Armstrong got an altered 5th place vote.

Also your table doesn't reflect the final votes correctly in the share votes (though I think the google doc does).

Missed that Armstrong change. Thanks.
I had the tally correct bar Armstrong on Google Sheet but missed some details on text format.
Updated the results post. Cheers.
The issue with per75 numbers;
36pts on 27 fga/9 fta in 36 mins, does this mean he'd keep up the efficiency to get 48pts on 36fga/12fta in 48 mins?
The answer; NO. He's human, not a linearly working machine.
Per75 is efficiency rate, not actual production.
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Magic 

Post#30 » by LA Bird » Thu May 27, 2021 6:24 am

It wouldn't change the result but this is what my votes would have been if I had voted in time:

1. 2003 Tracy McGrady
Absurd outlier season in a tough defensive era while leading his team in points, rebounds, assists and blocks. +13 on/off too. Disappointing end to the playoffs but can't really expect much when his only double digit scoring teammate was Drew Gooden.

2. 2011 Dwight Howard
3. 1995 Shaquille O'Neal
4. 1996 Penny Hardaway

Shaq is Shaq but if we're only looking at his Orlando seasons, Howard's peak is more impressive to me. Rashard and Turkoglu were good in 2009 but they had fallen off badly by 2011. Jason Richardson was Howard's highest scoring teammate at that point - imagine if Shaq didn't have Penny and his second option was Nick Anderson. Howard was a far better defender and even if his scoring was not close to Shaq's, 24 points per 75 on +7.5 TS% is still pretty good. Penny was close to Shaq as 1A/1B and proved himself as a top tier superstar with Shaq out a large chunk of the 96 season.

5. 2009 Rashard Lewis?
His best season before being busted for steroids. Grant would be better on most teams in general but Lewis's shooting was very valuable for that 09 team.
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Re: [Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Magic 

Post#31 » by SHAQ32 » Wed Jun 16, 2021 10:25 pm

1. The SHAQ
2. T-Mac
3. Penny
4. Dwight
5. Nick Anderson

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