LeBron vs Curry looking only at 14-15 season to now

[Colbinii]

I suppose I'll do the year-by-year.

'14-15: Curry
'15-16: LeBron
'16-17: Curry
'17-18: Curry
'18-19: Curry
'19-20: LeBron
'20-21: Curry
'21-22: Curry

Big point of conversation here is how we judge '16-17 & '17-18. Understandable why people would pick LeBron here, but Curry did win the title. That doesn't clinch the comparison obviously, but it's not something I brush aside lightly.

Doc - How close is 16 for you? LeBron closed strong in the Finals, but hard to ignore Curry’s season there. Also the controversy of the Draymond suspension tints valuation for me.

If he focused on that then he would also likely side with 15, 17 and 18 LeBron to Curry.

[RCM88x]

I think 2018 is clearly Lebron to me, I don't really see any credible argument in Curry's favor there honestly.

The only other year that can't be argued for me is 2020, everything else I guess is up for contention.

[PaulieWal]

2015: Curry
2016: Curry
2017: Curry
2018: Curry
2019: Curry
2020: LeBron
2021: Curry
2022: Curry
2023: Curry

I really miss the old fpliii who was fun, logical, and someone I wanted to have a beer with.

[MisterHibachi]

So I'm going to post some raw +/- stuff. Take it for what you will:

Regular Season cumes for this period:

1. Curry +5103
2. Green +4075
9. LeBron +2683

Playoffs:

1. Green +971
2. Curry +894
3. LeBron +654

All-Season:

1. Curry +6005
2. Green +5044
7. LeBron +3336

What analytical value does raw +/- have, Doc?

[Cavsfansince84]

The issue with how a lot of you are comparing them(year by year) is you are basically saying that there is a similar gap between the two of them in 2020 where one played in like 6 rs games while the other had one of his better all around rs and ps(which is saying something when its LeBron) while winning a fmvp as there is between in a season such as 2017 if you are giving it to Steph(which can be argued for LeBron). fwiw LeBron was named player of the year on this board every year from 2016-18 so its pretty easy to argue those years for him.

[MyUniBroDavis]

15 Stephen Curry
16 Draymond
17 Stephan Curry
18 Stephen
19 Stephan
20 Curry (extremely close)
21 Former Davidson College Point Guard Stephen Wardell Curry
22 Wardell
23 Warriors Point guard


Curry gets 2019, 2021 and 2022 imo. I see the argument for 2015 though.

17 and 18 are close if you didn’t live through them or watch the season I guess

I don’t know why anyone is talking about 2016 lmao

[OhayoKD]

I would go Bron, because that 16-18 peak in particular. I think that is a level that Curry never reached in terms of PS play. Also, Curry virtually not having a 2020 season hurts a bit, but I do think he makes up ground with a 5-4 year advantage of being better Lebron in my estimation:

15-Steph
16-Lebron
17-Lebron
18-Lebron
19-Steph
20-Lebron
21-Steph
22-Steph
23-Steph

From 15-22 in the PS (6 PS), Lebron's impact metrics look like the following:

Backpicks BPM-8.3

PS AuPM/G-5.8

BPM-10.4


For reference,

Steph in half-time that time (3-year time span) during this span, has 3-year peaks of the following:

Backpicks BPM-6.9

PS AuPM/G-5.2

BPM-8.5

Lebron over that sample, outperformed Curry's best 3-year stretches on a per-possession basis. I think that is notable, and shows how Lebron was able to sustain a higher level of play over a longer period.

It's hard to get numbers for the exact time period in play (15-23), but I think that gives you a decent starting point for where the belief of Lebron>Steph would come from.

Some other additional numbers:

2015-2020 PS PIPM

Lebron-7.37 (#1 over this span)

Steph-3.95 (#8 over this span)


14-18 RAPM

Lebron-5.18 (#2 over this span)

Steph-3.62 (#5 over this span)


15-19 RAPM

Lebron-4.96 (#2 over this span)

Steph-3.84 (#7 over this span)

Overall, Lebron lead offenses peaked higher as well during this period, and with his defense being generally being elite, I will side with him.

If you look at shorter peak PS stretches such as single year or 3-year PS stretches, I think once again, Lebron comes out looking stronger. According Backpicks, the 2015-17 Cavs have the 3rd best unique offensive PS stretch for relative offensive rating, and keep in mind Lebron did not have a healthy Kyrie or KLove for much of the 2015 PS. This once surpasses the Warriors offensive performance.

If you don't like using relative offensive rating to judge playoff offense, there is another method called common offensive rating.
Common offensive rating is comparing a team’s postseason play to other teams against that same given opponent (for that particular PS). The rORTG is also listed on the side too for those who, where a team’s playoff offensive rating is compared to it’s opponent’s regular season defensive ratings. The Cavs have the best common offensive rating of the time period.

The best 3-year offenses and defense (minimum of 20 games played across three postseason trips), we see the following unique team peaks in playoff offense per common offensive rating (cORTG) via Backpicks since 1984 (but only other potential contenders would be if you go back to Mikan days).

Team Year cORTG rORTG
CLE 2015-17 13.0 9.5


MIA 2012-14 9.7 8.7

LAL 1987-89 9.4 9


CHI 1991-93 8.8 8.4

CHI 1994-96 8.3 6.9

Lebron's offenses come out looking better under this approach as well. The 2016 Cavs (+15.3 cORTG) and 2017 Cavs (+14.6) have the two highest single-season offensive marks using this approach. Under the 3-year guise, the Cavs would be at least #1 going back to 1984.

Off course this is all offense-slanted and per-possession. 2015 is clearly more impactful if you value the playoffs at al.

[ceiling raiser]

2015: Curry
2016: Curry
2017: Curry
2018: Curry
2019: Curry
2020: LeBron
2021: Curry
2022: Curry
2023: Curry

I really miss the old fpliii who was fun, logical, and someone I wanted to have a beer with.

I’ve said very recently I have LeBron as my GOAT, mostly on the basis of his career in Cleveland (first stint) and Miami, and given how long he’s been a top 5 player. Doesn’t mean I have to think he’s better post-peak than peak Curry, who I have as a borderline top five player all-time.

[TheLand13]

This is insane you can exclude 11 seasons of LeBron (4x MVP, 2x Finals MVP) in the best days athletically of him and it's still very arguable that he was better than borderline top10 player ever (Curry) impact-wise.

Just longevity stats some people say...

Curry better RS performer, LeBron better PS performer is a comfortable assessment to make here.

Not only that, you’re also excluding all of his all defense selection seasons, two of which he was second in DPOY voting.

I think some people forget just how good LeBron was.

[No-more-rings]

2015: Curry
2016: Curry
2017: Curry
2018: Curry
2019: Curry
2020: LeBron
2021: Curry
2022: Curry
2023: Curry

I really miss the old fpliii who was fun, logical, and someone I wanted to have a beer with.

I’ve said very recently I have LeBron as my GOAT, mostly on the basis of his career in Cleveland (first stint) and Miami, and given how long he’s been a top 5 player. Doesn’t mean I have to think he’s better post-peak than peak Curry, who I have as a borderline top five player all-time.

Calling Curry a borderline top 5 all time player is a bit of a hot take though, even among hardcore Curry fans. Even setting aside Lebron and Jordan who are clearly better, he has a tall order getting there when you look at all the bigs like Wilt, Duncan, Kareem, Shaq, Hakeem and Russell. Curry is not clearly better than Bird or Magic either for that matter.

[ceiling raiser]

I really miss the old fpliii who was fun, logical, and someone I wanted to have a beer with.

I’ve said very recently I have LeBron as my GOAT, mostly on the basis of his career in Cleveland (first stint) and Miami, and given how long he’s been a top 5 player. Doesn’t mean I have to think he’s better post-peak than peak Curry, who I have as a borderline top five player all-time.

Calling Curry a borderline top 5 all time player is a bit of a hot take though, even among hardcore Curry fans. Even setting aside Lebron and Jordan who are clearly better, he has a tall order getting there when you look at all the bigs like Wilt, Duncan, Kareem, Shaq, Hakeem and Russell. Curry is not clearly better than Bird or Magic either for that matter.

I’ve become a bit lower on a lot of the bigs recently. Current top 5 all-time for me is probably

LeBron
Jordan
Duncan
Kareem
Magic

with Curry knocking on the door.

[OhayoKD]

So I'm going to post some raw +/- stuff. Take it for what you will:

Regular Season cumes for this period:

1. Curry +5103
2. Green +4075
9. LeBron +2683

Playoffs:

1. Green +971
2. Curry +894
3. LeBron +654

All-Season:

1. Curry +6005
2. Green +5044
7. LeBron +3336

What analytical value does raw +/- have, Doc?

None. But Lebron smokes if you include the "off" bit, sooooo

[OhayoKD]

I’ve said very recently I have LeBron as my GOAT, mostly on the basis of his career in Cleveland (first stint) and Miami, and given how long he’s been a top 5 player. Doesn’t mean I have to think he’s better post-peak than peak Curry, who I have as a borderline top five player all-time.

Calling Curry a borderline top 5 all time player is a bit of a hot take though, even among hardcore Curry fans. Even setting aside Lebron and Jordan who are clearly better, he has a tall order getting there when you look at all the bigs like Wilt, Duncan, Kareem, Shaq, Hakeem and Russell. Curry is not clearly better than Bird or Magic either for that matter.

I’ve become a bit lower on a lot of the bigs recently. Current top 5 all-time for me is probably

LeBron
Jordan
Duncan
Kareem
Magic

with Curry knocking on the door.

Care to elaborate on why? Bigs consistently look the most valuable and paint-protection is the skill that seems to mantain the best year to year and context to context(Kareem, Lebron, and Russell do the best in terms of individual "replication", Russell and Duncan experienced the most consistent team success).

If anything it's scoring guards who seem to perform the worst relative to their box-profiles and require specific situations to maximize their potential.

As it is, post-peak Lebron(30-32) and post-post peak Lebron(2020) still looks like the most valuable player since Kareem/Russell emperically and post-post-post-post peak Lebron(2023) basically swept steph in all the regular season stuff as 21-23 Lebron generally looks comparable per-possession as 21-23 Steph. No "post-peak" Lebron does not have to be better than steph, but I'd like a case for it beyond "he's old".

Honestly, I'd be impressed if you could make a solid case for steph against 2020 Lebron who looked all-time valuable in the regular season before scaling up in the postseason.

[LukaTheGOAT]

2015: Curry
2016: Curry
2017: Curry
2018: Curry
2019: Curry
2020: LeBron
2021: Curry
2022: Curry
2023: Curry

I really miss the old fpliii who was fun, logical, and someone I wanted to have a beer with.

I’ve said very recently I have LeBron as my GOAT, mostly on the basis of his career in Cleveland (first stint) and Miami, and given how long he’s been a top 5 player. Doesn’t mean I have to think he’s better post-peak than peak Curry, who I have as a borderline top five player all-time.

What lead you to pushing up Lebron as your GOAT? I think you had Bill Russell #1 for a time if I am correct?

[Colbinii]

I really miss the old fpliii who was fun, logical, and someone I wanted to have a beer with.

I’ve said very recently I have LeBron as my GOAT, mostly on the basis of his career in Cleveland (first stint) and Miami, and given how long he’s been a top 5 player. Doesn’t mean I have to think he’s better post-peak than peak Curry, who I have as a borderline top five player all-time.

What lead you to pushing up Lebron as your GOAT? I think you had Bill Russell #1 for a time if I am correct?

He finally watched one of his games

[cpower]

I would go Bron, because that 16-18 peak in particular. I think that is a level that Curry never reached in terms of PS play. Also, Curry virtually not having a 2020 season hurts a bit, but I do think he makes up ground with a 5-4 year advantage of being better Lebron in my estimation:

15-Steph
16-Lebron
17-Lebron
18-Lebron
19-Steph
20-Lebron
21-Steph
22-Steph
23-Steph

From 15-22 in the PS (6 PS), Lebron's impact metrics look like the following:

Backpicks BPM-8.3

PS AuPM/G-5.8

BPM-10.4


For reference,

Steph in half-time that time (3-year time span) during this span, has 3-year peaks of the following:

Backpicks BPM-6.9

PS AuPM/G-5.2

BPM-8.5

Lebron over that sample, outperformed Curry's best 3-year stretches on a per-possession basis. I think that is notable, and shows how Lebron was able to sustain a higher level of play over a longer period.

It's hard to get numbers for the exact time period in play (15-23), but I think that gives you a decent starting point for where the belief of Lebron>Steph would come from.

Some other additional numbers:

2015-2020 PS PIPM

Lebron-7.37 (#1 over this span)

Steph-3.95 (#8 over this span)


14-18 RAPM

Lebron-5.18 (#2 over this span)

Steph-3.62 (#5 over this span)


15-19 RAPM

Lebron-4.96 (#2 over this span)

Steph-3.84 (#7 over this span)

Overall, Lebron lead offenses peaked higher as well during this period, and with his defense being generally being elite, I will side with him.

If you look at shorter peak PS stretches such as single year or 3-year PS stretches, I think once again, Lebron comes out looking stronger. According Backpicks, the 2015-17 Cavs have the 3rd best unique offensive PS stretch for relative offensive rating, and keep in mind Lebron did not have a healthy Kyrie or KLove for much of the 2015 PS. This once surpasses the Warriors offensive performance.

If you don't like using relative offensive rating to judge playoff offense, there is another method called common offensive rating.
Common offensive rating is comparing a team’s postseason play to other teams against that same given opponent (for that particular PS). The rORTG is also listed on the side too for those who, where a team’s playoff offensive rating is compared to it’s opponent’s regular season defensive ratings. The Cavs have the best common offensive rating of the time period.

The best 3-year offenses and defense (minimum of 20 games played across three postseason trips), we see the following unique team peaks in playoff offense per common offensive rating (cORTG) via Backpicks since 1984 (but only other potential contenders would be if you go back to Mikan days).

Team Year cORTG rORTG
CLE 2015-17 13.0 9.5


MIA 2012-14 9.7 8.7

LAL 1987-89 9.4 9


CHI 1991-93 8.8 8.4

CHI 1994-96 8.3 6.9

Lebron's offenses come out looking better under this approach as well. The 2016 Cavs (+15.3 cORTG) and 2017 Cavs (+14.6) have the two highest single-season offensive marks using this approach. Under the 3-year guise, the Cavs would be at least #1 going back to 1984.

some of your numbers are definitely not right, for example, the RAPM
https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/rapm-data/

from 15-19
Curry: 5.7734
Lebron:3.5294

[LukaTheGOAT]

I would go Bron, because that 16-18 peak in particular. I think that is a level that Curry never reached in terms of PS play. Also, Curry virtually not having a 2020 season hurts a bit, but I do think he makes up ground with a 5-4 year advantage of being better Lebron in my estimation:

15-Steph
16-Lebron
17-Lebron
18-Lebron
19-Steph
20-Lebron
21-Steph
22-Steph
23-Steph

From 15-22 in the PS (6 PS), Lebron's impact metrics look like the following:

Backpicks BPM-8.3

PS AuPM/G-5.8

BPM-10.4


For reference,

Steph in half-time that time (3-year time span) during this span, has 3-year peaks of the following:

Backpicks BPM-6.9

PS AuPM/G-5.2

BPM-8.5

Lebron over that sample, outperformed Curry's best 3-year stretches on a per-possession basis. I think that is notable, and shows how Lebron was able to sustain a higher level of play over a longer period.

It's hard to get numbers for the exact time period in play (15-23), but I think that gives you a decent starting point for where the belief of Lebron>Steph would come from.

Some other additional numbers:

2015-2020 PS PIPM

Lebron-7.37 (#1 over this span)

Steph-3.95 (#8 over this span)


14-18 RAPM

Lebron-5.18 (#2 over this span)

Steph-3.62 (#5 over this span)


15-19 RAPM

Lebron-4.96 (#2 over this span)

Steph-3.84 (#7 over this span)

Overall, Lebron lead offenses peaked higher as well during this period, and with his defense being generally being elite, I will side with him.

If you look at shorter peak PS stretches such as single year or 3-year PS stretches, I think once again, Lebron comes out looking stronger. According Backpicks, the 2015-17 Cavs have the 3rd best unique offensive PS stretch for relative offensive rating, and keep in mind Lebron did not have a healthy Kyrie or KLove for much of the 2015 PS. This once surpasses the Warriors offensive performance.

If you don't like using relative offensive rating to judge playoff offense, there is another method called common offensive rating.
Common offensive rating is comparing a team’s postseason play to other teams against that same given opponent (for that particular PS). The rORTG is also listed on the side too for those who, where a team’s playoff offensive rating is compared to it’s opponent’s regular season defensive ratings. The Cavs have the best common offensive rating of the time period.

The best 3-year offenses and defense (minimum of 20 games played across three postseason trips), we see the following unique team peaks in playoff offense per common offensive rating (cORTG) via Backpicks since 1984 (but only other potential contenders would be if you go back to Mikan days).

Team Year cORTG rORTG
CLE 2015-17 13.0 9.5


MIA 2012-14 9.7 8.7

LAL 1987-89 9.4 9


CHI 1991-93 8.8 8.4

CHI 1994-96 8.3 6.9

Lebron's offenses come out looking better under this approach as well. The 2016 Cavs (+15.3 cORTG) and 2017 Cavs (+14.6) have the two highest single-season offensive marks using this approach. Under the 3-year guise, the Cavs would be at least #1 going back to 1984.

some of your numbers are definitely not right, for example, the RAPM
https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/rapm-data/

from 15-19
Curry: 5.7734
Lebron:3.5294

Nope, that is a different RAPM source, and also doesn't have multi-year RAPM.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQdG8Zv84zqKEzETDjd8KPsClcw9bPETX9v_x_KEAxjv9NrFaWikOoiSaciy1jbMiygg2D-V8DUQn0O/pubhtml?gid=721454147&single=true

[kayess]

2015: Curry
2016: Curry
2017: Curry
2018: Curry
2019: Curry
2020: LeBron
2021: Curry
2022: Curry
2023: Curry

I really miss the old fpliii who was fun, logical, and someone I wanted to have a beer with.

That's fpliii?? What happened or are you joking

[TheGOATRises007]

I would go Bron, because that 16-18 peak in particular. I think that is a level that Curry never reached in terms of PS play. Also, Curry virtually not having a 2020 season hurts a bit, but I do think he makes up ground with a 5-4 year advantage of being better Lebron in my estimation:

15-Steph
16-Lebron
17-Lebron
18-Lebron
19-Steph
20-Lebron
21-Steph
22-Steph
23-Steph

From 15-22 in the PS (6 PS), Lebron's impact metrics look like the following:

Backpicks BPM-8.3

PS AuPM/G-5.8

BPM-10.4


For reference,

Steph in half-time that time (3-year time span) during this span, has 3-year peaks of the following:

Backpicks BPM-6.9

PS AuPM/G-5.2

BPM-8.5

Lebron over that sample, outperformed Curry's best 3-year stretches on a per-possession basis. I think that is notable, and shows how Lebron was able to sustain a higher level of play over a longer period.

It's hard to get numbers for the exact time period in play (15-23), but I think that gives you a decent starting point for where the belief of Lebron>Steph would come from.

Some other additional numbers:

2015-2020 PS PIPM

Lebron-7.37 (#1 over this span)

Steph-3.95 (#8 over this span)


14-18 RAPM

Lebron-5.18 (#2 over this span)

Steph-3.62 (#5 over this span)


15-19 RAPM

Lebron-4.96 (#2 over this span)

Steph-3.84 (#7 over this span)

Overall, Lebron lead offenses peaked higher as well during this period, and with his defense being generally being elite, I will side with him.

If you look at shorter peak PS stretches such as single year or 3-year PS stretches, I think once again, Lebron comes out looking stronger. According Backpicks, the 2015-17 Cavs have the 3rd best unique offensive PS stretch for relative offensive rating, and keep in mind Lebron did not have a healthy Kyrie or KLove for much of the 2015 PS. This once surpasses the Warriors offensive performance.

If you don't like using relative offensive rating to judge playoff offense, there is another method called common offensive rating.
Common offensive rating is comparing a team’s postseason play to other teams against that same given opponent (for that particular PS). The rORTG is also listed on the side too for those who, where a team’s playoff offensive rating is compared to it’s opponent’s regular season defensive ratings. The Cavs have the best common offensive rating of the time period.

The best 3-year offenses and defense (minimum of 20 games played across three postseason trips), we see the following unique team peaks in playoff offense per common offensive rating (cORTG) via Backpicks since 1984 (but only other potential contenders would be if you go back to Mikan days).

Team Year cORTG rORTG
CLE 2015-17 13.0 9.5


MIA 2012-14 9.7 8.7

LAL 1987-89 9.4 9


CHI 1991-93 8.8 8.4

CHI 1994-96 8.3 6.9

Lebron's offenses come out looking better under this approach as well. The 2016 Cavs (+15.3 cORTG) and 2017 Cavs (+14.6) have the two highest single-season offensive marks using this approach. Under the 3-year guise, the Cavs would be at least #1 going back to 1984.

some of your numbers are definitely not right, for example, the RAPM
https://basketball-analytics.gitlab.io/rapm-data/

from 15-19
Curry: 5.7734
Lebron:3.5294

Nope, that is a different RAPM source, and also doesn't have multi-year RAPM.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQdG8Zv84zqKEzETDjd8KPsClcw9bPETX9v_x_KEAxjv9NrFaWikOoiSaciy1jbMiygg2D-V8DUQn0O/pubhtml?gid=721454147&single=true

Is this multi-year RAPM calculated in a similar way as ESPN's RPM(just with the added adjustment of teammates)?

[kayess]

It's surprising how close LeBron is here. I think he was better but I'd take Curry's career obviously (rings aside)

'15 Curry was clearly better
'16 LeBron had the higher series/single game peak; Curry had one of the ATG seasons, so it's kinda close
'17-'18 Curry's basically as good as '16, slightly better, but doesn't show cause of Durant; LeBron has asome all-time playoff performances
'19 duh
'20 duh
'21-'22 Curry clearly but it's mega injury marred
'23 uninjured LeBron somehow better than Curry and injured LeBron outplays him in critical moments in the playoffs...

Yeah it's tough. I think LeBron's the better player and can express that "betterness" maybe 20% of the time vs. Curry who can sustain ~95% of that level longer.

Curry probably overall (by a hair)
LeBron better player