RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #16 (George Mikan)

[lessthanjake]

If your goal is to win championships, Dirk got significantly further and closer as the #1 option compared to Robinson as the #1 option.

Yeah, sure, and I do value that, since team success matters to me on its own. But, mitigating that a good deal, I do also think Dirk had clearly better teams, while Robinson was dragging teams that were awful to 50-60 win records.

But we already agreed the +/- and On/Off says the players were similar

So now we are talking in circles.

Can you provide evidence--statistical evidence-- which showed Dirk having clearly better teams while Robinson was dragging teams that were awful to 50-60 wins.

But, let's also not forget, this isn't just team success--Dirk is, without a doubt, a significantly better scorer and offensive player--regardless of teammates.

We didn’t agree the on-off was similar at all. The on-off we have from David Robinson in his pre-injury years (the years where I regard him as having been substantially superior to Dirk) are: full years of +19.9, +19.8, and +16.6, and a partial year at +13.8. Meanwhile, we know prime Dirk averaged just below +12. These are not similar.

And I’d say the *statistical* evidence that Robinson’s pre-Duncan teams were worse includes that in the on-off data we have, Robinson’s teams’ net ratings with him off the court were: -10.5, -9.1, -5.6, and a partial year at -8.64. Meanwhile, in his prime, Dirk’s team averaged about -3.6 (exact number would depend on exactly what years you include). And the non-statistical evidence includes looking at the rosters.

And yes, Dirk is a better offensive player, but Robinson is also a substantially better defensive player. I think the difference with Robinson’s defense is definitely bigger (though that’s mitigated by individual defense mattering a bit less than individual offense IMO).

[OldSchoolNoBull]

Robinson vs. Malone in three playoff series from 1994-98:

Robinson:
19.3-10.5-2.3-1.1-2.9 , 42.8% FG, 49.4% TS

Malone:
26.0-10.3-3.6-1.3-0.9 , 44.8% FG, 50.1% TS

The Net Rating from each series:
1994 - 110.6-101.1 in Utah's favor
1996 - 114.1-100.2 in Utah's favor
1998 - 101.8-101.5 in Utah's favor

Not that this is a Malone's career over Robinson's sort of "gotcha", but how the offensive rating(s) of San Antonio dropped around 9 or 10 points in the first two years and how the defensive rating(s) of San Antonio dropped around 6 and 9 points here does raise an eyebrows for me as the information stands. Some +/- and on-off (even with a small sample) could be of use to explain if San Antonio fell apart sans Robinson (they sure did without him, as a whole) but I think some of the questions posted by drza in an earlier post here ought to garner a fair share of consideration before a fair share looks to enshrine him as the 16th greatest career in league history.

This is a pretty small sample size though. D-Rob grades out higher in most impact metrics than Malone - here is some data extracted from my longer post(on page 1) about Malone above:


Career average RAPM(using J.E. RS+PS 1997-2019 and Squared2020)
DRob - 4.52(over 9 seasons)
Malone - 1.98(over 11 seasons)

Career Average Regular Season RAPTOR
DRob- 6.92
Malone - 3.56

Career Average Playoff RAPTOR
DRob - 5.52
Malone - 1.53

Playoff TS(Relative to RS league average over the duration of career)
DRob - +1.6
Malone - -0.5

Career Average RS D-RAPTOR
DRob - 4.95
Malone - 0.92

Career Average PO D-RAPTOR
DRob - 5.08
Malone - 0.96

Career On/Off(1997 onwards)
DRob - +6.1(RS)/+18.9(PO, 70 games)
Malone - +10.3(RS)/+13.6(PO, 96 games)

Of all of that, RS on/off is the only one where Malone comes out on top.

DRob was a more efficient scorer in both RS and PS, and was a dramatically better defender.

W/R/T Dirk, I think Dirk does have an edge over DRob as a scorer, but I think DRob's advantage as a defender more than makes up for it.

[OldSchoolNoBull]

As a more general observation - I am a little annoyed at the tendency of some here to not want to give DRob any credit for anything that happened after Duncan was drafted. No way the Spurs win the 1999 title without DRob's stellar play.

[Owly]

This spot is really a Dirk vs Robinson, heavy weight duel. While many comparisons favor one or the other [David Robinson's Box-Score composites place him firmly in the Top 10, for example], I would instead like to focus more on Playoff Scoring Resiliency.

For Playoff Scoring Resiliency, The Great Ty 4191 along with 70sFan have compiled most of this information.

David Robinson (1990-98):

RS: 37.4 mpg, 11.6 rpg,3.0 apg, 2.9 tov, 25.1 ppg on 52.4% FG, 74.5% FT and 59.1% TS (+5.61% rTS)
Against Bad Defenses (12.90% of playoffs games): 38.8 mpg, 12.7 rpg, 2.5 apg, 3.1 tov, 27.9 ppg on 60.6% FG, 85.1% FT and 67.8% TS (13.96% rTS)
Against Average Defenses (56.54% of playoffs games): 39.4 mpg, 11.6 rpg, 2.8 apg, 3.1 tov, 23.6 ppg on 46.4% FG, 71.8% FT, 53.8% TS (-0.04% rTS)
Against Good Defenses (30.65% of playoffs games): 39.4 mpg, 12.8 rpg, 3.3 apg, 2.4 tov, 21.0 ppg on 45.9% FG, 64.8% FT and 51.7% TS (-1.54% rTS)
Against Elite Defenses (0.00% of playoffs games): --
Against All-Time Great Defenses (0.00% of playoffs games): --

The first thing that comes to mind is Robinson crushed bad defense and struggled against Average and Good Defense. The 2nd thing is he never, ever, faced Elite or ATG defenses. We can assume from this data that he would have struggled mightily, considering his struggled against Average-to-Good defenses.

Dirk Nowitzki (2001-11):

RS: 37.4 mpg, 8.8 rpg, 2.8 apg, 2.0 tov, 24.3 ppg on 47.9% FG, 38.5% 3FG, 88.2% FT and 58.6% TS (+5.43% rTS)
Against Bad Defenses (4.03% of playoffs games): 42.4 mpg, 11.8 rpg, 1.4 apg, 1.2 tov, 26.6 ppg on 45.0% FG, 46.7% 3FG, 85.7% FT and 56.1% TS (+4.53% rTS)
Against Average Defenses (48.39% of playoffs games): 41.7 mpg, 10.4 rpg, 2.7 apg, 2.5 tov, 27.4 ppg on 46.7% FG, 39.1% 3FG, 88.4% FT, 59.4% TS (+6.08% rTS)
Against Good Defenses (19.35% of playoffs games): 40.6 mpg, 9.8 rpg, 2.6 apg, 2.5 tov, 25.8 ppg on 46.8% FG, 45.9% 3FG 94.5% FT and 57.8% TS (+4.38% rTS)
Against Elite Defenses (28.23% of playoffs games): 41.1 mpg, 10.6 rpg, 2.6 apg, 2.0 tov, 23.4 ppg on 45.5% FG, 29.3% 3FG, 88.4% FT and 57.4% TS (+4.41% rTS)
Against All-Time Great Defenses (0.00% of playoffs games): --

What a resilient chart. It literally didn't matter what type of defenses Dirk faced--he fared around +4 rTS% against all defenses--Bad, Average or Elite. To tie this in, I would like to show Dirk's Regular Season, On-Court Ortg over this span.

https://ibb.co/1vDV2zw

What you can see is Dirk's Regression line is perfectly linear--regardless of the defense faced, teammates, coaches, ect. This very well could be the most resilient scorer in NBA history. This has resulted in Great Offenses countless times over an 11-year sample.

I just can't justify a player like Robinson, playing in the 1990s and being less resilient than guys like KG, Hakeem and Ewing, to be ahead of Dirk.

1. Dirk Nowitzki
Nominate: Chris Paul

It doesn't completely flip the script or anything, I'm not suggesting it does. I'm not arguing with the choice either.

But one of the first things that pops to me ... Robinson's FT% trends worse towards better defenses in close to perfect steps. Should we not offer a neutralized version if we are trying to suggest the impact of defenses?

I have also questioned the the accuracy of team level defense (within buckets) as a proxy for individual defensive difficulty. '95 Rockets were a -0.9 rDrtg in the RS. I assume they are an "average" defense. But he faced Olajuwon as his matchup and, based on what I've read more aggressive help (and more coordinated, actually co-operating with one another and their coach opponents) than would be vice-versa for Olajuwon. The '95 Nuggets matchup (Mutombo) would I think likewise be an "average" difficulty opponent (-0.1 rDrtg).

Regarding "less resilient than Ewing" ... that certainly isn't a given. It can depend on definitions, but regardless "resilience" is a measure that can penalize or obscure absolute goodness. Through 2001 Robinson has playoff years that fall below Ewing's career averages:
PER: 0 times
WS/48: 1 time
BPM: 0 times.
Throw in the final two years and 2002 Robinson adds 1 across the board, 2003 adds only to PER (for 2, 2, 1).
A crude tool I'll grant. Career averages tend to penalize longevity. But then Ewing missed the playoffs in his weaker early years and whilst one could play with thresholds I would say played fewer total minutes in his mid 30s on out of a larger total playoff minute career together making an smaller percentage of his playoff career in those later years.
Flipside would Ewing tops Robinson's career averages:
PER: 1 time.
WS/48: 0 times.
BPM: 0 times.
And in a late career sample Robinson appeared, I think, to suggest better than box impact in the playoffs, at least for that window.
There are great players in the pool contending for the vote (and indeed great players outside it - and indeed Ewing is one but ...) I don't think he needs to be in/adds to the conversation here.

[Colbinii]

As a more general observation - I am a little annoyed at the tendency of some here to not want to give DRob any credit for anything that happened after Duncan was drafted. No way the Spurs win the 1999 title without DRob's stellar play.

Same with Dirk 2012-2016

And most people lump 1998 in with D-Rob's prime, which is after Duncan was drafted

[rk2023]

As a more general observation - I am a little annoyed at the tendency of some here to not want to give DRob any credit for anything that happened after Duncan was drafted. No way the Spurs win the 1999 title without DRob's stellar play.

From my posts, it does seem like i'm keying in on 1990-96. I see a lot of the arguments being focused on such, so it's just been my point of emphasis as a responder. I do see the 98-00 years being solid in his favor and think I'm higher on them than those I've spoken with on the subject before. Certainly not directing at you here, but I just want to put this out to clarify - thanks.

[rk2023]

Robinson vs. Malone in three playoff series from 1994-98:

Robinson:
19.3-10.5-2.3-1.1-2.9 , 42.8% FG, 49.4% TS

Malone:
26.0-10.3-3.6-1.3-0.9 , 44.8% FG, 50.1% TS

The Net Rating from each series:
1994 - 110.6-101.1 in Utah's favor
1996 - 114.1-100.2 in Utah's favor
1998 - 101.8-101.5 in Utah's favor

Not that this is a Malone's career over Robinson's sort of "gotcha", but how the offensive rating(s) of San Antonio dropped around 9 or 10 points in the first two years and how the defensive rating(s) of San Antonio dropped around 6 and 9 points here does raise an eyebrows for me as the information stands. Some +/- and on-off (even with a small sample) could be of use to explain if San Antonio fell apart sans Robinson (they sure did without him, as a whole) but I think some of the questions posted by drza in an earlier post here ought to garner a fair share of consideration before a fair share looks to enshrine him as the 16th greatest career in league history.

This is a pretty small sample size though. D-Rob grades out higher in most impact metrics than Malone - here is some data extracted from my longer post(on page 1) about Malone above:


Career average RAPM(using J.E. RS+PS 1997-2019 and Squared2020)
DRob - 4.52(over 9 seasons)
Malone - 1.98(over 11 seasons)

Career Average Regular Season RAPTOR
DRob- 6.92
Malone - 3.56

Career Average Playoff RAPTOR
DRob - 5.52
Malone - 1.53

Playoff TS(Relative to RS league average over the duration of career)
DRob - +1.6
Malone - -0.5

Career Average RS D-RAPTOR
DRob - 4.95
Malone - 0.92

Career Average PO D-RAPTOR
DRob - 5.08
Malone - 0.96

Career On/Off(1997 onwards)
DRob - +6.1(RS)/+18.9(PO, 70 games)
Malone - +10.3(RS)/+13.6(PO, 96 games)

Of all of that, RS on/off is the only one where Malone comes out on top.

DRob was a more efficient scorer in both RS and PS, and was a dramatically better defender.

W/R/T Dirk, I think Dirk does have an edge over DRob as a scorer, but I think DRob's advantage as a defender more than makes up for it.

Thanks for sharing. As usual, I certainly respect your intel. Am curious where you are getting the RAPTOr data for. I've only seen it extend backwards to 2013-14

[Owly]

Yeah, sure, and I do value that, since team success matters to me on its own. But, mitigating that a good deal, I do also think Dirk had clearly better teams, while Robinson was dragging teams that were awful to 50-60 win records.

But we already agreed the +/- and On/Off says the players were similar

So now we are talking in circles.

Can you provide evidence--statistical evidence-- which showed Dirk having clearly better teams while Robinson was dragging teams that were awful to 50-60 wins.

But, let's also not forget, this isn't just team success--Dirk is, without a doubt, a significantly better scorer and offensive player--regardless of teammates.

We didn’t agree the on-off was similar at all. The on-off we have from David Robinson in his pre-injury years (the years where I regard him as having been substantially superior to Dirk) are: full years of +19.9, +19.8, and +16.6, and a partial year at +13.8. Meanwhile, we know prime Dirk averaged just below +12. These are not similar.

And I’d say the *statistical* evidence that Robinson’s pre-Duncan teams were worse includes that in the on-off data we have, Robinson’s teams’ net ratings with him off the court were: -10.5, -9.1, -5.6, and a partial year at -8.64. Meanwhile, in his prime, Dirk’s team averaged about -3.6 (exact number would depend on exactly what years you include). And the non-statistical evidence includes looking at the rosters.

And yes, Dirk is a better offensive player, but Robinson is also a substantially better defensive player. I think the difference with Robinson’s defense is definitely bigger (though that’s mitigated by individual defense mattering a bit less than individual offense IMO).

Whilst it is a very crude tool, since the similarity of their on-off has been posited

playoff on-off
Robinson (incomplete): +18.9
Nowitzki: +2.0
Robinson's is very incomplete (covering circa half his playoff minutes and a smaller chunk of his career production). It does miss his worst box-dropoff years, though those are also years posting huge RS impact.
Given the samples I won't use the off to imply teammate strength.

[Owly]

Robinson vs. Malone in three playoff series from 1994-98:

Robinson:
19.3-10.5-2.3-1.1-2.9 , 42.8% FG, 49.4% TS

Malone:
26.0-10.3-3.6-1.3-0.9 , 44.8% FG, 50.1% TS

The Net Rating from each series:
1994 - 110.6-101.1 in Utah's favor
1996 - 114.1-100.2 in Utah's favor
1998 - 101.8-101.5 in Utah's favor

Not that this is a Malone's career over Robinson's sort of "gotcha", but how the offensive rating(s) of San Antonio dropped around 9 or 10 points in the first two years and how the defensive rating(s) of San Antonio dropped around 6 and 9 points here does raise an eyebrows for me as the information stands. Some +/- and on-off (even with a small sample) could be of use to explain if San Antonio fell apart sans Robinson (they sure did without him, as a whole) but I think some of the questions posted by drza in an earlier post here ought to garner a fair share of consideration before a fair share looks to enshrine him as the 16th greatest career in league history.

This is a pretty small sample size though. D-Rob grades out higher in most impact metrics than Malone - here is some data extracted from my longer post(on page 1) about Malone above:


Career average RAPM(using J.E. RS+PS 1997-2019 and Squared2020)
DRob - 4.52(over 9 seasons)
Malone - 1.98(over 11 seasons)

Career Average Regular Season RAPTOR
DRob- 6.92
Malone - 3.56

Career Average Playoff RAPTOR
DRob - 5.52
Malone - 1.53

Playoff TS(Relative to RS league average over the duration of career)
DRob - +1.6
Malone - -0.5

Career Average RS D-RAPTOR
DRob - 4.95
Malone - 0.92

Career Average PO D-RAPTOR
DRob - 5.08
Malone - 0.96

Career On/Off(1997 onwards)
DRob - +6.1(RS)/+18.9(PO, 70 games)
Malone - +10.3(RS)/+13.6(PO, 96 games)

Of all of that, RS on/off is the only one where Malone comes out on top.

DRob was a more efficient scorer in both RS and PS, and was a dramatically better defender.

W/R/T Dirk, I think Dirk does have an edge over DRob as a scorer, but I think DRob's advantage as a defender more than makes up for it.

Thanks for sharing. As usual, I certainly respect your intel. Am curious where you are getting the RAPTOr data for. I've only seen it extend backwards to 2013-14

Can't be certain I don't really follow it closely. Would assume it's different "flavors". Main variant being the player tracking era version fitting with 13-14 as the start date and actually fitting the PT in it's name. If you've something with an actual "career" number for Malone and Robinson [and it means career] then you've got a box approximation of RAPTOR.

Looking at it this seems accurate (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/introducing-raptor-our-new-metric-for-the-modern-nba/)

The full-fledged version of RAPTOR is available for the 2013-14 season onward, as that’s when the NBA’s player-tracking data came on line. We also have a historical version of RAPTOR called Approximate RAPTOR dating back to 1976-1977, the first season after the ABA-NBA merger, but that uses a far more limited range of data.

[One_and_Done]

I'm curious who will be 2nd place to D.Rob between Malone & Dirk, since that'll be the modernist rallying point next round once D.Rob gets in.

[Samurai]

Vote for #16: George Mikan
The most dominant player of the remaining eligible players. Granted there are serious questions about his era; otherwise I believe he would have already been voted in. While we don't have full stats for the NBL, Mikan was named First Team All-NBL in both 47 and 48; in 48 he led the league in points, FG's and FT's. Thus even without stats it would seem that he was more than likely as dominant then as he was in the BAA and pre-30 NBA years. Per the guidelines for this project, performance in the NBL and BAA can be considered as well as the ABA and NBA, thus I am giving him credit for his pre-NBA years as well.

While he was clearly the dominant offensive star and rebounder during his prime, I am not convinced he was an elite defender. But if there had been such a designation of DPOY back then, I am not sure there would be any better candidates for such an award then either. Even if there were better DPOY candidates (I certainly am no expert on that era), it would seem that Mikan would likely have been a First Team All-Defensive Team recipient (and at worst a Second Team member) if such awards had been created.

Alternate: Karl Malone
Outstanding longevity with consistently high performance - 16 seasons finishing in the top 20 in points/game, 17 seasons in the top 20 for rebounds/game, 16 seasons top 20 in PER and 14 seasons top 20 in WS/per 48 minutes. Also named First Team All Defensive Team 3 times and Second Team once.

Nominate: Julius Erving
Erving's 76 season could be the single most dominant peak season of any of the nominees (depending on how one views the ABA and how much one penalizes Mikan's era).

Edit: Secondary nomination - Chris Paul
Now that Oscar is in, I keep asking myself why not CP3? In terms of style of play as a quarterback among PG's that I have seen, CP3 reminds me the most of Oscar's style. Note that style of playmaking does not mean they are the same person: Oscar is obviously bigger/stronger, CP3 the better defender and Oscar the better rebounder. But their style as being elite playmakers makes me uncomfortable to not nominate CP3 now that Oscar is in. They are also both elite mid-range shooters, among the best of their respective eras.

[iggymcfrack]

Vote: David Robinson
Better defense than KG, better on/off numbers than LeBron, better 3 year box score peak than Curry, better career playoff record than Dirk and Malone, pretty much did it all. Don’t see any argument for him not going at least this high.

Alternate: Dirk Nowitzki
Best single year peak remaining with very good longevity.

Nominate: Nikola Jokic
Top 3 all-time peak, ranks top 2 all-time in PER, playoff PER, BPM, and playoff BPM while still playing more minutes than Mikan.

Alternate nomination: Chris Paul
Noticed he’s getting some traction and I’d have him #13 overall one spot behind Giannis. Also, whereas Jokic and Giannis are remarkably similar candidates, CP3 has a very different resume with his 18 seasons and 1214 games of impressive longevity.

[iggymcfrack]

Very early vote count:

D-Rob 4
Dirk 3
Mikan 2
Malone 1
(Goes to 6-3 Robinson with preferences included)

Dr. J 3
CP3 3
Moses 1
Giannis 1
Jokic 1
(Goes to 4-3 Paul with preferences included)

Looks like the nomination contest could be more interesting than expected if Paul continues to get traction.

[iggymcfrack]

If it does come down to CP3 vs. Erving, it might be interesting to do some side-by-side comparisons:

Erving, age 21-25 (ABA years): 26.4 PER, .217 WS/48, 9.2 BPM
Paul, age 21-25 (Hornets years): 25.9 PER, .245 WS/48, 8.3 BPM

Erving, age 21-25 (playoffs): 27.4 PER, .243 WS/48, 9.4 BPM
Paul, age 21-25 (playoffs): 27.1 PER, .207 WS/48, 9.0 BPM

Erving, age 26-36 (NBA years): 22.0 PER, .178 WS/48, 5.2 BPM
Paul, age 26-36 (post-Hornets): 24.3 PER, .244 WS/48, 7.0 BPM

Erving, age 26-36 (playoffs): 20.0 PER, .149 WS/48, 5.2 BPM
Paul, age 26-36 (playoffs): 22.8 PER, .190 WS/48, 6.4 BPM

So as we can see, in the ABA years, Dr. J has a slight edge statistically although not as large as the one CP3 would enjoy during the years Erving was in the NBA and facing tougher competition. Furthermore, Paul as an elite passer/playmaker and defender is exactly the kind of player we’d expect to outperform his box stats and the impact data we have tells us exactly this as Paul has the 4th best impact profile of the last 27 years. Meanwhile, Dr. J, as a pure scorer is exactly the kind of player you’d expect box stats to overrate and again, this is what we see looking at the data. For the years that we have on/off data for the Sixers, Dr. J often isn’t even one of the top players on his own team and has very disappointing numbers. So box stats are the only area where they’re really even close and even there Paul wins. Accounting for era and non-box impact, I don’t really think it’s that close.

[One_and_Done]

ABA was just as tough as the NBA by 1974-76.

[OldSchoolNoBull]

Vote: George Mikan

Same as always - most era-dominant player left.

Secondary Vote: David Robinson

Comparable in offensive impact to Dirk and Malone while being a significantly more impactful defender than Dirk and a dramatically more impactful defender than Malone. Perhaps the best two-way player left on the board, Mikan aside.

Nomination: Julius Erving

Maybe the best resume left, and one of highest peaks left(meaning his ABA peak).

Secondary Nomination: Charles Barkley

I'll keep pushing him until somebody joins me.

[rk2023]

Vote: George Mikan

Same as always - most era-dominant player left.

Secondary Vote: David Robinson

Comparable in offensive impact to Dirk and Malone while being a significantly more impactful defender than Dirk and a dramatically more impactful defender than Malone. Perhaps the best two-way player left on the board, Mikan aside.

Nomination: Julius Erving

Maybe the best resume left, and one of highest peaks left(meaning his ABA peak).

Secondary Nomination: Charles Barkley

I'll keep pushing him until somebody joins me.

Barkley could be next up on my nomination radar - looking through past stuff of him, Giannis, Wade, Nash atm

[iggymcfrack]

ABA was just as tough as the NBA by 1974-76.

Even if this is true, it’s still not as tough as the post-merger league with all the top players playing together at the same time, and that’s where Erving struggled relatively. If he struggled adjusting to the post-merger league, I think it’s fair to expect he’d struggle even more if he had to play against the modern talent Chris Paul faced after the international expansion.

[One_and_Done]

ABA was just as tough as the NBA by 1974-76.

Even if this is true, it’s still not as tough as the post-merger league with all the top players playing together at the same time, and that’s where Erving struggled relatively. If he struggled adjusting to the post-merger league, I think it’s fair to expect he’d struggle even more if he had to play against the modern talent Chris Paul faced after the international expansion.

Yeh this is basically wrong. Dr J is a guy who circumstances conspired against to creare a superficially poor narrative.

If the NBA was tougher post merger then we wouldn't have seen the Spurs and Nuggets come into the NBA and basically not miss a beat. What actually happened was Dr J joined a 76er team who had too many scorers (McGinnis & World B. Free expected to get 25-30 ppg or they'd pout & D.Collins was a 20ppg scorer too) and he was asked to score less for the good of the team. Even though they played your turn my turn it almost worked. The 76ers made the finals in 77 and lost due to Walton, and Then Erving got hurt just as they realised they needed a normal team and was never quite as good as he had once been. He was still an MVP candidate type player though.

[tsherkin]

ABA was just as tough as the NBA by 1974-76.

Even if this is true, it’s still not as tough as the post-merger league with all the top players playing together at the same time, and that’s where Erving struggled relatively. If he struggled adjusting to the post-merger league, I think it’s fair to expect he’d struggle even more if he had to play against the modern talent Chris Paul faced after the international expansion.

Yeh this is basically wrong. Dr J is a guy who circumstances conspired against to creare a superficially poor narrative.

If the NBA was tougher post merger then we wouldn't have seen the Spurs and Pacers come into the NBA and basically not miss a beat. What actually happened was Dr J joined a 76er team who had too many scorers (McGinnis & World B. Free expected to get 25-30 ppg or they'd pout & D.Collins was a 20ppg scorer too) and he was asked to score less for the good of the team. Even though they played your turn my turn it almost worked. The 76ers made the finals in 77 and lost due to Walton, and Then Erving got hurt just as they realised they needed a normal team and was never quite as good as he had once been. He was still an MVP candidate type player though.

Yeah, I mean, his PTS100 dropped for 3 years as he hit the NBA, but then from 80-85, he was back at 32.0 PTS100 on 51.9% FG (was at 32.4 in the ABA, on 50.8% FG). And again, to reinforce One_and_Done's point, the 77-79 Sixers had a bunch of other guys scoring at a decent clip. And wouldn't you know it, they won 50 games (lost to the 77 Blazers in the Finals), 55 games (lost to the eventual-champ Bullets in the 78 Finals) and 47 games (lost to the Spurs in 7 in the conference finals).

That's a pretty great first three years in the league for Erving, all told. All-NBA 2nd in 77, 1st in 78. 5th and 10th in the MVP vote in 77 and 78. Got crapped on in 79 despite scoring more than he had in either previous season.

He clearly hit the league and had a good amount of success immediately.