Jamal Murray overrated?

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Re: Jamal Murray overrated? 

Post#21 » by tsherkin » Mon May 20, 2024 2:41 pm

70sFan wrote:He is what he is - an excellent 2nd option but not a superstar. Just like we shouldn't have overreacted last year, we shouldn't now either.


I'm with this right here.

He's a good player and a valuable second option, just not a superstar. Which is fine, really. The Nuggets have a superstar. What they need is for the rest of the team to be contributing at key moments, and they lacked punch from guys like MPJ. Murray in this particular stretch had a great scoring night, outside of the 3rd quarter. This series could have been over in their favor if he had showed up earlier, though.
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Re: Jamal Murray overrated? 

Post#22 » by 70sFan » Mon May 20, 2024 3:03 pm

Peregrine01 wrote:
70sFan wrote:He is what he is - an excellent 2nd option but not a superstar. Just like we shouldn't have overreacted last year, we shouldn't now either.


Wonder where you’d place him on a list of guards?

Right now? Probably bottom of the top 10 if healthy without making an actual list? Definitely not all-nba guy.
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Re: Jamal Murray overrated? 

Post#23 » by Peregrine01 » Mon May 20, 2024 3:14 pm

70sFan wrote:
Peregrine01 wrote:
70sFan wrote:He is what he is - an excellent 2nd option but not a superstar. Just like we shouldn't have overreacted last year, we shouldn't now either.


Wonder where you’d place him on a list of guards?

Right now? Probably bottom of the top 10 if healthy without making an actual list? Definitely not all-nba guy.


I have it more or less similarly which means that it will be hard for him to make an all-star team when availability is considered.

Off the top of my head: Luka, Shai, Ant, Booker, Brunson, Haliburton, Curry, Kyrie and Mitchell are all a level above. And then you have Fox, Dame and Maxey where the separation is not as big but still seems to be a clear one.
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Re: Jamal Murray overrated? 

Post#24 » by 70sFan » Mon May 20, 2024 3:17 pm

Peregrine01 wrote:
70sFan wrote:
Peregrine01 wrote:
Wonder where you’d place him on a list of guards?

Right now? Probably bottom of the top 10 if healthy without making an actual list? Definitely not all-nba guy.


I have it more or less similarly which means that it will be hard for him to make an all-star team when availability is considered.

Off the top of my head: Luka, Shai, Ant, Booker, Brunson, Haliburton, Curry, Kyrie and Mitchell are all a level above. And then you have Fox, Dame and Maxey where the separation is not as big but still seems to be a clear one.

I don't think Kyrie and Haliburton are clearly ahead of Murray, the rest is fair. Dame had a down season, but should be up there. I'm not ready for Maxey to put him there.
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Re: Jamal Murray overrated? 

Post#25 » by OhayoKD » Mon May 20, 2024 3:17 pm

tsherkin wrote:
70sFan wrote:He is what he is - an excellent 2nd option but not a superstar. Just like we shouldn't have overreacted last year, we shouldn't now either.


I'm with this right here.

He's a good player and a valuable second option, just not a superstar. Which is fine, really. The Nuggets have a superstar. What they need is for the rest of the team to be contributing at key moments, and they lacked punch from guys like MPJ. Murray in this particular stretch had a great scoring night, outside of the 3rd quarter. This series could have been over in their favor if he had showed up earlier, though.

Jamal's 2 bad games were both massive blowout losses.
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
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Re: Jamal Murray overrated? 

Post#26 » by tsherkin » Mon May 20, 2024 3:20 pm

OhayoKD wrote:Jamal's 2 bad games were both massive blowout losses.


And?

EDIT: Sorry, that posted too fast.

IT isn't just about "bad" games, but the quieter ones as well. But like I also said, he's not really the focal problem for the roster.
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Re: Jamal Murray overrated? 

Post#27 » by OhayoKD » Mon May 20, 2024 3:21 pm

tsherkin wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:Jamal's 2 bad games were both massive blowout losses.


And?

And so they could still lose those games if he shows up
its my last message in this thread, but I just admit, that all the people, casual and analytical minds, more or less have consencus who has the weight of a rubberized duck. And its not JaivLLLL
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Re: Jamal Murray overrated? 

Post#28 » by RCM88x » Mon May 20, 2024 3:22 pm

Peregrine01 wrote:
70sFan wrote:
Peregrine01 wrote:
Wonder where you’d place him on a list of guards?

Right now? Probably bottom of the top 10 if healthy without making an actual list? Definitely not all-nba guy.


I have it more or less similarly which means that it will be hard for him to make an all-star team when availability is considered.

Off the top of my head: Luka, Shai, Ant, Booker, Brunson, Haliburton, Curry, Kyrie and Mitchell are all a level above. And then you have Fox, Dame and Maxey where the separation is not as big but still seems to be a clear one.


I feel like he was better than Fox and Maxey in the RS personally. But that's about where I'd rank him too. In the 2nd or 3rd tier of guards. Guy's who are clearly not 1st option material, but can still step it up in situations and play like near All-NBA guys for a series or playoff run.
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Re: Jamal Murray overrated? 

Post#29 » by tsherkin » Mon May 20, 2024 3:24 pm

OhayoKD wrote:
tsherkin wrote:
OhayoKD wrote:Jamal's 2 bad games were both massive blowout losses.


And?

And so they could still lose those games if he shows up


Ah, you found it before I edited.

Yes, it's possible that they still lose those games if he showed up. BUt he also had some quiet games in losses. They weren't "bad," just "not strong."

I wasn't guaranteeing anything, just noting that it was possible. But again, Murray wasn't the core issue with Denver. He was part of the problem. THat doesn't mean he couldn't have been better.
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Re: Jamal Murray overrated? 

Post#30 » by Peregrine01 » Mon May 20, 2024 3:24 pm

70sFan wrote:
Peregrine01 wrote:
70sFan wrote:Right now? Probably bottom of the top 10 if healthy without making an actual list? Definitely not all-nba guy.


I have it more or less similarly which means that it will be hard for him to make an all-star team when availability is considered.

Off the top of my head: Luka, Shai, Ant, Booker, Brunson, Haliburton, Curry, Kyrie and Mitchell are all a level above. And then you have Fox, Dame and Maxey where the separation is not as big but still seems to be a clear one.

I don't think Kyrie and Haliburton are clearly ahead of Murray, the rest is fair. Dame had a down season, but should be up there. I'm not ready for Maxey to put him there.


I have Maxey above because quickness is probably the most indispensable attribute for a guard and Maxey is one of the quickest while Murray is among the slowest. Murray's advantages are in how he uses screens and his movement shooting. He's more dependent on playing off another guy compared to other guards on this list who anchor their teams' offenses on their own.
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Re: Jamal Murray overrated? 

Post#31 » by The-Power » Mon May 20, 2024 3:42 pm

Murray is a good but not great player who performed better than his median performance in a couple of playoff runs and has therefore seen an undue boost in reputation by some parts of the basketball community.

To some extent, I do buy into the idea that his style of play is comparatively better suited for playoffs than the long regular season. At the same time, I also do believe that some people overrated how much he can ‘turn it on’ in the playoffs based on a limited sample.

I'm generally with 70sFan here. To me, there's no need to tear him down for his lackluster playoff run – just as there was no need to elevate him to undeserved heights after an extraordinary playoff run. But we all know that this kind of stance is going to be drowned out by hot takes and overreactions that dominate the broader discourse.
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Re: Jamal Murray overrated? 

Post#32 » by Owly » Mon May 20, 2024 5:16 pm

One_and_Done wrote:Eh. He had a mediocre playoffs by his standards, but Kobe has had plenty of series as bad. 20-6-4 on 47 TS% with a minor injury hampering him is still fine when you consider the quality of defense he faced. He'll bounce back and be an all-star next year probably.

Mediocre ... to my reading, tends to suggest bad side of middling.

Murray's playoffs, whether by the bar of this RS, previous playoffs or full career and perhaps in absolute terms, were probably close to just bad (especially so by the former two). It's his worst PER, WS/48 and BPM of any season, RS or playoffs and bar a weak rookie year it's an outlier worst. On-off type stuff will be super noisy in small samples but, for what it's worth, the trend holds for that too.

Slashlines across eras aren't a terribly fair means of comparison.

Now it is only one playoff run so the sample is pretty tiny. You correctly note injuries and playoff competition level varies significantly. People may vary in focus as to whether what happened is all that matters or if injury is a mitigating factor.


More generally ...
If one heavily bought into his playoffs previously this probably is a big blow to his stock as (after an RS leap) his playoffs was - with whatever context one wants to give - very substantially his worst. If one hasn't been so focused on that, he's just come off his clear best production-wise RS which if more indicative of improvement than luck might augur well. A less playoff orientated approach is perhaps less likely to think him overrated at this moment - being less high on him before and dropping him less now.

To "under" or "over" rated, that would depend on where one perceives him to be rated. I guess I'd be on the lower side but I haven't looked super closely nor would I have a great handle on where the consensus on him is.
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Re: Jamal Murray overrated? 

Post#33 » by DorianRo » Mon May 20, 2024 8:51 pm

I think hes underrated really.. Hes the straw that stirs the drink there. If he isn't playing well Nuggets are screwed. If hes playing big time ball, Denver is essentially unbeatable today. Jokic will give you consistency but Murray makes that engine run. Denver's success begins and ends with Murray. He just needs to develop consistency. Last year he was consistent, and Denver took it all. This year Denver struggled cause Murray disappeared for 2-3 games at a time (Mentally or injured whatever) but hes the X factor for that team
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Re: Jamal Murray overrated? 

Post#34 » by Owly » Mon May 20, 2024 9:42 pm

DorianRo wrote:I think hes underrated really.. Hes the straw that stirs the drink there. If he isn't playing well Nuggets are screwed. If hes playing big time ball, Denver is essentially unbeatable today. Jokic will give you consistency but Murray makes that engine run. Denver's success begins and ends with Murray. He just needs to develop consistency. Last year he was consistent, and Denver took it all. This year Denver struggled cause Murray disappeared for 2-3 games at a time (Mentally or injured whatever) but hes the X factor for that team

I'm not quite sure what you mean ...

There's one reading that just says "He's high variance." Where he can make or break you by hurting or harming a lot.

But I think it's possible there's an implication that he needs to be on court, that is primarily saying he's great "If he isn't playing well [not "If he's playing badly"] Nuggets are screwed", " Murray makes that engine run", "Denver's success begins and ends with Murray". And the idea that "he just needs to develop consistency" seems to imply that the high level is more real (or else the statement is he just needs to get better and more consistent) and could support that reading (ditto him being underrated). And I wonder if impact side data in terms of their splits would justify that sort of implication. But I can't be sure if that's intended and am not sure of the best source for those type of stats.

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