[Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Mavericks

[Texas Chuck]

Again, it depends on how you measure it. The Mavericks were 2.8 Ortg ahead of the 2nd team in 2020. The Mavericks were 1.8 Ortg ahead of the 2nd team in 2004.

It was quite impressive what Luka was able to do without anyone close to an all-star on his team. Dirk played next to arguably the greatest offensive player in NBA History.

2004 is just a bizarre offensive season for Dallas. At no time in watching that in real-time did it feel like a GOAT offense. The roster was so flawed and they were sacrificing so much defense because the owner wanted to play fantasy basketball that year despite the 03 team coming really close to a championship. Even after losing Dirk they were up 15 in the 4th of game 6 with Dirk returning for game 7. Spurs still a favorite but far from overwhelming.

And Nash wasn't really the driving force of the 04 offense like he had been in previous years and would go on to be with the Suns. Nellie was still determined to play through a point forward and thought he had that guy in Antoine Walker. Then Nash got hurt near the end of the regular season which led to the rise of undrafted rookie Marquis Daniels who suddenly was playing huge minutes in the playoffs and dominating the ball a lot.

Obviously that roster had overwhelming amounts of offensive talent and an offensive coach, but it was all fools gold and it was obvious all year it was fools gold. The Kings making short work of them was not remotely surprising.

[Colbinii]

Again, it depends on how you measure it. The Mavericks were 2.8 Ortg ahead of the 2nd team in 2020. The Mavericks were 1.8 Ortg ahead of the 2nd team in 2004.

It was quite impressive what Luka was able to do without anyone close to an all-star on his team. Dirk played next to arguably the greatest offensive player in NBA History.

2004 is just a bizarre offensive season for Dallas. At no time in watching that in real-time did it feel like a GOAT offense. The roster was so flawed and they were sacrificing so much defense because the owner wanted to play fantasy basketball that year despite the 03 team coming really close to a championship. Even after losing Dirk they were up 15 in the 4th of game 6 with Dirk returning for game 7. Spurs still a favorite but far from overwhelming.

And Nash wasn't really the driving force of the 04 offense like he had been in previous years and would go on to be with the Suns. Nellie was still determined to play through a point forward and thought he had that guy in Antoine Walker. Then Nash got hurt near the end of the regular season which led to the rise of undrafted rookie Marquis Daniels who suddenly was playing huge minutes in the playoffs and dominating the ball a lot.

Obviously that roster had overwhelming amounts of offensive talent and an offensive coach, but it was all fools gold and it was obvious all year it was fools gold. The Kings making short work of them was not remotely surprising.

Yeah it was definitely a fools gold season which was unfortunate when you had stars and Dirk Nowitzki in his prime. The team played at a blistering pace and had 4 really good offensive players (Nash, Dirk, Finley and Jamison) along with Marquis Daniels off the bench. A super-talented team but all on the offensive side of the ball.

I know OBPM isn't perfect but the Mavericks in 2004 had 4 players who had a higher OBPM than the second best OBPM in 2020.

[Clyde Frazier]

Not sure which Dirk year to pick, but he has 3 or 4 better than Luka's best still. Probably would take 2007 which I know will be unpopular because of the playoffs, but winning 67 games with that head coach and that supporting cast is still one of the most ridiculous carry jobs in NBA history.

1. 2007 Dirk
2. 2021 Luka

numbers are slightly less impressive than last year, but he's clearly a better player this year.

3. 2003 Nash

like everyone else has said this is by default. Simply no other options to consider.

4. 84 Aquirre

I hear the arguments for Ro or Harper from this Mavericks era, but he was unquestionably the driving force of these teams imo

5. 2007 Jason Terry

Probably a controversial choice, but nobody really stands out so wanted to get JET a bone. Roy Tarpley should be 3rd on this list and frankly he might have already been the best player on the team that took the Lakers to 7 in 88. Kidd didn't have his best years here and all the credit to the world to Fin for playing every minute and trying to do everything until Dirk and Nash were ready to ascend, but just not quite a good enough player in the end.

What separates 2007 Terry from Finley to you?

[HeartBreakKid]

Terry over Kidd is hard for me to accept. Kind of goes against everything I would think in regards to "is basketball just about who is the best scorer"

[homecourtloss]

1. 2011 Dirk —less physically explosive than 2006 Dirk, but a better, more polished offensive game. Not the greatest Finals but a huge impact season (both regular and postseasons)

2. 2020 Doncic —seems right and nobody is really good enough to warrant a spot of him,

3. 2003 Nash — great offense displaying his potential.

4. 2009 Kidd — great impact metric numbers (RAPM) and solid production

5. 2011 Chandler — strong impact metrics point to him being critical in the Mavs’ run

[HeartBreakKid]

1. 2011 Dirk —less physically explosive than 2006 Dirk, but a better, more polished offensive game. Not the greatest Finals but a huge impact season (both regular and postseasons)

2. 2020 Doncic —seems right and nobody is really good enough to warrant a spot of him,

3. 2003 Nash — great offense displaying his potential.

4. 2009 Kidd — great impact metric numbers (RAPM) and solid production

5. 2011 Chandler — strong impact metrics point to him being critical in the Mavs’ run

I'm thinking this is going to be my list in pretty much the exact order.

I'm not sure if I'm buying any of those 80s Mavs guys or the remaining 00 casts. They don't really seem like their skill sets are that useful for winning games - or rather their skill sets are but they're not good enough at "their craft" for it to matter.

Blackman might be the exception.

[Dr Positivity]

1. 2011 Dirk —less physically explosive than 2006 Dirk, but a better, more polished offensive game. Not the greatest Finals but a huge impact season (both regular and postseasons)

2. 2020 Doncic —seems right and nobody is really good enough to warrant a spot of him,

3. 2003 Nash — great offense displaying his potential.

4. 2009 Kidd — great impact metric numbers (RAPM) and solid production

5. 2011 Chandler — strong impact metrics point to him being critical in the Mavs’ run

I'm thinking this is going to be my list in pretty much the exact order.

I'm not sure if I'm buying any of those 80s Mavs guys or the remaining 00 casts. They don't really seem like their skill sets are that useful for winning games - or rather their skill sets are but they're not good enough at "their craft" for it to matter.

Blackman might be the exception.

What about Derek Harper? All signs are was one of the better PG defenders, solid 18-20 pt scorer who shot 3s by the early 90s, solid passing game.

[HeartBreakKid]

1. 2011 Dirk —less physically explosive than 2006 Dirk, but a better, more polished offensive game. Not the greatest Finals but a huge impact season (both regular and postseasons)

2. 2020 Doncic —seems right and nobody is really good enough to warrant a spot of him,

3. 2003 Nash — great offense displaying his potential.

4. 2009 Kidd — great impact metric numbers (RAPM) and solid production

5. 2011 Chandler — strong impact metrics point to him being critical in the Mavs’ run

I'm thinking this is going to be my list in pretty much the exact order.

I'm not sure if I'm buying any of those 80s Mavs guys or the remaining 00 casts. They don't really seem like their skill sets are that useful for winning games - or rather their skill sets are but they're not good enough at "their craft" for it to matter.

Blackman might be the exception.

What about Derek Harper? All signs are was one of the better PG defenders, solid 18-20 pt scorer who shot 3s by the early 90s, solid passing game.

Not really sure if he is better than Kidd. Kidd is obviously not a scorer, but his passing game and defense is probably on another level, hard for boxscore stats to properly capture how good Kidd is.

Also, the we odn't have much playoff data on how well Harper can score 17-20. In his 1988 season his volume and efficiency aren't good.

[Odinn21]

5. 2007 Jason Terry

What separates 2007 Terry from Finley to you?

Terry over Kidd is hard for me to accept. Kind of goes against everything I would think in regards to "is basketball just about who is the best scorer"

I think there's a bit too much scepticism around Terry.

I know that Kidd ranks quite high in colts18 compilation of RAPM numbers. He's 9th in 2009 which is the top 2%. Recently I got my hands on Jeremias Engelmann's PI-RAPM numbers until 2018-19 season, recorded by Jacob Goldstein. His numbers include postseason too btw.
The document on Google Sheets
(Just create a copy for yourself to browse through seasons with filters)

And here's how Terry, Kidd and Chandler rank;

2005 Terry; top 12%
2006 Terry; top 11%
2007 Terry; top 4%
2008 Terry; top 5%
2009 Terry; top 14%
2010 Terry; top 23%
2011 Terry; top 19%

2009 Kidd; top 8%
2010 Kidd; top 16%
2011 Kidd; top 11%

2011 Chandler; top 7%

With Terry having 2 of 4 seasons in top 10%, and both of them being top 5% should make us trust him more than Kidd and Chandler if the reservation is him being a volume scorer and volume scoring not brining good enough impact.

[Texas Chuck]

Terry over Kidd is hard for me to accept. Kind of goes against everything I would think in regards to "is basketball just about who is the best scorer"

Me too. As you probably know I'm a huge Kidd guy including both stints in Dallas. But Terry is a really good PNR guard. He never was a huge volume guy, but was super dependable in the regular season. Playoffs could be a bit of an adventure.

And frankly he's probably not the "right" answer. It probably is 09 Kidd for that last spot.

[LA Bird]

Recently I got my hands on Jeremias Engelmann's PI-RAPM numbers until 2018-19 season, recorded by Jacob Goldstein. His numbers include postseason too btw.
The document on Google Sheets
(Just create a copy for yourself to browse through seasons with filters)

Source for this spreadsheet? Because I recognize some of these numbers from other places:

97 = NPI RAPM from ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt
98-00 = PI RAPM from ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt
01 = (NPI?) RAPM from Engelmann in 2012
02-15 = PI RAPM from Engelmann in 2015
16-19 = ???

The scale for the 2018 numbers also doesn't seem right. How is +4.27 first in the league? Just in the previous year, there were 12 players with a higher mark than that.

[Odinn21]

Recently I got my hands on Jeremias Engelmann's PI-RAPM numbers until 2018-19 season, recorded by Jacob Goldstein. His numbers include postseason too btw.
The document on Google Sheets
(Just create a copy for yourself to browse through seasons with filters)

Source for this spreadsheet? Because I recognize some of these numbers from other places:

97 = NPI RAPM from ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt
98-00 = PI RAPM from ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt
01 = (NPI?) RAPM from Engelmann in 2012
02-15 = PI RAPM from Engelmann in 2015
16-19 = ???

The scale for the 2018 numbers also doesn't seem right. How is +4.27 first in the league? Just in the previous year, there were 12 players with a higher mark than that.

I saw people talking about those numbers on ElGee's Discord channel, asked where they get the numbers from. That's how I got that spreadsheet. If you open up the spreadsheet and go back to https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/ , you'd see that it's owned by Jacob Goldstein. I asked about it too and according to the responses I got, Goldstein recorded those numbers getting from JE himself.

[LA Bird]

Recently I got my hands on Jeremias Engelmann's PI-RAPM numbers until 2018-19 season, recorded by Jacob Goldstein. His numbers include postseason too btw.
The document on Google Sheets
(Just create a copy for yourself to browse through seasons with filters)

Source for this spreadsheet? Because I recognize some of these numbers from other places:

97 = NPI RAPM from ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt
98-00 = PI RAPM from ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt
01 = (NPI?) RAPM from Engelmann in 2012
02-15 = PI RAPM from Engelmann in 2015
16-19 = ???

The scale for the 2018 numbers also doesn't seem right. How is +4.27 first in the league? Just in the previous year, there were 12 players with a higher mark than that.

I saw people talking about those numbers on ElGee's Discord channel, asked where they get the numbers from. That's how I got that spreadsheet. If you open up the spreadsheet and go back to https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/ , you'd see that it's owned by Jacob Goldstein. I asked about it too and according to the responses I got, Goldstein recorded those numbers getting from JE himself.

I see. I thought Engelmann might have released a new set of RAPM numbers like he did before on the APBR forum but this appears to be just somebody else combining various RAPM sources then. I made a same type of spreadsheet for 97-15 RAPM myself a few years ago except with a newer version of JE's 01 NPI RAPM.

Anyway, here is my preliminary vote since I have been forgetting to get my vote in time lately:

1. 2006 Dirk Nowitzki
Heavier minutes gives 06 the edge over 11 for Dirk's peak season.

2. 2020 Luka Doncic
Slightly overhyped because of people using raw ORtg for the team instead of relative ORtg but it is still an incredible season from a young player regardless. Great playoffs against a top 5 defense in the Clippers.

3. 2003 Steve Nash
An elite offensive point guard but not super high impact yet because the team was centered around Dirk.

4. 1987 Derek Harper
The 87 Mavs were low key an all time great RS offense with a higher relative ORtg than the 20 Mavs. Blackman and Aguirre both had good TS Add in 84 but their scoring numbers weren't that special in 87. Harper didn't score much but he had solid efficiency, he shot a lot of 3s for that era, he had an outlier CP3-esque 4.4 assist to turnover ratio, and he was an elite defender. Best player in the playoffs too for that team.

5. 2009 Jason Kidd
Very low scoring at this point in his career but does everything else really well.

[70sFan]

1. 2010/11 Dirk Nowitzki - I think that Dirk became a bit better offensive player in 2009-11 era and I decided to go with his best postseason run.

2. 2019/20 Luka Doncic - I have a feeling that he'd end up with even better season than last year, but he clearly deserves 2nd spot anyway.

3. 2002/03 Steve Nash - highly underrated season, he was already a strong all-nba caliber player at this point.

4. 1983/84 Mark Aguirre - Dallas in the 1980s were excellent offensive team and Aguirre always gave them strong scoring option and additional spacing. He's the best player in these teams in my opinion, though I could be wrong of course.

5. 2008/09 Jason Kidd - still elite defender, excellent passer and improving shooting made him ultimate secondary star.

I'm not nearly as high on Chandler's defense as some, so he doesn't make the cut. I also thought about Harper and Blackman.

[Dutchball97]

1. Dirk Nowitzki, 2010/11 - This is a similar situation as LeBron's 09 vs 16 seasons imo. The earlier season (06 for Dirk) is statistically much more dominant than the later season but the later season is a much more historic and succesful performance. I'm voting for the more confident, older season here just like I did for LeBron with the Cavs. The level of opposition Dirk faced, and dominated, makes me look past that his boxscore stats only look 'great' instead of historically great. I'd have either the 2006 or 2011 season over Luka's best season for now though.

2. Luka Doncic, 2019/20 - The hype around the 2011 title might make it difficult for Luka to surpass Dirk's peak anytime soon but at the same time I have little doubt that Luka will grow into a better player than Dirk was. You could even make an argument he already is a better player. Huge drop-off after the top 2 though.

3. Steve Nash, 2002/03 - Not too enamored by his post-season but it's not like it is a bad run either. His regular season is clearly the best out of the remaining candidates and while some of them have pretty strong play-off runs, they usually came in short first round losses or were accompanied by middling regular seasons.

4. Mark Aguirre, 1987/88 - The margins between number 3 and down are very close. At first I didn't think I'd have Aguirre in my top 5 but now I'm tempted to put him ahead of Nash even. Aguirre has a similarly pretty complete season to Nash but while I prefer Aguirre in the post-season here, Nash has a bigger advantage in the regular season.

5. Derek Harper, 1986/87 - I was going to put him 3rd as I'm just very impressed by his season overall and he even stepped his game up even further in the play-offs. The main thing going against him is that his best post-season outing was only 4 games long so I'm hesitant to rate that over the more complete seasons of Nash and Aguirre. Rolando Blackman in 84 has a pretty competitive season here that could just as well have made my top 5 and 2005 Jason Terry was just about as close. Jason Kidd isn't far off either but I'm a bit lower than the concensus about his level of play in those later Dallas seasons by the looks of it. Besides that Josh Howard deserves some acknowledgement for being just about the only player on the team to not **** the bed in the play-offs.

[Jaivl]

1) 2011 Dirk Nowitzki (+5.50)
2) 2020 Luka Doncic (+3.90)
3) 2003 Steve Nash (+3.75)
4) 1987 Mark Aguirre (+2.75)
5) 1990 Derek Harper (?)

Pretty much all evidence avaliable gives Aguirre the greatest impact on the 80s Dallas offenses. Their two best offensive seasons (84, 87) are his best scoring performances. After his trade, they plummet from consistently top of the league to below average for multiple years, with most of the main pieces (Blackman, Harper, Perkins, I guess you can count Donaldson too) still on their primes (sidenote: how was Donaldson an all-star in 1988???? That's the golden era of centers for you!).

The arguments for Blackman and Harper deserving the lion's share of credit on the offensive side are... pretty inexistent. I'm much more open to the case for Tarpley's injuries harming Dallas post-Aguirre, losing his monster offensive rebounding (although they were elite offensively before Tarpley as well). And Aguirre was also an excellent offensive rebounder for his position, so it's not only Tarpleys o-rebounding they were losing on. It's not the style of player I like, there are still lots of questions left (mainly defense) but I have to side with Carmelo Aguirre.

Going with Harper ar #5, but not very confidently. Yikes.
Chandler was impactful defensively and on his peak as a finisher, but it feels weird to have here a guy that probably wasn't top 25 on the league.
Not sold over old Kidd either - similar feelings to 2020 LeBron (although on a massively smaller scale), where the incredulity of a 127-years veteran still playing at a high level, with not much athleticism but a lot of bbIQ, impresses us more than his actual play. He's still a great defender, passer, surpisingly good 3pt shooter. But you can say the same about late Ricky Rubio (and even 2020 Ricky created a clearly bigger share of his shots), current Kyle Lowry. His responsabilities are minuscule - he does them really well, but it's still a minimal role. Harper, also a great defender, good shooter for the era, seems like a slightly better version of him.
Blackman just screams to me as a jack of all trades, master of none, solid sub-all star level player, in the mold of a Tim Hardaway Jr.

The top-3 are no brainers, as well as the order, IMO.

[sansterre]

5. 2007 Jason Terry

What separates 2007 Terry from Finley to you?

Terry over Kidd is hard for me to accept. Kind of goes against everything I would think in regards to "is basketball just about who is the best scorer"

I think there's a bit too much scepticism around Terry.

I know that Kidd ranks quite high in colts18 compilation of RAPM numbers. He's 9th in 2009 which is the top 2%. Recently I got my hands on Jeremias Engelmann's PI-RAPM numbers until 2018-19 season, recorded by Jacob Goldstein. His numbers include postseason too btw.
The document on Google Sheets
(Just create a copy for yourself to browse through seasons with filters)

And here's how Terry, Kidd and Chandler rank;

2005 Terry; top 12%
2006 Terry; top 11%
2007 Terry; top 4%
2008 Terry; top 5%
2009 Terry; top 14%
2010 Terry; top 23%
2011 Terry; top 19%

2009 Kidd; top 8%
2010 Kidd; top 16%
2011 Kidd; top 11%

2011 Chandler; top 7%

With Terry having 2 of 4 seasons in top 10%, and both of them being top 5% should make us trust him more than Kidd and Chandler if the reservation is him being a volume scorer and volume scoring not brining good enough impact.

Thanks for the link!

Possible ignorant question: are these numbers minute-adjusted? Ie, if Player A is +5 RAPM on 40 minutes a game and Player B is +5 RAPM on 35 minutes a game, is Player A the better player, or are the numbers taking minutes into account?

[Max123]

1) 2011 Dirk Nowitzki (+5.50)
2) 2020 Luka Doncic (+3.90)
3) 2003 Steve Nash (+3.75)
4) 1987 Mark Aguirre (+2.75)
5) That's tough... maybe Tyson Chandler, Derek Harper, young Kidd (?) or... Michael Finley? :S

Will complete later, as always

Quick, or maybe not so quick, question(s): What are the numbers in the brackets?

You are not the only person I’ve seen using those kinds of numbers to indicate player impact (or whatever word you want to use).
Does it have something to do with perhaps how many points a player adds to a team per 100 (75?) possessions? How do you approximate them assuming there is no direct formula that spits them out? Also how do you go about thinking how that number changes from team-to-team (portability/scalability) or is that something that is generally disregarded?


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

[HeartBreakKid]

1) 2011 Dirk Nowitzki (+5.50)
2) 2020 Luka Doncic (+3.90)
3) 2003 Steve Nash (+3.75)
4) 1987 Mark Aguirre (+2.75)
5) 1990 Derek Harper (?)

Pretty much all evidence avaliable gives Aguirre the greatest impact on the 80s Dallas offenses. Their two best offensive seasons (84, 87) are his best scoring performances. After his trade, they plummet from consistently top of the league to below average for multiple years, with most of the main pieces (Blackman, Harper, Perkins, I guess you can count Donaldson too) still on their primes (sidenote: how was Donaldson an all-star in 1988???? That's the golden era of centers for you!).

The arguments for Blackman and Harper deserving the lion's share of credit on the offensive side are... pretty inexistent. I'm much more open to the case for Tarpley's injuries harming Dallas post-Aguirre, losing his monster offensive rebounding (although they were elite offensively before Tarpley as well). And Aguirre was also an excellent offensive rebounder for his position, so it's not only Tarpleys o-rebounding they were losing on. It's not the style of player I like, there are still lots of questions left (mainly defense) but I have to side with Carmelo Aguirre.

Going with Harper ar #5, but not very confidently. Yikes.
Chandler was impactful defensively and on his peak as a finisher, but it feels weird to have here a guy that probably wasn't top 25 on the league.
Not sold over old Kidd either - similar feelings to 2020 LeBron (although on a massively smaller scale), where the incredulity of a 127-years veteran still playing at a high level, with not much athleticism but a lot of bbIQ, impresses us more than his actual play. He's still a great defender, passer, surpisingly good 3pt shooter. But you can say the same about late Ricky Rubio (and even 2020 Ricky created a clearly bigger share of his shots), current Kyle Lowry. His responsabilities are minuscule - he does them really well, but it's still a minimal role. Harper, also a great defender, good shooter for the era, seems like a slightly better version of him.
Blackman just screams to me as a jack of all trades, master of none, solid sub-all star level player, in the mold of a Tim Hardaway Jr.

The top-3 are no brainers, as well as the order, IMO.

Well, the next year Tyson Chandler joined the Knicks and for a majority of the season he seemed to be playing better than Carmelo Anthony (who is somewhat comparable to Aguire).

He did make all-nba and DPOY - which even if he didn't deserve those awards it does show he was pretty up there and should have at least been an all-star.

2013 comes and Tyson Chandler does make the all-star team, which generally means you're about a top 25-30 (injuries and conference strength can skew things, so top 30 feels more safe).

It might be difficult to actually write out 25 players who are clearly better than Tyson Chandler. And while maybe you can't say he was a slam dunk type of a guy, maybe you could do that experiment with a lot of all-star level Mavericks and it might not be clear if they'll make it till the end of the list.

[Jaivl]

You are not the only person I’ve seen using those kinds of numbers to indicate player impact (or whatever word you want to use).
Does it have something to do with perhaps how many points a player adds to a team per 100 (75?) possessions?

I try to do per game. It simplifies multi-era comparisons quite a bit, I think.

How do you approximate them assuming there is no direct formula that spits them out?

We do have a frame of reference that roughly approximates players' impacts. Going from there, you kinda estimate and compare with other players that we do have more data on, it's mostly by feel.

It has a big margin of error though, between the inherent error of the method, my own opinions can also be wrong (they are subjective opinions built-in over an objective-ish frame of reference, after all), adjusting for roster construction is nebulous and tricky, etc... Maybe Dirk, who I rated a +5.50, is actually a +7. Or a +4. I can't really know. Taylor has old Dallas Kidd as a barely above +0 player while I have him at about +1.5. Who knows.

Also how do you go about thinking how that number changes from team-to-team (portability/scalability) or is that something that is generally disregarded?

Don't like portability as a external concept to player evaluation. If I feel it's relevant, it's included. Don't feel it's that relevant to that many players.

.

That's fair although 2012 Melo is not really comparable to peak Aguirre.