How many years of Durant over Peak Anthony Davis?

[Jaivl]

Are we just ignoring the 193 regular season games where he destroys the league from 2018-2020 that have basically the same production as the 30 playoff games? I think that's a pretty good sample size to me.

Does Davis have a 200 game sample of him shooting +55% from midrange while mostly generating his own shots from there, plus +38% from three and +80% at rim? Damn.

Does Durant have a 200 game sample of being one of the five or so best defenders in the league?

Of course not. Your point being?

[AEnigma]

Does Davis have a 200 game sample of him shooting +55% from midrange while mostly generating his own shots from there, plus +38% from three and +80% at rim? Damn.

Does Durant have a 200 game sample of being one of the five or so best defenders in the league?

Of course not. Your point being?

I mistakenly thought you were referring to Durant (circa 2017) rather than to a consistently acknowledged single postseason hot streak.

Yes, Davis had an extremely uncharacteristic four series run where he basically scored like Golden State Durant. He was still an excellent postseason and regular season player outside of that shooting explosion, primarily because he combines a capable offball scoring profile with that aforementioned defensive excellence.

[MyUniBroDavis]

5+ I'm lower on Davis's peak than others and I say that as someone who doesn't even rate his Brooklyn tenure

Yeah I'm not interested in trying to break this down by each exact year, but I'd take the typical KD prime season over anything I've ever seen from AD. AD is a theory player never a fully realized one, other than maybe the bubble playoffs.

What do you mean by theory player?

I think people do overdo it at times analyzing ADs game, but I think it’s valid to say that AD is a player whose primary strengths (offensively) have never been optimized, in the sense that he’s probably better off ball than on ball.

Otoh, he’s pretty consistently been in lineups with horrible spacing or without a pick and roll ball handler where the primary option is to either switch or drop, and pretty much he’s been turned into more of a post scoring big cuz of gentry which made his 2016 and 2017 offense pretty bleh.

Like I think it’s fair optimized AD isn’t something we’ve really seen, outside of maybe 2015 where he was far inferior overall in terms of his actual basketball ability despite his impact being near top of the league level. I feel theory player has a connotation of a guy that looks good in theory but isn’t in actuality, whereas this is more of a case where it happened once and they went away from it imo, and a lot of circumstances have gone against him

I agree the bubble run (to a lesser extent 2018 too) is d the year that’s arguable here, but it’s pretty harsh to say any prime Kd season over that. Bubble AD in terms of pure level of play is probably a top 10 type of run

[Texas Chuck]

What do you mean by theory player?

So when AD was the first pick in the draft, this board said he was the next KG. Then his offense was way better than anticipated and if you were on this board 6 years ago, multiple posters were already projecting AD to be the best player of all-time. Except his offense was never as great as the volume/efficiency numbers suggested and the defense (again other than the bubble) certainly never approached KG.

But a lot of people still act like this is DPOY-level guy who gives you 25 ppg on high efficiency thus he must also be an offensive anchor. But New Orleans offenses peaked at slightly above average and in LA we've see that Lebron has been the driver of offensive success not AD.
'
His tools suggest best player in the world. But his actual game has always fallen short of that. Still a great player obviously, but KD is a borderline MVP player or better for his prime years. I've never had a year where I though AD was a serious MVP candidate. His only top 3 finish was in 2018 but even that year its hard for me to argue he was better than Durant was.

[sp6r=underrated]

Does Durant have a 200 game sample of being one of the five or so best defenders in the league?

Of course not. Your point being?

I mistakenly thought you were referring to Durant (circa 2017) rather than to a consistently acknowledged single postseason hot streak.

Yes, Davis had an extremely uncharacteristic four series run where he basically scored like Golden State Durant. He was still an excellent postseason and regular season player outside of that shooting explosion, primarily because he combines a capable offball scoring profile with that aforementioned defensive excellence.

Davis is not a top 5 defender.

[AEnigma]

Of course not. Your point being?

I mistakenly thought you were referring to Durant (circa 2017) rather than to a consistently acknowledged single postseason hot streak.

Yes, Davis had an extremely uncharacteristic four series run where he basically scored like Golden State Durant. He was still an excellent postseason and regular season player outside of that shooting explosion, primarily because he combines a capable offball scoring profile with that aforementioned defensive excellence.

Davis is not a top 5 defender.

Not anymore, but he was from 2015-20 and was the best defender to not win DPoY during that period. Fourth in voting in 2015 (second team all-defence because of Kawhi and Draymond), third in 2018 (first team, plus another second team in 2017), second in 2020 (first team obv), and carried it into the playoffs each time.

[Ron Swanson]

I'd still probably take Durant but I really don't get this weird "theoretical player" stuff with AD at all. Maybe the Pelicans weren't on national TV enough, but did this many people just sleepwalk through 2014-19 when Davis was healthy and no less than a consistent Top 5-6 player in the world? We're talking about a 400+ game sample size where he put up the following:

24/10/2/2 on 58% TS, 27.4 PER, .214 WS/48, +6.1 on/off (+7.5 PS), while regularly finishing in the Top-10 of most impact metrics (RPM, RAPTOR, EPM). And that's taking into account his age 19 and 20 seasons which drag his overall numbers down. Limit it to his best 3-year stretch before the Lakers trade, and he's a 28/11/2.5 on +60% TS and 29 PER guy on +10 per-100 on/off impact.

Beyond your own personal stylistic preferences, I'm not sure there's an argument out there that he wasn't a legitimate MVP-caliber player for those years, unless you just completely dismiss the numbers, or overly fault him for some pretty flawed roster construction.

[Texas Chuck]

I'd still probably take Durant but I really don't get this weird "theoretical player" stuff with AD at all. Maybe the Pelicans weren't on national TV enough, but did this many people just sleepwalk through 2014-19 when Davis was healthy and no less than a consistent Top 5-6 player in the world? We're talking about a 400+ game sample size where he put up the following:

24/10/2/2 on 58% TS, 27.4 PER, .214 WS/48, +6.1 on/off (+7.5 PS), while regularly finishing in the Top-10 of most impact metrics (RPM, RAPTOR, EPM). And that's taking into account his age 19 and 20 seasons which drag his overall numbers down. Limit it to his best 3-year stretch before the Lakers trade, and he's a 28/11/2.5 on +60% TS and 29 PER guy on +10 per-100 on/off impact.

Beyond your own personal stylistic preferences, I'm not sure there's an argument out there that he wasn't a legitimate MVP-caliber player for those years, unless you just completely dismiss the numbers, or overly fault him for some pretty flawed roster construction.

You can quote me.

And my stylistic preference would be for AD over KD, by no small margin. But who the better player has been is KD, also by no small margin.

Trust me one of my soapboxes is choosing impact over style. I am the guy fighting against the Curry/Kerr are the heroes we needed narrative or the look KG can do so many nifty things lets ignore Duncan was better at basketball.

But my point is AD has rarely put it all together at both ends. And even when he's putting up great individual scoring numbers it wasn't always elevating the offenses of his teams. Kevin Martin scored a bunch of points at great efficiency every single year, but nothing about how he did it was helping his teammates. He was just making 3's and going to the FT line a lot.

And as stated several times already I'm not saying AD wasn't a terrific player. Of course he was. But the comparison here isn't to random all-star its KD. Who is better.

[AEnigma]

I'd still probably take Durant but I really don't get this weird "theoretical player" stuff with AD at all. Maybe the Pelicans weren't on national TV enough, but did this many people just sleepwalk through 2014-19 when Davis was healthy and no less than a consistent Top 5-6 player in the world? We're talking about a 400+ game sample size where he put up the following:

24/10/2/2 on 58% TS, 27.4 PER, .214 WS/48, +6.1 on/off (+7.5 PS), while regularly finishing in the Top-10 of most impact metrics (RPM, RAPTOR, EPM). And that's taking into account his age 19 and 20 seasons which drag his overall numbers down. Limit it to his best 3-year stretch before the Lakers trade, and he's a 28/11/2.5 on +60% TS and 29 PER guy on +10 per-100 on/off impact.

Beyond your own personal stylistic preferences, I'm not sure there's an argument out there that he wasn't a legitimate MVP-caliber player for those years, unless you just completely dismiss the numbers, or overly fault him for some pretty flawed roster construction.

You can quote me.

And my stylistic preference would be for AD over KD, by no small margin. But who the better player has been is KD, also by no small margin.

Trust me one of my soapboxes is choosing impact over style. I am the guy fighting against the Curry/Kerr are the heroes we needed narrative or the look KG can do so many nifty things lets ignore Duncan was better at basketball.

But my point is AD has rarely put it all together at both ends. And even when he's putting up great individual scoring numbers it wasn't always elevating the offenses of his teams. Kevin Martin scored a bunch of points at great efficiency every single year, but nothing about how he did it was helping his teammates. He was just making 3's and going to the FT line a lot.

And as stated several times already I'm not saying AD wasn't a terrific player. Of course he was. But the comparison here isn't to random all-star its KD. Who is better.

Durant is a better offensive player, and no one disputes that. Davis is a substantially better defensive player. You do not just get to handwave that away.

[Texas Chuck]

I'd still probably take Durant but I really don't get this weird "theoretical player" stuff with AD at all. Maybe the Pelicans weren't on national TV enough, but did this many people just sleepwalk through 2014-19 when Davis was healthy and no less than a consistent Top 5-6 player in the world? We're talking about a 400+ game sample size where he put up the following:

24/10/2/2 on 58% TS, 27.4 PER, .214 WS/48, +6.1 on/off (+7.5 PS), while regularly finishing in the Top-10 of most impact metrics (RPM, RAPTOR, EPM). And that's taking into account his age 19 and 20 seasons which drag his overall numbers down. Limit it to his best 3-year stretch before the Lakers trade, and he's a 28/11/2.5 on +60% TS and 29 PER guy on +10 per-100 on/off impact.

Beyond your own personal stylistic preferences, I'm not sure there's an argument out there that he wasn't a legitimate MVP-caliber player for those years, unless you just completely dismiss the numbers, or overly fault him for some pretty flawed roster construction.

You can quote me.

And my stylistic preference would be for AD over KD, by no small margin. But who the better player has been is KD, also by no small margin.

Trust me one of my soapboxes is choosing impact over style. I am the guy fighting against the Curry/Kerr are the heroes we needed narrative or the look KG can do so many nifty things lets ignore Duncan was better at basketball.

But my point is AD has rarely put it all together at both ends. And even when he's putting up great individual scoring numbers it wasn't always elevating the offenses of his teams. Kevin Martin scored a bunch of points at great efficiency every single year, but nothing about how he did it was helping his teammates. He was just making 3's and going to the FT line a lot.

And as stated several times already I'm not saying AD wasn't a terrific player. Of course he was. But the comparison here isn't to random all-star its KD. Who is better.

Durant is a better offensive player, and no one disputes that. Davis is a substantially better defensive player. You do not just get to handwave that away.

I have no problems with you holding me accountable, but I'm going to need you to point out where a single time I hand-waved away AD being better at defense.

I have stated elsewhere that I don't think AD has been a DPOY defender outside of small samples, but I have acknowledged plenty he is a superior defender to KD.

Again, my position has been I think KD has been better than AD. Not that he is better at everything. Not that AD sucks. Just that in comparing KD to AD, I choose KD.

[Ron Swanson]

I'd still probably take Durant but I really don't get this weird "theoretical player" stuff with AD at all. Maybe the Pelicans weren't on national TV enough, but did this many people just sleepwalk through 2014-19 when Davis was healthy and no less than a consistent Top 5-6 player in the world? We're talking about a 400+ game sample size where he put up the following:

24/10/2/2 on 58% TS, 27.4 PER, .214 WS/48, +6.1 on/off (+7.5 PS), while regularly finishing in the Top-10 of most impact metrics (RPM, RAPTOR, EPM). And that's taking into account his age 19 and 20 seasons which drag his overall numbers down. Limit it to his best 3-year stretch before the Lakers trade, and he's a 28/11/2.5 on +60% TS and 29 PER guy on +10 per-100 on/off impact.

Beyond your own personal stylistic preferences, I'm not sure there's an argument out there that he wasn't a legitimate MVP-caliber player for those years, unless you just completely dismiss the numbers, or overly fault him for some pretty flawed roster construction.

You can quote me.

And my stylistic preference would be for AD over KD, by no small margin. But who the better player has been is KD, also by no small margin.

Trust me one of my soapboxes is choosing impact over style. I am the guy fighting against the Curry/Kerr are the heroes we needed narrative or the look KG can do so many nifty things lets ignore Duncan was better at basketball.

But my point is AD has rarely put it all together at both ends. And even when he's putting up great individual scoring numbers it wasn't always elevating the offenses of his teams. Kevin Martin scored a bunch of points at great efficiency every single year, but nothing about how he did it was helping his teammates. He was just making 3's and going to the FT line a lot.

And as stated several times already I'm not saying AD wasn't a terrific player. Of course he was. But the comparison here isn't to random all-star its KD. Who is better.

I don't disagree with a lot of this, but I think the "I never viewed AD as an MVP caliber player" is the sticking point for me. I would say most players don't really have their best offensive and defensive seasons align, so I think the "he never figured it out on both ends" to be a sort of weird criticism based on this expectation that he needed to be some two-way monster. I'd agree that we never saw Davis play at a true DPOTY level, but I'd argue he was certainly elite on both ends for a multi-year stretch.

Again, Durant has a pretty easy argument based solely on his one GOAT-level skill (uber-efficient shot-creation), but no one ever really champions him as an impact stats guy for some obvious reasons. Durant the vastly superior scorer, Davis the vastly superior defender/rebounder, while I've never been impressed with either guy as a play-maker/passer, assist numbers in KD's favor be damned.

[MyUniBroDavis]

What do you mean by theory player?

So when AD was the first pick in the draft, this board said he was the next KG. Then his offense was way better than anticipated and if you were on this board 6 years ago, multiple posters were already projecting AD to be the best player of all-time. Except his offense was never as great as the volume/efficiency numbers suggested and the defense (again other than the bubble) certainly never approached KG.

But a lot of people still act like this is DPOY-level guy who gives you 25 ppg on high efficiency thus he must also be an offensive anchor. But New Orleans offenses peaked at slightly above average and in LA we've see that Lebron has been the driver of offensive success not AD.
'
His tools suggest best player in the world. But his actual game has always fallen short of that. Still a great player obviously, but KD is a borderline MVP player or better for his prime years. I've never had a year where I though AD was a serious MVP candidate. His only top 3 finish was in 2018 but even that year its hard for me to argue he was better than Durant was.

I feel the hype in 2015 was justified, in terms of where it seemed like his career was going at the age he was at (maybe not GOAT but he was on an all time trajectory) with how much room he had to improve

Then 2016 and 2017 his role completely changed from what it was at the time (a more off ball type) to a more on ball post scorer, and since his abilities in that regard weren’t great and his playmaking from the post against help was pretty weak those years his offensive impact wasn’t there. His defensive impact in 2016 too, since he gained weight way too fast and looked a step slow.

2018 I would say he was up there, in terms of high impact DPOY level play, esp when cousins left and he took more of a role on offense

2019 was a potential year, in the sense that his passing went up a notch, but then you had a lot of issues with his effort since he basically left by then

And then 2020 I feel the team construction was horrible around him but the bubble run was all time great

I would say he’s more a victim of circumstances, not neccessarily “oh the team sucks” but outside of 2015, where it was hardly optimal in any regard, he’s a guy who has clear strengths, but offensively has been misused for most of his prime, and we have evidence for how good a much inferior AD was when used more correctly

I think 2015, 2018, and 2020 AD all have an argument in their own ways over at least durants worser years. If he maintained the bubble run over a whole year (big if of course) that probably is in the upper echelon of best seasons all time, so it’s hard to not put 2020 AD above some of KDs worser years for that

[OhayoKD]

It's hard to dispute that in terms of level of play 2020 davis is well beyond anything durant's ever done

[sp6r=underrated]

It's hard to dispute that in terms of level of play 2020 davis is well beyond anything durant's ever done

I'd dispute it. Comfortably.

[Eagle4]

Peak Durant was superior to 2020 or what most are calling peak AD. The scoring/ shot making plus playmaking KD possesses just puts him over AD. Sure AD was a fringe DPOY but Durant himself was all nba defense caliber. I'd take like at least 2-3 seasons of Durant over peak AD tbh.

I can see 2020 AD start to get a lil overrated as time goes by.

[AEnigma]

Durant himself was all nba defense caliber

A great example of how quickly narratives can grab a hold in the minds of passively attentive fans. Draymond gassed an insecure teammate to an extent that the media spent a week or two talking about how he was blocking a few more shots than he did in Oklahoma City, and now forevermore some people will pretend all-defensive recognition was ever a justifiable possibility.

[LukaTheGOAT]

What do you mean by theory player?

So when AD was the first pick in the draft, this board said he was the next KG. Then his offense was way better than anticipated and if you were on this board 6 years ago, multiple posters were already projecting AD to be the best player of all-time. Except his offense was never as great as the volume/efficiency numbers suggested and the defense (again other than the bubble) certainly never approached KG.

But a lot of people still act like this is DPOY-level guy who gives you 25 ppg on high efficiency thus he must also be an offensive anchor. But New Orleans offenses peaked at slightly above average and in LA we've see that Lebron has been the driver of offensive success not AD.
'
His tools suggest best player in the world. But his actual game has always fallen short of that. Still a great player obviously, but KD is a borderline MVP player or better for his prime years. I've never had a year where I though AD was a serious MVP candidate. His only top 3 finish was in 2018 but even that year its hard for me to argue he was better than Durant was.

Interesting criticism.

Kevin Garnett team offenses in Minnesota

In the 2000 PS, the Wolves had a +4 rORTG.

In the 01 PS, the Wolves had a -3.5 raw rORTG.

In the O2 PS, the Wolves had a -0.7 raw rORTG.

In the 03 PS, the Wolves had a -0.4 raw rORTG.

In the 04 PS, the Wolves had a 1.2, -5.1, and 2.7 raw rORTG.


Anthony Davis on the other hand

In the 15 PS, the Wolves had a 3.8 raw rORTG against the best defense in the league.

In 18, the Pelicans had a +8.4, and -7.3 raw rORTG the first and second rounds.

So even in Davis' short time in the PS, he was able to lift the Pelicans offense to decent heights despite his team being outmatched.

Garnett team offenses were not necessarily better in the PS than Davis with both of them as lead guys. And honestly, I think you could prefer Davis as a #2 due to offensive rebounding, being arguably the GOAT lob threat, ability come off pindowns, and better isolation scoring ability (based on my eye).

Garnett arguably never had a series as good as 15 Davis did on the offensive end considering the circumstances. Davis averaging 28.4 pts per 75 possessions on a rTS% of 8.9%

[rk2023]

It's very hard to say, considering their impact metrics aren't quite hand-in-hand, especially when accounting for situation with both being ceiling raisers, and AD using his defense to exert that value far more.

I would believe 16-19 Durant maybe 13 14 21 22 but not quite (21 being similar to 22, yes matchups matter), would be over 20 AD no matter how much stock you put in the bubble and AD's all time great run coming under 1 for 1 circumstances.

I could see why one could argue AD over, however...
Even in the Pelicans days from the 14-15 through 18-19 seasons, Davis had some very impressive scoring rates consistently above the league average and decently high on-offs on both sides of the floor. Would his motor have looked better defensively next to an all-time great offensive piece like LeBron? Maybe, you could make that argument. What I am impressed with regarding Davis is how his scoring seems to consistently mesh with star talent. Being a great play finisher, lob threat, and innately having so many field goals assisted gives Davis the opportunity to scale his scoring very well. Having him as a secondary option (even tertiary perhaps) could provide as high a ceiling as KD in various situations

[OhayoKD]

It's hard to dispute that in terms of level of play 2020 davis is well beyond anything durant's ever done

I'd dispute it. Comfortably.

You're welcome to try. But Davis scored on similar volume/effiency on a team with bad spacing as Kd managed on the 73 win warriors so unless you want to push teriary creation as more valuable than atg defense, i'm not sure how you go about this.

[OhayoKD]

Peak Durant was superior to 2020 or what most are calling peak AD. The scoring/ shot making plus playmaking KD possesses just puts him over AD. Sure AD was a fringe DPOY but Durant himself was all nba defense caliber. I'd take like at least 2-3 seasons of Durant over peak AD tbh.

I can see 2020 AD start to get a lil overrated as time goes by.

The scoring/shot making placed his effiency and volume on the same level as 20 AD's despite kd playing with much better spacing and stronger creators.

But by all means, explain why you think kd's terriary playmaking and ball-handling was more valuable than davis putting one of the best defensive performances ever.

"all-nba" kd didn't signifcantly affect the warriors defense so i don't think it's going to bridge the gap