Lebron vs Jordan RAPM/Impact

[stormi]

Elite scoring 6'8 positionless floor general dominates the impact of a one dimensional 6'6 SG.

Not really that hard to fathom conceptually. Lebron James is the greatest player to ever step on the hardwood.

[falcolombardi]

Elite scoring 6'8 positionless floor general dominates the impact of a one dimensional 6'6 SG.

Not really that hard to fathom conceptually. Lebron James is the greatest player to ever step on the hardwood.

I actually agree (except for calling jordan one-dimensional when he was such a great defender, shot creator for teammates, rebounder, ball security guy, etc)

But damn if this is not gonna be controversial lol

[MyUniBroDavis]

From the peaks project...
LeBron:

+8.84 in 2009 (would be 4th all time), +9.73 in 2011 (would be 2nd all time), +9.5 in 2012 (would be 2nd all time), +6.4 in 2013 (would be 13th all time), 6.79 in 2014, 8.7 in 2015, +8.62 in 2016 (would be 4th all time), 6.62 in 2017, 1.56 in 2018 (holy coasting! wow!), 3.44 in 2019.

Jordan:

+7.47 in 1988 (would be 8th all time. 43 game sample where Bulls just barely performed better than their average season level), +6.40 in 1991 (57 games where Bulls drastically underperformed their average season level), +7.17 in 1996 (21 games sample where Bulls performed at their average season level), +5.85 in 1997 (full season sample), +6.15 in 1998.```

The data isn't complete, but so far lebron has 4 different seasons that score signifcantly higher than any of MJ's. Is this just noise? Or does this suggest Lebron was more impactful?

Interestingly while all of lebron's defenses seem to collapse when he leaves, the bulls got much better defensively between 89 and 91 as jordan's defense was declining and were unaffected defensively in 94 when jordan left. So maybe defense is the difference here? Jordan hasn't actually ever anchored elite playoff defenses while lebron arguably did in 09, 11, 13, 15, and 16.

I think you put the PI RAPM vs the NPI RAPM

You should get the standard deviations if you’re comparing acrosss years, although there are other caveats across eras

[Lou Fan]

Considering LeBron teams are literally built to be optimized when he's out there and useless when he's not I think if anything this makes Jordan look good but as others have said comparing RAPM across eras/seasons is messy.

[falcolombardi]

Considering LeBron teams are literally built to be optimized when he's out there and useless when he's not I think if anything this makes Jordan look good but as others have said comparing RAPM across eras/seasons is messy.

Literally every team builds around their best player.....what is this reasoning lol

Is it that hard to give lebron credit?

[Lou Fan]

Considering LeBron teams are literally built to be optimized when he's out there and useless when he's not I think if anything this makes Jordan look good but as others have said comparing RAPM across eras/seasons is messy.

Literally every team builds around their best player.....what is this reasoning lol

Is it that hard to give lebron credit?

This is a rather obvious observation to make. A huge part of RAPM is role and team context. After the first few years of his first Cavs stint (and arguably even then) what I said was clearly true. Building around your best player is a disingenuous blanket statement for what we both know can be very different on a case by case basis.

It's weird how every LeBron supporter automatically assumes someone who doesn't think as highly of him as them has a desire to not "give LeBron credit." LeBron is one of the greatest players ever. Just because I do not think he is THE greatest ever should not be taken as a slight or indicative of bias. The fact you think it does means you are the one with a warped perception, not me.

[HeartBreakKid]

Considering LeBron teams are literally built to be optimized when he's out there and useless when he's not I think if anything this makes Jordan look good but as others have said comparing RAPM across eras/seasons is messy.

Literally every team builds around their best player.....what is this reasoning lol

Is it that hard to give lebron credit?

This is a rather obvious observation to make. A huge part of RAPM is role and team context. After his first Cavs stint (and arguably even then) what I said was clearly true. Building around your best player is a disingenuous blanket statement for what we both know can be very different on a case by case basis.

It's weird how every LeBron supporter automatically assumes someone who doesn't think as highly of him as them has a desire to not "give LeBron credit." LeBron is one of the greatest players ever. Just because I do not think he is THE greatest ever should not be taken as a slight or indicative of bias. The fact you think it does means you are the one with a warped perception, not me.

I mean you're saying RAPM heavily favor's James because his team is built around him?? It doesn't sound like a well thought out post.

It's like you're taking the imagery of Lebron-Ball and pushing it as far as it can go.

You must realize that when any team especially the 90s Bulls are making their rosters they are thinking about how the players fit with Michael Jordan or their superstar and pretty much nothing else, right? If so, doesn't that heavily diminish your point?

Unless you just mean that the Bulls have a better bench than most of Lebron's teams, then I suppose so. Though I don't think that has much to do with player optimization.

Also, Lebron played with different rosters and in more variations - if things were optimized his teams would be clones of each other but they're very much not.

[Lou Fan]

Literally every team builds around their best player.....what is this reasoning lol

Is it that hard to give lebron credit?

This is a rather obvious observation to make. A huge part of RAPM is role and team context. After his first Cavs stint (and arguably even then) what I said was clearly true. Building around your best player is a disingenuous blanket statement for what we both know can be very different on a case by case basis.

It's weird how every LeBron supporter automatically assumes someone who doesn't think as highly of him as them has a desire to not "give LeBron credit." LeBron is one of the greatest players ever. Just because I do not think he is THE greatest ever should not be taken as a slight or indicative of bias. The fact you think it does means you are the one with a warped perception, not me.

I mean you're saying RAPM heavily favor's James because his team is built around him?? It doesn't sound like a well thought out post.

It's like you're taking the imagery of Lebron-Ball and pushing it as far as it can go.

You must realize that when any team especially the 90s Bulls are making their rosters they are thinking about how the players fit with Michael Jordan or their superstar and pretty much nothing else, right? If so, doesn't that heavily diminish your point?

Unless you just mean that the Bulls have a better bench than most of Lebron's teams, then I suppose so. Though I don't think that has much to do with player optimization.

Also, Lebron played with different rosters and in more variations - if things were optimized his teams would be clones of each other but they're very much not.

You're ignoring half of the reasoning. It's not just that James' teams were structured in a way to maximize his individual impact while he was out there they were also structured in such a way were it virtually guaranteed that they would be hapless without him. This is true both from a roster construction standpoint and a coaching standpoint.

Do you not think LeBron ball is a thing that exists. Maybe some fans have perverted the concept but it is absolutely a term when used properly that describes how his teams have played. Surely you agree with that.

Again there are degrees to this. If you can't see the nuance in that that's not my problem.

Well that is also mostly true but it was not my point.

[falcolombardi]

This is a rather obvious observation to make. A huge part of RAPM is role and team context. After his first Cavs stint (and arguably even then) what I said was clearly true. Building around your best player is a disingenuous blanket statement for what we both know can be very different on a case by case basis.

It's weird how every LeBron supporter automatically assumes someone who doesn't think as highly of him as them has a desire to not "give LeBron credit." LeBron is one of the greatest players ever. Just because I do not think he is THE greatest ever should not be taken as a slight or indicative of bias. The fact you think it does means you are the one with a warped perception, not me.

I mean you're saying RAPM heavily favor's James because his team is built around him?? It doesn't sound like a well thought out post.

It's like you're taking the imagery of Lebron-Ball and pushing it as far as it can go.

You must realize that when any team especially the 90s Bulls are making their rosters they are thinking about how the players fit with Michael Jordan or their superstar and pretty much nothing else, right? If so, doesn't that heavily diminish your point?

Unless you just mean that the Bulls have a better bench than most of Lebron's teams, then I suppose so. Though I don't think that has much to do with player optimization.

Also, Lebron played with different rosters and in more variations - if things were optimized his teams would be clones of each other but they're very much not.

You're ignoring half of the reasoning. It's not just that James' teams were structured in a way to maximize his individual impact while he was out there they were also structured in such a way were it virtually guaranteed that they would be hapless without him. This is true both from a roster construction standpoint and a coaching standpoint.

Do you not think LeBron ball is a thing that exists. Maybe some fans have perverted the concept but it is absolutely a term when used properly that describes how his teams have played. Surely you agree with that.

Again there are degrees to this. If you can't see the nuance in that that's not my problem.

Well that is also mostly true but it was not my point.

Rapm =/= raw on-off

You dont get a more impressive rapn because the lineups without you suck

[Lou Fan]

I mean you're saying RAPM heavily favor's James because his team is built around him?? It doesn't sound like a well thought out post.

It's like you're taking the imagery of Lebron-Ball and pushing it as far as it can go.

You must realize that when any team especially the 90s Bulls are making their rosters they are thinking about how the players fit with Michael Jordan or their superstar and pretty much nothing else, right? If so, doesn't that heavily diminish your point?

Unless you just mean that the Bulls have a better bench than most of Lebron's teams, then I suppose so. Though I don't think that has much to do with player optimization.

Also, Lebron played with different rosters and in more variations - if things were optimized his teams would be clones of each other but they're very much not.

You're ignoring half of the reasoning. It's not just that James' teams were structured in a way to maximize his individual impact while he was out there they were also structured in such a way were it virtually guaranteed that they would be hapless without him. This is true both from a roster construction standpoint and a coaching standpoint.

Do you not think LeBron ball is a thing that exists. Maybe some fans have perverted the concept but it is absolutely a term when used properly that describes how his teams have played. Surely you agree with that.

Again there are degrees to this. If you can't see the nuance in that that's not my problem.

Well that is also mostly true but it was not my point.

Rapm =/= raw on-off

You dont get a more impressive rapn because the lineups without you suck

It makes the players who he played with seem worse than they are so more credit is given James in the lineups they play together in. I understand RAPM is not +-.

[falcolombardi]

You're ignoring half of the reasoning. It's not just that James' teams were structured in a way to maximize his individual impact while he was out there they were also structured in such a way were it virtually guaranteed that they would be hapless without him. This is true both from a roster construction standpoint and a coaching standpoint.

Do you not think LeBron ball is a thing that exists. Maybe some fans have perverted the concept but it is absolutely a term when used properly that describes how his teams have played. Surely you agree with that.

Again there are degrees to this. If you can't see the nuance in that that's not my problem.

Well that is also mostly true but it was not my point.

Rapm =/= raw on-off

You dont get a more impressive rapn because the lineups without you suck

It makes the players who he played with seem worse than they are so more credit is given James in the lineups they play together in. I understand RAPM is not +-.

Players who played with lebron get to look better by rapm than they are precisely because they play -with-lebron

The players who would look worse by rapm would ve those that play -less- with lebron....anf since they play so little with lebron then they wont affect his rapm as much

[Sark]

Data is way too incomplete to do this, especially with a 43 game sample size for Jordan.

[falcolombardi]

Data is way too incomplete to do this, especially with a 43 game sample size for Jordan.

I agree with the sample size part

Would like to have at least a 2-season sample before taking it at somewhat clpse to face value

[Lou Fan]

Rapm =/= raw on-off

You dont get a more impressive rapn because the lineups without you suck

It makes the players who he played with seem worse than they are so more credit is given James in the lineups they play together in. I understand RAPM is not +-.

Players who played with lebron get to look better by rapm than they are precisely because they play -with-lebron

The players who would look worse by rapm would ve those that play -less- with lebron....anf since they play so little with lebron then they wont affect his rapm as much

Well it depends on the player but in general agree to disagree. I think that LeBron's impact numbers are inflated by his team context and role you don't have to accept my reasoning or conclusion but you're not really providing any reasons why I should change my mind either. I'm also surprised at the refusal to acknowledge that building around different stars is very different and that some teams build to maximize their star and some build to maximize their team and there's a difference between those two things. For example no one in their right mind could claim the current Warriors are built to maximize Curry but they are attempting to maximize the team.

[falcolombardi]

It makes the players who he played with seem worse than they are so more credit is given James in the lineups they play together in. I understand RAPM is not +-.

Players who played with lebron get to look better by rapm than they are precisely because they play -with-lebron

The players who would look worse by rapm would ve those that play -less- with lebron....anf since they play so little with lebron then they wont affect his rapm as much

Well it depends on the player but in general agree to disagree. I think that LeBron's impact numbers are inflated by his team context and role you don't have to accept my reasoning or conclusion but you're not really providing any reasons why I should change my mind either. I'm also surprised at the refusal to acknowledge that building around different stars is very different and that some teams build to maximize their star and some build to maximize their team and there's a difference between those two things. For example no one in their right mind could claim the current Warriors are built to maximize Curry but they are attempting to maximize the team.

Ehh you are the one who still has not explained how exactly lebron teams "inflate" his plus-minus compared to jordan teams

Or how you would have inflated plus-minus for that matter, +/- is a direct number of by how much is your team winning when you play, you cannot statpad that

The onlt way would be if jordan played a ton with bench lineups and lebron didnt (which is not the case as far as i know) and even that wouldnt apply to rapm

If lebron played almost exclusively with his twam best players at the expense of bench lineups sucking that -still- wouldnt matter for rapm -precisely- because he is not playing with them

[Lou Fan]

Players who played with lebron get to look better by rapm than they are precisely because they play -with-lebron

The players who would look worse by rapm would ve those that play -less- with lebron....anf since they play so little with lebron then they wont affect his rapm as much

Well it depends on the player but in general agree to disagree. I think that LeBron's impact numbers are inflated by his team context and role you don't have to accept my reasoning or conclusion but you're not really providing any reasons why I should change my mind either. I'm also surprised at the refusal to acknowledge that building around different stars is very different and that some teams build to maximize their star and some build to maximize their team and there's a difference between those two things. For example no one in their right mind could claim the current Warriors are built to maximize Curry but they are attempting to maximize the team.

Ehh you are the one who still has not explained how exactly lebron teams "inflate" his plus-minus compared to jordan teams

Yes I have. One more time for clarification if you make me repeat myself again I'll assume you're just being obstinate to goad me. LeBron's teams are constructed from both a roster and coaching perspective to maximize his impact as an individual. They're also constructed in such a way that they will almost certainly fail without him thus causing RAPM to underrate his teammates and as a result give LeBron more credit than he deserves in the lineups where he plays with those teammates.

This is not true of Jordan's teams and is less true of virtually every other superstar ever because LeBron has had an unprecedented amount of team control and has had a mostly unprecedented on court role (the aforementioned LeBron ball) that makes him look better than he should in impact data. Now with that all being said he's still obviously the greatest player of his era.

[falcolombardi]

Well it depends on the player but in general agree to disagree. I think that LeBron's impact numbers are inflated by his team context and role you don't have to accept my reasoning or conclusion but you're not really providing any reasons why I should change my mind either. I'm also surprised at the refusal to acknowledge that building around different stars is very different and that some teams build to maximize their star and some build to maximize their team and there's a difference between those two things. For example no one in their right mind could claim the current Warriors are built to maximize Curry but they are attempting to maximize the team.

Ehh you are the one who still has not explained how exactly lebron teams "inflate" his plus-minus compared to jordan teams

Yes I have. One more time for clarification if you make me repeat myself again I'll assume you're just being obstinate to goad me. LeBron's teams are constructed from both a roster and coaching perspective to maximize his impact as an individual. They're also constructed in such a way that they will almost certainly fail without him thus causing RAPM to underrate his teammates and as a result give LeBron more credit than he deserves in the lineups where he plays with those teammates.

This is not true of Jordan's teams and is less true of virtually every other superstar ever because LeBron has had an unprecedented amount of team control and has had a mostly unprecedented on court role (the aforementioned LeBron ball) that makes him look better than he should in impact data. Now with that all being said he's still obviously the greatest player of his era.

Your argument essentially is based around the idea that lebron is at fault for his teammates level of play with him offcourt, him and him alone

And if someone else's, jordan in this case, teammates do better than lebron's in minutes without jordan then it must be because jordan who is not even playing did somethingh on court for it to happen

This theory is widely popular even when occam razor tells us that the simplest explanation is usually the right one,that the bench players were better or worse

At least at playing without an all time great on court (a very useful thingh to have as lebron/jordan cannot play 48 mins a game)

[ChartFiction]

Well it depends on the player but in general agree to disagree. I think that LeBron's impact numbers are inflated by his team context and role you don't have to accept my reasoning or conclusion but you're not really providing any reasons why I should change my mind either. I'm also surprised at the refusal to acknowledge that building around different stars is very different and that some teams build to maximize their star and some build to maximize their team and there's a difference between those two things. For example no one in their right mind could claim the current Warriors are built to maximize Curry but they are attempting to maximize the team.

Ehh you are the one who still has not explained how exactly lebron teams "inflate" his plus-minus compared to jordan teams

Yes I have. One more time for clarification if you make me repeat myself again I'll assume you're just being obstinate to goad me. LeBron's teams are constructed from both a roster and coaching perspective to maximize his impact as an individual. They're also constructed in such a way that they will almost certainly fail without him thus causing RAPM to underrate his teammates and as a result give LeBron more credit than he deserves in the lineups where he plays with those teammates.

This is not true of Jordan's teams and is less true of virtually every other superstar ever because LeBron has had an unprecedented amount of team control and has had a mostly unprecedented on court role (the aforementioned LeBron ball) that makes him look better than he should in impact data. Now with that all being said he's still obviously the greatest player of his era.

It's so funny how people use RAPM.

Playoff RAPM is the worst. It's going to be completely thrown off by strength of conference, random injuries, crystallized lineups, low sample. All you're meaningfully going to get out of it is which lineups ended up with good playoff success, but you still see people on this board using it to rank players. The error would dwarf the margins of differences.

[Lou Fan]

Ehh you are the one who still has not explained how exactly lebron teams "inflate" his plus-minus compared to jordan teams

Yes I have. One more time for clarification if you make me repeat myself again I'll assume you're just being obstinate to goad me. LeBron's teams are constructed from both a roster and coaching perspective to maximize his impact as an individual. They're also constructed in such a way that they will almost certainly fail without him thus causing RAPM to underrate his teammates and as a result give LeBron more credit than he deserves in the lineups where he plays with those teammates.

This is not true of Jordan's teams and is less true of virtually every other superstar ever because LeBron has had an unprecedented amount of team control and has had a mostly unprecedented on court role (the aforementioned LeBron ball) that makes him look better than he should in impact data. Now with that all being said he's still obviously the greatest player of his era.

Your argument essentially is based around the idea that lebron is at fault for his teammates level of play with him offcourt, him and him alone

And if someone else's, jordan in this case, teammates do better than lebron's in minutes without jordan then it must be because jordan who is not even playing did somethingh on court for it to happen

This theory is widely popular even when occam razor tells us that the simplest explanation is usually the right one,that the bench players were better or worse

At least at playing without an all time great on court (a very useful thingh to have as lebron/jordan cannot play 48 mins a game)

No it's not. I don't get why this is so hard to grasp for you. If LeBron had Jordan's teammates my contention is those teams would perform worse with LeBron on the court than LeBron's real teams did and better while LeBron was off the court than LeBron's teams did.

Occam razor doesn't even apply here. You're not even engaging with my argument and assuming the conclusion you want. You can disagree with my argument. That's fine. I think it's fairly obvious that it's true at least to some extent and if you disagreed with the extent and still think LeBron is better that would be totally reasonable. I don't want to assume malintent but it doesn't seem to me you're engaging in this with sincerity. I don't think I've explained myself so poorly that after multiple posts you're still misrepresenting my arguments.

[homecourtloss]

Considering LeBron teams are literally built to be optimized when he's out there and useless when he's not I think if anything this makes Jordan look good but as others have said comparing RAPM across eras/seasons is messy.

Considering LeBron teams are literally built to be optimized when he's out there and useless when he's not I think if anything this makes Jordan look good but as others have said comparing RAPM across eras/seasons is messy.

Literally every team builds around their best player.....what is this reasoning lol

Is it that hard to give lebron credit?

This is a rather obvious observation to make. A huge part of RAPM is role and team context. After his first Cavs stint (and arguably even then) what I said was clearly true. Building around your best player is a disingenuous blanket statement for what we both know can be very different on a case by case basis.

It's weird how every LeBron supporter automatically assumes someone who doesn't think as highly of him as them has a desire to not "give LeBron credit." LeBron is one of the greatest players ever. Just because I do not think he is THE greatest ever should not be taken as a slight or indicative of bias. The fact you think it does means you are the one with a warped perception, not me.

This is a rather obvious observation to make. A huge part of RAPM is role and team context. After his first Cavs stint (and arguably even then) what I said was clearly true. Building around your best player is a disingenuous blanket statement for what we both know can be very different on a case by case basis.

It's weird how every LeBron supporter automatically assumes someone who doesn't think as highly of him as them has a desire to not "give LeBron credit." LeBron is one of the greatest players ever. Just because I do not think he is THE greatest ever should not be taken as a slight or indicative of bias. The fact you think it does means you are the one with a warped perception, not me.

I mean you're saying RAPM heavily favor's James because his team is built around him?? It doesn't sound like a well thought out post.

It's like you're taking the imagery of Lebron-Ball and pushing it as far as it can go.

You must realize that when any team especially the 90s Bulls are making their rosters they are thinking about how the players fit with Michael Jordan or their superstar and pretty much nothing else, right? If so, doesn't that heavily diminish your point?

Unless you just mean that the Bulls have a better bench than most of Lebron's teams, then I suppose so. Though I don't think that has much to do with player optimization.

Also, Lebron played with different rosters and in more variations - if things were optimized his teams would be clones of each other but they're very much not.

You're ignoring half of the reasoning. It's not just that James' teams were structured in a way to maximize his individual impact while he was out there they were also structured in such a way were it virtually guaranteed that they would be hapless without him. This is true both from a roster construction standpoint and a coaching standpoint.

Do you not think LeBron ball is a thing that exists. Maybe some fans have perverted the concept but it is absolutely a term when used properly that describes how his teams have played. Surely you agree with that.

Again there are degrees to this. If you can't see the nuance in that that's not my problem.

Well that is also mostly true but it was not my point.

You're ignoring half of the reasoning. It's not just that James' teams were structured in a way to maximize his individual impact while he was out there they were also structured in such a way were it virtually guaranteed that they would be hapless without him. This is true both from a roster construction standpoint and a coaching standpoint.

Do you not think LeBron ball is a thing that exists. Maybe some fans have perverted the concept but it is absolutely a term when used properly that describes how his teams have played. Surely you agree with that.

Again there are degrees to this. If you can't see the nuance in that that's not my problem.

Well that is also mostly true but it was not my point.

Rapm =/= raw on-off

You dont get a more impressive rapn because the lineups without you suck

It makes the players who he played with seem worse than they are so more credit is given James in the lineups they play together in. I understand RAPM is not +-.

It makes the players who he played with seem worse than they are so more credit is given James in the lineups they play together in. I understand RAPM is not +-.

Players who played with lebron get to look better by rapm than they are precisely because they play -with-lebron

The players who would look worse by rapm would ve those that play -less- with lebron....anf since they play so little with lebron then they wont affect his rapm as much

Well it depends on the player but in general agree to disagree. I think that LeBron's impact numbers are inflated by his team context and role you don't have to accept my reasoning or conclusion but you're not really providing any reasons why I should change my mind either. I'm also surprised at the refusal to acknowledge that building around different stars is very different and that some teams build to maximize their star and some build to maximize their team and there's a difference between those two things. For example no one in their right mind could claim the current Warriors are built to maximize Curry but they are attempting to maximize the team.

Well it depends on the player but in general agree to disagree. I think that LeBron's impact numbers are inflated by his team context and role you don't have to accept my reasoning or conclusion but you're not really providing any reasons why I should change my mind either. I'm also surprised at the refusal to acknowledge that building around different stars is very different and that some teams build to maximize their star and some build to maximize their team and there's a difference between those two things. For example no one in their right mind could claim the current Warriors are built to maximize Curry but they are attempting to maximize the team.

Ehh you are the one who still has not explained how exactly lebron teams "inflate" his plus-minus compared to jordan teams

Yes I have. One more time for clarification if you make me repeat myself again I'll assume you're just being obstinate to goad me. LeBron's teams are constructed from both a roster and coaching perspective to maximize his impact as an individual. They're also constructed in such a way that they will almost certainly fail without him thus causing RAPM to underrate his teammates and as a result give LeBron more credit than he deserves in the lineups where he plays with those teammates.

This is not true of Jordan's teams and is less true of virtually every other superstar ever because LeBron has had an unprecedented amount of team control and has had a mostly unprecedented on court role (the aforementioned LeBron ball) that makes him look better than he should in impact data. Now with that all being said he's still obviously the greatest player of his era.

You really have zero idea how RAPM is calculated or what it measures if you believe the things you’re posting here.