Why did Lebron team defenses collapse so often in the playoffs?

[Colbinii]

I only included the 2009-2018 stretch and only later rounds (ECF + Finals) except for 2010 where he lost in Round 2.

You know you have an agenda when you can't even be consistent with your own arbitrary thresholds and have to sneak in a second round +1.1 rDRtg as a defensive "collapse".

Anyways, looking at the list, only the 09 ECF and the 14/17/18 Finals stand out as particularly bad defensive team performances and the obvious theme there is hot opponent 3pt shooting. The +6.1 rDRtg in the 14 ECF looks horrible on paper but considering ORtg/DRtg sometimes get wonky for outlier paces (as noted in this thread of mine) and the fact the Heat had a +18.7 rORtg in that same series, it's a nothingburger.

And OP's proposed explanations don't even make sense:
a) If LeBron is so bad that he is only a "pseudo" and not the real defensive anchor of his teams, why is he the one blamed for the team's defensive shortcomings rather than the actual anchor whoever that is?
b), c) A team build being biased towards offense does not reflect poorly on LeBron's individual defense at all. That's a question of roster construction and considering his teams' overall success, it's not necessarily a bad trade off. But it's kind of obvious OP only brought this point up to downplay how good the rORtg of LeBron-led teams are.

With all due respect, I don't have an agenda and I'm kind of disappointed you're accusing me of such. Nor am I cherrypicking. I've posted the rDRtg for 10/17 combined Finals and ECF series during Lebron's prime that his team had a positive rDRtg. And yes any positive rDRtg is quite bad because it means that the defensive performance was worse than that of an average team. It doesn't have to be 5+ or 10+ to be bad although the latter is obviously REALLY bad. The data i posted fits the theme of the thread. Why would I post other series that are irrelevant to the thread at hand. Obviously Lebron's teams weren't bad defensively in every single series.

a) By pseudo, I simply meant that he isn't a traditional defensive anchor meaning a big man paint protector.

b) c) This thread isn't about offense or rORtg. Nor did I say that the defensive underperformances necessarily reflect poorly on Lebron. I simply started a thread so we can all discuss it.

If you don't have an agenda, why didn't you post every series?

I took the time to do so in the Offensive thread.

Here is a theory: The teams LeBron played on had inadequate defensive talent and were held together by LeBron James [and other players at times] but would ultimately fall apart occasionally when teams had ample time to prepare in combination of having the offensive talent to exploit the deficiencies of the defenses. Unfortunately LeBron never had a David Robinson, Draymond Green, Scottie Pippen or even Horace Grant level defender for most of his prime seasons. There is also the variance of 3P shooting, which makes outlier rORtg series far more common with the sheer volume of 3P shots compared to previous eras.

It also could be a good idea to see what other teams in the playoffs did against the teams LeBron faced compared to their Regular Season. Do you really think the 2013 Spurs tried as hard in the regular season as they did in the post-season?

For example, they were +5.6, +1.2 and +8.6 leading up-to the Finals, where they were only +5.6. Seems right in line with the previous 3 series, no?

The 2017 Warriors were +6.3, +10.8 and +18.7 leading up the Finals where they were only +5.7. Considering both series prior to the Finals the Warriors absolutely torched Top 5 Defenses, doesn't this make the Cavaliers defense actually look good?

The 2018 Cavaliers are one of the worst defensive teams to ever make the Finals. Why do we even care how they fared against the Warriors in the Finals? Is it any indication or testament to LeBron's defense?

But hey, the 2012 Thunder, who were only +0.2 in the Finals, yet were +10.3 in the WCF against the Spurs and +10.6 in the WCSF against the Lakers. That looks awfully impressive, no?

[homecourtloss]

I only included the 2009-2018 stretch and only later rounds (ECF + Finals) except for 2010 where he lost in Round 2.

You know you have an agenda when you can't even be consistent with your own arbitrary thresholds and have to sneak in a second round +1.1 rDRtg as a defensive "collapse".

Especially when that “collapse” was actually the Cavs at a -.4 rDRtg with James on court, +6.5 rDRtg with James off court.

Anyways, looking at the list, only the 09 ECF and the 14/17/18 Finals stand out as particularly bad defensive team performances and the obvious theme there is hot opponent 3pt shooting. The +6.1 rDRtg in the 14 ECF looks horrible on paper but considering ORtg/DRtg sometimes get wonky for outlier paces (as noted in this thread of mine) and the fact the Heat had a +18.7 rORtg in that same series, it's a nothingburger.

In 2014 vs. the Pacers: Heat with LeBron on court had a -2.3 rDRtg, +18.4 rDRtg with LeBron off court.

Additionally, LeBron without Wade and Bosh on court had a 93.4 DRtg, a -10.2 rDRtg using NBA.com numbers. A lot of this was also that Mario Chalmers had a poor defensive series (James+Wade+Bosh tougher without Chalmers had a slightly -rDRtg and that Haslem should not be seeing any court time but did and was a horrifically bad 126.2 DRtg in his 79 minutes,

LeBron without Chalmers: 85.5 DRtg, -18.1 rDRtg

LeBron + Old Ray Allen: 96.6 DRtg, -7.0 rDRtg
LeBron + Cole: 83.9 DRtg, -19.7 rDRtg
LeBron + Rashard Lewis: 87.4 DRtg, -16.2 rDRtg
LeBron + Andersen: 87.8 DRtg, -15.8 rDRtg

These were listed under “collapses”

[Djoker]

You know you have an agenda when you can't even be consistent with your own arbitrary thresholds and have to sneak in a second round +1.1 rDRtg as a defensive "collapse".

Anyways, looking at the list, only the 09 ECF and the 14/17/18 Finals stand out as particularly bad defensive team performances and the obvious theme there is hot opponent 3pt shooting. The +6.1 rDRtg in the 14 ECF looks horrible on paper but considering ORtg/DRtg sometimes get wonky for outlier paces (as noted in this thread of mine) and the fact the Heat had a +18.7 rORtg in that same series, it's a nothingburger.

And OP's proposed explanations don't even make sense:
a) If LeBron is so bad that he is only a "pseudo" and not the real defensive anchor of his teams, why is he the one blamed for the team's defensive shortcomings rather than the actual anchor whoever that is?
b), c) A team build being biased towards offense does not reflect poorly on LeBron's individual defense at all. That's a question of roster construction and considering his teams' overall success, it's not necessarily a bad trade off. But it's kind of obvious OP only brought this point up to downplay how good the rORtg of LeBron-led teams are.

With all due respect, I don't have an agenda and I'm kind of disappointed you're accusing me of such. Nor am I cherrypicking. I've posted the rDRtg for 10/17 combined Finals and ECF series during Lebron's prime that his team had a positive rDRtg. And yes any positive rDRtg is quite bad because it means that the defensive performance was worse than that of an average team. It doesn't have to be 5+ or 10+ to be bad although the latter is obviously REALLY bad. The data i posted fits the theme of the thread. Why would I post other series that are irrelevant to the thread at hand. Obviously Lebron's teams weren't bad defensively in every single series.

a) By pseudo, I simply meant that he isn't a traditional defensive anchor meaning a big man paint protector.

b) c) This thread isn't about offense or rORtg. Nor did I say that the defensive underperformances necessarily reflect poorly on Lebron. I simply started a thread so we can all discuss it.

If you don't have an agenda, why didn't you post every series?

I took the time to do so in the Offensive thread.

Here is a theory: The teams LeBron played on had inadequate defensive talent and were held together by LeBron James [and other players at times] but would ultimately fall apart occasionally when teams had ample time to prepare in combination of having the offensive talent to exploit the deficiencies of the defenses. Unfortunately LeBron never had a David Robinson, Draymond Green, Scottie Pippen or even Horace Grant level defender for most of his prime seasons. There is also the variance of 3P shooting, which makes outlier rORtg series far more common with the sheer volume of 3P shots compared to previous eras.

It also could be a good idea to see what other teams in the playoffs did against the teams LeBron faced compared to their Regular Season. Do you really think the 2013 Spurs tried as hard in the regular season as they did in the post-season?

For example, they were +5.6, +1.2 and +8.6 leading up-to the Finals, where they were only +5.6. Seems right in line with the previous 3 series, no?

The 2017 Warriors were +6.3, +10.8 and +18.7 leading up the Finals where they were only +5.7. Considering both series prior to the Finals the Warriors absolutely torched Top 5 Defenses, doesn't this make the Cavaliers defense actually look good?

The 2018 Cavaliers are one of the worst defensive teams to ever make the Finals. Why do we even care how they fared against the Warriors in the Finals? Is it any indication or testament to LeBron's defense?

But hey, the 2012 Thunder, who were only +0.2 in the Finals, yet were +10.3 in the WCF against the Spurs and +10.6 in the WCSF against the Lakers. That looks awfully impressive, no?

I didn't post every series because there is no need to. The title of the thread was about Lebron's defenses collapsing so why would I include series where they didn't collapse. What you're saying is that when someone talks about Lebron struggling in the 2011 Finals they need to post his numbers from every series he played or else they have an agenda. I disagree.

I think you're using the rORtg numbers for 2012 Thunder and 2017 Warriors instead of using their opponent's rDRtg numbers.

After all we are not discussing how much the Thunder and Warriors offense overperformed but how much Lebron's defenses underperformed.

2012 Thunder
Regular Season: 109.8
R1 vs Mavericks: 110.3 ORtg (+0.5)
WCSF vs Lakers: 115.0 ORtg (+5.2)
WCF vs Spurs: 113.5 ORtg (+3.7)
Finals vs Heat: 110.6 ORtg (+0.8)

Yes the Heat did a lot better than the Lakers and Spurs defenses that got torched. +0.8 still isn't good though.

2013 Spurs
Regular Season: 108.3 ORtg
R1 vs Lakers: 104.0 ORtg (-4.3)
WCSF vs Warriors: 102.0 ORtg (-6.3)
WCF vs Grizzlies: 108.9 ORtg (+0.6)
Finals vs. Heat: 109.3 ORtg (+1.0)

The Heat defense did worse than any other team against the 2013 Spurs.

2014 Spurs
Regular Season: 110.5 ORtg
R1 vs Mavericks: 113.1 ORtg (+2.6)
WCSF vs Blazers: 108.8 ORtg (-1.7)
WCF vs Thunder: 114.4 ORtg (+3.9)
Finals vs Heat: 120.8 ORtg (+10.3)

Yikes!

2017 Warriors
Regular Season: 115.6 ORtg
R1 vs Blazers: 117.1 ORtg (+1.5)
WCSF vs Jazz: 116.1 ORtg (+0.5)
WCF vs Spurs: 122.2 ORtg (+6.6)
Finals vs Cavaliers: 121.3 ORtg (+5.7)

Spurs did even worse defensively but worth noting that Kawhi was out from the 3rd quarter of Game 1 onwards. The opponents in the first two rounds did a lot better than the Cavs defensively. +5.7 is horrendously bad.

2018 Warriors
Regular Season: 113.6 ORtg
R1 vs Spurs: 113.7 ORtg (+0.1)
WCSF vs Pelicans: 108.8 ORtg (-4.8)
WCF vs Rockets: 114.5 (+0.9)
Finals vs Cavaliers: 124.6 ORtg (+11.0)

Yikes!

I could go through the other teams as well but takes a lot of time. The 2014 Pacers for instance were a bad offensive team all season and in the first two rounds of the playoffs had 0.0 and -4.0 respectively then exploded against the Heat with +6.1.

I only included the 2009-2018 stretch and only later rounds (ECF + Finals) except for 2010 where he lost in Round 2.

You know you have an agenda when you can't even be consistent with your own arbitrary thresholds and have to sneak in a second round +1.1 rDRtg as a defensive "collapse".

Especially when that “collapse” was actually the Cavs at a -.4 rDRtg with James on court, +6.5 rDRtg with James off court.

Anyways, looking at the list, only the 09 ECF and the 14/17/18 Finals stand out as particularly bad defensive team performances and the obvious theme there is hot opponent 3pt shooting. The +6.1 rDRtg in the 14 ECF looks horrible on paper but considering ORtg/DRtg sometimes get wonky for outlier paces (as noted in this thread of mine) and the fact the Heat had a +18.7 rORtg in that same series, it's a nothingburger.

In 2014 vs. the Pacers: Heat with LeBron on court had a -2.3 rDRtg, +18.4 rDRtg with LeBron off court.

Additionally, LeBron without Wade and Bosh on court had a 93.4 DRtg, a -10.2 rDRtg using NBA.com numbers. A lot of this was also that Mario Chalmers had a poor defensive series (James+Wade+Bosh tougher without Chalmers had a slightly -rDRtg and that Haslem should not be seeing any court time but did and was a horrifically bad 126.2 DRtg in his 79 minutes,

LeBron without Chalmers: 85.5 DRtg, -18.1 rDRtg

LeBron + Old Ray Allen: 96.6 DRtg, -7.0 rDRtg
LeBron + Cole: 83.9 DRtg, -19.7 rDRtg
LeBron + Rashard Lewis: 87.4 DRtg, -16.2 rDRtg
LeBron + Andersen: 87.8 DRtg, -15.8 rDRtg

These were listed under “collapses”

A single playoff series is way too small of a sample to use ON-OFF.

Are you sure ON-OFF helps your argument at all?



That's for for Lebron's entire Miami stint in the playoffs.

Lebron ON: 104.70 DRtg
Lebron OFF: 104.16 DRtg

The defense actually gets slightly better (-0.54) when Lebron sits.

Of course the sample size is still small even with 87 playoff games which is why I rarely rely on ON-OFF even for multiple playoff runs. It can be a data point at best. Although it does suggest that Lebron isn't a very impactful defender in a team context.

Since you love ON-OFF this should convince you that Miami Lebron was generally a below average defender in the playoffs.

[Colbinii]

2012 Thunder
Regular Season: 109.8
R1 vs Mavericks: 110.3 ORtg (+0.5)
WCSF vs Lakers: 115.0 ORtg (+5.2)
WCF vs Spurs: 113.5 ORtg (+3.7)
Finals vs Heat: 110.6 ORtg (+0.8)

Yes the Heat did a lot better than the Lakers and Spurs defenses that got torched. +0.8 still isn't good though.

Sure it is. It was significantly better than the previous 2 rounds.

2013 Spurs
Regular Season: 108.3 ORtg
R1 vs Lakers: 104.0 ORtg (-4.3)
WCSF vs Warriors: 102.0 ORtg (-6.3)
WCF vs Grizzlies: 108.9 ORtg (+0.6)
Finals vs. Heat: 109.3 ORtg (+1.0)

The Heat defense did worse than any other team against the 2013 Spurs.

By 0.4. So basically, they did the same as the Grizzles who were a 100.3 [2nd best in league] defense. That's quite good, no?

I could go through the other teams as well but takes a lot of time. The 2014 Pacers for instance were a bad offensive team all season and in the first two rounds of the playoffs had 0.0 and -4.0 respectively then exploded against the Heat with +6.1.

Yup--but in LeBron's minutes the Pacers had a putrid ORtg.

[Colbinii]

I think you're using the rORtg numbers for 2012 Thunder and 2017 Warriors instead of using their opponent's rDRtg numbers.

No ****. Did you even read my post?

It also could be a good idea to see what other teams in the playoffs did against the teams LeBron faced compared to their Regular Season. Do you really think the 2013 Spurs tried as hard in the regular season as they did in the post-season?

You assume that all teams play the same in the Regular Season as the Post-season. That is far from the truth. If it were the case, the 2015 Cavaliers beating the 2015 Hawks is one of the bigger upsets we have seen. Do you really think that's the case?

[Colbinii]

2008 Washington: -3.6 rORtg
2008 Celtics: -9.2 rORtg
Boston's other 3 series? +6.6, +1.2 and +2.9

[Djoker]

Umm.. what. The 2008 Celtics held their playoffs opponents down significantly in terms of rDRtg: Hawks -4.3, Cavaliers -3.7, Pistons -2.0 and Lakers -9.1. So did other good defensive teams like the Spurs for most of Duncan's prime. Look up Spurs' rDRtg from 1999 to 2007. There is almost no positive rDRtg series in later rounds.

If we're going to use playoff ON-OFF to justify the 2014 ECF then we have to acknowledge that Heat defenses generally got better when Lebron sat on the bench in the playoffs for his entire Miami stint.

Are you willing to do that?

A single playoff series is way too small of a sample to use ON-OFF.

Are you sure ON-OFF helps your argument at all?



That's for for Lebron's entire Miami stint in the playoffs.

Lebron ON: 104.70 DRtg
Lebron OFF: 104.16 DRtg

The defense actually gets slightly better (-0.54) when Lebron sits.

Of course the sample size is still small even with 87 playoff games which is why I rarely rely on ON-OFF even for multiple playoff runs. It can be a data point at best. Although it does suggest that Lebron isn't a very impactful defender in a team context.

Since you love ON-OFF this should convince you that Miami Lebron was generally a below average defender in the playoffs.

[Colbinii]

2011 Sixers: -4.6 rORtg
2011 Celtics: -2.2 rORtg
2011 Bulls: -7.7 rORtg

2012 Knicks: -7.8 rORtg
2012 Pacers: -7.5 rORtg
2012 Celtics: +2.5 rORtg

[Colbinii]

Umm.. what. The 2008 Celtics held their playoffs opponents down significantly in terms of rDRtg: Hawks -4.3, Cavaliers -3.7, Pistons -2.0 and Lakers -9.1. So did other good defensive teams like the Spurs for most of Duncan's prime. Look up Spurs' rDRtg from 1999 to 2007. There is almost no positive rDRtg series in later rounds.

If we're going to use playoff ON-OFF to justify the 2014 ECF then we have to acknowledge that Heat defenses generally got better when Lebron sat on the bench in the playoffs for his entire Miami stint.

Are you willing to do that?

A single playoff series is way too small of a sample to use ON-OFF.

Are you sure ON-OFF helps your argument at all?



That's for for Lebron's entire Miami stint in the playoffs.

Lebron ON: 104.70 DRtg
Lebron OFF: 104.16 DRtg

The defense actually gets slightly better (-0.54) when Lebron sits.

Of course the sample size is still small even with 87 playoff games which is why I rarely rely on ON-OFF even for multiple playoff runs. It can be a data point at best. Although it does suggest that Lebron isn't a very impactful defender in a team context.

Since you love ON-OFF this should convince you that Miami Lebron was generally a below average defender in the playoffs.

Again, couldn't it be explained by this?

Here is a theory: The teams LeBron played on had inadequate defensive talent and were held together by LeBron James [and other players at times] but would ultimately fall apart occasionally when teams had ample time to prepare in combination of having the offensive talent to exploit the deficiencies of the defenses. Unfortunately LeBron never had a David Robinson, Draymond Green, Scottie Pippen or even Horace Grant level defender for most of his prime seasons. There is also the variance of 3P shooting, which makes outlier rORtg series far more common with the sheer volume of 3P shots compared to previous eras.

And considering LeBron's statistics typically go up in later rounds, wouldn't this make more sense?

Using rORtg of opponents against LeBron's teams doesn't correlate to LeBron directly.

[Djoker]

Umm.. what. The 2008 Celtics held their playoffs opponents down significantly in terms of rDRtg: Hawks -4.3, Cavaliers -3.7, Pistons -2.0 and Lakers -9.1. So did other good defensive teams like the Spurs for most of Duncan's prime. Look up Spurs' rDRtg from 1999 to 2007. There is almost no positive rDRtg series in later rounds.

If we're going to use playoff ON-OFF to justify the 2014 ECF then we have to acknowledge that Heat defenses generally got better when Lebron sat on the bench in the playoffs for his entire Miami stint.

Are you willing to do that?

A single playoff series is way too small of a sample to use ON-OFF.

Are you sure ON-OFF helps your argument at all?



That's for for Lebron's entire Miami stint in the playoffs.

Lebron ON: 104.70 DRtg
Lebron OFF: 104.16 DRtg

The defense actually gets slightly better (-0.54) when Lebron sits.

Of course the sample size is still small even with 87 playoff games which is why I rarely rely on ON-OFF even for multiple playoff runs. It can be a data point at best. Although it does suggest that Lebron isn't a very impactful defender in a team context.

Since you love ON-OFF this should convince you that Miami Lebron was generally a below average defender in the playoffs.

Again, couldn't it be explained by this?

Here is a theory: The teams LeBron played on had inadequate defensive talent and were held together by LeBron James [and other players at times] but would ultimately fall apart occasionally when teams had ample time to prepare in combination of having the offensive talent to exploit the deficiencies of the defenses. Unfortunately LeBron never had a David Robinson, Draymond Green, Scottie Pippen or even Horace Grant level defender for most of his prime seasons. There is also the variance of 3P shooting, which makes outlier rORtg series far more common with the sheer volume of 3P shots compared to previous eras.

And considering LeBron's statistics typically go up in later rounds, wouldn't this make more sense?

Using rORtg of opponents against LeBron's teams doesn't correlate to LeBron directly.

Ok so at least now you're acknowledging the defensive underperformances and trying to explain them. This is a step in the right direction.

Inadequate defensive talent? I don't know that I'd agree with that. He had the likes of Chalmers, Battier, Haslem, Bosh, Joel and Birdman all of whom were good defensive players and Wade was likely a slight positive as well. Having a historically great defender like David Robinson is a tad bit unrealistic when the supporting cast already had two all-stars on offense in Wade and Bosh. Mind you a lot of the Heat players I listed above have stronger impact signals than Lebron on defense i.e. the team DRtg gets worse when they sit vs. when Lebron sits.

Variance of 3pt shooting can explain maybe one series underperformance but is not a good explanation generally. A good defensive team can contest 3pt shots and/or run shooters off the line.

If you said the entire premise of having a team anchored by a non-big paint protector like Lebron is in itself a flawed premise, I'd listen and probably agree.

[lessthanjake]

One thing I’d add further to this. Given that, during LeBron’s defensive peak, we know LeBron’s teams virtually always were bad defensively in the business end of the playoffs, what does that tell us about what happened in later years that were after LeBron’s defensive peak? In those later years, LeBron’s teams certainly did do badly defensively in late playoff series, but it actually wasn’t quite as consistent as it was in LeBron’s defensive peak. So how does that make sense? People want to give the credit for those defensive performances to LeBron. But if LeBron at his defensive peak and with high-ranked defenses consistently resulted in bad late-stage playoff defenses, then why should we assume that LeBron outside of his defensive peak was somehow the reason his teams actually had some good late-stage playoff performances defensively? The more logical explanation is that the team just happened to do well for other reasons (whether that’s the other teams luckily being below their norm offensively, or coaching, or random shooting variance). It does not make sense to assume non-defensive-peak LeBron should get credit for his teams being good defensively in some playoff series when defensive-peak LeBron with good defensive teams consistently failed to be able to do that. The evidence shows that LeBron at his defensive peak was unable to create high-quality late-stage playoff defense, and so we can easily conclude he is not responsible for it when it did happen later. [Note: To a large degree, I'm parodying arguments that certain people here often make in other contexts, where apparently a team-level improvement can't be credited at all to a particular player if the poster happens to believe that that player probably didn’t improve in any way at the same time].

[Colbinii]

Umm.. what. The 2008 Celtics held their playoffs opponents down significantly in terms of rDRtg: Hawks -4.3, Cavaliers -3.7, Pistons -2.0 and Lakers -9.1. So did other good defensive teams like the Spurs for most of Duncan's prime. Look up Spurs' rDRtg from 1999 to 2007. There is almost no positive rDRtg series in later rounds.

If we're going to use playoff ON-OFF to justify the 2014 ECF then we have to acknowledge that Heat defenses generally got better when Lebron sat on the bench in the playoffs for his entire Miami stint.

Are you willing to do that?

Again, couldn't it be explained by this?

Here is a theory: The teams LeBron played on had inadequate defensive talent and were held together by LeBron James [and other players at times] but would ultimately fall apart occasionally when teams had ample time to prepare in combination of having the offensive talent to exploit the deficiencies of the defenses. Unfortunately LeBron never had a David Robinson, Draymond Green, Scottie Pippen or even Horace Grant level defender for most of his prime seasons. There is also the variance of 3P shooting, which makes outlier rORtg series far more common with the sheer volume of 3P shots compared to previous eras.

And considering LeBron's statistics typically go up in later rounds, wouldn't this make more sense?

Using rORtg of opponents against LeBron's teams doesn't correlate to LeBron directly.

Ok so at least now you're acknowledging the defensive underperformances and trying to explain them. This is a step in the right direction.

I did this in the first page already...

Inadequate defensive talent? I don't know that I'd agree with that. He had the likes of Chalmers, Battier, Haslem, Bosh, Joel and Birdman all of whom were good defensive players and Wade was likely a slight positive as well. Having a historically great defender like David Robinson is a tad bit unrealistic when the supporting cast already had two all-stars on offense in Wade and Bosh. Mind you a lot of the Heat players I listed above have stronger impact signals than Lebron on defense i.e. the team DRtg gets worse when they sit vs. when Lebron sits.

What year? The 2011 and 2012 Heat were electric on defense.

2011 Sixers: -4.6 rORtg
2011 Celtics: -2.2 rORtg
2011 Bulls: -7.7 rORtg
2011 Mavericks: +1.0 rORtg

2012 Knicks: -7.8 rORtg
2012 Pacers: -7.5 rORtg
2012 Celtics: +2.5 rORtg
2012 Thunder: +0.8 rORtg

This results in an average of -3.2 per series, with 4 series closer to Historically Great Series than Best in league good series.

Now, if we look at 2013 and 2014--what changed?

Well, in round 1, Miami was where they were the previous two seasons, with Milwaukee posting a meager -9.0 rORTG while the Bulls in the next round were at -4.8 rORtg.

What happened in Round 3 against Indiana? Well, Battier fell out of the rotation as he couldn't shoot because of his back [12 minutes in game 5 and 6, 0 minutes in game 7]. Chris Andersen gets suspended for game 6 [Another player you list as a good defender. Then you have to point out LeBron led an offense which was +12.1 rORtg against a 99.8 [1st in league Drtg] while his 2nd option was posting 15/5/4 on sub-50 TS% [Wade]. Hell, all 3 of Bosh/Wade/Allen had a Sub-50 TS% in this series.

The game of basketball is an equilibrium, and it isn't a surprise to remember that this series was largely defined by LeBron going absolutely nuclear offensively against an elite defense. All this really proves is he couldn't anchor a GOAT level offense and Great defense in this specific series. I don't think any player in NBA History could ever come close to anchoring a Great Offense and Great defense in the same series, so looking at what were LeBron's responsibilities in this series [and any series] is important.

This also leads to the next question we ask--who are we comparing LeBron to here? Should we look at other 30%+ Usage players, assess their defensive responsibility and share and compare it to LeBron? Or are we just simply comparing LeBron to nobody and being hyper-critical of him for something we don't understand the difficulty of?

Variance of 3pt shooting can explain maybe one series underperformance but is not a good explanation generally. A good defensive team can contest 3pt shots and/or run shooters off the line.

Well, you don't know that. Have you actually looked at just how variable Modern Era offenses are in the post-season? What if it is 25%? You listed 25% of LeBron's total series in the OP. You don't know, and until you do know by doing your own calculation, making wildly unfounded assumptions like "It is generally not a good explanation" doesn't make sense because you don't know, at all.

If you said the entire premise of having a team anchored by a non-big paint protector like Lebron is in itself a flawed premise, I'd listen and probably agree.

Then how do you explain 2011, 2012 and the 2015-2017 Cavaliers?

Clearly those Miami teams were very good defensively. Think about this: The Dirk Mavs were at 113, 115 and 117 ORtg in the previous 3 rounds and were held to just 110 against Miami. That is quite impressive considering the Mavs were dicing up every opponent in the playoffs to a much larger degree than what they were held to against Miami.

Again, I think it is flawed to simply sight Regular Season ORtg/DRtg when the smaller-sample size of the post-season prior to facing Miami is--in all liklihood--a better assessment of what a team is capable of in a playoff setting vs regular setting.

[Colbinii]

One thing I’d add further to this. Given that, during LeBron’s defensive peak, we know LeBron’s teams virtually always were bad defensively in the business end of the playoffs, what does that tell us about what happened in later years that were after LeBron’s defensive peak? In those later years, LeBron’s teams certainly did do badly defensively in late playoff series, but it actually wasn’t quite as consistent as it was in LeBron’s defensive peak. So how does that make sense? People want to give the credit for those defensive performances to LeBron. But if LeBron at his defensive peak and with high-ranked defenses consistently resulted in bad late-stage playoff defenses, then why should we assume that LeBron outside of his defensive peak was somehow the reason his teams actually had some good late-stage playoff performances defensively? The more logical explanation is that the team just happened to do well for other reasons (whether that’s the other teams luckily being below their norm offensively, or coaching, or random shooting variance). It does not make sense to assume non-defensive-peak LeBron should get credit for his teams being good defensively in some playoff series when defensive-peak LeBron with good defensive teams consistently failed to be able to do that. The evidence shows that LeBron at his defensive peak was unable to create high-quality late-stage playoff defense, and so we can easily conclude he is not responsible for it when it did happen later. [Note: To a large degree, I'm parodying arguments that certain people here often make in other contexts, where apparently a team-level improvement can't be credited at all to a particular player if the poster happens to believe that that player probably didn’t improve in any way at the same time].

Or, here me out...

Here is a theory: The teams LeBron played on had inadequate defensive talent and were held together by LeBron James [and other players at times] but would ultimately fall apart occasionally when teams had ample time to prepare in combination of having the offensive talent to exploit the deficiencies of the defenses.

[lessthanjake]

One thing I’d add further to this. Given that, during LeBron’s defensive peak, we know LeBron’s teams virtually always were bad defensively in the business end of the playoffs, what does that tell us about what happened in later years that were after LeBron’s defensive peak? In those later years, LeBron’s teams certainly did do badly defensively in late playoff series, but it actually wasn’t quite as consistent as it was in LeBron’s defensive peak. So how does that make sense? People want to give the credit for those defensive performances to LeBron. But if LeBron at his defensive peak and with high-ranked defenses consistently resulted in bad late-stage playoff defenses, then why should we assume that LeBron outside of his defensive peak was somehow the reason his teams actually had some good late-stage playoff performances defensively? The more logical explanation is that the team just happened to do well for other reasons (whether that’s the other teams luckily being below their norm offensively, or coaching, or random shooting variance). It does not make sense to assume non-defensive-peak LeBron should get credit for his teams being good defensively in some playoff series when defensive-peak LeBron with good defensive teams consistently failed to be able to do that. The evidence shows that LeBron at his defensive peak was unable to create high-quality late-stage playoff defense, and so we can easily conclude he is not responsible for it when it did happen later. [Note: To a large degree, I'm parodying arguments that certain people here often make in other contexts, where apparently a team-level improvement can't be credited at all to a particular player if the poster happens to believe that that player probably didn’t improve in any way at the same time].

Or, here me out...

Here is a theory: The teams LeBron played on had inadequate defensive talent and were held together by LeBron James [and other players at times] but would ultimately fall apart occasionally when teams had ample time to prepare in combination of having the offensive talent to exploit the deficiencies of the defenses.

I wouldn’t really say those teams had inadequate defensive talent. That seems like something you want to be true for argument’s purposes but really isn’t. In any event, if someone was an elite “defensive anchor,” then that simply wouldn’t happen. Nor were those teams even plausibly “inadequate” in terms of defensive talent except for an arguable lack of an elite defensive anchor. So the argument here would basically just have to involve conceding that LeBron was not an elite defensive anchor—which is exactly my point. LeBron was a really good defensive player in that era, but the hyperbole some engage in about his peak-level defense (suggesting he was an elite defensive anchor, etc.) is just manifestly inconsistent with the information provided in this thread. Elite defensive anchors don’t have their teams be consistently bad defensively in the business end of the playoffs, and especially not when the team is defensively talented enough to have been really good defensively in the regular season. It’s not fathomable. And it wasn’t the case with LeBron either. What is the case with LeBron is that he simply was not at the level of elite defensive impact that people here sometimes hyperbolically claim.

[Colbinii]

One thing I’d add further to this. Given that, during LeBron’s defensive peak, we know LeBron’s teams virtually always were bad defensively in the business end of the playoffs, what does that tell us about what happened in later years that were after LeBron’s defensive peak? In those later years, LeBron’s teams certainly did do badly defensively in late playoff series, but it actually wasn’t quite as consistent as it was in LeBron’s defensive peak. So how does that make sense? People want to give the credit for those defensive performances to LeBron. But if LeBron at his defensive peak and with high-ranked defenses consistently resulted in bad late-stage playoff defenses, then why should we assume that LeBron outside of his defensive peak was somehow the reason his teams actually had some good late-stage playoff performances defensively? The more logical explanation is that the team just happened to do well for other reasons (whether that’s the other teams luckily being below their norm offensively, or coaching, or random shooting variance). It does not make sense to assume non-defensive-peak LeBron should get credit for his teams being good defensively in some playoff series when defensive-peak LeBron with good defensive teams consistently failed to be able to do that. The evidence shows that LeBron at his defensive peak was unable to create high-quality late-stage playoff defense, and so we can easily conclude he is not responsible for it when it did happen later. [Note: To a large degree, I'm parodying arguments that certain people here often make in other contexts, where apparently a team-level improvement can't be credited at all to a particular player if the poster happens to believe that that player probably didn’t improve in any way at the same time].

Or, here me out...

Here is a theory: The teams LeBron played on had inadequate defensive talent and were held together by LeBron James [and other players at times] but would ultimately fall apart occasionally when teams had ample time to prepare in combination of having the offensive talent to exploit the deficiencies of the defenses.

I wouldn’t really say those teams had inadequate defensive talent. That seems like something you want to be true for argument’s purposes but really isn’t. In any event, if someone was an elite “defensive anchor,” then that simply wouldn’t happen. Nor were those teams even plausibly “inadequate” in terms of defensive talent except for an arguable lack of an elite defensive anchor. So the argument here would basically just have to involve conceding that LeBron was not an elite defensive anchor—which is exactly my point. LeBron was a really good defensive player in that era, but the hyperbole some engage in about his peak-level defense (suggesting he was an elite defensive anchor, etc.) is just manifestly inconsistent with the information provided in this thread. Elite defensive anchors don’t have their teams be consistently bad defensively in the business end of the playoffs, and especially not when the team is defensively talented enough to have been really good defensively in the regular season. It’s not fathomable. And it wasn’t the case with LeBron either. What is the case with LeBron is that he simply was not at the level of elite defensive impact that people here sometimes hyperbolically claim.

So the point of this thread is to say LeBron wasn't as good as the Tim Duncan/Hakeem Olajuwon/Patrick Ewing/Kevin Garnetts of the world?

[Djoker]

What year? The 2011 and 2012 Heat were electric on defense.

Electric?

The only series they didn't have positive rDRtg (=bad) at is the 2011 ECF vs Bulls.

Destroying weak teams in the 1st and 2nd rounds is nice but I concede that. I'm talking about the ECF and Finals.

2011 Sixers: -4.6 rORtg
2011 Celtics: -2.2 rORtg
2011 Bulls: -7.7 rORtg
2011 Mavericks: +1.0 rORtg

2012 Knicks: -7.8 rORtg
2012 Pacers: -7.5 rORtg
2012 Celtics: +2.5 rORtg
2012 Thunder: +0.8 rORtg

This results in an average of -3.2 per series, with 4 series closer to Historically Great Series than Best in league good series.

Again, 3/4 ECF + Finals series, the Heat were below average defensively.

Now, if we look at 2013 and 2014--what changed?

Well, in round 1, Miami was where they were the previous two seasons, with Milwaukee posting a meager -9.0 rORTG while the Bulls in the next round were at -4.8 rORtg.

What happened in Round 3 against Indiana? Well, Battier fell out of the rotation as he couldn't shoot because of his back [12 minutes in game 5 and 6, 0 minutes in game 7]. Chris Andersen gets suspended for game 6 [Another player you list as a good defender. Then you have to point out LeBron led an offense which was +12.1 rORtg against a 99.8 [1st in league Drtg] while his 2nd option was posting 15/5/4 on sub-50 TS% [Wade]. Hell, all 3 of Bosh/Wade/Allen had a Sub-50 TS% in this series.

The game of basketball is an equilibrium, and it isn't a surprise to remember that this series was largely defined by LeBron going absolutely nuclear offensively against an elite defense. All this really proves is he couldn't anchor a GOAT level offense and Great defense in this specific series. I don't think any player in NBA History could ever come close to anchoring a Great Offense and Great defense in the same series, so looking at what were LeBron's responsibilities in this series [and any series] is important.

This also leads to the next question we ask--who are we comparing LeBron to here? Should we look at other 30%+ Usage players, assess their defensive responsibility and share and compare it to LeBron? Or are we just simply comparing LeBron to nobody and being hyper-critical of him for something we don't understand the difficulty of?

Variance of 3pt shooting can explain maybe one series underperformance but is not a good explanation generally. A good defensive team can contest 3pt shots and/or run shooters off the line.

Well, you don't know that. Have you actually looked at just how variable Modern Era offenses are in the post-season? What if it is 25%? You listed 25% of LeBron's total series in the OP. You don't know, and until you do know by doing your own calculation, making wildly unfounded assumptions like "It is generally not a good explanation" doesn't make sense because you don't know, at all.

Ok so Lebron should not be expected to anchor a defense because of his large offensive load.

Then how do you explain 2011, 2012 and the 2015-2017 Cavaliers?

Clearly those Miami teams were very good defensively. Think about this: The Dirk Mavs were at 113, 115 and 117 ORtg in the previous 3 rounds and were held to just 110 against Miami. That is quite impressive considering the Mavs were dicing up every opponent in the playoffs to a much larger degree than what they were held to against Miami.

Again, I think it is flawed to simply sight Regular Season ORtg/DRtg when the smaller-sample size of the post-season prior to facing Miami is--in all liklihood--a better assessment of what a team is capable of in a playoff setting vs regular setting.

2011 was a mediocre defensive year letting the Finals opponent produce above their averages.

2012 was a bad defensive year letting both the ECF and Finals opponent produce above their averages.

2017 was a really bad defensive year letting the Finals opponent torch them.

2015 and 2016 the Cavs did really have great playoff defenses. The way I would explain it is:

- Kevin Love got hurt early in 2015 and Tristan who is a very good defender (solid case for best on the team IMO) got a lot of minutes. In fact TT averaged 36 mpg in the 2015 playoffs. Kyrie, who gave the Cavs a lot of offensive lift but was also a defensive liability, missed games or DNP most of the final two rounds further improving the defense. The Cavs lineup was very defensively oriented with Delly/Shumpert/Lebron/Tristan/Mozgov and then JR off the bench.

- In 2016 Love also missed one game in the Finals in which the Cavs won by 30 points and had a -18.4 rDRtg. TT played more than in the Finals with 32 mpg and was really good on defense once again. It's also worth noting that the Cavs faced a Warriors team that because of Curry's injury wasn't nearly as good on offense as they were in the RS. The Thunder with Curry playing the whole series had a -6.7 rDRtg compared to the Cavs who had a -6.0 rDRtg. So I'd probably grade the Cavs' defense in the Finals as less impressive than what the raw numbers are showing. The Raptors were totally decimated by the Cavs' defense so it was still a great defensive playoff run but less so than 2015.

[OhayoKD]

One thing I’d add further to this. Given that, during LeBron’s defensive peak, we know LeBron’s teams virtually always were bad defensively in the business end of the playoffs

Or, here me out...

Here is a theory: The teams LeBron played on had inadequate defensive talent and were held together by LeBron James [and other players at times] but would ultimately fall apart occasionally when teams had ample time to prepare in combination of having the offensive talent to exploit the deficiencies of the defenses.

Or Here me out:

and then if i add in 2015-2017 Lebron the defense is a strong positive 5 of 7 late game series

Lessthanjake randomly chose a "peak" based on regular-season media perception so they can ignore the data they don't like.

They know full well the results defensively and overall are too good for their agenda given what those teams were doing without Lebron. Thus lessthanjake and djoker are cherrypicking results

Kevin Love got hurt early in 2015 and Tristan who is a very good defender (solid case for best on the team IMO) got a lot of minutes. In fact TT averaged 36 mpg in the 2015 playoffs. Kyrie, who gave the Cavs a lot of offensive lift but was also a defensive liability, missed games or DNP most of the final two rounds further improving the defense. The Cavs lineup was very defensively oriented with Delly/Shumpert/Lebron/Tristan/Mozgov and then JR off the bench.

That defensively orientated cast made up of guys who were nuetral or negative defenders at their previous stops?

It's also worth noting that the Cavs faced a Warriors team that because of Curry's injury wasn't nearly as good on offense as they were in the RS. The Thunder with Curry playing the whole series had a -6.7 rDRtg compared to the Cavs who had a -6.0 rDRtg. So I'd probably grade the Cavs' defense in the Finals as less impressive than what the raw numbers are showing. The Raptors were totally decimated by the Cavs' defense so it was still a great defensive playoff run but less so than 2015.

Except the cavs rolling playoff defensive rating was better than with a flat approach. In other words, regular season o-rating underrates their performance:

Playoff Offensive Rating: +11.43 (4th), Playoff Defensive Rating: -3.82 (68th)
Playoff SRS: +14.55 (8th), Total SRS Increase through Playoffs: +5.84 (5th)
Shooting Advantage: +3.1%, Possession Advantage: +2.7 shooting possessions per game
Average Playoff Opponent Offense: +3.42 (16th), Average Playoff Opponent Defense: -2.33 (43rd)

And yes, djoker has been provided this information plenty of times. I wonder what has motivated them to ignore it

[parsnips33]

Did Bron get significantly better as a defender post Miami? What was doing differently on the court?

[SHAQ32]

I would tend to think it's because LeBron can't anchor a team defensively

[lessthanjake]

Or, here me out...

I wouldn’t really say those teams had inadequate defensive talent. That seems like something you want to be true for argument’s purposes but really isn’t. In any event, if someone was an elite “defensive anchor,” then that simply wouldn’t happen. Nor were those teams even plausibly “inadequate” in terms of defensive talent except for an arguable lack of an elite defensive anchor. So the argument here would basically just have to involve conceding that LeBron was not an elite defensive anchor—which is exactly my point. LeBron was a really good defensive player in that era, but the hyperbole some engage in about his peak-level defense (suggesting he was an elite defensive anchor, etc.) is just manifestly inconsistent with the information provided in this thread. Elite defensive anchors don’t have their teams be consistently bad defensively in the business end of the playoffs, and especially not when the team is defensively talented enough to have been really good defensively in the regular season. It’s not fathomable. And it wasn’t the case with LeBron either. What is the case with LeBron is that he simply was not at the level of elite defensive impact that people here sometimes hyperbolically claim.

So the point of this thread is to say LeBron wasn't as good as the Tim Duncan/Hakeem Olajuwon/Patrick Ewing/Kevin Garnetts of the world?

And not as good as plenty of somewhat lesser elite “defensive anchors” than that too. To me it’s just an obvious point that shouldn’t even be remotely controversial or need to be said. So I don’t even really disagree with your reaction. The problem is that the point is a necessary one to make because there are people here that sling around arguments revolving around LeBron being an elite defensive anchor. They’re silly arguments, and the information provided in this thread just clarifies something that really should already be obvious to everyone.