AEnigma wrote:- Alex English
- Dominique Wilkins
- Tony Parker
- Kevin Johnson
The other four to me seem likely to have made their last appearance — although I would hold back on kicking them out of the top 100 entirely.
Just some thoughts about those four remaining in the Top 100.
Kevin JohnsonI didn't really think of him as a Top 100 guy coming into the project, but after looking at the numbers, I became higher on him, then after identifying what I thought was a huge impact signal, became very high on him, then after realizing the signal wasn't what it seemed, tempered my enthusiasm a little, while still thinking highly of him.
So the aforementioned impact signal was the Suns going from 28-54/-4.80 SRS and a DNQ in 87-88(where KJ played only 28 games after being acquired midseason for Larry Nance) to 55-27/6.84 SRS and WCF appearance in 88-89, KJ's first full season there. That is a ten point SRS swing. Now, what I realized after looking closer was that 87-88 was also Tom Chambers' first season in Phoenix, as well as Mark West's first full season there(having been acquired in the same deal as KJ), as well as Thunder Dan's rookie year. Now, KJ and Chambers are the biggest factors, and it being Chambers' first season there(where he put up 25.7ppg on +1.0 rTS along with 8.4rpg) takes some shine off the impact signal.
Still, KJ's box composites and efficiency were higher than Chambers' that season(and the next) in both RS and PO:
88-89 Johnson: .184 WS/48, 4.2 BPM, 59.7% TS RS, .193 WS/48, 5.4 BPM, 61.8% TS PO
Chambers: .146 WS/48, 1.4 BPM, 54.7% TS RS, .131 WS/48, 2.5 BPM, 53.5% TS PO
89-90Johnson: .200 WS/48, 5.0 BPM, 58.5% TS RS, .148 WS/48, 6.1 BPM, 55.5% TS PO
Chambers: .176 WS/48, 2.3 BPM, 57.9% TS RS, .082 WS/48, -0.5 BPM, 53.3% TS PO
And is it a coincidence that what looks like Chambers' two-season peak came when he started playing with KJ(but before he declined)? There has to be a reason we're talking about KJ in this project and not Chambers, right?
So while KJ probably can't fairly be given ALL the credit for that ten point SRS swing, I still think he probably deserves more credit than anyone else.
Impact data(aside from that signal) is limited, but we have on/off for his later seasons via Pollack(94-96) and bbref(97-98):
93-94: +7.5
94-95: -0.6(he only played 47 games that season)
95-96: +7.9
96-97: +5.9 / +6.4
97-98: +1.6 / -10.3
(I am disregarding his six-game comeback attempt in in the Spring of 2000.)
RAPM is pretty limited for KJ. Via Squared, we have:
2.03 RAPM over a 21 game sample in 1990-91
0.99 RAPM over a 9 game sample in 1992-93(only played 49 games)
2.63 RAPM over a 16 game sample in 1995-96
and JE's full-season RAPM for KJ in 96-97, 97-98, and 99-00 are all <1(but >0). Disregarding 2000 again, but it's worth noting that in 97 and 98, KJ had strong O-RAPMs(3.02 and 3.47) but equally weak D-RAPMs which reduced the overall RAPM to nearly 0.
Anyway, I think there is enough in his box numbers, the limited impact data, and his team success(A Finals appearance, two other WCF appearances) to warrant a spot.
Alex EnglishI'm not super high on English, but I'd probably take him over Nique. Comparable regular season box composites(English at .127 WS/48 and 2.0 BPM vs Nique at .148 WS/48 and 3.3 BPM), but English tops Nique in playoff box composites(.129 WS/48 and 2.7 BPM vs Nique's .079 WS/48 and 2.6 BPM) and is more efficient(+1.4 rTS for his career vs Nique's -0.1 rTS). English didn't have much playoff success, but he did have that 1985 WCF run, which is more than Nique ever had.
Also worth pointing out that when English missed the last game of the 1985 WCF vs the Lakers, the Nuggets lost by a whopping 44 points where their previous losses in the series had been by 17, 18, and 4.
Dominique WilkinsA guy I grew up watching, still makes a hell of a highlight video(it was his nickname after all), but we're talking about a <0 rTS volume scorer who never made it past the second round. Worth discussing because, despite his statistical flaws, he was still the #1 option on a team that had a pretty strong four-year run from 85-86 to 88-89:
85-86: 50 wins, 2.59 SRS
86-87: 57 wins, 7.18 SRS
87-88: 50 wins, 4.02 SRS
88-89: 52 wins, 5.26 SRS
I can't quite figure out why the team became good in this four year stretch. For the first three years of Nique's career before that, they had negative SRS. For the four years after that, the team had <1 SRS(one of those seasons was the year of his achilles injury, yes, but that's one season).
Dominique had been there three years before the team got good. Doc Rivers and Randy Wittman had been there for two years before they got good. Fratello had been coaching for two years before they got good. Tree Rollins had been around since 1977. Kevin Willis had been there for one year.
What suddenly made them good in 85-86? The only "new" things I can see is that Willis had a bigger role and increased efficiency compared to his rookie year, and it was also Spud Webb's rookie year(who came off the bench in a 15mpg role for those four competitive years).
I'm trying to find a convicing impact signal from somewhere else to explain the jump in team performance - because to do so would be a potential argument against Dominique - but I can't find one.
So for that reason, and because I am supporting Iverson(another high volume low efficiency guy), I am, for the moment, resisting the urge to boot Dominique from the Top 100, even though I am not very high on him.
Tony ParkerI'm increasingly skeptical. I'll just quote myself from an earlier thread:
OldSchoolNoBull wrote:I have been questioning Parker a lot lately.
His career playoff box composites: .084 WS/48, 0.3 BPM. In the Spurs' championship runs, Manu is pretty much always putting up considerably better numbers.
He is -0.8 on/off in the playoffs for his career.
His Finals MVP is probably one of the more dubious ones in league history.
I don't love long-term RAPM as a stat, but Parker is at #719 in J.E.'s new dataset, with a 0.7(frankly, looking at his year-by-year RAPM, I though it'd be a bit better than that).