penbeast0 wrote:
Is this a consistent argument you make? Giannis for example hasn't averaged 35 mpg since 2018, Embiid has never averaged that much, nor has Jokic. Jones's minutes were lower than theirs were, though, so my counter isn't that strong.
Hmm. Well I would say this also lacks some teeth because these guys are also leaps/bounds/several tiers (stratospheres) separate as offensive players.
But further, there are notable era differences to account for. The game is so much more spread out by efficient use of the 3pt line, that defenders have to cover a great deal more ground EACH AND EVERY possession.
I wish I could find a link to the work, but somebody once tracked steps taken per defensive possession (can’t remember if it was ALL defenders or only perimeter players), comparing games from the early 10s to the mid-80s, iirc. He found defenders were taking something like 43% more steps in the 10s.
That generates fatigue at a faster rate. This has likely become even more relevant in recent years. Load management has also become more of a thing.
Consequently, NO ONE has averaged as much as 39 mpg in any of the last 11 seasons. THAT is the league environment in which the guys you mention are averaging 32-34 (or so) mpg.
Jones maxed out (before working a sixth man role) at <35 mpg in an era were the league leaders avg 42-44 mpg. And this was because of physical limitations (asthma). I think it’s conceivable he’d max out around 28-30 mpg today, simply being incapable of effectively playing more.
Whereas, as mentioned, Marion averaged 39.1 over a 9-year prime, which took place just barely before the time-frame mentioned above (he was four times in the league’s top 9 [twice top 3]). Those effects (covering more ground) were beginning to be a factor at that time.