Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #14 - 1963-64 Oscar Robertson

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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #14 

Post#21 » by trex_8063 » Sat Jul 30, 2022 8:19 pm

eminence wrote:
I guess I wasn't doing any time machining in my analysis. I agree he wouldn't have that same margin today. I do think he'd be close to it through some combo of B/C. Oscar was a very strong shooter by any measure and also routinely towards the very top of the league in FTs drawn (Wilt usually the one to overshadow).

But Oscar (in prime) was always his teams leading scorer and usually by a significant margin. I prefer mid/later career LeBron and Luka as stylistic comps. Obviously each still has their own strengths (LeBron more explosive, Oscar the best shooter, okay Luka might not have a clear strength, but no shame vs that pair).

As a scorer only, I think Kawhi is probably the best modern comp. Steady handle to get wherever he wants on the floor, insane strength for size and rising to hit any shot after bumping off the defender.

Luka probably my favorite overall offensive comp.


I like the Kawhi comp as a scorer.

Overall, LeBron is an OK comp; but I think the way Oscar is a much better shooter from 10-23' [and at the line] blows LeBron away, while LeBron's rim game utterly destroys Oscar [or nearly any other perimeter player, for that matter].

Luka is a slightly better comp all-around than LeBron, although his approach perhaps not quite as cautious as Oscar. He loves to get into that 8-15' range, create the tiny bit of contact and space and shoot over, much like Oscar.


One word of caution when looking at FT-rates of that era: remember that thru most of his career any backcourt foul was an automatic 1 FT, and in spite of what many critics of today say, there was not much physicality allowed on the perimeter, at least in the first half of Oscar's career.
Consequently, primary ball-handlers were often racking up FTA's, without necessarily challenging the defense much.

EDIT: Note how even someone like Odie Smith has a higher FTAr than guys like Nash, Paul, or Curry; as did Bob Cousy [despite mostly shooting outside set-shots and running hook shots, etc].
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #14 

Post#22 » by iggymcfrack » Sat Jul 30, 2022 11:07 pm

Just gonna get a vote in even though I'm not married to my third choice.

1. 2021/22 Nikola Jokic- Best regular season ever by PER and BPM, 5th best postseason ever by PER with impact numbers that dominate the competition much more than the box score metrics. Incredible playmaking as Jokic combines the best passing from a big man ever with a surprisingly low amount of time holding the ball for such an offensive hub. He also has the highest RAPTOR since that started being tracked in 2013/14.

2. 1995/96 David Robinson- Led the league in PER in both the regular season AND postseason while anchoring the 3rd best defense in the league. Early impact metrics had him neck and neck with Michael Jordan for best player in the league. When Robinson missed the vast majority of the following season, the Spurs defense went from 3rd/29 to 29th/29. They were 9 points worse per 100 possessions. The following season when he returned, the defense improved 13 points per 100 possessions. His defensive impact vastly outpaced his box score value and you can argue that at this point in his career, he was right there with anyone else in the history of the league for most valuable defensive players. I have a hard time believing that Bill Russell ever peaked higher than David Robinson for instance since Robinson had such a strong offensive game while providing at least 95% of the same value on defense.

3. 2010/11 Dirk Nowitzki- In 2 strong RAPM samples, he ranked incredibly high finishing 1st overall in the NBAShotCharts site which spanned from 2010-2022 and he also ranked #3 in the 97-14 sample on Yahoo behind 2 LeBron years and one year from Tim Duncan. The Mavericks were approximately a -6 with him on the bench in both the regular season and postseason and yet, he led them to sweep Kobe and Pau in the first round and beat a superteam of Wade, Bosh, and LeBron that many thought was the best team ever established at the time.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #14 

Post#23 » by trelos6 » Sat Jul 30, 2022 11:20 pm

14. Jerry West. Hard to pick a season. So many great ones. Maybe 1968. He was 21 pp75 and +9rTS%. Team offence was good and he was his usual demon self in the playoffs.

15. David Robinson. 1994. Not his defensive best, but pretty close to it. And definitely his offensive peak. 29.4 pp75 at +4.9rTS%

16. Comes down to Kawhi v Jokic. And I think I’m going Kawhi. 2016-17. He took a big step up to the offensive machine he is today. And his defence took a small step back from its stratospheric levels, but it was still there on key possessions. 29 pp75 at +5.7 rTS%


Next 3 for tiebreakers are Jokic, Durant, Kobe
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #14 

Post#24 » by No-more-rings » Sat Jul 30, 2022 11:21 pm

iggymcfrack wrote:Just gonna get a vote in even though I'm not married to my third choice.

1. 2021/22 Nikola Jokic- Best regular season ever by PER and BPM, 5th best postseason ever by PER with impact numbers that dominate the competition much more than the box score metrics. Incredible playmaking as Jokic combines the best passing from a big man ever with a surprisingly low amount of time holding the ball for such an offensive hub. He also has the highest RAPTOR since that started being tracked in 2013/14.

2. 1995/96 David Robinson- Led the league in PER in both the regular season AND postseason while anchoring the 3rd best defense in the league. Early impact metrics had him neck and neck with Michael Jordan for best player in the league. When Robinson missed the vast majority of the following season, the Spurs defense went from 3rd/29 to 29th/29. They were 9 points worse per 100 possessions. The following season when he returned, the defense improved 13 points per 100 possessions. His defensive impact vastly outpaced his box score value and you can argue that at this point in his career, he was right there with anyone else in the history of the league for most valuable defensive players. I have a hard time believing that Bill Russell ever peaked higher than David Robinson for instance since Robinson had such a strong offensive game while providing at least 95% of the same value on defense.

3. 2010/11 Dirk Nowitzki- In 2 strong RAPM samples, he ranked incredibly high finishing 1st overall in the NBAShotCharts site which spanned from 2010-2022 and he also ranked #3 in the 97-14 sample on Yahoo behind 2 LeBron years and one year from Tim Duncan. The Mavericks were approximately a -6 with him on the bench in both the regular season and postseason and yet, he led them to sweep Kobe and Pau in the first round and beat a superteam of Wade, Bosh, and LeBron that many thought was the best team ever established at the time.

Weren’t you higher on Kawhi than this in the past?
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #14 

Post#25 » by iggymcfrack » Sat Jul 30, 2022 11:40 pm

No-more-rings wrote:
iggymcfrack wrote:Just gonna get a vote in even though I'm not married to my third choice.

1. 2021/22 Nikola Jokic- Best regular season ever by PER and BPM, 5th best postseason ever by PER with impact numbers that dominate the competition much more than the box score metrics. Incredible playmaking as Jokic combines the best passing from a big man ever with a surprisingly low amount of time holding the ball for such an offensive hub. He also has the highest RAPTOR since that started being tracked in 2013/14.

2. 1995/96 David Robinson- Led the league in PER in both the regular season AND postseason while anchoring the 3rd best defense in the league. Early impact metrics had him neck and neck with Michael Jordan for best player in the league. When Robinson missed the vast majority of the following season, the Spurs defense went from 3rd/29 to 29th/29. They were 9 points worse per 100 possessions. The following season when he returned, the defense improved 13 points per 100 possessions. His defensive impact vastly outpaced his box score value and you can argue that at this point in his career, he was right there with anyone else in the history of the league for most valuable defensive players. I have a hard time believing that Bill Russell ever peaked higher than David Robinson for instance since Robinson had such a strong offensive game while providing at least 95% of the same value on defense.

3. 2010/11 Dirk Nowitzki- In 2 strong RAPM samples, he ranked incredibly high finishing 1st overall in the NBAShotCharts site which spanned from 2010-2022 and he also ranked #3 in the 97-14 sample on Yahoo behind 2 LeBron years and one year from Tim Duncan. The Mavericks were approximately a -6 with him on the bench in both the regular season and postseason and yet, he led them to sweep Kobe and Pau in the first round and beat a superteam of Wade, Bosh, and LeBron that many thought was the best team ever established at the time.

Weren’t you higher on Kawhi than this in the past?


He's one of those guys like Chris Paul where he was really good for several years, but it's hard to select a peak season. 2016 was a well-balanced year, but he didn't reach the highest heights and he had a sort of mediocre series against the Thunder, 2017 he was absolutely incredible regular season and postseason, but he had a playoff injury and only played 3 quarters against the Warriors. 2019 he led the Raptors to a ring, but without the effort through the regular season and Lowry had better impact stats. Kawhi was the person that I was most closely debating with Dirk for the last spot though.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #14 

Post#26 » by Narigo » Sun Jul 31, 2022 12:26 am

Surprised Mikan is not getting mention yet. Thought he will be in the top15-20 based on his two way impact
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #14 

Post#27 » by trex_8063 » Sun Jul 31, 2022 1:12 am

Narigo wrote:Surprised Mikan is not getting mention yet. Thought he will be in the top15-20 based on his two way impact


He was mentioned. I believe he even had some votes earlier (70sFan, maybe penbeast0 too); they just haven't been active this thread [maybe last, too??? not sure].

For me, the questions regarding era are just too big. I realize he was basically the best in the world at that time, but the game was so young on the big stage.

As an example event: in the city where I live, about 3 years ago there was a dodgeball event, where the best teams from various cities [Canada, USA, Europe] had come to play/compete. It was free to go and watch, so I went and watched a match or two.

There were fairly ordinary athletes [like me] playing. The best player in the building wasn't any sort of mind-blowing talent. It's just not that popular a sport, so he was the biggest fish in a very very small pond.
I'm guessing that if the sport and a professional dodgeball league took off in popularity, within a decade or two those low-level athletes [like me] would be weeded out of the league to make room for superior players/athletes (EDIT: and that "biggest fish" would now be a mid or mid-high sized fish).

I'm not saying Mikan himself was a low-level athlete/player.
I'm not saying every OTHER player of his era was a low-level athlete/player.
I'm merely saying I have serious apprehensions about the overall strength of that era........Enough that it's hard for him to gain serious traction in my consideration anywhere in the top 20-25.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #14 

Post#28 » by f4p » Sun Jul 31, 2022 1:20 am

eminence wrote:I think a primary Chris Paul comparison is selling Oscars scoring game well short, off the top of the head I believe he has the 2nd highest TSA perimeter peak (behind '16 Curry), while Chris Paul is more than a wee bit lower (392.5 vs 163.6). I believe Oscar has more seasons above 300 than any other player.

Basically, he's arguably the best perimeter scorer in history (which I would argue means he's the best scorer in history, but fair to my big man lovers out there). In fact, I think he has the best argument.


This is why i like this board. TS Add came along on BBRef years after I had already looked at Oscar's numbers a lot, so I haven't been back since to look at it. He really is incredible. 7 seasons of 300+ and 2 more of 290+. Steph only has 2, which should indicate how incredible 9 seasons is. Maybe I have overcorrected on the Big O's stats for pace adjustment and not noticed things like the incredible efficiency and good team offensive results. His playoff numbers still give me a little pause. Some good numbers in some years but not consistently so. Arguably kept the 1972 Bucks from winning, but he was older by then. I will say the Playoff SRS work I did recently didn't help Oscar. He was unfortunate to only have 3 pre-Kareem series as an SRS favorite, but he lost 2 of them, which is rough for the "he was unlucky" argument. You have to capitalize on your few chances to get more sympathy (the Hakeem argument).

edit: also, I just noticed BBRef has all of the league average values in the Adjusted Shooting table. I don't believe that was there before, which is a huge help.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #14 

Post#29 » by eminence » Sun Jul 31, 2022 2:33 am

LukaTheGOAT wrote:
eminence wrote:I haven't voted yet, and don't intend to regularly, but if you still need a tiebreaker when you next go to count I'll go with '64 Oscar here. These two bigs I think have relevant enough PO offense issues for me to bump them just a little bit lower down the list. Oscar I think still has an okay case for offensive GOAT in his prime (LeBron has probably left him behind for career value at this point), in particular I think it's overlooked that he has a case for best scorer in NBA history (not at peak, hail King Curry). I've never had any particular problems with Oscars D.


I'm just curious what would be his argument over Kareem or West as a scorer? Do you think he potentially had a more consistent scoring prime?


An interesting pair to point to, and more easily to make the comp to as they were certainly closer in timeframe than some of the other competition (I expected MJ/LeBron). West is particularly easy as their careers completely overlap.

I don't necessarily think he has a clear case over West based on ability and think it's more than fine to break either way on that question. West known for being a bit more explosive and having a bit more range, Oscar a bit more of a bully, perhaps slightly more turnover resistant. The results were very very similar for the two. Oscars most clear edge was simply availability (which would matter for a career list, less so for a peak ranking of scoring ability).

From '62-70 (clear prime scoring seasons for each, just calculated the TS% real quick, so let me know if any errors):
Oscar - 681 games, 29.1 pts/g, 57.3 TS%
West - 607 games, 29.3 pts/g, 56.0 TS%

Playoffs:
Oscar - 39 games, 29.7 pts/g, 56.6 TS%
West - 108 games, 31.8 pts/g, 55.7 TS%

Vs Kareem, it's a personal strong preference for perimeter scorers when forced to rank the 'best' scorers comprehensively (you could also hypothetically split it into ball-handling scorers and non-ball handling scorers). I really see perimeter/interior scoring largely as two different roles (with perimeter being the generally more valuable one), and so comparing them directly is not something I'd currently do in great detail (similar to how it's hard to compare Moses rebounding impact to Ray Allens shooting).
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #14 

Post#30 » by f4p » Sun Jul 31, 2022 3:48 am

1. 2017 Kawhi (alternate 2019)

This is an excellent regular season with a monster playoffs where he showed that his playoff resilience didn't even care about facing the greatest roster ever, only to be taken out on one of the more famous cheap shots in recent memory. A full WCF would make people like this season more and I can't blame him for a cheap shot injury. 2017 Kawhi wins on lots of teams that had guys who will be listed above him here:

Kawhi's 31.5 PER is 13th all time based on 100 MP and 8th all time for multi-series playoffs. His WS/48 of .314 is 9th all time based on 100 MP and 6th all time for multi-series playoffs. And that's with 1954 mikan included above him. Even with very generous 100 MP and 20 PPG limits, his TS% of 67.2% is 24th all-time. For 200 MP and 24 PPG, it jumps to 6th, and one of the people ahead of him is himself.

If this was a one year phenomenom, I might understand the hesitancy. But "Kawhi puts up huge playoff performance" is not a one year phenomenom. If we are truly talking about peaks, there aren't many higher than 2017 playoffs Kawhi.

2. 1983 Moses Malone (alternate 1982)

Moses may not be this board's cup of tea. He doesn't play an aesthetically pleasing type of basketball. He doesn't always find the open man or protect the rim. He doesn't do the things impact metrics love. Just give him the ball and get out of the way. Get out of his way even more if a rebound was to be had. I tend to think of the NBA as much simpler and more primitive the further back you go. You guard your guy, he guards you. Possessions weren't valued like now. People weren't breaking down film and doing analytics on their team strategy. Sometimes an ass-kicker like Moses was what you needed (and sometimes you still do).
I just watched a highlight from Game 2 in 1981 against the Lakers, which the Lakers actually won. Kareem played well but he never looked like he wanted to guard Moses. Malone would get the ball against whoever in the post and, even if a double came, he just got to the basket. They didn't show a lot of rebounds, but Moses did get a few impressive blocks. There's nothing pretty about his game except the result. Anyway, back to the regularly scheduled copy and paste...

Fo' Fo' Fo'. Led the league in regular season PER and WS48 while putting up 24.5 ppg and 15.3 rpg and winning MVP. Then led the playoffs in PER (25.7) and WS48 (0.260) while putting up 26 ppg and 15.8 rpg on 58.7 TS%. In the Finals, he demolished (35 year old) Kareem with 25.8 ppg and 18.0 rpg in a sweep. I was actually just looking at this season to see where I might put it and then convinced myself when I looked at the rest of the Sixers in the playoffs. After Moses at 25.7 PER and 0.260 WS48, the next highest was Maurice Cheeks at 17.3 PER and Bobby Jones at 0.164 WS48 (Dr J really fell off in the playoffs). That puts Moses as far and away the best player in arguably the most dominant playoff run ever. One that he called before it happened just to make it more impressive. This isn't Shaq with Kobe or KD/Steph all having each other's backs in dominant 1-loss runs (and as far as I know, Moses didn't have Dr. J injure anybody to keep his team from losing more than once in the playoffs). Here are 6 dominant title runs I could think of off the top of my head and the separation between the #1 and #2 player on those teams, sorted by WS48 differential:

Image


We can see that for the 2001 Lakers, 2017 Warriors, and 1999 Spurs, the #1 and #2 were practically identical. Except for BPM, Moses ends up there with MJ as being easily the best player on his team. And for what it's worth, BPM had Moses as the 4th best Sixer in the regular season, almost 3 behind the team leader, so that shows how much more it liked him in the postseason that he led the team. This may have been a guy who joined a stacked team, but it ended up a one man wrecking crew.

Also, 1982 Moses averaged 31.1/14.7 playing on the second slowest paced team in the league, with only a 97 pace.

Moses gets disrespected enough on all-time lists, a 3-time MVP with a side hustle of smacking Kareem around in the playoffs shouldn't get the same on peak lists.

3. 2006 Dwyane Wade (alternate 2009)

I'm a floor raising kind of guy I guess, which doesn't seem typical on this board. People who have everything put on them and come up big in the biggest moments with little to no margin of error impress me more than ceiling raisers putting the finishing touches on an already great team. It just seems like a more common problem to solve throughout NBA history than what to do with all this extra talent. Wade had a very good 27/7/6 regular season as a 3rd year player but obviously this is about the playoffs. On one of the jankiest looking title rosters you'll ever see, on a team where Antoine Walker played the 2nd most playoff minutes and White Chocolate played the 4th most, and Shaq was often getting outplayed by Zo, Wade saved his best moments for the biggest series.

Shot 61.7% in the ECF (68.4 TS%!!) against a still very good Detroit team that had just held Lebron to 81 ppg in the previous series. 26.7/5.5/5.2 looks even better when you realize the pace was 83.8. And then of course there are the Finals. Did he shoot 2 to 3 to 40 more free throws than he should have? Sure, but free throw totals were pretty elevated that year so his totals are only sort of absurd. Put up 34.7 ppg, 7.8 rpg, and 2.7 spg on 57.2 TS% while maybe leading the best overall Finals comeback ever. Weirdly, the only team that has probably come closer to losing the Finals before winning is also a team with Wade in the 2013 Finals (with 3rd probably also including Wade in the 2011 Finals). The Heat were down 2-0 and down 13 in the 4th quarter of Game 3. That's dangerously close to "1, 2, 3 Cancun!" time and instead Wade just went crazy and put up 42, 36, 43, and 36 in the next 4 games. In a series with a pace of 90! With 3 of the games decided by 1, 2, and 3. In other words, turn those 42/43 games into just 39 point games and the Mavs are celebrating. Efficiency may not be crazy but on that volume with such a weird, offensively limited roster around him against a very solid defense, this is perhaps the best Finals performance ever by anybody not named Lebron or Jordan. It's a title snatched out of thin air that very few players can say they would have been able to pull off. This is a peaks project and it's hard to peak much higher.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #14 

Post#31 » by ardee » Sun Jul 31, 2022 8:22 am

1. 1977 Bill Walton

Has everyone forgotten about him? In 1977 and 1978, here's the Blazers' record with and without him:

1977 Walton healthy: 44-21
1977 Walton hurt: 5-12

1978 Walton healthy: 48-10
1978 Walton hurt: 10-14

74.7% win rate while he's healthy, and 36.5% while he's hurt. And that's over a pretty big sample size.

Quite honestly I see him on a similar level to Russell, whom I have at 9. Just incredible defensive impact, if you watch the Finals against the Sixers he has the defensive equivalent of a scorer having a 20 point quarter. The commentators were freaking out and screaming "they cannot find a way to score on Bill Walton!"

I think him and Steph are pretty debatable.

2. 2008 Kobe Bryant (HM: 2006)

I've spoken about Kobe's raw impact quite a bit in different threads. In this season specifically, he led the Lakers to a 7.34 SRS with just 27 games of Pau and 35 games of Bynum. Odom was the only other player on that team who could generate much of his own offense. The rest of the rotation consisting of Fisher, Vladimir Radmanovic, Farmar, Vujacic and Turiaf doesn't exactly scream a 7.3 SRS cast.

On top of that, he put together a Jordan-esque Playoff run. 32-6-6 on 60% TS against 3 50 win teams in the Western conference, including a 6.9 SRS Jazz team and a -5.7 defensively Spurs team. His Finals weren't anything to write home about but honestly were not any worse than Jordan against similarly good defensive teams (the '93 Knicks for example).

3. 2009 Dwyane Wade (HM: 2006)

Him and Kobe at their peaks are fairly close as players. I do think Kobe was more impactful though, when you look at the 2006 Lakers vs the 2009 Heat by SRS given the similar supporting casts. Wade was likely better defensively but that's canceled out by Kobe's superior portability given shooting and off-ball play.

Next would be Dirk, KG and Robinson for me, then we get into Oscar and West.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #14 

Post#32 » by AEnigma » Mon Aug 1, 2022 1:27 pm

Woah, dead thread. :o

I went back and read through the 2019 threads for players in contention here. Honestly, not as helpful as I would have liked. A lot of wasted pages devoted to Curry quibbles, which does not surprise me but did annoyingly cut into real discussion of other players.

One page did stick out to me for David Robinson: https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=1884057&start=40

I doubt will affect anyone already voting for him, but could be worth reading through for more skeptical others. To be fully honest, though, I just wanted to bump this thread up; not even fifteen peaks in and we cannot go past two pages of discussion. :cry:
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #14 

Post#33 » by Ron Swanson » Mon Aug 1, 2022 2:05 pm

1964 Oscar Robertson: Really think this is one of the most impressive MVP years ever, sandwiched in-between the dominance of Russell/Wilt. Just a smidge below a GOAT offensive season contender, but clearly his best postseason in combination with some truly ahead-of-it's-time efficiency from the lead guard spot (31/11/10 on 57.6% TS, 27.6 PER, .276 WS/48). Hard to fault him too much for losing against the Russell Celtics in the playoffs, but I also can't completely hand-wave how his efficiency and play-making volume suffered mightily in that series.

1966 Jerry West: Admittedly it was hard for me to pick a West year ('65 and '69 got consideration), but ultimately decided on his most complete RS/PS season. 31/7/6 on 57.3% TS, 24.6 PER, .256 WS/48, but what's pretty remarkable is that he both upped his scoring volume (34.2) AND his efficiency (58.1% TS) in the postseason. Same concerns I have with Oscar seem to apply to West. I'm not particularly high on West's defense (although definitely better than Oscar), and while I actually might prefer his scoring efficiency/resiliency over a lot of offensive perimeter greats, I don't think his play-making is as scalable.

2022 Nikola Jokic: Honestly, this might end up being too low when we look back on these rankings in a few years (I think peak Giannis will also be reevaluated/revisited in much the same way). 2022 Jokic is up there with any all-time individual RS going by the numbers. 27/13/8 on absurd efficiency (66% TS), .296 WS/48, 13.7 BPM, and the #1 highest PER ever recorded. Don't think you can penalize him too much for getting gentleman's swept by the eventual champs, as he still put up a near equally bonkers stat line in the postseason (31/13/5 on 64% TS). I do think there's some concerns about the postseason defensive metrics that bear monitoring though, as this is now the 3rd consecutive postseason where Denver has been a historically bad defense when Jokic is on the floor according to the lineup data (119.0, 124.7, 125.4). I do think this highlights and casts some skepticism on the RS metrics that rate Joker so highly on the defensive end (RPM lists him as the 6th best defensive player, and RAPTOR rates him as the 2nd best defender only behind Gobert).
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #14 

Post#34 » by 70sFan » Mon Aug 1, 2022 5:03 pm

I finally found enough time to come back with a vote, although Russell's death makes me less focused on making long, in-depth posts. Instead, I will make it short, but I hope it will be enough to count my vote:

1. 1949/50 George Mikan
(1950/51 George Mikan)
2. 1965/66 Jerry West
(1969/70 Jerry West)
(1967/68 Jerry West)
3. 1962/63 Oscar Robertson
(1963/64 Oscar Robertson)

HM: 2021/22 Nikola Jokic

Mikan is my 1st choice, because I don't see any other player reaching his level of dominance. We have to adjust that for significantly weaker competition, but still - I don't care about time machine argument. He did everything he could against the best competition he faced. Although some might view him as some kind of slow, lumbering oaf who relied heavily on his size, I don't view him that way from what I've seen. He was a very smart passer with soft shooting touch and he seemed to have a very strong defensive impact (although this one likely wouldn't translate to the same degree as his offense).

To look at prime Mikan footage, here is a small sample (by the way, you can the ball being far from round in this game, something to consider when we talk about shooting performance of these players):



Here is another nice Mikan play that shows his high level vision as a post playmaker (one of my favorite ones):



Why Mikan over Jokic? For two main reasons:

1. Mikan was excellent defender for his era, while Jokic struggles a lot in the postseason defensively. It may be unfair for Jokic, because I'm afraid Mikan would have similar problems on defense in 2020s, but as it was - Mikan was a very impactful defender who was quite innovative with his approach (not to the excent Russell was, but still).
2. Mikan was more dominant against his competition vs Jokic and he was unquestionably the best player in the world during his peak. His postseason dominance is a key factor to put him ahead of Jokic (and Robinson).


West is my 2nd choice, because I view him as top 4 postseason scorer ever (along with Kareem/Jordan/LeBron) and he added ATG defensive impact at guard position, which is a rarity among GOAT-level offensive players. West was just relentless on the court, but he was also extremely portable across schemes and eras. He's excellent shooter of course, but people overstate how big part of his game it was. He was excellent athlete, who attacked defenses inside more than any other guard of his era. He could also play next to ball-dominant players (Baylor, Wilt) without diminishing results. He was excellent off-ball and on-ball creator. You can't find a more versatile point guard than him in NBA history.



Oscar is the third choice just ahead of Jokic, because I view them comparable on offense, but I don't have similar concerns with Oscar's defense. Robertson was a very solid defender from what I've seen (not on West level though) and his offense was just picture perfect. He was perfect offense player - built like a tank, excellent size, very soft shooting touch, nice handles and ATG passing vision. He could manipulate the pace of the game like very few players in NBA history (Magic is the only one that could rival him). His midrange game was also extremely resiliant in postseason, despite facing Russell and Wilt teams time and time again.

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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #14 

Post#35 » by LA Bird » Mon Aug 1, 2022 6:55 pm

Voting for this round will close in around 18 hours. There are 5 players in contention for first place (64 Oscar, 66 West, 94 Robinson, 17 Kawhi, 22 Jokic) so every vote counts.

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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #14 

Post#36 » by DraymondGold » Mon Aug 1, 2022 7:08 pm

1. 94 David Robinson
1b. 95 David Robinson
2. 1966 Jerry West
2b. 1969 Jerry West, 2c. 1970
3. 1964 Oscar Robertson
HM: 2022 Jokic.
Then Kobe/KD/Wade/Dirk.

DraymondGold wrote:Reasoning:
Don't particularly feel like a long post. In short:

A) Robinson clearly has the best impact data, and despite others' disagreement, I don't feel like the impact metrics are biased enough by era/teammates/fit/etc. to put him lower. Defensively, he's the only remaining person in Tier 1/2 of my GOAT defenders (along with Russell obviously, Hakeem, Duncan, KG, Wilt not in order). I love his rim protection, big man man defense, and help defense. His ability to raise regular season defenses is like a rich-man's Gobert, but I see his perimeter mobility as less of an liability (at least in that era). The fact that he was the center on the GOAT Defensive Dynasty of the modern NBA (both statistically and by the eye test) also says a lot, and while credit goes to Tim Duncan for that, I'm not sure there's anybody left who could do this well defensively in that era (e.g. Giannis' rim protection isn't on the same level).
Offensively, he's a great scorer (though not the same level as others in this tier), and great off-ball player. He's a great first option in the regular season (trex_8063 joked that he was basically asked to be Russell and Jordan in the regular season haha), and while this scheme alongside his poor fitting/low-value teammates did become more vulnerable in the playoffs, I see this as an issue of fit/situation, not an inherent limit to Robinson. He performed much better and showed more resilience as a defensive 1 and offensive 1b/2, which is a fairly common archetype in history on championship teams (Thinking Basketball estimates ~50% of championship teams have this archetype). He basically never got to play with an all-star guard, despite having one of the best big-man off-ball games. That lob threat would be legendary.

Edit: I recently saw one stat that further supports the idea that Robinson's atrocious teammates were pulling his value down in the playoffs, and that he would have far better impact if he had a better team around him: from 98-01, with a better team / offensive fit, despite clearly not being at his peak, Robinson had the highest multi-year playoff on/off of any high-minute player. Ever.
98-01 Robinson's at +25.1 on/off (per 48), while 00-04 Shaq is second all the way dow at +21. [source: thinking basketball's latest Jordan +/- video]

As for 94 vs 95, I'm open to discussion. There's a trend of all-time players having a better regular season early on in their career (with their more athletic motor), and then losing athleticism but gaining enough experience/skill/BBIQ to offset their lost motor and have a better playoff performance when they're older. This trend isn't universal, but it does raise a question of whether this is the case for Robinson in 94 (clearly best regular season) vs 95/96 (likely better postseason). I see 96 as enough of a drop in athleticism to put it below 94. In the film I've seen, I haven't been convinced yet that 95 showed sufficient skill/experience improvement (compared to say 09 vs 13 LeBron's visible growth in skillset, with his off-ball game, shooting, post-game, and improved passing). Not for certain, just the way I'm leaning now. If anyone wants to do any film analysis of 95 vs 94, that would probably be the way to convince me otherwise.

We've already debated Robinson vs Giannis too much, so no need to re-sour the discussion with that.
The similarities with Walton are highly interesting, and not lost on me. Walton's one of the few players ever to have a comparable defensive impact, his passing is clearly better, and his shooting was (odd but) ahead of its time. Like with all players, each comes with some uncertainty, but I have higher uncertainty for Walton, given how short his healthy peak was. Probably the single greatest loss in basketball history in terms of greatness we didn't get to see due to injury.
One poster mentioned that Walton's peak has the best single-season WOWY on record. Wow! That does raise an eyebrow, but I'm not (yet) convinced for two reasons. 1) WOWY Biases. WOWY tends to like offensive quarterbacks (i.e. playmakers who run the offense > finishers who make the last shot) and defensive centerpieces (i.e. high volume defensive rim protectors). Walton's basically the perfect archetype to be highly rated in this stat. Is there some truth to this? I'd say so... I do personally value offensive playmaking > finishing more than the average RealGM person, and WOWY does support this. But this may also be a slight systematic overrating by WOWY... it can be harder to replace a playmaker who runs the offense or a defensive rim protector for just a few games without totally changing your offensive/defensive scheme. 2) Robinson is still Tier 1 in WOWY, even if his best season is a hair behind Walton's.

B) West:
The next tier will be the hardest to order. Now that players' imperfections are getting bigger, we have to start making some difficult comparisons. I might end up changing this vote in the next round (maybe for Walton, Kobe, KD, Oscar, or Jokic). Here's my thought process currently:

Skill wise, Jerry West looks great. He's very likely the best scorer of the bunch, with a fantastic driving game, incredible foul-drawing ability, and a shooting touch that was ahead of his time. He also improved his scoring in the playoffs more than any other star here. In terms of playmaking, he definitely ins't at the level of Oscar, Walton, or Jokic. That said, I don't see it below Kobe, and it's probably above KD (and other players like Moses, Erving, Wade). His defense is also often heralded as the best of the guards and wings we're considering.

Statistically, West seems lower in the group. So what made me pick him?
-BPM: While West does have a lower BPM than many of his competitors, it was far harder to gain separation in BPM as a 1960s guard. BPM could be underrating both Oscar and West. Further, BPM may be less effectively capturing West's defensive value, without any sort of steal/block input. Much of the BPM gap gets closed if we just look at Offensive BPM, and Defensive BPM has him as the worst defender of the guard/wing group (again because of the missing steal/steal numbers), which is certainly not true.
-WOWY: West performs a lot better here. He's 2nd all time in prime un-regressed WOWY and 11th all time in prime regressed WOWYR (which is like RAPM to the un-regressed APM). This stat puts him above all the other wings/guards except Oscar. While Oscar does pull ahead in prime WOWY, if we constrain it to 5-year peak WOWY, West pulls ahead of Oscar (5 years gives us stabler numbers). It's also worth noting that WOWY tends to favor players who are quarterbacks of the offense or defense (e.g. primary play-makers or primary rim protectors) over finishers like West. The fact that West gets this close to Oscar, despite Oscar playing an archetype that is arguably favored by WOWY, makes me wonder whether West is better.
-WS/48: Sticking with the comparison to Oscar, while Oscar is ahead in 1-year regular season WS/48, they're actually tied in 2-year regular season WS/48. The gap shrinks in the playoffs, and West is again ahead in multi-year playoff WS/48.

Philosophically, I also like many of West's characteristics.
He's quite scalable, certainly more than Oscar, Kobe, and Wade. He's single best shooter of the 1960s. As a combo-guard, he could play both on and off ball. And as I've said, he's also arguably the best defender of the bunch. These are all scalable skills. He's also arguably the most resilient; nobody improves their scoring more in the playoffs. I'm definitely open to the idea that the one-number metrics underrate his defense (specifically BPM and WS/48), especially when lacking even the most basic defensive stats in the 60s. I also see him as someone who would clearly win the time-machine test. Jerry West played in the single worst era for a perimeter guard. Today, his all-time shooting would improve, as would the value of his perimeter defense.

Is it possible I'm biased, with the philosophical argument making me too favorable of his worse data? Absolutely possible. Like I said, I'm still figuring this next tier out, so feel free to push back if you disagree. I'm open to reconsidering :D


C) Oscar. Like I mentioned before, uncertainty gets higher the further down the list we go. I could see arguments for plenty of other players. I went with Oscar, as he's probably the single best offensive player until Magic/Bird (maybe Kareem too, but he's a GOAT candidate so not much shame in being behind a legend). He's like Chris Paul, if Chris Paul stayed healthy in the playoffs, played in a much harder era for guards, and still showed all-time impact. His WOWY score is also Tier 1 near the top of the list. He's certainly the best passer and playmaker of the wings/guards (over Kobe/Wade/Durant/Erving). He's also clearly a Top 3 scorer of the 60s (he averaged over 8 rTS% for across a 9-year prime!). On defense, his teams were not great, but I'd argue that's from having teams that over-focused on offense-first lineups rather than a fault of Oscar the point position. There's plenty of stories then and by posters today saying he was a small positive on defense, at a minimum. The limited film I've been able to find on him supports this, showing him bother opponents and of course help the possession game as one of the best rebounding guards ever. While I'd suggest rebounding tends to get somewhat overrated in the modern era (at least by casual fans, see Russel Westbrook's MVP), and while we don't have either TRB% or Reb/75 for Oscar's peak, he's still clearly Tier 1 in Reb/36 among guards.

HM: same as before. Jokic, Kobe, Wade, Walton, KD, Giannis, not in order.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #14 

Post#37 » by DraymondGold » Mon Aug 1, 2022 7:14 pm

70sFan wrote:I finally found enough time to come back with a vote, although Russell's death makes me less focused on making long, in-depth posts. Instead, I will make it short, but I hope it will be enough to count my vote:

1. 1949/50 George Mikan
(1950/51 George Mikan)
2. 1965/66 Jerry West
(1969/70 Jerry West)
(1967/68 Jerry West)
3. 1962/63 Oscar Robertson
(1963/64 Oscar Robertson)

HM: 2021/22 Nikola Jokic

Mikan is my 1st choice, because I don't see any other player reaching his level of dominance. We have to adjust that for significantly weaker competition, but still - I don't care about time machine argument. He did everything he could against the best competition he faced. Although some might view him as some kind of slow, lumbering oaf who relied heavily on his size, I don't view him that way from what I've seen. He was a very smart passer with soft shooting touch and he seemed to have a very strong defensive impact (although this one likely wouldn't translate to the same degree as his offense).

To look at prime Mikan footage, here is a small sample (by the way, you can the ball being far from round in this game, something to consider when we talk about shooting performance of these players):



Here is another nice Mikan play that shows his high level vision as a post playmaker (one of my favorite ones):



Why Mikan over Jokic? For two main reasons:

1. Mikan was excellent defender for his era, while Jokic struggles a lot in the postseason defensively. It may be unfair for Jokic, because I'm afraid Mikan would have similar problems on defense in 2020s, but as it was - Mikan was a very impactful defender who was quite innovative with his approach (not to the excent Russell was, but still).
2. Mikan was more dominant against his competition vs Jokic and he was unquestionably the best player in the world during his peak. His postseason dominance is a key factor to put him ahead of Jokic (and Robinson).


West is my 2nd choice, because I view him as top 4 postseason scorer ever (along with Kareem/Jordan/LeBron) and he added ATG defensive impact at guard position, which is a rarity among GOAT-level offensive players. West was just relentless on the court, but he was also extremely portable across schemes and eras. He's excellent shooter of course, but people overstate how big part of his game it was. He was excellent athlete, who attacked defenses inside more than any other guard of his era. He could also play next to ball-dominant players (Baylor, Wilt) without diminishing results. He was excellent off-ball and on-ball creator. You can't find a more versatile point guard than him in NBA history.



Oscar is the third choice just ahead of Jokic, because I view them comparable on offense, but I don't have similar concerns with Oscar's defense. Robertson was a very solid defender from what I've seen (not on West level though) and his offense was just picture perfect. He was perfect offense player - built like a tank, excellent size, very soft shooting touch, nice handles and ATG passing vision. He could manipulate the pace of the game like very few players in NBA history (Magic is the only one that could rival him). His midrange game was also extremely resiliant in postseason, despite facing Russell and Wilt teams time and time again.

Hiya 70sFan! People usually favor Career Oscar > Career West, which makes sense given West's injury history. Among other analysts not on RealGM, people usually switch for best year, taking Peak West > Peak Oscar. However, on this board, people have historically seemed unwilling to make the switch for peak (e.g. looking at previous projects) -- we're among the minority taking peak West over peak Oscar. I wonder why?

Also, quick question if you have time: Do reason for why you favor 1963 Oscar over 1964? 1964 feels like the most common year people pick, but you're certainly one of the experts given all the film analysis you've done, so I'd love to hear your perspective on why you go against the grain here.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #14 

Post#38 » by Proxy » Mon Aug 1, 2022 7:22 pm

Damn I didn't have time to look into the stuff I was going to research but my ballot for this round is


14. 1977 Bill Walton

(Explained in previous threads), possible his Blazers WOWY indicators overstate what his impact would be on a random team but i'm a big fan of his portability and scalability and like I said before there was some reason to believe he was a very good impact player on a per minute basis past his peak on the Celtics.

15. 1966 Jerry West (1968, 1965, 1969, 1970)
(Very similar in value indicators to Oscar but from what i've seen looks very marginally worse, and I mentioned them before in multiple previous threads). I have them next and neck as players personally, but also those measurements inherently favor Oscar's type of playstyle more due to his ball dominance and I do think Jerry's game both scales up more comfortably with better talent and he had better IRL proof of reducing diminishing returns when surrounded with more talent IMO.

I didn't have the time to compare his performances in certain circumstances to Oscar's but at face value West still looks to me like an arguably top 5 PS scorer ever when adjusting for opponent defenses/teammates quality(like in a ScoreVal approach) and idt see too much reasoning to believe his playmaking quality dipped too much, also being the superior off ball player. The higher versatility on both ends gives me a slight edge on most teams for this comparison but I might still prefer Oscar to floor raise a weaker team to contention, both were just incredible people man.

16. 1964 Oscar Robertson (1965) (1963) (Explained in multiple previous threads but I could always copy paste if needed)

Thinking about having Jokić, Robinson, Kobe, KD, Wade, Dirk or AD next(grown a little bit more skeptical on Julius because even some Julius defenders i've talked to acknowledge his value in many different situations might not rly be nearly as close to what it was for the 1976 Nets and that's something I value, but i'd still consider him in this tier), i'll try to look a bit more into Mikan or Hawkins soon as well
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #14 

Post#39 » by capfan33 » Mon Aug 1, 2022 7:34 pm

I think that West and Oscar are very close but I've always liked West's skillset more and his dynamism.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #14 

Post#40 » by 70sFan » Mon Aug 1, 2022 7:35 pm

DraymondGold wrote:Hiya 70sFan! People usually favor Career Oscar > Career West, which makes sense given West's injury history. Among other analysts not on RealGM, people usually switch for best year, taking Peak West > Peak Oscar. However, on this board, people have historically seemed unwilling to make the switch for peak (e.g. looking at previous projects) -- we're among the minority taking peak West over peak Oscar. I wonder why?

To be honest, I don't think there is any particular reason for that. Oscar and West were extremely close peak-wise and Robertson did have a slightly better reputation in the 1960s. Maybe it's because of Oscar's higher boxscore production, or slightly better offenses anchored.

I have them basically tied, so I don't think it's wrong to go either way.

Also, quick question if you have time: Do reason for why you favor 1963 Oscar over 1964? 1964 feels like the most common year people pick, but you're certainly one of the experts given all the film analysis you've done, so I'd love to hear your perspective on why you go against the grain here.

Unfortunately, I haven't seen enough mid-1960s Royals games to make a clear separation between these seasons. I went with 1963 because of what Oscar did against Boston Celtics in 1963 ECF:

33.4/12.4/8.6 on 58 TS% against one of the best defensive teams of all-time, losing in a close 7 games series.

It could be the best losing performance ever against Russell's Celtics (1965 Wilt and 1966+1969 West are up there).

Most people go with 1964 because of MVP and Royals record, but Cincy improvement mostly came from defensive end, not offense.

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