Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #21 - 2016-17 Kawhi Leonard

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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #21 

Post#21 » by AEnigma » Wed Aug 24, 2022 5:26 am

Proxy wrote:4. 2011 Dirk Nowitzki (2010, 2006)
While I don't feel as strongly about him as a on-ball playmaker that I do Durant - I think he is still a much worse passer in those circumstances and doesn't have the same dribble penetration that it's limiting enough. He makes up for stuff like this a bit with his spacing/screening value - I think he leveraged his scoring gravity the best this year coupled with a more refined post game and marginally improved passing, and his superb turnover economy+scoring efficiency paired with his massive halfcourt scoring frequency allowed his teams to set up more in the half court defensively by toning down transition offense frequency - so there's some global defense value there. He's probably a more crisp, efficient decision maker in general than Durant when it comes to picking his spots to score and pass, though i'd also say he's more reserved and takes less risks so there's some tradeoff there. My main limiting factor is my lower confidence in his defensive value team-to-team.

Well put.

Had not too actively considered it before, but the 2011 Mavericks supporting cast is kind-of similar to the pre-Moses 76ers. Kidd and Cheeks… Jet and Toney… Marion and Bobby… Chandler and what Dawkins and Caldwell could have been if they fused :lol:
MyUniBroDavis wrote:Some people are clearly far too overreliant on data without context and look at good all in one or impact numbers and get wowed by that rather than looking at how a roster is actually built around a player
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #21 

Post#22 » by DraymondGold » Wed Aug 24, 2022 7:24 am

Since Kawhi's being mentioned, I figured I'd do some film analysis for him.

2017 Kawhi Film Analysis: Spurs vs Warriors, 1st half Game 1


*Apologies for the terrible quality video. It's the best I could find :( The Summary can be found at the bottom

__________

10:15 offense
hard to see, but draws the defense, does a basic kickout pass to 3 point shooter

10:45 offense
off-ball movement. nothing crazy, doesn’t contribute much though

11:15 offense
Cuts after teammate passes, makes midrange pull-up

2 possessions (defense, offense) not much)

13:18 defense
Switches from KD to Curry to Thompson. Curry gets open, Kawhi makes an okay closeout, then Curry makes it. I wonder if he could have reacted quicker with better floor mapping, rather than starting to run after the ball was already in the air. Still, zoning up Curry/Klay off ball is a hard matchup for anyone

13:56 o
Good off-ball movement, but poor passing leads to turnover

18:15 o
Past 2/3 possessions he’s just been resting on offense. He does provide spacing value though

18:20 d
Gets closer to lane to possibly provide help rim defense, but that gets him out of position to guard KD. As he’s recovering, KD gets right by him for the made shot

18:28 o
Kawhi pick and roll. It’s awkward and ineffective, both from the screener and from Kawhi’s dribbling (which isn’t close enough to the screener to gain separation from the defender). They try it 3 times, don’t get anything, Kawhi is doubled, okay pass to the midrange shot. It counts but this dribbling / passing limitation shows the concerns with Kawhi as an offensive creator

19:47 d
Kawhi rebound, not contested but he was in the right position

19:54 o
The screen is better this tkme, and Kawhi thinks about taking the shot, but the slightly slower decision making / shooting form / prevents him from getting the open look. It’s a nitpick, but the better offensive player might have taken it. He passes out, good off ball cut timing.

20:15 o
I’d like him cutting faster or committing to the 3 point line earlier in this fast break. The slower movement / decision doesn’t help Aldridge who ends up committing an offensive foul

20:48 d
I like how he helps on the KD mismatch. But he misses the fact that Curry relocated behind him, and is a bit slow in starting to recover. Still, he shows good quickness once he notices Curry has moved. Only Durant’s bad pass prevents the Curry open 3, and Kawhi ends up fouling and sending Curry to the line

22:35 o
Here’s another possession showing Kawhi’s tendencies when his motor is limited. On offense, he tends to sit in the corner (or at the top). He provides good spacing, but when tired he doesn’t move off ball as much

22:57 d
Goes for the gamble steal. He doesn’t get it, but he’s gambling on a weak passer (Klay) whose poor passing prevents the layup.

23:10 o
Another possession just spacing the floor

24:30 o
More active off ball. starts in corner, off-ball cut, post up, attempted alleyoop but Kawhi can’t catch it

26:24 o
Kawhi off ball, then iso against iguodala. It’s fast, but he almost loses the dribble. Good pass for the shot

… (kawhi subs out, stream disappears for a bit). Notably the Spurs expand their lead by quite a bit with Kawhi out. They go on ~ 14-2 run, mostly without Kawhi.

40:12 o/d
He’s back in. Another offensive and defensive possession without doing much

40:45 o
Pick and roll, this one’s much better. Uses screen, drives , and dunks

41:00 d
Gets matched up with David west. Unexpected, but he shows good versatility.
Warriors now 4/8 from the line, including a miss by Curry, KD, Klay.

42:15 o
Another pick and roll. A combination of better screen and Kawhi being quicker leads to a pull-up midrange, which misses

42:24 d
Great gamble to double right before the pass, and gets the steal.

42:32 o
Passes out of the drive, and they get a good shot but it misses. After streaks of being lazier in the 1st quarter, this is now 3 offensive possessions in a row where Kawhi’s active

43:30 d
Accidentally fouls green (and an offensive spacing possession)

44:01 o
Tries an off-ball screen. It isn’t set perfectly , manu doesn’t use it… it ends up being a distraction more than anything. Kawhi goes to the perimeter, receives the pass, then drives. I like this Kawhi more than the one just providing spacing

47:40 d
Boxes out Draymond

47:43 o
They double Kawhi. He misses the pass to manu, pauses, ends up passing out to the perimeter which forces the reset. This possession and the next end up being largely created by Manu

49:45 o
Kawhi pick and roll — they’re really increasing this Pick and Roll rate and going away from the ball-movement-centric style of the first quarter. Kawhi gets free throws on the pull-up

51:20 d
Kawhi man iso defense, and the defender just passes to KD iso. Perhaps a case of Kawhi’s defensive (man) intimidation? He makes the pass slightly harder, doubles KD, but neither account for much.

51:42 o
Starts out without ball movement, just spacing. Backs up, then drives. Draws the defense, but instead of passing he chooses to iso shoot and miss.
They get the rebound, Kawhi isos, drives, and draws the foul. It’s still good offense, but you can also clearly see how the small limitations in motor/passing limit his creation and bog down the more motion-based Spurs system. At the same time, you see why Kawhi is such a historic scorer with his threat to drive, pull-up in the midrange, or shoot the three.

53:54 o
Hard to see, but Kawhi’s in good position for the offensive rebound

54:10 d
He started the game matching up with KD, then had a phase on Klay, now has had 2 possessions on Curry. Good defensive versatility. I’m not sure I like the switch at 54:15… it could have been communicated sooner by Kawhi, because a simple pass from KD (that KD misses) would be an open Curry 3. But good double on Durant, then good versatility to switch onto Zaza. He tries to save the mistake by the other Spur defender but he’s a hair behind Curry and Curry makes it.

54:35 o
This possession is less 2017 kawhi and more 2014 Kawhi. It’s the first Kawhi iso at the top in a while that also has off-ball movement, with Kawhi surveying. From this vantage point, Kawhi’s worse vision/processing isn’t as much of a limit, and kawhi can make the pass

54:50 D
Good double in transition on KD. Ideally the two of them wouldn’t foul but

59:30 o
Another Kawhi end-of-shotclock iso. Not a fan with this pull-up (foot on the line), but it’s good defense by KD who blocks it. But great recover from kawhi to tap it out to the shooter

1:00:45 O
I’d love for Kawhi to be a bit more active getting open. His slow walking hurts, but it’s mostly good defense by Curry to steal.

… With 5 minutes left in the 2nd, it’s the Warriors’ first made 3. I do think the Warriors’ cold shooting on the Warriors partially contributed to the Spurs lead, which is pretty important to Kawhi’s “narrative” argument (that he crushed the Warriors in his whopping 24-minute stretch)

1:04:14 O
What a fun possession! Popovich’s timeouts clearly having an impact
Kawhi starts as a spacer in the corner, now much more active off-ball after the time out. Kawhi iso drive, draws the defense… and again doesn’t pass out! Instead he goes for the hook shot which gets some separation, but is a less comfortable shot for him and it misses…. but he gets the rebound! Willing pass, another offensive rebound!
Then he’s off-ball for the catch and shoot 3… which misses.
Then he gets the ball again, and finally it’s a great pass. Layup pass, possibly the first of the game for Kawhi? Pop

1:05:00 O
Help defense may have contributed to the miss? Then defense on Durant may have contributed to the miss? Then good rebound to start the fast break

1:06:00 O
Weird time to show a replay, but great kawhi iso midrange over Draymond. Shows off his resilient scoring

… stream gets worse…

1:08:25 o
Pick and roll, finally Kawhi’s a passer which leads to an open shot. More great rebounding by him too

1:14:05 O
Kawhi iso, drive, collapses the defense. Again, he seems to be a more willing passer after the bench (small sample size or perhaps Popovich’s influence?). They make the 3.
__________

Film Notes:

Context: this is one of Kawhi's best halves in any his peak playoffs, so it's very likely to overrate him. In this half, he over-performs vs his 2017 Playoff average and his 2019 playoff average in scoring volume, scoring efficiency, rebounding (specifically offensive rebounding), turnovers, and overall plus/minus. His offensive rating this game was 161... which is just crazy! :crazy: It's a great half, and it's great given the competition, but far from sustainable.
Injury comment: Some have said that the 17 Zaza injury shouldn't be blamed on Kawhi, which is probably true. Others have countered that Kawhi has a history of playoff injuries, which is also true. One thing I haven't seen yet is the fact that Kawhi had already missed a playoff game in 2017 before the Zaza incident (which the Spurs won!). Even if you don't discount Kawhi for the Zaza incident, you may unfortunately still have to discount him for his other playoff game missed.

Scoring: His 3-level scoring repertoire is visible. He drives a lot, and draws a number of free throws. He has a midrange pull-up, which is fairly resilient. And he's a good spacer from 3. He has times where he moves off-ball, but overall he's far less focused on off-ball movement than he was in 14/16. There's a visible increase in spread pick and roll, where Kawhi is slightly over-calibrated towards scoring (though it still leads to pretty good offense).

Creation: His limited passing is apparent. He's a less willing passer than he should be on drives... there were numerous times in the 2nd quarter when he collapsed the defense and had an open 3 to pass out to, but instead chose to shoot (and miss). Still, he does draw enough defensive attention with his scoring that he ends up creating for teammates.

Off-ball: Per above, he has times when he moves off-ball, but it's less of a focus for him. There's slightly less "Beautiful game Spurs" and slightly more spread pick and roll. It still leads to good offense, which is great, but my concern is not necessarily that they're replacing some ball movement with pick and roll. It's instead that Kawhi's replacing some off-ball movement plays with resting in the corner as a floor spacer. He's a good floor-spacer, but there are limits to Kawhi's motor -- it's hard for him to combine peak off-ball Kawhi, peak Iso/PnR Kawhi, and peak defensive Kawhi into the same player.
Regardless, where Kawhi still provides off-ball value is in his offensive rebounding, which is certainly present in this game.

Defense: By my eye, this game supports general consensus: defensively, 2016 Kawhi > 2017 Kawhi > 2019/2021 Kawhi. Kawhi shows good man versatility, often playing KD, but also switching onto the guards and bigs.
He also showed to be a willing helper, often doubling on drives. His help defense and steal attempts aren't super gamble-heavy, though there are occasions where the offense could have punished Kawhi's helping with smart passing. He doesn't recover to Curry / his man quite as fast as I'd like for an All-time-level perimeter defender, but it's not slow by any means.
His defensive rebounding is good.
Defensive cons: That said, his defensive "volume" isn't as high as it was in 2016, to my eye. He had more possessions where he was resting on a relatively still defender. Could this be a case of defensive intimidation, where they try to keep the ball away from Kawhi? Maybe... but still, there's a decrease in defensive volume, whatever the reason. His on-ball defense is also a touch less impactful... he's slightly less of a quick footed, quick-handed ball-hawk compared to his younger years. Overall, a great defender, but not quite 2016 level.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #21 

Post#23 » by iggymcfrack » Wed Aug 24, 2022 8:46 am

Glad to see the Admiral finally go!!! He deserved it a long time ago and it would have been borderline criminal for him to finish outside the top 20. I honestly would have had him ahead of Russell for being so similar on the defensive end and so clearly superior on offense. Now that he's off the top of my list, I'm gonna have to do some analysis for who I want #3 behind Kawhi and Dirk. Really not that sure who should be on my shortlist. Dr. J, Moses, Barkley, Mailman, Nash, CP3, and AD all seem like guys who merit consideration at first glance.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #21 

Post#24 » by iggymcfrack » Wed Aug 24, 2022 9:09 am

My biggest question on Dr. J was whether his profile of being an excellent scorer without necessarily impacting the game a lot in other ways such as passing/playmaking or defense would make him someone whose box score stats exceeded his impact. Looking over Backpicks profile on him, it sounds like preliminary impact data such as AuPM would suggest just that in that he significantly underperformed his statistical impact year after year. I think that's enough for me to strike him from consideration for just now with confirmed impact superstars still on the board. Wanna get to know the impact of more players from before full play-by-play data before I pick a modern guy though. Barkley and the Malones have some standout seasons that need investigation.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #21 

Post#25 » by iggymcfrack » Wed Aug 24, 2022 9:31 am

So all the older guys I looked at had very disappointing preliminary impact stats that suggested maybe they weren't even near the top of the league at the time they played. I feel like I'm probably gonna slot in Chris Paul for my 3rd slot although picking a peak season won't be easy.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #21 

Post#26 » by 70sFan » Wed Aug 24, 2022 11:36 am

iggymcfrack wrote:So all the older guys I looked at had very disappointing preliminary impact stats that suggested maybe they weren't even near the top of the league at the time they played. I feel like I'm probably gonna slot in Chris Paul for my 3rd slot although picking a peak season won't be easy.

Moses had very disappointing impact stats in 1983?
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #21 

Post#27 » by 70sFan » Wed Aug 24, 2022 12:06 pm

I think people take Julius +/- data too seriously here. His numbers weren't that bad in most seasons (though they weren't amazing), but a lot of that had to do with Sixers roster construction. I mean, Julius was a net negative in 1981, but then came back with +12 in the very next season. Do you believe that he improved massively that much within one year or what?

I think 1976 Julius has to be considered here and years like 1977, 1980 or 1982 can compete with any Durant or Barkley season as well.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #21 

Post#28 » by CharityStripe34 » Wed Aug 24, 2022 12:31 pm

70sFan wrote:
iggymcfrack wrote:So all the older guys I looked at had very disappointing preliminary impact stats that suggested maybe they weren't even near the top of the league at the time they played. I feel like I'm probably gonna slot in Chris Paul for my 3rd slot although picking a peak season won't be easy.

Moses had very disappointing impact stats in 1983?


The inherent problem viewing the game from 40 years ago with today's lens and data.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #21 

Post#29 » by 70sFan » Wed Aug 24, 2022 12:39 pm

CharityStripe34 wrote:
70sFan wrote:
iggymcfrack wrote:So all the older guys I looked at had very disappointing preliminary impact stats that suggested maybe they weren't even near the top of the league at the time they played. I feel like I'm probably gonna slot in Chris Paul for my 3rd slot although picking a peak season won't be easy.

Moses had very disappointing impact stats in 1983?


The inherent problem viewing the game from 40 years ago with today's lens and data.

I guess that's the only reason of that take.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #21 

Post#30 » by SickMother » Wed Aug 24, 2022 1:13 pm

iggymcfrack wrote:My biggest question on Dr. J was whether his profile of being an excellent scorer without necessarily impacting the game a lot in other ways such as passing/playmaking or defense would make him someone whose box score stats exceeded his impact. Looking over Backpicks profile on him, it sounds like preliminary impact data such as AuPM would suggest just that in that he significantly underperformed his statistical impact year after year. I think that's enough for me to strike him from consideration for just now with confirmed impact superstars still on the board. Wanna get to know the impact of more players from before full play-by-play data before I pick a modern guy though. Barkley and the Malones have some standout seasons that need investigation.


In 1975-76 Julius ranked 1st in PPG, 5th in RPG, 7th in APG, 3rd in SPG and 7th in BPG while playing the third most minutes in the league. He was impacting the game in every way measurable at the time.

The other six players who clocked over 1,700 minutes on the 75-76 Nets - Rich Jones, John Williamson, Kim Hughes, Al Skinner, Tim Bassett and Brian Taylor - combined for negative 227 TS Add.

I've never seen any +/- or AuPM data for Erving in 75/76, but I can't imagine he underperformed his statistical impact leading that supporting cast to a Championship against three HOF players (David Thompson, Dan Issel, Bobby Jones) plus an ABA First Teamer (Ralph Simpson) and an HOF coach (Larry Brown).
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #21 

Post#31 » by homecourtloss » Wed Aug 24, 2022 2:18 pm

70sFan wrote:I think people take Julius +/- data too seriously here. His numbers weren't that bad in most seasons (though they weren't amazing), but a lot of that had to do with Sixers roster construction. I mean, Julius was a net negative in 1981, but then came back with +12 in the very next season. Do you believe that he improved massively that much within one year or what?

I think 1976 Julius has to be considered here and years like 1977, 1980 or 1982 can compete with any Durant or Barkley season as well.


It’s true that they can’t be the be-all, end-all, and we don’t know what they were like before 1977, but the numbers really make you wonder since they do cover J’s prime years. When you look at the known data for other players especially their respective peak/prime years, Dr. J’s numbers are really underwhelming, and it’s hard to ignore especially when we see WOWYR numbers or partial +/- for others. One concern is that other than in two seasons, he’s not near the top on his team in either ON court or ON-OFF among players who played consistent minutes. In most seasons, he does t compare favorably to Cheeks. Also, the Sixers do well enough with him off court so you’d think his ON court numbers would be stronger. If it were a season or two, eh, but it’s more than that.

1977: +5.2 ON, +6.0 ON/OFF. +5.2 on a Finals team at age 26.
1978: +4.9 ON, +.5 ON/OFF
1979: +1.7 ON, -.1 ON/OFF
1980: +4.9 ON, +3.0 ON/OFF
1981: +5.7 ON, -6.7 ON/OFF (six different Sixers had a higher ON)
1982: +8.6 ON, +10.0 ON/OFF
1983: +11.4 ON, +10.3 ON/OFF (three Sixers with higher ON, three with higher ON/OFF)
1984: +3.6 ON, +4.4 ON/OFF

Of course it brings up the question about others on this list so far whom we have fewer or no numbers for, i.e., 1977 Kareem, 1967 Wilt, 1964 Russell, 1986 Bird, 1987 Magic, 1965 Oscar, 1966 West, and 1977 Walton.

We have positive numbers for Bird in other seasons in the recent RAPM projects, really strong numbers for 1985 and 1988 Magic, really strong numbers for older Kareem, really strong WOWYR numbers for Walton, and the defensive ratings numbers for the Celtics with Russell and without.
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lessthanjake wrote: By playing in a way that prevents Kyrie from getting much impact, LeBron ensures that controlling for Kyrie has limited effect…
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #21 

Post#32 » by trex_8063 » Wed Aug 24, 2022 3:50 pm

1st ballot: '76 Julius Erving
Perhaps a hard one to place, given it's hard to gauge the strength of the ABA at that stage. But '76 Dr J is statistically bonkers, and appears to be doing EVERYTHING for this team [that wins the ABA title]. They're the #1 defense in the ABA, leading the league in opp TOV% (with Erving leading in spg and total steals [handily]), 3rd-best opp eFG% and 2pt% (with Erving leading the team in blocks), and he's team leader in DRebs [close 2nd in ORebs, too]. Leads team in ppg and apg, too, 2nd [to a low-volume scorer] in eFG%, while getting to the line more than twice as often as anyone else on the team [making >80%, too].

The one [or two?] games from this season I've seen, he looks like he's everywhere, doing everything. Given he was an NBA MVP in the early 80's, too [marginally past his physical peak], it's easy to believe he was as legit as his numbers suggest.


Feeling less and less sure about the order of what follows, fwiw.....

2nd ballot: '14 Kevin Durant ('17 > '16; full disclosure: I think '17 was probably the best overall version of him, but the 20 missed games is just enough for me to put it marginally behind '14)
'14 was one of the best pure-scoring seasons of all-time (a league-leading 32 ppg on absurd efficiency), and came while being the spearhead of a 6th-rated +3.8 rORTG, despite Westbrook missing 36 games and them having not much offensive power/depth beyond those two.
This was the first [or maybe 2nd] year he felt like a somewhat relevant play-maker, too, and also coincides with leading the team in DRebs (they were 9th in the league in DREB%, fwiw). May have been a marginal positive defensively for the first time in his career that year.

His playoff numbers decline.....but for cryin' out loud, he was still averaging nearly 30 ppg on decent efficiency, while facing the 7th-rated -2.1 rDRTG (with on of the best perimeter stoppers of his generation: Tony Allen), followed by the 9th-rated -1.9 rDRTG, and then the 3rd-rated -4.3 rDRTG [eventual champs] who had arguably the best perimeter stopper of the decade in '14-'16 Kawhi.


3rd ballot: '06 Dirk Nowitzki ('11 Dirk, '07 Dirk)
I personally like '06 Dirk best of all. I acknowledge he hadn't refined his isolation game to the degree of immunity that he had by '11, but I feel his better [younger] athleticism, superior rebounding, and better usage of the 3pt line make up for this.

His playoff scoring is still outstanding that year, and en route to the Finals--->which I think they might have won if not for some questionable officiating. G3 they lose by a mere 2 pts where Wade was awarded 18 FTA. G5 they lose by a single point, in a game Wade was awarded 25 FTA, and then G6 is a 3-pt loss wherein Wade gets 21 FTA (I specifically recall one HIGHLY questionable call).
Obviously Dirk's gravity/spacing effect, the ability to work pnp with him, and his GOAT-level big-man turnover economy (which also has a "global defense" impact, as Proxy put it) are all major considerations, too.
imo, Dirk was already showing chops capable of leading a team to a title without a "second star" at that point (and I suspect it would be the consensus peak year for him if they HAD won).

I'll give '11 the slight nod over '07 on the basis of apparent playoff resilience. '07 feels very "flukey" to me, but nonetheless.....


4. '17 Kawhi Leonard ('16 Kawhi)
5. '15 Chris Paul ('08, '13, '16, '09.....[boy he's got a lot of nice years])
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #21 

Post#33 » by 70sFan » Wed Aug 24, 2022 3:54 pm

homecourtloss wrote:
70sFan wrote:I think people take Julius +/- data too seriously here. His numbers weren't that bad in most seasons (though they weren't amazing), but a lot of that had to do with Sixers roster construction. I mean, Julius was a net negative in 1981, but then came back with +12 in the very next season. Do you believe that he improved massively that much within one year or what?

I think 1976 Julius has to be considered here and years like 1977, 1980 or 1982 can compete with any Durant or Barkley season as well.


It’s true that they can’t be the be-all, end-all, and we don’t know what they were like before 1977, but the numbers really make you wonder since they do cover J’s prime years. When you look at the known data for other players especially their respective peak/prime years, Dr. J’s numbers are really underwhelming, and it’s hard to ignore especially when we see WOWYR numbers or partial +/- for others. One concern is that other than in two seasons, he’s not near the top on his team in either ON court or ON-OFF among players who played consistent minutes. In most seasons, he does t compare favorably to Cheeks. Also, the Sixers do well enough with him off court so you’d think his ON court numbers would be stronger. If it were a season or two, eh, but it’s more than that.

1977: +5.2 ON, +6.0 ON/OFF. +5.2 on a Finals team at age 26.
1978: +4.9 ON, +.5 ON/OFF
1979: +1.7 ON, -.1 ON/OFF
1980: +4.9 ON, +3.0 ON/OFF
1981: +5.7 ON, -6.7 ON/OFF (six different Sixers had a higher ON)
1982: +8.6 ON, +10.0 ON/OFF
1983: +11.4 ON, +10.3 ON/OFF (three Sixers with higher ON, three with higher ON/OFF)
1984: +3.6 ON, +4.4 ON/OFF

Of course it brings up the question about others on this list so far whom we have fewer or no numbers for, i.e., 1977 Kareem, 1967 Wilt, 1964 Russell, 1986 Bird, 1987 Magic, 1965 Oscar, 1966 West, and 1977 Walton.

We have positive numbers for Bird in other seasons in the recent RAPM projects, really strong numbers for 1985 and 1988 Magic, really strong numbers for older Kareem, really strong WOWYR numbers for Walton, and the defensive ratings numbers for the Celtics with Russell and without.

It would be also nice to have his postseason splits to see if the pattern is consistent.

I don't have a clear explaination for that and it's possible that I just overrate Julius because of the eye test. I don't have a clear opinion about it, other than I don't see many reasons to doubt that Julius impacted Sixers in positive way.

Do you think I miss something? Do you have any hypotheses about Julius underwhelming numbers? Did he have any notable weaknesses I missed?

Would you have KD over him by the way?
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #21 

Post#34 » by SickMother » Wed Aug 24, 2022 3:55 pm

homecourtloss wrote:It’s true that they can’t be the be-all, end-all, and we don’t know what they were like before 1977, but the numbers really make you wonder since they do cover J’s prime years.


The numbers cover the back half of Dr. J's prime though, his peak was clearly the three preceding seasons with the pinnacle in 75/76. I would break up the relevant seasons of Erving's career like this...

[FIGURING IT OUT]
72-73 RS: 25.7 PER | .546 TS% | 23.1 WS | .170 WS/48 | --- BPM | 189 TS Add
72-73 PO: 28.8 PER | .570 TS% | 3.4 WS | .224 WS/48 | --- BPM

[PEAK]
74-76 RS: 26.8 PER | .565 TS% | 51.8 WS | .247 WS/48 | 9.2 BPM | 625 TS Add
74-76 PO: 26.7 PER | .577 TS% | 7.1 WS | .253 WS/48 | 9.4 BPM

[VALLEY]
77-79 RS: 20.9 PER | .548 TS% | 28.6 WS | .168 WS/48 | 4.2 BPM | 276 TS Add
77-79 PO: 22.3 PER | .564 TS% | 6.0 WS | .194 WS/48 | 6.6 BPM

[SECONDARY PEAK]
80-83 RS: 24.9 PER | .575 TS% | 50.6 WS | .223 WS/48 | 7.3 BPM | 544 TS Add
80-83 PO: 20.8 PER | .545 TS% | 8.2 WS | .153 WS/48 | 6.0 BPM

Also pretty impressive that for the majority of his prime Julius was able to noticeably ramp up his play in the playoffs (72-73 and 77-79) or maintain his MVP calibre play (74-76). His playoff performances got a little more uneven at the end of his prime, with solid runs in 80/82 but less than stellar results in 81/83 dragging the totals down some.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #21 

Post#35 » by Dr Positivity » Wed Aug 24, 2022 6:17 pm

Bobby Jones coming off the bench most likely affects Erving's +/- numbers in Philadelphia
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #21 

Post#36 » by iggymcfrack » Wed Aug 24, 2022 8:15 pm

70sFan wrote:
iggymcfrack wrote:So all the older guys I looked at had very disappointing preliminary impact stats that suggested maybe they weren't even near the top of the league at the time they played. I feel like I'm probably gonna slot in Chris Paul for my 3rd slot although picking a peak season won't be easy.

Moses had very disappointing impact stats in 1983?


Here's what I found from Backpicks:

Fortunately, we have Harvey Pollack’s plus-minus data for Moses’ four seasons in Philadelphia to help evaluate his impact. His AuPM oscillates between strong (but not transcendent) and pedestrian in those four seasons, with ’83 and ’85 looking like typical top-20 seasons and ’84 and ’86 lacking impact. Similarly, Moses’ regressed game-level data tells us that he made a difference, but that his impact was far short of a Grade-A superstar’s.

While his rebounding and physicality likely made him a positive defender — I certainly view him as such — the case for any kind of considerable defensive impact is lacking. Malone played on six below-average defensive teams in Houston, some of which were dreadful, and the Rocket D didn’t collapse after he left. In Philadelphia, the Sixers generated two strong defensive years in his first two seasons (3.8 and 3.0 points better than average, respectively). However, with the core of the team intact (save for Caldwell Jones), Philly’s three-year defensive efficiency peaked in 1981 and ’82 before slowly dropping off in the Malone years.


He ranks 154th in peak BPM, 214th in prime WOWYR, 85th in prime WOWY, and 237th in 5 year AuPM. Seems pretty unimpressive to me. If he really didn't have any significant impact on defense and was just a scorer/rebounder who played with good defenders, then it seems like he's still a long way behind Paul and Nash.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #21 

Post#37 » by 70sFan » Wed Aug 24, 2022 8:26 pm

iggymcfrack wrote:
70sFan wrote:
iggymcfrack wrote:So all the older guys I looked at had very disappointing preliminary impact stats that suggested maybe they weren't even near the top of the league at the time they played. I feel like I'm probably gonna slot in Chris Paul for my 3rd slot although picking a peak season won't be easy.

Moses had very disappointing impact stats in 1983?


Here's what I found from Backpicks:

Fortunately, we have Harvey Pollack’s plus-minus data for Moses’ four seasons in Philadelphia to help evaluate his impact. His AuPM oscillates between strong (but not transcendent) and pedestrian in those four seasons, with ’83 and ’85 looking like typical top-20 seasons and ’84 and ’86 lacking impact. Similarly, Moses’ regressed game-level data tells us that he made a difference, but that his impact was far short of a Grade-A superstar’s.

While his rebounding and physicality likely made him a positive defender — I certainly view him as such — the case for any kind of considerable defensive impact is lacking. Malone played on six below-average defensive teams in Houston, some of which were dreadful, and the Rocket D didn’t collapse after he left. In Philadelphia, the Sixers generated two strong defensive years in his first two seasons (3.8 and 3.0 points better than average, respectively). However, with the core of the team intact (save for Caldwell Jones), Philly’s three-year defensive efficiency peaked in 1981 and ’82 before slowly dropping off in the Malone years.


He ranks 154th in peak BPM, 214th in prime WOWYR, 85th in prime WOWY, and 237th in 5 year AuPM. Seems pretty unimpressive to me. If he really didn't have any significant impact on defense and was just a scorer/rebounder who played with good defenders, then it seems like he's still a long way behind Paul and Nash.

Ben really cherry picked the stats to prove his point. Sixers were better defensively in 1983 than in previous year. Likewise, Rockets definitely took a hit defensively after he left. Despite getting Caldwell Jones (definitely a positive defender), Rockets went from +1.4 to +3.6 rDRtg. To me, this is a collapse.

We actually have Moses on/off numbers and he looks incredible in 1983 and 1985. 1984 lowered his 3 years numbers, because he dealt with injuries. I think the actual numbers are significantly more important than BPM, which underrates his off-ball play.

Moses wasn't an elite defensive anchor, but he was clearly a positive defender in his peak years (he improved noticeably in 1981/82 by my tracking numbers). His offensive impact is significantly downgraded by you calling him "just a scorer/rebounder". Moses was arguably the best off-ball center in NBA history with top notch isolation skills. His unique skillset allowed him to dominate on offense without dominating the ball. He was extremely portable and scalable, proving in Philadelphia.

I'm not saying he's clearly ahead of Nash or Paul, but his profile is certainly up there.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #21 

Post#38 » by iggymcfrack » Wed Aug 24, 2022 8:48 pm

1. 2016/2017 Kawhi Leonard (2016)- Yes he suffered a season ending injury in the playoffs, but it was on a dirty play that could have happened to anyone and prior to that, he hadn’t been injury prone at all. In the playoffs that year, Kawhi had a 31.5 PER on .672 TS%. He had .314 WS/48 and a 14.2 BPM. All of those are all-time numbers. What’s even more impressive though is he did all that WITH some of the best wing defense of all-time. He won DPOY in 2015 and 2016 and absolutely played at that same elite level in the playoffs. He had a playoff on/off of +22.3 and led the Spurs to a huge lead over the best team of all-time in Game 1 against the Warriors in a series where they would ultimately get swept after he got hurt.

2. 2010/11 Dirk Nowitzki- In 2 strong RAPM samples, he ranked incredibly high finishing 1st overall in the NBAShotCharts site which spanned from 2010-2022 and he also ranked #3 in the 97-14 sample on Yahoo behind 2 LeBron years and one year from Tim Duncan. The Mavericks were approximately a -6 with him on the bench in both the regular season and postseason and yet, he led them to sweep Kobe and Pau in the first round and beat a superteam of Wade, Bosh, and LeBron that many thought was the best team ever established at the time.

3. 2013/14 Chris Paul (2011, 2015, 2016, 2017)- Chris Paul had tremendous impact and box score stats year after year. One strong RAPM had him rank ahead of KD 10 seasons in a row which is tough even for a vastly superior player just due to random chance and outliers. He's got several top 2 seasons by pretty much any impact stat you use. He has maybe the best ever box score season for a point guard. He also constantly ranks very high in DRAPM and is able to switch on to much larger players, even defending KD effectively in the 2018 Western Conference Finals. He's arguably the best defensive PG of all-time as well. The only question mark on his record has been getting it done in the playoffs. Well in 2014, he led the Clippers past Steph Curry and the Warriors in Round 1, putting up 22 and 14 with 4 steals on .640 TS% in Game 7. Then, in the next round his Clippers faced the KD/Westbrook Thunder and were +47 with CP3 on the floor, only losing because they were -52 with him on the bench.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #21 

Post#39 » by LukaTheGOAT » Wed Aug 24, 2022 8:51 pm

70sFan wrote:
iggymcfrack wrote:
70sFan wrote:Moses had very disappointing impact stats in 1983?


Here's what I found from Backpicks:

Fortunately, we have Harvey Pollack’s plus-minus data for Moses’ four seasons in Philadelphia to help evaluate his impact. His AuPM oscillates between strong (but not transcendent) and pedestrian in those four seasons, with ’83 and ’85 looking like typical top-20 seasons and ’84 and ’86 lacking impact. Similarly, Moses’ regressed game-level data tells us that he made a difference, but that his impact was far short of a Grade-A superstar’s.

While his rebounding and physicality likely made him a positive defender — I certainly view him as such — the case for any kind of considerable defensive impact is lacking. Malone played on six below-average defensive teams in Houston, some of which were dreadful, and the Rocket D didn’t collapse after he left. In Philadelphia, the Sixers generated two strong defensive years in his first two seasons (3.8 and 3.0 points better than average, respectively). However, with the core of the team intact (save for Caldwell Jones), Philly’s three-year defensive efficiency peaked in 1981 and ’82 before slowly dropping off in the Malone years.


He ranks 154th in peak BPM, 214th in prime WOWYR, 85th in prime WOWY, and 237th in 5 year AuPM. Seems pretty unimpressive to me. If he really didn't have any significant impact on defense and was just a scorer/rebounder who played with good defenders, then it seems like he's still a long way behind Paul and Nash.

Ben really cherry picked the stats to prove his point. Sixers were better defensively in 1983 than in previous year. Likewise, Rockets definitely took a hit defensively after he left. Despite getting Caldwell Jones (definitely a positive defender), Rockets went from +1.4 to +3.6 rDRtg. To me, this is a collapse.

We actually have Moses on/off numbers and he looks incredible in 1983 and 1985. 1984 lowered his 3 years numbers, because he dealt with injuries. I think the actual numbers are significantly more important than BPM, which underrates his off-ball play.

Moses wasn't an elite defensive anchor, but he was clearly a positive defender in his peak years (he improved noticeably in 1981/82 by my tracking numbers). His offensive impact is significantly downgraded by you calling him "just a scorer/rebounder". Moses was arguably the best off-ball center in NBA history with top notch isolation skills. His unique skillset allowed him to dominate on offense without dominating the ball. He was extremely portable and scalable, proving in Philadelphia.

I'm not saying he's clearly ahead of Nash or Paul, but his profile is certainly up there.


I just wanted to say that Ben does have Moses rated as a strong positive on defense. You might have know that, already but just figured I would add that in.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #21 

Post#40 » by iggymcfrack » Wed Aug 24, 2022 8:57 pm

70sFan wrote:
iggymcfrack wrote:
70sFan wrote:Moses had very disappointing impact stats in 1983?


Here's what I found from Backpicks:

Fortunately, we have Harvey Pollack’s plus-minus data for Moses’ four seasons in Philadelphia to help evaluate his impact. His AuPM oscillates between strong (but not transcendent) and pedestrian in those four seasons, with ’83 and ’85 looking like typical top-20 seasons and ’84 and ’86 lacking impact. Similarly, Moses’ regressed game-level data tells us that he made a difference, but that his impact was far short of a Grade-A superstar’s.

While his rebounding and physicality likely made him a positive defender — I certainly view him as such — the case for any kind of considerable defensive impact is lacking. Malone played on six below-average defensive teams in Houston, some of which were dreadful, and the Rocket D didn’t collapse after he left. In Philadelphia, the Sixers generated two strong defensive years in his first two seasons (3.8 and 3.0 points better than average, respectively). However, with the core of the team intact (save for Caldwell Jones), Philly’s three-year defensive efficiency peaked in 1981 and ’82 before slowly dropping off in the Malone years.


He ranks 154th in peak BPM, 214th in prime WOWYR, 85th in prime WOWY, and 237th in 5 year AuPM. Seems pretty unimpressive to me. If he really didn't have any significant impact on defense and was just a scorer/rebounder who played with good defenders, then it seems like he's still a long way behind Paul and Nash.

Ben really cherry picked the stats to prove his point. Sixers were better defensively in 1983 than in previous year. Likewise, Rockets definitely took a hit defensively after he left. Despite getting Caldwell Jones (definitely a positive defender), Rockets went from +1.4 to +3.6 rDRtg. To me, this is a collapse.

We actually have Moses on/off numbers and he looks incredible in 1983 and 1985. 1984 lowered his 3 years numbers, because he dealt with injuries. I think the actual numbers are significantly more important than BPM, which underrates his off-ball play.

Moses wasn't an elite defensive anchor, but he was clearly a positive defender in his peak years (he improved noticeably in 1981/82 by my tracking numbers). His offensive impact is significantly downgraded by you calling him "just a scorer/rebounder". Moses was arguably the best off-ball center in NBA history with top notch isolation skills. His unique skillset allowed him to dominate on offense without dominating the ball. He was extremely portable and scalable, proving in Philadelphia.

I'm not saying he's clearly ahead of Nash or Paul, but his profile is certainly up there.


I went searching for actual on/off numbers for Moses after this post. Couldn't find them. I did find this though:

Out of his nineteen seasons in the league, Malone had a negative D-PIPM for a whopping fourteen of them and a negative DBPM for every single one of them. Furthermore, in his years of stardom, Moses only anchored two top five defenses, both of which were for the immensely talented Philadelphia 76ers he joined in 1982. None of the other teams he played for in that time span even broke into the top nine for their respective seasons, with all of his prime years on the Rockets amounting to far below average team defensive ratings. When Malone was traded from Houston, their defense was barely affected in the following season. Overall, defense stands as one of Malone's more glaring weaknesses in terms of all-time context, as most of his contemporaries in the same echelon of greatness were far better on that side of the court than he ever could be.


Since I and most others regard '83 as superior to '82, we'll compare '83 Moses to the best seasons of all the other centers he'll be contrasted with -- from my personal point of view of course -- and '82 to the second best season of each of those big men. This'll allow us to see beyond just single season peaks, instead evaluating prolonged climaxes as well. Anyway, on to '83 first:

Best Season PIPM:

'83 Moses Malone: +4.8

'77 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: +8.1

'91 David Robinson: +7.4

'93 Hakeem Olajuwon: +7.3

'00 Shaquille O'Neal: +6.8

'19 Joel Embiid: +6.8

'11 Dwight Howard +6.4

'98 Dikembe Mutombo: +5.7

'90 Patick Ewing: +5.7

'04 Ben Wallace: +5.6

'77 Bill Walton: +5.3

'13 Marc Gasol: +5.0

'19 Rudy Gobert: +4.5

'00 Alonzo Mourning: +4.0

Best Season RAPTOR:

'83 Moses Malone: +6.5

'91 David Robinson: +8.2

'93 Hakeem Olajuwon: +7.8

'00 Shaquille O'Neal: +7.6

'77 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: +7.6

'19 Joel Embiid: +7.5

'11 Dwight Howard: +6.2

'04 Ben Wallace: +5.9

'19 Rudy Gobert: +5.4

'77 Bill Walton: +5.3

'90 Patrick Ewing: +3.5

Best Season WAR:

'83 Moses Malone: 16.3

'00 Shaquille O'Neal: 21.8

'93 Hakeem Olajuwon: 20.2

'77 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: 18.5

'91 David Robinson: 18.2

'04 Ben Wallace: 17.5

'11 Dwight Howard: 14.6

'19 Joel Embiid: 13.3

'77 Bill Walton: 12.5

'90 Patrick Ewing: 11.7

'19 Rudy Gobert: 11.4

In regards to the preceding assemblage of lists, Malone's lackluster standing is easy to recognize. In PIPM he ranks above just two other given players while in RAPTOR and WAR, his results are also subpar. Unfortunately for Moses, his '82 season won't be able to redeem such a disparity, with his defense in that season being represented as extremely undesirable by impact metrics.

Second Best Season PIPM:

'82 Moses Malone: +3.5

'94 David Robinson: +8.3

'74 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: +6.7

'01 Shaquille O'Neal: +6.5

'94 Hakeem Olajuwon: +6.2

'10 Dwight Howard: +6.7

'99 Alonzo Mourning: +6.0

'17 Rudy Gobert: +5.4

'78 Bill Walton: +5.3

'00 Dikembe Mutombo: +5.0

'03 Ben Wallace: +5.0

'91 Patick Ewing: +4.4

'12 Marc Gasol: +4.2

Second Best Season RAPTOR:

'82 Moses Malone: +4.0

'94 David Robinson: +9.1

'01 Shaquille O'Neal: +6.2

'94 Hakeem Olajuwon: +6.1

'10 Dwight Howard: +5.9

'79 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: +5.5

'17 Rudy Gobert: +6.5

'03 Ben Wallace: +5.6

'92 Patick Ewing: +4.6

Second Best Season WAR:

'82 Moses Malone: 12.0

'94 David Robinson: 20.4

'94 Hakeem Olajuwon: 19.3

'01 Shaquille O'Neal: 16.6

'03 Ben Wallace: 15.3

'10 Dwight Howard: 14.8

'79 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar: 14.7

'17 Rudy Gobert: 14.1

'92 Patick Ewing: 13.6

In the above charts, Moses' position falters even further. He ranks dead last in all three of those major stats, an underwhelming mark for a player who most see as a lock for the top 20 best players in league history. Nonetheless, with all complex things of such nature, we need to ask why specifically Moses' seasons rank so low in these crucial metrics? Is it warranted? Well to put it simply, yes it is. The Chairman's low numbers stem from an overtly harsh evaluation of his defense, especially in '82 (net negative based on both RAPTOR and PIPM). However, that's not to say that his offense wasn't problematic either.

Moses' pathetic creating ability greatly tints his offensive value, with RAPTOR and WAR in particular being stats that highly value such elements. In addition, his scoring production's value was also limited by the influence of high minute inflation. Naturally, these deficiencies follow Malone's underwhelming statistical portfolio into other aspects. For example, Moses places just 34th in peak WS/48, 154th in peak Backpicks' BPM, 214th in peak WOWYR, 85th in peak WOWY and an abysmal 237th in five-year peak augmented plus-minus. So no, the trends that arose in Moses' impact metrics are far from just a mere fluke. Overall, most of his weaknesses in both offense and defense even persisted into his peremptory apex, culminating in an uninspiring prime.


What impact numbers do you have that show a different story? Is it possible that Dwight Howard had a better peak than Moses?

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