Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #23 - 2010-11 Dirk Nowitzki

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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #23 

Post#21 » by trelos6 » Tue Aug 30, 2022 2:51 am

Proxy wrote:
trelos6 wrote:.
25. 2007-08 Chris Paul. James Harden 2017-19, Reggie Miller, Anthony Davis 2020. Lots of guys to consider in this spot. I’m ultimately leaning with Chris Paul. As impressive as a switching bug who protects the paint and shoot 3’s is, CP3 was an elite offensive initiator AND point of attack defender. For these reasons I give him then nod at 25.


Reggie getting consideration this early is pretty interesting. I'm definitely aware of many of the reasons to be pretty high on him but I didn't think he had a strong case to be around here, what would your argument be?


Reggie’s peak seasons were around 23 pp75 and +11rTS%. In the post season, he was also a +10 rTS% in many years. Add to that, being so long, he was effective defensively. He is probably a bit higher IMO because he was so additive and portable. His gravity definitely helped his teammates, even though he wasn’t a good passer. He never got the accolades he deserved while playing, but has become an advanced stats darling.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #23 

Post#22 » by LukaTheGOAT » Tue Aug 30, 2022 5:04 am

Just genuinely curious? What is CP3's peak lacking to be in discussion for top 15; not saying he should be there, but if we compare him to say Garnett 03/04 (or even 08 when he had a longer PS run), is there any hardcore evidence that Garnett performed for multiple rounds in a different stratosphere in any of his PS performances than what 08/14, etc. CP3 did?
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #23 

Post#23 » by falcolombardi » Tue Aug 30, 2022 5:22 am

LukaTheGOAT wrote:Just genuinely curious? What is CP3's peak lacking to be in discussion for top 15; not saying he should be there, but if we compare him to say Garnett 03/04 (or even 08 when he had a longer PS run), is there any hardcore evidence that Garnett performed for multiple rounds in a different stratosphere in any of his PS performances than what 08/14, etc. CP3 did?


Part of the issue with paul is that he often gets hurt in the playoffs which affects a lot of his best runs

Part of the issue is that he never had a deep run in his prime as a team main star so people

A) have more doubt how seriously to evaluate 1-2 round runs conpared to guys who had full finals runs (part of the playoffs game is being able to keep up through 2 months of gruelling playoffs matchups eith the regular season wearing on the player knees)

B) championship bias/doubt. Not necesarrily a good or bad thingh. Lots of posters wonder about paul lack of team success having somethingh to do with him that doesnt appear in the stat sheet

C) playstyle doubts. A lot of posters have the belief there is somethingh limiting about paul skillset/approach that affects him and his teams in the playofffs, wheter it be his small size or his more conservative decision making

That is about it basically with paul.

I dislike point C) on principle as it lets posters (imo) justify biases about how a dominant player should look or play

and think point B) is kind of a "mediocre" talking point whether it is applied to paul, nash,etc. You should be able to explain why a player lack of titles is related to flaws in his play, not retroactively go the other way around

Point A) is just a inarguable huge flaw in paul tho, is hard to overstate how much his injury prone-ness has ruined his teams runs over the years
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #23 

Post#24 » by AEnigma » Tue Aug 30, 2022 6:26 am

LukaTheGOAT wrote:Just genuinely curious? What is CP3's peak lacking to be in discussion for top 15; not saying he should be there, but if we compare him to say Garnett 03/04 (or even 08 when he had a longer PS run), is there any hardcore evidence that Garnett performed for multiple rounds in a different stratosphere in any of his PS performances than what 08/14, etc. CP3 did?

If you are going to ask that, you probably want to define “hardcore evidence” and “different stratosphere”. DraymondGold has been going over some of the “impact” numbers if that is your idea of “hardcore evidence”. And I would say putting up that type of fight against the Lakers in 2004 after having one of the all-time MVP seasons is a “different stratosphere” from any particular achievement of Paul’s.

I do not think Garnett has the most exemplary postseason history, but his defensive ability is a relative constant, plenty of work has gone into showing the ways his comparatively off-ball offensive game boosts teammates even when struggling to score at his regular season levels, and dozens of pages of analysis have been written comparing him favourably to our darling Tim Duncan. If in 2008 we swap Rondo and Garnett for Paul and some Rondo-equivalent power forward, are you confident the results would be the same or better? Garnett profiles as a true maximiser, in much the same way as Bill Walton. Can we say the same for Paul?
MyUniBroDavis wrote:Some people are clearly far too overreliant on data without context and look at good all in one or impact numbers and get wowed by that rather than looking at how a roster is actually built around a player
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #23 

Post#25 » by LukaTheGOAT » Tue Aug 30, 2022 11:35 am

AEnigma wrote:
LukaTheGOAT wrote:Just genuinely curious? What is CP3's peak lacking to be in discussion for top 15; not saying he should be there, but if we compare him to say Garnett 03/04 (or even 08 when he had a longer PS run), is there any hardcore evidence that Garnett performed for multiple rounds in a different stratosphere in any of his PS performances than what 08/14, etc. CP3 did?

If you are going to ask that, you probably want to define “hardcore evidence” and “different stratosphere”. DraymondGold has been going over some of the “impact” numbers if that is your idea of “hardcore evidence”. And I would say putting up that type of fight against the Lakers in 2004 after having one of the all-time MVP seasons is a “different stratosphere” from any particular achievement of Paul’s.

I do not think Garnett has the most exemplary postseason history, but his defensive ability is a relative constant, plenty of work has gone into showing the ways his comparatively off-ball offensive game boosts teammates even when struggling to score at his regular season levels, and dozens of pages of analysis have been written comparing him favourably to our darling Tim Duncan. If in 2008 we swap Rondo and Garnett for Paul and some Rondo-equivalent power forward, are you confident the results would be the same or better? Garnett profiles as a true maximiser, in much the same way as Bill Walton. Can we say the same for Paul?


The PS impact almost unanimously lean CP3 in terms of PS impact so the numbers would not be the way to go.

And Garnett lead offenses have just generally been lukewarm historically in the PS (those Minnesots teams were offensively slanted albeit still not great). I credit KG for being arguably best defensive anchor of the modern era after Hakeem, however I still don't love his offense, even in a #2 rope. I think he always has scoring efficiency issues except in maybe rare circumstances with a special PG/playmaker. I prefer a David Robinson actually in a #2 role, who can still get to the line and approximate 80% of what KG can do as a passer/spacer while being one of the GOAT lob targets.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #23 

Post#26 » by AEnigma » Tue Aug 30, 2022 1:01 pm

LukaTheGOAT wrote:
AEnigma wrote:
LukaTheGOAT wrote:Just genuinely curious? What is CP3's peak lacking to be in discussion for top 15; not saying he should be there, but if we compare him to say Garnett 03/04 (or even 08 when he had a longer PS run), is there any hardcore evidence that Garnett performed for multiple rounds in a different stratosphere in any of his PS performances than what 08/14, etc. CP3 did?

If you are going to ask that, you probably want to define “hardcore evidence” and “different stratosphere”. DraymondGold has been going over some of the “impact” numbers if that is your idea of “hardcore evidence”. And I would say putting up that type of fight against the Lakers in 2004 after having one of the all-time MVP seasons is a “different stratosphere” from any particular achievement of Paul’s.

I do not think Garnett has the most exemplary postseason history, but his defensive ability is a relative constant, plenty of work has gone into showing the ways his comparatively off-ball offensive game boosts teammates even when struggling to score at his regular season levels, and dozens of pages of analysis have been written comparing him favourably to our darling Tim Duncan. If in 2008 we swap Rondo and Garnett for Paul and some Rondo-equivalent power forward, are you confident the results would be the same or better? Garnett profiles as a true maximiser, in much the same way as Bill Walton. Can we say the same for Paul?

The PS impact almost unanimously lean CP3 in terms of PS impact so the numbers would not be the way to go.

Well that is not really true lol, but that is also conflating “impact” with “performance”. Unless you are referring to team results and saying Paul’s teams performed better, but then you basically need to ignore Garnett’s deeper runs in favour of how Paul was doing over the course of his second round matchups (somewhat famously against teams which always went on to lose the following round :oops:).

And Garnett lead offenses have just generally been lukewarm historically in the PS (those Minnesots teams were offensively slanted albeit still not great).

Why would we be asking for more than that from Garnett? I am asking more of Paul because his comparison is Nash and tbh Paul’s teammates were at least comparably offensively inclined as Nash’s were, and if we concede offence to Nash (as we should), then Paul’s vaunted defensive impact advantage no longer looks like too much in the postseason. None of that really applies to Garnett.

I credit KG for being arguably best defensive anchor of the modern era after Hakeem,

Okay so where is the problem.

however I still don't love his offense, even in a #2 rope. I think he always has scoring efficiency issues except in maybe rare circumstances with a special PG/playmaker. I prefer a David Robinson actually in a #2 role, who can still get to the line and approximate 80% of what KG can do as a passer/spacer while being one of the GOAT lob targets.

That is theoretically fine I guess — I think Garnett offers a more consistent baseline against stronger defences and is a lot more trustworthy at running an offence when this hypothetical #1 offensive leader sits, but different strokes — but that is not really relevant to this random Paul comparison. I am still unsure of what your intended parametres are or why you are interested in contrasting these two radically different players and career arcs.

Like if you are pushing back on Garnett having a top fifteen postseason run in a vacuum and abstractly using that to argue we should push back on postseason reliance for Paul, I mean I guess I follow the approach, but it just seems like a weird one unless you have a more specific criticism of how Garnett handled the postseason — because plenty of his actual supporters do see him as a top fifteen or even top ten postseason performer and as someone whose only real disadvantage to Duncan is some contextually mild scoring decline.
MyUniBroDavis wrote:Some people are clearly far too overreliant on data without context and look at good all in one or impact numbers and get wowed by that rather than looking at how a roster is actually built around a player
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #23 

Post#27 » by No-more-rings » Tue Aug 30, 2022 1:37 pm

LukaTheGOAT wrote:
AEnigma wrote:
LukaTheGOAT wrote:Just genuinely curious? What is CP3's peak lacking to be in discussion for top 15; not saying he should be there, but if we compare him to say Garnett 03/04 (or even 08 when he had a longer PS run), is there any hardcore evidence that Garnett performed for multiple rounds in a different stratosphere in any of his PS performances than what 08/14, etc. CP3 did?

If you are going to ask that, you probably want to define “hardcore evidence” and “different stratosphere”. DraymondGold has been going over some of the “impact” numbers if that is your idea of “hardcore evidence”. And I would say putting up that type of fight against the Lakers in 2004 after having one of the all-time MVP seasons is a “different stratosphere” from any particular achievement of Paul’s.

I do not think Garnett has the most exemplary postseason history, but his defensive ability is a relative constant, plenty of work has gone into showing the ways his comparatively off-ball offensive game boosts teammates even when struggling to score at his regular season levels, and dozens of pages of analysis have been written comparing him favourably to our darling Tim Duncan. If in 2008 we swap Rondo and Garnett for Paul and some Rondo-equivalent power forward, are you confident the results would be the same or better? Garnett profiles as a true maximiser, in much the same way as Bill Walton. Can we say the same for Paul?


The PS impact almost unanimously lean CP3 in terms of PS impact so the numbers would not be the way to go.

And Garnett lead offenses have just generally been lukewarm historically in the PS (those Minnesots teams were offensively slanted albeit still not great). I credit KG for being arguably best defensive anchor of the modern era after Hakeem, however I still don't love his offense, even in a #2 rope. I think he always has scoring efficiency issues except in maybe rare circumstances with a special PG/playmaker. I prefer a David Robinson actually in a #2 role, who can still get to the line and approximate 80% of what KG can do as a passer/spacer while being one of the GOAT lob targets.

I think to keep the KG argument as simple as possible, KG was a guy who at his peak led the league in RAPM two straight seasons and with injuries to his 2nd option still came within 2 wins of beating Shaq & Kobe to go to the finals. I don’t think Paul ever came close to that kind of play over a full season, and Kg’s cast was decent but nothing special. Certainly he’s above Paul as a floor raiser. People always like to bring up his 2018 run as something amazing and it was, but he was more of 2nd option or 1b at best as far as the best player on that team. I don’t think it at all compares to what KG did for Boston in 08, KG was at the end of his prime or slightly past it similar to Paul in 2018.

Idk, I just think they’re different caliber players for peak and prime. I don’t think KG was as good as Duncan but he’s definitely closer to Duncan’s peak than he is Chris Paul or someone like Kevin Durant for that matter.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #23 

Post#28 » by CharityStripe34 » Tue Aug 30, 2022 2:15 pm

Missed the last round, was out of town. Copy and pasted.

1. Bob Pettit (1959) : Arguably the league's best player in the first half-decade of the shot-clock era, and certainly a Top 5 player for literally 95% of his career until his last season when he got a knee-injury and decided to retire (as an All-NBA 2nd teamer) to pursue banking/finance (take that plumbers and firemen). The league's first true, prototypical PF that could shoot from distance and rebound like a MF'er who won two MVP's and a title. His 1959 was his absolute peak coming off a dominant title-winning season the year before.

Honorable mention: (1958, 1962)

2. Moses Malone (1983): The most lethal booty of one of the most competitive eras of hoops. Bodied the entire league for 5-6 years to multiple MVP's and a dominant title run with some of the most powerful hips and thighs in history, and without Shaq's girth. Ran through a very competitive East and nearly sent Kareem to AARP early in the Finals. Goosed his rebound numbers 'cause he knew it would inflate his PER like a boss.

Honorable mention: 1979, 1982

3. Dirk Nowitzki (2006): Underappreciated by casual observers but was turning into a dominant, lethal offensive force in the first decade of the aughts, culminating in an incredible post-season run that saw him dethrone (for a season, at lest) Duncan's Spurs at their apex as a team. Incredibly efficient and versatile scorer for his size and considering the areas of the floor he operated in and from.

Honorable mention: 2011, 2007
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #23 

Post#29 » by DraymondGold » Tue Aug 30, 2022 3:53 pm

No-more-rings wrote:Dirk vs Durant: Looks this spot likely comes down to Dirk vs KD. I feel like those advocating for KD haven't really explained very well why KD had more impact. Yeah KD was probably the better raw talent, and had more defensive ability when focused on that end, but KD's defense gets overrated to the point where I'm not sure why it would be a considerable advantage over Dirk. People point to 2017 where he had life incredibly easy as evidence of his defensive impact, but 2019 is the only year of those 3 Golden State years where the Warriors weren't worse defensively with KD off the court though I guess 2017 RAPM had him as a slight positive which seems fair. He was overall a solid/slightly above average defender over his prime I'd say. Dirk's is probably not any worse actually when you think about it, he usually graded out a little above average in DRAPM.

To be clear, Dirk had real weaknesses on defense as well. Dirk couldn't guard the pick and roll, and lacked in mobility to really be elite or anything. He could block some shots here and there, and play solid post defense but no one is confusing him for KG in versatility, or Duncan in rim protection. But in reality, KD can't be your anchor at a PF position just like Dirk can't.
Defensively, I do agree that KD's defense is overrated, but to me he's better than Dirk by enough of a margin to make it close.

You mention "2019 is the only year of those 3 Golden State years where the Warriors weren't worse defensively with KD off the court"... I'm a bit confused by this point. Wouldn't this suggest that he was a positive defender most of the time on the Warriors, particularly in the younger years people are arguing (2014-2017)?

I agree with some of your assessments of Dirk's weaknesses, especially his lack of mobility and rim protection. Personally, I'm a bit more concerned about his lack of mobility if we consider the time machine argument. Some people have argued Dirk would be better offensively in this era. That may be true, but for how much people pick on players like Jokic defensively in the postseason, it's hard not to see players being just as intentional about picking on Dirk defensively. From this perspective, Durant is less of liability. His defensive strengths aren't significant compared to the great wing defenders, but his versatility and relative lack of weaknesses (relative to Dirk at their peak) makes me more comfortable with him in the playoffs.

And for what it's worth, you mention that they both play power forward, but I see Dirk a lot closer to being a big man (where rim protection is more important) and Durant a lot closer to being a wing. From that perspective, I think their defensive value relative to positional expectations is also a small point in Durant's favor.

No-more-rings wrote:
trelos6 wrote:23. Kevin Durant. 2017. 28 pp75 at +10 rTS%. I know Curry was grabbing the attention, giving KD easier looks, but we don’t dock Magic for playing with Kareem, Jordan for playing with Scottie and Rodman (offensive rebounds), or Kobe for playing with Shaq.

We don’t dock Magic since he was the one actually running the offense. Jordan also garnered far and away the most attention on the Bulls. KD did what he was supposed to do and won, but I just don’t see the 2017 season as this all time great season. I see his 2014 as more impressive overall, he carried his team in the regular season(Westbrook missing a lot of games), then at least held his own in the postseason. 2014 KD on the Warriors would’ve led a better regular season with comparable playoff results.
On 2014 vs 2017, how much do you consider them defensively different?

To me, one of the limits to Durant's game is his mind. He doesn't have the BBIQ or the processing speed of many of the great offensive facilitators or defensive anchors.

Similarly, his mindset often limits him. He's often less willing to "do the dirty work" compared to a player like Russell or Draymond. His rebounding is poor (relative to other all time greats at his size), and he'll often forget to box out. If I remember correctly, this actually costed the Warriors a game in the 2019 playoffs against the Clippers. He has a history of not trying as hard on defense as he might, with the assumption that he'll just "flip the switch" in the playoffs. However, this certainly limits his regular season value and the building of poor habits can often make it harder of for him to fully flip the switch in the playoffs (this could be seen in the recent Nets playoff runs).

One reason I like 2016 and 2017 more than 2014 is that I think his intelligence improved slightly, and his mindset was slightly better calibrated as a team player willing to defend or rebound or play within the offense. Certainly some of these changes are contextual -- but if they were fully contextual, I'd suggest he'd show a similar mindset in 2018 and 2019, which we clearly don't see. He became a less willing rebounder and defender in 18/19, and he wanted less of his shots to be within the flow of the offense and more from isolation, which ultimately hurt the team's offensive success.

Do you not see these improvements from 2014 to 2016/2017, or do you entirely chalk them up to context? If you think it's context, how would you explain the seeming decline in defense/rebounding/team-play in 2018 or 2019?

How do they stack up offensively? KD put up way better scoring numbers in the regular season, he had quite a few rough drop offs in the postseason pre and post GSW. In 2014, you can't just throw your hands up and say "phh" he faced some tough defenses that year. As if that isn't something common for superstars trying to get a title. So KD still managed a 58 ts% in the playoffs from 2012-2016, still pretty good though post Harden it was 56 ts% and Dirk averaged almost a 62 ts% in those last 4 prime years(08-11). Certainly not everything to consider, but considering scoring is both guys' best strength I'd think it matters some.

Doesn't matter if you take 2006, or 2011, I'd say both are better than KD's best. Dirk was absolutely lethal in the mid range, KD took and made more 3s, though Dirk's prime sort of ended before the league really took off to what it is now with teams bombing 50 3s a game. Dirk may get hurt more on defense today, but his shooting and shot creation would translate very well. Dirk seemed to have a better understanding of when not to overshoot, Durant would tend to at times look like Melo when his shot was off, go 10-30 and not do much else to make up for it. Those are far and few in between but still. I guess it comes down to who you'd rather have to lead your team to a title, and given what happened, I just find it hard to pick KD.
Not too much to say on scoring, I tend to agree. Dirk is one of the few players to have an argument over peak Durant as a scorer, and I might actually lean Dirk.

That said, I do see Durant as clearly the superior playmaker.
-Peak Durant has 2-3x the PlayVal, ~2x the Box Creation, and better passer rating, and he's still better in these stats in the playoffs.
Great passing often requires film study, and while I don't have the time to do a full film study, I would point out Backpicks' Top 40 project sees Durant as the better passer too (though neither are great). Dirk authored ~0.8 "good" passes per 100 possessions, while Durant authored 2 "good" passes per 100 possessions.

To me, Durant's advantage on defense and playmaking (which are small but clear) are enough to shrink Dirk's advantage in scoring (which is small but clear). I have them quite close, but to me Durant's advantages are enough for me to take him over Dirk, at least for now. They're certainly close enough that I could be swayed by compelling evidence, but I just haven't been convinced yet.

Think people should be careful not to sleep on Tmac as a top 25 candidate here. His statistical peak(2003), compares very well with a guy like Wade or KD, and actually looks a little better than Kobe's. Problem is, it's an outlier season, and outside of 2003 Tmac had a lot of trouble scoring efficiently in the playoffs.
Yeah that's fair, he probably should at least be getting mentions around now considering how many others layers are. And I tend to agree it's likely his multi-year limitations that are his biggest concerns, given how much of an outlier 2003 was.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #23 

Post#30 » by capfan33 » Tue Aug 30, 2022 5:49 pm

Dirk vs Durant is very interesting for me, as Dirk's my 3rd favorite player ever and I'm not a huge KD guy. While based on gut feel it seems like KD should be "better", I'm not actually convinced he was more impactful or had a better overall skillset for actually impacting games in the postseason.

At the end of the day, the vast majority of both players impact comes from scoring, and in a postseason environment Dirk's scoring definitely looks better to me than KDs.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #23 

Post#31 » by tone wone » Tue Aug 30, 2022 6:06 pm

AEnigma wrote:I do not think Garnett has the most exemplary postseason history, but his defensive ability is a relative constant, plenty of work has gone into showing the ways his comparatively off-ball offensive game boosts teammates even when struggling to score at his regular season levels, and dozens of pages of analysis have been written comparing him favourably to our darling Tim Duncan. If in 2008 we swap Rondo and Garnett for Paul and some Rondo-equivalent power forward, are you confident the results would be the same or better? Garnett profiles as a true maximiser, in much the same way as Bill Walton. Can we say the same for Paul?

Maybe. That Boston teams' whole idenity was defense and under no circumstance is CHris Paul going to come any near KGs defensive impact, BUT he's going to absolutely make that team elite offensively. CP3/Pierce/Allen would function shockingly similar to CP3/Blake/Reddick..you know the trio that put together back to back #1 offenses. With the same coach no less.

2008 and 2009 they'd be absolutely elite even if they dont quite hit KGs '08 peak of 9+srs/10+net 66wins.
SinceGatlingWasARookie wrote:I don’t think LeBron was as good a point guard as Mo Williams for the point guard play not counting the scoring threat. In other words in a non shooting Rondo like role Mo Williams would be better than LeBron.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #23 

Post#32 » by tone wone » Tue Aug 30, 2022 6:30 pm

No-more-rings wrote:I think to keep the KG argument as simple as possible, KG was a guy who at his peak led the league in RAPM two straight seasons and with injuries to his 2nd option still came within 2 wins of beating Shaq & Kobe to go to the finals. I don’t think Paul ever came close to that kind of play over a full season, and Kg’s cast was decent but nothing special. Certainly he’s above Paul as a floor raiser. People always like to bring up his 2018 run as something amazing and it was, but he was more of 2nd option or 1b at best as far as the best player on that team. I don’t think it at all compares to what KG did for Boston in 08, KG was at the end of his prime or slightly past it similar to Paul in 2018.

Idk, I just think they’re different caliber players for peak and prime. I don’t think KG was as good as Duncan but he’s definitely closer to Duncan’s peak than he is Chris Paul or someone like Kevin Durant for that matter.

The Celtics were an ensemble offensively. Is being barely the most important piece in an ensemble any more important than being the #2 in a clearly defined duo?

I dont think Garnett was as important to Boston's offense in 2008 than Paul was to Houston's in 2018.
SinceGatlingWasARookie wrote:I don’t think LeBron was as good a point guard as Mo Williams for the point guard play not counting the scoring threat. In other words in a non shooting Rondo like role Mo Williams would be better than LeBron.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #23 

Post#33 » by falcolombardi » Tue Aug 30, 2022 6:40 pm

DraymondGold wrote:
No-more-rings wrote:Dirk vs Durant: Looks this spot likely comes down to Dirk vs KD. I feel like those advocating for KD haven't really explained very well why KD had more impact. Yeah KD was probably the better raw talent, and had more defensive ability when focused on that end, but KD's defense gets overrated to the point where I'm not sure why it would be a considerable advantage over Dirk. People point to 2017 where he had life incredibly easy as evidence of his defensive impact, but 2019 is the only year of those 3 Golden State years where the Warriors weren't worse defensively with KD off the court though I guess 2017 RAPM had him as a slight positive which seems fair. He was overall a solid/slightly above average defender over his prime I'd say. Dirk's is probably not any worse actually when you think about it, he usually graded out a little above average in DRAPM.

To be clear, Dirk had real weaknesses on defense as well. Dirk couldn't guard the pick and roll, and lacked in mobility to really be elite or anything. He could block some shots here and there, and play solid post defense but no one is confusing him for KG in versatility, or Duncan in rim protection. But in reality, KD can't be your anchor at a PF position just like Dirk can't.
Defensively, I do agree that KD's defense is overrated, but to me he's better than Dirk by enough of a margin to make it close.

You mention "2019 is the only year of those 3 Golden State years where the Warriors weren't worse defensively with KD off the court"... I'm a bit confused by this point. Wouldn't this suggest that he was a positive defender most of the time on the Warriors, particularly in the younger years people are arguing (2014-2017)?

I agree with some of your assessments of Dirk's weaknesses, especially his lack of mobility and rim protection. Personally, I'm a bit more concerned about his lack of mobility if we consider the time machine argument. Some people have argued Dirk would be better offensively in this era. That may be true, but for how much people pick on players like Jokic defensively in the postseason, it's hard not to see players being just as intentional about picking on Dirk defensively. From this perspective, Durant is less of liability. His defensive strengths aren't significant compared to the great wing defenders, but his versatility and relative lack of weaknesses (relative to Dirk at their peak) makes me more comfortable with him in the playoffs.

And for what it's worth, you mention that they both play power forward, but I see Dirk a lot closer to being a big man (where rim protection is more important) and Durant a lot closer to being a wing. From that perspective, I think their defensive value relative to positional expectations is also a small point in Durant's favor.

No-more-rings wrote:
trelos6 wrote:23. Kevin Durant. 2017. 28 pp75 at +10 rTS%. I know Curry was grabbing the attention, giving KD easier looks, but we don’t dock Magic for playing with Kareem, Jordan for playing with Scottie and Rodman (offensive rebounds), or Kobe for playing with Shaq.

We don’t dock Magic since he was the one actually running the offense. Jordan also garnered far and away the most attention on the Bulls. KD did what he was supposed to do and won, but I just don’t see the 2017 season as this all time great season. I see his 2014 as more impressive overall, he carried his team in the regular season(Westbrook missing a lot of games), then at least held his own in the postseason. 2014 KD on the Warriors would’ve led a better regular season with comparable playoff results.
On 2014 vs 2017, how much do you consider them defensively different?

To me, one of the limits to Durant's game is his mind. He doesn't have the BBIQ or the processing speed of many of the great offensive facilitators or defensive anchors.

Similarly, his mindset often limits him. He's often less willing to "do the dirty work" compared to a player like Russell or Draymond. His rebounding is poor (relative to other all time greats at his size), and he'll often forget to box out. If I remember correctly, this actually costed the Warriors a game in the 2019 playoffs against the Clippers. He has a history of not trying as hard on defense as he might, with the assumption that he'll just "flip the switch" in the playoffs. However, this certainly limits his regular season value and the building of poor habits can often make it harder of for him to fully flip the switch in the playoffs (this could be seen in the recent Nets playoff runs).

One reason I like 2016 and 2017 more than 2014 is that I think his intelligence improved slightly, and his mindset was slightly better calibrated as a team player willing to defend or rebound or play within the offense. Certainly some of these changes are contextual -- but if they were fully contextual, I'd suggest he'd show a similar mindset in 2018 and 2019, which we clearly don't see. He became a less willing rebounder and defender in 18/19, and he wanted less of his shots to be within the flow of the offense and more from isolation, which ultimately hurt the team's offensive success.

Do you not see these improvements from 2014 to 2016/2017, or do you entirely chalk them up to context? If you think it's context, how would you explain the seeming decline in defense/rebounding/team-play in 2018 or 2019?

How do they stack up offensively? KD put up way better scoring numbers in the regular season, he had quite a few rough drop offs in the postseason pre and post GSW. In 2014, you can't just throw your hands up and say "phh" he faced some tough defenses that year. As if that isn't something common for superstars trying to get a title. So KD still managed a 58 ts% in the playoffs from 2012-2016, still pretty good though post Harden it was 56 ts% and Dirk averaged almost a 62 ts% in those last 4 prime years(08-11). Certainly not everything to consider, but considering scoring is both guys' best strength I'd think it matters some.

Doesn't matter if you take 2006, or 2011, I'd say both are better than KD's best. Dirk was absolutely lethal in the mid range, KD took and made more 3s, though Dirk's prime sort of ended before the league really took off to what it is now with teams bombing 50 3s a game. Dirk may get hurt more on defense today, but his shooting and shot creation would translate very well. Dirk seemed to have a better understanding of when not to overshoot, Durant would tend to at times look like Melo when his shot was off, go 10-30 and not do much else to make up for it. Those are far and few in between but still. I guess it comes down to who you'd rather have to lead your team to a title, and given what happened, I just find it hard to pick KD.
Not too much to say on scoring, I tend to agree. Dirk is one of the few players to have an argument over peak Durant as a scorer, and I might actually lean Dirk.

That said, I do see Durant as clearly the superior playmaker.
-Peak Durant has 2-3x the PlayVal, ~2x the Box Creation, and better passer rating, and he's still better in these stats in the playoffs.
Great passing often requires film study, and while I don't have the time to do a full film study, I would point out Backpicks' Top 40 project sees Durant as the better passer too (though neither are great). Dirk authored ~0.8 "good" passes per 100 possessions, while Durant authored 2 "good" passes per 100 possessions.

To me, Durant's advantage on defense and playmaking (which are small but clear) are enough to shrink Dirk's advantage in scoring (which is small but clear). I have them quite close, but to me Durant's advantages are enough for me to take him over Dirk, at least for now. They're certainly close enough that I could be swayed by compelling evidence, but I just haven't been convinced yet.

Think people should be careful not to sleep on Tmac as a top 25 candidate here. His statistical peak(2003), compares very well with a guy like Wade or KD, and actually looks a little better than Kobe's. Problem is, it's an outlier season, and outside of 2003 Tmac had a lot of trouble scoring efficiently in the playoffs.
Yeah that's fair, he probably should at least be getting mentions around now considering how many others layers are. And I tend to agree it's likely his multi-year limitations that are his biggest concerns, given how much of an outlier 2003 was.


I generally trust ben taylor film study but i have more doubts here

First, as far as i am aware i dont thinl his passer rating incorporatea turnovers in any meaningful way and even his passing analysis seem to not account for the element much in general, sometimes seemingly focusing too much on interior vs outside passing ratios (the way he talks about passing gives me that bit of an impression)

Which leads to the second point, he seems to focus quite a bit on kind of dimes players throw (quick "touch" passes > passes after handling the ball a bit interior passes to the paint> kick outs to a spot up shooter > keeping the ball running )

Dirk was not only less likely to lose the ball (which even if you dont want to count as part of passing is still kind of a often unacknowledged dirk edge) but he was much quicker to pass the ball back to a teammate if there was not a shot or mismatch for him

This doesnt lead to assists but it keeps the offense moving and triving imo, and dirk was just less of a "ballhog" there

Durant even since his okc days was much more of a dribbler, arguably more than he should have been for his high bounce dribbling and relatively slow reactions to blitzes and pressure on his handle

And in this more "heliocentric" role he was put in more positions to deliver nice assists after a drive compared to the more off ball/finisher dirk. The more you play as a ballhandler attacking the rim the more you will be in position to rack assists

But dirk was the one who actually kept the ball moving more and provided extra off ball value as a screener and ball mover.

I feel semiconfident from game watching that dirk "creation" without the ball and ball movement edge closes the gap with durant ball handler drives to kick outs and lay downs
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #23 

Post#34 » by Proxy » Tue Aug 30, 2022 8:11 pm

Proxy wrote:
Proxy wrote:1. 2020 Anthony Davis
-Explained in other threads

2. 2017 Kevin Durant (2018, 2016, 2014)

-Explained in other threads

^ for those 2:
https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=2219689&start=60#p100925935

3. 2011 Dirk Nowitzki (2010, 2006)
-Argument is somewhat similar to Durant's in some regards which is why he's been brough up a bit when Durant has - All-Time scoring with pretty limited passing, small positive defensive impact, and they've occupied similar positions before. Both also have pretty similar level value indicators throughout their prime in the RS with Dirk's peaking in 2011(2016 for Durant).

While I don't feel as strongly about him as a on-ball playmaker that I do Durant - I think he is still a much worse passer in those circumstances and doesn't have the same dribble penetration that it's limiting enough. He makes up for stuff like this a bit with his spacing/screening value - I think he leveraged his scoring gravity the best this year coupled with a more refined post game and marginally improved passing, and his superb turnover economy+scoring efficiency paired with his massive halfcourt scoring frequency allowed his teams to set up more in the half court defensively by toning down transition offense frequency - so there's some global defense value there. He's probably a more crisp, efficient decision maker in general than Durant when it comes to picking his spots to score and pass, though i'd also say he's more reserved and takes less risks so there's some tradeoff there. My main limiting factor is my lower confidence in his defensive value team-to-team.

4. 2015 Chris Paul (2014, 2008)
-Will probably actually add on him when he gets more traction, but I feel he deserves some mention. I have my reservations when it comes to his offensive ceiling in a PS setting(Think he was too conservative in his decisions on offense and had to basically run everything through himself in his head at least until Houston even with other capable decision makers on his team). Which with his injuries(and others), and in the end, being an only 6'0, limited, guard heavily overrelied on in these situations being part of reasons the Clippers constant PS collapses).

His value seems mostly overstated in the RS - his extreme ball dominance paired with the collinearity in Docs' lineups being one reason why(https://alexwainger.github.io/NBASubstitutionPatterns/), but he's still pretty impressive in pretty much any approach you try - just not looking like a t10 player ever rivaling Steph/Bron in their primes like some APM stuff would lead you to believe(http://nbashotcharts.com/rapm5?id=2031507149) IMO.

Though with his pretty strong offense(I find it somewhat hard to drop him below like a t20 ish offensive player at his peak with his success, at least New Orleans Paul), paired with very strong defense this year(clearly all-defense for a G IMO) I decided give him the edge over my upcoming picks for now even if I feel them to be more reliable offensively. The large defensive edge being why I chose Clippers Paul over New Orleans Paul(I don't see that version as much more than a slight positive vs this one being clearly all-D caliber for a guard to me), I think the offensive gap between those two versions is somewhat notable but really not all that big.

Leaning McGrady, Nash or Moses next, with probably some mix of Frazier, Karl, Barkley, Ewing, Mourning(need to think on this one), and Embiid?
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #23 

Post#35 » by falcolombardi » Tue Aug 30, 2022 10:19 pm

1-1950 george mikan (1951)

As i have said before i dont think there is a right answer to the mikan question of how to evaluate a player who dominated nba early stages when talent pool, game advancement, rules and segregation made it such a different league

But i feel like if we are gonna include him in the project he deserves a placing that more closely indicates how much he dominated the league when he played, otherwise i would prefer to keep pre shot clock seasons out of the project


2-2007 steve nash (2006)

I pick 2007 over 2006 because oh his rather absurd spurs serie but i think either year is a great pick, 2006 has the most impressive regular season leading the suns to a great offense even without amare

I have talked about nash before in this post to explain why i think he may be a (very marginally) better offensive player than curry

Going more in depth. I think criticisms on nash ball dominance or "heliocentrism" are way overstated

Botg because he dominated the ball a lot less than people imagine (people seem to imagine he must have "ball hogged" as much as a luka currently) and because suns offense was way more dinamic than people (and me before rewstching nash suns games) remember it like

If you watch nash suns they are sort of like a reverse motion system.

Instead of having a "static" guy on ball while everyone else cuts/screens the way a team like the warriors do. Nash pushes the pace and makes quick decisions to drive/shot/pass....and he often cancels mid action to improvise somethingh else as everyone else reacts to the advabtage he created

Think running into a leaning jump forward jumper (like a floater but in a 2-handed jumpshot motion) and either hitting it smoothly or throwing a perfect dime on the jump to a cutter who just saw nash do start his jumper and started cutting just in case he gets a pass

Or driving past a big, stopping to freeze the defend, put the big in jail with his back and doing a hand off 2 meters off the rim to a running stoudamire who quicly realized the chance for a hand off dunk

He was not -quite- curry/reggie off ball movement wise but even though he was a on-ball player he was almost always running until he gave up the ball

you rarely saw him walk up the ball slowly or run a slow set. He would always be applying constant pressure in some way and making consistently great quick reads for passing and scoring off the chaos he created

The motion thingh i mention is because diaw,richardson, grant hill, barbosa, marion amd even (and perhaps surprisingly, mainly) stoudamire would "read and react" to nash quickly and cut/spot timely and accurstely to nash moves and then do quick decisions to shoot/pass or drive after receiving his passes

The whole thingh is just so smooth and contradicts the idea that on-ball quarterbacks turn role players into nothingh but lob or 3-point finishers. The suns are a constant moving machine around nash on-ball play in a similar way warriors best offense is a constant movement machine around curry off ball threath

Where a chris paul is like peyton manning running perfectly executed sets, nash is more like a lamar jackson or patrick mahomes. He can run, pass, run pass and you never know which is coming as he is always moving.

That is the best way to describe nash, he is always moving, he just does it more on ball than curry and more than your usual ball handler

You dont create the arguably goat offense relative to era with "just" a 6 foot guard playing pick and roll as everyonr else spots up. Nash is not big enough to just do a lebron through teams and get to the paint to score nonstop. He is a bit too small for that. Instead he achieves this by creating openings consistently that all of his twammates or himself later in the play can exploit to score

Where lebron and curry always "start with white" so to speak. Aka curry and lebron sort of compromise the defense before the play even starts cause their shooting or driving threat is so big that teams react preventively to take that option away. They always play chess with 1 move advantage as far as compromising the defense goes

Nash instead doesnt cause either effect (maybe if he shot mpre 3's today?) As teams didnt guard his 3 as tightly as curry's and he obviously is not lebron going to the paint.

Instead he maximizes his skillset to the max exploiting every small advantage by pushing the pace, using his handles and size to sneak in the paint and put the defense in an awkward position to stop his passing and because he is a more gifted passer/decision maker than curry and even bron. He makes it work. He does thinghs then reacts mid move to the defense reaction and finds somethingh ovet and over.

His motor/agressiveness may be low key as valuable as his mind, handles or jumper. And all these 4 thinghs combine for a perfect package that wouldnt work nearly as well if only one of the 4 thinghs was lesser

I think both are incresible offensive players who created absurd results when they got a coach (D'Antoni and kerr) who had a revolutionary approach based on their skillset.

But of the two it is nash who has the overall better offensive results relative to era and resiliency in my opinion. I suspect because he is faster at adapting to the defense and finding the best way to change the team approach than curry


I think he is a negative in defense due to his small size and frame making him a permanently (negative) mismatch on any player he guards but he ammeliorates this with good effort and rotations

3- 2011 dirk nowitsky (2006)

think the comparisions with durant are interesting and i made a previous post explaining why i prefer dirk

think in a vacuum durant is the most "skilled" player who can do more thinghs than dirk, offensively and defensively, and in general his boxscore reflects that, even the most efficient jumpshooter too (and that is hard to beat dirk at)

But dirk to me just made better use of his slightly less complete gifts to the point his impact may have been greater. A good example is their dribble

Both are flawed dribblers butdurant can do more with his than dirk. But he dribbles a bit more than he should which becomes a issue in the playoffs in most of his non warriors years (and even within the warriors it came up a bit against the rockets)

Dirk in comparision knows exactly what he can do witgout increasing the risk of a turnover too much so he chooses more decisively when to isolate, when to drive if a straight line path opens amd when to just give back the ball and keep the play moving

here i think his post up is more resilient in the playoffs snd more likely to lead to playmaking that durant perimeter or post gsme are, likely a product of better post footwork and strenght (but dursnt got really good with footwork in brooklyn)

Defensively dursnt should be better but i think his defense effort is a tad inconsistent, but i think he may have peaked higher here with his mobility helping as a rim protector

I think is arguably between both, dont disagree with the idea durant is a superior player in a vacuum, but basketball doesnt always work out as it does in vacuums

And leadership intangibles may be a nice tie breaker bonus for durant if it comes to it


Dirk is one of the greatest scoring threats comvos ever eith huge impact as a scorer and as a spacer. He is like a reggie miller with the added benefit of being still a guy you can run on-ball more through his isos (reggie could be a bit easier to contain because of his weakrr on ball threat) AND provide extra off ball value relative to position as a big

His turnover economy, unselfish passing and off ball value as a big are so good on top of his own scoring game that he is one of the few non ball handlers/ non really great passer (he is fine as a passer imo, but not exactly larry bird) with all time level offensive impact. Up there or above the likes of shaq and reggie

Defense was fine although unremarkable, less of a defense weak link than nash although i think nash was better on offense overall

4- 2019 james harden (2018, 2020) one of the best one man army offense players in league history. Notable playoffs drop but he drop down from very high regular season highs. At his best was able to be both an all time level "floor raiser" and combine well results wise with another ballhandlers and offensive co star in more shared roles

I think he is a ok enough defender in that he is not the best off ball defender but holds his own 1vs1 and has surprising ability on "mismatches" in the post against bigger players which has tactical usefulness

My biggest worry i suppose is that unlike other helios (nash, lebron to a lesser degree paul) his team offensive results just seem to fall a notch below and he seems to take a bigger hit in the playoffs. Still his durability in his iron man years puts him over paul for me

5- 2017 kevin durant (2014,2016)

I have touched on it in the dirk write up. I think he had a incredibly wide but not totally deep skillset. Which sometimes makes players fall too much in love with good but not great parts of their games

Like kobe fell too in love at times with his tough shotmaking in lieu of passing back to the next man. Durant fell too in love with his great for a 7 footer dribble (when it was still very susceptible to panic under pressure and still was too high of a dribble) and tried to handle the ball too much as a guard or had such a great iso game that he just settle for it a tad too much at times

2017 was such a ideal situation in all aspects for him including taking a smaller amd more well selected amount of iso or heavy dribblin ballhandling possesion. It was as perfect of a situation as it could be possible, yes but he still gets credit for being such a incredible player under that perfect situation

I think he may be a bit ahead of dirk as a defensive player but dirk is the more reliablw first option by a small degree

6- 2020 anthony davis (2018)

Just one of the most valuable and "portable" seasons ever. Absolutely elite defense, great iso scoring, spacing and elite off-ball skills.

Only reason to not be as high on him is like with paul, he is so fragile he may get injured at really any moment AND is not as reliable being the guy you run your offense through.

Honestly other than durability i dont think his peak is worse than robinson but that may be controversial

His playoffs run was just the stuff of legends so that propels him above paul who om average i have as the better player

7- 2015 chris paul (2014,2008)

One of the best impact profiles ever, plus-minus and offensive team results on the tier of steph curry. But lack of durability is too much of a weakness

Along with health and "ring bias"i think his rep also suffers a bit from a less "sexy" profile than other ballhandlers. Magic and nash had the agressive drives passing and tempo pushing. Turnover reduction and running sets or taking the midrange jumper the defense concedes and hitting 50% at it doesnt have the same sexyness

I think like with moses and his offensive rebounding paul suffers a bit from stylistic doubts

For the record there is less of a "playoff drop" evidence than other plus-minus giants like the already picked robinson. And if we go the route of "better second option" chris paul has thrived in that role in his mid 30's too (2018 rockets, 2021 suns)

8- 1990 patrick ewing (i am starting to sell myself higher on him)

Excellent defender and rim protector, good post defender and solid effort outside the paint and co testing towards the perimeter. In film watching he seems less well positioned than duncan and less mobile than hskeem which is somethinfh we already knew

There is a surprising amount of possesions against bird celtics in the playoffs where he is right st the rim but doesnt position himself well

the one thst sticks to mind is when bird is posting up a knicks wing so ewing comes to help but is "blocked" by said teammate. Ewing just stays there, raises his hands pointlessly and is essentially a pointless prop in bird mismatch post up when if he had reacted a bit more quickly he had enough time to move into a better contesting/block angle

On the offensive end he has a nice post fade. Doesnt use his strenght and footwork as often as i would like and kind of settles for his (very solid) comfort fade too often rather than exploiting other options like duncan would do (i am comparing him to duncan to illustrate the differences with other rim protecting isolationist)

Passing wise he was surprisingly accurate throwing dimes to cutters from the post that wouldnt be out of place in a jokic game. But otherwise he had tons of tunnel vision moments where he tried to isolate even when 2 or 3 players were swarming him

Sometimes he would go so quickly to his pre decided post move (usually a spin fade to the baseline) the double team didnt come in time to do anythingh which was amusing

I would have loved to see him used in the high post more, when he didnt go into post possesions havung already decided he WAS gonna shot he could be very accurate threading the needle to cutters and obviously had a nice jumpshot he could threaten defense with from there to provide spacing to his teammates



9-1983 moses malone

I am gonna do a deep dive on moses when i have time, he is a player i steuggle to rank

10- bob pettit/barkley/malone/reggie come to mind around here

Temptative rankings since i am a bit busy today, will put the reasonings when i get the chance

And yeah i am aware my list is very modern heavy leaning. Part of it is that i am lower than most on players like barkley. Part of it is that i am more famoliarized with 20th century players which is admittedly a weakness of mine when doing a list like this
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #23 

Post#36 » by No-more-rings » Tue Aug 30, 2022 11:01 pm

tone wone wrote:
No-more-rings wrote:I think to keep the KG argument as simple as possible, KG was a guy who at his peak led the league in RAPM two straight seasons and with injuries to his 2nd option still came within 2 wins of beating Shaq & Kobe to go to the finals. I don’t think Paul ever came close to that kind of play over a full season, and Kg’s cast was decent but nothing special. Certainly he’s above Paul as a floor raiser. People always like to bring up his 2018 run as something amazing and it was, but he was more of 2nd option or 1b at best as far as the best player on that team. I don’t think it at all compares to what KG did for Boston in 08, KG was at the end of his prime or slightly past it similar to Paul in 2018.

Idk, I just think they’re different caliber players for peak and prime. I don’t think KG was as good as Duncan but he’s definitely closer to Duncan’s peak than he is Chris Paul or someone like Kevin Durant for that matter.

The Celtics were an ensemble offensively. Is being barely the most important piece in an ensemble any more important than being the #2 in a clearly defined duo?

I dont think Garnett was as important to Boston's offense in 2008 than Paul was to Houston's in 2018.

KG was galaxies better on defense, and still their best player overall easily.
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #23 

Post#37 » by canada_dry » Tue Aug 30, 2022 11:13 pm

tone wone wrote:
AEnigma wrote:Regarding Paul, I think his regular season “impact” is moderately overstated (not that anyone already voting for him or intending to vote for him in the next couple of ballots is likely to agree), and I see him as an even more extreme Embiid case in the postseason (again, not that his current voting bloc seems likely to care much). Worth repeating that Embiid’s postseason “impact” is massive. He has all the plus/minus and on/off and LEBRON/BPM/PIPM/AuPM/whatever arguments people love to use for Chris Paul, and he has managed to be more reliably healthy!

Embiid is essentially Chris' heir when it comes to untimely postseason injuries. That sad mercy kill against Boston in 2020 was the only he started and finished healthy.

In 2021 Paul missed games on the way to his first ever Finals run, but Kawhi was gone too and his team was good enough to win those games (to Paul’s credit, those games were home games in large part because of his regular season). Then in the Finals, Paul struggled to overcome a hand injury while the much maligned Devin Booker was the one more consistently leading the team in plus/minus and either winning his minutes or playing to a draw. We all know 2018. 2016 he missed the later games of the series. 2015 he missed two games against the Rockets, one of which the Rockets narrowly won, and then like the rest of the team had that infamous Game 6 fourth quarter meltdown at home. 2009 he was severely hampered by injury.

Yeah, Paul has awful durability. Its why he's top 25 and not top 15.

And although this was not a consequence of health, probably worth noting that in his best chance at a title with the Clippers he was comfortably outplayed by pre-peak Russell Westbrook and cost his team a game with an all-time stupid turnover.

1. I consider the 2014 playoffs the beginning of Russ' run as a top 8ish player. Maybe not quite his peak level which started in late 2015 but imo much better than 2012 or 2013.
2. Chris was great in that series too. 22/12 61ts% 58efg%, more steals(15) than to's(14). So its his defense under the gun here? Heart of his defensive prime and he couldnt contain Russ at all. okay cant argue against that.

Eight series lost with a lead, six lost with a two-game lead, seven lost as the higher seed… I am not saying he is an outright “choker” in the postseason when healthy, and there is justifiable context behind most and arguably all of those losses, but if he gets all this credit for how good he can look in the regular season, then either we need to think about whether that quality is exaggerated, or we need to consider why that is not carrying over to the postseason and why teams are routinely winning four straight or four of five against him. If it is a flaw in his leadership or his approach or his adaptability, then maybe there is at least some element of truth to those pundits who scoff at the idea he could ever be trusted to captain a team to a championship.

But what is it then? He's not a regular season tiger-postseason kitty. There's no David Robinson fall-off here. His offense doesnt melt in the face of playoff defense. Hell, he even manages to up his scoring most of the time. Is it his pace? Is he too cautious with his passing?
All I see is a tiny pg with the worlds worst hamstrings. Those are his crippling flaws. The reasons he could never captain a championship team.
Eh. 2014 okc had nothing to do with hamstrings. He just plainly choked. It grandfathered the clippers choking in the future, as everyone got shook from that point on. You have guys like Jared Dudley tell it, the clippers were never the same after that. 2015 vs houston looks even worse for cp3 than it already did in that lense.

2017 game 7, played the first 6 games very well against a not that good jazz team. 13 points on 31% shooting in the biggest game tho. No hamstring issues there.

2018 there definitely was hamstring issues lol.

2019 what was the excuse when there was no kd, everyone expected the rockets to win, and he played so badly it made people think his all star days are far behind him now? Hamstrings? Or just being badly outplayed by steph once again?

2021 nba finals whyd he lose another 2-0 series lead and just lost 4 games in a row again?

2022 against dallas, coming off a closeout game against NOP where he shot perfectly, looked fine physically...then what happened? Between that game and game 3 of the dallas series? What exactly happened? We still don't know. But he played like crap and averaged 9 ppg and 5 assists on almost 4 turnovers and 4 fouls a game. Just awful.

You cant just throw all this to hamstring issues. Its dishonest.

The truth of the matter is as the best player healthy or not cp3 cant get you out of the second round. Other great point guards, like the one being compared to him in this thread in steve nash, could lose his best scorer and still carry you to within 2 games of the finals despite playing on a team with a 7 man rotation. That HAS to count for something. It just has to.

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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #23 

Post#38 » by SinceGatlingWasARookie » Tue Aug 30, 2022 11:16 pm

What is the difference between a peak and a streak and what is the difference between a peak and prime?
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #23 

Post#39 » by falcolombardi » Tue Aug 30, 2022 11:24 pm

SinceGatlingWasARookie wrote:What is the difference between a peak and a streak and what is the difference between a peak and prime?



Peak-absolute best year/s

Prime- part of a player career where he is reasonably close to his best

Jordan peak is roughly 89-91

Jordan prime is roughly 87-96~

98 jordan may or may not be part of his prime but 2002 jordan definetely is not
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Re: Greatest Peaks Project (2022): #23 

Post#40 » by LukaTheGOAT » Tue Aug 30, 2022 11:36 pm

AEnigma wrote:
LukaTheGOAT wrote:
AEnigma wrote:If you are going to ask that, you probably want to define “hardcore evidence” and “different stratosphere”. DraymondGold has been going over some of the “impact” numbers if that is your idea of “hardcore evidence”. And I would say putting up that type of fight against the Lakers in 2004 after having one of the all-time MVP seasons is a “different stratosphere” from any particular achievement of Paul’s.

I do not think Garnett has the most exemplary postseason history, but his defensive ability is a relative constant, plenty of work has gone into showing the ways his comparatively off-ball offensive game boosts teammates even when struggling to score at his regular season levels, and dozens of pages of analysis have been written comparing him favourably to our darling Tim Duncan. If in 2008 we swap Rondo and Garnett for Paul and some Rondo-equivalent power forward, are you confident the results would be the same or better? Garnett profiles as a true maximiser, in much the same way as Bill Walton. Can we say the same for Paul?

The PS impact almost unanimously lean CP3 in terms of PS impact so the numbers would not be the way to go.

Well that is not really true lol, but that is also conflating “impact” with “performance”. Unless you are referring to team results and saying Paul’s teams performed better, but then you basically need to ignore Garnett’s deeper runs in favour of how Paul was doing over the course of his second round matchups (somewhat famously against teams which always went on to lose the following round :oops:).

And Garnett lead offenses have just generally been lukewarm historically in the PS (those Minnesots teams were offensively slanted albeit still not great).

Why would we be asking for more than that from Garnett? I am asking more of Paul because his comparison is Nash and tbh Paul’s teammates were at least comparably offensively inclined as Nash’s were, and if we concede offence to Nash (as we should), then Paul’s vaunted defensive impact advantage no longer looks like too much in the postseason. None of that really applies to Garnett.

I credit KG for being arguably best defensive anchor of the modern era after Hakeem,

Okay so where is the problem.

however I still don't love his offense, even in a #2 rope. I think he always has scoring efficiency issues except in maybe rare circumstances with a special PG/playmaker. I prefer a David Robinson actually in a #2 role, who can still get to the line and approximate 80% of what KG can do as a passer/spacer while being one of the GOAT lob targets.

That is theoretically fine I guess — I think Garnett offers a more consistent baseline against stronger defences and is a lot more trustworthy at running an offence when this hypothetical #1 offensive leader sits, but different strokes — but that is not really relevant to this random Paul comparison. I am still unsure of what your intended parametres are or why you are interested in contrasting these two radically different players and career arcs.

Like if you are pushing back on Garnett having a top fifteen postseason run in a vacuum and abstractly using that to argue we should push back on postseason reliance for Paul, I mean I guess I follow the approach, but it just seems like a weird one unless you have a more specific criticism of how Garnett handled the postseason — because plenty of his actual supporters do see him as a top fifteen or even top ten postseason performer and as someone whose only real disadvantage to Duncan is some contextually mild scoring decline.


I meant to write the PS impact numbers are almost unanimously in Paul's favor in terms of Peak. But this guess I just feel like the idea that KG was that level of PS performer is just not true to me. His offense is a sore spot; simply less than ideal shot-selection because of inability to create his own shot. I credit KG being able to stay healthy longer during a PS run (although it's not like KG had Manu during prime if we are to nitpick).

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