[Project] Top 5 single season peaks by franchises: The Raptors

[Odinn21]

I'd like to get a feedback on this one.
Do I put too much stock into regular season play? Because even though Kawhi Leonard is easily the best player the Raptors ever had, I just can't see 2019 Leonard over 2001 Carter as for season value.

We all know Leonard's case, especially his performance in the 2019 playoffs. I'll make a case for Carter with what I see.

2019 Raptors; 58W team, 17-5 w/o Leonard who played 2040 mins in the season.
2001 Raptors; 47W team, 2-5 w/o Carter who played 2979 mins in the season (which is 939 mins and 46% more).

2019 Raptors without Leonard are still a postseason team, easily.
2001 Raptors without Carter are certainly not a postseason team.

Leonard was in the top 6% in Engelmann's RAPM.
Carter was in the top 4%.

As many of you know, I don't like the defensive component of BPM 2.0 but I see a value in OBPM. And I have an O-VORP calculator to see individual production rates.

Carter led the league in OBPM. He was #1 with 7.6 over Shaquille O'Neal with 7.0.

Leonard's O-VORP share was 31.9% in the regular season & 51.2% in the postseason.
Carter's O-VORP share was 55.1% in the regular season & 55.2% in the postseason.

And it wasn't like Carter's production rate did not turn into quality. He led a +2.9 rORtg offense in the regular season. He was in the top 1% in O-RAPM. He was slightly positive on defensive end too.

If we look at scoring numbers, Leonard scored at a better rate but Carter scored a bigger chunk of his team as the early '00s was the dead pace and hero-ball, high min era.

Leonard could play more, but he did not. Not only the games he played in load managed, his playtime was managed as well. That 939 mins / 46% more playtime gap is just too big to overlook for me I guess.

As I said, I know that quality wise Leonard takes the cake, no contest. In terms of franchise history, 2019 is literally the season. Leonard also easily wins in postseason CORP approach.
However, the issue here is how's that postseason appeared on the horizon for these versions. With the way how I look at things, it should be Carter over Leonard. I also might be higher on Carter's quality than the general perception of him. This kind of looks like placing 1998 Shaquille O'Neal over 1961 Baylor to me. There's a certain quality gap but even a bigger playtime gap.

[Dutchball97]

I'd like to get a feedback on this one.
Do I put too much stock into regular season play? Because even though Kawhi Leonard is easily the best player the Raptors ever had, I just can't see 2019 Leonard over 2001 Carter as for season value.

We all know Leonard's case, especially his performance in the 2019 playoffs. I'll make a case for Carter with what I see.

2019 Raptors; 58W team, 17-5 w/o Leonard who played 2040 mins in the season.
2001 Raptors; 47W team, 2-5 w/o Carter who played 2979 mins in the season (which is 939 mins and 46% more).

2019 Raptors without Leonard are still a postseason team, easily.
2001 Raptors without Carter are certainly not a postseason team.

Leonard was in the top 6% in Engelmann's RAPM.
Carter was in the top 4%.

As many of you know, I don't like the defensive component of BPM 2.0 but I see a value in OBPM. And I have an O-VORP calculator to see individual production rates.

Carter led the league in OBPM. He was #1 with 7.6 over Shaquille O'Neal with 7.0.

Leonard's O-VORP share was 31.9% in the regular season & 51.2% in the postseason.
Carter's O-VORP share was 55.1% in the regular season & 55.2% in the postseason.

And it wasn't like Carter's production rate did not turn into quality. He led a +2.9 rORtg offense in the regular season. He was in the top 1% in O-RAPM. He was slightly positive on defensive end too.

If we look at scoring numbers, Leonard scored at a better rate but Carter scored a bigger chunk of his team as the early '00s was the dead pace and hero-ball, high min era.

Leonard could play more, but he did not. Not only the games he played in load managed, his playtime was managed as well. That 939 mins / 46% more playtime gap is just too big to overlook for me I guess.

As I said, I know that quality wise Leonard takes the cake, no contest. In terms of franchise history, 2019 is literally the season. Leonard also easily wins in postseason CORP approach.
However, the issue here is how's that postseason appeared on the horizon for these versions. With the way how I look at things, it should be Carter over Leonard. I also might be higher on Carter's quality than the general perception of him. This kind of looks like placing 1998 Shaquille O'Neal over 1961 Baylor to me. There's a certain quality gap but even a bigger playtime gap.

I agree that Carter and Kawhi didn't have much between them in terms of regular season play and since Carter played significantly more I'd agree with 01 Carter over 19 Kawhi if we would be strictly speaking about the regular season. The thing is that I don't think 98 Shaq is a good comparison as he did not have a career defining, elite post-season run all the way to a ring like Kawhi had.

I know I'm on the opposite of the spectrum in terms of valuing regular season/play-offs but when one played more minutes in the regular season at a similar level, while the other had an All-Time great post-season I find it hard to value those extra regular season minutes anywhere close to those extra post-season games. Carter didn't really step his game up in the play-offs either, while Kawhi definitely did.

[Odinn21]

I agree that Carter and Kawhi didn't have much between them in terms of regular season play and since Carter played significantly more I'd agree with 01 Carter over 19 Kawhi if we would be strictly speaking about the regular season. The thing is that I don't think 98 Shaq is a good comparison as he did not have a career defining, elite post-season run all the way to a ring like Kawhi had.

In terms of championship value, I'm definitely way lower on Leonard's ring than most.

The only convincing the series the Raptors played was the ECF against the Bucks. The competition the Raptors faced in 2019 is one of the most crippled competitions ever. They were on the verge losing in the 2nd round against the Sixers even when Embiid was far from being fully healthy. Then the Warriors in the Finals were just below average competition for an NBA Finals series with issues they were having.
I give so much credit to Leonard's massive scoring against the Sixers, then his defensive performance against the Bucks. But the way I interpret your message, I feel like there's too much emphasis on ring and career defining.

I know I'm on the opposite of the spectrum in terms of valuing regular season/play-offs but when one played more minutes in the regular season at a similar level, while the other had an All-Time great post-season I find it hard to value those extra regular season minutes anywhere close to those extra post-season games. Carter didn't really step his game up in the play-offs either, while Kawhi definitely did.

But postseason minutes are not created the same, even within postseason vs. postseason comparison. Let alone regular season vs. postseason comparison.

There are two things to consider;
- An example for postseason vs. postseason
Magic Johnson played 430 minutes until the NBA Finals in 1987 postseason, Larry Bird played 761 minutes.
Adding the NBA Finals, Magic played 666 minutes and Bird played 1015 minutes.
As you mind, this is the very same season with each player playing the maximum series possible. One of them had a tougher competition on the way.
Postseason has no consistent baseline for playtime as regular season has.

To add that, Leonard was playing on a far capable team in a comparison to Carter's team. I don't think it should be a surprise that Leonard got to play more postseason games on a way better team.
And even then, Carter played 44.9 mpg in 12 games. Leonard played exactly double of 12 games and Carter's playtime is significantly higher than 50% with 57.4% (539/939). Because the minute allocation mechanics were different and also his team needed him like crazy. I mean even more so than the 2019 team needed Leonard while I know it sounds crazy.
I'm not a fan of looking postseason Rtg numbers but there's use in them when we look at on/off swings and Carter's on/off swing in playoffs was around +23 which is crazy. They had to play Carter for 93.6% of the time and the team collapsed without him on the court. Showing that they were no playoff team material without Carter.

- Another example for postseason vs. regular season
The high end in playtime for an all-star / a superstar in a regular season is 3150 minutes or so. (bar the '60s of course)
The low end is 2600 minutes or so. (Just think of it this way, player misses several games and plays 36 minutes per game and 75*36 is still 2700)

It was not like Leonard's playtime in regular season was close enough to Carter's. The playtime gap is nearly 50%. Carter was at the high end of the playtime spectrum for an individual. Leonard was 500 minutes away from the low end.

Given all the context, I don't think Carter playing 939 minutes more in regular season is still too big. In both situations, Leonard playing only 60 games with not so big minutes and then getting chance to play in more games and racking up more minutes, these 2 track back to Carter not being as fortunate.
If Carter played 60 games & 2040 minutes in the regular season, there's a very good chance that the Raptors would not make the playoffs at all. Postseason value couldn't be there to begin with.

I want to clarify that I know Leonard is the better player in here. If both were as fortunate, there'd be no debate and it's Leonard. Easily. But they weren't.

---

I also want to point out that Carter had an elite postseason run. He did not up his game as Leonard did. But he was still pretty good.

[Doctor MJ]

1. '18-19 Kawhi Leonard - a cut above

2. '00-01 Vince Carter - definitively the best peak player in franchise history prior to Kawhi.

3. '18-19 Kyle Lowry - only question is the year, and up to a certain point he was a brutal playoff choker

4. '07-08 Chris Bosh - definitely next up

5. '18-19 Pascal Siakam - I get the arguments against him, but there's really no one else.

[Djoker]

Finally my franchise!!

1. 2018-2019 Kawhi Leonard

No doubt about this one.

2. 2000-2001 Vince Carter

One of the most complete offensive players which often gets overlooked because of flashy dunks. Terrific slasher and finisher around the basket, 40% 3pt shooter, good midrange shooter, good ball handler and solid passer. Vince could even play some solid D at times though he wasn't always motivated at that end. The roster around him was pretty meh but Vince was the real deal. His postseason in 2001 was pretty insane.

3. 2009-2010 Chris Bosh

Averaged 24/11 on good efficiency.

4. 2015-2016 Kyle Lowry

A good floor general who knows how to lead a team. He has a knack for hitting big shots and sacrifices his body defensively in a big way. Great energy player and leader.

5. 2016-2017 Demar Derozan

Put up a 27/5/4 season on good efficiency then dropped in the playoffs as usual. He was a good pro and class act but has serious holes in this game regarding decision making and just a total lack of 3pt shot which hurt him.

HM: Damon Stoudemire, Pascal Siakam

[Doctor MJ]

I'd like to get a feedback on this one.
Do I put too much stock into regular season play? Because even though Kawhi Leonard is easily the best player the Raptors ever had, I just can't see 2019 Leonard over 2001 Carter as for season value.

We all know Leonard's case, especially his performance in the 2019 playoffs. I'll make a case for Carter with what I see.

Not a crazy perspective, but there's a thing that keeps me from really considering it too much:

Which season performance means more to Raptors fans?

As I've said before, I don't like the way that playoffs has made the RS a thing to be belittled, but meaning is what the people who are invested see as meaningful.

[Odinn21]

I'd like to get a feedback on this one.
Do I put too much stock into regular season play? Because even though Kawhi Leonard is easily the best player the Raptors ever had, I just can't see 2019 Leonard over 2001 Carter as for season value.

We all know Leonard's case, especially his performance in the 2019 playoffs. I'll make a case for Carter with what I see.

Not a crazy perspective, but there's a thing that keeps me from really considering it too much:

Which season performance means more to Raptors fans?

As I've said before, I don't like the way that playoffs has made the RS a thing to be belittled, but meaning is what the people who are invested see as meaningful.

As I said later, Kawhi Leonard's 2019 is the season for the Raptors franchise. I'm definitely not disputing that.
My perspective about this project is "what's the best individual seasons happened for each franchises". Not something as "what's the most valuable season to franchise". The nuance difference is keeping me on a fence in this one.
The following example will be directly about this nuance difference, please do not take it as a point regarding Leonard vs. Carter;
I'd expect that many Spurs fans would take 2005 Ginobili over 1979 Gervin because it was more meaningful/valuable/important. Whichever adjactive is your choice. But should it necessarily mean that 2005 Ginobili > 1979 Gervin?
In that sense, we probably should've voted 1987 Magic as the #1 Lakers season. 1977 Kareem would be nowhere near of top 3.

I just look at quality and total playtime to determine total value of a season. I don't consider much of anything else tbh.

[Jaivl]

1. 2019 Kawhi Leonard
On another team it might've been different, but the 2019 Raptors weren't bothered by his regular season rests. Not as high regular season stats as Carter and kind of an underwhelming win total for such a roster, but he had another gear on the playoffs: better offensively than Vince and clearly better on defense as well (albeit not his DPOY self).

2. 2001 Vince Carter
Great offensive year. Impact metrics rate very highly, managed to spit a very respectable offense with a challenged roster. The better offensive carryjob of 2001 by a margin

3. 2018 Kyle Lowry
His 2017 might've been #3 if not for the injury. Just a very solid player overall that was carrying a role a bit too big for him (and a heavy backpack with the initials DDR).

4. 2010 Chris Bosh
I feel Miami Bosh is his best interation and 2010 is the closest to that. Not the rim protector that he'd become in Miami, but the spacing is already there (+46% from the long two). Good offensive #2.

5. 2005 Donyell Marshall
Obviously not sure about it, but I feel he's the best between that bunch of "meh".

Swapped Lowry and Bosh (what was I thinking about), added

[Odinn21]

4 hours left on the clock for this one.

---

This time around, I'll be that guy spoiling a perfect record of #1 player.

1. 2001 Vince Carter
2. 2019 Kawhi Leonard
For the reasons I mentioned earlier.

3. 2010 Chris Bosh
4. 2016 Kyle Lowry
There 4 seasons to consider; 2008 and 2010 from Bosh and 2016 and 2018 from Lowry. There was quite gaps in certain aspects.
2008 Bosh played 67 games, 2425 mins in 2007-08 season. He was 12th in RAPM which is around top 2.5%. He had a good postseason series on an underdog. He created so much that Kapono went hot like crazy.
2010 Bosh played 70 games, 2526 mins in 2009-10 season. He was 11th in RAPM which is also around top 2.5%. The Raptors outside Bosh were just pathetic and they ended up missing the playoffs by 1 game.
2016 Lowry played 77 games, 2851 mins in 2015-16 season. He was 4th in RAPM which is top 1%. But his postseason performance was just awful for such a player.
2018 Lowry played 70 games, 2510 mins in 2017-18 season. He was 28th in RAPM which is top 6%. His postseason performance this time around was way better than his 2016.

I feel like this is the way to go. Bosh did not get to play in postseason in 2010 and picking a complete season without postseason play is not a popular thing to do in these things but to me, it feels more convincing this way.

5. 2019 Pascal Siakam
2013 Amir Johnson was pretty high up in RAPM numbers. He was in top 2% in RAPM. He had decent on court production too. But there's not a playtime advantage for him. In fact, Siakam has that advantage and he also had one of the more significant runs from a complementary piece. Neither are centrepiece players. So, I have to go with Siakam in here.

HM; 2013 Amir Johnson

By the way you'd be surprised how low the other players are ranked in RAPM numbers. I guess the only player I haven't mentioned so far yet had somewhat significant positive value was 2017/2018 DeRozan.

[Odinn21]

The Raptors results;

Code: Select all

1. 8-1-0-0-0 / 87 points / 0.967 share / '19 Kawhi Leonard
2. 1-8-0-0-0 / 66 points / 0.733 share / '01 Vince Carter
3. 0-0-7-2-0 / 41 points / 0.456 share / '18 Kyle Lowry
4. 0-0-2-6-1 / 29 points / 0.322 share / '10 Chris Bosh
5. 0-0-0-0-5 /  5 points / 0.056 share / '19 Pascal Siakam

6. 0-0-0-1-0 /  3 points / 0.033 share / '98 Doug Christie
7. 0-0-0-0-1 /  1 points / 0.011 share / '05 Donyell Marshall
8. 0-0-0-0-1 /  1 points / 0.011 share / '14 Amir Johnson
9. 0-0-0-0-1 /  1 points / 0.011 share / '17 DeMar DeRozan

Results on Google Sheet