Re: RealGM 2023 Top 100 Project - #97 (Deadline 4/29 5am PST)
Posted: Sat Apr 27, 2024 12:43 pm
Not really bothered about where Hagan goes and he probably came on to the board too early so I wouldn't let that alter any assessment of him ... but some thoughts
Granting that you're listing it as one factor ...
The WoWYR numbers if not exactly compelling (and they aren't) aren't, iirc, particularly close to as bad as as the numbers from your WoWY numbers.
And the framing them of "exceedingly pedestrian" ... and it not just being you trusting your own numbers ... I think your numbers may have been more front and center ... and I think you've cast doubt on the WOWYR ones ... and advocated for a guy with a slightly worse career number quite some time ago seeming to trust your own numbers more ... like Hagan off iirc, mostly very small samples. I don't know, I just don't get a good sense of your process/methodology in terms of using/trusting/aggregating these numbers.
My recollection was we had a quote from an owner, not a coach, though we may be thinking of different things. And if we aren't that quote had "don't take this at face value [/I am wrong/I am not thinking straight]" telegraphed in the Pettit comment.
It's fair to say he wasn't thought of as 1b as a player. In terms of "on a championship team" - with the assumed playoff focus, honestly I think BullsFan gave too much ground on this. By the boxscore Hagan was the best player on the team in those playoffs and there's not a lot of margin for him to be worse (without ... strategically dropping him in larger wins and holding him constant in close ones) even in the "easier" series who think that way.
Regarding appearing in NBA MVP voting ... we are talking about a 3 man ballot era. The criticism, then, is that he was not ranked by people above Russell, Chamberlain, Robertson (Pettit, Baylor, West) ... which ... he mostly wasn't ... that would have been wrong. Does that matter at this point? We don't have full ballot data but we have put in people that I don't think were getting much top 3 love many years.
Johnston is interesting. If one trusts the production he's a guy with a case as the best player in the game for a spell. Team results can cause some concern regarding impact. The playoff numbers do fall in a small sample. There's some notion that Russell somehow ended him though I think versions differ. In terms of the production side the leaders of the time tended to be bigs so separation from positional peers may be less than it seems. He's still playing in quite an early league. Depending on how one believes/trusts/weights these things I can see quite a large viable range for Johnston.
Some of the criticisms (re Hagan) maybe make more sense against an argument that Hagan was on the shortlist and should have been off the board long ago or was perceived in a particular way ... in any case some inspired some thoughts ... so there they are.
trex_8063 wrote:OldSchoolNoBull wrote:I did not then, and I do not now, find those W/L records especially compelling in light of their (lack of) size, and remain surprised that that argument was taken as gospel from then on.
I added to that Taylor's WOWYR (which factors in before/after he left, as well as some other weightings which [frequently enough] results in WOWYR often looking very different from raw WOWY. Hagan still looks exceedingly pedestrian in WOWYR (+1.3 for prime, +1.1 for career).
Granting that you're listing it as one factor ...
The WoWYR numbers if not exactly compelling (and they aren't) aren't, iirc, particularly close to as bad as as the numbers from your WoWY numbers.
And the framing them of "exceedingly pedestrian" ... and it not just being you trusting your own numbers ... I think your numbers may have been more front and center ... and I think you've cast doubt on the WOWYR ones ... and advocated for a guy with a slightly worse career number quite some time ago seeming to trust your own numbers more ... like Hagan off iirc, mostly very small samples. I don't know, I just don't get a good sense of your process/methodology in terms of using/trusting/aggregating these numbers.
My recollection was we had a quote from an owner, not a coach, though we may be thinking of different things. And if we aren't that quote had "don't take this at face value [/I am wrong/I am not thinking straight]" telegraphed in the Pettit comment.
It's fair to say he wasn't thought of as 1b as a player. In terms of "on a championship team" - with the assumed playoff focus, honestly I think BullsFan gave too much ground on this. By the boxscore Hagan was the best player on the team in those playoffs and there's not a lot of margin for him to be worse (without ... strategically dropping him in larger wins and holding him constant in close ones) even in the "easier" series who think that way.
Regarding appearing in NBA MVP voting ... we are talking about a 3 man ballot era. The criticism, then, is that he was not ranked by people above Russell, Chamberlain, Robertson (Pettit, Baylor, West) ... which ... he mostly wasn't ... that would have been wrong. Does that matter at this point? We don't have full ballot data but we have put in people that I don't think were getting much top 3 love many years.
Johnston is interesting. If one trusts the production he's a guy with a case as the best player in the game for a spell. Team results can cause some concern regarding impact. The playoff numbers do fall in a small sample. There's some notion that Russell somehow ended him though I think versions differ. In terms of the production side the leaders of the time tended to be bigs so separation from positional peers may be less than it seems. He's still playing in quite an early league. Depending on how one believes/trusts/weights these things I can see quite a large viable range for Johnston.
Some of the criticisms (re Hagan) maybe make more sense against an argument that Hagan was on the shortlist and should have been off the board long ago or was perceived in a particular way ... in any case some inspired some thoughts ... so there they are.